2019

Intro

FC Ryukyu suffered their second defeat in a row, and their fourth in their past 5 games, but it still left them 14^th in the table. Getting any sort of positive result against Mito was always going to be a tall ask of the traveling FC Ryukyu side but was made even more difficult when FC Ryukyu were forced to make a drastic change at GK. One must assume that an injury/illness to the incumbent, Carvajal, kept him off the roster in addition to Ishii being unable to play against his parent club who loaned him to FC Ryukyu this season. That meant that 3^rd choice keeper, Inose Kosuke, would get the start for FC Ryukyu.

First Half

Despite the weather report from Saturday, the rain held off and it was a crisp evening in Mito. Mito wasted no time getting in behind our central defenders and tested Inose early in the 2^nd minute but Inose made a fine save from the well taken shot. Mito continued their fast start when in the 4^th minute a FK required Inose to be called into action once more. FCR had a chance early as well when Kazama found himself with acres of space to operate, along with several FCR attackers in the area, but he opted to shoot and sent the ball wide of the mark. FCR looked good in the attack but it was ultimately Mito would get on the score sheet first when a header from a cross was deflected into the back of the net. There wasn’t much Inose could do from the lucky deflection but nonetheless, FCR were down early on the road to a superior opponent.

Mito doubled their lead from another header later in the first half. On the play, there seemed to be a little confusion between the FCR defenders as there was a large gap that Shichi Takaaki was able to exploit and hammer home the second goal of the night. FCR had a chance to get one score back when a turnover by Mito saw Ochi with a free run and look on net. However, Ochi’s shot from the top of the box was right at the keeper at a decent height that made for an easy save. He had the whole goal to work with and he could have gone low and hard to the opposite side or top shelf that probably would’ve resulted in a score. Regardless, FCR went into half time down 2-0 and it looked very worrying for the guests despite there incredible 61/39% possession over Mito.

Second Half

Higuchi made an immediate change when he brought Uejo on in place of Ochi to start the second half. Uejo’s presence made an immediate impact for FC Ryukyu as he was using his speed to get on to the end of long passes and was making some very dangerous runs at the Mito net. FC Ryukyu grabbed a goal in the 56^th minute from a very nice header from Masutani on a corner kick but it turned out to be the only score of the game for FCR. The game had a frantic pace after the Masutani goal and turned into a dangerous game of chicken between the teams to see who would blink first. Ultimately it was FCR as they allowed Mito to score off a turnover where Ogawa Koki chested the ball down nicely and then calmly blasted it past Inose for a 3-1 Mito advantage.

FCR would have a few more chances from FKs but nothing close to the opportunities they enjoyed in the first half. FC Ryukyu ended the match with 61% possession but was out shot 16/11 where Mito put 11 of those shots on net compared to the FCR 7. It was a day marked by turnovers and mental errors.

Man of the Match

DF #7 SHICHI Takaaki Mito Hollyhock. Played a solid game from his FB position. Directly contributed to 2 of Mito’s goals when it was his header that was redirected by Kurokawa for the first Mito score and his header for the second. Exploited the FC Ryukyu defenders on set pieces in the box and offered up some fine efforts on FKs and in defense.

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu.

There was only one and it was for everyone to win their individual battles. Some did, some did not. This is a team sport and the team did not get the job done on Sunday. FAIL.

Match Day 23 Takeaways

1. I have never played football at a high level. I played baseball through college and have watched multiple sports all my life. Therefore, while I cannot accurately define the tactics and individual assignments of players in every match, I can determine when there are mental errors and sloppy play. In my experience, these items are directly associated with coaching. For example, I counted 20 FC Ryukyu turnovers and 16 incidents of mental errors during Sunday’s match. I did not count plays where FCR players were attempting to get a pass through to an attacker in the opponent’s end. Turnovers were scored as: heavy first touches that got away from an FC Ryukyu player, not knowing where the opposing teams’ defenders/players where when in possession and then being dispossessed, passes directly at opposing players with no FC Ryukyu player within 3 meters of where the ball ended up, and needlessly kicking the ball out of bounds. Mental errors were categorized as: failing to recognize, and then pass to, open FCR attackers near the opponents 18-yard box, wasteful FK opportunities, failing to kick the ball out of bounds to prevent an attack by opting to pass/round the Mito player which resulted in a turnover or CK, and finally, losing control of the ball while in possession from either a lack of hubris or heavy touch. None of these things are irreversible, in fact, all can be coached, reinforced and practiced over and over again so as to be reduced in a given match. Turnovers and the occasional mental mistake are always going to happen in any match, I am merely advocating a reduction in the overall number through coaching and mentoring.

