We are inching ever so closer to the restart of the J2 with kickoff scheduled for the June 27/28 weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the newly revamped schedule for FC Ryukyu. Also, in case you do not know, the J-League will not allow any fans inside the J2 grounds until after the July 11th set of fixtures (think that is right) and then there will be the hard limits of 5,000, or 50% of the stadium capacity moving forward. But that is still being debated among the powers to be in the J-League.
FC Ryukyu have 41 games left to play to close out the 2020 season (aka meet the sponsorship demands), provide a brief off-season for the players, and head into the 2021 campaign with training camps set to start in January 2021. It is hard to believe they haven’t played a competitive fixture in well over 120 days by the time they kick off against Avispa Fukuoka on 28 June, but that is the case.
“The Big Picture”
FC Ryukyu will play 41 matches inside of 176 days for an average of 1 game every 4.3 days.
2. Since they played the opening fixture away to JEF Chiba UTD back in February, FC Ryukyu have 21 home games and 20 road matches remaining in 2020.
3. Those 41 matches broken down per month with the home and away splits indicated (H/A) are as follows: June-1 (1H), July-6 (3H/3A), August-7 (3H/4A), September-8 (4H/4A), October-6 (3H/3A), November-8 (3H/5A) and December-5 (4H/1A).
4. FC Ryukyu will play 13 of their 21 home matches on a weekend (roughly a 7/6 split between Saturday and Sunday depending on the flexible scheduling by the league near the end of the year) with the remaining 8 falling on a Wednesday evening.
5. FC Ryukyu will also play an even 7/6 split for their 13 weekend road games with only 7 road games occurring on a Wednesday night.
“The Long Winding Road”
6. FC Ryukyu’s Road fixtures that fall on a Wednesday night in order of farthest expected distance to be traveled: (1) Zweigen Kanazawa September 2nd , (2) Matsumoto Yamaga FC September 23rd , (3) Tochigi SC October 21st , (4) Mito Hollyhock December 16th , (5) Ventforet Kofu November 4th , (6) Jubilo Iwata November 25th and (7) Avispa Fukuoka November 11th.
7. FC Ryukyu have 6 instances where they play back-to-back road games; 2 of which occur in the month of November. Of those 6 instances, 3 have a break of only 3 days between games; Zweigen/Machida in September, Omiya/Kofu in November as well as Fukuoka/Nagasaki that same month.
“The Comforts of Home”
8. FC Ryukyu’s Home fixtures that fall on a Wednesday night in order of farthest distance traveled by their opponents: (1) Albirex Niigata September 30th, (2) Zweigen Kanazawa December 2nd, (3) Ventforet Kofu August 12th, (4) Tochigi SC August 19th, (5) Thespakusatsu Gunma October 14th, (6) Omiya Ardija September 9th, (7) Jubilo Iwata July 29th and (8) V-Varen Nagasaki on July 15th.
9. FC Ryukyu have 5 instances of back-to-back home games this year with two of those occurring in succession for an outstanding 4 home matches in a row between November 28th to December 13th (roughly 2 weeks).
“Of Note”
10. Out of FC Ryukyu’s 8 Wednesday Night opponents they face at home, only 1 (Kofu) has an away match the weekend prior. Jubilo and Nagasaki each have one after their mid-week match up against FC Ryukyu. Compared to their Wednesday opponents they face at home; FC Ryukyu have 2 instances of back to back away-away matches with the first match of the series falling on a weekend.
11. FC Ryukyu will play Jubilo Iwata, Ventforet Kofu, Zweigen Kanazawa and Tochigi SC only on Wednesday’s this year.
12. FC Ryukyu play 6 out of their final 8 fixtures at home in 2020.
“Estimated Toughest Stretch of Games based on last season’s finish and expected finish in 2020”
1. 09/09/2020-10/11/2020 (8 games in 4.5 weeks): Omiya (H), Kyoto (A), Mito (H), Matsumoto (A), JEF (H), Niigata (H), Tokushima (A) and Montedio (A).
