Not much to say on this one other than FC Ryukyu got demolished by some rotational squad players once again. With no Abe, and no clear finisher in the lineup, FC Ryukyu came up limp against Avispa on Wednesday. The lone goal was a small consolation prize for FC Ryukyu who were able to avoid being shutout.
Match Day 33 Highlights (or low lights for FC Ryukyu fans)
Avispa Fukuoka FWD Yuya Yamagishi: Yuya scored his 3rd brace of the season last night and was a handful for our center backs.
Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Withstand the early barrage. Likelihood 2. FC Ryukyu nearly survived the opening half, and they were under tremendous amounts of pressure from Avispa, but a goal – that should have been disallowed due to a blatant handball- gave Avispa the lead in the 31′ minute.
2. Grab the early lead with a strong lineup selection. Likelihood 1. No, but they came close in the 14′ minute when Koizumi hit the post. Also of note, Abe was once again left off the roster completely so we are now made to wonder if we’ll see an injury report for this player in the next few days.
Match Day 33 Prediction
I tipped this one to end 1-0 for Avispa so Avispa wrecked my prediction by shredding our defense on their other 2 goals yesterday.
Takeaways from Match Day 33
1. FC Ryukyu were the victim of a harsh hand ball call, or no call this week. Last week FC Ryukyu were able to edge out Renofa on a PK stemming from a pretty harsh hand ball call and this week they were on the receiving end. It was clear that Yamagishi “rugby carried” the ball, after it hit him in the chest, and was able to get a shot off that took a deflection off a defender and into the net. The referee didn’t bother to consult any of his assistants despite the protests from many of the FC Ryukyu players and staff.
2. Dany, Koizumi, and Tanaka did all they could last night. Dany made some crucial saves in the early part of the match before his defense let him down. Koizumi was a real problem for Fukuoka last night as he created a majority of our chances. Finally, Tanaka never gives up and his goal in stoppage time was amazing as it came from a ridiculously tight angle along the goal line.
3. I am not sure we have the talent in this side that I once thought we did. Especially if we cannot defeat teams who are rotating players for what they view as an easy game against FC Ryukyu. Many teams have done this and FC Ryukyu have been unable to defeat any of these teams. Obviously, FC Ryukyu are where they are in the table for a reason, and it seems unlikely that they match their 2019-point tally, so I am concerned for this team moving forward.
Some players will certainly move on in the winter but I am not sure where this team will look for quality reinforcements to push them up the table in 2021.
All 3 of the top sides won in convincing manner this round while Kofu were able to keep their promotion aspirations alive for at least another week. Unfortunately for Albirex Niigata, they may have squandered their chances at promotion as the draw with Jubilo Iwata leaves them 12 points shy of 2nd place Fukuoka with 9 games remaining.
It will not get any easier for FC Ryukyu in the next few games as they travel to 3rd place V-Varen Nagasaki on Sunday followed by a full five days rest before welcoming Giravanz Kitakyushu to the Tapista.
With Nagasaki in the thick of things at the top of the table, I would expect a similar result for FC Ryukyu on the weekend which leaves us very little to look forward to. All we can do now is sit back and watch how the team responds to this recent loss.
FC Ryukyu enter a brutal stretch of games where they face the number 2, 3, and 6th team in the table over their next 3 games. First up is Avispa Fukuoka. FC Ryukyu have achieved some nice results against Avispa Fukuoka in their history but Avispa, of course, will be looking to rebound from their recent loss to Matsumoto Yamaga FC in order to maintain their automatic promotion spot from the J2.
Match Day 32: Avispa Fukuoka v Matsumoto Yamaga F.C. (0-1)
Match Day 32: FC Ryukyu v Renofa Yamaguchi FC (1-0)
Team Previews
Avispa Fukuoka: There may be some cracks emerging in the Fukuoka side that went undefeated during the months of September and October as Avispa have lost 2 out of their last 3 games. While Fukuoka possess the best record for goals against (23), 1 above Tochigi SC, they have a below average goals scored record (36). They sit just one slot above 17th JEF UTD Chiba, and 22nd Renofa Yamaguchi FC in that category.
