MD21 Preview: (14) Zweigen Kanazawa vs (4) FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu enter Match Day 21 coming off their second biggest win of the season where they defeated Matsumoto Yamaga FC 4-0 at home. It is a different set of circumstances for Zweigen Kanazawa who enter this round on the heels of their second largest defeat when they lost 1-4 on the road to Montedio Yamagata. But Zweigen Kanazawa own a very good record overall against Ryukyu as they have yet to lose to the visitors since 2014 when they were both in the J3.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Previous Round Highlights
Team Previews
- Zweigen Kanazawa
- FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 21 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from Zweigen Kanazawa

No changes for the way things have been since late May with Okinawa under a state of emergency.

Click>>> Match Day 21 Info from Zweigen Kanazawa

2. Previous Match Highlights

Montedio Yamagata 4-1 Zweigen Kanazawa

FC Ryukyu 4-0 Matsumoto Yamaga F.C.

3. Team Previews

Zweigen Kanazawa: I must admit, I wasn’t able to prepare for the opposing team’s preview as I normally would have this week so I sought some help from the most knowledgeable Zweigen Kanazawa fan I know. And with that I give you James Taylor from @kanazawadreamin who is doing double duty as he also made his J-Talk Extra Time debut this week with Stuart.

Although we lost heavily at Yamagata last week, I wouldn’t expect Zweigen manager Masaaki Yanagishita to make many changes to the starting lineup. Maybe one or two, but wholesale changes are not really his style. Our tactics will be the same as usual 4-4-2, defending tightly and pressuring FC Ryukyu when they have the ball, then trying to hit them on a quick counterattack. We are a very hardworking team. Up until last week our defense had been pretty tight in the league, only once conceding more than 2 goals in a game, and only once losing by more than a goal.

The defense is prone to conceding early goals though as we lead the league with 7 goals against in the opening 15 minutes of matches. We also have a habit of losing concentration at crucial times, for example the long throw for Tochigi’s equalizer or the equalizer that Gunma scored. Expect most of our attacks to be funneled down the left, through Rodolfo, who has been playing well since his return after a long term injury. On the other side, Riku Matsuda is growing into the full back role, and Shintaro Shimada has 4 goals and 5 assists from the right wing. Our shots-to-goals conversion rate is quite good, I think, but we have a tendency to run out of ideas quickly if the opposition is content to let us have the ball. This is a factor in our poor record in games where we concede first (1 win, 1 draw, 9 losses).

FC Ryukyu: It was good to see the offense come alive last week as it will be required yet again heading into this match. Ryukyu are likely to be without starting RB Keita Tanaka this round due to an injury he picked up last week. Still no word on whether Tanaka is healthy, or hurt, but I would guess we see Yuya Torikai, Makito Uehara, or Felipe Tavares make the starting eleven and reserves.

Ryukyu have yet to beat Zweigen Kanazawa during their time in J2, and in fact, you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a time when FC Ryukyu defeated Kanazawa. Zweigen swept the series last year with both sides seeing out draws in 2019. Though Kanazawa has dropped off as of late, they represent a mental hurdle that Ryukyu must overcome which puts this match in the must win territory for the points over/under expectation table.

Last week it was Kiyotake, Abe and Koya leading the way for Ryukyu as each had at least 2-points on the night. Shimizu wasn’t involved as much in this game as he has been in previous matches, but his pairing up top with Abe in Ryukyu’s new 4-4-2 formation does provide a lot of space for both attackers to move in and around the box. And Shintaro has some get up in his game as he can really rise to meet headers over taller players. It seems unlikely that Ryukyu will revert back to a 4-2-3-1 until Ikeda is healthy, though Kazaki Nakagawa did make his first appearance for the club in a couple of months when he featured in the midweek Elite League match at Avispa. He could easily fill that vacated CAM role but that is solely dependent on Higuchi’s decision to include him in the lineup. Something he has opted not to do at all this year.

