“Rock You Like a Hurricane (typhoon)” Match Day 15 Preview: (18) FC Ryukyu vs. (12) Montedio Yamagata #FC琉球

Intro

Still searching for their first home win of the season, FC Ryukyu welcome in a surging Montedio Yamagata team this Saturday evening. Ryukyu failed to earn a point last week against Niigata on the road with the downward trend for limited shots on net continuing. On the other hand, Yamagata ripped Kofu apart 3-1 and looked very good while doing it.

Weather Forecast
Match Day 14 Recap; FC Ryukyu
Match Day 14 Recap: Montedio Yamagata
Team Previews & Injury Reports
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day 15 Prediction
Round 15 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast

Despite the fact that a Super Typhoon is headed for Okinawa, the match conditions seem favorable on Saturday. Hopefully Montedio Yamagata can return safely home after the game.

2. Match Day 14 Recap: FC Ryukyu

3. Match Day 14 Recap: Montedio Yamagata

4. Team Previews & Injury Reports

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu ended their 5 games in 15 days with a 1-0 loss to Niigata on the road. The went 2W-1D-2L over that span with an even 5 goals scored, 5 goals conceded. There are some tired legs out there for FC Ryukyu and hopefully we will see a return of Abe to lineup tomorrow to provide a much needed boost to the offense. It maybe premature, but we could also see the debut of new signing, Mizuki Ichimaru, with so many injuries and suspensions to the FC Ryukyu mid-field.

FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: No change from the last installment and no announcements on the condition of Chinen and Motegi. I am beginning to become concerned for these two men as several weeks have passed and there is no indication that either has recovered or they are still dealing with CV-19 symptoms. I am concerned as these are professional athletes, in far better shape than most of us, and that serious damage is being done to their bodies and careers.

Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata are starting to surge after a very rocky patch in which they didn’t win a single game between Rounds 3 and 10. They have turned things around as of late by winning three out of their last four against some very good competition. Outside of their two losses to Kyoto and Gunma, Yamagata are very good defensively as they’ve shut out their opponents on six occasions this season. But Yamagata’s away form should also be noted as they haven’t scored nearly as much on the road as they have at home, and they only have one road win to date.

Montedio Yamagata Injuries & Suspensions: DF Kuriyama ruptured his Achilles tendon earlier this month but since his removal from the lineup due to injury, Yamagata has been winning more frequently.

5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Keep the mental mistakes to a minimum. Likelihood 2. This means not putting in rash challenges, taking bad angles to balls and maintaining a razor focus for the entire match.

2. Score from Set Pieces. Likelihood 2. FC Ryukyu are not generating as many shots on net as they have in the past and some of our best opportunities for goals may stem from set pieces. One goal each from the corner and dead ball spot would be amazing and probably allow us to earn our first home win this year.

6. Match Day Prediction

I see Yamagata tilting FC Ryukyu 2-0 tomorrow evening.

7. Round 15 in J2

Two big match-ups on Saturday with (2) Giravanz hosting (10) JEF, and (1) Nagasaki welcoming in (9) Omiya.

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/startseite/wettbewerb/JAP2

8. Conclusion

These two teams drew both times they played last year and it is interesting that the last time they squared off in Okinawa, there was a typhoon that disrupted the game. That won’t be the case this time but there is something odd about Yamagata traveling to Okinawa and bringing a typhoon with them.

With that in mind, it is high time that FC Ryukyu grabs their first win of the year, and Rock’s em’ like a Hurricane (typhoon)!

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 2 Match Report: Tokushima Vortis 1-0 Montedio Yamagata 12/8/2019

Intro

Tokushima Vortis are moving on the final playoff round after their 1-0 victory over Montedio Yamagata this past Sunday. For Vortis, it means they will play Shonan Bellmare this upcoming Saturday. For Montedio, it leaves them to wonder what could have been. There were some exciting games this Sunday to round out both the final round of the J1 & J3, as well as the playoff semi-final in the J2.

Match Recap

As one has come to expect with these playoffs, Montedio needed to come out on the front foot as a draw would not be good enough to advance. Montedio nearly got the dream start they were hoping for when last weeks hero for Vortis, Jordy Buijs, almost became this week’s goat. He was dispossessed by Yuya Yamagishi just outside the edge of his own 18-yard box. Yamagishi then fired a cross into the box where Haruya Ide was able to get on the end of it. Luckily for Vortis, the bang-bang play, and shot from point blank range, ended up being stopped by the scrambling Kajikawa who was able to get back in time and get a hand to the shot.

From here, Vortis began to take over the match and nearly scored off a beautiful give-and-go with Shimaya in the 32^nd minute. Yamagata fizzed a header just wide of the right post from a corner kick but the half would end 0-0.

Tokushima’s breakthrough occurred in the 53^rd minute with a beautifully executed play between Namura and Kawata. Namura received a pass after a Montedio giveaway in the Vortis half. Kawata, seeing the wide-open lanes between the Yamagata defenders, began to make a run to which Namura picked him out with a tremendous through ball. The pass put Kawata alone on net with only the Montedio goal keeper to beat. Kawata coolly finished off the play with a beautiful chip over the top of the goalie and thrust Tokushima into the playoff final.

Yamagata had a legit argument for a PK in the 74^th minute when their attacker was brought down in the box. But, as I’ve seen with this particular referee throughout the season, he missed the obvious call. However, it wasn’t just his fault as there was the “extra official” on the touch line and he should’ve seen this, and conferred with the referee to make the call, but Yamagata were simply unlucky. Montedio’s last chance came in the 88^th minute when a free kick from about 25 yards out sailed just high over the bar and onto the top of the net.

