21 #FC琉球

Intro

The shoe is on the other foot this week as FC Ryukyu welcome in Omiya Ardija, a team they have had great success against in years past, and a team that is looking to exorcise those ghosts. The only thing standing between Ryukyu and history is a team that they have habitually beat, but one that won’t lay down so easy. And let’s not forget that Omiya already own a victory on Ryukyu soil.

Weather Forecast and Match Day Info
Match Day 5 Recaps
Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Omiya Ardija
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 6 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from FC Ryukyu

It will be slightly overcast and cool after the rain passes through which should make for some pleasant conditions to watch football. There is always a chance it rains here in Okinawa so be prepared.

There is no escaping the fact that Okinawa is in the midst of their third wave of COVID-19 infections. The number of infections have steadily increased since March 20th and though the club and the league are doing all they can to combat any outbreaks among the fans at games, we all need to do our part within and around the stadium (and possibly the days leading up to the game). Maintain the 2m social distancing guidelines – that means while waiting in line for food, drinks, merchandise, restroom facilities, and when entering and exiting the stadium – and continue to wear your masks when around others inside the grounds. I know this is easier said then done, especially when you have children in attendance, but until the prefecture can get a handle on the recent outbreak, we all run the risk of heading into another state of emergency and possibly games without fans.

Match Day 6 Information from the Club

2. Match Day 5 Recaps

JEF United Chiba 1-2 FC Ryukyu

Omiya Ardija 4-0 V-Varen Nagasaki

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: It has been a dream start of the season for Ryukyu, but the work is far from done. If you read the recap earlier this week then you know FC Ryukyu are on a historic pace. But you also know that Ryukyu own a dubious record in those columns as they are one of five teams to never achieve promotion after wining their first four games to start a season (2019). And now that list has shrunk to only one team out four who have failed to reach promotion after winning their first five games. I’d personally hate to see Ryukyu make it number two but that largely depends on winning the winnable, achieving the unbelievable, and maintaining the status quo at times. Something we have never been able to do in the two seasons we’ve spent in the J2.

The old adage is offense wins games, defense wins championships. That rings true more than you know these days as FC Ryukyu are winning games through defense which is largely attributed to the CB pairing of Okazaki and Chinen, and Taguchi in goal. The pair had a momentary slip up this past weekend but for the most part have been a fortress for a team that has been one of the worst defending sides in J2 the past two years. For his part, Taguchi is playing some of the best football imaginable. If you finally put a defense behind this offense, and that defense carries this side until that offense starts clicking, then you have the perfect recipe for success.

Heading into the JEF match I was concerned that Abe was going to miss time after a nasty looking injury forced him from the Nagasaki game. But Abe was back out there for the JF match and buried one of the best headers – from distance as well – that you will see this year. Shintaro Shimizu followed that up with his own header to put FC Ryukyu ahead for good just five minutes later. It has been a bit of a rough start to Kiyotake’s Ryukyu career though the LM does have an assist to his credit. You can tell he is slightly perturbed by his performances as he expects so much better of himself and hopefully the Omiya match will be the one that gets him firing.

Though we’d all love to see Kiyotake scoring multiple goals, I think his immediate contributions are more in line with providing quality deliveries to the attacking players. He is already heavily involved in the buildup play but he needs a few crosses to connect with Abe to gain the confidence that can propel Ryukyu even farther forward. So let us be honest, at this point in the season Ryukyu need confidence boosts as much as they need positive results. They have shown the ability to win while maintaining narrow leads as well as winning games when they need to come from behind. All that is left is to go out there each week and beat the teams they should beat.

FC Ryukyu remain consistent with this lineup selection in 2021 while Omiya has made several changes in recent weeks.

Omiya Ardija: This certainly isn’t the same Omiya side from last season, and it certainly isn’t the one that opened the season with a win followed by three consecutive losses. Omiya has really turned things on ever since the late loss to SC Sagamihara on match day three, and they are playing some inspired football at the moment.

Omiya was able to shrug off an early Mito goal on match day one by scoring two second half goals to go on and win. One of those goals came from Masaya Shibayama who is just 18 years old. Shibayama looked to be one of Omiya’s best players in the opening three fixtures but has since disappeared from the highlights and roster altogether. Omiya’s fortunes began a downward spiral when they lost their home opener to Ventforet Kofu 2-0 from two set piece goals. Things continued to look bad when at home to Kyoto Sanga the following week when Omiya conceded an early goal, but luckily some severe weather postponed the match before it gout out of control.

Ardija finally hit rock bottom against SC Sagamihara when they conceded two late goals to the hosts, which also happened to be SC Sagamihara’s only goals scored up to that point, and left Kanagawa prefecture utterly disappointed. But that is when something changed inside the club. I am not sure if it was due to a changing of personnel, or somehow Ken Iwase convinced these guys that they are far better than the overall standings state, and more importantly, they need to start believing it.

Though Omiya wasn’t able to defeat Kyoto in the replay, they looked a far different side than weeks past, and played much better. Omiya were relentless in the press and had multiple chances to win that game but couldn’t find the breakthrough. In an unfortunate set of events, Tomoki Ueda’s challenge on Peter Utaka inside the box led to the PK that ultimately sealed Omiya’s fate. The Omiya players were visibly frustrated at losing this close game, and to their credit, they rose up the following week against V-Varen Nagasaki.

Omiya were motivated and seemed to be hunting for goals in packs against Nagasaki. They opened the scoring early in the first half with Nermin Haskic scoring his second goal in as many games from a very nice header before completely decimating Nagasaki with another first half goal and two second half goals. It was Omiya’s best performance of the year by a mile.

Omiya are playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder these days and may even be viewing themselves as underdogs that lack the respect they are due from their opponent, the league and the media. The whole “us versus the world” mentality you often hear circulating around the sporting world. This is can be a very powerful mental tool that makes Omiya a very dangerous opponent on Saturday, but it is much harder to sustain in the long football season.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Bend don’t break. Likelihood 3. Omiya are just going for it these days which means they will likely come out fast, pile on the pressure in the attack, while pressing in defense, and look to jump out to an early lead over Ryukyu. For Ryukyu, they kind of trade possession and opportunities with their opponents this season in 15-minute chunks so they really need to respond to the early Omiya pressure just as they have done with their past five opponents. Ryukyu may have been fortunate enough to play sides who were too afraid to lose up to this point in season, but that is certainly not the case with Omiya these days who are playing like a cornered animal fighting for their very existence.

2. Quick short passes to break the Omiya high defensive line. Likelihood 4. Ryukyu had far too many turnovers at JEF last week when they were attempting to split the defense and start a counter from long passes emanating in our end. They really need Abe and his hold up play this week so as to get the 3 attacking midfielders involved on the quick breaks.

3. Set pieces could make all the difference. Likelihood 2. One of FC Ryukyu’s strengths this year has been scoring from crosses into the box. Just look at last week against JEF when they scored two to win. However, Omiya has yet to conceded a single goal from a cross but are extremely vulnerable on set pieces. Omiya conceded 3 goals from set pieces in two consecutive games against Kofu and SC Sagamihara, but on the other hand, Ryukyu have yet to score a single goal from a set piece this season. Right now, the Ryukyu attack flows through the midfield and they could very well end up meeting a brick wall when they attempt these types of crosses into the box that have made them so successful this year. Hopefully Uesato or Koki can hit one from a free kick, or Ryukyu can score from a corner to penetrate the Omiya defense.

5. Prediction

FC Ryukyu have won three of the four games they’ve played against Omiya. Last year FC Ryukyu completely blanked Omiya to the tune of 8 goals scored, 0 conceded in their two games. Ryukyu have scored multiple goals against Omiya every time with the lowest score line of any of these matches being just 3 total goals scored on match day 30 last year.

Omiya took the mid week loss to Kyoto Sanga FC pretty hard but responded really well when they dispatched V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 this past weekend. I don’t think we’ll see the goal scoring bonanzas we have come to enjoy when these two sides meet, instead, I think this ends in a spirited 2-2 draw where Ryukyu concede multiple goals for the first time all season. Season Record 3-0-2.

6. Match Day 6 in J2

As it is likely that (1) Albirex Niigata continue their winning ways over (17) SC Sagamihara this week, the only real questions are: 1.) Can (2) FC Ryukyu hold serve over (10) Omiya Ardija? 2.) Can (19) V-Varen Nagasaki rebound at home to (4) Ventforet Kofu who are also looking to rebound from their recent loss to (8) FC Machida Zelvia? 3.) And finally, can (4) Blaublitz Akita continue their hot start over the extremely low scoring (21) Matsumoto Yamaga FC?

7. Conclusion

Can FC Ryukyu make history by winning their 6th consecutive game or will they fall victim to a team that they should beat on paper? Either way, it is another early test for this side in what is shaping up to be a promising season here in Okinawa. This should be a very electric contest with both teams trading chances on the counter attack so sit back and enjoy.

Match Day 5 Preview: (11) JEF United Chiba vs (2) FC Ryukyu 3/27/21 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu are off to a dream start in 2021 but much like 2019, JEF United Chiba will look to put a quick stop to Ryukyu’s momentum. I certainly did not see Ryukyu achieving four wins from four at the start of the season and was rather content when they had won three in a row to open the campaign. I think Ryukyu took advantage of a strong V-Varen Nagasaki side that are simply struggling to put all the pieces together at the moment but, Ryukyu also looked really good in doing so. However, JEF is another set of obstacles altogether as of all the teams in J2, JEF really has Ryukyu’s number.

Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 4 Recaps
Team Previews
- JEF United Chiba
- FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information

No complaints here. Looks like a lovely day for football.

Match Day Information from JEF United Chiba Website

2. Match Day 4 Recaps

Matsumoto Yamaga FC 0-1 JEF United Chiba

FC Ryukyu 3-1 V-Varen Nagasaki

3. Team Previews

JEF United Chiba: Where to begin? A team that has a long history? Yes. A team that has a recent history of success against FC Ryukyu? Yes. An organization and fan base with lofty expectations due to that lengthy history but always seem to fall short of expectations? Yes. Has JEF looked good in the 4 games leading up to this match? Not particularly. Can we say the same thing every time leading up to FC Ryukyu facing off with JEF, and yet Ryukyu still manage to lose? Unfortunately yes!

JEF are quite possibly the longest running joke in J2 for some of their past antics but whenever they play Ryukyu all of that is thrown out the window. A side by side comparison shows us that JEF owns roughly the same amount of possession in their past 4 games that Ryukyu’s opponents achieved (54%). However, FC Ryukyu are out shooting JEF by nearly 4 shots per game with at least 2 more of those shots being on target.