Ryukyu currently have four players recovering from injury and here is an updated timeline as to their progress. GK Dany Carvajal has been sidelined with a stress fracture since early march and is roughly two weeks away from the return timetable the club posted. He has been seen at training but there is no indication he is ready to return to the lineup. GK Junto Taguchi is at the halfway point (5 weeks) of his timetable to return from a broken bone in his hand and has been seen doing individual drills at practice. Ren Ikeda is only three weeks into his recovery for a fractured hip and though the timeline suggests a 10-12 week recovery, I think Ren has a long road ahead of him to get back on the pitch. The player with the chance to return the soonest is Ryohei Okazaki who is now at week six of his 6-8 week timetable recovering from a pulled muscle in his leg. It would be great to get our starting CB pairing back in time to close out the first half and change of the season.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

Start the festivities early. Likelihood 3. After reading what James said about Kanazawa conceding early, and their overall record when they concede first, seems there’s no clearer path to victory for FC Ryukyu. Question becomes, can they do it?
Defend the Right side. Likelihood 2. There is a very real possibility that Ryukyu will start Yuya Torikai and Yong Jick on the right side of our defense this week, which will play right into the strengths of the Zweigen attack. Not much we can do at this point other than hope our right side holds under the pressure.

5. Prediction

Zweigen has scored two goals against Ryukyu in the last three games these teams have played whereas Ryukyu has managed that feat only once. Could things go differently this week with Zweigen having conceded 6 goals in their past 2 games? If you recall the last time Ryukyu entered an away game off of a big win, they were decimated 0-3. I think that will change this week, but I also think this could be a barn burner ending in 2-2 a draw. Season Record 6-5-9.

6. Round 21 in J2

No easy draws for the top two sides this week as leaders (1) Kyoto Sanga FC host (8) V-Varen Nagasaki with the matchup of the week featuring (2) Jubilo Iwata facing (3) Albirex Niigata at home. Possibly no shifting at the bottom of the table at the mid season turn as all the sides face an uphill battle this week. There are two free broadcasts this round with (10) FC Mito Hollyhock at home to (15) Renofa Yamaguchi on Saturday and then (19) Ehime FC vs (13) Blaublitz Akita on Sunday. Click>>> J-League International YouTube Channel.

7. Conclusion

Despite their differences in the standings this will be no cake walk for Ryukyu as they’ve had limited success against Kanazawa to date. Ryukyu are doing all they can to make it to the break on maximum points despite the numerous injuries to the starting eleven, but they cannot use that as an excuse. The remaining schedule is favorable for Ryukyu but they cannot afford to play down to the level of their competition dropping valuable points along the way. Instead, they need to smash and grab as many goals in the next three games starting with Kanazawa on Saturday.

Thanks once more to James for bailing me out during this busy week and please give him a follow on his Twitter account as well as a listen on the J-Talk Extra Time podcast.

MD20 Report: FC Ryukyu vs Matsumoto Yamaga FC #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu shook off their 0-3 loss to Fagiano Okayama the previous round by hammering Matsumoto Yamaga FC 4-0 this past Saturday. Kiyotake became the fifth (as far as I can find) player in FC Ryukyu history to score a hat trick in a game and nearly came close to equaling Yuta Togashi’s single game record for goals scored (4) when another one of his shots rang the crossbar. The only real shame was that none of the FC Ryukyu fans could enjoy one of this team’s biggest wins this season as they are still not allowed to attend games in person while Okinawa is under a state of emergency.

Highlights
Man of the Match
Review of the Keys to Victory
Prediction
Talking Points
Round 20 in J2
Conclusion

1. Match Highlights

2. Man of the Match

FC Ryukyu Mid Fielder Koki Kiyotake: Scoring a hat trick and getting Ryukyu a vital three points in the process.

3. Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Just score more goals than Matsumoto. Likelihood 3. Nailed it! At one point in the game FC Ryukyu had three players sitting on two points each. Kiyotake with 2 goals; Koya with a goal and an assist; and Abe with two assists.

4. Prediction

Was hoping for a 1-0 win and they exceeded that expectation. Season Record 6-5-9.

