2019

Intro

Fresh off their second consecutive road win, FC Ryukyu welcome 4^th placed Omiya Ardija to town on Sunday. Omiya, after having bested Verdy, Nagasaki and Mito, were shocked at home by Tokushima Vortis this past weekend. These two sides first met back on match day 2 where FC Ryukyu defeated Omiya 4-3. My how the fortunes of both sides have changed since then. FC Ryukyu would go on to win 2 more in a row, in addition to drawing 2 in a row, before they began their downward slide in the J2 table. Omiya on the other hand, weathered a slow start to the season and eventually rose into the promotion zone and are flirting with automatic promotion to the J1. I seriously doubt that FC Ryukyu will once again catch Omiya off-guard and this is will be another tough test against a formidable opponent at home for FC Ryukyu.

Weather Forecast

Cool temperatures with overcast skies and slight chance of rain. It will be a little windy so I’d bring the sunblock to prevent any windburn to your face if your sitting up high in the stands.

Recap of Match Day 2: 03/02/2019 Omiya Ardija 3-4 FC Ryukyu

On a cool, crisp, March afternoon in Saitama, FC Ryukyu had one of their most convincing wins and signature matches all season. A beautifully taken shot from Tanaka, a Koji Suzuki brace capped with Satoki Uejo opening his scoring account for the 2019 season gave FC Ryukyu 4 goals. Dany made some spectacular saves, especially late on, and Kazaki Nakagawa was the true star with 3 assists.

The scoring began with the Tanaka opener, followed by the equalizer from Omiya after Delgado redirected a shot over Carvajal. Then FC Ryukyu busted out for 3 straight goals in the opening 16 minutes of the second half to jump out to a 4-1 lead. Omiya were awarded a very late PK and then scored on quick counter in the first minute of stoppage time to bring the game to a 4-3. Dany made a great diving save to parry a shot away from danger later on and FC Ryukyu would hold on to win. A win that nobody saw coming.

There are many bittersweet memories from this match. First, it was a testament to Nakagawa’s skill and those 3 assists saw him as the top assist provider in J2 well after he departed for Yokohama F Marinos 2 weeks later. Second, Koji was happy and scoring at will and third, Uejo’s emergence was bubbling to the surface. Finally, it would ultimately take FC Ryukyu 16 more matches before they would win again on the road this season. For Omiya, they would respond with a win the following week, wobble slightly against Yamagata the next and then go on a run of 16 unbeaten that has since propelled them into the promotion battle. Oh, what could’ve been for this Ryukyu side. A side that since this Omiya match has seen no less than 6 changes to the starting lineup. Whereas Omiya has seen less than half of that total. It was one of the best footballing experiences I’ve had all season.

Omiya Ardija

Pace, Power and Height pretty much sum up Omiya at the moment. Omiya displayed a penchant for hitting teams on the counter over their last 5 games and they can quickly break out of their own end and into the opponent’s end with just a few passes. They can send long balls over the top that allow the attacking 3 to run underneath them bringing them past the oppositions defense and free on goal. Omiya were also lethal from set pieces, corner kicks in particular, where their height and power prove to be too much for opposing defenders. They can also press teams that attempt to play it out form the back if they feel this is a weakness of the opposition. They pressed Nagasaki in this manner and it resulted in a goal after a cheap giveaway in the Nagasaki end.

Even though Mito jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Omiya, Ardija was able to fight back and score 3 goals against a team that doesn’t conceded many goals to begin with. They had some slight trouble against Verdy before converting 2 corner kicks to win 2-0 and they really made Nagasaki look like an average side in a convincing 3-0 victory. They were nearly beaten at the end by Yokohama FC when Yokohama hit the crossbar, but walked away with an important point on the road against a promotion seeking side. The only outlier in the past 5 games was the recent loss to Tokushima Vortis.

It was a back and forth contest between the 2 sides with Vortis opening the scoring from a play that seemed to catch Omiya flat footed. Omiya responded with a counter attack goal before Vortis once scored from a busted play after Omiya failed to clear. Omiya responded with a headed goal on a set piece but Vortis got the best of them at the end with a 3^rd goal.

