Match Day 14 Report: (2) FC Ryukyu vs (17) Tochigi SC #FC琉球

Photo Credit: @bengala_viola

Intro

As the race for the top continues to tighten, Ryukyu walked away with all three points on Saturday night when they defeated Tochigi SC 4-2. Ryukyu fell behind early from a goal on a corner kick but responded with two quick goals from Shintaro Shimizu and Kazumasa Uesato to put Ryukyu in the lead. However, Ryukyu surrendered a second goal late in the first half and were in danger of dropping points at home until Shunsuke Motegi’s “hate-seeking’ missile broke the deadlock late in the second half. Then Yong Jick netted his first ever goal for Ryukyu on a set piece that put the match out of reach for Tochigi.

  1. Highlights
  2. Man of the Match
  3. Review of the Keys to Victory
  4. Prediction
  5. Talking Points
  6. Round 14 in J2
  7. Conclusion

1. Match Day Highlights

2. Man of the Match

FC Ryukyu Mid Fielder Shunsuke Motegi: He scored what was ultimately the winner for Ryukyu, and it was a very nice goal at that, and was involved in the set piece that netted Yong Jick’s goal. Had Shintaro Shimizu got the header on target from Motegi’s dead ball cross, he could have had an even bigger day.

3. Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Bombs away. Likelihood 4. I’d say so.

2. Follow up the shots that are saved with more shots. Likelihood 3. Ryukyu’s opening goal by Shintaro Shimizu is a perfect example of this as was Yong Jick’s redirection from the Ren Ikeda shot at the end.

3. Play it safe when playing out from the back. Likelihood 3. Ryukyu had a difficult time breaking the high press from Tochigi but were able to slowly make their way up the pitch with passes among the two center backs and Uesato.

4. Don’t forget about the old Route 1. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu heavily favored attacking down the right side but the Shintaro goal stands out as the one that was most directly down the middle as it was Koki’s shot from just outside the box that rang the crossbar.

4. Prediction

Tipped Ryukyu to win 3-1 and seeing how they did win by two goals, I’ll take a draw this round. Season Record 6-3-5.

5. Talking points from Round 14

1. Don’t be fooled by all that possession. Ryukyu had an insane amount of possession on Saturday night but a majority of that was them inch worming out of their own end. Tochigi’s high press resulted in Okazaki, Chinen and Uesato registering 400 combined successful passes, or roughly half of the total passes by Ryukyu on the night. Still, outside of one turnover by Ryukyu that required a nice save by Taguchi, Ryukyu were composed and took their time to pick their spots.

2.  Tochigi looked dangerous in the opening half but then faded away. Obviously with such little possession, Tochigi did well with the little opportunities they were afforded. Their first goal was the result of Okazaki being involved in a pick play were the man he was marking cut across him to knock him off his spot thus leaving Daichi Inui wide open to bury the header. However, Tochigi’s second goal was a thing of beauty when Yuki Nishiya did well to control the cross and then strike an absolute cracking goal. But in the end, Tochigi had to resort to shots from distance to generate any pressure on net and none threatened the Ryukyu goal.

3. Yong Jick has become an asset as a late defensive sub for Ryukyu. While he is the most likely candidate to fill in for either center back, Yong Jick is much more useful as defensive midfielder late in games. He adds the element of height in both the defense, as well as in the attack, of set pieces.

4. Abe’s absence from the squad. Ryukyu announced earlier in the week that a top team player had tested positive for COVID-19. Then there was the sight of Abe leaving the Ehime match with a heavily wrapped leg with what looked to be an ice pack on his right hamstring. We do not know whether Abe was the player who tested positive, nor do we know if he is dealing with an injury that could see him miss the all-important Albirex Niigata match in two weeks, but his absence doesn’t bode well for the side. I think we all hope this was just a rest/maintenance day for the talisman and nothing more.

5. Shunsuke Motegi has played a total of 41′ this season but has a pair of goals and contributed to a third from the own goal at SC Sagamihara. I think his time is coming to take over the LM spot for Ryukyu but he’ll need to get more minutes under his belt. There is no doubt we are seeing the dangerous player that Motegi can be which makes his inclusion in the squad, but going unused in games when Ryukyu are trailing, all the more perplexing. If Abe misses any more time, Motegi could provide the spark the offense needs during games.

6. Where we stand at the 1/3 mark of the season. Ryukyu have one less shutout in their last seven games compared to the first seven; they have been shutout one more time these past seven than the first seven; they also have two games where they conceded multiple goals, but have one more game where they scored more than three goals in a game in games 8-14. At times it seems as if Ryukyu both play up, and down to some of their competition but that is typical for any side in a season. They’ve taken seven points off of sides inside the top six and are tied with Albirex Niigata for the second most points ever by a J2 side at this point in the season.