5. Talking Points from Round 20

1. Possible Injury to Tanaka. Seeing how things went so well for Ryukyu, the only thing to discuss is the potential injury suffered by starting RB Keita Tanaka in the second half. Tanaka was subbed off for Uehara in the 56′ minute where he was seen describing an injury to his left leg while sitting on the opposite sideline. Tanaka was eventually carted off due to the injury and there is no telling what occurred, the severity, or the length of time he may miss. We’ve seen plenty of players both walk off under their own power, only to spend weeks recovering from injury, as well those that have been carted off and return the following week. Tanaka’s absence will be felt throughout the entire side as he is such a key member of the team. The likely replacements are Yuya Torikai, Makito Uehara, Felipe Tavares – individuals who all participated in the midweek Elite League Match at Avispa Fukuoka – and possibly Shinya Uehara. Though Shinya did play RB in 2019 when we dealt with injuries to the RB position, that would leave FC Ryukyu extremely thin at forward considering they are playing a 4-4-2 these days with both Shintaro and Abe up top.

6. Round 20 in J2

Kyoto and Iwata both won to extend their lead over Niigata and Ryukyu to 3/4 points. Niigata’s 0-0 draw means Ryukyu are now within 1-point of Niigata. Zelvia and Kofu’s huge wins mean they both maintain their 4-point gap between themselves and FC Ryukyu. Omiya Ardija’s first win in over three months means they are at least within striking distance of pulling out of the relegation zone.

7. Conclusion

FC Ryukyu are on one heck of a rollercoaster ride these days having won 3-0, lost 0-3, and then the recent 4-0 victory. Ryukyu have three more matches before they break for the Summer Olympics in which they will need to earn all 9-points. Only four points back from the leaders, and one off Niigata, Ryukyu are still in the hunt for promotion. But with Kyoto and Iwata showing no signs of slowing down these days, Ryukyu need to max out the points in these next three fixtures to keep pace with the top teams in J2.

FC Ryukyu Squad Review Part 1: Defense #FC琉球

This will be a 3-part series covering the defensive, mid field, and forward and goalie positions. I open this series by taking a look at the back line of FC Ryukyu. I will provide a brief synopsis for any player that featured for FC Ryukyu this year, as well as my thoughts on who we should try to retain at the end of each section. With that in mind, let’s get started.

The Center Backs

Lee Yong-Jick: Lee was the preferred 1^st choice CB for Higuchi all season as indicated by his 37 starts, and 1 substitute appearance. CB is not Yong-Jick’s natural position and I suppose that is why he was often out of position, in addition to making some ill-advised, ill-timed challenges that quickly led to the opposition breaking on net with numbers. Yong-Jick’s most memorable moment occurred during his first ever game for the club when he prevented a 2^nd JEF UTD Chiba goal from a Taguchi turnover, by sprinting back to his own net and heading the shot away. Yong-Jick was also not much of weapon on set pieces despite his obvious height advantage. He scored 0 goals and provided 1 assist this year. I am not sure how the club is going to proceed with Lee in the offseason but I could see him returning for 2021.

Daisei Suzuki: Suzuki transferred to FC Ryukyu via a loan from Tokushima Vortis in the offseason but I believe that he joined on a permanent deal shortly after the season restart this summer. Suzuki appeared in 20 games while dealing with some injuries and drops in form. Make no mistake, Suzuki is a raw player and never really progressed in spite of all the playing time he received this year. Like Yong-Jick, he is prone to turnovers and mental mistakes. He does possess some aggressiveness and speed, but if he is to develop any further, he’ll need better coaching and probably some added muscle.

Tetsuya Chinen: Chinen is the fastest CB that FC Ryukyu have in the lineup. He is also the strongest, though a mid-season break with CV-19 took a bit out of him, which is to be expected. He is quick to close down players, can put in good challenges when called upon, and can score goals. His only knock is that he isn’t as tall as some of the other CBs in the league, but that can be overcome with his speed and technique. If I were to tip a player that should be in the starting 11 next year, it would be Chinen so look for him to improve on the 11 appearances he made in 2020.

Ryohei Okazaki: Okazaki only featured 5 times for FC Ryukyu this year but that was due to lengthy absences stemming from multiple injuries. We all should remember Okazaki from 2019 and a lot of those memories were not that good. But Higuchi has faith in this player, and seems to think he can one day develop into an integral part of the Ryukyu defense. Like Suzuki, Okazaki needs better coaching and technique to progress or he will become more of a liability, than asset, in defense.

Ryoji Fukui: Fukui is your prototypical Swiss Army Knife in that he can play all 4 defensive positions. He still possesses a bit of speed to close down attackers, when chasing them that is, but his tackling always makes you hold your breath as it borders on reckless. Luckily, Fukui came out on top this year as he wasn’t sent off, but he had a few close calls. Fukui turned 33 this year so I am not sure how much longer he is going to be around.