All in all, Omiya represent a difficult challenge for FC Ryukyu this Sunday. Omiya surely want to continue their promotion push, and they may have revenge on the mind, after FC Ryukyu walked into their home ground and put 4 past them in convincing fashion earlier this year.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu responded really well after losing 5-1 to Tokyo Verdy at home by defeating Tochigi SC on the road 2-0. Two really well taken goals by Uejo, one with his left foot and one with his right foot, has put FC Ryukyu on 43 points, which is roughly 13 points clear of the drop zone. Though FC Ryukyu started the Tochigi match sluggish, they really turned it on in the last 25 minutes and Tochigi had no response. FC Ryukyu have now won 2 in a row on the road and are undefeated in their last 4 road matches. Quite a turnaround from a few months ago when FC Ryukyu were struggling mightily on the road and losing at home.

There was some shifting of the FC Ryukyu lineup this past week with Shinji Ono and Yu Tomidokoro being dropped for Shuto Kawai and Koki Kazama. However, FC Ryukyu face a real selection crisis this week as they will be without both their Right Backs, Torikai and Nishioka, who have both succumbed to injuries. Torikai picked up his ankle injury early in the first half against Tochigi, requiring Uehara to fill in at RB, and the injury will see him miss the remainder of the 2019 season. And possibly the start of the 2020 season as he rehabs a dislocated ligament. Nishioka suffered an ankle injury in training and he is scheduled to miss at least the next 3 matches. Which begs the question, who will FC Ryukyu start this Sunday at RB?

Though Uehara filled in admirably, he is certainly not the solution over the next 3 matches. Outside of Tokumoto, Okazaki and Fukui, FC Ryukyu have only 2 defenders with any match day experience this season. One of those, Arai, only featured for a few minutes on the very first match of the season. There has been no word on whether or not Shogo Nishikawa, the only other FC Ryukyu defender to feature in a match this year, has suffered an injury or is healthy enough to start. In either event, we will need both of them to be healthy and in the lineup on Sunday. That is, unless newly acquired Daniel Sanches is finally ready to make his debut? It’s really anybody’s guess at this point as to what Higuchi will do to fill the void at RB in Ryukyu the lineup.

Player Injuries

FC Ryukyu: Will be without both starting RBs in Torikai and Nishioka.

Omiya Ardija: No one significant to the starting 11. Two defenders who were hurt earlier in the season is all that is reported.

Keys to FC Ryukyu Victory

1. Start fast and build a multiple goal lead. This worked the last time these two sides met and almost worked for Mito a few weeks ago. Granted Mito ended up losing and this a far different lineup for FC Ryukyu. Ryukyu really do not lineup well against Omiya with their speed up top, height at the back and ability to score from counters and set pieces. There will be goals tomorrow for sure, just hope we have more than Omiya do at the end.

2. Do not concede many set pieces. This is especially true of corner kicks where Omiya’s tree trunks; Delgado and Simovic, will certainly overpower their man marking.

3. Pick your poison. If we play out from the back, I expect heavy pressing by Omiya that forces Ryukyu into making mistakes and costly turnovers. If we attempt to play high up the pitch, we risk over exposing the makeshift back 4 of Ryukyu to the speed of the Omiya counter attack. No easy choice.

4. Win the battle down our defensive right side and we may win the game. I’d expect a heavy dose of crosses and attacks emanating from our right side, the Omiya left, against whoever is asked to fill in at RB on Sunday for Ryukyu. We will need some defensive help over the top from one of the Mid Fielders for the Ryukyu RB and this could mean large stretches of little possession for Ryukyu on Sunday.

5. Clean up the garbage in the box on both ends. Don’t allow needless shots on our goal from shots that are blocked or saved. On the flip side, Omiya has a hard time cleaning up the garbage in front of their own goal and conceded a couple of goals from this spot. Somehow Omiya concedes goals, loses matches and has small defensive lapses. This is the smallest of cracks in their armor but an exploitable one.

