One point from a possible six against the bottom two sides of J2 in consecutive weeks. Let that resonate as FC Ryukyu completely tripped over their own laces the past two rounds by failing to defeat either of these sides. Once more it was the switching off shortly after taking a lead in a game that led to an Omiya equalizer within 30 seconds of Akamine’s goal, and yet another disappointing result for this club. It is hard to view this as anything more than a failure by Ryukyu to secure 6-points these past two rounds and one that is likely to prevent them from securing promotion in 2021.
FC Ryukyu MF Kazaki Nakagawa: The man might not have made the score sheet but his impact was felt all over the pitch that Sunday night. He rang the crossbar in what could’ve been the opening goal for Ryukyu and then followed that up with some fine passing and defensive efforts. Getting Nakagawa going in the second half of the season is crucial for this side.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Respond to Omiya’s fast start: Likelihood 3. Yes, in fact it was FC Ryukyu that started off strong inside the opening 12 minutes before Omiya took over for the remainder of the half.
2. Help Abe out: Likelihood 2. Unfortunately no.
4. Prediction
Said this one would end in disappointment for Ryukyu, and though they didn’t lose, I can’t view it as anything else. Take a draw as Omiya at least reached the 2-goal tally. Season Record 6-6-11.
5. Talking Points from Round 23
1. Each side had chances to win this game. Both hit the post, both called the opponents’ goalies into action on a couple of occasions, and both spoiled some good opportunities.
2. Injuries once again. FC Ryukyu lost Kaz Uesato to an MCL sprain when he landed awkwardly in the first half and could not continue. Add him to the ever growing list of Ryukyu players that will miss extended time over the next few months. FC Ryukyu’s injury list heading into the break is in the link below though it doesn’t include Tanaka, Ikeda, Dany or Taguchi. Click>>> FC Ryukyu Injuries
Iwata’s 14 game unbeaten streak finally came to end with both Kyoto and Niigata playing to a 1-1 draw meaning Kyoto go top based on goal difference. Elsewhere, Kofu, Yamagata, Zelvia and Nagasaki all won to move that much closer to the leaders.
The race at the bottom took some twists and turns with some surprising results for Gunma, Ehime and Omiya which now makes it a six horse race for the drop as SC Sagamihara slowly wither away.
FC Ryukyu have a tall ask in front of them the next few months if they wish to stay in the promotion hunt. Riddled by injuries to several key players, and facing the daunting month of September, I am not sure they can replicate the fast start to the season that saw them earn 12/10 points in the months of March and April that propelled them to the top. Next up is a trip to Kitakyushu for Ryukyu on Monday August 9th.
FC Ryukyu travel to 14th place Fagiano Okayama tomorrow in what is shaping up as a must win game for Ryukyu. Ryukyu have done enough the past few weeks to stay in the promotion hunt, but really need to continue their forward momentum they built up last week at home to Kitakyushu. Ryukyu had a full week of preparation heading into this game whereas Okayama’s schedule was slightly disrupted with a midweek Emperors Cup match at Tokyo Verdy. However, Okayama won that match and now enter this game on a 2-game wining streak following their impressive, though slightly controversial, win on the road at Niigata last round.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Previous Match Highlights
Team Previews
Fagiano Okayama
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 19 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from Fagiano Okayama
Another round with no visiting FC Ryukyu fans, but the weather looks favorable.
Fagiano Okayama: Okayama may be suffering from a lack of goals due to the numerous injuries they’ve sustained this year, but they’ve more than made it up for it with their defense. But they are a strange side in that they’ve been both shutout 8 times while shutting out their opponent 8 times in 2021. Good for fourth in the league when it comes to clean sheets. In that same vein of being on either end of the spectrum, Okayama have won five out six games this season when they score first, but have only mustered one draw in nine games when they conceded the first goal. For the season, Okayama has a 1-0-3 record against those sides currently, who have been recently, inside the top six of the table with the notable win occurring at Albirex Niigata last week.