2. There were some interesting managerial decisions this past weekend that I believe deserve a deeper look. First, FC Ryukyu were forced into some lineup changes due to injuries and loan regulations but that isn’t the real story. I do not speak Japanese and I am not a member of the team to know why Higuchi opts to bring Uejo off the bench every match instead of starting the talented youngster, but his impact is undeniable. His presence opened the match up for FC Ryukyu that ultimately allowed Masutani to score from a set piece. Unless there is some evidence to suggest Uejo cannot sustain a full 90 minutes, I have no idea why the second leading scorer on our team sees limited action each week. Second, FCR had plenty of opportunities to do something from set pieces yet nothing materialized. Yu is probably the best FK taker in the squad yet he has been afforded limited opportunities on set pieces. Not much more to add here. Finally, why did Higuchi wait until the 1^st minute of stoppage time to make the 3^rd and final sub for FC Ryukyu despite being down by 2 goals with a little over a quarter of the match to play? This one baffled me since he should’ve subbed on fresh legs to run at the tired Mito defenders and allow the new player time to adjust to the game and possibly make a play or two. Instead, I think Kim Song Sun touched the ball once, maybe twice, in the limited action of stoppage time. This seemed like a useless gesture to get a player some game time despite having another talented player in Koizumi on the bench.

3. Higuchi’s managerial style. It seems that opponents are able to make in-game adjustments that Higuchi cannot either see or respond too quickly enough and therefore but this side at a disadvantage. FC Ryukyu have talented players, but are we getting the most out of them? Are we executing the same game plan every week when it is necessary to adjust, and tailor, the lineup and tactics? The most talented players for FC Ryukyu are up front and they are the ones that need to be taking the high priority shots each week. Are we doing enough to set them up for success?

4. Confidence. No doubt that the boys needs a confidence boosting result, and they need it quickly. A positive result (win) against Niigata next week would go a long way to boosting this sides confidence. Hopefully, we’ll see Nishioka, Kawai, Yu and Uejo taking on the Niigata defenders in and around the box and playing like they did some weeks ago.

Conclusion

FC Ryukyu are nearing a point where they will have no other choice but to change or risk falling into a relegation battle and possibly out of the J2. FC Ryukyu currently sit 8 points clear of the relegation zone but that is only a matter of 3 results not going their way. Consider that FC Ryukyu have conceded 20 goals in their past 8 matches and are averaging nearly 3.00 goals conceded each week over their past 5 games. Change could occur in many forms; change in tactics, change in personnel selected for the starting 11, change with some transfers into the club or a managerial change. FC Ryukyu haven’t won on the road since Omiya, 106 days ago, so why not play as if you have nothing to lose next week versus Niigata. We’ve seen how Kagoshima, FC Gifu, Renofa, and JEF Chiba did when they employed those tactics against FCR.

“The Heat is On” Match Day 22 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. Fagiano Okayama

Weather Forecast: FINALLY! A great forecast for today’s match. Partly cloudy, temperatures in the high 80s with plenty of humidity, but most importantly, no rain!

The second half of the season gets underway today in Okinawa where 13^th placed FC Ryukyu take on 10^th place Fagiano Okayama. Okayama got the best of FC Ryukyu the last time these two teams met when they were awarded, and then converted, a PK. FC Ryukyu are coming of an uplifting 3-0 victory at home over Tochigi SC last week and Okayama visit the Tapista riding a 2-game win streak. This should be a very entertaining match today as both teams have similar attacking styles and the 2 leading scorers in the J2 face off once more. It was Lee Yong Hae who got on the score sheet the last time they squared off; will it be Suzukui’s turn today?

Fagiano Okayama

Okayama came from behind at home last week to defeat Kagoshima with 2 very late goals. Kagoshima dictated a lot of the game up till the end when a bad call by the referee awarded Okayama a PK that ultimately sealed the fate of Kagoshima. Prior to that match, Okayama had their doors blown off by Yokohama FC 5-1. The Okayama defense was ripped to shreds several times by the quick, long through balls by Yokohama and that seems to be a good way to get behind the Okayama defenders.

They drew twice against Renofa and Machida with 1-1 score lines where they let both these games slip through their fingers. Their defending let them down again despite one of the best goals scored in J2 this season by Okayama. Takeda hit an absolute rocket shot from the top of the box that found the top corner of the goal but that wasn’t enough against Renofa.

Make no mistake, Okayama have the fire power to score goals but they are not the strongest side when traveling or facing teams in the bottom half of the table. While this isn’t to be considered a “must win” game for FCR, it is an opportunity to grab a win against a side that is near FCR in the table and could help offset some unfavorable score lines later this season against stronger sides. FCR are just a better team when they play at home and therefore have a real shot at grabbing all3 points today.

Fagiano Players to Watch

#9 FW Lee Yong Hae: 12 goals this year but hasn’t scored in his last 2 games. Scored the last time these 2 sides met and is a tall, strong, quick striker that FCR had a real hard time dealing with in the first match.

#19 MF Hayato Nakama: 6 goals scored this season. Forms a very nice strike partnership with Hae and has provided him so excellent service this year.

#7 FW Seiya Nakano: Third leading scorer on Okayama with 5 goals. Used primarily as a substitute and provides a nice punch when coming off the bench.

FC Ryukyu

The boys finally decided to put an end to the 3-game losing streak by completely dismantling the Tochigi side last Saturday. FC Ryukyu controlled the pace of the game, were lethal in front of goal and really choked out the Tochigi SC attack. That type of effort is again going to be required for FC Ryukyu to grab all 3 points today as Okayama are a much better side than Tochigi.