The Contrarian Approach: Start Kawai, Koizumi and Ramon and attack Omiya with speed early and often. Start Daniel Sanches and Okazaki at CB and have Fukui slide out wide to the Right.

Match Day 38 Prediction

The numbers indicate that Omiya is on a tear with 10 to 5 goals scored/conceded ratio over the course of their last 5 matches. Ryukyu haven’t scored nearly as many but they have kept a clean sheet in 3 of those matches. 2-1 Omiya would be considered a respectable score line on Sunday.

Link to Match Day Info on FC Ryukyu Website: http://fcryukyu.com/news/21400/

Plenty of useful info and the page can be translated into English. There are maps for free parking with shuttles to the match and a schedule of events for the match day.

Important Fixtures on Match Day 38

Conclusion

It looks as if the club is expecting a larger than usual traveling contingent of fans for this one and has adjusted the seating accordingly. This maybe due to the pre-match festivities where Bando will conduct one of his retirement ceremonies and the popular MONGOL800 band will perform just before kickoff. With that said, its probably best to get there early if you want a seat in the covered section. The club’s president, Mr. Subaru Mikami, tweeted that he’d like for the overall attendance numbers to hit 100,000 for the season and I think there will be a strong showing on Sunday somewhere in the vicinity of 7,000 to get us close to the mark.

But I am not there for the pre-match pomp and circumstance. I am there to watch my team one last time at home before I depart for a lengthy spell away from Okinawa. I will still be able to see the boys close out the season at Kofu but I want to enjoy all that has been at home this season. The drama, the thrills, the let downs, the come-backs and of course enjoying matches with all of my fellow FC Ryukyu fans and the players. With safety all but guaranteed for next season, I want to see the boys play loose, relaxed and carefree on Sunday. Omiya has more at stake than FC Ryukyu since we no longer need to hunt for results to ensure safety. FC Ryukyu are simply playing for pride, playing the role of spoiler against sides seeking promotion, but most importantly, playing for Okinawa and all the fans of this club.

So join me on the walk down the Bengara Boulevard and into Fortress Ryukyu one last time this season. Give em hell boys and make us proud. You always do!

“Numbers Game” Match Day 29 Preview: Tokushima Vortis vs FC Ryukyu 8/24/2019

Intro

174 days. That is the amount of time that has passed since FC Ryukyu last won a road game. 69 days. This number represents the number of days since FC Ryukyu last earned a point on the road. -11. FC Ryukyu have been outscored 17 to 6 in their past 5 road matches with 4 consecutive defeats. 11. That is the number of points between FC Ryukyu and the bottom of the table. 7. The number of points that separate FC Ryukyu from 21^st placed Tochigi SC, who are in the relegation zone. 4. The number of points between FC Ryukyu and teams 18-20 in the J2 table (Kagoshima United FC, Avispa Fukuoka and FC Machida Zelvia). With 8 out of their remaining 14 games to be played on the road, this side needs to begin picking up some positive results while traveling away from Okinawa, or face the very real possibility of being relegated back to the J3.

Weather Forecast

Overcast with temperatures in the 80s and no wind should make for a pleasant viewing experience in Tokushima for the fans who attend.

Tokushima Vortis

Vortis have won 2 out of their last 5 matches where they dispatched Fukuoka and Kagoshima, and lost to Yamagata, Niigata and Kofu. Vortis are a typical mid-table side that beat the teams below them fairly regularly while normally losing to the ones above them. They were in some good form awhile back but that has seemed to escape them as of late. Vortis have only suffered 3 defeats at home all season but two of those have come within the past 3 home matches.