2. 10/24/2020-11/04/2020 (3 games in 10 days): Kyoto (H), Omiya (A) and Kofu (A)
“Estimated Easiest Stretch of Games based on last season’s finish and expected finish in 2020”
1. 08/16/2020-08/19/2020: Gunma (A) and Tochigi (H)
My Thoughts
We should all be glad there is no relegation this season as these fixtures will certainly test the depth of the FC Ryukyu squad. The squad currently has 2 healthy strikers on the team. That means we will likely see some of our MFs playing the role of a “false-9” to spell the 2 strikers. Hopefully there are some loan signings the team can make throughout the season as we are approaching the summer transfer window because injuries and suspensions will crush this team. But you have to wonder if the larger J1 clubs, that usually loan players, may decide to hold onto them in the event they face the same situation in addition to the real possibility of players contracting COVID-19 and being forced to stay away from the team for an extended period of time.
Easing into the season is nice but the 15 games in August and September, in this Okinawa heat, may become a factor as far as fatigue for the players. On that note, the worst part of the schedule has to be November based on the 8 fixtures, of which 3 are road trips during the mid-week. Again, good thing relegation is off the table for 2020.
There are some limited opportunities for the club to cost costs during their road schedule if they opt to stay on mainland Japan between matches. There normal cost of lodging, transportation and food for the traveling element will increase based on the extra days spent on mainland but it may result in reduced injuries and fatigue to the players who have to board a plane every other day. This would also require some coordination with local municipalities for the use of a training ground while they are away from Okinawa. Professional NFL teams who travel from either coast of the U.S., and have consecutive games in those time zones, often due this to mitigate much of what is stated above (in addition for the players to adjust their internal clocks to times zones that are 3 hours apart).
The end of November and December sets up nicely for us to enjoy a run of 4 home games in a row as well as to close out the season in 2020 at home. If, and that is a huge IF at this point, FC Ryukyu somehow found their way into a promotion spot, that schedule would prove massive for the club.
In closing, I am looking forward to the restart of the season as I expect many of you are as well. Who knows what the future holds for the league, and whether or not COVID-19 will let us complete the 2020 season? In the meantime, enjoy the football we do have and I cannot wait to see how FC Ryukyu navigate this schedule in 2020.
For the second installment of the 2020 FC Ryukyu season preview, I will look at the schedule of FC Ryukyu in 2020. While it is hard to predict which teams will start slow but finish strong, Omiya and Tokushima come to mind from last season, as well as who will be good and who will be bad, I will make some generous assumptions in this entry.
As you may know, there are 42 games in the J2 season with an even split of home and away games. The half way point of the 2020 season will occur around Sunday June 21st. However, there is a long “work stoppage” due to the Tokyo Olympics which begins on Sunday July 19th and lasts until Monday August 10th. That is a total of 21 days between matches in the J2. As you would rightly assume, this will have massive implications for all the teams throughout the J League.
Players will still be required to train during this period and they will have already played an additional 2 mid-week matches up to this point (in the J2 at least). There is also the possibility of playing 1, if not 2, Emperor’s Cup games at this point for some J2 clubs. Many teams may look back at the end of the year and see this as the tilting point to their season. There will certainly be equal shares of teams, both with and without momentum at the stopping point, who will witness a change in their fortunes. Another factor is that key players may also return from injury, or at the very least, have additional time to rehabilitate that will also shape the outcome of teams for the all-important end run of 2020.
For FC Ryukyu there is one additional tax that many mainland teams do not need to pay. They have to travel long distances for every road game. The farthest they will travel will be to Montedio Yamagata with the shortest trip being to V-Varen Nagasaki. Yamagata is not nearly as far as some of FC Ryukyu’s past opponents, like Akita and Morioka in the J3, but they still have to fly 2-3 hours plus factoring in additional commute times by bus to some locations. This will certainly take its toll on the squad. But with that being said, lets begin!