JEF has begun 2021 with one win, two draws and one loss under second year manager Jong-hwan Moon. When JEF opened the season at home against Kofu they displayed a bit of lackluster defending that allowed Kofu the freedom of movement and space to grab the early opener. JEF responded with a goal in the second half when Keita Buwanika rose high above the Kofu defense to bury a header. JEF then conceded a late PK but the goalie was able to stop the shot to keep the score line level. JEF were able to grab the early lead the following week at Ehime when defender Daisuke Suzuki sent a thunderous header past the Ehime keeper. But JEF allowed Ehime to hang around all game and once again the defense let them down when they needed them the most.

On match day 3 Blaublitz Akita came to Chiba and absolutely put it on JEF winning 2-0. JEF missed some chances during their counter attacks but they had no idea on how to break down the Akita defense despite the lopsided possession totals favoring JEF 71/39. JEF grabbed their first win of 2021 when they traveled to Matsumoto Yamaga FC by eking out a 1-0 victory in some rather poor conditions.

Averaging less than a goal a game, JEF are not a particularly strong team when you look at their results to date. They’ve only played one game this year when they had less than 50% possession but they are not doing much when they do have the ball. Against Ehime and Akita they were able to muster 10 total shots in each contest but were held to 5 against the stronger Kofu and Yamaga sides. JEF neither controls games or imposes their will on their opposition. They simply hope for breakthroughs to put themselves level or into the lead.

There is little doubt that JEF will want to start fast against Ryukyu by controlling a majority of the possession and chances, but this plays directly into Ryukyu’s strength as they are content on striking teams on the counter. And I am not sure JEF has the firepower to catch up to Ryukyu if they push the score line above 1 goal on Saturday.

FC Ryukyu: The Ryukyu match with Nagasaki was bittersweet. First, Ryukyu looked good allowing the game to come to them and hitting Nagasaki on the counter. Second, they defended well as a unit. But in the end, Ryukyu lost Abe to injury, and have no idea on his status, which could derail the momentum Ryukyu have built up in their first four games.

A lot of talk coming out of the club by the players and manager emphasize that they are not really focused on trying to control games with large amounts of possession like they did last year. Instead, Ryukyu are content on hitting their opponents with counter attacks. This is where Abe will be missed the most as his holdup play as an outlet valve for the team has been phenomenal this year. A lot of Ryukyu counterattacks started and ended with Abe. I am not sure who will step up in his place as he is not easily replaceable. Shintaro Shimizu is the likely candidate as he is the youngest of the 3 remaining strikers that Higuchi dresses each week. There is also an outside chance that Higuchi moves Ikeda into the FWD role but that would mean dressing a new midfielder for the first time all season. And Ryukyu do not have many choices at the moment.

Ramon is likely out a few more weeks while he deals with a soft tissue injury and Nakagawa may not be match fit yet. The only healthy options are Yu Tomidokoro or Shunsuke Motegi. But neither is a true CAM so I think Higuchi needs to stick with Ikeda at CAM and make the adjustment at FWD. There are the remote possibilities of of swapping Shimizu and Ikeda, bringing Tanaka up to RM – pushing Koya to CAM – and starting Makito Uheara at RB. But Higuchi could just as easily dress Hitomi if he thinks that neither Shintaro, Akamine, or Uehara can withstand the rigors of 60 minutes in the starting role.

Ryukyu should remain unchanged behind the front four with Uesato, Koki, Numata, Tanaka, Chinen, and Okazaki. These guys have been great at closing down shooting lanes, stifling the opposition’s attack, and will once again be called upon to do so with what may turn out to be a muted offensive performance by Ryukyu on Saturday. And yet, there are even more injuries that Ryukyu need to contend with.

Dany Carvajal recently went under the knife to repair some stress fractures to his lower leg and will be away from the team for 3-4 months. This means that Tsumita becomes the backup to Taguchi and I hope that he can push Taguchi the way Dany did in practice as we cannot afford for Taguchi to become complacent between the sticks when there are some winnable games on the horizon.

The JEF United Chiba game doesn’t represent a ‘must win’ game in the true sense. It is more for the Ryukyu psyche than anything. JEF are one of six teams – Iwata being the other but Ryukyu have already beat them this year – that FC Ryukyu have never defeated during their time in the J2. You’ve probably heard me say this on a few occasions, to include the fact that they have never scored a single goal against JEF in their entire history, and that is what makes this game so important to Ryukyu. Even more so when you consider that Higuchi’s goal for the season is 80 points for the club. While Ryukyu are a long way off from that total right now, and in spite of the fact of JEF sitting well below Ryukyu in the standings, any points earned in this game will fall squarely inside the Points Over Expectation Table.

It isn’t always about defeating an opponent that is stronger than you on paper that determines the strength of a side. Sometimes it is overcoming the mental hurdles and past failures that can make all the difference. And while that variable isn’t easily quantifiable, it is vitally important for Ryukyu’s overall success.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. It doesn’t matter how JEF have performed the past 4 rounds. It doesn’t matter how Ryukyu have performed the past 4 rounds. Prepare better than JEF. Execute better than JEF. Show the mental resolve to dig this one out. Overcome the challenges that have plagued us in the past and slay this beast once and for all.

5. Prediction

I do not expect Ryukyu to go out there and light up JEF, as they’ve never done that before despite JEF doing some pretty calamitous stuff throughout the years. Predicting a win in spite of the records is even bolder but that is what I am going to do as this isn’t the same team from 2019 or 2020. 1-0 in favor of FC Ryukyu. It won’t be pretty but it will be effective. Season Record 2-0-2.

6. Match Day 5 in J2

(3) Ventforet Kofu hosting (10) FC Machida Zelvia and (8) Montedio Yamagata against (9) Fagiano Okayama stand out as the two fixtures with the most top half, and promotion, implications this round. Not to be outdone, (4) Zweigen Kanazawa and (5) Blaublitz Akita, will look to continue their hot starts to 2021. This will be Akita’s first home game of the 2021 season and quite possibly their toughest fixture to date. Elsewhere there are some bottom of the table clashes that could have big impacts for these clubs late in the year.

No J2 action this weekend as the J-League International YouTube channel will broadcast a Levain Cup match between Tokushima Vortis and Oita Trinita.

YouTube Broadcast: Tokushima Vortis vs Oita Trinita

7. Conclusion

In 2019, it was JEF who ended Ryukyu’s unbeaten run of 6 games to open the season. Then they defeated Ryukyu to open the 2020 season. You know all the history between these two clubs. Well then…

Match Day 4 Preview: (2) FC Ryukyu vs (10) V-Varen Nagasaki 3/20/21 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu will look to continue their fast start when they welcome in V-Varen Nagasaki this weekend. Ryukyu are in the midst of their longest winning streak in two seasons, while Nagasaki are looking to rebound from a rough start to the season. The match for FC Ryukyu is certainly their toughest to date, but at this point, a majority of the matches in the opening quarter of the season represent their own unique set of ‘firsts.’ First game of the year with a newly formed team; first road game; first game against a tougher opponent; first game against a weaker opponent; first game playing from a deficit; first game coming off a loss; and so on. Some may wonder if this Ryukyu side is for real. Well, we should have some idea at the end of this round.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Match Day 3 Recaps
Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information

Possibly the best weather forecast for Ryukyu this season. Slightly overcast, but the off chance it rains once again. Be prepared either way.

FC Ryukyu Match Day Information : The link will provide all the information you need if you plan on attending.

2. Match Day 3 Recap

Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-2 FC Ryukyu

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Ehime FC

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: When your team is on a 3-game winning streak, it is hard to find many faults as they’ve risen to the occasion every single time. Look no further than FC Ryukyu’s total time playing with a lead compared to playing from behind. 227 minutes played while leading, 64 minutes at an even score line, 0 minutes playing from behind. Granted, when you score two goals in the opening minute of two consecutive games that number is naturally going to be inflated. But they still kept Iwata and Gunma completely off the score sheet and prevented Renofa from scoring in the final 38 minutes.

In 2019, 5 of Ryukyu’s 13 wins came in the form of a shutout. That number jumped to 10 out of 14 in 2020. That can be attributed to the difference in the amount of goals conceded between those two seasons and so far Ryukyu are off to their best start defensively of any season in the J2. And that, as I stated in the first preview of 2021, will be the telling sign for the overall fate of the team this year. There is no doubt that Chinen benefited from his first season at the J2 level last year, and somehow, Okazaki has started to put it all together after what seemed to be a career trending in the wrong direction. At least for now we haven’t seen the poor judgement, consistently out of position play that plagued us at the back for much of the past few seasons.

Abe will continue to get his goals and eventually Ryukyu will start to dictate games from their mid-field, but for now, they are winning through defense. Even more so, they are winning with the same combination of players. Ryukyu remained roughly in tact through the transfer window despite the departures of Koizumi and Kawai that many expected and maybe, just maybe, these players have the experience required in Higuchi’s system to make some real noise in the J2 this year.

When you view the lineup each week you wonder how some of the better players are left off the bench, but I would argue that the sum of this team is much greater than the individual parts. In 2019, we had talented players in Suzuki, Nakagawa, and Uejo. In 2020, it was Abe, Koya, Koizumi and Kawai. But this side could never put it all together on both ends of the pitch. Perhaps the end of 2020 – with Taguchi, Tanaka, Okazaki, and Chinen starting – was actually the beginning of what Higuchi had hoped to create all these years. And now we are seeing the benefits of playing as team rather than a group of talented individuals.

V-Varen Nagasaki: I am happy to welcome in Daniel, author of the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog, for this week’s preview. Daniel has been one of the best English bloggers out there these past few years and his weekly previews/reviews are a must follow. So there is no better source on the state of Nagasaki and what we can expect from them this round.

Q. Great to talk with you once again my friend. I know things haven’t gone according to plan so far, but I guess that comes with the territory when there are high expectations surrounding the team. Personally, I think Nagasaki are too good of a team to be down for to long, and I also fear them busting out in a big way this week, but it seems they were a bit frustrated in the attack last week against Ehime. What do you think is holding them back?

A. Thanks for having me again, Geoff! Especially in the game against Ehime and even in the win against Kanazawa, the poor usage with our chances was the biggest issue. Had V-Varen won this game 4-1, I do not think anyone could have said that it was undeserved because we really were dominant for most of the game and only allowed Ehime to have four shots on target, of which two came in the moment they scored their goal. I am quite confident that we can turn this problem around as there are many decent offensive players in the squad and some of them (Edigar Junio, Ibarbo, Yamazaki) have yet to make an appearance this season.

What may be the bigger issue, is some of the decisions made by the new manager, Takayuki Yoshida. His substitutions have had a rather negative impact in every game so far. Against Niigata, players were all over the place, but not in the positions in which they have played their best football in the past. Against Ehime, we needed to score another goal and the team kept on attacking, but from the moment Caio and Togashi were subbed, V-Varen lost their momentum. I also wasn’t a big fan of the formation he used in Niigata.

