(21) FC Ryukyu vs (5) Oita Trinita #FC琉球

Intro

Well my friends we have reached the end of a very disappointing season for FC Ryukyu. Their loss last week at JEF, coupled with Gunma’s win (which is all that really mattered), has relegated FC Ryukyu to J3 next season barring some sort of miracle. That miracle being Iwaki being denied a J2 license for 2023 and FC Ryukyu finish in 21st place. I personally don’t think that is going to happen as indicated by Nacho’s (probably based on managements input) to resign at the end of the season. In other words, I believe the power brokers at FC Ryukyu already knew that Iwaki will be awarded the license and J3 football is in store for FC Ryukyu next year.

Weather Forecast and Match Day Info

The weather forecast for tomorrow is terrible. It is in keeping with how much of the season has gone in that we are playing under poor weather conditions. Does it really matter? No. It just sucks having to fight the weather and a terrible home record all year.

Click>>> Match Day Information from FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu Preview

What can I possibly put here this week? What is there for FC Ryukyu to build on following this season heading into 2023? Answer: Nothing really. The signs were there all season for the exact situation that FC Ryukyu find themselves in going into the last game of the season. I am going to treat this section as more of Q&A between myself with some of the questions I believe many of the supporters of this club are currently asking themselves, but Nacho’s departure in the midweek has taken at least one of those questions off the table.

What were the early indications, or consistent indications, this club was doomed for relegation this season? There were many. Ryukyu opened the season with just one (1) win in their first fourteen (14) matches, nine (9) of those games ended up as losses. How Kina wasn’t relieved during that stretch is simply amazing. There were eight (8) games this season in which Ryukyu surrendered a lead resulting in a loss compared to just five (5) games in which FC Ryukyu clawed back into the match for either a win or a draw. Not to mention the dubious Ryukyu track record for surrendering goals late in games.

FC Ryukyu surrendered thirty-five (35) of their goals this season in the second half, sixteen (16) of those occurring in the 76th minute or later. Compare that to just nineteen (19) goals scored for FC Ryukyu in the second half of games without even scoring a single goal in stoppage time. Ryukyu were the only team in J2 to have failed to score in stoppage time at the end of matches this season.

Ryukyu’s longest undefeated streak this year was just five (5) games with only a singular instance where FC Ryukyu won consecutive matches. Of course there was the absolute dagger to the heart for this club in the last quarter of the season where they won only one (1) game in ten (10) matches that included a goal-less streak of seven (7) consecutive games. But that speaks to a much larger problem at this club than just statistical analysis.

FC Ryukyu were marred by poor coaching, injures to key players, untimely CV-19 infections, and perhaps an inability of the players to adapt to a new coaching style under a foreign manager. The loss of Kusano for 3.5 months in the heart of the season sucked the life out of the already limp FC Ryukyu attack. Kiyotake’s face fracture at Iwate during another crucial stretch of games hurt and then the Takuma Abe Achilles injury being the catalyst to kick off Ryukyu’s run of goal-less games.

For as much as I have complained about the refereeing and overall lack of good luck for the club this year, FC Ryukyu did very little to put themselves in any sort of position to generate any luck. Keep in mind that two (2) of our seven (7) wins can be attributed to Own Goals by our opponents. There were definitely a few missed calls by the referees this season, none more crucial than the one last week where Ikeda was fouled in the box but play continued and JEF scored on the counter, but even a draw wouldn’t have mattered. To that end, FC Ryukyu surrendered a league leading ten (10) PK opportunities this season and were tied for second to last with only being awarded two (2) PKs all season. Simply put, the offense didn’t really do much in the opposing end compared to the defense that was prone to being caught out of position, leading to fouls on the opposition in our own end. How many times did we see FC Ryukyu go forward only to arrive there with no idea what to do?

Finally, Ryukyu obviously finished near the bottom of many statistical categories when it comes to goals scored and conceded this season which is largely due to the injury crisis we faced, along with the coaching throughout the season. There is no doubt that FC Ryukyu has some talented players but they were never able to put it all together at any one moment this season leading to such disjointed and disappointing results.

What do you think will happen next season? It is still too early to tell but I would expect a mass exodus from the club, players and staff, when it becomes apparent that the wage bill needs cut while operating on a much more restrictive budget. We all may hope for some of the players to return next season but can the club even afford them now? Could they ever? Who of them would you want to return before we turn into FC Retirement Community vice FC Ryukyu. I wouldn’t expect much difference in attendance levels, though some of the fans we picked up along our J2 journey are sure to leave, as we rarely crested the 2,000 mark all season. The gameday atmosphere will be much more subdued which can be somewhat salvaged if the J-League finally allows cheering throughout the stadium and drops the mask policy currently in place.