MATCHES 1-21
MATCHES 22-42
1.@ JEF United Chiba
22. JEF United Chiba
2. Fagiano Okayama
23.@ Mito Hollyhock
3.@ Kyoto Sanga FC
24. Kyoto Sanga FC
4. Albirex Niigata
25.@ Tokushima Vortis
5. @ Thespakusatsu Gunma
26. @Tochigi SC
6. Tokushima Vortis
27. Thespakusatsu Gunma
7.@ Ventforet Kofu
28. @ Fagiano Okayama
8. Matsumoto Yamaga F.C.
29. Omiya Ardija
9. Montedio Yamagata
30. @ Giravanz Kitakyushu
10.@ Omiya Ardija
31. @ Renofa Yamaguchi
11. Mito Hollyhock
32. Avispa Fukuoka
12. FC Machida Zelvia
33. @ Matsumoto Yamagata FC
13.@ Avispa Fukuoka
34. Zweigen Kanazawa
14. Renofa Yamaguchi
35. @ Montedio Yamagata
15.@ V-Varen Nagasaki
36. @ Albirex Niigata
16. Giravanz Kitakyushu
37. Ventforet Kofu
17. Tochigi SC
38. Tokyo Verdy
18.@ Tokyo Verdy
39. @ FC Machida Zelvia
19. Ehime FC
40. Jubilo Iwata
20.@ Jubilo Iwata
41. @Ehime FC
21.@ Zweigen Kanazawa
42. V-Varen Nagasaki
1. FC Ryukyu will play 11 home games in the first half of the season and 10 in the second half.
2. FC Ryukyu will play the 4 J1/J2 playoff teams from 2019 in a matter of 5 weeks (Vortis & Kofu Match Days 6 & 7; Yamagata & Omiya Match Days 10 & 11).
3. FC Ryukyu will play 4 mid-week matches in 2020, Match Days 5,12, 14 & 34. The last 3 are all at home.
4. FC Ryukyu will have 4 pairs of both back to back home games, and back to back away games.
5. The J League schedulers are funny people as one of those back to back road pairs happens to be the 2 farthest locations for the club in 2020. FC Ryukyu will play away to Montedio Yamagata and Albirex Niigata in a matter of 6 days on Match Days 35 & 36. I hope they intend to stay on mainland and find a suitable practice facility as that back forth distance leaves little time for recovery, training and travel between games.
6. In one 10 game stretch, Match Days 8-17, FC Ryukyu play 7 out of those 10 games at home. There are no other combinations in the schedule where FC Ryukyu plays more than 6 home/road games in any 10-game stretch.
7. FC Ryukyu will once again play Ehime FC on the road on Match Day 41.
8. FC Ryukyu will face Jubilo Iwata & Ehime FC in consecutive weeks twice this season. And they both occur at the same time in each half of the schedule (Match Days 19 & 20 & Match Days 40 & 41).
9. FC Ryukyu will play 17 games after the Olympic break (8 home/9 away).
10. FC Ryukyu will play 4 home games and 7 road games in the first 11 games after the Olympics.
11. FC Ryukyu will play 4 of their remaining 6 games in 2020 at home.
12. FC Ryukyu will play JEF Chiba United on Match Day 1 & Match Day 21 to start both the first and second halves of the season.
13. The shortest time gap between playing any one opponent is 8 weeks when FC Ryukyu play Tochigi SC (Match Days 17 & 26).
14. Every match following a game in which FC Ryukyu faces Montedio Yamagata, the opponent’s primary color is Orange (Omiya & Niigata).
15. FC Ryukyu play 24 games on Saturday, 13 on Sunday, 4 on Wednesday and 1 on a Monday.
16. FC Ryukyu play 16 games over a 3-month period (March to May)
17. The busiest month for FC Ryukyu is May with 6 matches and the slowest is July with 3 games.
Simple Observations
Whereas FC Ryukyu started amazingly fast to open the 2019 season, and caught teams sleeping on them, FC Ryukyu have a brutal 11 game stretch to open the 2020 season. They open against a team that beat them twice last season, face two newly revamped sides aiming for promotion in consecutive weeks, then play 4 JI/J2 playoff teams from 2019. Next, we sprinkle in games against the newly promoted J3 side who may have the “new boy bump” occurring, as well as the newly demoted side seeking to climb right back up to J1. Then to top it all off, they face a side who barely missed the playoffs last season. The schedule does not let up until match day 12 for this club and I hope we are not near the bottom left wondering where a quarter of the season disappeared too.