FC Ryukyu will need Kawai to stretch the defense and allow players like Yu, Ochi and especially Suzuki to find the running/shooting lanes for goal scoring opportunities. If FC Ryukyu take the same approach to defending, they did last week but not holding a high defensive line, then we can limit the amount of counterattacks by players like Hae and Nakama. The Okayama defense is nothing special and can be unlocked with quick, accurate passing. If nothing else, it is likely that FC Ryukyu will draw plenty of fouls in and around the Okayama box with this type of play and then we could let Yu, Kazama and Uesato do their thing on FKs.

It is really simple math for FCR; score, defend, reduce turnovers and you will win. FCR needs to build a little bit of consistency moving forward and this is a great match to continue a nice run of form.

Injuries

Fagiano Okayama: #10 FW Mineiro – had a sprained MCL but it looks as if he is past the estimated recovery window of 6-8 weeks.

FC Ryukyu: #5 DF Tokumoto – recovering from an MCL sprain he picked up while rehabbing from an ankle sprain. Another 3 weeks away from returning to the lineup.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Set the tone. Okayama undoubtably have two serious playmakers in the squad but that is about it. The Okayama GK is average and the defense is like wet toilet paper, effective at times but not the preferred method.

2. Execute a balanced attack. Stretch Okayama from either side and don’t concentrate all your efforts on one side. Okayama can be beaten through the middle and down the flanks so use Kawai’s speed and Yu’s passing to free up Suzuki in front of goal. Uesato and Kazama should look for nice long through balls to let Suzuki run at the Okayama goal.

3. Defend in packs. Wolves hunt in packs and FCR should start defending the same way. FCR are good enough to be venomous on the counter but need to reinforce the back when under siege. All kidding aside, this isn’t the time to get cute, defend like you did against Tochigi and everything will be alright.

Match Prediction

The numbers are there for everyone to see. FC Ryukyu are a home team as is Okayama. Okayama is not the same team when traveling as evidenced by the amount of goals they concede. 2 goals could once again prove the difference for FCR on the day. FCR 2-2 Okayama.

Conclusion

This is big game for FC Ryukyu as they were able to get two weeks in a row at home and that should recharge a lot of the guys since they were not forced to travel. FC Ryukyu head out o the road for 2 games starting next week and a win here would serve them really well. This should be an up and down match that hopefully see’s Okayama tire in the second half since they are not acclimatized to the heat/humidity here in Okinawa. It should be a great day to watch football so hopefully like Okinawa community will come out in full force for this game.

FC Ryukyu Mid Season Review: Part 3

We have made it to the last installment of the Mid-Season Review. This has been a great experience as a fan to look back and reflect on the half season while keeping an eye on the future. I wanted to provide a brief summation of the players who have featured for FC Ryukyu but please keep in mind, I am never privy to the strategy the manager employs each week or how the players perform while executing that strategy. I merely observe what I can see from the stands and from my TV screen. So, let’s close out the mid-season review with a bang.

Goal Keeper

#1 Dany Carvajal: Yeah, he’s pretty much been awesome. Don’t think for one minute that because FC Ryukyu have only kept 3 clean sheets that it is an indictment of Dany’s performances. See the MVP section below.

#23 Ryo Ishii: He was asked to step up and fill in when Dany was hurt during a tough stretch of matches for FCR. He played really well against Kanazwa and Kyoto and while those efforts may be overshadowed by Dany’s performances to date, Ishii did his part to help this club.

Defender

FB #5 Tokumoto: Another young emerging player I fear FC Ryukyu may lose this transfer window. It’s hard to assess any FC Ryukyu FB as they are asked to play more like a WB than a FB this season. Tokumoto has provided 3 nice assists and is developing into a one of the better LBs in the J2. Currently recovering from an ankle and subsequent MCL injury.

#4 Okazaki: Started almost every match this year and is a nice compliment to Masutani. Truth be told, I only key on defenders when they make a mess of things, and in the case of Okazaki, he has only had that happen once. Some of his mistakes may be covered up due to FCR scoring numerous goals or winning games so I will need more time to assess this player. In the interim, we need Okazaki to be a rock back there on defense.

#2 Masutani: A CB in the mold of Gary Medel from Chile. I’ve been overly critical of this guy at times and that was just rash on my part as Masutani brings a lot of aggressiveness to the FCR squad. He is good in attack with 1 goal to his name this season and can handle some of the larger, more powerful strikers in the J2. I will say this, when he had to fill in for Nishioka at RB due to injury, the FCR attack looked better. Consider that it was simultaneous with the Nakagawa departure and though I think he may be better suited at FB, I am a fan and not the Manager.