Final Score: Tokushima Vortis 1-0 Montedio Yamagata

Round 34 Recap in J1

The main games we were concerned with were the Matsumoto Yamaga FC versus Shonan Bellmare and the Shimizu S-Pulse against Sagan Tosu. Shimizu scored in the 68^th minute and began to put pressure on Sagan to equalize as Shonan had yet to score and they required a win to put either of Shimizu or Sagan into the playoff relegation bracket. In the 85^th minute, Shonan, on the road, scored a massive goal after a rather lackluster performance all day. Whether or not the word of that score line made it back to Sagan didn’t matter as Sagan never equalized against Shimizu and the game ended 1-0. But then the unbelievable happened, Matsumoto equalized in the 90^th minute to crush the hopes of Shonan and send them into the final playoff match against Vortis.

Round 34 Recap in J3

Kagoshima fans were intently watching the matchup between Thespakusatsu Gunma versus Fukushima United FC and Fujieda MYFC against Giravanz Kitakyushu. If Fujieda were to finish second in J3, then Kagoshima would not be relegated as they do not hold a J2 license. However, Gunma were able to handily defeat Fukushima 2-1 and relegate Kagoshima United FC despite Fujieda’s 1-0 victory over the J3 champions.

Conclusion

Yokohama F Marinos are the J1 champions, Kitakyushu are the J3 champions. Gunma will join Kitakyushu in the J2 in 2020 with Kagoshima United FC returning to the J3 after only one season in the J2 and all eyes will be focused on the playoff final between Shonan Bellmare and Tokushima Vortis this upcoming Saturday. There is only more round for the J League and then the semi-finals and finals of the Emperor Cup remain before we close out the 2019 season.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 2 Match Preview: #4 Tokushima Vortis vs #6 Montedio Yamagata 12/8/2019

Intro

The second round of the J1/J2 playoffs will pit #4 seed, Tokushima Vortis, against #6 Montedio Yamagata. Vortis are here because they drew 1 all with Kofu at home last week, whereas Yamagata went into Omiya and dug out a 2-0 road victory. The winner of this match will move on to face the 16^th placed team from J1 next Sunday. But for now, that is also in question and we’ll need to wait and see how the J1 fixtures play out this weekend before we can know either of these sides opponents in the final match.

Tokushima Vortis Home Record Compared to Montedio Yamagata Away Record

As previously mentioned in an earlier blog entry, Vortis have only lost 5 times across 23 home games all season and until the draw this past weekend, they had won 4 out of their last 5 home games while maintaining a 3:1 goal scored to conceded ratio. Another impressive stat from the Vortis home record is that they’ve only conceded multiple goals at home on 5 occasions this year. This really puts a lot of pressure on Montedio to score, and not concede, as we just witnessed with Kofu this past Sunday. That is no easy task as it is not easy to score more than 1 goal on Tokushima.

Much like Tokushima’s previous opponent, Kofu, Montedio are no slouches on the road and it will take another solid performance by Vortis to move into the final stage of the competition. Last week I stated that Montedio began the road schedule this season in very strong form only to see it wobble in the second half. I also mentioned that they accumulated some large statistics against weaker sides while losing to some of the stronger sides in the table to close out 2019’s road schedule. None of that mattered last week as they easily brushed aside the #3 seed, Omiya Ardija, en-route to a 2-0 victory. It seems the good road form that Montedio experienced earlier this season may be returning which makes for an interesting matchup against a Tokushima side who fancies scoring goals. I am eagerly looking forward to the Jordy Buijs versus Jefferson Baiano matchup in this one and so should you.

Previous Meetings between Tokushima and Yamagata

Match Day 14 May 9^th 2019 Tokushima Vortis 1-1 Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata was defending rather poorly and a cheap give away almost led to a very early goal for Vortis. Vortis did crack the Montedio back line in the 9^th minute when a deflected shot from Yuta Uchida was redirected into the Montedio net. Near the end of the first half, Tokushima Forward Kiyotake, was sent off for a rash challenge thus putting Vortis down to 10 men the remainder of the game. Montedio struggled to generate anything offensively this game and were lucky to be awarded a PK that Jefferson Baiano converted to level the match.

Match Day 24 July 27^th 2019 Montedio Yamagata 3-1 Tokushima Vortis: Vortis were awarded a PK in the 19^th minute that Iwao converted for the early Vortis 1-0 lead. Then, shockingly, Kiyotake was sent off in the first half for the second straight game against Montedio. This time it was his time wasting that upset the referee leading to his second yellow of the half. The sending off once again sparked Yamagata’s offense to level, and then take the lead over Tokushima.

Leading Scorers for Each Side

Player Injuries

Tokushima Vortis: No change from last week. Kishimoto is still sidelined with a fractured ankle that will keep him out the remainder of the season.

Montedio Yamagata: Same as last week as well, none listed.

Match Prediction

Let’s start with a summary of the quotes from the end of the Vortis/Kofu match by Jordy Buijs. First, Tokushima have a huge home field advantage with their supporters and this is probably no easy trek for the Yamagata faithful on Sunday. Two, Vortis already have the advantage of only requiring a draw to advance to the next round as outlined in the playoff rules making life tough for any road opponent. Finally, it is extremely hard to score more than one goal against Tokushima.

Tokushima’s performance against Kofu was not as inspiring as that of their opponent against Omiya last week. Vortis were struggling to break down Kofu’s defense despite Kofu not having an overly strong back line. Vortis had their only real chance stopped by Kofu before Jordy broke the deadlock. However, Kofu and Utaka responded quickly to level the match and make it “game on” again. I think if Kofu had not Allano sent off they could be hosting Montedio this week but that is not the case. And Tokushima never scored to walk away with a win despite the man advantage.

For their part, Montedio looked impressive against Omiya. Stonewalling the Omiya attack all day and then putting them away with some late goals in quick succession. Montedio, like Kofu, also sport an impressive away record in 2019. They conceded the second fewest goals (37) this season in J2 while scoring the second most goals (34) on the road.

