Intro
In normal, non CV19 years, a bottom of the table clash would have a little excitement attached to the game as one, or both, teams try to stave off relegation. While that is not the case this year, this game should feature some goals, and heck, it is the prime time game on Sunday afternoon/evening for DAZN, so sit back and enjoy.
These two teams drew 1-1 the last time they met back on Match Day 7 where a goal by Koya in the 69′ minute leveled the match after an earlier deflection just made it past the outstretched arms of Dany Carvajal. FC Ryukyu should have scored many more as they hit the post, crossbar, and side netting on an narrow miss from a Uesato FK. Abe also failed to score on his breakaway, but he really carried this team on his back to that draw as it was his intensity that led directly to the Koya goal.
Last Match Highlights
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: When FC Ryukyu began this stretch of four home games in a row, there were some high expectations that they could win all four of these matchups, and their final home game, to close out the 2020 season. Prior to the match with Tokyo Verdy, FC Ryukyu were undefeated in their previous four home games with three wins and one draw. Well, things haven’t worked out as we might’ve hoped.
Things started off great with a 4-0 win over Tokyo Verdy but FC Ryukyu has gone on to lose 2-0 to Kanazawa as well as draw with Fagiano Okayama this past weekend. Granted, FC Ryukyu have been without their talisman, Takuma Abe, for quite some time, and a lot of changes to the lineup created some disjointed attacks in those games. But FC Ryukyu have a shot this week to right the ship when they face Ehime FC as they’ve been one of the worst teams in J2 this year.
I would expect the lineup this week to look much like the lineup we saw against Okayama beginning with Hitomi leading the line up top, and behind him their should be Kawai, Koya, Koizumi, Koki and Uesato. Higuchi may continue to deploy both Yong Jick and Okazaki, in order to get a longer look at Okazaki before 2021, and joining them should be Tanaka and Numata at fullback. At this point, we have to assume that Higuchi prefers Taguchi over Dany Carvajal in net as the recent track record indicates as much.
FC Ryukyu are 4-4-2 over their last 10 matches but the goals seem to occur in bunches as they’ve been shut out in 3 of those games. While Ehime FC do represent a “get right game” for Ryukyu, Ehime surprisingly have a better win rate away from home. It is good news for Ryukyu that Ehime have only shut out their opponent once in their past 15 games as FC Ryukyu prefer to start games fast by grabbing the early lead. But if FC Ryukyu cannot accrue an early lead with the play of their midfield, they will struggle for goals the remainder of the game.
In the last match preview I spoke extensively about FC Ryukyu needing to evaluate the talent in the reserves before the season ends. That was not the case last week as FC Ryukyu opted for trying to accumulate wins and points which means they need to see that mentality through to the end. It is a shame as we’ll have plenty of questions about this squad heading into 2021, combined with a depleted budget from CV-19, thus making roster decisions that much tougher on the management. We may, unfortunately, see the premature departure of some players who could flourish on other teams simply because we decided to improve our standing in a meaningless season instead of preparing for the future.
Ehime FC: Having already fired their manager, Ehime are listless and adrift at the bottom of the table with nothing but future employment left to play for. This team has been much worse this year compared to 2019 and two of their top three leading scorers are on loan from Sanfrecce Hiroshima which doesn’t provide much hope for this side heading into 2021.
Earlier in the season Ehime suffered through a patch of 10 games without a win but that wasn’t the worst as they endured further humiliation when they lost 5 games in a row. It is probably to nonene’s surprise when they moved on from their former manager after such results. If your trying to glean anything positive about this side in the preview, there is their away record – 21 of their 34 points earned on the road – and Ehime have surrendered two fewer goals than FC Ryukyu on the year.
Shockingly, Ehime won three games during the month of November, which represents nearly half of their total wins. In their last five games, Ehime earned victories over Niigata and Mito, followed by a very spirited draw with Omiya where they scored 3 goals inside of 4 minutes. But the goals have since dried up as they’ve been shutout in consecutive matches at home to Kyoto (0-1) and Kofu (0-2).
In a strange turn of events just last night, Ehime opted to release their leading scorer, Koki Arita, which leaves very little in the attack for Ehime outside of Shion Niwa who has scored three goals across the Niigata and Mito games.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Hit Ehime with our speed. Likelihood 4. Kawai and Koizumi are set to crush tomorrow as we know all too well about Taishi Nishioka’s inability to cover speedy wingers and midfielders in defense. Kawai has the speed to create acres of space in the Ehime defense and Koizumi needs to pick him out when he sees Kawai breaking around the edge.
2. Take Niwa out of the equation. Likelihood 2. He has been one of their best players the past few rounds, and now with Arita released, he’s the lone attacking threat on goal. He looks the part of a fine a striker, but not one that either Okazaki or Yong Jick cannot handle.
3. Do not switch off. Likelihood 3. While Ehime are not particularly threatening, when they are overlooked, they can strike back in a big way. The perfect examples of this was the recent game against Omiya when they scored 3 goals inside of a few minutes to level the match, as well as the game against Vortis earlier in the year when they hit 4 in a come from behind victory.
Match Prediction
I am feeling slightly more confident than usual this week so I think we see an exciting 3-1 win by FC Ryukyu.
Match Day 40 in J2
(1) Tokushima Vortis will secure promotion with a win over (13) JEF UTD Chiba. And they will win the J2 title if both Avispa Fukuoka and V-Varen Nagasaki lose on on Sunday. (2) Avispa Fukuoka need a lot of help to win the title as that will require Vortis to drop points before they meet, but can Fukuoka can strengthen their promotion push with a win and Nagasaki loss. That will be no easy task for Fukuoka this week as they face a resurgent (6) Kyoto Sanga FC side that has beaten 2 out of the top 3 sides in the table on their way to closing out the season. A win by Nagasaki over (12) Tokyo Verdy, coupled with a loss by Fukuoka, would see them overtake Avispa for the #2 position. It is also the free international broadcast this week.
Conclusion
In the past few days Ehime have fired their manager and released their leading scorer, and are probably eagerly anticipating the end of the pain and suffering that 2020 brought them. This is game is a gift wrapped opportunity to grab our 13th win of the season in front of the home crowd. All we need to do is, “get it right back.”
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