Can FC Ryukyu make a quick return to J2? For those of you out there thinking that FC Ryukyu can make a quick return to the J2 after 2023, lets look at the history for those teams that have been relegated since the inception of the J3 in 2014. Out of the fourteen (14) clubs that have been relegated to the J3 since its formation, only one (1) club has ever been relegated and then promoted back to J2 the following season. That honor belongs to Oita Trinita who were demoted following 2014 and won the J3 in 2015. Tochigi SC joined them in relegation that same season but lost in the 2015 J2/J3 playoffs, a tournament that has since been scrapped, and then were promoted back to J2 following their second season in J3 when Akita didn’t own a J2 license as league champions.

Thespakusatsu Gunma is the only team to spend just two (2) seasons in the J3 following relegation. Roasso Kumamoto and Giravanz Kitakyushu each spent three (3) years in the J3 and then it gets a bit frightening. Kitakyushu has since returned from their brief spell in J2 and look set for their second consecutive season in J3. SC Sagamihara and Ehime FC will also enjoy their second season in J3 following their demotion in 2021. Only Montedio Yamaga (relegated in 2021) has a chance of clawing back out if they can sneak back into the promotion zone, which would make for just the second ever instance of a team being relegated and then promoted. FC Gifu and Kagoshima FC will be back in the J3 for their fourth (4) consecutive seasons next year and then there are the two teams, Gainare Tottori and Kataller Toyama, who were demoted following the 2013 and 2014 seasons in J2, and who will be enjoying their 10th and 9th consecutive seasons in J3.

Knowing that it is extremely rare for clubs to rebound quickly, where do you think FC Ryukyu fits in among the teams above? Seems we could be enjoying J3 football here in Okinawa for at least three (3) to four (4) years before we make it back to J2. Maybe even longer, maybe even JFL if there are not drastic changes (at the top) for this club.

What should we look forward to this weekend? FC Ryukyu need to get a look at some of their fringe players against a good Oita team that is likely to be at full strength. We need to see these players against good J2 competition to see who is worthy of receiving a contract next season and who simply is not good enough for this level.

Round 42 in J2

Everything is pretty much finished at the bookends of the table. (1) Albirex Niigata are the champions and (2) Yokohama FC will be joining them in J1 for 2023. (21) FC Ryukyu and (22) Iwate Grulla Morioka are relegated to J3 barring the aforementioned scenario with Iwaki and pending their results this round.

(3) Fagiano Okayama has secured ‘home field advantage’ throughout the promotion playoffs but there is still a little bit to play for amongst the teams currently inside, or just outside, the playoff bracket. (4) Roasso Kumamoto sits one point above (5) Oita Trinita with Kumamoto playing at home against Yokohama FC and of course Oita traveling to face FC Ryukyu. Both teams will likely be at full strength for their games as each is aiming for a win and a loss by the other. Oita still has another way to leap frog Kumamoto if they draw with Ryukyu, and Kumamoto lose, as they would go through on goal difference.

Click>>> Tokyo Verdy v Fagiano Okayama

(6) Tokushima Vortis has the toughest fixture this round for any of the teams involved in the playoff race as they travel to (8) Montedio Yamagata who are just one point behind Vortis in the standings. An obvious win or go home situation for both teams and they’d like a little help from (12) Blaublitz Akita who are playing (7) Vegalta Sendai at home. These games should make for some exciting football to watch during the final slate of games this season.

Click>>> Montedio Yamagata v Tokushima Vortis

Conclusion

Tomorrow will bring a close to what has been a generally tough season to endure for FC Ryukyu fans. There were so few moments of joy, far outweighed by the disappointing ones, and one that leaves the club in a very precarious position heading into 2023.

For me, my journey with this club will continue. I haven’t decided on whether or not I’ll renew my season pass for what will be my tenth season supporting FC Ryukyu, or, I’ll just casually attend games under the limited covered seating inside the stadium so as to avoid the elements. I’ll continue to blog, but how often is still undecided, as this is one of the best spaces for me to portray my thoughts and feelings about FC Ryukyu, even if no one is listening and reading.

I look forward to seeing you all next season and best of luck throughout the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (8) Montedio Yamagata #FC琉球

Intro

As the season starts to wind down the relegation battle is morphing into a three (3), maybe four (4), team race. FC Ryukyu currently sit level with Gunma on 27-points while trailing Iwate and Omiya by 3 and 4 points. This is yet another tough draw for Ryukyu against a side situated in, or near, the promotion playoff zone but more importantly, against a team that Ryukyu has never defeated during their time together in J2. Yamagata, who always seem to have one of those lengthy undefeated streaks each season, has rebounded nicely to win four (4) of their last five (5) games following some surprising losses.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

One of the better forecasts we’ve had around here in quite some time. Hope it holds true.