It is hard to find fault with a side that has shutout their opponent 16 times this year, good for a 50% mark, but the knock on Fukuoka is definitely their ability to score goals. Their two leading goal scorers, Tono and Delgado, seem very streaky when it comes to finding the back of the net. Meaning, they can go long spells without scoring a goal before stringing together a few games with multiple goals.
As mentioned earlier, Avispa Fukuoka are very stout in defense and are anchored by arguably one of the best goal keepers in the J-League in Serantes. Serantes missed all of October to an injury (I assume) but has returned for their last two games. Salomonsson looks to be Fukuoka’s most creative player with 8 assists, though he only has one goal to his name this year. He is very lethal from the dead ball spot and is someone to watch out for on Wednesday.
Fukuoka went 2-1-2 in their past 5 games. They defeated Chiba and Mito, drew with Zelvia, and lost to Iwata and Matsumoto. In those five games, Avispa had an equal 3 goals scored, 3 goals conceded while registering 3 shutouts. It was difficult to draw any conclusion from the highlights as to what constitutes the Fukuoka game plan other than they look to start fast, grab a lead, before putting up a formidable defense. And they seem very comfortable in doing just that.
FC Ryukyu: Winners of 3 out of their last 5, FC Ryukyu will look to continue their successful trend against Fukuoka on Wednesday. FC Ryukyu rested some key players this past weekend and I hope that is due to necessity rather than injury.
Leading scorer Abe, a major part of the FC Ryukyu offense, will look to increase his goal tally of 13 tomorrow with the help of Koizumi, Koya and Motegi up top. It has been quite some time since we’ve seen the four of them in the lineup at one time and it looks as if Motegi is finally getting over the effects from CV19.
In defense, it is anyone’s guess as to who will be lining up at CB with Chinen likely out for the year, and Yong Jick sent to the bench last week.
What is certain though, is that Dany Carvajal is playing some of his best football to date and looks to be over the lingering ankle injury that cost him much of 2019. If there is one thing I know about sports injuries; it’s that, it takes more time to recover mentally than physically. Trusting your body to do what it did pre-injury is no easy task. It often requires small gains in confidence in order to reach optimal performance. We are finally seeing the Dany of early 2019 and it is great to know we have locked him up on a long term deal through 2022.
FC Ryukyu have the better record of these two sides but that is only counting games the past 2 seasons. Last year, Fukuoka were adrift when FC Ryukyu defeated them for only their second road game victory of 2019 in the late fall. This is a very different situation now as Fukuoka sit atop of the table with FC Ryukyu middling at the bottom.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Withstand the early barrage. Likelihood 2. Over the course of their last 5 matches, Avispa Fukuoka display a penchant of creating chances and scoring goals inside the opening 30 minutes of games. FC Ryukyu must weather that storm by preventing an early goal from Fukuoka if they wish to prevent the inevitable “parking the bus” from Fukuoka.
2. Grab the early lead with a strong lineup selection. Likelihood 1. It should be: Abe, Koya, Ikeda, Motegi, Koizumi, Uesato, Tanaka, Numata, Suzuki, Fukui, and Dany tomorrow. I think FC Ryukyu should amass as much firepower as they can in order to grab an early lead. This should force Fukuoka into more of an attacking role, something they may not be accustomed to executing. How else will we unlock such a stout defense unless we force their hand by pressing for a goal when they are behind?
Match Day 33 Prediction
Neither side has lit up the scoreboard as of late so this sets up as a low scoring game. Since FC Ryukyu’s 3 goal outburst against Omiya Ardija, they have failed to score a goal from open play in the last 2 matches. Fukuoka on the other hand, have only scored 3 goals in the past 6 games.