Q. We are not even remotely close to the ¼ mark of the season, but what is your impression of Nagasaki through their first 3 games?

A. Overall, quite positive. Defensively, I think we may be even better than last season. The team was a bit unlucky in the situations that lead to Niigata’s and Ehime’s goals and in general, our opponents have had very few decent chances. Offensively, we just need to start scoring. The chances have been there already, the players just need to take them.

Q. I see that the formation changes week-to-week under Yoshida and that Luan has played across 3-MF positions already. This has to be somewhat unsettling for the players in the squad. In your opinion, is Yoshida attempting to bend the squad around his preferred 3-4-2-1, or is he coming around to utilizing the players that he inherited in their natural positions?

A. The formations used against Kanazawa and Ehime were quite similar – with four defenders and one target man up front. Just the midfield was arranged differently. Against Niigata, however, V-Varen started with five defenders and that meant that Yoshida replaced an attacking player with a central defender. Defensively, it worked well considering that Niigata only had a couple of chances from open play and they were shots from about 15-20 meters out, but offensively, the team was not able to really bother Albirex. Also, V-Varen have been very good defensively with four defenders (only 39 goals conceded last season), so I did not think it was necessary to weaken the offense just to have an extra defender on the pitch. And it became worse with all the substitutions in this game.

Luan started on the left, then moved into the center and finished the game on the right. Otake has played in right midfield or behind the striker for most of his career, but when he came off the bench against Niigata, he played on the left. Sawada, a winger, is very good going one-on-one and can take on several defenders, but Yoshida brought him on as left back and had him sit back as protection in case Albirex would go on a counter attack. Akino is a defensive midfielder and he is the best passer on the squad and has initiated many attacks with long balls, but he finished the game as central defender. Meanwhile, Shinzato, a central defender, played most of the second half as defensive midfielder.

None of this made sense to me and I was shocked by how the manager, who already spent last season with the team and should know the players’ strengths, just shifted them back and forth and into (for them) untypical positions. I hope the Niigata game is a one-off because to me it was chaotic. In the end, it all goes back to the question of whether a managerial change was necessary or not and if different tactics are needed. The team collected 80 points last season and finished with a goal difference of +27. I understand that every manager wants to implement his own ideas, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! V-Varen have a very decent squad and almost all key players remained at the club. If Yoshida can get his tactics sorted, we have a very good chance for promotion.

Q. Nagasaki is still waiting on some reinforcements who haven’t entered the country yet correct? Where do you think they will fit in?

A. As of now, all players, who are under contract, are there, but Edigar Junio and Victor Ibarbo arrived in Nagasaki relatively late and they have not been included in a matchday squad so far. Once he is ready to go, Edigar Junio should be our first-choice striker and from the comments I saw on Twitter, many in our community expect him to score 15-20 goals. As for Ibarbo, it is complicated. He was supposed to be one of the best players in the league as well, but last season only got six starts. I can only guess that he did not put in enough work in training to deserve more playing time, but he still made quite an impact with one goal or assist every 116 minutes of playing time. If he is ready to go to work, he is also a candidate for a starting role, but I think that is a big “IF”.

The club is also still trying to sign a winger called Wellington Rato from Brazilian Serie A team Atletico Goianiense and their president said last week, that V-Varen had matched the transfer/loan fee requested by Atletico, but a few days later he said that the deal was off due to a disagreement regarding the payment, which V-Varen apparently requested to split into two instalments. A few months ago, V-Varen were also trying to sign Winger Jaroensak Wonggorn from Thai League team, Samut Prakan City, but the clubs could not come to an agreement. However, last week there was news about V-Varen and a few J1 clubs, including Kashima, still being interested in him.

Q. Who has been the best Nagasaki player to date?

A. First name that comes to mind is Cayman Togashi. He works relentlessly and got his first goal of the season against Ehime. The second player is Luan and I think he will also play a big role throughout the season. He accumulated six goals and three assists last year while only playing 1084 minutes. That means he contributed a goal or assist every 120 minutes of playing time. In my Season Preview I mentioned him as candidate for team MVP and I think his ambition needs to be a candidate for league MVP.

Q. For some unknown reason V-Varen Nagasaki always seem to be a team that FC Ryukyu play well against. We’ve traded 3-2 home wins in 2019, then drew during the monsoon last year, and then ended with the 1-0 win in Nagasaki that dented your promotion hopes last year. In our case, we sometimes (on rare occasion) play up to our competition, but mostly we play down to lower competition. What do you think is the case when Nagasaki face Ryukyu?

A. What I noticed is that six of the seven goals FC Ryukyu scored against us in the past two seasons came in the 69^th minute or later. V-Varen are not a team that concedes particularly many goals late in games, but even when we were up 3:0 in the first meeting of 2019, you guys still scored two beautiful goals in the final ten minutes and gave us quite a scare. Last season, when many teams just sat back against V-Varen and waited for counter attacks, FC Ryukyu were willing to take a risk and attack and they rewarded themselves with four points. So, I think that FCR just have a stubbornness and mental strength to them, which has helped them to surprise V-Varen and capitalize on their mistakes in the past four meetings between the two.

Q. What are your thoughts/predictions for this week’s game?

A. Before I started working on this preview, my prediction was a 1:0 win to Nagasaki, but because of what I just wrote in my reply to the previous question, I feel like we are going to need a two-goal lead in order to finally get an away win against you and that will be difficult. I expect both teams to have 15-20 strong minutes in each half and it is probably going to end in a 1-1 draw.

It was great to reconnect Daniel, I wish the best for you and your team this year -just not this week- and look forward to seeing Nagasaki in the thick of the promotion race. Cheers!

Thank you, too, Geoff. I really enjoyed answering your questions and am looking forward to a decent game. Good luck to you guys for the rest of the season!

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. V-Varen is extremely good at sucking defenders deep into their own box before finding an outlet pass to an unmarked player near the top. They also seem to have guys flying into the box from all directions when they are in possession at the opponent’s end. The outcome of this game hinges on our 2 central midfielders’ ability to track, and close down, those runs and crosses.

2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. Echoing what Daniel said about Nagasaki’s defense limiting their opponent’s scoring chances, Ryukyu will need to be lethal from limited chances. Ryukyu are not even close to maintaining the same levels of possession they enjoyed last year so quick counters, and finishing those counters, will be key. Hopefully all of those near misses the past few weeks will start to fall for Ryukyu.

5. Prediction

This is definitely a statement game for FC Ryukyu as well as a chance for V-Varen Nagasaki to right the ship. As Daniel mentioned, these two sides share a unique history especially when it comes to late goals scored by FC Ryukyu, but last week against Gunma was the first time all year that Ryukyu scored in the second half. Factoring in Daniel’s perspective for how Nagasaki are better defensively than last year, and limit scoring chances for their opponents, Ryukyu may have few scoring opportunities on Saturday. A 1-goal loss to Nagasaki would be considered respectable, any type of points earned by Ryukyu will fall into the green section of the Points over Expectation table I produce for each Match Report. I think Ryukyu put up a fight, but ultimately fall 2-1 to Nagasaki. Season Record 2-0-1.

6. Match Day 4 in J2

Another interesting round of fixtures with Niigata looking to extend their undefeated streak to 4 when they host Gunma, and then there are plenty of teams sitting just outside the top two who have a good shot at improving their position in the table based on their matchups this round.

J-League Int’l Free YouTube Broadcast: SC Sagamihara v Omiya Ardija

7. Conclusion

Thank you to Johnny (gambaosakaenglish.blog) and Daniel for their contributions to the preview this week. Their input has been invaluable and if you are not already following these two, you need to be.

Pretender or Contender? That is what we want to know about Ryukyu. Time to go out there and make a statement.

Match Day 3 Preview: (7) Thespakusatsu Gunma v (2) FC Ryukyu 3/14/21 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu marches North for the first time this season where they will take on Thespakusatsu Gunma. Gunma are a team they traded 1-0 away wins with last season, and who finished just 1 point behind FC Ryukyu in the standings. In their first meeting since FC Ryukyu lifted the J3 trophy against Gunma in 2018, FC Ryukyu beat Gunma 1-0 on Match Day 12 with a very uninspiring performance. Gunma returned the favor on Match Day 26 with an equally uninspiring effort to beat FC Ryukyu 1-0 in Okinawa. Whereas FC Ryukyu enter the match riding a 2-game win streak, Gunma are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw on the road at SC Sagamihara. For Ryukyu, this is a very important match as the 3 points would push their point total to 9 right before a very tough stretch of games. For Gunma, their opening schedule of fixtures, and perceived potential points accumulated in those fixtures, is vital for their survival.

Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 2 Recap
Team Previews
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
- FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information

Slightly colder than what we’ve been experiencing down here in Okinawa.

FC Ryukyu fans will be allowed to attend the match, and the link below contains the necessary information as far as hanging banners and match watching etiquette.

MD3 Info From Thespakusatsu Gunma’s Official Site

2. Match Day 2 Recap

SC Sagamihara 0-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma

FC Ryukyu 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi FC

3. Team Previews

Thespakusatsu Gunma: Just like FC Ryukyu, Gunma have a favorable schedule to open the 2021 season. But Gunma’s schedule is far more front loaded than Ryukyu’s. Gunma started with the newly promoted J3 teams, Akita and Sagamihara in consecutive weeks earning 4 points; take on FC Ryukyu this week; face current leaders Niigata the following week, and then play Kitakyushu. Gunma’s only ‘tough’ opponents over the next month include Niigata and Nagasaki, as they have Ehime, Renofa and Fagiano to round out the fixture list through April. But you could even extended their fortunes into May with some of their opponents current form. All told, this is a crucial part of Gunma’s season that could very well determine their fate by seasons end.

Gunma need to embark on a ‘smash and grab’ campaign these first 3 months of the season to ensure their survival, though at least at this point in the season based on results and performance of some teams, Gunma have one of the best opening and closing schedules of any team trying to stave off relegation. Despite the favorable scheduling, Gunma have been unable to take full advantage of the fixture list. They defeated Akita at home 2-1 to open 2021, but then dropped a vital 2 points against Sagamihara when they limped to a 0-0 draw this past weekend.

Gunma started off fast against Akita with an opening goal from a CK in the 4th minute but then allowed Akita to dictate much of the game before making it all square with an early contender for goal of the year from Akita. Unfortunately for Akita they let Gunma hang around until Gunma went ahead for good in the 83rd minute after a nice set of passes opened up Akita at the back. Sagamihara put up a fight in their game with Gunma, came close on a few occasions, but so did Gunma when they hit the framework on multiple occasions. Neither side could crack the back line and the game ended in a draw with Gunma coming out on the losing end of the points dropped. A scene we were all to familiar with here at Ryukyu last year.

