Intro

FC Ryukyu have the opportunity to take the pole position in J2 this weekend with a win over Verdy and anything but a win from Albirex Niigata. The matches between Ryukyu and Verdy have been quite festive these past two seasons and I see no reason for that to change this weekend. But much like Omiya, who Ryukyu defeated and shutout last season, and then drew at home this year, Verdy were shutout by Ryukyu on both occasions last season. Is another draw in store for Ryukyu or can they continue their winning ways?

1. Weather Forecast & Match Info
2. Match Day 7 Recaps
3. Team Previews
   • FC Ryukyu
   • Tokyo Verdy
4. Keys to Victory
5. Prediction
6. Round 8 in J2
7. Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from the Club

Looks like it will be raining up to and through the first half. Just in time for the wind to pick up. Besides bringing those ponchos and bags to protect your valuables from the rain, you may want to consider a change of clothes, especially for the kids if their soaking wet as that wind could really get to them. Also, please remember to social distance at the gate, food vendors, seats and restrooms.

FC Ryukyu will allow visiting Verdy fans to attend this match as the tickets were already sold but they will not be allowing visiting fans into the stadium on Match Days 10 and 12 under what they are calling a “period of priority measures.”

Click>>> Match Day 8 Information from FC Ryukyu

2. Match Day 7 Recaps

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu own a 2-1-1 record against Verdy with the two wins occurring in 2020 when Ryukyu shut out Verdy twice. Who can forget that first win when Shinya Uehara was kicked in the gut by Shohei Takahashi late in the game leading to an Abe PK and ultimately a Ryukyu win. Then Ryukyu blew Verdy away 4-0 at home thanks to two first half goals by Yoshio Koizumi (sheds a tear). But in 2019 it was a different story altogether.

Ryukyu drew 1-1 in their first ever meeting thanks to Dany Carvajal stopping a PK after he bloodied his nose on the foul, and the spectacular finish by Uesato on the volley deep into stoppage time. The return leg was far less exciting, more like excruciating, when Verdy smashed Ryukyu 5-1 in Okinawa. Junki Koike bagged a hat-trick that game and Verdy, with possibly nothing to celebrate in years, commemorated the momentous occasion by making t-shirts in honor of the hat-trick. Perhaps 2020 was a bit of payback for FC Ryukyu.

Through Ryukyu’s first seven games they are averaging 11.5 shots, 6 of which are on target, and 49% possession. They’ve had two games where they only mustered 2 total shots on net, Iwata and Omiya, otherwise they have been pretty consistent around 8 shots on target per game. A vast majority of Ryukyu’s goals this year have come from crosses where Verdy has been anything but spectacular in defending those plays. What I like to see is that different players are getting on the score sheet and starting to gain some confidence. Kiyotake had his breakthrough last week, thanks to Keita setting him up perfectly, and Shimizu grabbed his second goal of the campaign. It has been a bit of a dry spell for Abe these past few rounds but all that could change on Saturday.

One thing that cannot afford to change is the defensive wall Ryukyu have been putting up this season. FC Ryukyu are the best defensive unit in the J2 (not a typo) having only conceded three goals. Chinen, Okazaki and Taguchi will likely be busy this weekend as Verdy are averaging 15 shots, 12 on net, over their last two games. While Ryukyu may not fear Verdy bombing in crosses they do need to be very cognizant of the short passes Verdy use in and around the box to create space and shooting lanes.

I wouldn’t necessarily say that bad blood exists between these two sides, though someone from Ryukyu every year seems to be involved in some sort of fracas, but these games are turning into a nice set of hotly contested matches. Ryukyu enter this game much like they did two weeks ago against Omiya where Ryukyu are coming off a nice road win while their opponent is coming to town on the back of some recent strong performances after a rough start to the season.

Tokyo Verdy: After a rocky start to their season, culminating with a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Albirex Niigata, Verdy has course corrected and pulled themselves out of the relegation zone with two consecutive home victories. When Verdy was setting up in a 4-3-1-2 formation they looked disorganized at the back and were providing ample turnovers for their opponents to capitalize on. But they switched from a 4-3-2-1 to a 4-1-4-1 this past round against Renofa and looked much more in control of the game than they have in quite some time.