The Full Backs

Keita Tanaka: The hands down 2020 comeback player of the year for the club, Tanaka was arguably one of our best players. Tanaka played in 34 games, added 2 goals and 6 assists, but it was his switch to RB on Match Day 5 that stands out as his biggest contribution. Ryukyu had plenty of talent in the midfield and it was always going to prove difficult to shoehorn in all of them barring injury. This type of switch will not work for every player, but Tanaka has the temperament, skill, and tenacity that few others possess. He is extremely aggressive in the attack and in defense, has a great shot, and is an excellent passer. His partnership with Koya down the right really allowed Higuchi’s attacking style to flourish. Tanaka has been a stalwart at FC Ryukyu for many years and I hope to see him again in 2021.

Keigo Numata: Signed from Kanazawa in the offseason, Numata had the task of replacing Tokumoto at LB. Numata ended up playing in 39 games where he scored 3 goals, at least two were from headers, and provided 6 assists. There were a few times where it looked like Numata’s fitness let him down, but that is expected with an older player who played nearly every minute of every game. Maybe with a lighter fixture schedule in 2021, Numata will be a little fresher and offer slightly more, but that is anyone’s guess.

Yuya Torikai: Yuya was the starting RB to begin the season but was eventually usurped by Tanaka. Torikai rejoined FC Ryukyu in the 2019 summer transfer window and bolstered the side in the midst of several poor results. This year, he wasn’t nearly as valuable and has become expendable with Tanaka’s emergence at RB. At 32, with a decline in performance and the talent at RB on the current roster, we may see his departure.

Makito Uehara: The younger Uehara is the best young prospect in defense for FC Ryukyu, and possibly the team. Uehara featured in 15 games and scored a thunderous goal against Omiya. Like several players requiring better coaching, Makito is raw but has far more skills and traits then those of his defensive counterparts. He is tall for a fullback, and has a nice burst to add to his long-distance speed. I don’t think he is a true fullback, as we never saw the touch that someone like Tanaka and Numata possess. Uehara, as I’ve said all year, could be a phenomenal central defensive mid fielder that could handle many of the stronger CBs in J2. He is good at tackling, strong enough to win contested challenges, and could win aerial battles. It would be a shame to let his talents become wasted behind the much better fullbacks of Tanaka and Tavares, so a switch to CDM could really benefit him and the club.

Felipe Tavares: Signed from Brazil in the offseason, I though Tavares would push for a starting role. He did start the very first game of 2020, looked good in both the attack and defense, but then strangely disappeared from the lineup for well over 10 months. Thanks to Tanaka’s emergence as a crucial part to Higuchi’s attacking philosophy, I don’t think we’ll see Tavares making many starts outside of an occasional rest for Tanaka. I still think he needs to be rostered in 2021 as he can be an asset on set pieces, but he doesn’t not have the touch that Tanaka offers.

2021 Outlook

Keep: Tanaka, Numata, Chinen, Suzuki, Tavares, Uehara, and Yong-Jick. Yong-Jick never really figured out the CB role this year but he did stay healthy enough to play nearly every game. Maybe he’ll figure it out next year, but at age 30, it is unlikely. He, along with several other players, can probably be kept at relatively low wages, but that means we should be spending on some better defenders in the offseason. Tanaka and Numata are likely to open the season as our starting fullbacks with Tavares and Uehara as prospect players. We may one day see the partnership of Chinen and Suzuki at CB, but for now, they fall into the developmental category.

Let them Walk, or, Retain at low costs: Okazaki, Torikai and Fukui. Fukui offers limited upside but can play across multiple positions and fill in as injures mount. Torikai is likely to move on as he is well behind the other RBs currently rostered and 32 years of age. Okazaki has never developed into an effective CB and at 28, can be safely let go.

Gut Feeling: Despite the reduction in goals allowed from 2019 to 2020, defense is our top priority this offseason. The position can no longer be ignored for sake of attacking football. Yong-Jick, Okazaki, and Fukui will likely be retained as they are favorites of Higuchi. Suzuki, barring a return to Vortis, will also stay. FC Ryukyu have a strange way about them when it comes to foreign players so we could see the departure of Tavares for no reason. There seems little risk of losing Chinen, Uehara, and Numata, but any team could be keen to acquiring the services of Tanaka. His long standing history with the club may seem forgo any offers from other clubs.