For a large part, the paragraph above represents a combination of how a majority of those teams finished in 2019 as well as some of the more popular opinions floating around today. As my knowledge of the J League continues to grow, thanks in large part to the excellent group of people on twitter – as well as the series of J-Talk podcasts- it is becoming apparent that players change clubs routinely and therefore so do the fortunes of the clubs. But make no mistake, this is a tough schedule for any side and FC Ryukyu will need to do all they can to grind out some early points so as not to find themselves in a relegation scrap come September.
We have made it to the last installment of the Mid-Season Review. This has been a great experience as a fan to look back and reflect on the half season while keeping an eye on the future. I wanted to provide a brief summation of the players who have featured for FC Ryukyu but please keep in mind, I am never privy to the strategy the manager employs each week or how the players perform while executing that strategy. I merely observe what I can see from the stands and from my TV screen. So, let’s close out the mid-season review with a bang.
Goal Keeper
#1 Dany Carvajal: Yeah, he’s pretty much been awesome. Don’t
think for one minute that because FC Ryukyu have only kept 3 clean sheets that
it is an indictment of Dany’s performances. See the MVP section below.
#23 Ryo Ishii: He was asked to step up and fill in when Dany
was hurt during a tough stretch of matches for FCR. He played really well
against Kanazwa and Kyoto and while those efforts may be overshadowed by Dany’s
performances to date, Ishii did his part to help this club.
Defender
FB #5 Tokumoto: Another young emerging player I fear FC
Ryukyu may lose this transfer window. It’s hard to assess any FC Ryukyu FB as
they are asked to play more like a WB than a FB this season. Tokumoto has
provided 3 nice assists and is developing into a one of the better LBs in the
J2. Currently recovering from an ankle and subsequent MCL injury.
#4 Okazaki: Started almost every match this year and is a
nice compliment to Masutani. Truth be told, I only key on defenders when they
make a mess of things, and in the case of Okazaki, he has only had that happen once.
Some of his mistakes may be covered up due to FCR scoring numerous goals or
winning games so I will need more time to assess this player. In the interim,
we need Okazaki to be a rock back there on defense.
#2 Masutani: A CB in the mold of Gary Medel from Chile. I’ve
been overly critical of this guy at times and that was just rash on my part as Masutani
brings a lot of aggressiveness to the FCR squad. He is good in attack with 1
goal to his name this season and can handle some of the larger, more powerful
strikers in the J2. I will say this, when he had to fill in for Nishioka at RB
due to injury, the FCR attack looked better. Consider that it was simultaneous
with the Nakagawa departure and though I think he may be better suited at FB, I
am a fan and not the Manager.
#3 Nishioka: 2 goals and 2 assists. Nishioka has missed some
time due to an MCL injury (not sure what caused him to miss upwards of 8 weeks)
and struggles at times with defending. Always seems to be in the right spot at
the right time for his goals. Displays toughness as evidence by playing through
a head injury but his game needs some fine tuning. Needs to have more
confidence in the attack, take on the opposition’s defenders near the 18-yard
box – much like when he was brimming with confidence against Yamaguchi with his
step overs – and feed Koji Suzuki quality crosses.
#33 Ryoji Fukui: The Swiss Army Knife for FCR. Versatile in
that he can play all 4 positions in defense and could possibly fill in at CDMF
as well. At times Fukui makes really well timed challenges but he also makes
some questionable decisions in defense. For example, he can turn his back to an
attacker, so as to invite a shot, which often leaves Dany or Ishii to deal with
the danger alone (Tokyo Verdy’s goal). Maybe the GKs have asked the defenders
to vacate the shooting lanes to better see the shots from distance but I will
never know for sure. Has decent speed to make up ground on attackers or get to
contested balls first. Have a sneaky suspicion that one of his challenges will
be rewarded with a Red Card some day and put FC Ryukyu up against it in a
match. Time will tell.
#16 Jumper Arai: Not enough game footage for an accurate
assessment.
Mid Field
#20 Uesato: Local lad, experienced player, 2 highlight reel
goals and team captain. Often lines up for FKs where, truth be told, I think
Tomidokoro could benefit from the added reps to get into a groove. It seems
Uesato prefers to shoot more than cross and maybe that’s due to the angle or
distance from which he’s taking the FKs. Scored in spectacular fashion against
Verdy and Gifu and is aiding with the development of the younger generation of
FCR players.