This could easily end 1-0 in favor of Avispa Fukuoka because they have the defense to keep FC Ryukyu off the scoreboard.
A mere 5 points separate the top 3 sides in J2 with current leaders (1) Tokushima Vortis, trying to maintain their grip on the pole position when they host (8) Tochigi SC this round. Meanwhile, (3) V-Varen Nagasaki will be rooting for a (2) Fukuoka slip up against FC Ryukyu, plus a win of their own, when they host (11) Fagiano Okayama.
(4) Albirex Niigata may have the toughest draw this round as they travel to (10) Jubilo Iwata who beat them 3-1 in the previous leg. Niigata can ill afford to drop any points this round as they have a nice stretch of winnable games before clashing with V-Varen Nagasaki at the end of the month. (5) Ventforet Kofu is in a similar situation as Niigata as they will need to earn a win over visiting (12) Mito Hollyhock, who drew with the hosts the last time they played, due to a much tougher slate of games this month for a team that is 10 points outside of promotion.
Avispa Fukuoka has a long history of never being crowned in any national competition here in Japan. Thus, making them the “Kings of Nothing.” So…………………………..
It is good to be back right! Over 4 months of inactivity and now we are a mere 24 hours away from kicking off the 2020 season (again). The second round of J2 pits promotion candidates, Avispa Fukuoka, against our beloved FC Ryukyu. My how the winds of change have favored Avispa since the 2019 season ended compared to that of FC Ryukyu. A new manager and new signings have reinvigorated a Fukuoka side that was adrift for much of 2019 while FC Ryukyu still have plenty of questions to answer heading (back) into 2020. Also, this is the first co-authored preview of 2020 as @NavyBlueWasp has written the Avispa Fukuoka team preview for this week’s match-up.
1. Weather Forecast
The irony of there being a decent weather forecast for Sunday is that there will be no fans there to enjoy it. I think we had rain at the Tapista, or at least it was forecast to rain, in 15 of the 21 home games last year. To make matters worse, there was one match with a 0% chance of rain but it rained for about 10 minutes prior to kickoff.
2. Match Day 1 Recap: Giravanz Kitakyushu (0) vs (1) Avispa Fukuoka 2/23/2020
Giravanz came out firing and nearly scored on two early opportunities. Unfortunately for Kitakyushu, the two shots that hit the side netting and post, would be their best chances to score all day.
Fukuoka took control of this game around the 25’ mark and never looked back. To be honest, the score line could have been higher had Fukumitsu scored on a breakaway if not for a nice save by the Giravanz keeper. Nevertheless, Avispa grabbed their first win of the season.
3. Match Day 1 Recap: JEF UTD Chiba (1) vs (0) FC Ryukyu 2/23/2020
FC Ryukyu surrendered the first, and only, goal of this match within 40 seconds of the opening whistle. Then FC Ryukyu proceeded to out possess (%65 to %35) and out-shoot (19/5) JEF for the remainder of the game. Unfortunately, none of that mattered as FC Ryukyu failed to score resulting in their first loss of 2020.
4. Team Previews
We are lucky enough to have @NavyBlueWasp provide the team preview this week for Avispa Fukuoka.
Avispa Fukuoka: “I think Manager Shigetoshi Hasebe has been our biggest signing this season. What he achieved with Mito Hollyhock last season (7th place, just missed the playoffs by a few goals) was quite remarkable. He brought his favorite player with him, Hiroyuki Mae, and straight away named him captain of the team. Mae was one of the leading players at Mito last season and is adept at directing the game plan of Hasebe.”
