21 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu travel to Machida Zelvia on Wednesday for their first of four midweek fixtures in 2021. FC Ryukyu have failed to beat Zelvia in their last eight meetings managing only 1 win and 2 draws in the 10 games these teams have played since entering the J3 back in 2014. The next big test for Ryukyu will be finding the right mix of squad rotation and defeating an opponent who has always had your number.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Match Day 8 Highlights
Team Previews
- FC Machida Zelvia
- FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 9 in J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from the Club

A very pleasant evening to watch football.

It looks like visiting FC Ryukyu fans will be able to attend. Please not that there is no advance entry to hand banners.

Match Day Information from Machida Zelvia

2. Match Day 8 Highlights

V-Varen Nagasaki 0-3 FC Machida Zelvia

FC Ryukyu 2-0 Tokyo Verdy

3. Team Previews

FC Machida Zelvia: Zelvia have failed to win any of their home games this season and to be quiet honest, look a far better side when playing on the road compared to playing at home. Prior to the match at Nagasaki this weekend, Zelvia had only managed 1 goal in their previous four games. Zelvia seem to yo-yo between strong performances and very tepid ones. Many people viewed Zelvia as this seasons dark horse with the caveat that it would be their defending that lets them down. Unfortunately for Zelvia, they have been without the strike duo of Chong Tese and Dudu as Tese has picked up an injury that will see him miss at least 4 weeks with Dudu just completing his 14 day quarantine at the J-League bubble. I am not sure how quickly he will be incorporated into the squad but it seems likely that Dudu will get some playing time this Wednesday if he is fit.

Over their last five games Mito have won two matches while losing the other three. As mentioned earlier, the wins came on the road at Kofu and Nagasaki with losses occurring to Mito Hollyhock, Kanazawa and Kyoto Sanga. Mito found themselves in an early hole at Mito when two wind aided balls ended up allowing the hosts to jump out to a 2-0 lead by halftime. The final goal of that game was after a Zelvia turnover sprung Nakayama in the counterattack to which he finished superbly. At Kofu Zelvia looked much better and scored the games only goal in the third minute. Zelvia had control for most of this game with Kofu offering only about 20 minutes of any action in the Zelvia end.

Following that strong performance Zelvia looked dominant against Kanazawa but were unable to find the back of the net. All those missed chances ended up costing Zelvia as they were done in by an own goal in the 89th minute and went on to lose 1-0. The Zelvia defense had their hands full against Kyoto but still allowed Zelvia to stay in the game after they surrendered the lone goal of the match in the first half. Then, everything seemed to change at Nagasaki this week.

Ranko Popovic switched back to a 4-4-2 from the previous weeks 4-4-1-1 and Zelvia got off to a fast start once more. Two goals by Kaina Yoshio pushed Zelvia out front before a Hasegawa goal just two minutes after the second Yoshio goal put the match out of reach for Nagasaki. Once more Zelvia looked a different side when leaving the friendly confines of the Machida GION stadium, and though the offense went missing for a long stretch for Zelvia, they were able to breakout in a big way this weekend. Adding a good attacking player like Dudu into the mix is sure to help. But Zelvia, like Ryukyu, rely on some older veterans to prop the team up and they too will have to contend with some squad rotation this week.

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu own a rather poor record against Machida Zelvia having won only once in their past ten matches, and that win came all the way back in 2014 during FC Ryukyu’s inaugural season in the J3. In the six games where Ryukyu have traveled to Machida, they’ve been outscored 11-4. Last season, Ryukyu lost the opening fixture 4-2 thanks to four first half goals by Zelvia. The score line was only brought close by a Zelvia own goal and late strike by Takuma Abe after the game was well out of hand. During the curtain closer for the 2020 season Ryukyu were defeated 1-0 at home by Zelvia in a very uninspiring performance.

But, this is a season unlike any other with Ryukyu putting to rest many of the ghosts that have haunted them from past seasons. The strength of this club is their defense as the offense has yet to get on track this year. That is not to say they are struggling for goals as everyone is chipping in these days, it’s just not at the level we’ve come to expect from a club predicated on attacking football. Abe has done so well this year in all facets of the game and it would be great to see him back on the score sheet after a slight absence these past three weeks.

I think Ryukyu have benefited greatly from a more relaxed schedule this year compared to last season and it has allowed many of the veterans the recovery time between matches that they sorely missed in 2020. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how Higuchi conducts the squad rotation with three games inside of eight days. I wouldn’t expect many changes, but utilizing substitutes earlier and possibly giving a run out to Motegi, Makito Uehara, Shinya Uehara and Akamine needs to be done to keep the squad fresh.