Click>>> Match Day 32 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: One thing is for damn sure and that is, this team under Nacho’s direction doesn’t quit. Of course you would prefer to see Ryukyu playing from a position of strength vice having to respond to early adversity and goal deficits, but, you take the good with the bad. FC Ryukyu have only suffered a single (1) single loss in their last seven (7) games bringing Nacho’s record to an even 3W-3D-3L in the nine (9) games he has managed for Ryukyu. He now has an even tougher task this week to defeat a Yamagata side while being shorthanded one of his best players.

The last time FC Ryukyu achieved any sort of positive result against Yamagata at home was back in 2019 when both sides drew 3-3 in which Ryukyu required two (2) late goals to level the match. The last time we took a point off of Yamagata was in 2021 when yet another Shinya Uehara goal late in the game earned Ryukyu a point. For the most part, Ryukyu seems to somehow come apart against Yamagata by conceding two (2) or more goals in the past six (6) games against Yamagata with four (4) of those games reaching three (3) and four (4) marks. If Ryukyu historically play Nagasaki strong each season, it is the complete opposite case for Yamagata.

If Ryukyu wish to garner any points from this match then they will have to come up with a different game plan that doesn’t include bombing in crosses to Sulley. In his absence it is likely we see Noda return to the starting lineup but I am not sure who will be in reserve at striker for Ryukyu. Hitomi may move back to the bench but that would mean starting one of either Tanaka or any injured player who hasn’t featured for Ryukyu in some time. If recent signing Kohei Kato is prepared to play a full 90 then we could see a return to the right side for Ren Ikeda. Conversely, Kelvin could start there. I think Nacho has plenty of options at his disposal, pending any new CV-19 cases, but we are not trying to cobble together a patch work lineup, but one that can compete, and defeat, Yamagata.

One area that needs addressing this week is the defense. Ryukyu have conceded three (3) Penalty Kicks in two (2) games. That shit needs to stop now! Makito’s may have been an example of a brain fart; Nakagawa’s as a but harsh on the part of the ref; but Okazaki’s foul late in the game is inexcusable. Sure, that foul probably started outside the box but it ended inside the box while nursing a crucial 1-goal lead. Tired legs, desire to show the manager you belong may have all contributed to that foul but the mental presence of knowing what is going on that late games was not a consideration. If you’re set on fouling the player, do it earlier. I guess the gamble this week is whether to roll the dice on Omori and Nakagawa or some combination of them and Okazaki.

We’ve seen Ryukyu earn points while playing with limited possession and passing the past seven (7) weeks so I am not sure that will somehow change this week. They’ve been getting better at controlling more of the game but that is probably a byproduct of being down multiple goals with the opposition ceding possession in favor of defending those leads. If Ryukyu are going to do it this week then they’ll need those horses that have the ability to defend for long stretches of time and then quickly strike on the counter attack with as few passes as possible.

For me that is the same set of players we saw last week with a few minor tweaks. Kelvin is going to be crucial in this game along side Abe. Kelvin has to be one of the major contributors to any Ryukyu breakout in attack and somehow, someway, we have to find Abe in space so he is not out there to just execute hold up play. Nakano will surely get his opportunities but we’ll need some clinical finishing, or at the very least, some dangerous shots that lead to rebounds with Ryukyu players waiting in the area. We cannot afford to have soft shots or ones that flash just wide that don’t provide a chance of scoring from spilled balls.

Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata sit just two (2) points outside of the promotion zone with a very favorable set of fixtures the next three (3) weeks. They will travel to bottom side Ryukyu this week, then onto (19) Omiya Ardija and then finally returning home to face (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka. If Yamagata is going to make a push back into the promotion zone it has to happen these next three weeks.

The last time these two teams met was Match Day 20 when Yamagata completely dismantled Ryukyu in a 4-0 home victory. However, since that Ryukyu win – which was just one (1) game removed from a ten (10) game unbeaten run for Montedio – Yamagata has suffered some losses to teams near the bottom of the table. In the ten (10) games after the half way point of the season, Yamagata has already matched their loss total, four (4), in just ten (10) games compared to the four (4) they lost in their opening twenty one (21) fixtures.