#8 Komatsu: Was in the starting lineup early and then has
faded. Possibly getting surpassed by talented players emerging.
#6 Kazama: Has a nice touch on FKs and CKs from his Central
Mid Field role. His performances have improved as of late and I hope that
translates into favorable results for FCR.
#19 Ochi: 2 goals from the man who is now Higuchi’s choice
at CAM. At least until someone is ready to take the job over.
#11 Keita Tanaka: Keita has been part of the fabric of this
team for so long. Tanaka is lethal finisher from the right, but much like Yu,
he needs to get some repetitions and get into a scoring groove. He’s scored only
once since rejoining the side but has had 3 other opportunities that either
required a nice save by GK or were just off the mark. FCR need to get this man
firing again as it will increase the potency of the FCR attack and open up more
space of Suzuki down the middle.
#10 Yu Tomidokoro: FC Ryukyu’s FK specialist. Yu has found
some tough sledding this season when it comes to FKs as he has netted only once.
He does have 2 goals and 3 assists and the FK goals will come with time and
reps. Needs to be given more opportunities on FKs. Remember, at his height,
defenses never knew when Yu was going to cross or shoot from the FK spot and
that is what made him so successful.
#28 Koizumi: The man featured in 6 games within a month
before doing a Houdini. He never scored but he flashed some real talent. His limited performance against Verdy was
something of an eye opener as he made some nice passes, hit the post and
displayed a bit of pace. He could very well be the 3rd piece to a
formidable FC Ryukyu MF with Uejo and Kawai in the near future. WHERE IS HE?
#7 Nakagawa: HAHAHA wouldn’t do it to you, too painful. Next!
#13 Kawai: Has one goal and 2 assists this season. Is
turning into a real playmaker for FC Ryukyu. Has another gear he can use to get
past defenders and is fine tuning his game with each performance, specifically,
his body & ball control while making cuts or getting up to speed. Maybe
replacing Nakagawa can’t be done with just one player but rather a combination
of players. If that is the case than Kawai’s introduction to the side is
starting to fill that void. Kawai’s speed really opens up the attack for FCR
and he has rightfully earned his spot in the starting 11.
Forwards
#14 Uejo: See Below, but seriously, I do not know why he
doesn’t start. Is it due to fitness, immaturity, health concerns or the
manager?
#21 Uehara: Has height, scored an important goal for FCR to
beat Niigata. Didn’t see much from him prior to his goal and less so after.
What happened? Injury?
#15 Wada: Played really well as a substitute versus Nagasaki
but hard pressed for playing time with the leading J2 goal scorer ahead of you
on the roster. His time will come.
#22 Gibo. I saw one appearance where Gibo displayed a lot of
hustle. Subbed into an attacking MF position but then was moved to a FB
position in the same game. He needs more playing time and I missed the Emperors
Cup match for FCR to see how he performed and what are his strengths and
weaknesses.
#9 Koji Suzuki: SEE BELOW.
Mid-Season MVPs
1A. Koji Suzuki. The man’s stats speak for themselves but if
you peel back the curtain a little more, you see that he has scored crucial
goals at very crucial times of matches for FCR. Yamagata, Yamagauchi, Kanazawa,
Omiya and Mito all come to mind. He is also one of the most unselfish strikers
I’ve ever seen. He puts in a shift every match. He does the hard work of hold
up plays, winning contested balls and drawing fouls from the opposition while never
complaining and rarely displays any outward frustration at his teammates. I
have no idea what compelled Zelvia to let him go but I do not care at this
point. He has proven to be an absolute steal in the transfer market.
1B. Dany Carvajal. Strong at the back and lethal up front is
what makes any team great. Yes, of course, strong through the middle is another
essential part but having the best striker and one of the best goal keepers in
the league on your squad is pretty good as well. Dany has been a revelation for
this side. He always seems to be in the right position, at the right time, to
make the right type of save. And let me tell you, there have been some
spectacular ones; against Omiya there were 2 to seal the win, the PK save
against Verdy, resisting the Reysol bombardment, Vortis, Yamaguchi, Mito and
list goes on and on. The FC Ryukyu front office did really well by signing Dany
this offseason.