6. Round 14 in J2

Albirex Niigata suffered their first loss of the season 2-1 to FC Machida Zelvia which puts them level on points with FC Ryukyu, and only one point above Kyoto Sanga. Kyoto defeated Mito Hollyhock without the services of Peter Utaka which sets up a massive game between these two teams next week. Jubilo Iwata and Ventforet Kofu both won 1-0 at home thus not changing any of the standings for teams three through five.

It is extremely tight at the top with three teams only separated by a point and who will play one another over the next two rounds. At the bottom, it is a five horse race with those sides all sitting on eleven points.

7. Conclusion

As we witnessed this past round, the teams at the top cannot afford to drop any points as the race for promotions is so tight. To their credit, Ryukyu overcame an early deficit and finished the game strong which has put them level with the leaders. But before we can consider ourselves fortunate, and way before we can consider the job done, Ryukyu need to beat a Montedio Yamagata side that has a perfect record when facing Ryukyu. In fact, they have scored three or more goals against Ryukyu on three occasions since 2019. This will be no easy match for Ryukyu ahead of Niigata despite Yamagata’s current place in the table.

Match Day 14 Preview: (2) FC Ryukyu vs (16) Tochigi SC 5/15/21 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu will look to get back to winning ways this week as they face off against Tochigi SC on Saturday. Dating back to their time in the J3 in 2016, each side own an even split of 2 wins, 2 losses, and 4 draws. FC Ryukyu swept the series in 2019 with Tochigi SC getting the better of Ryukyu last year with a 2-2 draw and a 4-1 drubbing of Ryukyu at home. Both of these sides enter the match on the heels of 1-1 draws on the road but Tochigi SC have not won in their last 7 matches. Each side is hungry for a win, and it is vital that Ryukyu leave this game with all three points.

FC RYUKYU VERSUS TOCHIGI SC PREVIEW
  1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Info
  2. Previous Match Day Highlights
  3. Team Previews
    • FC Ryukyu
    • Tochigi SC
  4. Keys to Victory
  5. Prediction
  6. Round 14 in J2
  7. Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from the Club

Not bad, for here at least.

Okinawa has extended the priority prevention measures until May 30th so no visiting fans and all kickoff times are moved back to 1800.

Click>>> Match Day Info from FC Ryukyu

2. Previous Match Day Highlights

Ehime FC 1-1 FC Ryukyu
FC Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Tochigi SC

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: I may have been a bit premature to sound the alarm on Ryukyu’s recent drop in shots on target after reading a tweet from @Data_Swan who indicated Ryukyu own the second best shot rate just behind league leaders Albirex Niigata. While this has certainly calmed some of my own fears, I’d still like to see them pound the net against the teams that sit lower than them in the standings. As we all witnessed last week, if you allow teams to hang around in games, you run the inherit risk of letting them right back into it, which results in dropping points along the way.

I assume most of the outfield players recovered from the three games in eight days from last week and are match fit for this round. FC Ryukyu have not totally escaped the injury bug this year as right back Makito Uehara tore is hamstring a couple weeks back and is another six weeks away from retuning to training. But Dany Carvajal is looking good in his recovery from a stress fracture so that bodes well. Abe was seen leaving the pitch last week with his leg heavily wrapped but we’ve all seen him recover from worse looking injuries and that was probably more maintenance than anything else. If Abe is truly no worse for wear, than this game sets up well for him to snap his goalless streak as Tochigi have plenty of holes at the back for Abe to exploit.

This round comes down to whether or not Numata and Tanaka can provide the service that Abe needs inside the box. As I’ll discuss in the Keys to Victory Section, Tochigi allow plenty of dangerous crosses into the box, and so long as Ryukyu can break Tochigi’s high press, this should lead to plenty of goal scoring chances for Ryukyu. Ryukyu knocked on the door all game last week but couldn’t find the second goal that would have decided the game. I think with the extra day to prepare, and since Ryukyu are playing at home, we should see a return to the type of performance that has gotten us to this point.

So yeah, it’s been a bit of a bumpy ride the last few games for Ryukyu as they’ve conceded more goals in their last five games than they did in the previous eight. They’ve scored three less goals than their opening seven fixtures and eared two fewer wins while suffering their lone loss of the season. Granted they’ve played one fewer game in these comparisons between rounds 1-7 and 8-13, but Ryukyu can right the ship with a strong performance on Saturday against Tochigi. Ryukyu have two home games in a row, have a great opportunity to put some separation between themselves and the rest of the pack, while the other top teams tear each other part over the next two rounds, and that means generating some momentum with wins before heading into Niigata.