So, this begs the questions; can the Montedio back line prevent Tokushima from scoring even 1 goal on Sunday and can Montedio score when both sides are at even strength?

I do not think Montedio can do both despite their strong defensive record and the amount of goals they’ve scored on the road this year. There was nothing in the previous two meetings between these teams to indicate that Montedio can score at even strength coupled with the fact that Vortis only require a draw to advance. This puts Yamagata at a serious disadvantage. I’ve been wrong so, so, so many times before but I feel the Vortis juggernaut rolls on this Sunday.

Tokushima Vortis 1-0 over Montedio Yamagata.

Look Ahead to the Potential J1 Opponents for the Final Round of the J1/J2 Playoffs

It is going to be close! From the J League website.

1. Shonan Bellmare currently sit 16^th and in the drop zone with 35 points. They face already relegated Matsumoto Yamaga FC on the road and have the best chance of escaping the J1/J2 playoff final of the 3 teams at the bottom. Shonan would love a win though a draw may level them with Shimizu S-Pulse and Sagan Tosu and that would result in Shimizu S-Pulse being thrust into the playoff final if those sides draw on Saturday.

2. Shimizu S-Pulse (15) & Sagan Tosu (14) both sit on 36 points and in a very interesting end-of-season-twist, face each other on the final match day. Either side would love to send the other to their death and knowing that Bellmare only need to get level on points with S-Pulse, means S-Pulse really need to go for the win.

Conclusion

There is so much excitement entering the final match day across the J1, J3 and J2 playoffs this weekend. Yokohama FC facing FC Tokyo in the J1 title decider, though FC Tokyo require a 4-0 drubbing to win the league and are missing some of their star players.

Fujieda and Gunma are gunning for the second automatic promotion slot in J3 and Kagoshima fans everywhere will be watching these games with great anticipation. If Fujieda end up second, Kagoshima are safe from relegation to the J3 as Fujieda do not hold a J2 license and therefore cannot be promoted. However, Fujieda host the 2019 J3 champions, Kitakyushu, and though they drew 0-0 last time. Gunma on the other hand travel to 11^th placed Fukuhsima, who they beat 2-0 the last time these sides met.

This will be fun for those of us that are neutrals as there will certainly be a lot of teams busting their guts going for it in so many games which makes for exciting football. Enjoy.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 1: Match Recaps 12/01/2019

Intro

The first round of the J1/J2 playoffs concluded this past Sunday with both Montedio Yamagata and Tokushima Vortis advancing to the second round. This was contrary to my predictions of Kofu and Omiya advancing, but anybody that regularly reads my blog knows that my match predictions are not that accurate.

For those relatively unfamiliar with the J1/J2 playoff system, it heavily favors the home side in any match. The home side merely has to earn a draw to advance, and as Jordy Buijs so accurately said in his postgame interview, it requires the away team to score at least 2 goals which is never an easy task. With that in mind, it is easy to see why the away team must come out on the front foot and try and score early and often. And why the home team never is out of the match despite a goal disadvantage. A draw is as good as a win in this format. With that, below is a brief summary of the matches and a look ahead to the second round.

#3 Omiya Ardija vs #6 Montedio Yamagata

Omiya entered the match having lost only 3 times at home all season while conceding only 2 goals to their opponents during their last 5 home games. Montedio on the other hand, lost 4 out of the final 10 road games and were conceding at nearly the same rate they were scoring as the visitors. However, there were some visible cracks to the Omiya side as they had only scored 1 goal from open play, the other being an own goal, over their final 3 matches. Meaning, the Omiya attack had dried up and was failing to fire at the worst possible time.

As noted in the introduction, Montedio came out strong and were generating a majority of the goal scoring chances. You wouldn’t know that from the limited highlights on DAZN but Montedio looked like they were going to crack the Omiya defense early. In fact, they should’ve received a dead ball kick from just outside the 18-yard box when the Omiya defender blocked a shot with his arm. However, the call wasn’t given and the half ended with a 0-0 scoreline. What seemed interesting about this half was that Simovic was creating all sorts of problems for the Monetedio defenders but he was not paired up top with Delgado. In fact, Delgado came on in place of Simovic after half time since Simovic had picked up a yellow card. Maybe that was a smart move on behalf of the Omiya manager, Takagi, as we’ll see later from the Kofu match.

Both sides traded some goal scoring chances for the first 25 minutes before the real fireworks took place. I couldn’t tell from the replay if it was #23 or #27 who sent the cross in from a CK but in any case, the cross ended up being sent to the back of the net by #18 of Omiya, Ippei Shinozuka, for an own goal. Now, Omiya, specifically Delgado, began to argue that it was a clear-cut case of off sides. However, the refereeing crew got the call correct in that the Montedio FW didn’t make contact with the ball as it was entering the net or interfere with play. In fact, he did really well to lay off it and let the ball roll past the keeper. Delgado was visibly upset that the offside call wasn’t given and then stupidly bumped into the referee. The ref was then forced to issue a yellow card and this was probably not what Takagi was hoping for when he made the early substitution for Simovic. However, Omiya still had 15 minutes plus stoppage time to level the match and advance.

Unfortunately for Omiya that goal would never come and instead they were shell-shocked from a second goal by Montedio 9 minutes later. A perfectly weighted and placed cross from Yanagi to the deep corner of the box found Yamada who then headed the cross back across the mouth of goal where Yamagishi had made a nice run between the Omiya defenders. Yamagishi slotted home the second goal for Yamagata and it was visible across the faces of most of the Omiya players that they had could offer no response to get back in the match.

Final Score Montedio Yamagata 2-0 Omiya Ardija.

Yamagata are marching on to face Tokushima while Omiya were left pondering where it all went so wrong. Omiya were earmarked by many to not only be promoted to J1 at the start of the season, but to advance through these playoffs and face the 16^th placed J1 side in 2 weeks. Well that isn’t going to happen and after reading a lot of the Twitter posts from the Omiya supporters, it seems that it is time to clean house and start anew for 2020.