#3 Nishioka: 2 goals and 2 assists. Nishioka has missed some time due to an MCL injury (not sure what caused him to miss upwards of 8 weeks) and struggles at times with defending. Always seems to be in the right spot at the right time for his goals. Displays toughness as evidence by playing through a head injury but his game needs some fine tuning. Needs to have more confidence in the attack, take on the opposition’s defenders near the 18-yard box – much like when he was brimming with confidence against Yamaguchi with his step overs – and feed Koji Suzuki quality crosses.

#33 Ryoji Fukui: The Swiss Army Knife for FCR. Versatile in that he can play all 4 positions in defense and could possibly fill in at CDMF as well. At times Fukui makes really well timed challenges but he also makes some questionable decisions in defense. For example, he can turn his back to an attacker, so as to invite a shot, which often leaves Dany or Ishii to deal with the danger alone (Tokyo Verdy’s goal). Maybe the GKs have asked the defenders to vacate the shooting lanes to better see the shots from distance but I will never know for sure. Has decent speed to make up ground on attackers or get to contested balls first. Have a sneaky suspicion that one of his challenges will be rewarded with a Red Card some day and put FC Ryukyu up against it in a match. Time will tell.

#16 Jumper Arai: Not enough game footage for an accurate assessment.

Mid Field

#20 Uesato: Local lad, experienced player, 2 highlight reel goals and team captain. Often lines up for FKs where, truth be told, I think Tomidokoro could benefit from the added reps to get into a groove. It seems Uesato prefers to shoot more than cross and maybe that’s due to the angle or distance from which he’s taking the FKs. Scored in spectacular fashion against Verdy and Gifu and is aiding with the development of the younger generation of FCR players.

#8 Komatsu: Was in the starting lineup early and then has faded. Possibly getting surpassed by talented players emerging.

#6 Kazama: Has a nice touch on FKs and CKs from his Central Mid Field role. His performances have improved as of late and I hope that translates into favorable results for FCR.

#19 Ochi: 2 goals from the man who is now Higuchi’s choice at CAM. At least until someone is ready to take the job over.

#11 Keita Tanaka: Keita has been part of the fabric of this team for so long. Tanaka is lethal finisher from the right, but much like Yu, he needs to get some repetitions and get into a scoring groove. He’s scored only once since rejoining the side but has had 3 other opportunities that either required a nice save by GK or were just off the mark. FCR need to get this man firing again as it will increase the potency of the FCR attack and open up more space of Suzuki down the middle.

#10 Yu Tomidokoro: FC Ryukyu’s FK specialist. Yu has found some tough sledding this season when it comes to FKs as he has netted only once. He does have 2 goals and 3 assists and the FK goals will come with time and reps. Needs to be given more opportunities on FKs. Remember, at his height, defenses never knew when Yu was going to cross or shoot from the FK spot and that is what made him so successful.

#28 Koizumi: The man featured in 6 games within a month before doing a Houdini. He never scored but he flashed some real talent. His limited performance against Verdy was something of an eye opener as he made some nice passes, hit the post and displayed a bit of pace. He could very well be the 3^rd piece to a formidable FC Ryukyu MF with Uejo and Kawai in the near future. WHERE IS HE?

#7 Nakagawa: HAHAHA wouldn’t do it to you, too painful. Next!

#13 Kawai: Has one goal and 2 assists this season. Is turning into a real playmaker for FC Ryukyu. Has another gear he can use to get past defenders and is fine tuning his game with each performance, specifically, his body & ball control while making cuts or getting up to speed. Maybe replacing Nakagawa can’t be done with just one player but rather a combination of players. If that is the case than Kawai’s introduction to the side is starting to fill that void. Kawai’s speed really opens up the attack for FCR and he has rightfully earned his spot in the starting 11.

Forwards

#14 Uejo: See Below, but seriously, I do not know why he doesn’t start. Is it due to fitness, immaturity, health concerns or the manager?

#21 Uehara: Has height, scored an important goal for FCR to beat Niigata. Didn’t see much from him prior to his goal and less so after. What happened? Injury?

#15 Wada: Played really well as a substitute versus Nagasaki but hard pressed for playing time with the leading J2 goal scorer ahead of you on the roster. His time will come.

#22 Gibo. I saw one appearance where Gibo displayed a lot of hustle. Subbed into an attacking MF position but then was moved to a FB position in the same game. He needs more playing time and I missed the Emperors Cup match for FCR to see how he performed and what are his strengths and weaknesses.

#9 Koji Suzuki: SEE BELOW.

Mid-Season MVPs

1A. Koji Suzuki. The man’s stats speak for themselves but if you peel back the curtain a little more, you see that he has scored crucial goals at very crucial times of matches for FCR. Yamagata, Yamagauchi, Kanazawa, Omiya and Mito all come to mind. He is also one of the most unselfish strikers I’ve ever seen. He puts in a shift every match. He does the hard work of hold up plays, winning contested balls and drawing fouls from the opposition while never complaining and rarely displays any outward frustration at his teammates. I have no idea what compelled Zelvia to let him go but I do not care at this point. He has proven to be an absolute steal in the transfer market.