Similar to FC Ryukyu, Vortis lack a standout goal scorer. This may have been due to a transfer out of the club but I didn’t bother to research that notion. Against Yamagata they were awarded an early PK but then had the misfortune of having one of their best players, Kiyotake, sent off following a second yellow card for time wasting. After that they came apart in the second half and conceded 3 quick goals. Though Vortis went down early to Kagoshima, they scored two very late 1^st half goals to take the lead. They then surrendered the lead shortly thereafter on a PK only to seem them strike back for 2 quick goals in the last quarter of the game to seal the win.

Vortis were simply destroyed by both Niigata and Kofu and suffered shutouts in both matches which may have been the result of Kiyotake’s suspension. Vortis were able to stop the losing streak this past weekend against Fukuoka when they walked away with the 1-0 victory.

FC Ryukyu

The numbers I put forth in the introduction paint a very ominous picture for the club. They really need points and there is a possibility of that this week at Vortis since they are not the same surging side we saw just a couple of weeks ago. I have said things similar to this in past entries when FC Ryukyu travel and the results are always the same. A loss, or what we now would gladly settle for, a draw. Teams really take advantage of our poor road form and the lack of points earned on the road have become a monkey on the back of this club. It will take some sort of miracle to shake it loose and get back to winning ways.

I offer this suggestion. Get rid of the 4-2-3-1 since we lack a true out and out striker and we are reeling from injuries as well as transfers at the back. There is no point in having Full Backs launch poor aimed crosses to players who are simply not there or not well suited for headers. Since we no longer have Koji, why not play a 3-man strike front with Uejo and Ramon flanking any of Uehara/Ono/Tanaka/Koya? Drop down to a 3-man back line with Okazaki, Nishikawa and Fukui and leave Okazaki and Fukui out wide to allow Nishioka the ability to push a little north of the half way line. Most importantly, figure out the 3 best midfielders to team with Uesato to complete the 3-4-3. I wish for Kawai, Koizumi and Komatsu but this is highly unlikely due to injuries and whatever else is occurring behind closed doors at the club.

Player Injuries

FC Ryukyu: Tokumoto and Ishii are still dealing with the same injuries from the last preview and are unlikely to feature today.

Tokushima Vortis: Vortis will be without the services of DF Diego, MFs Kano and Sisinio and FWD Sato. None have played a large role at the club this season so there should be no surprises in the regular Vortis lineup today.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Press the Vortis defense as it seems they suffer from the same problems that afflict the Ryukyu back line. Uejo’s, and Ramon’s speed will cause the Vortis back line some issues and attacking their flanks with speed should open up space for Koya and whatever false-9 forward is starting for FC Ryukyu today.

2. Stop playing a high defensive line as Vortis will pick us apart with long balls over the top to Kiyotake and the Vortis front men. FC Ryukyu’s only defender with a little bit of pace is Fukui but if he is continually forced to make rash challenges, we are going to end up on the losing end of it at some point. Don’t put players like Nishioka – assuming Higuchi refuses to change his system – Fukui and Okazaki in dangerous positions that could alter the outcome of this match.

3. Start Ramon and other younger talented players. I think Yu needs a breather and to come off the bench with the hopes of chipping in a free-kick goal near the end. There are 14 games left and we are very near, if not already there, a “nothing to lose” point so why not ride the razors edge and see what we have in the reserves.

Match Prediction

I was correct for only the second time all season last week but I would love to be wrong this weekend. Unfortunately, you cannot bet on FC Ryukyu to achieve any positive results while traveling with likeliest of outcomes always being a loss. Tokushima Vortis 2-1.

Conclusion

FC Ryukyu have a golden opportunity today to put some separation between them and the bottom teams. The teams below FC Ryukyu all have difficult matches this week where we could see all of them losing.

(17) JEF United Chiba vs Ventforet Kofu (7)

(4) Yokohama FC vs Kagoshima (18)

(3) Kyoto Sanga FC vs Avispa Fukuoka (19)

(9) Fagiano Okayama vs FC Machida Zelvia (20)

(6) Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC (21)

(22) FC Gifu vs Kashiwa Reysol (1)

If that were the case, and FC Ryukyu were to win today, then FC Ryukyu have really taken a lot of pressure off themselves as well as gained some confidence heading into a crucial stretch of matches at home against two of the bottom clubs in J2. This is easier said than done, as the road woes of FC Ryukyu are well documented and nearing “punch-line” territory. Another possibility is that all these teams, including FC Ryukyu lose and the status quo is maintained for another week. In any event, good luck to those that attend and to FC Ryukyu today.