These next two fixtures are massive for Ryukyu if they wish to keep the field at bay. Their current lead over third placed Kyoto Sanga FC is just six points and Kyoto are starting to generate some serious momentum. Defeating an opponent that you have a historically poor track record against is the next step that the Ryukyu needs to make on their way to 80 points.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Short passes in the Zelvia box. Likelihood 2. Zelvia are not the most impressive defensive unit in the league and a single goal maybe all that is needed for Ryukyu to see out a win on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean they can take this opponent lightly as Zelvia have bested Ryukyu nearly every single time. Zelvia have conceded from crosses this season, but are far more susceptible to the short passes in and around the box. Ryukyu will need a strong performance out of Ren Ikeda and Takuma Abe as they can wreak havoc on the Zelvia back line with penetrating runs and quick changes in direction when in the oppositions box.

2. Play to your strengths. Likelihood 4. A short week on the road could mean a low scoring affair, a situation that Ryukyu are very comfortable in, and another defensive masterclass by the CB pairing of Chinen and Okazaki, along with Taguchi in net, is exactly what Ryukyu need this match. Zelvia’s offense wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders this year, but it is starting to generate some thrust. Blunting the Zelvia assault will allow FC Ryukyu to continue to play the style of football they’ve become accustomed to this season.

3. Finding the right mix in the squad rotation. Likelihood 2. Higuchi may not make any changes to this side for this match but that could have an effect later on this week when Ryukyu return home to face Kofu. Ryukyu currently roster four forwards each match so allowing Akamine to start this week may not be a bad idea. Yu and Koki Kazama seem to rotate fairly regularly and hopefully Ichimaru can spell Uesato for longer stretches over these next two games. We should not tinker with the current CB pair but Yong Jick coming in for either of the central defenders so as to keep them fresh is the smart move. Makito Uehara could provide some relief to Tanaka but it will be interesting to see how Higuchi addresses the left back position. Numata will almost certainly need a break these next few games and that means it comes down to either Fukui or Reo Yamashita, who looked good in his lone appearance in the J-Elite League last month.

5. Prediction

Zelvia have been shut out three times this year while Ryukyu have five clean sheets. Zelvia have hit the three goal plateau twice this season compared to FC Ryukyu’s one. Any changes to the Ryukyu squad might have some consequences, and though it is a bold move to predict a win for FC Ryukyu, who haven’t defeated Zelvia in well over seven seasons, that is what I am going to do. 2-1 win for Ryukyu in the midweek. Season Record 5-1-2.

6. Match Day 8 in J2

(1) Albirex Niigata will look to retain the top spot for another week when they travel to (10) Tochigi SC who are currently on an unbeaten run of 5 games. (3) Kyoto Sanga FC and (4) Jubilo Iwata will continue to chip away at the leaders with favorable matchups at (11) Tokyo Verdy and home to (15) Omiya Ardija respectively. Other interesting matches this round include (5) Zweigen Kanazawa hosting (8) Blaublitz Akita and the resurgent (22) Ehime FC hosting (16) Renofa Yamaguchi FC. It’s not quite time to push the panic button for (12) V-Varen Nagasaki, but another performance like this past weekend will at least warrant removing the safety cover for the panic button.

It is FC Ryukyu’s turn to appear on the free J-league International YouTube broadcast so please tune in and enjoy from around the world. Or at the very least, use a VPN if you live in Japan and you do not have a DAZN account. Click the link below the infographic to get the YouTube page for the match.

Click>>> LIVE | FC Machida Zelvia vs FC Ryukyu | Matchweek 9 | 2021 | J2 LEAGUE – YouTube

7. Conclusion

Well strap yourselves in for this one as FC Ryukyu will need to exorcise some serious demons to retain one of the two promotion slots in J2. It has been nothing but disappoint for Ryukyu when they play Zelvia so it will be really encouraging to see them net any points away from home on a short week. A win would show that this team has really turned aa corner in their development and provide a massive boost to the overall morale of the team.

Match Day 42 Report: (16) FC Ryukyu vs (19) FC Machida Zelvia 12/20/20 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu closed the books on the 2020 season with a 0-1 defeat to FC Machida Zelvia. The game itself was very uneventful, as you will be able to tell from the second half highlights. It was also unfortunate that Shinji Ono did not score his first goal for the club.