Tochigi SC: Tochigi SC have experienced a bit of a see-saw season to date as they opened the 2021 campaign with three losses, followed by three straight wins, and then reeled off four draws in a row. That seven game unbeaten run pulled them out of the relegation zone, however, those are Tochigi’s only wins to date. Tochigi SC are not the same defensive side they were last year when they went twenty games before conceding their 16th goal, a number they have already matched inside 13 games. Though the defensive partnership of Tashiro and Yanagi was broken up with Tashiro’s departure to Sagan Tosu in the offseason, Yasutaka Yanagi made his loan move from Albirex Niigata permanent and is now the captain of Tochigi.

Tochigi went three draws with two defeats in their last five games. Tochigi played to a spirited 2-2 draw with Albirex Niigata after surrendering the equalizer in the second minute of stoppage time. Tochigi did not look overmatched against the current table toppers and in fact, looked a bit better than their guests that night. They followed the Niigata draw with yet another draw to Kanazawa where Tochigi came storming back in the second half. There was a slight half chance at the end of that game for Tochigi to win it but the attacker was pressed for time and had to get a shot off quickly from distance.

Tochigi’s third game in a row against a top half team ended in a 3-2 defeat to Iwata despite Iwata losing the lead on two occasions. On loan Juninho provided the most memorable moment from that day with a half court shot into an empty net after Iwata failed to clear their lines. Then, Tochigi lost their early lead thanks to a stunning freekick by the guests, before nearly winning it in stoppage time when the saved shot popped out just past Rimu Matsuoka legs. But Tochigi went on to suffer the indignity of giving up a late winner (95′) after two minutes later. Tochigi’s last game with FC Mito Hollyhock ended in one all draw from a Kenya Onodera own goal, which was a bit harsh. Truth be told, Mito should’ve won the game a lot earlier when Mito’s Masato Nakayama missed a close in chip and then later hit the woodwork.

Kisho Yano is a tall striker that can get onto balls in the box and is a player Ryukyu need to watch out for on Saturday. The same could be said for midfielder Toshiki Mori who leads Tochigi in scoring with 4 goals, and left back Yukuto Omoya who leads the team in assists (3). But Tochigi are averaging one goal a game and have been prone to dry spells this season.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Bombs away. Likelihood 4. Tochigi surrenders more goals from set pieces (5) than crosses (3), but both Numata and Tanaka should have plenty of time and space to pick their spots this week. In their five prior games, Tochigi were affording their opponent every opportunity to score from crosses and that is Ryukyu’s strength.

2. Follow up the shots that are saved with more shots. Likelihood 3. There were a couple of times when Tochigi failed to clear a ball after set pieces which allowed their opponents to follow up with shots and goals. Tochigi seem to move slow after the initial cross after a set piece is blocked so Ryukyu need to remain engaged and hurry to all loose balls.

3. Play it safe when playing out from the back. Likelihood 3. Tochigi somehow are better defensively in the opposition’s half than their own. The Tochigi forward players press really well and cause all sorts of turnovers that allow Tochigi to execute quick counter attacks. Ryukyu, who prefer to play out from the back, cannot afford any wayward passes or turnovers leading to cheap goals.

4. Don’t forget about the old Route 1. Likelihood 2. Tochigi allowed two goals in consecutive games in the matches I watched where the opposing striker literally drove right down the middle of the Tochigi defense and scored. Hopefully we see Abe do the same on Saturday.

5. Prediction

Last week Tochigi scored three goals in their two road games and own a better goal scoring record away from Tochigi, but they also concede the same amount of goals regardless of location. Ryukyu have only conceded twice while playing at home and were just off the mark the last two rounds. I think Ryukyu gets back on target and takes this one 3-1. Season Record 6-2-5.

6. Round 14 in J2

All Times Listed are Japan Standard

There should be plenty of fireworks this week as 6 of the top 8 sides face off against one another. (1) Albirex Niigata have a real test on their hands this week as they travel to face (6) FC Machida Zelvia for the curtain closer on Sunday. This is also the start of three games in a row against top six sides for Niigata. (3) Kyoto Sanga FC has no easy pass this week either as they welcome in plucky (7) FC Mito Hollyhock. Mito is currently unbeaten in their last 3 games but that pales in comparison to Kyoto’s run of 8 games without tasting defeat. (4) Jubilo Iwata is the only other team inside the top 8, Ryukyu included, who face off against lower seeded side in (20) Thespakusatsu Gunma.

(5) Ventforet Kofu need to be careful of giant killing (8) Mito Hollyhock who are unbeaten (1 win/1 draw) against top six sides, which could’ve been two wins if not for a late stoppage time goal by Iwata last week. Finally, (17) Montedio Yamagata will host (18) Ehime FC on Sunday for the free J-League International YouTube broadcast. Link can be found below the infographic.

Click>>> J-League Int’l YouTube Channel

7. Conclusion

A big week inside the top half of the table and an important one for FC Ryukyu as there could be plenty of shifting around them in the standings come Sunday night. Rested, motivated, and ready to bust out. That’s what we all want to see on Saturday.