1B. Dany Carvajal. Strong at the back and lethal up front is what makes any team great. Yes, of course, strong through the middle is another essential part but having the best striker and one of the best goal keepers in the league on your squad is pretty good as well. Dany has been a revelation for this side. He always seems to be in the right position, at the right time, to make the right type of save. And let me tell you, there have been some spectacular ones; against Omiya there were 2 to seal the win, the PK save against Verdy, resisting the Reysol bombardment, Vortis, Yamaguchi, Mito and list goes on and on. The FC Ryukyu front office did really well by signing Dany this offseason.

2. Satoki Uejo. This man has come out of nowhere and turned into quite the player. He has scored 6 times this season and is improving every time he steps out onto the pitch. He has some signatures goals to his name; Reysol, Vortis, Ehime, Nagasaki and Renofa (Emperor’s Cup). He also looks like he has packed on some muscle the past few months in order to fight off larger defenders. He needs to be out there every week for this side.

Looking Ahead

FC Ryukyu will play 10 games at home and 11 games on the road in the second half of the season. Within those 11 road games they will play 3 series of two consecutive road matches starting next week with Mito and Niigata. The next series is at the end of September with Machida and Fukuoka and finally to end the season against Ehime and Kofu. They also have 3 series at home where they will play consecutive home matches. The first wraps up this week with Okayama (started with Tochigi last week), the second is in August with Nagasaki and Yokohama and the third is at the end of August/early September with FC Gifu and Kagoshima. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the second half fixtures, make some predictions and then review the remaining fixtures for the bottom 4 clubs in J2.

It would be nice to see FCR earn wins against Tochigi and Ehime on the road as those 6 points could go a long way to helping secure J2 football for FCR in 2020. None of us know how the results will shake out considering we cannot predict the transfers in/out of clubs, injuries, managerial changes and plain old luck (good or bad). FC Ryukyu’s make or break month will be October with favorable matches against Avispa, Tochigi and Verdy. They need to be well clear of the relegation zone after that point because November could prove fatal if the road performances by FCR don’t improve. They face a surging Renofa side on the road, host a promotion seeking Kyoto side at home and wrap up the season with 2 road trips with a possible relegation battle against Ehime and potential promotion seeking side in Kofu. Even though I am targeting Ehime as a must win game for FCR, that will depend largely on FCR showing that they can win on the road when needed in the second half of the season.

With this in mind, lets look at teams who are currently sit 18-22 in the J2 table and examine their crucial months and critical match-ups in the second part of the 2019 J2 season.

#18 JEF Chiba United. JEF have a tough October where they face 3 sides who are likely going to be in the top 7. Depending on how those results play out, JEF could be dragged into the relegation battle. Their final match against Tochigi is huge for both sides.

#19 Kagoshima. The October and November schedule are not kind to Kagoshima. 3 road matches in October followed by a run of Kofu, Okayama, Reysol and Mito. They end on the road versus Fukuoka in another final match day matchup that could determine who gets relegated.

#20 Tochigi. The outcomes of their September fixtures will most likely determine their fate. They face FC Gifu, Fukuoka, Kagoshima and Ehime all in a row. That is a total of 4, 6-point match-ups in a row that could really doom any of those sides. As mentioned earlier, Tochigi end with JEF Chiba in what could be a win or go down to J3 match.

#21 Fukuoka. October and November are also not kind to Fukuoka. They are hoping that some of the sides around them perform poorly the rest of the year so as to give Fukuoka a chance at the end. Avispa end versus Kagoshima in a game we already mentioned that has massive relegation implications.

#22 FC Gifu. The schedule is kinder to FC Gifu in so much as there isn’t any one month remaining where they face multiple top sides in quick succession. The end of July/beginning of August will be rough on them but there are winnable games. But like Fukuoka, FC Gifu are hoping that things go terribly wrong for the few sides just above them in the table. Will it be the Vortis or Kofu match that ultimately dooms this side, or will it happen much sooner?

At the end of the day, FC Ryukyu need to go out there and handle their business without concerning themselves too much about the rest of the table. It is simple math for FCR: Beat the teams below you in the table especially those at the bottom, Get points off of teams just above you in the table, and win some games on the road. If they can do that, then they are going to be alright. I’d estimate that another 18 points are needed and FCR could achieve that any number of ways in the second half of the season.

I know I did not focus on which team may win the J2 title and which sides are likely to be promoted to the J1 in 2019 so I’ll save that for a later date.

Well folks, that is going to do it for the final installment of the FCR Mid-Season Review. I hope you enjoyed reading them as much as I enjoyed writing them. I’ll be adding two more entries this week with the Second Transfer Special of the year coming out on Thursday and the normal Match Day Preview coming out on Friday.

“Swift, Silent, Fierce & Impregnable!” Match Day 19 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. Ventforet Kofu 6/22/2019

Match Day 19 Preview: (H) FC Ryukyu versus Ventforet Kofu (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium, Kickoff at 1800, 6/22/2019.

Weather Forecast: Thunderstorms starting earlier in the day with scattered thunderstorms throughout the match. It will most likely be raining the whole time during the match so come prepared with ponchos, umbrellas, towels and bags to keep you items dry.