A couple of those losses were to Tochigi and Gunma in which Yamagata was shut out. The Gunma loss is Yamagata’s most recent loss in a stretch of five (5) games where they’ve gone 4W-0D-1L with only two (2) goals surrendered. After Yamagata lost at home to Kumamoto on Match Day 26, they rebounded nicely at Akita with a 2-0 win; fell victim to Gunma at home 0-1; and then reeled off three (3) straight wins over Zelvia, Yamaguchi and Kanazawa. Perhaps Yamagata has a bit of bad luck at dropping points in games where they are favored to go along with a bit of good luck at playing sides when they are dealing with multiple injuries/suspensions and are in bad form? Luckily for them they get a Ryukyu a side this week who will be without one of their top players, Sadam Sulley, who is currently serving a one (1) match suspension for his red card last week.

Round 32 in J2

Up Top: There are two pretty big matchups at the top of the table this week. First, (1) Yokohama FC, fresh off their first win in two (2) games, host (4) Fagiano Okayama who are undefeated in their last seven (7) games. Second, (2) Albirex Niigata welcome in the high flying road team of J2, (5) Roasso Kumamoto.

Promotion Playoff Zone: (3) Vegalta Sendai head to (21) Thespakusatsu Gunma who just lost this past Tuesday to Yokohama FC. You know how I want this match to turn out. (6) V-Varen Nagasaki are also on the road against struggling (17) Zweigen Kanazawa.

Down Below: (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka, winless in their last two games, travel to (9) Oita Trinita who themselves are on a nine (9) game undefeated streak. (19) Omiya Ardija, on a bit of a heater themselves having only lost once in their past six (6), host (7) FC Machida Zelvia who have somehow lost four (4) times since that 1-0 win over Ryukyu two months ago. Winless in their last seven (7) games and sliding closer to the drop zone, (18) Renofa Yamaguchi play at home to (13) FC Mito Hollyhock. Mito are undefeated in their last five (5) games but had two (2) games postponed due to CV-19 and weather and have only played four (4) games since July 10th.

This match will also be broadcast for free on the J-League International YouTube channel as the first of two free broadcasts this round. Click>>> Renofa Yamaguchi v FC Mito Hollyhock

The second free broadcast this week will feature (11) Tokyo Verdy vs (12) Ventforet Kofu in a mid-table clash on Sunday evening. Click>>> Tokyo Verdy v Ventforet Kofu

Conclusion

Everything is impossible until it isn’t. Ryukyu have never beaten Montedio Yamagata but this isn’t the same Ryukyu squad from seasons past, or, the one that was flattened 4-0 earlier this season. This Ryukyu squad has surprised us several times in recent weeks, why not one more? Come on boys!

V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu pulled off an improbable 3-2 win over V-Varen Nagasaki on Saturday night in which they erased Nagasaki’s two (2) goal lead and even stopped a Nagasaki PK at the end of the match. In the preview article for this game I mentioned how Nagasaki seemed like a side that starts fast and fades throughout the match. That was the exact case this game as Nagasaki stormed out to a 2-0 lead before halftime despite not having their top man, Edigar Junio, in the lineup.

Ryukyu leveled the match at the 68′ minute mark of the second half thanks to two (2) goals by Takuya Hitomi inside a span of ten (10) minutes. Hitomi’s first was a redirection of a shot in which he was sitting almost on the goal line with two (2) Nagasaki defenders inside the goal keeping Hitomi on side. His second was a thing of beauty where he put a pass from Abe directly into the top right corner. Then Sadam Sulley added his third goal in as many games with another header in the 89th minute. But Ryukyu were not able to just walk away from this one without committing a costly foul near the end. But once again, Dany Carvajal rose to the occasion to help Ryukyu see out the win.

Match Highlights

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Play hard to the whistle. Likelihood 4. Not sure I need to say anything more as the actions of the entire team speak for themselves on this particular key to victory.

Match Day 31 Takeaways

1. Lineup and Roster selection for FC Ryukyu. I wondered what Nacho would do with both Kelvin and Makito this week following the Kofu game. Both players ended up getting the start and I think Makito’s early removal last week provided some motivation for him this week as he looked much better. Kelvin was his usual self and now we need to get that man on the score sheet more often, especially next week with Sulley suspended and it still being unknown when Kusano and Kiyotake will return to the lineup following their injury rehabilitations.

Abe and Sulley seem to have formed the perfect strike partnership for this league. Abe is so good at finding outlets to open Ryukyu players and just keeping plays alive for Ryukyu in the attack. The second Hitomi goal is a perfect example of what I am talking about and more goals for Abe should come soon. Sulley is really good at finding space behind, in, or around the oppositions’ defense to put him in goal scoring opportunities. Three (3) goals in three (3) consecutive weeks, four (4) points from four (4) matches. Though he’ll have to take a breather this week while on suspension from his red card last week.

