
Intro
FC Ryukyu will look to continue their fast start when they welcome in V-Varen Nagasaki this weekend. Ryukyu are in the midst of their longest winning streak in two seasons, while Nagasaki are looking to rebound from a rough start to the season. The match for FC Ryukyu is certainly their toughest to date, but at this point, a majority of the matches in the opening quarter of the season represent their own unique set of ‘firsts.’ First game of the year with a newly formed team; first road game; first game against a tougher opponent; first game against a weaker opponent; first game playing from a deficit; first game coming off a loss; and so on. Some may wonder if this Ryukyu side is for real. Well, we should have some idea at the end of this round.
- Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
- Match Day 3 Recaps
- Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- V-Varen Nagasaki
- Keys to Victory
- Prediction
- Match Day 4 in J2
- Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information
Possibly the best weather forecast for Ryukyu this season. Slightly overcast, but the off chance it rains once again. Be prepared either way.

FC Ryukyu Match Day Information : The link will provide all the information you need if you plan on attending.
2. Match Day 3 Recap
3. Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: When your team is on a 3-game winning streak, it is hard to find many faults as they’ve risen to the occasion every single time. Look no further than FC Ryukyu’s total time playing with a lead compared to playing from behind. 227 minutes played while leading, 64 minutes at an even score line, 0 minutes playing from behind. Granted, when you score two goals in the opening minute of two consecutive games that number is naturally going to be inflated. But they still kept Iwata and Gunma completely off the score sheet and prevented Renofa from scoring in the final 38 minutes.

In 2019, 5 of Ryukyu’s 13 wins came in the form of a shutout. That number jumped to 10 out of 14 in 2020. That can be attributed to the difference in the amount of goals conceded between those two seasons and so far Ryukyu are off to their best start defensively of any season in the J2. And that, as I stated in the first preview of 2021, will be the telling sign for the overall fate of the team this year. There is no doubt that Chinen benefited from his first season at the J2 level last year, and somehow, Okazaki has started to put it all together after what seemed to be a career trending in the wrong direction. At least for now we haven’t seen the poor judgement, consistently out of position play that plagued us at the back for much of the past few seasons.
Abe will continue to get his goals and eventually Ryukyu will start to dictate games from their mid-field, but for now, they are winning through defense. Even more so, they are winning with the same combination of players. Ryukyu remained roughly in tact through the transfer window despite the departures of Koizumi and Kawai that many expected and maybe, just maybe, these players have the experience required in Higuchi’s system to make some real noise in the J2 this year.

When you view the lineup each week you wonder how some of the better players are left off the bench, but I would argue that the sum of this team is much greater than the individual parts. In 2019, we had talented players in Suzuki, Nakagawa, and Uejo. In 2020, it was Abe, Koya, Koizumi and Kawai. But this side could never put it all together on both ends of the pitch. Perhaps the end of 2020 – with Taguchi, Tanaka, Okazaki, and Chinen starting – was actually the beginning of what Higuchi had hoped to create all these years. And now we are seeing the benefits of playing as team rather than a group of talented individuals.
V-Varen Nagasaki: I am happy to welcome in Daniel, author of the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog, for this week’s preview. Daniel has been one of the best English bloggers out there these past few years and his weekly previews/reviews are a must follow. So there is no better source on the state of Nagasaki and what we can expect from them this round.