Match Highlights

Match Day Takeaways

1. FC Ryukyu were wildly off target with their shots yesterday. In fact, they only had two shots on goal all day. That is an awfully low number for this team considering their recent form. The closest FC Ryukyu came to scoring yesterday was a Tanaka shot that hit the post, and header that Koizumi couldn’t quite get down. All of them occurred in the first half as there was almost zero offense for Ryukyu in the second half.

2. Shinya Uehara made a return to the lineup. It was good to see the veteran return to the pitch but he wasn’t able to muster the super-sub performances we’ve seen throughout the year.

Match Day 42 in J2

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/startseite/wettbewerb/JAP2

Both Giravanz and Tochigi lost so there was no upward movement for these clubs on the last day. Avispa achieved the moral victory be defeating the champs at home, but all the glory goes to Tokushima Vortis.

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/tabelle/wettbewerb/JAP2/saison_id/2019

Conclusion

Well that is it for 2020. There will be some news of player contract renewals, and cancellations, over the next few weeks for FC Ryukyu so I intend to do a season wrap up for the players before I do one for the team as a whole. Thanks for reading the weekly previews and reviews and I look forward to seeing you in just a few short months for the 2021 season.

“The Place I Belong” Match Day 42 Preview: (14) FC Ryukyu vs (19) FC Machida Zelvia 12/20/20 #FC琉球

“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”

Intro

The final game of 2020 is upon us. It took 301 days from February 23rd to reach this point, but we’ve made it. This season has been unlike any other in history with the 4 month pause in play, COVID-19 protocols and suspensions, rescheduled games, games without fans, and the number of mid-week matches every team had to play to complete the fixture list. FC Ryukyu will close out their season this Sunday afternoon against FC Machida Zelvia, a team they share a long history with dating back to their time in the JFL, the J3, and now the J2.

Match Day 17: FC Machida Zelvia 4-2 FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu were demolished 4-2 by FC Machida Zelvia the last time they met back in September. Zelvia stormed out of the gates with 4 first half goals before FC Ryukyu answered with an own goal, followed by their first actual goal in the 92′ minute. Ryukyu had no answer for Zelvia on a day when Kazumasa Uesato was asked to fill in at CB due to several injuries and CV-19 suspensions. Well, we are healthier at the back this time, and FC Ryukyu are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment.

Previous Match Highlights

FC Ryukyu 2-0 Mito Hollyhock

FC Machida Zelvia 2-3 Jubilo Iwata

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Higuchi definitely wants to end the season with a win, which, would also extend the FC Ryukyu winning streak to three games in a row. FC Ryukyu have beaten Ehime FC and Mito Hollyhock by a score line of 8 goals scored, 0 goals conceded over their last 2 games and are surging at the moment. It is highly unlikely that we see the return of our leading scorer, Abe, or the inclusion of Makito Uehara in the lineup, but we will certainly see the curtain call for Shinji Ono in this game.

I would expect a very fast start for FC Ryukyu on Sunday as they will want to put themselves into a position to allow Shinji Ono the maximum amount of time to score his first goal for the club. Ideally, Ryukyu would like to have a two goal lead prior to the 60th minute to give Shinji at least 30 minutes, and several chances, to score in front of the home crowd.

We probably won’t see to much shake up to the FC Ryukyu lineup that has featured the last two games. There will be some combination of Yong Jick, Chinen, and Okazaki at CB; Numata and Tanaka in defense, with Tavares coming on later for Tanaka. In the CDM, we should see the return of Uesato to the captains role, and joining him should be Koki Kazama, who, is having some strong performances to close out the season.

The attacking four up front should be Kawai, Koizumi, Koya and Ikeda. Though we’d like to see how Hitomi would function with a strong supporting cast, the need to get out in front early may prevent Hitomi from starting. This brings us to the most tenuous position selection of recent weeks, goal keeper.