2. Satoki Uejo. This man has come out of nowhere and turned
into quite the player. He has scored 6 times this season and is improving every
time he steps out onto the pitch. He has some signatures goals to his name;
Reysol, Vortis, Ehime, Nagasaki and Renofa (Emperor’s Cup). He also looks like
he has packed on some muscle the past few months in order to fight off larger
defenders. He needs to be out there every week for this side.
Looking Ahead
FC Ryukyu will play 10 games at home and 11 games on the road in the second half of the season. Within those 11 road games they will play 3 series of two consecutive road matches starting next week with Mito and Niigata. The next series is at the end of September with Machida and Fukuoka and finally to end the season against Ehime and Kofu. They also have 3 series at home where they will play consecutive home matches. The first wraps up this week with Okayama (started with Tochigi last week), the second is in August with Nagasaki and Yokohama and the third is at the end of August/early September with FC Gifu and Kagoshima. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the second half fixtures, make some predictions and then review the remaining fixtures for the bottom 4 clubs in J2.
Red denotes MUST WIN games for FCR.
It would be nice to see FCR earn wins against Tochigi and Ehime on the road as those 6 points could go a long way to helping secure J2 football for FCR in 2020. None of us know how the results will shake out considering we cannot predict the transfers in/out of clubs, injuries, managerial changes and plain old luck (good or bad). FC Ryukyu’s make or break month will be October with favorable matches against Avispa, Tochigi and Verdy. They need to be well clear of the relegation zone after that point because November could prove fatal if the road performances by FCR don’t improve. They face a surging Renofa side on the road, host a promotion seeking Kyoto side at home and wrap up the season with 2 road trips with a possible relegation battle against Ehime and potential promotion seeking side in Kofu. Even though I am targeting Ehime as a must win game for FCR, that will depend largely on FCR showing that they can win on the road when needed in the second half of the season.
With this in mind, lets look at teams who are currently sit 18-22 in the J2 table and examine their crucial months and critical match-ups in the second part of the 2019 J2 season.
#18 JEF Chiba United. JEF have a tough October where they face 3 sides who are likely going to be in the top 7. Depending on how those results play out, JEF could be dragged into the relegation battle. Their final match against Tochigi is huge for both sides.
#19 Kagoshima. The October and November schedule are not kind to Kagoshima. 3 road matches in October followed by a run of Kofu, Okayama, Reysol and Mito. They end on the road versus Fukuoka in another final match day matchup that could determine who gets relegated.
#20 Tochigi. The outcomes of their September fixtures will most likely determine their fate. They face FC Gifu, Fukuoka, Kagoshima and Ehime all in a row. That is a total of 4, 6-point match-ups in a row that could really doom any of those sides. As mentioned earlier, Tochigi end with JEF Chiba in what could be a win or go down to J3 match.
#21 Fukuoka. October and November are also not kind to Fukuoka. They are hoping that some of the sides around them perform poorly the rest of the year so as to give Fukuoka a chance at the end. Avispa end versus Kagoshima in a game we already mentioned that has massive relegation implications.
#22 FC Gifu. The schedule is kinder to FC Gifu in so much as there isn’t any one month remaining where they face multiple top sides in quick succession. The end of July/beginning of August will be rough on them but there are winnable games. But like Fukuoka, FC Gifu are hoping that things go terribly wrong for the few sides just above them in the table. Will it be the Vortis or Kofu match that ultimately dooms this side, or will it happen much sooner?
At the end of the day, FC Ryukyu need to go out there and handle their business without concerning themselves too much about the rest of the table. It is simple math for FCR: Beat the teams below you in the table especially those at the bottom, Get points off of teams just above you in the table, and win some games on the road. If they can do that, then they are going to be alright. I’d estimate that another 18 points are needed and FCR could achieve that any number of ways in the second half of the season.
I know I did not focus on which team may win the J2 title and which sides are likely to be promoted to the J1 in 2019 so I’ll save that for a later date.
Well folks, that is going to do it for the final installment of the FCR Mid-Season Review. I hope you enjoyed reading them as much as I enjoyed writing them. I’ll be adding two more entries this week with the Second Transfer Special of the year coming out on Thursday and the normal Match Day Preview coming out on Friday.