2. A tale of two halves. My worst fears came to fruition after Nagasaki scored the opener and with Ryukyu again falling behind by multiple goals for the second straight week. Ryukyu seemed a bit flat in the first half with the opening Nagasaki goal traveling all the way through the box and past several Ryukyu defenders. To be fair, Sawada’s take was excellent as it had to be inch perfect from that angle.

Ryukyu had a crack at leveling the match early on but Kelvin’s take was just narrowly wide of the mark. You kind of felt that since we didn’t score from that take that another Nagasaki goal was likely in the offering. And true to form, Ryukyu surrendered the second goal that stemmed from a failed defensive clearance, followed by some really nice one-touch passing, before Cristiano buried the goal. Maybe Dany was blinded by Okazaki running in front of him but there were several Ryukyu defenders in the area that had a shot at getting something on the Cristiano shot.

You wouldn’t be wrong in assuming a goal scored just before halftime would completely let the wind out of the Ryukyu sails. But not under the current manager. Ryukyu came out firing in the second half when Hitomi scored on a redirected shot from Omoto. His first ever goal for Ryukyu. The play started with a Makito cross that Sulley won, though didn’t get on net, followed by Abe getting it back to Omoto whose shot looked to be headed for the far post to which Hitomi calmly slotted past the two Nagasaki defenders on the line.

Abe and Hitomi were not finished though as Hitomi’s second came after Abe’s initial shot was blocked, and instead of just trying to recycle the rebound back on net, Abe picked out the on-rushing Hitomi who sent a really nice ball into the top right corner. Of course the winner came from another Sulley header in a little give and go action from a quick counter attack. I truly believe Nacho and the rest of Ryukyu have figured out the J2: Pick out your taller strikers in the box with accurate crosses and let them feast.

The game wasn’t done and dusted at that point as Dany Carvajal was called into action a couple of times to make some key saves before the all important PK stop. His second stop of a PK this year that has directly accounted for four (4) Ryukyu points. I do have to say it wasn’t one of the better defensive performances from this team as it was more reminiscent of what we saw out of our defending at Kofu last week. We may have just got a bit lucky that Nagasaki couldn’t put anymore sustained pressure on our backline without their talisman Junio, but Ryukyu did enough to get the job done and that is all that matters.

Round 31 in J2

It wasn’t CV-19 rearing its ugly head to wipe out matches across the J-League this week, instead it was a tropical storm that dumped large amounts of rain across the mainland forcing matches to be called off and rescheduled for a later date.

Up Top: (2) Yokohama FC and (21) Thespakusatsu Gunma was rescheduled to this Tuesday evening leaving Ryukyu fans to wait and see if they have finally stayed level on points with Gunma. (1) Albirex Niigata took advantage of the YFC delay in fixtures to move into the top slot following their 2-0 road win at (16) Tochigi SC. And then there was (20) Omiya Ardija scoring another three (3) goals in a match to defeat a top seeded team in (3) Vegalta Sendai. Two (2) goals just a minute apart followed by a third in the first half put that one out of reach early.

Promotion Playoff Zone: (4) Fagiano Okayama was able to restore the 2-0 lead they lost to (18) Renofa Yamaguchi thanks to a 65th minute goal. (5) Roasso Kumamoto leap frogged V-Varen Nagasaki thanks to their 2-2 draw on the road at (13) Ventforet Kofu. Kumamoto missed out on all three (3) points this match having lost their 2-1 advantage in the 77th minute as well as having a PK stopped earlier in the game.

Down Below: The only team in the bottom five (5) of the table that wasn’t mentioned in the other two sections was (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka who lost 0-1 at home to (15) Blaublitz Akita. I think it was just around the time I released the first drop zone report that I intimated that Akita could easily, and quickly, remove themselves from the relegation discussion and since then they’ve won two (2), drawn two (2), only allowed a single (1) goal in four games with three (3) consecutive shutouts while playing as the visitors. Well done!

Conclusion

What an absolute roller-coaster ride of emotions on Saturday night for all the fans watching this game. From my vantage point there was the absolute shock, and subsequent outburst of emotion following that Sulley goal. It felt so good to see us score so late in a game instead of conceding. The emotional high was briefly muted when Nagasaki lined up for the PK where we all thought, “please not again,” before yet another outpouring of raw emotions by all in attendance at my house. We have waited a long time to see Ryukyu play like this as well for us to feel this good following any game. Let’s keep the good times rolling.