Intro
Avispa Fukuoka and FC Ryukyu square off this weekend in a crucial, 6-point relegation match at the bottom of the J2 table. It was FC Ryukyu who got the better of Avispa the last time these two teams met when they opened the J2 season in February. But this is a very different FC Ryukyu team who is traveling for the second week in a row and who has yet to earn a win on the road in quite some time.
Fukuoka’s lineup from that opening fixture has remained largely intact with the exception of an occasional injury or player being dropping to the bench. Whereas Ryukyu have made 5 changes to the starting lineup that bested Fukuoka 3-1 to start the season. Avispa enter match day 35 having secured 7 points from their previous 5 fixtures with FC Ryukyu bringing a 4-game unbeaten streak to the Kyushu prefecture. Only 2 points, and 2 positions in the table separate these two sides so this is going to be a massive bottom of the table tilt on Saturday.
Weather Forecast
The weather looks great with little prospect of rain.
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa went 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over the course of their last five fixtures. Their win against Ehime FC was quite impressive and seemed to be sparked by a spectacular save by their foreign goal keeper Serantes. Fukuoka scored 3 of the best goals I saw from them in the review and looked like a team that was getting ready to storm back up the table and out of the relegation scrap. However, they followed the Ehime victory with a 1-0 loss to Nagasaki. In a game where Fukuoka had a majority of chances, Nagasaki caught the Avispa back line napping with a surgical pass to Hirota Goya who scored his 18th goal of the season.
Fukuoka rebounded nicely to win 1-0 on the road against another opponent seeking to get out of the relegation zone, Tochigi SC. Fukuoka where then lucky to earn a late draw against Okayama after on-loan FC Ryukyu defender, Masutani, fouled a Fukuoka attacker in the box and gave Avispa a PK to tie the match. Avispa’s most recent match against Renofa Yamaguchi ended 2-0 in favor of Renofa despite another highlight reel save by Serantes.
On paper and on film, FC Ryukyu and Avispa Fukuoka look like two very similar teams. Each have a strong goal keeper and both have questions in defense. Both teams can score some beautiful goals while also suffering through patches of goalless games and little creativity. Fukuoka, like FC Ryukyu, are prone to some mental mistakes with the occasional lapse of concentration at the back that can allow opponents to get on the front foot. The only real difference I see between the sides is that while FC Ryukyu have suffered some heavy defeats with score lines of +4 goals conceded, Fukuoka have not. However, Fukuoka have been shut out in many more matches this season than FC Ryukyu.
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu are in the midst of their longest winning streak since the one they opened the season with that included 4 straight wins and 2 draws. Unbeaten in 4 and looking to separate themselves from the bottom 4, FC Ryukyu are desperate for a positive result on the road this weekend. It is no secret that FC Ryukyu own one of the worst, if not the worst, road records in J2 this season. 1 win, 5 draws, 8 points out of a possible 48 and no wins since match day 2 way back in March. Despite all of that, things are looking up for FC Ryukyu on the road.
FC Ryukyu have drawn their last 2 matches on the road that includes a come from behind draw at Kanazawa. While we all would’ve loved to see FC Ryukyu take all 3 points last week at 19th placed Zelvia, an improvement in the road form is a welcoming sign heading into the last 2 months of the season. Keep in mind that FC Ryukyu play only 3 out of the final 8 matches at home so road points are massive. One reason for the new found success should be attributed to the change in the FC Ryukyu lineup. Shinji’s presence in the deep lying mid field, coupled with the presence of Koya Kazama in the attack, has provided the much-needed structure Ryukyu were missing during their rough stretch of games this summer. With that said, FC Ryukyu will need both of these players, along with Uejo, Koizumi, Kawai and Ramon, to be firing on all cylinders this weekend to secure all 3 points.
Injuries/Suspensions
Avispa Fukuoka will be with out #16 MF, Ishizu Daisuke this weekend as he tore his Right ACL back in early July. I do not know of any suspended players for Fukuoka this weekend.
FC Ryukyu are reporting no injuries or suspensions this week.
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
1. Exploit Avispa’s weakness at defending passes that emanate from the deep lying Mid Fielders. A majority of the goals I witnessed Fukuka concede for this review were of this nature. This was also a strength of FC Ryukyu against Renofa and Kanazawa but one which they failed to employ successfully against Zelvia. Shinji, Yu, Uesato, Koya and even Tokumoto and Torikai can all unlock the Fukuoka defense with precision passing through the central defense of Avispa.
2. Pressure the Fukuoka back line with quick passes in and around the top of the box. Avispa seem very disorganized at the back and often get caught ball watching. This often leads to opposing attackers being left alone and unmarked in the 18-yard box. This sets up well for the Ryukyu if they make quality runs and can find the open spaces between the Fukuoka defenders.
3. Finish off drives. Fukuoka have one of the best goal keepers in J2 in Serantes. The goal keepers’ performance this season is a large reason why Fukuoka are not farther down the table. Ryukyu will need to be clinical in front of goal even if they get behind the Fukuoka defense as this man has proven to be a stalwart in net.
4. Defend against Fukuoka’s tendency to attack down their right side. A majority of the attacks for Avispa in the 5 matches I watched were down the right side. The play that worked the best seemed to be the one where; their RWB would cross a pass over the immediate defender and CB; thus leaving the remaining CB to cover the run of the Fukuoka striker; and leave a slight gap at the top of the box for the CAM to pick up the ball and have a free look on net. Knowing that, it would require Uesato or Ono to track back and cover the top of the box to prevent any dangerous shots on net.
Match Prediction
I feel another 1-1 draw is on the horizon.
Interesting Facts
J2 Match Day 35 Fixtures of Note
Conclusion
These two evenly matched sides are producing some solid results in the short term that should help their long term prospects of staying in the J2 for 2020. Avispa are no slouches and could easily run the score up on Ryukyu tomorrow if the Okinawa side starts slow and never gets going.
However, a win is close to coming and it will feel like such a relief for this side when it does. But the sooner the better. Starting last week against Machida, FC Ryukyu’s next 4 road fixtures include; Avispa, Tochigi, Yamaguchi and Ehime. Certainly, a win can be found in there somewhere along with enough points to reach safety if FC Ryukyu can maintain their current form. Safe travels for all the FC Ryukyu fans heading to Fukuoka this Saturday and good luck to the boys.
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