Dany Carvajal and Junto Taguchi have a 28/13 split for games started this year. In their last 5 starts; Dany has two wins, and three losses; while Taguchi has three wins, one draw, and one loss. When you peer into the numbers, Dany surrendered 6 goals in that span, but the team only scored 5 goals in his starts. Taguchi on the other hand, has surrendered 4 goals during a 13 goal outburst from Ryukyu. Taguchi has faced: Jubilo Iwata, Tokyo Verdy, Fagiano Okayama, Ehime FC, and Mito Hollyhock. While Dany has faced: Omiya Ardija, Ventforet Kofu, Renofa Yamaguchi, Avispa Fukuoka, and Zweigen Kanazawa. So the strength of opponents is definitely in favor of Taguchi

Both goalies have 5 shutouts this season with Dany averaging 1.57 goals against, and Taguchi at 1.36. Here is where it gets slightly interesting. In Dany’s starts, the team scores an average of 1.36 goals per game. For Taguchi, that number is 1.54. In Dany’s 28 starts, FC Ryukyu have been shut out 8 times. In Taguchi’s 13 starts, only 3 times. In fact, in games Taguchi started, the team has scored nearly half (20) of the goals they scored when Dany (38) started this season. I think luck plays a part when evaluating these two players as FC Ryukyu have faired far better offensively with Taguchi than Dany. Taguchi played well against Mito, but the schedule and results are weighted heavily in his favor.

Machida Zelvia: It must be tough to be an FC Machida Zelvia fan these days. In three of their past five games, they have surrendered three goals, and lost two games because of those leaks at the back.

Zelvia went 2-0-3 over their last five games. They started off with two straight defeats to Thespakusatsu Gunma and Montedio Yamagata, which represented two of the three games where Zelvia conceded at least three goals. Wild shooting, poor defending, and an a PK contributed to the Gunma loss. But against Yamagata, they started fast, took the lead twice, and then surrendered that lead in the 92′ and 94′ minute.

Machida followed up those two losses with consecutive 1-0 victories against Tokyo Verdy and Mito Hollyhock. The Verdy win came after a PK, and the Mito win was not all that inspiring so it was hard to draw anything from those games other than Zelvia responding to two heavy defeats.

The most recent game against Jubilo Iwata was a mirror image of the Yamagata game in that Zelvia would once again surrender a lead, and would do so in stoppage time. Machida at one point were up 2-0 before a 70′ goal provided the breakthrough for Iwata before a short corner with less than one minute left gave Iwata the victory.

For the season, Zelvia have been shut out 16 times, compared to 11 by FC Ryukyu. But unlike Ryukyu, Zelvia have only exceeded more than two goals scored in a game three times. One of those was against FC Ryukyu so there is that. Machida have also surrendered 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 6 games, as well as 8 games in total this season, which is good for about 20% of the time. Zelvia’s away record is not that great either as they have only won 4 games on the road all year, with the last win occurring back on Match Day 16 some three and half months ago.

The players to watch for tomorrow are also the top three scorers for Zelvia. Hirato, Ando, and Yoshio have all looked good in the last five games for Zelvia and represent the lion’s share of the team’s offense. Keeping them in check, something FC Ryukyu didn’t do the last time they played Zelvia, will be no easy task.

For more on FC Machida Zelvia, please see @fortressnuzama on Twitter.

Keys to ~~Victory for FC Ryukyu~~ Shinji Ono Scoring His First Goal

I have no idea if this will be Shinji Ono’s last game for FC Ryukyu, or maybe ever, but we have to understand that the end is drawing near for this great player. There has been no bigger ambassador for the club, and what Shinji has done here in Okinawa to increase the exposure of FC Ryukyu, has been nothing short of remarkable. But there is something missing, something that can be replayed over, and over, and over again for news outlets and fans everywhere. And that is a goal.

If this truly is Shinji’s last game, then like all greats who exit the sport on their last game, there is the emotional pregame speech he will deliver to the team. In that speech he will thank the players, the staff, the coaches and applaud their efforts throughout his time at the club. He will tell some stories about his footballing life, and then make an impassioned plea to go out there and win one last time. I think, after hearing that speech, that every single player in that locker room will bust their gut to get the win, but more importantly, to get Shinji on the score sheet.

1. The lineup selection must be built to start fast, and finish stronger. Ren Ikeda will need to make the start at FWD, with Koizumi sitting behind him in the CAM. This combination, along with Koya and Kawai, can generate the lead we need – in a winning effort – to bring on Shinji. Make no mistake, a goal by Shinji in a losing effort will not be as memorable as one in which Ryukyu win. When it is time to make the substitutions, they need to be measured against the talent that can support Shinji. Koizumi needs to drop back behind Shinji and allow Ono to operate at the top of the box as the CAM. Hitomi is better at FWD than Ikeda as he knows where to be to support the attack by getting into the right positions so this will help as well. Kawai and Koya should only be subbed off if they are gassed, and in that event, Yamaguchi should come in on the left with his speed; while Tavares comes in for Koya; drops back to RB; and pushes Tanaka up top as he possesses a better touch in the attack.

