Match Day 20 Preview: (H) V.Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Ryukyu (A) at the transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki 6/29/2019, Kickoff at 1800.

Weather Forecast: Another wet and nasty match for FC Ryukyu as the rainy season here in Japan is relentless this year. Temperatures in the high 70s all match with rain and thunderstorms. Stay dry, if you can.

Intro

FC Ryukyu enter the match after suffering their heaviest loss to date in the J2. The 5-2 loss to Kofu at home also ended Ryukyu’s 30 game home unbeaten streak. Nagasaki on the hand are coming into the match having lost at home to Yamagata last weekend but are fresh of a 2-0 victory in the Levain cup this past Wednesday. This will be an interesting match-up as Ryukyu cold very well leave Nagasaki with a point since the hosts have lost 4 times at home this season and have also seen matches against Renofa and Kagoshima end in draws. Ryukyu are 8 points clear of the relegation zone and need a point as there will almost certainly be some shifting inside the table with so many of the lower 11 teams squaring off this weekend.

V.Varen Nagasaki

It almost seems as if Nagasaki prefers playing on the road compared to home this year as they have two more victories on the road than they do at home. They easily dispatched Chiba on the road with a resounding 4-1 win. They followed that up with a 3-2 loss to Okayama at home where Okayama jumped out to a 3 goal lead. Nagasaki had an early 2 goal lead against Zelvia but saw that lead evaporate after an own goal was followed up by another goal from Zelvia 6 minutes later. Against Yamagata they gave the visitors an early 2 goal advantage but were able to peg one back in the first half. Nagasaki dominated the possession and shots on the day but were unable to break down the Yamagata defense and suffered their 4^th home loss this season.

One could argue that Nagasaki are a typical mid-table team as they’ve beaten almost every side they should’ve and lost to all the stronger sides in J2. I do not see a signature win for Nagasaki this season, within the constructs of the J2 as I am not including the Levain Cup matches, but Nagasaki have lit up both Chiba and Gifu for 4 goals this year. They seem to suffer the same fate as many of the mid table teams where they can have momentary lapses in concentration that lead to opportunities and goals for their opponent.

I have little doubt that Nagasaki have targeted this match for 3 points and they have every right too. Ryukyu have not been great on the road this season and are coming off a performance where they conceded 5 times at home to Kofu.  Nagasaki present a real challenge for Ryukyu this week because they play a 4-4-2 and Ryukyu struggle to break that formation down for opportunities and Nagasaki can also enjoy large spells of possession. This will mean Ryukyu will have only a few opportunities today, probably in the form of a second half surge for about 20-25 minutes.

Nagasaki Players to Watch

#33 FW Hiroto Goya. The man is simply on fire right now for Nagasaki. He has scored 11 goals this season but most impressive is that he has scored 8 goals in the past 7 consecutive matches. Ryukyu always seem to struggle against the more powerful strikers in J2 and today could be no different. Ryukyu must make life difficult for Goya or else he will make life very difficult for Ryukyu.

#16 FW Masakazu Yoshioka. Second leading scorer on Nagasaki with 6 goals. Plays down the left for Nagsaki.

#20 MF Yohei Otake. Plays down the right side for Nagasaki behind Goya and is the assist leader for V.Varen with 4 so far this year.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu started the Kofu match in great form. They dominated the possession and chances early and were rewarded with 2 goals. The first was a beautifully taken free kick by Kazama while the second by Ochi was a product of Kawai’s tenacity and speed. Ryukyu looked to be cruising at home until they surrendered a late first half goal which started Kofu’s run of 5 unanswered goals. While Kofu looked to be a team where the injuries had finally caught up with them, they simply waited for their time to hit back at Ryukyu. Kofu were attempting to break the Ryukyu defense down with long balls over the top that the attackers could run onto and when Ryukyu began committing more of the defenders forward in attack, Kofu found the space they needed to exploit the Ryukyu back line.