That is it for our defenders. We will look at the midfield position in the second installment of this series, and hopefully I have that published before there are too many contract cancellations or renewals.

“Do You Remember When?” Match Day 1 Report: JEF UTD Chiba vs. FC Ryukyu 2/23/20 #FC琉球

I wasn’t quite sure how to start this entry as it has been well over 120 days since the opening match for FC Ryukyu and I have seriously procrastinated on writing the Match Day 1 report. Partly because I wanted to see how things played out for the 2020 season and partly because I wanted to have something to write about on my blog in the event that everything dried up and the season was cancelled.

Well, it is time to get moving again as the season is set to resume in less than a week and the fixtures will come thick and fast for FC Ryukyu. If you would like to see what the 2020 schedule looks like, I wrote a piece on the newly revamped schedule earlier so please go check that out for all the new fixture dates and kickoff times for FC Ryukyu.

But in the meantime, sit back and enjoy the first Match Day Report of the 2020 season (120 days in the making so it better be good!)

Match Recap

Leading up to the opening match of 2020, many wondered if FC Ryukyu had addressed their defensive woes from 2019 as well as found suitable replacements for the strike duo of Koji Suzuki and Satoki Uejo. Having to strengthen at the back as well as at the front is not a great recipe for success but FC Ryukyu were the side that surrendered the most goals in J2 (81) last season and needed to replace the 29 goals vacated by Suzuki and Uejo’s departures.

Well, it took exactly 40 seconds to figure out the answer to the first question after JEF opened the scoring when Koki Yonekura split our defenders and pushed a header past Taguchi who was starting in place of the injured Dany Carvajal. That would be the only goal of the game which was a bit disappointing from a FC Ryukyu supporter perspective as it leaves us searching for the answer to the second question.

FC Ryukyu had the majority of possession this game and the best chance to score after the opening goal, yet failed to equalize. Ren Ikeda came close to leveling the match with a header that was just inches wide; Kawai created several chances with his speed and looked really good while both Tavares and Koki Kazama came close to scoring. The most frustrating part was when Kawai was taken down in the 18-yard box, in a clear foul, yet no PK was awarded allowing the game to end 1-0 in favor of JEF.

There was one moment of brilliance for FC Ryukyu this match and it occurred when defender Yong Jick cleared a wide open shot off the line from a misdirected Taguchi touch that resulted in a wide-open shot from distance by a JEF player. Yong Jick hustled back to clear the ball off the line while going crashing into the side netting which allowed FC Ryukyu to be down just one goal and not two.

Man of the Match

FC Ryukyu RB Felipe Tavares: There was much uncertainty surrounding the player from Brazil when he signed this offseason and was then thrust into the lineup while incumbent RB Torikai, worked his way back to full match fitness. Though it should be noted that Torikai was fit enough to make the bench for the match.

From my vantage point, I watched Tavares win corners for FC Ryukyu, become an asset on corner kicks and take on opposing players in defense. Corners won isn’t an official statistic but Tavares provided plenty of opportunities for FC Ryukyu to equalize while defending admirably this match.

Match Day 1 Prediction

I thought it would’ve ended 2-1 in favor of JEF, and though I predicted the winner correctly, FC Ryukyu were shut out against JEF for the third time in as many games. I’ll score that as a draw thus bringing my season total to 0-1-0.

Review of the Keys to Victory Against JEF

I mentioned in the Match Day Preview that I would associate a level of confidence to each of the keys to victory to indicate the likelihood that it may or may not occur during the match.

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty this will Happen 4-Fairly Certain it will Happen 3-Somewhat Certain it may Happen 2-Very Unlikely that it Happens 1- Requires a Miracle of Sorts

1. Stifle the JEF attack and do not expose the FCR goal keeper. Likelihood: 2. This one was blown apart within the first 40 seconds of the match. The defense did settle down the rest of the match and prevented any more goals from getting past Junto Taguchi on his FC Ryukyu debut.

2. Exploit the JEF back line. Likelihood: 4. FC Ryukyu had several quality chances this match, but none resulted in a goal. In fact they dominated the amount of shots and possession.