2. Stretch Zelvia along the flanks and find the last pass back to Shinji. Koya and Tanaka have the best accuracy for picking out players. And Kawai can pull the defense apart with his speed, with Numata looking good on crosses these days. Koizumi can pick out anyone, with every type of pass, from anywhere on the pitch which means we should have to supporting cast to get Shinji open.

3. Feed him. Shinji cannot score if he is not given the chances. Don’t be dismayed by the shots he takes that are off target, or directly at the defense, as he needs to get a feel for the game and his shooting touch. He may have no more than 30 minutes to do this, so expect shots from every angle and distance imaginable.

Match Prediction

If FC Ryukyu can win this game by more than 2 goals, they will finish with a positive goal differential for the first time in 2 years, as well as for the first time in J2. In that case, 3-1 to FC Ryukyu with the third and final goal coming from Mr. Ono sounds oh so good.

Match Day 42 in J2

All the fixtures will kickoff at 1400 JST which is the norm for the final match day. The two promoted teams will square off with Tokushima expected to lift the J2 Champions Shield. That is, barring a miraculous turn of events requiring Avispa Fukuoka to overturn a 14 goal differential with a victory by 8 goals. Letting your opponent lift the title at your home ground should be enough motivation for Avispa to make this a game.

Tune in for the lifting of the J2 Champions Shield: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHSZRWLeXEs

Elsewhere, there will be some jockeying for final positions inside the table. Most notably are the games featuring (5) Giravanz Kitakyushu and (9) Tochigi SC. If other results go in favor of these two teams, we could see both finish inside the top 6, with Giravanz possibly finishing 4th. Quite an impressive set of results for a newly promoted side, and a team that finished 20th in the table last year. But then again, one just has to recall Avispa Fukuoka’s meteoric rise from 16th in 2019 to 2nd in 2020.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDriek2a1vg

Conclusion

Country roads take me home, to the place I belong.

Okinawa!

FC RYUKYU!!

Take me home!!!

“Something has to Give! (?)” Match Day 34 Preview: Machida Zelvia vs FC Ryukyu 9/29/2019

Intro

Something has to give. Literally. These two teams each bring an interesting dynamic/aspect to this match. Zelvia have only amassed 2 wins at home all season while FC Ryukyu have only won once on the road. If ever there was a match that FC Ryukyu could break this ridiculous streak, you’d figure this could be the one. But hold on folks, teams target FC Ryukyu match-ups as wins whenever they visit and they have every right too. I am sure the Machida faithful are targeting this game as one in which they can break their unlucky streak of not having won at home since match day 6, which is about 6 calendar months ago. This is definitely not your typical “immovable object against an unstoppable force” scenario as neither of these sides are a juggernaut in any one area of the game but hopefully it is FC Ryukyu that snaps their unfortunate streak while pushing themselves slightly higher in the table at the expense of Machida Zelvia.

Weather Forecast

Mostly cloudy with 25% chance of rain and slight breeze. Comfortable.

Machida Zelvia

Zelvia’s unfortunate situation at home this season is their problem and not FC Ryukyu’s. Zelvia have either failed to score against their opponent at home, or have lost the lead later in matches 12 out of 16 times this season (75%). In fact, they’ve only come back twice to earn a favorable result (draw) at home. FC Ryukyu displayed a “never give up” attitude versus Yamagata and if Zelvia switch off for any bit of time tomorrow then FC Ryukyu will make them pay for that transgression.

Machida’s last 5 results are: 3-0 win against Okayama on the road, 1-1 draws at home to JEF Chiba UTD and Omiya followed by an 0-2 loss to Kyoto away from home and a 0-0 draw with Yokohama at home. It is hard to make heads or tails of this team when you see those results. On one hand, they’ve achieved some nice results against sides above them in the table. On the other, they’ve failed to score the past few weeks and do not present a massive challenge to any opponent.