Yuck! The weather forecast will not help the Ryukyu attendance numbers

Intro

Kofu enter match day 19 after suffering a 2-0 loss at home to Tokyo Verdy. Kofu looked sluggish in that match and they rarely generated much going forward. FC Ryukyu, on the other hand, enter this match having come from behind twice to Kyoto on the road that saw Ryukyu earn a draw and return home with a point. I initially though this was going to be a very tough match-up for FC Ryukyu to walk away with any points, but the game footage for Kofu tells a different story.

Ventforet Kofu

Kofu come to Okinawa having won 3 out of their last five matches, in convincing fashion mind you, as well as earned a draw against Yamagata by coming from behind twice with one of those goals occurring very late in stoppage time. This team was firing on all cylinders prior to the Verdy match but since then, Kofu have suffered key injuries to their attacking front line.

Against Yamagata, Kofu had to sub off Dudu mid-way through the first half due to what looks to be a dislocated shoulder or damage to one of the ligaments. Dudu didn’t dress for the last match and I am not sure if he’ll be healthy enough to face Ryukyu tomorrow. The following match against Verdy saw the second strike partner up front, Soneda not even dress. That was massive as Soneda and Dudu have accounted for 9 of Kofu’s 26 goals, roughly one third, and pair nicely with Utaka up front. Their absence was very noticeable during the Verdy match as the once potent attack of Kofu has stalled out.

There are basically 3 scenarios facing FC Ryukyu tomorrow. First, if Dudu and Soneda do not dress, then we can expect to see a similar performance against Verdy from Kofu. If either Dudu or Soneda dress, then we can expect a back and forth match and will need to pay very close attention to Utaka. Finally, if both play, then Ryukyu face an uphill battle as these players will be well rested and this is a team that scored 9 goals in the four games prior to the injures. If scenario number one holds true tomorrow, then FC Ryukyu stand a very good chance of taking all 3 points in the match since the Kofu defense is rather poor and they lack any real attack. If either of the last 2 scenarios comes to fruition tomorrow, then FC Ryukyu are in a real tough spot with injuries to Carvajal and Tokumoto, as well as the suspension for Tanaka.

Kofu Players to Watch

I have already mentioned what Dudu and Soneda bring to the table for Kofu so let’s turn our attention to some other notable players in the Kofu squad.

#9 FW Peter Utaka. Leading scorer for Kofu with 8 goals and 1 assist so far this season. He seems to have a penchant for scoring braces as he’s had 3 games this season with 2 goals. He can overpower weaker defenders and will punish any stupid mistakes by the defender during open field challenges for the ball or in 1v1 situations. FC Ryukyu need to know where Utaka is at all times when he is in the 18-yard box.

#18 FW Koichi Sato. Comes on a substitute for most matches but has scored 4 times this season as a sub. More on that later. Can add some height to the Kofu attack and there is an outside shot he starts tomorrow.

#14 MF Shigeru Yokotani. Plays a central/defensive mid fielder role for Kofu and has 3 goals this season.

#39 DF Kenta Uchida. The defender has 3 assists on the season and can take a nice free kick for Kofu. I don’t know if Uchida is also the corner kick taker for Kofu but he can certainly deliver a nice ball into the box.

#26 MF Kazuhiro Sato & #28 MF Yuki Hashizumi. These two make the list as they are the replacements who have filled in for Dudu and Soneda the past 2 matches. Both have started 7 matches this year but do not offer the same upside to the attack that Dudu and Soneda do.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu are dealing with their own unique challenges this weekend so though it may seem they have the upper hand on paper, in reality, things are probably even between both sides. First, Tokumoto picked up a non-contact ankle injury last week against Kyoto that will see him miss 3-4 weeks. Second, Keita Tanaka will serve a 1 match suspension for the accumulation of yellow cards. This means FC Ryukyu will have to make 2 changes to a starting lineup that was starting to gel and get back to the scoring ways from earlier this season.

Tanaka will most likely be replaced by either Uejo, Kawai or Ochi but I am not sure who will feature on the bench for Ryukyu this week as I haven’t seen Koizumi’s name since Gifu. Tokumoto will be replaced by Fukui which means we will need to dress another defensive player this weekend. I appreciate that Fukui can play both in and outside defense but certainly FC Ryukyu has some real defensive depth issues if they are more willing to move both Fukui and Masutani to the FB position instead of leaving them inside and bringing up reserve FBs. I guess we will not only find out tomorrow but also during the Emperor’s Cup next month.

Aside from the unknown, Ryukyu are coming into the match having drawn twice, lost twice and won once in their last five matches. However, FC Ryukyu are a very difficult team to beat at home, as evidenced by the 30-game home unbeaten streak, and they just play better at the Tapista. Ryukyu’s last few home matches have seen them battle back against Kanazawa, overcome a late goal from Niigata to score one of their own to win and beat the number one team in J2 in Mito. This offers some hope going forward as Ryukyu is making life difficult for the visiting J2 sides.