Jefferson Baiano informing the Omiya crowd of their chances at advancing. BTW, this is act is considered unsportsmanlike, incurs a fine and suspension in the NFL.

#4 Tokushima Vortis vs #5 Ventforet Kofu

This was billed as the most enticing match up of the opening playoff fixtures as it pitted two very strong sides against one another. Each had overwhelming strengths when it came to winning at home, or on the road in the case of Kofu, as well as scoring goals and preventing their opponent from scoring. In the match preview I had picked Kofu to advance because I am a strong proponent for those teams that have displayed the ability to win against tougher opponents on the road. Maybe that is my inner NFL fan emerging but it is a key factor come playoff time and I certainly thought Kofu could do the job this Sunday.

This was a feisty affair with both sides committing bookable, and hard, offenses early and often. However, it was Kofu that was picking up the yellow cards as none of the Vortis players were booked. As an outsider, it looked a bit harsh that the referee was only issuing the cards to Kofu as Vortis were certainly guilty of a yellow card on one occasion. Kofu had picked up an astounding 3 yellow cards in the first half while Vortis received none. The one booking that never came was when Allano was brought down by a high boot to his upper legs after rounding the Vortis player. I cannot recall what Allano was booked for earlier but his complaint to the referee seemed to indicate that he did the same, or less, to receive his yellow and why shouldn’t the Vortis player receive the same treatment. In any event Kofu were toeing a fine line when it came to fouls as 3 players are sitting on yellow cards before half time.

Much as one would expect, Kofu had to press early in order to overcome what seems to be the invisible, but very present, 1 goal deficit even before they kickoff. However, it was Vortis who struck first from a well taken shout by Jordy Buijs in the 37^th minute. Jordy had found some space between the Kofu defense and turned a cross into the upper right corner of the goal just past Kawata. Kawata, who made a spectacular save just a few minutes earlier, could do absolutely nothing on the play. It was strange watching Tokushima celebrate the 1 goal advantage as if they had just scored deep into extra time, but this is what you get in the current construct of the playoff system. It now meant that Kofu are now required to score 2 goals in order to advance.

Kofu were able to respond, and respond rather quickly, from a Peter Utaka goal just 2 minutes later. He received the pass and as he did, the ball bounced up a little and he was able to strike it with his right foot and put some swerve and dip on the shot. Kajikawa was forced to rise to parry the shot over the net but he accidentally swatted the ball into the goal instead of out of danger as he initially intended. This type of response can motivate teams to go on a win but for Kofu, it was not meant to be.

Allano picked up his second yellow card, which obviously would lead to a red card and sending off, for a very poor challenge just after kickoff in the second half. I blame the Kofu manager, Ito, for not substituting Allano at half time. It was obvious to anyone watching the game on Sunday that Allano was angling for a second booking from his rash challenges all half. In fact, he committed a challenge in the first half after his booking and the calls from the home crowd for another card were loud and noticeable. I blame Ito as he should’ve seen that this particular referee was not averse to pulling out the yellow card for his side while keeping it in his pocket for Vortis. He should’ve also noticed that Allano was not making smart decisions at the point of challenges and he should have given his side a chance to advance instead of facing long odds to score when down to 10 men.

Kofu did all they could to go for the second goal but it was never going to happen. Tokushima are advancing and will now host Montedio while Kofu’s season ends in bitter disappointment.

Final score Tokushima Vortis 1-1 Ventforet Kofu

Jordy Buijs Quotes: “1, when we score 1 goal they need to score 2 and it is not easy to score 2 goals on us. 2, We had 3 advantages today, 2 before the start of the game; our home crowd and the point that we only needed a draw to advance. They gave us another when they had a man sent off.” About as accurate as you can get with the post game interview.

Tokushima Vortis vs Montedio Yamagata 12/08/2019

These sides drew 1 all at Tokushima in May with Yamagata getting a 3-1 win over Vortis in late July. Tokushima are entering this match with serous amounts of momentum on their side while Montedio have to be buoyed by their performance this past Sunday against Omiya. There was a strong showing by the Yamagata supporters this past match and I hope they can bring the same amount of people, and intensity, to Tokushima as their boys will certainly need all the support they can get against a very tough, very determined Vortis side.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 1 Preview: (3) Omiya Ardija vs (6) Montedio Yamagata

Intro

Omiya Ardija host Montedio Yamagata at the NACK 5 stadium this Saturday in the first round of the J1 Promotion Playoffs. The winner will advance to face the winner of the other semifinal, Tokushima Vortis versus Ventforet Kofu. Omiya had an outside shot at securing automatic promotion just a few short weeks ago but ended the season with 3 straight draws resulting in the overall #3 seed for these playoffs. Montedio didn’t do much better as they lost 3 out of their final 4 games and ended up finishing in the 6^th and final playoff spot.

Home Record for Omiya Ardija and Away Record for Montedio Yamagata

Omiya have played 23 home games all season across two competitions. I am counting the Vissel Kobe match as a home game considering it was played at Nack 5 for the Emperors Cup even though Omiya were considered the away side. Omiya hold a distinct advantage over Montedio when it comes to home vs away records in that Omiya have only lost 3 times at home all season. One of those was the 4-0 loss to Kobe which means they’ve only lost twice at home all season against J2 opponents. Care to guess who one of those losses was? BOOM! FC RYUKYU. In all seriousness, Omiya have an impressive 14W6D3L record at home with 43 goals scored while only conceding 24. If you take away the Kobe match that means only 20 goals surrendered to J2 sides and if you take the FC Ryukyu game with its 4 goals, that means Omiya conceded only 16 goals across 21 games. If I were to guess who the stingier defensive side was in this match-up, I would’ve guessed Yamagata as they were a very tough nut to crack early on this season. Still, over the last 5 home games, Omiya have averaged over 2 goals scored while only conceding a total of 2 goals to their opponents. Meaning they have really tightened up at the back. On the flip side, Montedio have averaged the same amount of goals scored on the road over their last 5 games, but they have conceded far more than Omiya when they’re the visitor.