Prior to the Okayama win, Zelvia didn’t win for roughly 2 months. A streak that many FC Ryukyu fans can relate to. However, FC Ryukyu were at least scoring goals in their defeats. Zelvia have been shutout in 14 of their 33 games this season compared to that of FC Ryukyu who’ve only been blanked 6 times. You know, as I am writing this, I recall that Yamagata had inverse numbers compared to FC Ryukyu and that game ended very differently than I thought it would, perhaps I should stop here and move on.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu have emerged from a rough stretch of games that saw them only win 1 out of 9 games but now they have gone 3 games in a row with out a loss. A feat they haven’t been able to repeat since that remarkable run of games to begin the season. FC Ryukyu are 8 points clear of the drop zone and a win tomorrow, plus a loss by Tochigi to Ehime, would put Ryukyu 11 points clear with 8 games remaining. Meaning they would only need to see out 4 more matches at the current point total to guarantee safety.

I have harped on safety and staying in J2 all season and for some of you this may seem very pessimistic. I can understand, but the first year of any promoted team must always be about survival. Especially when you are a small club with limited resources. To FC Ryukyu’s credit, they have been able to scout, employ and sell some very talented players to their advantage the past few years. Hopefully they will become a “buyer” of talent compared to a “seller” in the future but for now, its Zelvia and Match Day 34. FC Ryukyu have a chance to send an opponent, who is near drowning, further down to the bottom of the table while simultaneously saving themselves and securing their survival.

That analogy may come across as brutal or harsh but it is simply reality. We fight for survival every day and the sport of football is no different. 3 points away from home would be massive and can be achieved with some quality play. Shinji is starting to come into his own back there and our attack looks so much more lethal than it has the past 5 months, give or take. Our defense has been our weakest link all season and there is no indications that will change for this match which means it is so important that our attack finish off drives with goals that can provide some breathing space to our back line and GK, whoever that is this weekend.

Player Injuries/Suspensions

Machida Zelvia: Not sure as the site I usually utilize is blocked while I am writing this entry from the Marriott resort here in Okinawa. Oh well, wouldn’t matter much anyways.

FC Ryukyu: The side should see the return of #20 Uesato at CDM after having served his 1 match ban for accumulating 5 yellow cards. The more concerning issue is that of GK Dany Carvajal and his health. He was absent from the Yamagata match and I hope for a speedy recovery and return to the FC Ryukyu lineup.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Play the exact same way against Zelvia as you did against Yamagata. Yamagata is a much more superior team than Zelvia but the road form factor has to be taken into account. With that said, demonstrate some poise, tact and tenacity like we did last week and a win is almost guaranteed.

2. Continue those penetrating runs by our attacking players coupled with the near precision passes emanating from the central midfield and/or wing backs. Yamada opened the scoring on one of these types of plays last week and FC Ryukyu nearly connected on 3 of these that could have led to more goals against Yamagata. Whatever has changed inside the club tactically has been for the better so continue to hammer these passes and good things will follow.

Match Prediction

A 2-1 FC Ryukyu loss is the likeliest of outcomes based on the form and statistics of both sides this season. But I am going the opposite direction and say that this game ends 1-1 with FC Ryukyu netting a late equalizer.

Conclusion

Though Zelvia have earned 14 of their 33 points this season at home compared to just 7 of 36 from FC Ryukyu on the road, this match presents a tremendous opportunity for FC Ryukyu to right the ship. This is one of 3, 6-point, swing matches facing FC Ryukyu over the next 4 weeks. We are in the crunch time period for teams to assert or save themselves with only 9 matches remaining and the points matter so much more now. I wish everyone safe travels who intend on traveling to see FC Ryukyu and leave you all with this sentiment.

It has been 183 days and 28 match days since Machida Zelvia last won at home. It has been 210 days and 32 match days since FC Ryukyu last won away from home. Something has to give (CHANGE!!).

How freaking awesome was this! Miss this dude. Sorry I cannot recall who showed me this on twitter or I’d give credit to them.

Match Day 11 Preview: FCR vs Machida Zelvia

Match Day 11 Info: 04/27/2019 (H) FCR vs Machida Zelvia (A) at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium (Comprehensive Park) Kickoff at 19:30.

Weather Forecast: Overcast with temperatures around 72 degrees Fahrenheit (22C) with 11 mph winds expected all game and only dropping down to 71 degrees (21.6C) by the end of the match. There is no rain in the forecast but I would double check the weather before leaving the house.

Match Day 11 sees FCR squaring off at home against old J3 rivals Machida Zelvia. You may recall that Zelvia gained promotion to the J2 after the 2015 season when they defeated Oita Trinita in a home and home series and were the first, and last, J3 team to achieve that feat. The J League has since done away with that format where now the bottom two from J2 and top 2 from J3 are automatically demoted/promoted (promotion still requires a J2 license).