“Up front, we signed Juanma Delgado and Daiya Tono to bolster the attack that only scored 39 goals last season. Juanma scored 13 goals for Omiya last season and uses his physical advantage over the thinly framed defenders of J2 quite well. Naturally, you could feed Delgado with crosses, but he’s also quite skilled with his feet. Daiya Tono was recently signed from Honda FC by Kawasaki Frontale and then loaned to us prior to the start of the season. I see him as a big talent, and big improvement for us up front, as he scored nine goals to go along with seven assists in the JFL as one of the key players in Honda’s great Emperor’s Cup campaign. He also added four goals in that competition. Tono has already showed off his talents in this year’s season-opener against Kitakyushu where he scored the winner with many considering him the “Man of the Match” due to his high working-rate and persistence.”
“Beside the aforementioned Mae, we also signed Takuya Shigeyoshi from Kyoto Sanga FC. He formed a nice partnership with Mae in our central MF in the first game and I expect that duo to be our starting CMF for most of the season. Shigeyoshi is the more attacking player of the two, and he too has a high work-rate. He often can be found in both boxes of the field during any given match. In the attacking midfield, we’ve signed Daisuke Kikuchi on loan from Kashiwa Reysol and Takaki Fukumitsu, on loan from Cerezo Osaka, also formerly of Mito where he played under Hasebe. I rate Kikuchi highly and the J2 could be the right stage for him to shine again. Fukumitsu made a successful debut in the first league game and provides another attacking element up front.”
“A signing, which I was highly doubtful about, was the loaning of Emil Salomonsson from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. I was worried he would be to slow on the right wing, but he proved me wrong and made an impressive debut versus Kitakyushu. What he lacks in skills, he compensates with a high working-rate and a very unselfish team first mentality. While not a signing, it is important to note that starting goalkeeper, Jon Ander Serantes, opted to stay instead of leaving for the J1 or Europe (again). As you know, Serantes had some super performances last year and I was very worried that he would depart after our horrible season. And recently he turned down an offer from La Liga-side Atletico Bilbao.”
“I think these players are major signings that could see Avispa Fukuoka fight for promotion to the J1. The corona-crisis has complicated things a bit with such a long break in the schedule and then the cramming in of the remaining fixtures. But if everything works out right, and with a bit of luck, I think we can finish inside the top 2 in 2020 for one of the two automatic promotion-spots.”
“In closing, I mentioned our win against Kitakyushu as being quite entertaining and the team really showed what they can do any given week. Sure, not everything worked 100% of the time as this was the first time that eight of the eleven players in the starting lineup were playing together. Some could say it was just Kitakyushu, but the work-rates of Tono and Salomonsson, plus the way Mae organized the attack, provides a lot of optimism moving forward for Avispa.”
Avispa Fukuoka Injuries/Suspensions: Avispa has only 1 injury to contend with and that is to CB Carlos Gutierrez who picked up a crucial ligament injury in his knee prior to the opening fixture. He is likely out for the remainder of the campaign.
FC Ryukyu: While Avispa are dealing with 8 out of 11 new starters, FC Ryukyu are right there with them with 7 out of 11 new starters of their own. FC Ryukyu has a completely new back 4 and has replaced 3 out of the 4-attacking front men.
FC Ryukyu failed to fire in their opening round but came close on several occasions. What is worrisome is that none of those chances came from our lone striker in Highuchi’s 4-2-3-1 formation. In fact, more chances were created by our newly signed RB Tavares than Abe up front. Since relegation is of no issue for 2020, maybe this won’t matter. But we cannot rely on our midfielders to do all the heavy lifting moving forward.
We will see the return of several injured players and possibly this reinvigorates this squad but that is anyone’s guess. I for one will be eagerly awaiting the return to action to better size up the squad for 2020 and see what the new signings offer. Regardless, I think the roster is too thin to sustain the upcoming campaign (injuries and suspensions) and we will need loan reinforcements to fill out starting lineups each week as well as provide a break to the incumbent starters (Maybe a blessing in disguise as we can see what we have in our younger talent this year compared to seasons past, as they will be pressed into service). If you recall last year, we went long spells without Dany, Yu, Keita, Uehara, Torikai, Nishioka, Shinji, Tokumoto, Masutani and Ochi. We never even knew what was wrong with some of them and we saw how Highuchi favored a core group of players. We may not have that luxury this year and there is nothing wrong with a little experimentation in the lineup.