Montedio started the 2019 season by only losing once in their first 11 road games. They then proceeded to lose 4 out of their remaining 10 road games. There is a stark contrast to how the team started out and how they finished on the road this season. In their first 11 games they scored 14 goals, conceded 8 and had 6 shutouts. Over the course of the last 10, they scored 20, conceded 17 and only shutout their opponent twice. It seems that Montedio have broken down defensively since their strong start. Nearly three quarters of all the goals they scored in the second half of the season on the road (14 of 20) occurred during a 4-game stretch against Reysol, Kagoshima, FC Ryukyu and JEF. They followed that up with losses to Kanazawa and Mito before beating Renofa on the road 3-2 to close out their road schedule. So much of their favorable road results are contained in a short stretch.

As mentioned in the introduction, both sides are entering this match in less than top form. Omiya had won 3 straight prior to their 3 straight draws to Tochigi SC, Niigata and Kanazawa. It seems the Omiya attack has ground to a halt at the most inopportune time. They’ve only scored one goal over the past 3 matches, the other being an own goal against Kanazawa. Montedio, on the other hand, have lost 3 out of their last 4 games including the home loss to Machida Zelvia on the last day of the season. Now, one could argue that Montedio would’ve rather traveled to Omiya vice Tokushima to start the playoffs but that would insinuate some match-fixing and that would definitely upset all the Kagoshima fans if it were true. Plus, rarely does trying to line up your match ups work on sports. More often than not it completely blows up in your face.

Previous Meetings this Season

Match Day 4 March 17^th 2019: Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Omiya Ardija. A Jefferson Baiano penalty kick proved to be the difference in this game after he was brought down in the box early in the first half. Each side traded some goal scoring chances but neither scored the remainder of the match. The Montedio side looked strong defensively and on the attack with Baiano and Sakano in the lineup.

Match Day 26 August 4^th 2019: Omiya Ardija 3-2 Montedio Yamagata. An absolute cracker with 5 total goals. Montedio jumped out to an early 1-0 lead before a Simovic brace in the first half put Omiya up 2-1. Montedio equalized within 10 minutes of the start of the second half before Barada from Omiya put it out of reach after a diving, punched clearance from the Montedio goal keeper fell right at his feet with a wide-open shooting lane.

Leading Scorers for Each Side

Player Injuries

Shockingly none are listed for either side at the moment. However, Jefferson Baiano, Akito Takagi and Shuto Minami havent featured for Yamagata in some time. The same could be said for Omiya players Masato Kojima, Noriyoshi Sakai and Akinari Kawazura.

Match Prediction

Though Montedio proved it could score on the road versus Omiya I think this is two totally different teams we are looking at this weekend. I think Omiya have the better of the 2 goal keepers and the Montedio defense, particularly Kuriyama, will have his hands full with either or both Simovic and Delgado. Montedio have conceded multiple goals in 4 straight games and prior to a string of 1-1 and goal less draws, Omiya had scored multiple goals in 4 straight games. Finally, Omiya’s goal scoring/conceded record over their last 5 home games seems very telling for how this one could end.

Omiya Ardija 3-1 over Montedio Yamagata.

Conclusion

Not sure if this is the tastier of the 2 matches this weekend but it should feature some goals which is always good for the neutral fan. Omiya are going to need to generate some momentum if they are to make it past some tough opponents en route to the J1 and there is no better way than by getting a multiple goal, multiple goal difference victory to start the playoffs.

“Climbing the Big Blue Mountain” Match Day 33 Preview: FC Ryukyu versus Montedio Yamagata 9/21/2019

Intro

We may very well be seeing a new 2020 J1 side this weekend in Yamagata and hats off to them as they’ve been impressive so far this season. It is often said in American Football that offense wins games but defense wins championships, well folks, Yamagata is the perfect example of this expression. Joint leaders for the fewest goals surrendered this season and they’ve shut out their opponents in 5 out of their last 10 matches. Good for them and congratulations are in order. So let me ask this question, why can’t FC Ryukyu play the role of spoiler this weekend? 10 points from bottom may force a conservative posture but in a match in which we are probably huge underdogs, why not go for the gusto?

Weather Forecast

Pre-match Typhoon conditions. HAHAHAHAHAHA. If I said rain, wind and an overall terrible forecast would you be shocked? Great, all of that and more. Hardcore fans unite, all else, you are very much welcome and I’ll bring a towel for you. I cannot see them playing this game in these winds! Has to be rescheduled.

Montedio Yamagata

Where to start. Well for one, this is not the same FC Ryukyu team that was coming off 4 straight wins and a draw and was top of the table when these two teams last faced each other in March. Second, Yamagata has surged back up the table after many had written them off after selling one of their talisman strikers. A smothering defense, which we saw in match day 6, is still there and now it is paying huge dividends when it matters most.

I was going to dedicate a whole paragraph to summarizing how good Yamagata have been but only one sentence is needed. Yamagata has shut out their opponent in 16 of 32 matches this season. Let that marinate or sink in for a moment. Half of their games have been shutouts. Care to guess how many FC Ryukyu have on the docket? 3. 3 out of 32.

4 shutouts in 5, 2 wins in 2 against two top 3 sides and a hunger for J1 football is what is coming to town this Saturday. We have seen something similar to this before when FC Ryukyu surged to the top of the J3 table last season so temper your expectations tomorrow night. Of course, anything can happen on any given day but for all intents and purpose, the Yamagata Steam Roller is headed south and is unlikely to be stopped.

