It just goes to show you; that anything can happen on any given Sunday. FC Ryukyu pulled off the improbable this past Sunday afternoon when they defeated (3) V-Varen Nagasaki at the transcosmos Stadium in Nagasaki. The win, while not statistically important for FC Ryukyu, was a major boost to morale for a side that lost 2 out of their last 3 games to teams above them in the table. However, the loss has put a slight dent in the promotion hopes of V-Varen Nagasaki who now sit 5 points clear of Avispa Fukuoka in the promotion zone.
FC Ryukyu MF Shuto Kawai: Shuto scored the lone goal of this match and he was doing his best in the first half to get in and around the Nagasaki defense. He had several chances to score in the first half, which we would like to see him convert in the future, so hopefully this sets him up for a nice run in to close the 2020 campaign.
Review of the Keys to Victoryfor FC Ryukyu
1. V-Varen Nagasaki must overlook FC Ryukyu: Likelihood 1. Well Nagasaki may have done just that on Sunday. They didn’t field a totally weakened lineup, but they also didn’t look like the free scoring side we’ve seen in the previous rounds.
Match Day Prediction
I said it should have been Nagasaki with the big win. Somewhere in the vicinity of 4-1, but happily it ended 0-1 in favor of FC Ryukyu.
Match Day 34 Takeaways
1. This game was filled with drama as there were some missed calls that could have drastically altered the final result. First, there is a chance that the ball rolled over the line before Ren Ikeda passed it to Kawai on the lone FC Ryukyu goal. Second, there was a chance that Fukui committed a foul in the box that would have given Nagasaki a PK and a chance at tying the game. Finally, there was the double kick to the face on Taguchi by Ibarbo that could have warranted a booking. Convincing arguments could be made for both sides on each play but until there is VAR in J2, we will have to live with these types of decisions on a weekly basis.
2. I said in the preview that if FC Ryukyu wished to net anything positive from this game, it would require Koizumi creating chances, Uesato possibly scoring from the FK spot, and Koya’s ability to finish if we were without Abe. Well, Koya did not score but Abe came dangerously close in the first half. Uesato had a nice FK saved that would have given us the lead, and his replacement Koki Kazama, nearly netted a free kick in stoppage time as well. But the biggest takeaway has to be the chances that Koizumi created.
He set Kawai free on an excellent long through ball in the first half; spotted Abe for the dangerous shot that nearly went in; and was the one who provided the pass to Ikeda in the box that ultimately led to the Kawai goal.
FC Ryukyu head to Nagasaki to face a side that: has won 4 in a row; are undefeated in 7 straight games; have only lost once in their past 10 matches; and scored 14 goals during their last 4 games!
Match Day 33 Recap: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama (5-0)
V-Varen Nagasaki: Within reach of returning to the J1, V-Varen Nagasaki will look to keep pace, or even make up some ground on leaders Tokushima Vortis, when they face FC Ryukyu on Sunday. Nagasaki finished 12th in the table in 2019 after coming down from J1 and they split the series with FC Ryukyu with consecutive 3-2 wins for both sides. These two teams last faced each other on Match Day 5 in very poor conditions here in Okinawa with the game ending 1-1.
I made the mistake last week of saying that FC Ryukyu had experienced a modicum of success against Avispa Fukuoka in the past and therefore they may play them tough and even eek out a win. Well I am not that confident in that same sentiment this week even though it rings true based on past results. July was a long time ago, and V-Varen Nagasaki are peaking at just the right time aided by some of the best players in J2.
Do not be fooled into thinking Nagasaki lack a true goal scorer by the table above which indicates their isn’t one player in double digit goals for the number three side in the table. Nagasaki are well supplied with talent and any number of players can score from almost anywhere on the pitch. In the likely event that V-Varen Nagasaki follows in the footsteps of many other sides, who rotated the squad against FC Ryukyu, they can still field a very potent lineup.
The addition of Edigar Junio to this side makes the prospect of netting even a point on Sunday for FC Ryukyu, an almost impossible task. Junio – who has taken up the role of talisman for Nagasaki – has scored 4 times, while adding 1 assist, in the 4 games since his signing this fall. FC Ryukyu’s defenders will struggle to contain Junio and they will still have to contend with Ibarbo, Togashi, Cesar, Tamada, Luan, and Maikuma.
FC Ryukyu: Winners of 4 out of their last 7, all of FC Ryukyu’s losses occurred on the road during that stretch. The lone 3-0 win over Omiya Ardija away from Okinawa stands out as an outlier as FC Ryukyu only scored 2 goals, compared to 8 goals conceded, in the three losses. Without Takuma Abe anchoring the attack up top, FC Ryukyu have struggled for goals.
FC Ryukyu came close to scoring first against Fukuoka but Koizumi was denied by the post. What may have seemed like FC Ryukyu taking charge of the latter stages of the most recent game, was actually nothing more than Avispa Fukuoka sitting on their laurels while enjoying a 3 goal lead.
Ren Ikeda has filled in at striker during Abe’s absence, but it has not produced the results Higuchi might have hoped for. Ikeda can be out of position at times, as evidenced by some of the passes where the attacking midfielders expected him to be, only to see those passes end up as turnovers in the box.
It is obvious that FC Ryukyu must look elsewhere for that spark up top, with the logical choice being Shinya Uehara. If you recall last season, Shinya filled in at fullback due to injuries at the position, so he is more than capable of playing the full match. But since we still do not know why Abe has been left off the roster this past week, Higuchi may be forced into resting Uehara as much as he can in case of a lengthy return to fitness for Abe. Keep in mind, Uehara is our only healthy striker at this point in the season.
If FC Ryukyu wish to net anything positive from this match, they will need to rely on Koizumi creating chances; Koya finishing drives; and Uesato scoring from the free kick spot.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. V-Varen Nagasaki must overlook FC Ryukyu: Likelihood 1. Unfortunately, that is all I could come up with. It cannot be anything else as we know about Nagasaki’s quality, and FC Ryukyu simply cannot match them skill for skill. Our hopes rest on Nagasaki looking past this match and towards future tougher contests. But even that seems highly unlikely when you consider their upcoming opponents are JEF UTD Chiba and Matsumoto Yamaga F.C.
Match Day 34 Prediction
If Abe does not make the lineup, or the reserves, this one could end badly if the flood gates burst open for the FC Ryukyu defense. V-Varen Nagasaki are the joint-second top scoring team in J2 this year while FC Ryukyu are third worst when it comes to surrendering goals. FC Ryukyu’s away goal difference is quite bad and on a short week, this doesn’t bode well for the boys from Okinawa. 4-1 for V-Varen Nagasaki.
(1) Tokushima Vortis travel to (7) Montedio Yamagata in what should be a tightly contested match. Any wobble by Vortis will allow (2) Avispa Fukuoka, and (3) V-Varen Nagasaki to gain crucial ground on them as Fukuoka and Nagasaki play teams at the bottom of the table. (4) Ventforet Kofu join Fukuoka and Nagasaki as they also have a relatively easy test against (21) Ehime FC.
Let us end this entry on an a positive, uplifting idea. I want you all to consider that every once in awhile in sports, a much stronger team will overlook their weaker opponent. That weaker opponent can sometimes shell-shock that stronger opponent when they quickly post some early points, thus, forcing the stronger side to recover from an unexpected punch in the mouth. Often times these stronger teams cannot recover because they were unprepared for that level of performance by their opponent. This means that any team has a fighting chance on any given day. Can that happen on Sunday? Well, “all we need is a miracle.”
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