“The Fighting Pheasants” Match Day 14 Preview: Fagiano Okayama vs. FC Ryukyu

Match Day 14 Preview: (H) Fagiano Okayama vs. FC Ryukyu (A) at the City Light Stadium, Kickoff at 1700 5/19/2019.

Weather Forecast: Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with what looks to be rain early in the day and possibly continuing up to and through kickoff. Winds of 10-20 MPH are expected so this could be a very nasty, very messy match played out on a wet pitch. The rain is expected to end sometime in the early evening but I’d prepare for the worst and bring my wet weather attire for this game.

The match up this week features two evenly matched teams in Fagiano Okayama and FCR. Okayama return home after two weeks on the road that saw them lose both matches against Yamagata and Kyoto. FC Ryukyu on the other hand, are coming into the match having just handed Mito Hollyhock their first loss of the season which subsequently knocked them out of first place.

Fagiano Okayama: 12^th in J2 with 16 points 4W4D5L Current Form: DWDLL Typical Formation: 4-4-2

GF15 GA 16 = Goal Difference -1; Scored 11 goals at home while conceding 9 this season.

Home Record: 3W3D1L

Record against Common Opponents of FCR: (8 games) 2W2D4L

Fagiano where an interesting team to scout this week as I see a lot of similarities between them and FC Ryukyu. The teams are only separated by 4 points in the table, each has earned victories via shutouts only twice this year and they have both been kept off the score sheet only a handful of times. It would seem that this match will feature some scoring as each side scores and concedes plenty of goals.

In match day 10, Okayama was able to overcome a sluggish start and quick goal from a Vortis PK to win 2-1 behind goals from #9 Lee Yong Jae and #19 Hayato Nakama. Okayama nearly handed the match to Tokyo Verdy the following week when they gave up a late PK but Verdy were unable to convert the PK or follow on shot. Against one of the top seeds in J2 this year, Yamagata, Fagaiano conceded a first half goal but nearly pulled out the draw after #19 Nakama was able to win the ball back in the Yamagata end and send a cross to #9 Jae, whose header glanced off the crossbar. Fagainao’s last match against Kyoto saw them cede an early own goal to the hosts (though it wasn’t credited as such) followed by a very late goal in the 84^th minute that handed them a loss.

Okayama never looked out matched or outgunned in any of the 4 matches I reviewed for this preview. If anything, Fagaiano has started out a little sluggish only to come on later in matches and this is something that FC Ryukyu needs to exploit this week.

Okayama Players to Watch:

# 9 Lee Yong Jae FW. Leading Goal scorer on Okayama with 8 on the season, 6 in his past 6 matches and is the second leading scorer in J2 this year. Lee is a big, powerful forward that FC Ryukyu will struggle against. What separates Lee from other larger strikers in J2, like Jefferson Biaino from Yamagata and Olunga from Reysol, is his pace. His quickness was evident against Tokushima and when combined with his strength, makes Lee a formidable forward. Lee is also good at finding space in the defensive back lines of teams and can rise to meet crosses in the box. He is in top from right now coming into this match and FCR had better watch out.

#19 Hayato Nakama MF. Nakama is the second leading scorer on Okayama with 4 goals and one assist on the season. Together with Lee, these two represent 80% of the goals scored for Okayama on the year. Nakama is quite the playmaker with a very lethal left foot. In the four games I watched, he and Lee, are in synch with one another and seem to find the other often in the opponent’s end.

FC Ryukyu: 8^th in J2 with 20 points 5W5D3L Current Form: DLDLW Typical Formation: 4-2-3-1

GF 19 GA 15 Goal Difference of +4; FCR have scored 7 goals on the road and have conceded 9.