Q. Great to talk with you once again my friend. I know things haven’t gone according to plan so far, but I guess that comes with the territory when there are high expectations surrounding the team. Personally, I think Nagasaki are too good of a team to be down for to long, and I also fear them busting out in a big way this week, but it seems they were a bit frustrated in the attack last week against Ehime. What do you think is holding them back?
A. Thanks for having me again, Geoff! Especially in the game against Ehime and even in the win against Kanazawa, the poor usage with our chances was the biggest issue. Had V-Varen won this game 4-1, I do not think anyone could have said that it was undeserved because we really were dominant for most of the game and only allowed Ehime to have four shots on target, of which two came in the moment they scored their goal. I am quite confident that we can turn this problem around as there are many decent offensive players in the squad and some of them (Edigar Junio, Ibarbo, Yamazaki) have yet to make an appearance this season.
What may be the bigger issue, is some of the decisions made by the new manager, Takayuki Yoshida. His substitutions have had a rather negative impact in every game so far. Against Niigata, players were all over the place, but not in the positions in which they have played their best football in the past. Against Ehime, we needed to score another goal and the team kept on attacking, but from the moment Caio and Togashi were subbed, V-Varen lost their momentum. I also wasn’t a big fan of the formation he used in Niigata.
Q. We are not even remotely close to the ¼ mark of the season, but what is your impression of Nagasaki through their first 3 games?
A. Overall, quite positive. Defensively, I think we may be even better than last season. The team was a bit unlucky in the situations that lead to Niigata’s and Ehime’s goals and in general, our opponents have had very few decent chances. Offensively, we just need to start scoring. The chances have been there already, the players just need to take them.
Q. I see that the formation changes week-to-week under Yoshida and that Luan has played across 3-MF positions already. This has to be somewhat unsettling for the players in the squad. In your opinion, is Yoshida attempting to bend the squad around his preferred 3-4-2-1, or is he coming around to utilizing the players that he inherited in their natural positions?
A. The formations used against Kanazawa and Ehime were quite similar – with four defenders and one target man up front. Just the midfield was arranged differently. Against Niigata, however, V-Varen started with five defenders and that meant that Yoshida replaced an attacking player with a central defender. Defensively, it worked well considering that Niigata only had a couple of chances from open play and they were shots from about 15-20 meters out, but offensively, the team was not able to really bother Albirex. Also, V-Varen have been very good defensively with four defenders (only 39 goals conceded last season), so I did not think it was necessary to weaken the offense just to have an extra defender on the pitch. And it became worse with all the substitutions in this game.
Luan started on the left, then moved into the center and finished the game on the right. Otake has played in right midfield or behind the striker for most of his career, but when he came off the bench against Niigata, he played on the left. Sawada, a winger, is very good going one-on-one and can take on several defenders, but Yoshida brought him on as left back and had him sit back as protection in case Albirex would go on a counter attack. Akino is a defensive midfielder and he is the best passer on the squad and has initiated many attacks with long balls, but he finished the game as central defender. Meanwhile, Shinzato, a central defender, played most of the second half as defensive midfielder.

None of this made sense to me and I was shocked by how the manager, who already spent last season with the team and should know the players’ strengths, just shifted them back and forth and into (for them) untypical positions. I hope the Niigata game is a one-off because to me it was chaotic. In the end, it all goes back to the question of whether a managerial change was necessary or not and if different tactics are needed. The team collected 80 points last season and finished with a goal difference of +27. I understand that every manager wants to implement his own ideas, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! V-Varen have a very decent squad and almost all key players remained at the club. If Yoshida can get his tactics sorted, we have a very good chance for promotion.
Q. Nagasaki is still waiting on some reinforcements who haven’t entered the country yet correct? Where do you think they will fit in?
A. As of now, all players, who are under contract, are there, but Edigar Junio and Victor Ibarbo arrived in Nagasaki relatively late and they have not been included in a matchday squad so far. Once he is ready to go, Edigar Junio should be our first-choice striker and from the comments I saw on Twitter, many in our community expect him to score 15-20 goals. As for Ibarbo, it is complicated. He was supposed to be one of the best players in the league as well, but last season only got six starts. I can only guess that he did not put in enough work in training to deserve more playing time, but he still made quite an impact with one goal or assist every 116 minutes of playing time. If he is ready to go to work, he is also a candidate for a starting role, but I think that is a big “IF”.
The club is also still trying to sign a winger called Wellington Rato from Brazilian Serie A team Atletico Goianiense and their president said last week, that V-Varen had matched the transfer/loan fee requested by Atletico, but a few days later he said that the deal was off due to a disagreement regarding the payment, which V-Varen apparently requested to split into two instalments. A few months ago, V-Varen were also trying to sign Winger Jaroensak Wonggorn from Thai League team, Samut Prakan City, but the clubs could not come to an agreement. However, last week there was news about V-Varen and a few J1 clubs, including Kashima, still being interested in him.
Q. Who has been the best Nagasaki player to date?
A. First name that comes to mind is Cayman Togashi. He works relentlessly and got his first goal of the season against Ehime. The second player is Luan and I think he will also play a big role throughout the season. He accumulated six goals and three assists last year while only playing 1084 minutes. That means he contributed a goal or assist every 120 minutes of playing time. In my Season Preview I mentioned him as candidate for team MVP and I think his ambition needs to be a candidate for league MVP.