In their last five games Verdy own a 2-1-2 record with a draw against Zelvia; consecutive losses to Kanazawa and Niigata; and then consecutive wins over Mito and Renofa. Verdy looked sluggish in defense against Machida Zelvia and allowed the hosts to jump out to a 2-0 lead until a PK brought Verdy back into the game followed by the equalizer when Junki Koike caught the Zelvia defense napping. This time it was Verdy’s turn to jump put to an early lead against Zweigen with a 4th minute goal by leading scorer Koike, but then the wheels came off for Verdy.

Zweigen went on to score 4 goals by exploiting Verdy turnovers and confusion before Verdy responded with a late goal when the game was well out of hand. If the wheels fell off against Kanazawa then the entire car exploded at Niigata with the aforementioned seven goal shellacking. All the problems from the Zweigen matched carried over into this one and Verdy looked more like a team that was thrown together at the last minute destined for a local derby at Y.S.C.C. than a J2 club.

Luckily Verdy’s schedule eased up when they returned home to host Mito and Renofa. Verdy again scored early in the Mito match, survived the Mito barrage in the first half after Mito equalized, before digging out the winner in the second half. Hideki Nagai made a decision to switch the formation against Renofa, and that almost looked like another disaster when Renofa nearly scored in the 4th minute before actually going in front of Verdy in the 11th minute. But Verdy responded with a goal of their own two minutes later and then another in the 24th minute. They capped off the day with Junki Koike’s 6th goal of the campaign to walk away 3-1 winners.

Despite the recent Verdy resurgence, they are still the worst defensive side in the league conceding 17 goals this season. A majority of those goals came against Niigata, but even had Verdy managed a lower score line at Niigata it may not have done much to their overall total. Verdy have conceded 5 more goals then the next two teams, Nagasaki and Ehime who have each conceded 12. The players to watch out for on Saturday are Junki Koike and the Sato brothers, Yuhei and Ryoga (I don’t think they are actually brothers). Junki and Ryoga account for 2/3 of all the goals Verdy have scored this season and Yuhei is the leading assist provider in the side.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Exploit the chaos and ensuing confusion. Likelihood 4. Verdy may have slightly improved defensively this past week but that was against Renofa Yamaguchi. At Niigata and against Kanazawa, two sides who are playing much better than Renofa, Verdy was in shambles at the back. Players looked confused on where to run to and who to mark and they were guilty of turning the ball over in their own half multiple times. There was one goal in the Machida game where Verdy had 8 defenders inside the 6-yard box, couldn’t get to the rebound in time, and allowed the Zelvia player a free shot on net from just inside the 18-yard box. That wasn’t even from a set piece. Verdy may have enjoyed a modicum of success against Renofa but I don’t think they have turned the corner on these mistakes just yet.  

2. Cut out the Verdy short passes around the box. Likelihood 3. This is the lone strength of Verdy as a majority of their goals stem from short passes that quickly open up the opposition’s defense. That means Chinen, Okazaki and our two central midfielders need to be spot on when attempting to intercept passes, making challenges, as well when they are watching the attacking runs from Verdy players.

5. Prediction

Verdy have been piped for multiple goals against stronger opponents this season. We won’t see the Verdy floodgates thrust open like we did when they played Niigata, and Verdy are still one of the top scoring sides in the league, but I am going for broke and say FC Ryukyu take this one 3-1. Season Record 4-1-2.

6. Round 8 in J2

(1) Albirex Niigata versus (3) Zweigen Kanazawa is the standout match this round. (3) Kyoto Sanga FC, (5) Jubilo Iwata, (6) Ventforet Kofu and (7) Blaublitz Akita are looking to make up ground on the leaders with some very favorable matchups this week.

The J-league International YouTube free broadcast this week features (12) Fagiano Okayama hosting (11) FC Mito Hollyhock. Fagiano are coming into this match having pulled out a very late draw against Ehime FC last week whereas Mito enter the round having lost their last two games.

7. Conclusion

FC Ryukyu are off to the best start in their history and really need to keep their foot on the gas in this one. For their part, Verdy are a side that can light up the score board (on both sides) at any given moment. Strap yourself in for what should be an exciting game between these two sides that history has shown is anything but boring.