FC Ryukyu: Dressing the same 18 players from the previous week, FC Ryukyu jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Renofa Yamaguchi before hanging on for a 2-1 win. There were some signs of life from the offense against Renofa compared to Match Day 1 against Jubilo where there was almost none, but we still need to see more from a team built on attacking football. Ryukyu enjoyed an uptick in possession last week, and it was good to see Abe get back on the scoresheet; Kiyotake and Koya becoming more involved in the attack; and seeing Keita Tanaka grab his second point – first goal – of the 2021 season. But there were plenty of missed chances, and close calls that prevented Ryukyu from pushing the score line even higher.

Ren Ikeda maintained his grip on the starting CAM role but we have to wonder when Kazaki Nakagawa will finally get a crack at the position. Ryukyu had acres of space to operate on the Renofa flanks, but lacked any serious thrust down the middle. I think this is where Nakagawa thrives, and is what we saw from Ryukyu last year when Koizumi was marshalling the attack. All we have seen to date from the club is highlights of Nakagawa looking fit in training videos, but he has yet to even dress in the reserves. I hope we didn’t acquire his services as a mere insurance policy in the event of injuries this year as he is to good of a player to be left off the squad.

Which brings us to the reserves that Higuchi chooses each match. Counting Abe, Ryukyu have dressed, and played, four forwards each week. And they all come on at roughly the same time, for the same exact players. We already know what Abe and Shinya Uehara bring to the attack as forwards, but we then ask Akamine and Shintaro to play out wide when they come on for Koya and Kiyotake. I have no idea what Ryukyu intend to do when the Thai and Vietnamese reinforcements arrive later this year as they will join fellow talented midfielders, Kazaki, Motegi, and Ramon, out in the cold.

The lone mid-field substitute utilized by Higuchi is Ichimaru who usually comes on late in games for either Uesato or Koki. This means that Yu Tomidokoro, and the single defensive player we dress, Makito Uehara, end up as unused subs. Perhaps there is some contractional obligations at work which could force FC Ryukyu to pay some players a higher wage based on minutes played, but I really have no clue.

The formula has worked twice so far so I wouldn’t expect any changes to lineup or reserves this week.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. There is no game to date that requires another fast start from FC Ryukyu. We cannot afford to let Gunma hang around in a close game as they can find ways to dig out results. So it is best to put this one away before things become too stressful near the end. But we are also playing on the road for the first time this year so anything could happen.

2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. It may not be the usual candidates who pull this one out for Ryukyu, so that means it may fall upon the shoulders of a non-prolific goal scorer. Koki banging in a few from set pieces, or Uesato, or even Ichimaru is a strong possibility. It could also come from set pieces by our defenders, either way I’ll take it. Someone needs to step up here because if they do, then we will start seeing the pieces of a complete team coming together, something we haven’t seen since 2018.

5. Prediction

This could be a potential trap game for FC Ryukyu as even though they look to be the better side, they have a tendency to play down to their opponent. FC Ryukyu improved their road win total from 2019 to 2020 (5 wins in 2019, 7 wins in 2020), but are a very streaky team when traveling. In 2019, they won their first road game but didn’t win on the road again until Match Day 35. In 2020, they needed 5 road games to achieve their first win. So if anything, this is the ideal first road test for FC Ryukyu. The away team has won 3 out of the last 4 matches, only 1 game has ever exceeded more than 2 goals scored, and the home team has been shutout on 3 occasions. It won’t be pretty, but I think FC Ryukyu can complete the trifecta with a 2-1 gritty win. Season Record 1-0-1.

6. Match Day 3 in J2

No single fixture stands out this week with many teams still searching for answers, while others are looking to put some distance between themselves and their opponents at either end of the table. Unfortunately for any neutral fans, all the games kickoff at the exact same time on both days.

7. Conclusion

Well, here it is. A very important match for FC Ryukyu early on this season and one that we may look back come November as one that determined the fate of this club. Earning 9 points out of the gate is massive considering their upcoming fixtures. Aside from Ryukyu’s next 3 opponents – Nagasaki, JEF, and Omiya- Ryukyu then face Mito, Verdy, Zelvia and Kofu before finally getting to SC Sagamihara. We know Ryukyu have never earned a single point from either JEF or Kofu and were swept by Zelvia last season, meaning 3 points on Sunday will go a long way to future J2 football. Ryukyu showed signs of improvement in each of their last two games, can they continue that progress with a third win in a row over Gunma?

Match Day 2 Preview: (8) FC Ryukyu vs (13) Renofa Yamaguchi FC 3/6/21 #FC琉球

Intro

It is to early to say FC Ryukyu are off to a fast, but I would say they got off on the right foot. Their 1-0 win over Jubilo Iwata last week, while unexpected, has set FC Ryukyu up for what could be a nice start when considering their next two opponents, Renofa and Gunma. 9 points from 9 would be a very nice floor from the bottom, but first thing first, they need to get the job done against Renofa this Saturday.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Match Day 1 Recap
Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Prediction
Match Day 2 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information from the Club

Though it says it will be overcast the whole match, there is a chance of rain. And if we learned anything from last week, even if there is a 1-2% chance of rain, be prepared for the worst. Bring the poncho, umbrellas, and plastic coverings to keep your stuff dry in the event it does rain on Saturday.

Match Day 2 Info: Normal stuff, but good info nonetheless. Also, there is no away fans allowed yet and the club made it a point to mention NOT WEARING VISITOR SUPPORT GOODS during the match. This was a change from last week when some fans were seen wearing Iwata kits and other items inside the AA section of the stadium. The club is probably looking to avoid any problems with the league so please comply, even if you’re from Yamaguchi and living in Okinawa.

Match Day 2 Info

2. Match Day 1 Recap

FC Ryukyu 1-0 Jubilo Iwata

Renofa Yamaguchi 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga FC

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: A couple of questions we were wondering about were answered this past Sunday when FC Ryukyu defeated Jubilo Iwata. First, Junto Taguchi has become the clear cut FC Ryukyu #1 GK. Second, Tetsuya Chinen looked good in place of Yong Jick at CB. That still leaves us wondering about the statuses of Nakagawa and Motegi, both healthy (?) scratches. Ikeda did get the first goal of the season for FC Ryukyu, but if you recall, Ikeda scored a few goals early in 2020 before embarking on a 32 game goalless streak where he was ultimately replaced by Yoshio Koizumi. I truly didn’t see enough of Kiyotake to make any judgement calls just yet, so that is something I will focus on this weekend as I thought Motegi may have earned his starting spot back at LM.

Then there was the decision to dress 4 Forwards instead of any of the abovementioned midfielders. Obviously everything worked out in the end, but I think FC Ryukyu will have a better chance at controlling the tempo of this game, so we may see a different lineup on Saturday. Then again, we may not as Higuchi likes to stick with players long after he should have swapped them out.

FC Ryukyu Injuries: None listed at the time of publication.

Renofa Yamaguchi FC: I am not sure there are to many teams in J2 that had a higher turnover of personnel than Renofa did this offseason. It looks like they brought in 19 new players, while clearing another 17 off their books. Perhaps this isn’t the same team as the past few seasons, but there is no telling that any of the changes in personnel have made an impact at this point in the season. Despite some of the recent woes by Renofa, they own a pretty decent record against FC Ryukyu the past 2 seasons. They have an even 2-1-2 record, that includes the 2019 Emperors Cup match, and one of those wins was a 4-1 blowout of Ryukyu last year. Here is another interesting fact, in the past 5 meetings between these two teams dating back to 2019, FC Ryukyu has scored first in every game. With 3 of those goals occurring inside the first 15 minutes (2′,7′ & 15′).

In their last game with Matsumoto, it was Renofa who got off to a fast start but failed to crack the goal despite Yuki Kasano finding himself alone with only the keeper to beat in the 80′ minute. Then there was the almost win on the last play of the match where it looked like Renofa had scored the winner, only for it to be ruled out on a hand ball. We should expect a fast start from both of these teams on Saturday, with Ryukyu a good bet to score first.

Renofa Yamaguchi FC Injuries: Starting attacking mid-fielder Yatsunori Shimaya injured some ligaments in his ankle and will be out 4 weeks.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Better Mid-Field Play: Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu couldn’t control the tempo of the game last week, and there were to many easy turnovers committed to prevent the offense from getting into a sort of rhythm. That needs to change this week.

2. Get Abe Firing: Likelihood 4. I know you’ve heard me say this before, but he is a player that can quickly change the fortunes of this team when he is firing on all cylinders. He couldn’t do much in last week’s game, but I can see that changing on Saturday.

5. Prediction

Season Record to Date: 0-0-1. I think FC Ryukyu come out firing, and continue to fire throughout the match. 3-1 win for FC Ryukyu on Saturday.

6. Match Day 2 in J2

There is an interesting mix of games this week featuring several matchups against the early season promotion candidates, and those seeking to avoid relegation. First up, and probably the matchup of the week is (1) Albirex Niigata hosting (7) V-Varen Nagasaki. Next we have (2) Tokyo Verdy hosting (9) Montedio Yamagata; then there is (3) Kyoto Sanga FC welcoming in (13) Matsumoto Yamaga FC. The (6) Omiya Ardija v (12) Ventforet Kofu should be a tightly contested affair, and then we all want to see how (18) Jubilo Iwata responds after their loss to FC Ryukyu when they face (11) FC Machida Zelvia at home.

(5) Thespakusatsu Gunma, like Ryukyu, will want to continue their fast start – as well as create a cushion between the bottom teams and themselves- when they travel to (20) SC Sagamihara. The other games with some early relegation implications are (22) Ehime FC hosting (10) JEF UTD Chiba; (21) Giravanz Kitakyushu v (16) Mito Hollyhock; and (19) Tochigi SC against (15) Blaublitz Akita.

YouTube Broadcast: LIVE | Tokyo Verdy vs Montedio Yamagata | Matchweek 2 | 2021 | J2 LEAGUE – YouTube

7. Conclusion

It is to early to deem this game a must win, or even a should win game for FC Ryukyu, but it is a winnable game nonetheless. Three points on Saturday will go a long way come the end of the season and FC Ryukyu need this win with games against Nagasaki, JEF and Omiya on the horizon.

Match Day 1 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs Jubilo Iwata 2/28/2021#FC琉球 #ジュビロ磐田

Intro

Welcome back! And it is really good to be back. The crazy 2020 season meant we had a shortened offseason compared to years past and I hope it finds you, your friends, and your loved ones, doing well in these difficult times. FC Ryukyu will kickoff the 2021 campaign against Jubilo Iwata, last season’s 6th place finisher, and a team who is looking to get back to the J1 after suffering relegation in 2019. For Ryukyu, it is a season filled with many questions that will hopefully be answered – in a positive way- in short order.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from FC Ryukyu
Review of Last Season’s Matches
Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Jubilo Iwata
Keys to Victory
Match Prediction
Round 1 in J2
Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from the Club

Not at a bad forecast for opening day. It maybe a little bit hotter than some of you are used at this time of the year so stay hydrated (Water, Orion, or other).