Key Injuries or Suspensions

FC Ryukyu: MF Keita Tanaka (SUS), GK Danny Carvajal (INJ) & DF Shuhei Tokumoto (INJ)

Ventforet Kofu: FW Dudu (INJ) & MF Yutaka Soneda (INJ)

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Press the Kofu back-line into making mistakes. The Kofu defense is not that great and #22, Yuta Koieda, is a pretty bad CB. FC Ryukyu needs to press the Kofu back-line when they are in possession as they are very unsure of themselves and often make poor decisions that can lead to turnovers . With so much attacking power on Kofu they have yet to learn how to play the ball out from the back and Ryukyu should exploit this weakness. The horrible mistake by the defenders last week against Verdy led directly to Verdy’s second goal.

2. Know where all the Kofu attackers are at, at all times, but especially when they are in or just outside the 18-yard box. The Kofu attackers have the uncanny ability to lose their markers at key times and then score goals. Ryukyu cannot afford to cede an otherwise easily defended goal to Kofu tomorrow. Kofu’s formation allows the squad to crash the box once they gain possession down either flank in the deep ends of the opposition which can then overwhelm the defense. Uesato and Komatsu have to stay on top of this tactic and aide the Ryukyu back line.

3. Attack the Kofu back line with speed and misdirection passes. Koji Suzuki should have his way tomorrow with Kofu defenders so long as Ryukyu feed him quality passes. Kofu defenders don’t seem to mark well which means Ryukyu players should find plenty of space to maneuver inside the Kofu box. Kofu also doesn’t defend corners all that well so this is another opportunity for Ryukyu to get on the front foot.

4. Mark Koichi Sato in the final minutes of the match. Sato has scored an eye popping 4 stoppage time goals this season as a sub. He has earned 3 points for Kofu in those 4 matches since 3 of the games ended in draws. FC Ryukyu must maintain their focus at the end of the match and not allow Sato any time or space in the box.

Match Prediction

If this was the same Kofu squad that was brushing aside opponents from earlier in the season than I would have predicted a loss for FC Ryukyu. However, this is a weakened Kofu side that comes into the match in poor form and lacking any real punch up front outside of Utaka. Sound defending by Ryukyu coupled with a ruthless attack should see Ryukyu prevail tomorrow. FC Ryukyu 2-1 Ventforet Kofu.

Conclusion

FC Ryukyu will once again be playing in less than optimal weather conditions this weekend. Thankfully Ryukyu are becoming accustomed to playing in such poor conditions as this will be at least their 6^th time this season that they have had to endure rain and wind in a match. That fact, along with Kofu’s injuries, recent poor form and not so great record for matches started in the evening hours, sets FC Ryukyu up nicely to grab all 3 points at home tomorrow and provide a massive boost to their point tally.

See you all out there tomorrow and let’s do our best to stay dry. Come on Lads!

Match Day 7 Preview: JEF United Chiba vs FCR

Match Day Info: 04/03/2019 (H) JEF United Chiba vs FCR (A) at the Fukuda Denshi Arena Chiba Kickoff at 1900

Weather Forecast: Temperatures will be in the high 40s with no rain expected and only a slight 8-10 mph wind all match. It will be cold so dress accordingly.

The JEF Chiba United team that enters this match versus FCR is very different than the one who started the season with consecutive losses. They fired their manager after the Mito match and replaced him with Atsuhiko Ejiri who has since breathed some life back into this once proud club.

JEF United Chiba: 19^th in J2 with 6 points. 1W3D2L. Current Form LLDDW

Earlier formations saw JEF in a 4-2-3-1 but Ejiri favors more of a 3-4-3 or 3-2-4-1 and is basically throwing all he can at the opponents to cover what should be considered a lackluster back line for Chiba.

The early run of fixtures for JEF this season witnessed awful play from their back line which largely put JEF at a disadvantage in these matches. There was also a lack of confidence when things didn’t seem to go their way but all that has changed with the new manager. In the short time since Ejiri has taken over at JEF, you can see a change in the style of play by JEF on the field and they are slowly beginning to regain their confidence. This is slightly worrying because in last weeks match preview I eluded to the notion that FCR was facing two opponents in a row who seemed to be in a bit of downward trajectory. I would argue now that this is not the case with JEF and FCR is going to face a very cagey opponent on the road who is playing as if there is nothing to lose.

I assume that expectations were very high for JEF and its players and so was the pressure to perform at the start of the season and you could see that in the way the team was performing. Now, they seem to be playing with a mentality of an animal backed into a corner who is forced to fight its way out of danger. They have slowly begun to regain their confidence beginning with the Mito match in Match Day 4. Despite this being the last game under the old regime, they played much better and were only done in by a very late goal. Whether it was known to the players at that time, that no matter what this was going to be the last game in charge by the out going manager or the players simply thought things couldn’t get much worse, JEF played with a real spring in their step.

JEF switched formations against Kyoto the following week by dropping a defender in exchange for another mid field player. This immediately paid dividends for JEF as it allowed them to create and take better chances on net. However, the defensive woes that plagued JEF early on still exist and allowed for Kyoto to jump out to the early lead. JEF was able to equalize late and nearly pulled it out at the end before almost conceding the victory to Kyoto in stoppage time.