FC Ryukyu

It is not all gloom and doom for the outlook tomorrow. FC Ryukyu have secured 4 points from the last 2 matches and one of those points was on the road. Even though I have seen, or watched, every FC Ryukyu game this season, the team we run out tomorrow is so different from the one that started the year. The “feel good” atmosphere that once existed early on denigrated into a horrible realization of hubris, then one of slight hope, culminating with the realization that we can be in the J2 next year thanks in large part to the efforts of Uejo and the new signings.

Answering the call and the critics, Uejo is asserting himself as a man amongst boys. Higuchi may have been correct earlier this year when he refused to play this emerging talent, because, he knew we required his services later on due to the expected loss of Koji and Nakagawa. Time will tell, I guess.

Injuries

Montedio Yamagata & FC Ryukyu have no significant injuries to report. However, FC Ryukyu will be without the services of Uesato tomorrow as he will serve a suspension for accumulating too many yellow cards.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Reckless Abandonment.

Match Prediction

FC Ryukyu are barely in the same country code, let alone zip code, when it comes to a team of Yamagata’s quality. Screw it, go for gusto. 3/4/5/6-0 losses have occurred so that type of result against this type of opponent wouldn’t be shocking. I’d rather watch the boys give it their all with no restraints. With that said, Yamagata 3-0 and I don’t even care.

Conclusion

4 home games remain people. There are those of us that attend matches and read this blog and those that do not. So, I am appealing to all of you to bring someone to the game from the do not section above. This island, this country, needs FC Ryukyu as much as the club needs them for J2/J1 football. A sports franchise is asserting itself on the island of Okinawa, which, in my experience, is often considered a distant and segregated element of Japanese society. Let’s help all of Okinawa by putting one finger up (your choice on the finger) to all those that oppose, hate, discriminate, and fear anything Okinawa this weekend. Remember, the FC Ryukyu Army is coming for you, we show no mercy, grant no quarter and we never tire.

Match Day 5 Recap: Montedio Yamagata 1 – 1 FCR 3/24/2019

FC Ryukyu was chasing history this week when they traveled to the Yamagata Prefecture to take on Montedio. Unfortunately, history will have to wait as the boys were able to earn a draw against a tough Yamagata side in less than ideal footballing conditions. Let’s not take anything away from the result because it is still positive points earned on the road in the early part the season that will pay dividends later this season. Also, it leaves FCR at the top of the J2 table when the other teams around them stumbled this weekend.

As mentioned above, the weather in Yamagata was around 40 degrees at kickoff with some wind and that’s pretty cold for a football match. For the first 15 minutes, FCR looked very sluggish while giving away the ball far too easily from bad passes. On the other hand, Yamagata looked up for it and created all the early chances in the match. I wrote in the match preview that #9 from Yamagata, Jefferson Baiano, would create all sorts of problems for the FCR back line and therefor it was Okazaki who drew the marking duties. While Okazaki performed admirably in the first half by keeping Baiano off the score sheet, it was evident that Baiano’s power would be too much for the two FCR center backs to handle all game.

FCRs first chance of the match came in the 18^th minute when Uesato found Nishioka on a cross from a corner kick but the ball took a weird bounce that seemed to surprise Nishioka and thus he couldn’t generate any power or accuracy for the header. A cheap giveaway by Montedio in the 21^st minute led to a long over the top ball from Uesato that was able to pick out the run of Suzuki. He initially split the two Yamagata CBs but his first touch took him out wide left and left him with a bad angle to shoot. He looked like he may have been fouled on the play but he was just losing his balance as his shot ultimately hit the side netting. Just one minute later, Yamagata was allowed to get one of their long balls over the top through to Baiano who overpowered Okazaki on his way to the net. Thankfully, he scuffed the shot and it rolled harmlessly wide to the right of Carvajal and over the touch line.

The remainder of the first half saw two more chances of note for FCR. First, Masutani was able to pick out Tokumoto on a very long cross from the FCR end. The Yamagata defender misjudged the ball in the air and this led to an opportunity for FCR. Tokumoto was all alone on his run into the left side of the Montedio box but instead of carrying the ball deep into the box, he opted to pass early back across the box and it was nearly intercepted by Yamagata. He was able to get the ball back but his cross was dealt with by Montedio. The second chance came from #6, Kazama, who had a ball fall to him near the top right part of the Yamagata 16-yard box but because of the bounce it took, he was only able to attempt a chip over the keeper that found the top netting.

FCR started the second half much better than the first and the game seemed to open up to both sides. Each side created a couple of chances in the first 15 minutes of the half but none threatened the goal. In the 62^nd minute, Tomidokoro was able to draw a foul in the box that gave FCR a PK. Before I go into the details surrounding the PK, I’ll admit that I didn’t see much in play that led to this being called a PK. The replays were not great from DAZN but I assume the Yamagata defender either pushed Tomidokoro from behind or took his feet out from underneath him, but I couldn’t see either. While I am a massive fan of FCR and it would be easy to simply not care since it ultimately led to my team being awarded a PK, I have to rightfully admit that it may not have been a penalty.

Things then took an interesting turn for both teams once Suzuki lined up over the ball. Suzuki’s attempt was a low shot just to the right of the keeper that the Yamagata goalie was able to stop. However, the goal keeper was yellow carded for coming off of his line too early and FCR was allowed to retake the kick. That call may have also been a bit harsh because I assume the referee could make that same call on 99% of all PKs taken but I’ve rarely seen it awarded. The ensuing chess match between Suzuki and the Yamagata goal keeper saw Suzuki shooting at the same spot, albeit a little harder, while the Yamagata keeper dove in the opposite direction. FCR 1-0.

This was the 5^th time in 5 matches that FCR was able to score first. Naturally, the match really opened up at this point and there were several chances by both sides. Baiano almost tied the game on a nice cross but his header went high over the bar. Kawai, who came on in place of Tomidokoro, miss hit a wide-open opportunity and then Uejo attempted a weak shot from the right side despite being sprung loose on a nice pass from Suzuki.