Match Day Info on FC Ryukyu’s website:http://fcryukyu.com/news/26776/

2. Review of Last Season’s Matches

These two sides played to a 2-2 draw in their first ever meeting. In that game, FC Ryukyu squandered the lead on two occasions with the Lukian goal at the 86′ proving to be the equalizer.

On MD 36, Jubilo Iwata blew FC Ryukyu away to the tune of a 3-0 score line.

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: This is going to be a critical season for FC Ryukyu for a couple of reasons. Already operating on one of the lowest budgets in all of J2, Ryukyu did little to bolster a side that finished 16th in spite of their highest ever point total in J2. FC Ryukyu has committed to Higuchi, and If the team doesn’t finish higher than last year, or happens to drop completely out of J2, there will be no consolation in the firing of our manager. We all expected the departure of Yoshio Koizumi in the offseason, but the loss of Shuto Kawai was also a tough pill to swallow. Ryukyu first reached out to Fagiano Okayama for 3 replacements; FWDs Shintaro Shimizu and local boy Shingo Akamine, and they also added an attacking mid fielder in Koki Kiyotake. It has been said that Kiyotake has a penchant for the flair, but can also be quite streaky at times. Ryukyu then added Mizuki Ichimaru on a permanent (1 year) deal after his loan from Gamba Osaka last season. I think this was a good move for a side that is aging at CDM, but Ichimaru has yet to reach his full potential. Ryukyu next brought in 3 college players to go along with the return of Ramon from loan, and the re-signing of 22 players from last season’s squad.

Two of the biggest signings for the club were the return of Kazaki Nakagawa on loan from Kyoto Sanga FC, and Sittichok Paso from the Thai League side, Chonburi FC. We will need to wait a few weeks to see Paso at training, but the Nakagawa signing provides a bit of cover from the Koizumi departure, as well as a lot of hope for the Ryukyu attack. However, one area that FC Ryukyu failed to address, and which has been their achilles heel the past two seasons, is the defense. Ryukyu have been an attacking team ever since Kim Jong Song took over in 2016, but this season will largely be determined by the performance of their defenders.

It is really anyone’s guess as to who will comprise the starting 11 for Ryukyu on Sunday since no one was able to attend the preseason training matches to see first hand how this team was set up. Ryukyu may not possess worldly talent up front, but they have a lot of quality players to choose from. Last year’s leading goal scorer, Takuma Abe, will likely start at FWD, with some combination of Koya (last year’s leader in points), Nakagawa, Kiyotake, and Motegi joining him. It will be interesting to see how Motegi responds to a lost 2020 season from CV-19. Behind him, the only real question is whether or not Ichimaru did enough in the preseason to unseat either Koki Kazama or Kazumasa Uesato at CDM. Next, we will see who won the goal keeper competition between the incumbent, Dany Carvajal, and Junto Taguchi who seemed to be Higuchi’s top choice down the stretch last season with several strong performances.

What isn’t in question though, is who will be starting in defense for Ryukyu. Keita Tanaka, who reinvented himself as the starting right fullback/wingback, will be joined by Keigo Numata on the left. Then there is the likely pairing of Lee Yong Jick and Ryohei Okazaki at CB. Or what I like to call, FC Ryukyu’s ‘Critical Vulnerability.’ If teams are able to stifle the Ryukyu attack, better known as the ‘Center of Gravity’ from which this team derives all of their strength, then we are in for a bumpy ride. I may have been a bit harsh when judging Yong Jick last season, as he was played out of position from the start, and prone to making mistakes, but I have no idea what to say about Okazaki. Who, is also getting up there in age without asserting himself at this level.

I will close this section with a couple of quotes. The first is from Yasuhiro Higuchi from the recent event the team hosted for their sponsors and season ticket holders this past weekend. “I would like to stick to our style and produce results based on what I have accumulated so far. Defensive soccer does not suit the blue sea and blue sky of Okinawa. I want aggressive style to fascinate the viewers of soccer.” Obviously time will tell just how well this quote ages, but in the meantime….

“Damn the Torpedoes. Full Speed Ahead” – Vice Admiral David G. Farragut

Jubilo Iwata: Slightly challenging to write a preview for a team that has yet to take the field this season. In the three preseason games I could find for Iwata; they went a 0-2-1. They drew against both Azul Claro Numazu and Shimizu S-Pulse, with a 2-6 loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima mixed in the middle. They only managed 3 goals this preseason, with one coming from an U-18 player. While that may offer some hope for us Ryukyu fans heading into the opening round, I still think Iwata are to good to simply overlook.

They will be lead by new signing, Fabian Gonzalez, from the Colombian Top Tier where he bagged 2 goals and 3 assists. Gonzalez takes over for their striker from last season, Lukian, who seems to be dealing with the same herniated disc issue that saw him miss the final weeks of the 2020 season. Joining Gonzalez up top in Iwata’s 3-4-3 formation will be Koki Ogawa, and Kotaro Omori. Ogawa scored 9 goals and added 2 assists last season, with Omori adding in another 4 goals and 8 assists.

Behind the strike trio sits Masaya Matsumoto and Daiki Ogawa who combined for 3 goals and 6 assists. In the central midfield, Iwata will once again pair their captain, Kosuke Yamamoto, with J-League legend, Yasuhito Endo. Yamamoto scored one goal with four assists across 41 games last season, but it was Endo’s 2 goals and 2 assists in only 15 games for Iwata after coming over from Gamba Osaka, that was more impressive. There is little doubt about where the Iwata attack starts, and Endo in particular, could easily carve up the Ryukyu back line.

At the back it will be Hiroki Ito, and Norimichi Yamamoto, on the flanks, but I am not sure if Yasuyuki Konno will be asked to drop back into the central defender role from his central defensive mid field position. Perhaps this was on purpose last season with Iwata pushing 7 players into the attack with Konno left to cover the two CBs. Finally, in net, it will be Naoki Hatta who allowed 30 goals in his 27 appearances last season.

Besides Yamamoto and Gonzalez, Iwata brought in Yuki Otsu from Yokohama F Marinos; Yuto Suzuki from Kawasaki Frontale; Kato – a LB – from the Finnish leagues, Kanuma from SC Sagamihara, and a university signing. Otsu has never been a prolific scorer during his time in the J-league so perhaps he is better known for his set up play and defensive skills. However, Suzuki made the most of his time at Matsumoto Yamaga last season where he scored 3 goals and set up another 6. Perhaps Suzuki pushes Ogawa or Matsumoto from the starting 11 of Iwata.

4. Keys to Victory

For those of you that are new to the blog, I employ a scale that rates the chances FC Ryukyu will execute any of the keys to victory that I come up with. I usually take into account the recent performances by both sides heading into the match, and then put my own spin on things.

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Keep the foot on the Gas Pedal: Likelihood 3. Seeing how this is the opening fixture, and we have no data points as of yet, there are very few keys to victory that I can think of right now. FC Ryukyu will have to be one of the most aggressive, possession based, teams in the J2 in order to cover the back line and stave off relegation. We certainly have the horses to do it, but these guys have had little time together so we may not see the attack fully clicking for some time. Also, Higuchi needs to be extremely efficient this year when it comes to the timing of his substitutes. Something we haven’t always seen in the past.

2. Score from Set Pieces: Likelihood 2. This was an area where Ryukyu struggled last season as there were few goals from either Corner Kicks or direct Free Kicks. If FC Ryukyu are under a consistent barrage on Sunday, their only chance of stemming the tide will be from goals on set pieces. While it is likely that our CBs may account for some of the goals scored against Ryukyu on Sunday, it sure would be nice to see them involved in the scoring for Ryukyu this weekend.

5. Match Prediction

As some of you may know, I participate in a weekly pick em’ league over that Transfermarkt.com web site with fellow J-League fans. If you are interested in joining in, please contact @Tobias and he will get you set up. On that note, I do have a rather poor track record when it comes to predicting the outcome of games, and their associated scores. However, it is quite fun to make these weekly ‘dart throws.’

FC Ryukyu have the ability, albeit at times, to play really well against much stronger competition. I wish I could say that it is when they are at home, but that isn’t the case 100% of the time as sometimes they put in quality performances on the road, with a good bit of poor performances against lesser competition everywhere. I feel this match will end in a 2-2 draw as FC Ryukyu will be aided by it being the home opener, and Jubilo Iwata will also be learning to play together for the first time this season.

6. Round 1 in J2

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/startseite/wettbewerb/JAP2

Everyone’s predicted league winner, V-Varen Nagasaki, open the season at home against Zweigen Kanazawa, with fellow predicted front runners, Kyoto Sanga FC, traveling to newly promoted SC Sagamihara. Matsumoto Yamaga FC, who some may consider for a promotion slot, are also on the road facing Renofa Yamaguchi. Fellow promoted J3 side, Blaublitz Akita, will play their first game ever J2 game – after missing out on automatic promotion in 2017 due to a lack of a J2 license – when they travel Thespakusatsu Gunma. However, the game of this round will be FC Machida Zelvia, some people’s darkhorse team of 2021, hosting another potential promotion candidate, Montedio Yamagata, at the newly renovated Machida Gion Stadium.

Well, well, well. You all are in for a treat. FC Ryukyu and Jubilo Iwata are gifted the curtain raising broadcast of 2021 on the J-League International YouTube channel. Enjoy!

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nJn0qASfBs

7. Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community

Per a new tradition started last year, I’d also like to include some of the other great content (in English) for the J-League. The @JTalkET podcast is THE SOURCE for all the goings on around the J2 & J3 leagues. It is in an invaluable resource for those of us whose first language isn’t Japanese. If J1 is more your speed, then the J-League English Podcast that started it all is what you want. Head over to the @JTalkPod and they’ll get your sorted. Available on Apple, Spotify, Podbean, and YouTube. They also have great perks if you are a Patreon.

@LiFJapan is your resource for everything ground hoping in Japan. https://www.youtube.com/c/LostinFootballJapan & lostinfootballjapan.com

@JSoccerMagagazine has over 25 years of writing about J-League football in English and produces a great reader available in hard or soft copy over at jsoccer.com. Also a purveyor of J-League kits at @JLeagueShirts.

@J_League_EN is the official English Twitter account of the J-League and provides the information regarding the free weekly broadcasts on YouTube. JLeagueInternationalYouTube.

The table below are some of the other great writers, blogs, podcasts and people of the J-League English language community.