JEF’s most recent match on the road versus Fukuoka saw them achieve victory for the first time all season where Ejiri once again favored a 3-person back line. JEFs attack must’ve been too much for Fukuoka who only had 2 shots and 2 corners all game. The game was a stalemate until the 80^th minute when #25 Yusuke Chajima beautifully struck a free kick that went around the Fukuoka wall and stunned the keeper, who didn’t move from his spot.

Players to Watch: There is no one player that truly stands out from this team and on the season JEF has scored 6 total goals from 6 different players. The entire front line that featured in JEF’s 4^th and 5^th matches were dropped in favor of some players who haven’t started since match day 3. Whether the manager viewed the upcoming fixtures against FCR and Kanazawa as much stiffer tests and therefore decided to rest his players against Fukuoko, or he was having to deal with injury, I think FCR can reasonably expect a more attack minded club on Wednesday night with fresh legs.

FC Ryukyu: 1^st in J2 14 points. 4W2D0L Current Form WWWDD Typical Formation 4-2-3-1

FCR once again found themselves in a tough match requiring some late game heroics by #9 Koji Suzuki to earn a point at home, keeping the undefeated streak intact, and maintain their grip on the top spot in J2.

The game was definitely there for the taking but the ball just didn’t bounce FCRs way this match. Carvajal made a costly mistake early in the second half that occurs from time to time but he recovered quite well after that to save a tie for FCR late. #14 Uejo had a wide-open opportunity on net that was blocked by a Renofa defender in the 66^th minute that could have leveled the match and possibly led to things turning out differently for FCR.

FCR subbed out Tanaka, Uejo and Tomidokoro in the match in what I am assuming is a move to conserve some energy for these players with the fixtures piling up quickly this week. #13 Kawai came on in place of Tanaka and proved to be the difference maker when his well-placed cross found the head of Koji Suzuki who then equalized for FCR in the 88^th minute. Carvajal was called into action one last time with a nice save in the 90^th minute and the game ended in a draw.

FCR created plenty of chances in the match and it was an encouraging sign for the club moving forward. When teams challenge FCR with a heavy focus on attack, it allows space and movement for the FCR midfield and attack going forward. When teams play a more defensive minded style that overloads the midfield, FCR struggles to break out and create chances. We will see how Yasuhiro Higuchi approaches this match up and what lineup he favors on such a short week in which FCR has traveled to the mainland.

Keys to FCR Victory: 1. Pressure the back line of JEF and force them into making mistakes. The back line of JEF has seen several variations and player combinations in the early part of the season. At times they seem disorganized and lack communication with each other that has allowed opponents to get in behind for chances on net. If JEF plays with the back 3 line and 3 to 5 attacking players up front I would expect FCR to have plenty of chances on net.

2. FCR scores first. The JEF stadium is always packed with their supporters and I expect Wednesday night to be no different. As mentioned earlier, the team is slowly regaining confidence and their first win at home this season would be very uplifting for the club and their supporters. An early goal or more importantly, the first goal of the game, by FCR could help in several ways. It could quiet the JEF crowd and then make them grow restless with their squad, it may induce a sense of urgency on part of JEF to equalize quickly thus opening them up for quick counters by FCR and finally, it could calm the FCR nerves on the road in a tough atmosphere. Playing with a lead on the road is a lot easier than playing from behind and will certainly help relax the team.

3. Continue the attacking ways for FCR. Our best defense is our offense. We need whoever is occupying the CAM role to start forward thrusts at the JEF defense. Suzuki showed that he can finish if he is provided service while making runs into the box and the FCR FWD will require plenty of service in this match. FCR needs to create as many opportunities as they can with their attacking Mid Fielders and Striker as the weakest link the JEF team is the back line.

Match Prediction: Well as I stated in the Renofa Match Recap, if you can predict the lineup with better accuracy than me, I’ll make a charitable donation to an organization of your choosing in your name. There is one caveat, all submissions must be posted to this blog prior to 11 am Wednesday morning.

My predicted Lineup:

GK: Carvajal

LB/RB: Tokumoto & Jumpei Arai

CB: Koji Fukui & Shogo Nishikawa

CDM: Uesato & Komatsu

LMF: Ochi

RMF: Kawai

CAM: Uejo

FWD: Wada

Reserves: Ishii, Suzuki, Nishioka, Okazaki, Tanaka, Tomidokoro, Kazama

Well I am looking forward to mid-week football for FCR, granted it isn’t the Asian Champions League, but one day it will be. Please tune into DAZN if you subscribe or head somewhere to watch this match. I believe it will be a very pacey, end to end match, with opportunities by both sides that hopefully sees FCR emerge victorious. This match also has special meaning to me because it was one year ago that my son was born on April 3^rd and I hope that adds a bit of luck for FCR, after all, he was born in the year they won J3 League!

Photo credit goes to @pipu_ryukyu: ヤマキタ@FC琉球専用アカウント