The last 7 minutes of the match were by far the most intense and saw Yamagata tie the match in the 87^th minute. A nice cross by #4 Miki wasn’t properly dealt with and a deflection came to Baiano, whose header bounced off the bar, and fell right to a Yamagata player, who was emerging from the carnage in front of Carvajal, who then calmly headed it into the back of the net. It was heartbreaking to concede a goal that late but that was the theme this weekend in the J2 were there were so many late goals that either sunk or saved a team.

Now, no one could fault FCR if they wished to secure the draw and see out the rest of the match by packing their own box and sending long clearances down range. To their credit, FCR never let up and they continued their attacking style of play that led to some of their best chances of the game.

In the 90^th minute Nishioka should’ve passed to a streaking Suzuki but he opted to shoot. Kawai had a chance in the 91^st minute but he could get any power behind his shot. Tanaka picked out #19, Ochi, whose header from a difficult angle surprised everyone when it hit the cross bar. Of course, these FCR chances came at a cost as Yamagata was able to create few of their own. The nerviest moment in stoppage time was a low hard shot on net by Montedio that was blocked and cleared out of danger. The final play of the match saw FCR streaking down the pitch on a counter attack with a serious man advantage but Suzuki took the shot himself and maybe missed Nishioka on his right who could’ve run free into the box and possibly passed to it someone who found themselves wide open. However, the Suzuki shot sailed high and the match ended in a 1-1 draw.

There a few takeaways from the match that I noticed. First, FCR started very slow and their bad passing allowed far too many opportunities for Yamagata. I am not sure if it was the cold temperatures, the long travel or a combination of both but thank goodness this was the farthest trip East FCR will have to make all season barring any ridiculous scheduling for the Emperor’s Cup. Second, FCR did well to limit the amount of free kicks and corners by Yamagata but it was ultimately a free kick that once again was the undoing of FCR. Third, Baiano was a handful for the FCR defense and players with similar build and disposition will cause problems throughout the season for FCR. Fourth, Yamagata really attacked our left side today and was exploiting the lackluster performance on defense by Tokumoto. Tokumoto was rounded far too easily by the Yamagata mid fielders on several occasions and this led to multiple chances for the home team. Fifth, despite FCR having 59% possession on the day, a majority of that was in the FCR end. FCR, as predicted by me, created very few opportunities from open play and couldn’t exploit any of them for a goal. While this was to be expected from their opponent, it is a worrying a trend I see emerging. Yamagata really crowded the MF and FCR lacked any creativity to unlock Yamagata defense. On a much lighter note, the last thing I noticed was that Keita Tanaka is really good at employing the so called “dark arts” of football. Dark Arts are considered to be deception, diving and professional fouls and I enjoy watching him work every week. I say this because he was almost booked for simulation when he was able to make it look as if he was dragged down in the box but the referee saw Tanaka hook the arm of the Yamagata defender and bring him down on tip of him.

In closing, nothing but praise for a job well done by FCR who were able to get positive points on the road against a tough opponent in harsh weather conditions. It is easy to be critical of FCR for making mistakes but this is the path of a newly promoted team who has been consistently asserting themselves over stronger competition this season. There will be struggles for sure, but with those struggles comes experience, and it is better to be at the top of the table earning points than starring up at it from the bottom wondering where and when you will earn the points needed to stave off relegation.

Match Day 5 Preview: Montedio Yamagata vs FCR

Match Day Info: 03/24/2019 (H) Montedio Yamagata vs FCR (A) at the ND Soft Stadium (Tendo, Yamagata Prefecture) Kickoff at 1400

Well here we are folks, FC Ryukyu on the road in the Yamagata prefecture chasing history. This will be a tough test for FCR this week as they face a very good squad in Montedio and have to do so in less than optimal conditions.

Weather Forecast: The forecast calls for snow earlier in the day followed by 40-degree temperatures with a 13 mph wind at kickoff. The weather will get colder throughout the game and there is a 40% chance of snow, so if you’re planning on attending, bundle up with warm clothes.

For those of you that don’t know, FCR is on the verge of completing an historic first for the J League. FCR would be the first team ever to win 5 consecutive matches after being promoted. Teams that have come close to this record, 4 wins in a row, have also gone on to be promoted to the next tier in Japanese football in a short time. However, this Yamagata squad will present a very difficult challenge to FCR this week and when you factor in very cold conditions on the road, FCR has a large number of obstacles to overcome.

Yamagata Montedio: 5^th in J2 W3D0L1; Recent Form: LWWW. Formation: 3-4-2-1.

The start of the season saw Montedio play their first 3 matches on the road. They lost their opening match to FC Gifu 2-0 and then have gone on to win all three of their matches and shutting out their opponents each time in those games. The past few weeks have seen Yamagata severely limit the opportunities of their opponent and that is worrying trend for an FCR side that has conceded a majority of possession to their opponents the past few weeks.

Against Gifu they almost jumped out to an early lead but were unlucky when they hit the post. Early in the second half the Gifu GK made a fine save when he was called into action by a well taken shot from #4 Kai Miki. Montedio made two costly mistakes shortly thereafter when they were playing it out from the back as well as losing possession in their own half that resulted in two goals for FC Gifu.

Yamagata was able to convert two set pieces for goals on the road against Yokohama FC on a day in which it seemed, at least from some highlights, that Yokohama had a majority of the possession and chances. However, two well placed set pieces by #4 Miki found #11 Sakano resulting in two goals. The first took a deflection off the Yokohama defender but the second was a very clean header in the box.