Away Record: 1W2D3L

Record Against Common Okayama Opponents: (8 games) 3W3D2L

FCR travel to the Okayama prefecture after having handed Mito Hollyhock their first loss of the season in a very tightly contested match. FCR were able to shut out an opponent for only the second time all season thanks in large part to the efforts by Danny Carvajal between the sticks. FCR scored early against Mito from an absolute bullet header from Koji Suzuki for his J2 league leading 9^th goal and he nearly doubled his tally shortly thereafter only to see his shot deflect over the top of the goal. Tokumoto nearly put the game out of reach late in the second half, which would’ve been a tremendous feat as Mito have yet to surrender multiple in goals in any game this year, but his shot hit the post and the resulting Tomidokoro rebound went high and wide. Nonetheless, FC Ryukyu earned a hard-fought win against the top team in J2 and secured that elusive 5^th win that has evaded FCR for the better part of 2 months.

FC Ryukyu will have some serious questions to answer this week after Okazaki picked up his fourth yellow card this year resulting in a one match ban. As I’ve mentioned on several occasions, the depth of the FCR back line is of great concern. Masutani has been forced to fill in the past 7 weeks at RB while Nishioka recovers from what I assume was an MCL, PCL or LCL sprain. I am not sure what FC Ryukyu’s plan will be for this week because we only have 3 healthy CBs, one of which is filling at RB, and haven’t tried any other player on the roster at RB in Nishioka’s absence. Does FCR slide Masutani back to his CB role and push #16 Arai into the RB slot, or, do they instead opt to start #30 Nishikawa at CB -who is always on the reserves for FCR matches – and keep Masutani at RB? These are tough questions for Higuchi to contemplate.

FC Ryukyu keys to victory:

1.) Stop the Okayama attack in the form of Lee and Nakama. Easier said than done in my mind. These two are wreaking havoc on the opposition as of late and in light of injuries and suspensions to the FCR back line, these two may prove fatal to FCR on the day. Nakama plays down the left which means he will run into either Masutani or Masutani’s replacement on Sunday. Nishiokoa was seen participating in warm ups last week but he had a large knee brace on. I doubt he is match fit and won’t be for another 2-3 weeks. I’d prefer that FCR start Masutani at RB as his speed should at least cover the quickness of Nakama. Nakama is a powerful player in his own right so Masutani must fight for positioning against Nakama at all times. I worry that so much of the FCR attack comes from our Right and Left Fullbacks that FCR could be severely punished on all counter attacks down the left.

As far as Lee is concerned, he must be marked on all set pieces. He can be seen taking some long runs into the box on set pieces to generate height and power for headers and FCR must get in the way of those runs. If you combine Lee’s ability to rise and meet headers with FCRs inability to defend set pieces, and now lack of height and experience at the back with Okazaki suspended, this seems like a recipe for disaster.

2.) Stretch the pitch laterally and pull the back line of the Okayama 4-4-2 apart. One of the easiest ways to create scoring opportunities against the 4-4-2 lineup is quick changes in direction. Tomidokoro, Tanaka and now Kazama up front need to be quickly passing it off down the flanks as this will create the mismatches in defensive coverage. From there, crosses into the box for Suzuki or over the central defenders to the other attacking Mid Fielders of Ryukyu should open up plenty of shooting lanes for the Ryukyu attack.

3.) FC Ryukyu need to start fast and get out to an early 2 goal lead. This will allow FCR to deal with the Okayama onslaught from Lee and Nakama and open up Fagiano for a 3^rd goal.

Match Prediction: Seeing how I am like 1-12 on the year so far with match predictions there really is no point in providing any educated guess. All I will say is that FCR could really benefit from their second road win of the season as the matches will get tougher from here on out for the boys from Okinawa. I like both teams to score and see this match ending 1-1.

For those of you staying in Okinawa to watch the match, please join me at the Arcade Resort Okinawa or Café Camp Nou (if it is open) to catch the game. Good Luck boys!