I hope that we see Koya take up the starting LM role with the injury to Shuto Kawai, but it is highly likely we see all 5 substitutes feature on Sunday. Some for player maintenance and some for tactical purposes. As I stated many times since the break began, we have a razor thin roster that cannot afford multiple simultaneous injuries, suspensions or time away for COVID-19.
FC Ryukyu Injuries/Suspensions: FC Ryukyu should see the return of all the players who were injured prior to their first match: GK Dany Carvajal, CB Ryohei Okazaki, LM Yu Tomidokoro and MF Kazuki Yamaguchi. FC Ryukyu will be without the services of 3rd choice GK Kosuke Inose, who is expected back in August from shoulder surgery, and FWD Takuya Hitomi who is out until Mid-November after suffering an injury to his knee. The most devastating injury that FC Ryukyu most contend with is that of starting LM, Shuto Kawai, who will be sidelined for 4 weeks due to an ankle ligament injury he picked up in practice last week.
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Match the physicality of Fukuoka. Likelihood 4. I think FC Ryukyu matches up well against the physical front-line of Fukuoka. We saw Delgado bully some of our defenders last season when he was with Omiya and I think the pairing of Suzuki and Yong Jick at the back are better suited to handle those duties this year. I also think that FC Ryukyu could have the advantage on set pieces, especially corner kicks, with their height advantage over Avispa.
2. Make quick passes across the pitch to stretch the back 4 of Fukuoka and open some shooting lanes for our LM & RM. Likelihood 3. They key to beating the 4-4-2, right? Need to make those long, cross pitch, passes into the open channels where one of our players is left unmarked. I did not see FC Ryukyu do this that much last year and I worry that our attack will narrow with the absence of Kawai’s speed down the left side.
6. Match Day Prediction
@OkinawaOzzy: This certainly isn’t the same Avispa squad from last year and I fear that we may see the true power of this Fukuoka side on Sunday evening. 2-1 in favor of our guests.
@NavyBlueWasp: I hate predictions, but I’ll go with 1-1. I don’t trust your boys lol!
7. Match Day 2 Fixtures of Note around J2
JEF UTD Chiba hosting Omiya in a battle of two possible promotion teams for 2020 gets the new campaign started right. Behind them is the reinforced Fagiano Okayama vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Saturday that also looks pretty tasty.
Maybe the biggest match of the re-opening weekend, as mentioned by @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites on the J-Talk Extra Time pod this week, will be Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata on Sunday. This match will officially open the new Sanga Stadium for J2 with two of the top promotion favorites for 2020 locking horns.
8. Around the J-League Blogs, Twitter Accounts and Pod Casts
@J_League_En: The J-League will broadcast two games this weekend for those located internationally (not located in Japan) JUN 27 Tokyo Verdy v Machida Zelvia 1800 JST & JUN 28 Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata 1800 JST. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmQp6ZaAejJKKkXc_Y_lh1A
9. Conclusion
FC Ryukyu once again host Avispa Fukuoka for their first home game of the season. Last year FC Ryukyu defeated Avispa twice, 3-1 & 1-0. But I do not think we will catch them sleeping on us like they may have in opening fixture last year, nor do I think we are facing the same opponent that provided FC Ryukyu their first road win in over 7 months late last season.
The one advantage that both sides share is that this is their first competitive match in over 100 days and they both recently came back to training. All the miscommunication leading to missed passes and misfires on net are sure to pop up this weekend. This is such a strange restart to a season that already completed an off-season, pre-season, and opening fixture so anything could happen on Sunday.
In any event, time to get it going again and with that, Ozzy Osbourne will close this preview.
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