Montedio’s match against Machida Zelvia was their third consecutive match away from home. Side note, I have enjoyed watching the promoted teams of Zweigen Kanazawa, Renofa Yamaguchi, Machida Zelvia, Oita Trinita and Tochigi throughout the years as promoted J3 clubs, but that discussion is for a later time. Yamagata almost got on the scoreboard inside the first 2 minutes when #4 Miki once again delivered a dangerous ball into the box that #13 Shuhei Otsuki steered just wide of the net. A breakdown at the back by Machida, followed by yet another dangerous cross by #4 Miki, resulted in the first goal by #6 Takumi Yamada in the 20^th minute. Early in the second half, Yamagata almost scored from a corner and should’ve been awarded a PK for the defenders use of his hand and arm while on the touchline. Montedio’s second goal came off of a nice little play where #14 Takuya Honda was able to control a cross with two little flicks of his right boot, followed by #6 Tatsuhiro Sakamato running past the sleeping Zelvia defenders and then slipping it past the GK ,who was probably expecting his defenders to deal with that softly hit ball in the box. Yamagata’s third and final goal, unsurprisingly, came from a corner kick delivered by #4 Miki that found #9 Jefferson Baiano at the edge of the 6-yard box after a deflection. Baiano then delivered a very powerful header past the keeper.

Montedio finally had their first home game of the season against Omiya Ardija on match day 4. Yamagata once again found themselves in a position to take an early lead when #9 Baiano’s hold up play resulted in #10 Haruya Ide taking a very nice shot in which the Omiya GK had to make a quality save. The only goal of the game came from a PK when #9 Baiano overpowered the Omiya defenders and was dragged down inside the box with the ball. He converted the PK despite the Omiya GK getting his hands on it as it squeezed underneath him into the net. Omiya nearly tied the game during extra time in the first half but Yamagata were saved when the Ardija FW hit the post after rounding the keeper on a deflection. Omiya had two more chances on net late but it was the fine save by #21 Masatoshi Kushibiki off an Omiya header that secured the victory for Yamagata.

The worrying trend, at least from my vantage point, is that Yamagata only allows a few opportunities for their opponent to strike. FC Gifu was able to convert cheap giveaways into goals but Yokohoma FC were very wasteful with their opportunities considering they had the most chances of any of the teams I watched vs Yamagata. Machida Zelvia’s attack went missing for long periods of time and simply fell asleep the remainder of the match. Omiya had 3, maybe 3.5 chances but only really tested the keeper twice.

Players to Watch from Montedio Yamagata: #4 MF Kai Miki: Has a very nice shot but most importantly, he is top quality on set pieces. He delivers very nice, and very dangerous, set pieces and corners. #11 FW Toyofumi Sakano, scored both of Yamagata’s goals against Yokohama from set pieces provided by Miki. #9 Jefferson Baiano: Powerful FW that has scored in consecutive matches.

FC Ryukyu: 1^st Place in J2; W4L0D0. Recent Form: WWWW. Formation 4-2-3-1.

The local lads are riding high and carrying some serious momentum into their 5^th match of the season. FCR’s most recent victory saw them having to dig out a hard earned three points from a tough Tokushima Vortis side at home. Every week of the J2 season presents a new challenge to FCR but their early string of victories, and the manner in which they won them, has to be instilling a sense of confidence so desperately required for newly promoted sides.

FCR welcomed back both Masutani and Tomidokoro to the starting lineup last week and it was great to see them out there in the Bengara Red and Gold. Both looked a little rusty from their time away and it’s great they got that out of their system heading into a tough match up this week. I haven’t received any updates as to the status of Uejo after he was subbed off early in the second half against Tokushima from what looked to be a foot injury stemming from a scuffed shot.

Keys to FCR Victory: Really only two things can be said: 1.) FCR must maximize the limited opportunities Yamagata allows and 2.), FCR cannot not give up too many set pieces and corners. Unfortunately, FC Ryukyu’s’ style of play naturally tends to invite pressure by giving up set pieces and corners at the rapid rate. For those of us that have been following FCR all year it is evident that set pieces have been our Achilles heel. #4 Miki from Yamagata is lethal from set pieces and corners and I fear that when you combine #9 Baiano’s power in the box, it may be too much for FCR to handle.

Maybe the key to unlocking Yamagata should be changing the FCR lineup slightly to a 4-3-2-1 formation whereas FCR starts Fukui and Okazaki at center back so we have height, speed and power to deal with Yamagata’s height and power, and then FCR inserts another CDMF that can stop attacks as well as begin counter attacks. I doubt this will happen but will check the starting lineups, like all of you, at about 40 minutes prior to kick off to see how FCR is set up.

If there is a slight weakness to the Yamagata Side it may be their central defenders because it seems that the chances most sides got against Yamagata came from that area. This means #9 Suzuki must make hard runs against these two and then ask very tough questions of the Montedio goal keeper with well-aimed shots on net. The Yamagata GK hasn’t been asked to do much the past couple of weeks so FCR must be surgical when in the Montedio box. We have scored the most goals so far in J2 and if FCR hope to achieve a favorable result against Yamagata on the road, this trend will certainly need to continue.

Game Prediction: As evidenced by my last few entries I am not great at game predictions. As was the case for the last two matches, FCR has surprised me along with their opponents. With that in mind, I offer the following tiers of results for this match up.

Tier 4 Catastrophic Failure: FCR is absolutely demolished on the road from set pieces and the goal margin is greater than 2 in favor of Yamagata.

Tier 3 Respectable Result: FCR loses the match by only 1 goal. This could come in any form and would demonstrate resolve on the part of FCR as well as adding to their steep learning curve of the J2.

Tier 2 Favorable Outcome: FCR draws this match with any score line. Positive points on the road in a tough setting against a tough team is always great. Possibly sets up another historic moment for FCR the following week.

Tier 1 Historic Moment: FCR wins and sets a new J League record, massive for the club and community of Okinawa, enough said.

That’s it for Match Day 5. Come on BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!