@V_Varen_En	@FCTokyoKaiGuys	@frontalerabbit
nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/	fctokyokaiguys.wordpress.com/	frontalerabbit.blogspot.com
@jleagueregista	@BlogGamba	@threearrowsSFC
jleagueregista.wordpress.com/	gambaosakaenglish.blog/	violetarrowshiroshima.com/
@TricolorePride	@kanazawadreamin	@vegalta_blog
@OtherFBallPod	@avispa_en_unoff	vegaltasendaienglishblog
The Other Football Podcast	@sushi_football	@GoGoOmiyaArdija
@FortressNozuta	@FRsoccerSam	@JTalkETJon
@seankyaroru	@aishiterutokyo	@mcintinhos

8. Conclusion

Short of your team lifting the champions trophy at the end of the year, there isn’t a more exciting game than the home opener. Mainly because we have built up so much anticipation for the new season these past few weeks that is filled with hopes of our team winning it all, or at the very least, putting in a strong season to build upon. And we also all realize that these feelings could quickly dissipate in an abrupt manner by Golden Week here in Japan. But for now, the excitement for the FC Ryukyu opener is palpable, and I am really looking forward to this one. So sit back and enjoy the FC Ryukyu, or the team you support, opening weekend.

“The Place I Belong” Match Day 42 Preview: (14) FC Ryukyu vs (19) FC Machida Zelvia 12/20/20 #FC琉球

“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”

Intro

The final game of 2020 is upon us. It took 301 days from February 23rd to reach this point, but we’ve made it. This season has been unlike any other in history with the 4 month pause in play, COVID-19 protocols and suspensions, rescheduled games, games without fans, and the number of mid-week matches every team had to play to complete the fixture list. FC Ryukyu will close out their season this Sunday afternoon against FC Machida Zelvia, a team they share a long history with dating back to their time in the JFL, the J3, and now the J2.

Match Day 17: FC Machida Zelvia 4-2 FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu were demolished 4-2 by FC Machida Zelvia the last time they met back in September. Zelvia stormed out of the gates with 4 first half goals before FC Ryukyu answered with an own goal, followed by their first actual goal in the 92′ minute. Ryukyu had no answer for Zelvia on a day when Kazumasa Uesato was asked to fill in at CB due to several injuries and CV-19 suspensions. Well, we are healthier at the back this time, and FC Ryukyu are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment.

Previous Match Highlights

FC Ryukyu 2-0 Mito Hollyhock

FC Machida Zelvia 2-3 Jubilo Iwata

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Higuchi definitely wants to end the season with a win, which, would also extend the FC Ryukyu winning streak to three games in a row. FC Ryukyu have beaten Ehime FC and Mito Hollyhock by a score line of 8 goals scored, 0 goals conceded over their last 2 games and are surging at the moment. It is highly unlikely that we see the return of our leading scorer, Abe, or the inclusion of Makito Uehara in the lineup, but we will certainly see the curtain call for Shinji Ono in this game.

I would expect a very fast start for FC Ryukyu on Sunday as they will want to put themselves into a position to allow Shinji Ono the maximum amount of time to score his first goal for the club. Ideally, Ryukyu would like to have a two goal lead prior to the 60th minute to give Shinji at least 30 minutes, and several chances, to score in front of the home crowd.

We probably won’t see to much shake up to the FC Ryukyu lineup that has featured the last two games. There will be some combination of Yong Jick, Chinen, and Okazaki at CB; Numata and Tanaka in defense, with Tavares coming on later for Tanaka. In the CDM, we should see the return of Uesato to the captains role, and joining him should be Koki Kazama, who, is having some strong performances to close out the season.

The attacking four up front should be Kawai, Koizumi, Koya and Ikeda. Though we’d like to see how Hitomi would function with a strong supporting cast, the need to get out in front early may prevent Hitomi from starting. This brings us to the most tenuous position selection of recent weeks, goal keeper.

Dany Carvajal and Junto Taguchi have a 28/13 split for games started this year. In their last 5 starts; Dany has two wins, and three losses; while Taguchi has three wins, one draw, and one loss. When you peer into the numbers, Dany surrendered 6 goals in that span, but the team only scored 5 goals in his starts. Taguchi on the other hand, has surrendered 4 goals during a 13 goal outburst from Ryukyu. Taguchi has faced: Jubilo Iwata, Tokyo Verdy, Fagiano Okayama, Ehime FC, and Mito Hollyhock. While Dany has faced: Omiya Ardija, Ventforet Kofu, Renofa Yamaguchi, Avispa Fukuoka, and Zweigen Kanazawa. So the strength of opponents is definitely in favor of Taguchi

Both goalies have 5 shutouts this season with Dany averaging 1.57 goals against, and Taguchi at 1.36. Here is where it gets slightly interesting. In Dany’s starts, the team scores an average of 1.36 goals per game. For Taguchi, that number is 1.54. In Dany’s 28 starts, FC Ryukyu have been shut out 8 times. In Taguchi’s 13 starts, only 3 times. In fact, in games Taguchi started, the team has scored nearly half (20) of the goals they scored when Dany (38) started this season. I think luck plays a part when evaluating these two players as FC Ryukyu have faired far better offensively with Taguchi than Dany. Taguchi played well against Mito, but the schedule and results are weighted heavily in his favor.

Machida Zelvia: It must be tough to be an FC Machida Zelvia fan these days. In three of their past five games, they have surrendered three goals, and lost two games because of those leaks at the back.

Zelvia went 2-0-3 over their last five games. They started off with two straight defeats to Thespakusatsu Gunma and Montedio Yamagata, which represented two of the three games where Zelvia conceded at least three goals. Wild shooting, poor defending, and an a PK contributed to the Gunma loss. But against Yamagata, they started fast, took the lead twice, and then surrendered that lead in the 92′ and 94′ minute.

Machida followed up those two losses with consecutive 1-0 victories against Tokyo Verdy and Mito Hollyhock. The Verdy win came after a PK, and the Mito win was not all that inspiring so it was hard to draw anything from those games other than Zelvia responding to two heavy defeats.

The most recent game against Jubilo Iwata was a mirror image of the Yamagata game in that Zelvia would once again surrender a lead, and would do so in stoppage time. Machida at one point were up 2-0 before a 70′ goal provided the breakthrough for Iwata before a short corner with less than one minute left gave Iwata the victory.

For the season, Zelvia have been shut out 16 times, compared to 11 by FC Ryukyu. But unlike Ryukyu, Zelvia have only exceeded more than two goals scored in a game three times. One of those was against FC Ryukyu so there is that. Machida have also surrendered 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 6 games, as well as 8 games in total this season, which is good for about 20% of the time. Zelvia’s away record is not that great either as they have only won 4 games on the road all year, with the last win occurring back on Match Day 16 some three and half months ago.

The players to watch for tomorrow are also the top three scorers for Zelvia. Hirato, Ando, and Yoshio have all looked good in the last five games for Zelvia and represent the lion’s share of the team’s offense. Keeping them in check, something FC Ryukyu didn’t do the last time they played Zelvia, will be no easy task.

For more on FC Machida Zelvia, please see @fortressnuzama on Twitter.

Keys to ~~Victory for FC Ryukyu~~ Shinji Ono Scoring His First Goal

I have no idea if this will be Shinji Ono’s last game for FC Ryukyu, or maybe ever, but we have to understand that the end is drawing near for this great player. There has been no bigger ambassador for the club, and what Shinji has done here in Okinawa to increase the exposure of FC Ryukyu, has been nothing short of remarkable. But there is something missing, something that can be replayed over, and over, and over again for news outlets and fans everywhere. And that is a goal.

If this truly is Shinji’s last game, then like all greats who exit the sport on their last game, there is the emotional pregame speech he will deliver to the team. In that speech he will thank the players, the staff, the coaches and applaud their efforts throughout his time at the club. He will tell some stories about his footballing life, and then make an impassioned plea to go out there and win one last time. I think, after hearing that speech, that every single player in that locker room will bust their gut to get the win, but more importantly, to get Shinji on the score sheet.

1. The lineup selection must be built to start fast, and finish stronger. Ren Ikeda will need to make the start at FWD, with Koizumi sitting behind him in the CAM. This combination, along with Koya and Kawai, can generate the lead we need – in a winning effort – to bring on Shinji. Make no mistake, a goal by Shinji in a losing effort will not be as memorable as one in which Ryukyu win. When it is time to make the substitutions, they need to be measured against the talent that can support Shinji. Koizumi needs to drop back behind Shinji and allow Ono to operate at the top of the box as the CAM. Hitomi is better at FWD than Ikeda as he knows where to be to support the attack by getting into the right positions so this will help as well. Kawai and Koya should only be subbed off if they are gassed, and in that event, Yamaguchi should come in on the left with his speed; while Tavares comes in for Koya; drops back to RB; and pushes Tanaka up top as he possesses a better touch in the attack.

2. Stretch Zelvia along the flanks and find the last pass back to Shinji. Koya and Tanaka have the best accuracy for picking out players. And Kawai can pull the defense apart with his speed, with Numata looking good on crosses these days. Koizumi can pick out anyone, with every type of pass, from anywhere on the pitch which means we should have to supporting cast to get Shinji open.

3. Feed him. Shinji cannot score if he is not given the chances. Don’t be dismayed by the shots he takes that are off target, or directly at the defense, as he needs to get a feel for the game and his shooting touch. He may have no more than 30 minutes to do this, so expect shots from every angle and distance imaginable.

Match Prediction

If FC Ryukyu can win this game by more than 2 goals, they will finish with a positive goal differential for the first time in 2 years, as well as for the first time in J2. In that case, 3-1 to FC Ryukyu with the third and final goal coming from Mr. Ono sounds oh so good.

Match Day 42 in J2

All the fixtures will kickoff at 1400 JST which is the norm for the final match day. The two promoted teams will square off with Tokushima expected to lift the J2 Champions Shield. That is, barring a miraculous turn of events requiring Avispa Fukuoka to overturn a 14 goal differential with a victory by 8 goals. Letting your opponent lift the title at your home ground should be enough motivation for Avispa to make this a game.

Tune in for the lifting of the J2 Champions Shield: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHSZRWLeXEs

Elsewhere, there will be some jockeying for final positions inside the table. Most notably are the games featuring (5) Giravanz Kitakyushu and (9) Tochigi SC. If other results go in favor of these two teams, we could see both finish inside the top 6, with Giravanz possibly finishing 4th. Quite an impressive set of results for a newly promoted side, and a team that finished 20th in the table last year. But then again, one just has to recall Avispa Fukuoka’s meteoric rise from 16th in 2019 to 2nd in 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDriek2a1vg

Conclusion

Country roads take me home, to the place I belong.

Okinawa!

FC RYUKYU!!

Take me home!!!