Q. For some unknown reason V-Varen Nagasaki always seem to be a team that FC Ryukyu play well against. We’ve traded 3-2 home wins in 2019, then drew during the monsoon last year, and then ended with the 1-0 win in Nagasaki that dented your promotion hopes last year. In our case, we sometimes (on rare occasion) play up to our competition, but mostly we play down to lower competition. What do you think is the case when Nagasaki face Ryukyu?
A. What I noticed is that six of the seven goals FC Ryukyu scored against us in the past two seasons came in the 69th minute or later. V-Varen are not a team that concedes particularly many goals late in games, but even when we were up 3:0 in the first meeting of 2019, you guys still scored two beautiful goals in the final ten minutes and gave us quite a scare. Last season, when many teams just sat back against V-Varen and waited for counter attacks, FC Ryukyu were willing to take a risk and attack and they rewarded themselves with four points. So, I think that FCR just have a stubbornness and mental strength to them, which has helped them to surprise V-Varen and capitalize on their mistakes in the past four meetings between the two.
Q. What are your thoughts/predictions for this week’s game?
A. Before I started working on this preview, my prediction was a 1:0 win to Nagasaki, but because of what I just wrote in my reply to the previous question, I feel like we are going to need a two-goal lead in order to finally get an away win against you and that will be difficult. I expect both teams to have 15-20 strong minutes in each half and it is probably going to end in a 1-1 draw.
It was great to reconnect Daniel, I wish the best for you and your team this year -just not this week- and look forward to seeing Nagasaki in the thick of the promotion race. Cheers!
Thank you, too, Geoff. I really enjoyed answering your questions and am looking forward to a decent game. Good luck to you guys for the rest of the season!
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. V-Varen is extremely good at sucking defenders deep into their own box before finding an outlet pass to an unmarked player near the top. They also seem to have guys flying into the box from all directions when they are in possession at the opponent’s end. The outcome of this game hinges on our 2 central midfielders’ ability to track, and close down, those runs and crosses.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. Echoing what Daniel said about Nagasaki’s defense limiting their opponent’s scoring chances, Ryukyu will need to be lethal from limited chances. Ryukyu are not even close to maintaining the same levels of possession they enjoyed last year so quick counters, and finishing those counters, will be key. Hopefully all of those near misses the past few weeks will start to fall for Ryukyu.
5. Prediction
This is definitely a statement game for FC Ryukyu as well as a chance for V-Varen Nagasaki to right the ship. As Daniel mentioned, these two sides share a unique history especially when it comes to late goals scored by FC Ryukyu, but last week against Gunma was the first time all year that Ryukyu scored in the second half. Factoring in Daniel’s perspective for how Nagasaki are better defensively than last year, and limit scoring chances for their opponents, Ryukyu may have few scoring opportunities on Saturday. A 1-goal loss to Nagasaki would be considered respectable, any type of points earned by Ryukyu will fall into the green section of the Points over Expectation table I produce for each Match Report. I think Ryukyu put up a fight, but ultimately fall 2-1 to Nagasaki. Season Record 2-0-1.
6. Match Day 4 in J2

Another interesting round of fixtures with Niigata looking to extend their undefeated streak to 4 when they host Gunma, and then there are plenty of teams sitting just outside the top two who have a good shot at improving their position in the table based on their matchups this round.

7. Conclusion
Thank you to Johnny (gambaosakaenglish.blog) and Daniel for their contributions to the preview this week. Their input has been invaluable and if you are not already following these two, you need to be.
Pretender or Contender? That is what we want to know about Ryukyu. Time to go out there and make a statement.












