FCR’s historical record against Zelvia is not great. They have only ever faced each other during the 2014 and 2015 seasons in the J3 with Zelvia holding the preponderance of victories at 5 to 1. In fact, Zelvia holds a 16-3 margin of goals scored compared to FCR during those years and I can vividly recall one of the hardest matches I’ve ever had to witness as an FCR fan here in Okinawa that came against Zelvia. It was during the 2014 season and Zelvia traveled to Okinawa City and lambasted FCR 7-1 on our home turf. One of those players responsible for a lot of that damage was Koji Suzuki who netted 19 goals and was the leading goal scorer in J3 that season. Well, all that has changed now as the teams are certainly different from 4 season ago and now it is FCR that has Koji “The Shredder” Suzuki up front leading the attack.

Machida Zelvia: 13^th in J2 with 13 points 4W1D5L Goal Difference of -6 Current Form WLDWL

Typical Formation: 4-4-2

Zelvia come into match day 11 having just lost at home to Omiya whereas FCR is also coming off of a loss to Kagoshima last weekend on the road. Zelvia has doubled their goal tally on the season over the past 5 matches bringing their season total to 7, while only conceding 3 during that span compared to their first 5 matches where they allowed 10 goals. Zelvia has begun to solidify themselves at the back beginning with match day 5 against Kagoshima and have turned around an ugly start to the season.

Zelvia have a much better goal scoring record on the road compared to at home but they have also conceded a majority of their goals on the road. Across the 5 road matches Zelvia has played this year they are conceding about 1.5 goals per match. While that sounds promising for the prospects of FCR netting some goals, there was one outlier where Zelvia conceded 6 against Kanazawa early in the season. They have only conceded 1 in their last 3 road matches and I fear that FCR will find a clogged mid field with little space to operate against the Zelvia defensive lines.

I did not see much in the 5 Zelvia games I was able to review on DAZN that leads me to believe FCR should fear the Zelvia attack. It is obvious that they miss a player of Suzuki’s quality up front but that is not to say they don’t have some creative players of their own. What it boils down to is creating chances for those players and this seems to be a weakness of Zelvia this year. During the last five matches, Machida was able to secure victories against Ehime at home, Fukuoka on the road with their lone draw this season occurring against Kofu at home. The losses included the previously mentioned one against Omiya at home and one against Nigata on the road.

It looked like in their most recent victory against Fukuoka that Zelvia may have turned things around with their attack but that wasn’t the case against Omiya the following week where they generated very little. They were done in by a late Utaka goal against Kofu that ultimately led to the draw when they had a momentary lapse in judgment when playing the ball out from the back that resulted in a giveaway to Kofu and the equalizer. Starting with that Kofu match, Zelvia began making some wholesale changes to their lineup to which they continued to tinker with the lineup against Fukuoka. There were no changes to the lineup against Omiya and it is likely, barring any injuries that Zelvia may have picked up against Omiya or during this past week of practice, that FCR will face that same lineup this Saturday, .

Zelvia Players to Watch:

#9 Caymen Togashi FW. Togashi is the leading goal scorer this season for Zelvia with 2. He scored early in the season against Verdy and most recently against Fukuoka.

#32 Hiroki Todaka MF. Todaka’s lone goal this season came against Kofu where he was able to control the ball from a cross with his legs and then take another touch to gain some shooting space from the defenders and deliver a nice strike. He seems to create the most opportunities for Zelvia in the attacking end and despite his diminutive stature, he is a handful to deal with from what I’ve seen on tape. He reminds me of Togashi with his playing style and FCR cannot afford to allow Todaka too much time and space in or around the 18-yard box.

#18 Yuki Okada FW. Has provided 2 assists this season but is very lethal with his passing and is someone who can set players like Togashi and Todaka free on net.

FCR 6^thin J2 with 16 points 4W4D2L Goal Difference of +4 Current Form DLDDL

Typical Formation 4-2-3-1

FCR is coming off a deflating road loss to Kagoshima especially since they had so many opportunities to score. The FCR attacks has slowed down mightily since the opening of the season where they were running roughshod over teams on their way to scoring 11 goals in their first 4 matches. FCR has only scored 5 goals in their last 6 matches while conceding 7 and it is obvious that more lineup changes are required to get the attack going again. FCR has had Uejo and Tomidokoro occupy the CAM role behind Suzuki but this has not proven to be effective after the Nakagawa transfer. For one thing, Uejo hasn’t been healthy enough to play a full 90 minutes since he injured his foot against Tokushima and it is baffling the way FCR is using Tomidokoro this year. Yu is lethal when coming in from the left side and unleashing his right foot. He is even in better on free kicks but FCR is selecting Uesato to take the long range FKs with Kazama taking the ones closer to the 18-yard box as we witnessed this past week. Tomidokoro needs to be taking more of these in order to regain the form we saw last season.