“You Get What You Give” Match Day 41 Preview: (10) Mito Hollyhock vs (17) FC Ryukyu 12/16/20 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu got the better of Mito Hollyhock the last time these two sides met on Match Day 20. Koizumi scored a spectacular goal to open the game, but Mito responded with two of their own before Shinya Uehara’s late game heroics won it for FC Ryukyu in stoppage time.

Match Day 20: FC Ryukyu 3-2 Mito Hollyhock

It is unfortunate that this game will not feature two of the top scorers for each side as Mito’s Yamaguchi is out with a knee injury, and Takuma Abe hasn’t been seen in weeks. This will be Mito’s final home game of the year and they will certainly want to send the fans home with something special in the form of a victory.

Previous Match Highlights

FC Ryukyu vs Ehime FC (6-0)

Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia (0-1)

Team Previews

Mito Hollyhock: Mito seem to be one of those good, but not great, squads in J2. They’ve made some brief appearances inside the top 10 of the league table this year, but have not been able to put forth any consistent efforts to push higher than 9th. The fact that they lost Kazuma Yamaguchi, their leading goal scorer, to a devastating knee injury, meant they have had a lot of wind taken out of their sails.

Mito went 2-1-2 in their last five games with some notable wins, as well as forgettable losses. They surrendered the lead on two occasions to Giravanz Kitakyushu and Ehime FC resulting in a draw and a loss. Then followed that up with two hard earned victories over Jubilo Iwata and Tokushima Vortis.

Perhaps it was the emotional and physical toll from those two matches that saw Mito lose 1-0 to Machida Zelvia this past weekend. The Iwata game was played in some poor conditions with each team fighting hard to the end. Then there was the game against Vortis where Mito left everything on the pitch that included saving a potential game tying PK.

Unfortunately, Mito came out flat against Zelvia, who pounced on all the early opportunities resulting in a first half goal for the hosts. But make no mistake, Mito are the leading goal scoring team in J2, sitting on 67 goals scored, and can be relentless in the attack despite missing their talisman.

They also own one of the poorest goals against record, tied with FC Ryukyu at 60, so they are prone to breakdowns at the back. These are two fairly even matched sides, as indicated by the table below, so a slight advantage has to be given to the home side on a short week.

FC Ryukyu: While FC Ryukyu have enjoyed success against Mito at home, on the road is a completely different story. When FC Ryukyu traveled to Ibaraki last summer, it was with a depleted squad that saw our 3rd choice GK, Inose, making his debut due to an injury to Dany, and Ishii’s loan restrictions for playing against his parent club.

FC Ryukyu were soundly beat 3-1 that day, but that followed an earlier 1-0 win for FC Ryukyu in early 2019. That win by Ryukyu also came during a time when Mito was one of the best defensive sides in J2, allowing the fewest goals scored. So what should we look expect in the return match this year?

Against Ehime, FC FC Ryukyu saw the return of some players who had gone missing for quite some time. Namely, defenders Felipe Tavares, and Tetsuya Chinen. On the other hand, we still have no clue as to the disappearance of Takuma Abe and Shinya Uehara.

FC Ryukyu have managed to get by with Ren Ikeda, Takuya Hitomi, and even Yoshio Koizumi up top, and we should expect a similar set up tomorrow. Hitomi needs to see the pitch a lot the next few rounds as that will shape the management’s decisions regarding adding a striker in the offseason.

The midfield seems to be settled with Uesato, Koki, Koya, Kawai and Koizumi but we need to realize that one, or more, of those players will not be on the roster come 2021. Yamaguchi needs a solid performance and it would be nice to see Motegi return to the bench with a shot at a possible substitute appearance. These next 180 minutes will determine the fate of many players and we are running out of time to get a look at them.

In that same vein, FC Ryukyu need to get a longer look at Felipe Tavares, Tatsuya Chinen, and Makito Uehara. Seeing how two of them play the same position as Keita Tanaka, that may not be possible. I wish Higuchi would give Makito a shot at playing CDM next to Uesato for a few minutes, as he could learn from the veteran in some low pressure situations to end the season. As far as Chinen is concerned, he could be our 3rd, if not 1st, choice CB in 2021 and needs some reps these next two games.

The notion of knowing that we are just 2 points shy of our 2019 point total may cloud our judgement for getting some extended looks at the aforementioned players. But Higuchi literally has nothing to lose by playing these guys.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Normally this section outlines how FC Ryukyu could exploit their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses. But considering that wins are more hollow than substantive these days, let’s just get some guys the playing time they need before 2021. Likelihood 2.

Match Prediction

I wouldn’t fault FC Ryukyu if they came out a little sluggish tomorrow considering the travel, and that the game will be played in near freezing temperatures. It is their last road game of the year, and much like Ehime FC last week, they may just want to get out of there and get back home as quickly as possible. With that in mind, this game has the potential to be a back-and-forth affair ending in a 2-2 score line.

Match Day 41 in J2

A win for (1) Tokushima Vortis over (15) Omiya Ardija seals promotion. (2) Avispa Fukuoka will need to win against (21) Ehime FC, and hope for a Vortis loss to keep their title hopes alive. (3) V-Varen Nagasaki draw the toughest opponent in round 41, as they host (4) Ventforet Kofu.

It doesn’t look like there is a free broadcast for the J2 in the midweek as the J-League International YouTube channel has opted for a J1 game instead.

Conclusion

I have come to enjoy several mid-week games this year, but hopefully we will be returning to a sense of normality with the fixture list in 2021. Ryukyu have played a total of 15 mid-week games in 2020, with 5 of their last 6 occurring on the road. I always hoped we’d see FC Ryukyu playing in December, but that was for the promotion playoffs, not match day 41.

Ryukyu will end their 2020 season road slate with this final trip North to Ibaraki, but they haven’t played in temperatures this cold since a game in Yamagata some 20 months ago. And though a win would be enjoyable, I guess “you get what you give” in these times.

“It’s Alright and It’s Coming On” Match Day 40 Preview: (18) FC Ryukyu vs (21) Ehime FC 12/13/20 #FC琉球

Intro

In normal, non CV19 years, a bottom of the table clash would have a little excitement attached to the game as one, or both, teams try to stave off relegation. While that is not the case this year, this game should feature some goals, and heck, it is the prime time game on Sunday afternoon/evening for DAZN, so sit back and enjoy.

Match Day 7: Ehime FC 1-1 FC Ryukyu

These two teams drew 1-1 the last time they met back on Match Day 7 where a goal by Koya in the 69′ minute leveled the match after an earlier deflection just made it past the outstretched arms of Dany Carvajal. FC Ryukyu should have scored many more as they hit the post, crossbar, and side netting on an narrow miss from a Uesato FK. Abe also failed to score on his breakaway, but he really carried this team on his back to that draw as it was his intensity that led directly to the Koya goal.

Last Match Highlights

FC Ryukyu vs Fagiano Okayama (1-1)

*MD 34 Makeup Game Ehime FC vs. Ventforet Kofu (0-2)

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: When FC Ryukyu began this stretch of four home games in a row, there were some high expectations that they could win all four of these matchups, and their final home game, to close out the 2020 season. Prior to the match with Tokyo Verdy, FC Ryukyu were undefeated in their previous four home games with three wins and one draw. Well, things haven’t worked out as we might’ve hoped.

Things started off great with a 4-0 win over Tokyo Verdy but FC Ryukyu has gone on to lose 2-0 to Kanazawa as well as draw with Fagiano Okayama this past weekend. Granted, FC Ryukyu have been without their talisman, Takuma Abe, for quite some time, and a lot of changes to the lineup created some disjointed attacks in those games. But FC Ryukyu have a shot this week to right the ship when they face Ehime FC as they’ve been one of the worst teams in J2 this year.

I would expect the lineup this week to look much like the lineup we saw against Okayama beginning with Hitomi leading the line up top, and behind him their should be Kawai, Koya, Koizumi, Koki and Uesato. Higuchi may continue to deploy both Yong Jick and Okazaki, in order to get a longer look at Okazaki before 2021, and joining them should be Tanaka and Numata at fullback. At this point, we have to assume that Higuchi prefers Taguchi over Dany Carvajal in net as the recent track record indicates as much.

FC Ryukyu are 4-4-2 over their last 10 matches but the goals seem to occur in bunches as they’ve been shut out in 3 of those games. While Ehime FC do represent a “get right game” for Ryukyu, Ehime surprisingly have a better win rate away from home. It is good news for Ryukyu that Ehime have only shut out their opponent once in their past 15 games as FC Ryukyu prefer to start games fast by grabbing the early lead. But if FC Ryukyu cannot accrue an early lead with the play of their midfield, they will struggle for goals the remainder of the game.

In the last match preview I spoke extensively about FC Ryukyu needing to evaluate the talent in the reserves before the season ends. That was not the case last week as FC Ryukyu opted for trying to accumulate wins and points which means they need to see that mentality through to the end. It is a shame as we’ll have plenty of questions about this squad heading into 2021, combined with a depleted budget from CV-19, thus making roster decisions that much tougher on the management. We may, unfortunately, see the premature departure of some players who could flourish on other teams simply because we decided to improve our standing in a meaningless season instead of preparing for the future.

Ehime FC: Having already fired their manager, Ehime are listless and adrift at the bottom of the table with nothing but future employment left to play for. This team has been much worse this year compared to 2019 and two of their top three leading scorers are on loan from Sanfrecce Hiroshima which doesn’t provide much hope for this side heading into 2021.

Earlier in the season Ehime suffered through a patch of 10 games without a win but that wasn’t the worst as they endured further humiliation when they lost 5 games in a row. It is probably to nonene’s surprise when they moved on from their former manager after such results. If your trying to glean anything positive about this side in the preview, there is their away record – 21 of their 34 points earned on the road – and Ehime have surrendered two fewer goals than FC Ryukyu on the year.

Shockingly, Ehime won three games during the month of November, which represents nearly half of their total wins. In their last five games, Ehime earned victories over Niigata and Mito, followed by a very spirited draw with Omiya where they scored 3 goals inside of 4 minutes. But the goals have since dried up as they’ve been shutout in consecutive matches at home to Kyoto (0-1) and Kofu (0-2).

In a strange turn of events just last night, Ehime opted to release their leading scorer, Koki Arita, which leaves very little in the attack for Ehime outside of Shion Niwa who has scored three goals across the Niigata and Mito games.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Hit Ehime with our speed. Likelihood 4. Kawai and Koizumi are set to crush tomorrow as we know all too well about Taishi Nishioka’s inability to cover speedy wingers and midfielders in defense. Kawai has the speed to create acres of space in the Ehime defense and Koizumi needs to pick him out when he sees Kawai breaking around the edge.