3. Capitalize on whatever opportunities are afforded by the JEF defense. Likelihood: 3. The score line indicates all you need to know about this one.

Match Day 1 Takeaways

Not all doom and gloom FC Ryukyu fans. Yes, we did not score and yes there are some serious concerns if we will be as free scoring as we’ve come to enjoy here in Okinawa. But the team never quit and they enjoyed so much possession in the JEF end of the pitch, and controlled large portions of the game over a team that some have tipped for promotion.

The new signings Tavares, Ikeda, Motegi, Numata, Yong Jick and Suzuki provide a lot of optimism going forward and as we all know; you cannot put too much stock into one match. It is likely that FC Ryukyu will need a few matches to gel since the season was interrupted and the players were just learning to play along side each other for the first time so expect some more of the early growing pains.

Maybe the biggest takeaway from this match is that it is highly unlikely we see crowds of that size, sitting in that close proximity, creating that great footballing atmosphere, any time soon. And that is pretty disappointing.

Should you care? Not sure. We all know what is in store for the 2020 season so we need not worry about relegation. We should concern ourselves with how FC Ryukyu will finish out the season with the second oldest squad in the J2 (27.9 is our average age for players), and one that isn’t rostering as many players as it has in past seasons (27 in 2020 compared to 35 in 2019). Until then, football is back, for now.

Match Day 1 around the J2

Some of the interesting matches included Renofa Yamaguchi shocking everyone’s promotion favorite, Kyoto Sanga FC, 1-0 and then Tokushima Vortis ripping apart Tokyo Verdy 3-0. Both newly promoted Kitakyushu and Gunma lost their opening fixtures with the newly demoted duo of Jubilo Iwata and Matsumoto Yamaga winning their innagural rounds.

There was only 1 draw on the day and that occurred between Machida Zelvia and Ventforet Kofu.

Conclusion

A quick glance of the table sees FC Ryukyu only above 3 teams: Verdy, Gunma and Montedio. All the teams that finished below FC Ryukyu in 2019 sit comfortably above them (after 1 game). It is hard to read too much into this considering that everyone’s last match occurred just over 4 months ago.

FC Ryukyu should be at, or near, full strength when the season resumes on June 28^th but there are still plenty of questions that need answered before we can pass judgement on this squad and this season.

(and we just lost stating LM Shuto Kawai to an ankle ligament injury for at least a month)

I am glad that we’ll see Dany Carvajal back in net and have a full compliment of healthy defenders heading into the 2020 schedule gauntlet. But we still don’t know who will lead the line up front as this year’s talisman and we are down to 2 healthy strikers. We also need to see some better defensive performances from the back line and goalies this year so as to improve on the 6 total shut outs FC Ryukyu posted last season.

Well, the long drought of no football will quickly be behind us and I for one hope that the season can continue uninterrupted. It will be interesting to see if the larger clubs will be willing to loan out players as they’ve done in the past with the possibility of having to isolate players for weeks at a time who test positive for CV-19. Who knows, we may see FC Ryukyu dip into the summer transfer market and pull some prospects up from the J3.

But for now, stay safe and enjoy the return of football this weekend.

“Here We Go!” Match Day 1 Preview: JEF UTD Chiba vs FC Ryukyu 2/23/2020

Intro

My oh my, the time has flown by this offseason. Nevertheless, here we are at the first Match Day Preview for FC Ryukyu in the 2020 season. Last year I found that Match Day Previews became much richer and more deeply involved as the season evolved over time. Of course, this is to be expected when story lines start to unfold, players get injured, teams experience a dip or rise in form and statistics allow us to conduct some level of critical analysis. But at the start of each season, teams are relatively unknown commodities and often playing together for the first time. Surely last season stands as a perfect example when FC Ryukyu got out on the front foot quickly with such a blazing start and took everyone by surprise.

The same notion holds true for 2020 as teams will spend the better part of a month learning to gel when game speeds increase and matches begin to count. By starting fast early last year, FC Ryukyu scored a major advantage over teams that struggled out of the gate. I am not sure we will catch many by surprise this year, and in fact, I think FC Ryukyu have a very tough opening 11 matches to begin the year. This could cause some early tense moments this spring as well as stressful ones come this fall.