While FCR created many chances last week most of them were taken from support personnel and not our 4 attacking front men. Masutani had two golden opportunities but neither amounted to anything and Uesato took the very close FK in the Kagoshima box as a result of a back pass. If you go back to the Renofa match, you can see that FCR is requiring some very late goals to bring matches level. While this is great because it still has earned the squad some points, FCR needs to be getting out on the front foot and scoring first similar to the way they operated at the start of the season.

FCR Keys to Victory:

1.) FCR must overcome Zelvia’s 4-4-2 formation that will inevitably clog the mid-field area and make it difficult for FCR to create chances. As we’ve seen in FCR games this season when opponent’s pack the mid-field with players, FCR is really challenged to create opportunities. This started after we sold Nakagawa which means someone on the FCR squad needs to step up and take over that role. The best way to defeat the 4-4-2 is to make quick changes in direction across the pitch in order to create positional and numerical superiority against Zelvia. If done correctly, FCR should find some space to operate in, or at the very least, space to run into the channels created by dragging the 4-4-2 formation across the pitch in order to cover the mismatch.

2.) FCR needs to start fast, score early and score often. Zelvia has conceded a majority of their goals on the road this season whereas FCR has scored most of their goals at the Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium. Zelvia have a 2-1 ratio for conceding goals on the road compared to home and the same can be said about FCR’s goals scoring with a 10-5 split that is also a 2-1 advantage at home. Something has to give in this match and FCR needs to be flying all over the pitch by making runs to pull the Zelvia defense apart. Hopefully there is a little “revenge narrative” for Koji Suzuki since Zelvia is his former club and they let him go this past off season. If Koji does score, I doubt that he will celebrate too much since he has spent his entire career at the club up to this season notching 65 goals during that time.

3.) FCR needs to make some lineup changes. I am not sure if we will see the return of Nishioka this week or if Higuchi will try and change the personnel behind Suzuki in an attempt to start generating more forward thrust. This is a perfect opportunity to get a player like Koizumi some playing time and see what he can do in the CAM role. He flashed some nice skills during the draw against Verdy and nearly equalized himself before Uesato brought the game level for FCR. Higuchi could also opt to start Tanaka, as long as he is not injured, in that role to see if he can provide the service that Suzuki desperately requires. I also think FCR needs to be bringing Kawai off the bench later in games so his speed can be used to its full extent by running against the tired legs of the opposing teams defense. This would require a healthy Tanaka and Uejo but is something I hope FCR will explore over the next 2 matches.

Match Prediction: I am split between two reasonable outcomes for this match. I think that this game could see both teams score as evidenced by their track records this season or see out a scoreless draw. First, we know how FCR doesn’t keep many clean sheets and how Zelvia is susceptible to conceding goals on the road that could lead to a 2-1 FCR victory. Second, on the other hand, the solidifying of the Zelvia defense over the past few road games in conjunction with the slowing down of the FCR attack, means we could easily see a 0-0 draw on Saturday.

Against common opponents this season both teams have achieved the same amount of points with Zelvia going 4W3L against those opponents compared to FCR’s 3W3D1L. This basically boils down to these two sides being very similar despite the differences in their overall statistics.

This is an important match for FCR to get going again for two reasons. First, there is only a 4-point difference between FCR and the 14^th placed team in the J2 table. A loss on Saturday combined with some unfavorable results around the league could see FCR tumble further down the table. FCR needs to be earning 3 points at home against similar or inferior opponents to keep them out of the relegation scrap at the end of the season. Second, the schedule will get decidedly harder next month and FCR needs to get that elusive 5^th win this week. A win that has escaped us since match day 4. FCR shouldn’t care about the top of the table this year as there is no need to concern themselves with promotion as they do not currently have a J1 license. The bottom of the table is of the greatest concern to FCR and therefore their focus should be on doing all they can to avoid that location.

I look forward to seeing all of you out there on Saturday and hopefully seeing our boys achieve victory. I believe there is a ceremony scheduled for Koji Suzuki and how fitting it occurs when Zelvia is in town. Good luck!