2. Take Niwa out of the equation. Likelihood 2. He has been one of their best players the past few rounds, and now with Arita released, he’s the lone attacking threat on goal. He looks the part of a fine a striker, but not one that either Okazaki or Yong Jick cannot handle.

3. Do not switch off. Likelihood 3. While Ehime are not particularly threatening, when they are overlooked, they can strike back in a big way. The perfect examples of this was the recent game against Omiya when they scored 3 goals inside of a few minutes to level the match, as well as the game against Vortis earlier in the year when they hit 4 in a come from behind victory.

Match Prediction

I am feeling slightly more confident than usual this week so I think we see an exciting 3-1 win by FC Ryukyu.

Match Day 40 in J2

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j2-league/startseite/wettbewerb/JAP2

(1) Tokushima Vortis will secure promotion with a win over (13) JEF UTD Chiba. And they will win the J2 title if both Avispa Fukuoka and V-Varen Nagasaki lose on on Sunday. (2) Avispa Fukuoka need a lot of help to win the title as that will require Vortis to drop points before they meet, but can Fukuoka can strengthen their promotion push with a win and Nagasaki loss. That will be no easy task for Fukuoka this week as they face a resurgent (6) Kyoto Sanga FC side that has beaten 2 out of the top 3 sides in the table on their way to closing out the season. A win by Nagasaki over (12) Tokyo Verdy, coupled with a loss by Fukuoka, would see them overtake Avispa for the #2 position. It is also the free international broadcast this week.

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/tabelle/wettbewerb/JAP2/saison_id/2019

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Khq1RP5FBs

Conclusion

In the past few days Ehime have fired their manager and released their leading scorer, and are probably eagerly anticipating the end of the pain and suffering that 2020 brought them. This is game is a gift wrapped opportunity to grab our 13th win of the season in front of the home crowd. All we need to do is, “get it right back.”

“Move in Space with Minimal Waste” Match Day 39 Preview: (18) FC Ryukyu vs (15) Fagiano Okayama 12/6/20 #FC琉球

Intro

In 2019, FC Ryukyu lost twice to Okayama, 0-1 & 0-2, with Lee Yong Jae scoring all 3 goals for Fagiano. This year it was FC Ryukyu getting the better of Okayama early when they won 2-1 at Fagiano on Match Day 9. Can FC Ryukyu return the favor from 2019 and do the double over Fagiano in 2020?

Match Day 9: FC Ryukyu 2-1 Fagiano Okayama

Much like last game, FC Ryukyu welcome in a side that haven’t had the best track record of late, but have played well against a much tougher opponent in the round prior to Ryukyu. Kanazawa couldn’t buy a goal on the road their past five games but after taking Vortis to the brink, they came to Okinawa and beat us 2-0. Well, Fagiano Okayama haven’t won in six games, but they nearly pulled off the win against Avispa Fukuoka earning a draw in the mid-week. Which begs the question, will this game turnout the same way?

Match Day 38 Highlights

FC Ryukyu vs Zweigen Kanazawa (0-2)

Fagiano Okayama vs Avispa Fukuoka (1-1)

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Higuchi admitted after the Kanazawa game that there were far too many turnovers from his side and the bevy of changes to the lineup played it’s part in the disjointed attack. He also mentioned how susceptible FC Ryukyu are to surrendering goals. The turnovers are the easiest fix since the latter point requires a fundamental shift in our defensive philosophy to stem the influx of goals. And that likely won’t happen any time soon.

With relegation off the table this year, all we want is for this team to pull out some home wins at the end. But that comes at a cost. And you need to understand that each season may feel like a sprint, but staying power and advancing your status, like statehood, is a marathon and not a sprint. I want nothing more than to see FC Ryukyu destroy Okayama on Sunday, but the most important task at hand is developing our younger players along with assessing the reserves. That sucks, and it isn’t pleasant on the eyes, I know. But it will pay longer dividends than watching FC Ryukyu destroy a team with our first team starters who couldn’t pull this team out of 18th all season.

We already know the quality commodities in Carvajal, Kawai, Koya, Tanaka, and Koki. I purposely left Koizumi off that list because he will likely depart this club at the seasons end and we need to come to grips with that fact. Taguchi has proven himself a very capable back up goal keeper, and you don’t find that every day, so it would be great to retain his services for next year but he may have flashed enough to earn a shot at a starting job somewhere in J2 next season.

Abe, Uehara, Uesato, and Torikai are all over 32 years of age which means we will need to find suitable replacements for these players. Takuya Hitomi made his debut start at FWD last week and is one of those players who could benefit from more game time at the end the year. If we can retain Abe next season, Hitomi would do well to learn under the veteran striker. We really need a longer look at Hitomi in a more settled lineup to make any real assessment of his abilities, but that probably won’t happen this year.

Ren Ikeda has been asked to do a lot for the club this year. He started in the #10 role to open the year, and looked good, before ceding that spot to Koizumi. He then has been required to fill in at Striker as well as various mid-field positions. He is the most likely replacement for Koizumi when the latter departs, and though we have tinkered with both players in the lineup at the same time, they are identical players that need to see lots of the ball to be effective. So coexistence seems unfeasible.

Defensively we know what we have in Yong Jick and Fukui, and what we had in Okazaki in 2019, which leaves Suzuki and Chinen. Suzuki can make some poor decisions at times and is need of some better coaching to correct his flaws, but has at least put forth some effort this year. Chinen’s season has seen its share of ups and downs as well since he missed time with CV-19, and then briefly returned only to get injured. He has speed, which is nice in a CB, but needs to add some muscle to that frame to deal with the larger forwards in this league. So do all our defenders if we’re being honest. Makito Uehara has been the most exciting young prospect for Ryukyu this year, and I have always said that he is better suited in the CDM role with his size/speed combo than FB.

That leaves us with four players that the book is still out on. Ichimaru came to Ryukyu during a time when the team was desperate for healthy mid-fielders. But he hasn’t done much to impress and finds himself in a bit part role these days. He may not be that expensive to keep in 2021, but at this point, he may be taking away playing time from the other players we need to see more of since we have plenty of tape on Ichimaru. Motegi, like Chinen, had his season derailed by CV-19 and needs a quick injection of confidence. If he is fully recovered, a fact that no one may ever know when dealing with CV-19, then he needs to be in the lineup. He looked good to start the season but as failed to make the impact that many had hoped for when he signed from Mito this offseason.

I cannot foresee Yamaguchi as an everyday starter for the club. But his skills could be used as a second half sub that can stretch tired defenses with his speed. Like many of the players in the last section, he too dealt with a mid-season injury and drop in form. Out of all the players mentioned so far, Yamaguchi needs these last few games to show out. Which brings us to the final player that has been so much of an enigma this year, Felipe Tavares.

The RB has featured only once for FC Ryukyu and that was during the first game of the season against JEF. There has never been any word on any injury, or reasons as to why he hasn’t made the bench in the last 37 games. The only thing we have seen of him are the brief sightings at the end of games standing on the sidelines. Tavares more than held his own against J2 competition, in fact, he was an asset in both the attack and defense. He created at least seven chances from the RB spot as well as added a few shots on net in his lone game this year. He is as tall as some CBs in this league which means he can be a valuable weapon set pieces. Something we’ve struggled with this year. Look no further than his header from a corner kick that hit the crossbar that first game. Yet, Higuchi has not included him in the lineup. Granted, Tanaka’s emergence at RB has been a revelation, but certainly there is a place for Tavares on this team.

Fagiano Okayama: I am not quite sure of the circumstances surrounding the demise of Okayama this year. They started out fine, but then a 4 game winless streak shortly thereafter dropped them into the bottom half of the table, a position they were never able to recover from. There were some injuries to key players, most notably, Yong Jae who missed 12 games with an Achilles injury. Yong Jae has scored 6 goals this year, but is not in the same form he was in 2019 when he scored 18 goals and added 4 assists.

Some familiar names top the scoring leaders for Okayama in Satoki Uejo and Shuhei Tokumoto. Uejo has improved dramatically after his rocky start to the season and now leads the team in goals with Tokumoto leading the team in assists despite missing five games this season. Tokumoto has even worn the captain’s arm band for Okayama on four separate occasions this year.

As mentioned earlier, Okayama are winless in their past six games, going 0-3-3, with their last win occurring over a month ago. There were some tough games in that slate but after two consecutive losses to Matsumoto and Tochigi, Okayama looked much better in their draws with Kitakyushu and Fukuoka.

Okayama nearly pulled out the win against Kitakyushu as it was only the post that kept them from three points. They played Fukuoka tough and were pressing them the entire game for the winner, however, the shots they sent through the Avispa traffic were tracked the entire time by Serantes. It has been the play of Uejo and Yong Jae the past few rounds that has carried this team as Uejo has scored two goals in the past three games while Yong Jae bagged the equalizer against Fukuoka on Wednesday.

One thing to watch out for tomorrow is the set pieces from Okayama. Uejo can score from the freekick spot, as we’ve all seen before, and Yong Jae can create the separation and space to get on the end of crosses into the box.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Brace the left with Speed and Tenacity. Likelihood 3. Fagiano’s strength is down the left side of their attack with Tokumoto and Uejo. Luckily for us, that is probably our strongest side in defense (right side). The speed of Tanaka and Yamaguchi to recover in defense will help, as will their tenacity to dispose the attackers. Tanaka never gives up, and Yamaguchi has a lot to prove by playing hard tomorrow so if we can choke out the Okayama attack down the left, it will give our CB pairing a chance to reduce Yong Jae’s impact on the game.

2. Pepper the net with shots. Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu cannot afford another performance like the one against Kanazawa, so I would assume they will do more to get better shots on goal tomorrow. Though neither defense is particularly strong, Okayama defenders invite shots far too often which bodes well for us if we can get the attack rolling.

Match Prediction

I think the former FC Ryukyu boys make a triumphant return to Okinawa and help Fagiano Okayama to a comfortable 2-0 win.

Match Day 39 in J2

(1) Tokushima Vortis will look to close out one of the promotion slots this week when they travel to (12) Mito Hollyhock. A win secures them promotion, but a (2) Avispa Fukuoka loss to (15) Zweigen Kanazawa would give them the title. (3) V-Varen Nagasaki’s tough road continues when they host (7) Montedio Yamagata in a win or go home game.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2G-u75OQds

Conclusion

I am not sure if this game will turn into some sort of shootout on Sunday, but I have been wrong before. FC Ryukyu will face a team for the second consecutive game that are buoyed with confidence after facing a tougher opponent in which they earned a favorable result. But, FC Ryukyu do play up (and down) to their competition so this game could go so many different ways tomorrow.

One thing is certain though, FC Ryukyu need to cut down on the turnovers and mental mistakes that plagued them during the last match. If they can move in space with minimal wasteful passes, we could see them get the win.