Ryukyu does not have the best away record. In 9 matches this season they have only 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses. If we broke the season down into quarters, we can see how Ryukyu earned a majority of their away points in the first quarter of the season with 5 and have only mustered 1 point in the second quarter while traveling. The statistics may not tell the whole story for Ryukyu as there were some injuries and suspensions to key players but nevertheless, Ryukyu needs to improve their road form in order to avoid a late season relegation scrap.

FC Ryukyu should see the return of Tanaka to the lineup today after his one game suspension and Ryukyu will most likely be without Tokumoto and Carvajal as they recover from ankle injuries. FC Ryukyu will need better passes and crosses from the 2 full backs of Fukui and Nishioka if they are to be successful today. Personally, I’d like to see Higuchi move Masutani out wide into a FB position and push Fukui back inside. Masutani is a better defender than Fukui but he is also a better attacker and if Ryukyu want to continue pushing FBs into the attack, then why not have someone who can deliver quality crosses and/or shots on net.

Player Injuries

V.Varen Nagasaki: #41 MF Yuki Omoto

FC Ryukyu: #5 DF Tokumoto & #1 GK Carvajal

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Apply pressure from all angles to Goya. He is far and away Nagasaki’s best player and one of the better finishers in the J2. The man is in top form right now as mentioned earlier with his recent run of goals. Ryukyu should not leave it to either Okazaki or Masutani to single handedly mark #33, but rather, should have multiple defenders pressing Goya from all sides to force him to expend more energy attempting to break free.

2. Do not over commit to the attack and leave our defenders exposed. Ryukyu were guilty of this during the Kofu match and they paid a heavy price for their mistake. If Goya is given large amounts of space to operate, he will punish Ryukyu with his strength, speed and finishing. Hopefully FC Ryukyu will adopt more of the same approach to the match that saw them earn draws against Yamagata and Verdy on the road.

3. Cut down on the turnovers and wayward passing. Ryukyu turned the ball over too many times against Kofu in addition to not providing accurate crosses/passes near Kofu’s 18-yard box. Ryukyu will need their full backs to deliver today and will certainly need better passing when in possession so as to avoid costly turnovers that can allow Nagasaki quick counters.

4. Execute the counter attack to perfection. Ryukyu will need to endure some serious spells of possession by Nagasaki throughout the match but when they do get their opportunity to strike back, Ryukyu need to break out quickly with speed. Kawai is turning into a valuable weapon that can cause all sorts of problem to opposing teams’ fullbacks. If Kawai can get behind the Nagasaki defense on a couple of occasions today it could free up some space for Suzuki. There is no guarantee that Kawai starts with the return of Tanaka today so we will have to wait and see.

Match Prediction

Nagasaki average 1.11 goals at home whereas Ryukyu concede an average of 1.55 goals as visitors. One could argue that the sides look even on paper when comparing Nagasaki’s home record and Ryukyu’s away record but Ryukyu have yet to win away from Okinawa in the past 8 matches. Nagasaki have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 at home with Ryukyu having won once, drawn 3 times and lost 5. Each has scored a total of 10 goals in those matches but Ryukyu have conceded slightly more often than Nagasaki.

Ryukyu hold a slight advantage when looking at each sides’ record against opponents in the top half of the table with Ryukyu scoring more goals against that level of competition compared to Nagasaki. This will also be Nagasaki’s 4^th match in 10 days and hopefully there are some tired legs on the Nagasaki squad that Ryukyu can exploit though most of the expected starters for Nagasaki were rested during their mid-week Levain Cup match. Hopefully this will be an enjoyable match to watch and I’d love to see Ryukyu score more than 2 goals.

Nagasaki 2-2 FC Ryukyu.

Conclusion

A point for Ryukyu would mean so much for a side that is struggling to keep opponents off the score sheet and earn wins on the road. Ryukyu will certainly have their chances today and they need to be clinical in front of goal. Good luck to the boys and those of you in attendance.