With that in mind, we open the Match Day Previews for this season with a road trip to Chiba where FC Ryukyu will take on JEF United Chiba on the opening day of 2020. If you recall last year, JEF got the better of FC Ryukyu on two separate occasions. A 1-0 win in Chiba on the first Wednesday night game of the year back on April 3^rd followed up by a 2-0 win in Okinawa at the end of July. The loss in July was number 4 in the midst of a 5-game losing streak for FC Ryukyu which really piled the pressure on the squad and the manager Higuchi. FC Ryukyu were in complete freefall at that time and were tumbling down the J2 table with each consecutive loss. But despite suffering setbacks to JEF along the way, FC Ryukyu would go on to finish higher than JEF in the J2 table in 2019.

But a lot has changed since these sides last met nearly 7 months ago. Players have changed teams, JEF has changed their manager and there are different expectations for both clubs heading into 2020.

Weather Forecast

JEF Chiba United

JEF made some wholesale changes to a side that finished 17^th in the table on 43 points in 2019. Often the punch line of several jokes stemming from numerous howlers and blunders, JEF has addressed the GK position this offseason by signing a veteran player from J1. Shoto Arai (Kawasaki Frontale) will look to sure up the final line of defense for JEF that only mustered 11 clean sheets from 42 matches in 2020. It is not as if clean sheets tell the whole story as there were probably a couple of occasions where a goal was conceded that either leveled or titled matches for JEF last season after they had already conceded.

Kleber will lead the JEF line up front as he did for much of last season. Kleber will be partnered with either newly signed Keita Yamashita (Renofa Yamaguchi) or Takayuki Funayama. Kleber banged in 17 goals in his 38 starts last season with Yamashita and Funayama each chipping 11/12 respectfully. Keita is 9 years younger than Funayama and perhaps the new coach favors a more aggressive style of play, with more gut busting runs compared to last season, and that may favor the younger Keita. JEF also signed Alan Pinheiro from Tokyo Verdy, a 17-goal scorer from just 2 seasons ago, to add to their firepower up front.

I cannot speak volumes on the defenders that JEF signed this offseason but it seems a majority of the issues that plagued this side in 2019 may very well continue into 2020. All in all, this looks like a club that wants to execute a very aggressive attacking style of play and run the opponent into the ground. But can they can keep opponents off the score sheet?

FC Ryukyu

Last year’s opening day starters for FC Ryukyu included Koji Suzuki, Kazaki Nakagawa, Keita Tanaka, Yu Tomidokoro, Kazumasa Uesato, Koki Kazama, Taishi Nishioka, Ryohei Okazaki, Shuhei Tokumoto Kosuke, Masutani and Dany Carvajal. From that group, only 6 remain, and of those 5, only 2 are likely start the opening match of 2020. This is nothing new to the fans of Ryukyu as many of us have seen some violent roster churn every season for this club. The question now becomes, can FC Ryukyu survive or thrive with this new group of players?

Up top will be Takuma Abe or Shinya Uehara for FC Ryukyu. Either will be flanked by Keita Tanaka, Koya Kazama, Shuto Kawai or Shunsuke Motegi with recent college graduate, Ren Ikeda, possibly leading the charge from the #10 slot. The youngster believes he is in the poll position to start the year there and that would come as a big surprise considering he beat out the likes of Koya and others to take over the CAM role. But whatever, name brand recognition is nice, results are so much better. So, if he can indeed prove his mettle out there, then I am all for it.

FC Ryukyu has made whole sale changes to back line that conceded a J2 league leading 81 goals last season. Tokumoto, Masutani, Nishioka have departed and Ryohei Okazaki is out injured. In comes newly signed North Korean National Team Player, Lee Yong Jick, and on-loan defender from Tokushima Vortis, Daisei Suzuki. At full back there is Felipe Taveras (RB), signed from a Brazilian Club this offseason, as well as (LB) Keito Numata who transferred in from Zweigen Kanazawa to replace Tokumoto. If Tavares can produce, or Torikai can get healthy and return to his top form, defense could all of a sudden become be a hidden strength for this team. There is an off chance that Ryoji Fukui starts in place of Suzuki, as he was Highuchi’s preferred choice all last season when there was an injury anywhere cross the back 4, but Suzuki seems to have the demeanor you want in a CB and I hope he is in there come Sunday.

Finally, we come onto the goal keeping crew. With Dany out rehabbing from offseason surgery, FCR are left with some unproven options on the roster. Inose started one match for FC Ryukyu last year at Mito and Tsumita has never featured for the club at this level. Then there is Junto Taguchi who signed from Albirex Niigata but I believe hasn’t featured in a competitive match in well over year. The closest I could find was a loan spell at Fujieda MYFC. For a side that only kept 7 clean sheets in all of 2019 (all 7 from Dany) there are many questions and concerns heading into the season opener.

Player Injuries

JEF UTD Chiba: MF Tameda (Cannot locate the injury) Return 8-10 weeks.

FC Ryukyu: GK Carvajal: (Ankle) Expected Return-4weeks. DF Okazaki: (Foot Fracture) Expected Return-3 weeks. MF Tomidokoro (Ankle/Foot) Expected Return-4 weeks. MF Yamaguchi: (Calf/Hamstring Pull/Tear) Expected Return-6 weeks.

Keys to Victory

Going to add a twist for 2020 to this section and provide a level of confidence after each key to victory indicating the likelihood that I think it will happen. The scale below:

5. An almost certainty: 4 Fairly Certain: 3 Somewhat Certain: 2 Very Unlikely: 1 Miracle

1. Stifle the JEF attack and do not expose the FCR goal keeper. I think FC Ryukyu may have the advantage on defense (words I would have never uttered in 2019) so this is a real possibility and necessity on Sunday. I cannot speak to how Higuchi split the preseason reps between Taguchi, Inose and Tsumita but the last thing FCR needs to do is turn this game into a shooting gallery back there for our goalie. Likelihood: 2

2. Exploit the JEF back line. The JEF defensive unit, much like the FCR back line, is newly formed and learning to play together for the first time. This is probably the weakest link in the JEF side which should allow FCR to get some shots on net which leads to point #3. Likelihood: 4

3. Capitalize on whatever opportunities are afforded by the JEF defense. JEF’s goalkeeper is a step up from last year and a proven shot stopper so weak, ill-advised and off-target shots will not help FCRs chances of victory. Especially if we only have 2-3 quality scoring chances that day. Abe seems dialed in from the amount of pre-season goals he scored so hopefully he can bag a brace on the weekend and give FCR the win. Likelihood: 3

Match Prediction

JEF is stronger on the ends of the pitch at GK and FWD with FCR having the advantage through the middle (MF/DEF). JEF has 3 proven double-digit goal scorers from last year whereas FCR have none. FCR also lack the experience in goal compared to that of JEF. However, FCR are slightly stronger across the back line and loaded with talent through the MF.

Each side is orientated to the attack and therefore this game will boil down to who has the most cracks at the back. Unlike last year when FCR failed to fire in any of their matches against JEF, I think this year will be different. However, I also feel that JEF will capitalize on their opportunities more than FCR and therefore will edge out FCR on the opening day.

Match Day Prediction: JEF UTD Chiba 2-1 FC Ryukyu.

Match Day Information

Please see Lost in Football’s website for information on how to purchase tickets and get the match at JEF UTC Chiba. http://lostinfootballjapan.com/club-profiles/jef-united-chiba/

JEF: https://jefunited.co.jp/event/2020/0223/. Can translate into English if using Google Chrome.

FC Ryukyu: http://fcryukyu.com/news/23000. List of goods on sale at JEF’s stadium.

J Soccer Magazine also has a ton of information on these clubs as well as all the J League sides. http://www.jsoccer.com/new/j2

Check out the latest J2 podcast, J-Talk Extra Time Ep.121, on iTunes Podcasts as well as Podbean where Stuart and Jon cover the opening round of fixtures for J2 this weekend. @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites

Conclusion

It is truly anyone’s guess how the opening day fixture will play out as we’ve never seen these sides face each other with this current crop of players. Will the occasion be too much for Taguchi in net for FCR? Does FCR have the firepower to get into shootouts this season? Can the back line for FCR morph from a position of weakness in 2019 to one of strength in 2020? All good questions that will be answered in short order. But for now, let’s enjoy the opening fixture of the 2020 season as we’ve all waited long enough for it to finally come around.