Fagiano Okayama went 2-1-2 over their last five games that included wins over Matsumoto Yamaga and Albirex Niigata; a draw with Omiya Ardija; and losses to V-Varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy. Both sides had ample opportunities to score in the Omiya/Okayama match but neither could hit the target despite being right on the doorstep. Okayama saw a redirected ball break the deadlock in their match to Nagasaki but did come close to leveling the game at the end. Their first win five weeks came on the road at Matsumoto 3-1 when they decided to move Satoki Uejo into a forward role in a 4-4-1-1 formation, which was up from his normal attacking midfield position on the right.
Okayama looked far better in this game then they have in a long time and benefited from a failure of Matsumoto to clear their lines early in the second half for the opening goal. Then Uejo contributed a spectacular solo effort to push the score line to 2-0 before surrendering a goal to Yamaga, but then benefited once more from a Matsumoto turnover. The game against Verdy looked very similar to the one against Omiya in that both sides were trading chances, however, it was Verdy who succeeded in scoring during stoppage time. But the biggest prize in the last five games was the controversial win over Niigata.
Niigata had the preponderance of chances throughout the game but were just unlucky. Okayama took advantage of that bad luck when Uejo scored a goal, from a clear offside position, in the 68′ minute. Not sure what the linesman was looking at there but these things happen from time to time and often decide the fates of some sides. Okayama then withstood a flurry of activity by Niigata near the end that included a couple of goal mouth scrambles and a shot off the post.
On paper, Okayama looks to be a far more dangerous team on the road (5 wins and 3 draws) compared to at home where they’ve only won once, have lost three in a row, and have scored 3 goals in their 8 home games. But I think this side was buoyed by the win over Niigata as well as the recent strong performances the past three rounds. Uejo is someone you will always have to keep an eye on as he can strike, with power and placement, from just about anywhere on the pitch. It remains to be seen if Lee Yong-Jae, a forward who has given Ryukyu fits in the past, will make an appearance after missing the past 15 rounds due to an undisclosed injury. Kawamoto, on loan from Shimizu S-Pulse, pairs well with Uejo up top and Okayama, in an attempt to shoehorn in some of their better players into the lineup, are starting Shuhei Tokumoto at LM with the veteran Miyazaki taking over LB duties.
FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu may have stumbled the last time they went through a favorable schedule, mustering only 4 points from 3 games against Ehime FC, Tochigi SC, and Montedio Yamagata, but they cannot afford to do the same over their next set of features against Okayama, Yamaga, Kanazawa, Sagamihara, Omiya, and Kitakyushu. A seven game unbeaten streak, starting with the win over Giravanz, over these matches would not only allow Ryukyu to keep pace with the leaders, it could see them overtake them. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet as this side is still dealing with multiple injuries and at times, can play down to the level of their competition and drop points.
Last week’s win over Kitakyushu was a start in the right direction. Inose flashed some real potential, Koya scored a brace, Tanaka added two more assists to his total points, and Chinen was doing what Chinen does best. The only downside to that performance was the loss of Ren Ikeda to a back injury and there has been no word on his status heading into the game on Saturday. I hope he misses no time as he has been one of our best young players this season, and when you factor in the disappearing act by Kazaki Nakagawa, Ryukyu cannot afford to have a gap in the central midfield for too long. Shintaro Shimizu will likely take over these duties for Ikeda in the interim, which means Higuchi will have to dress both Shinya Uehara and Shingo Akamine as the replacement strikers. It should also see Ramon return to the bench, though a start for him in the Ikeda role would be justified.
Ryukyu were also without Koki Kazama last week and no one is certain if he is dealing with an injury or it was a veteran rest week for the central defensive midfielder. It did allow Ichimaru to make an appearance and considering that we signed that young player on a full transfer from Gamba this season, I’d like to see more of him moving forward. There was news this week that a top player and staff member had contracted CV-19, but no others were deemed close contacts, so barring some changes to the lineup or reserves, we won’t have an idea as to who that was.
In the nine games that Ryukyu have played against sides in the bottom half of the table, they have earned six wins, three draws, and suffered zero losses. They’ve scored 20 goals, 2/3 of the entire goals scored this year, and have conceded 7 goals which is close to 50% of the total goals they have conceded. Ryukyu’s next six games, dependent on how Zweigen gets on of course, are all against teams in the bottom half of the table, with three of those games against sides in the relegation zone. This is a very critical moment of the season for Ryukyu as points dropped over these next few rounds would be killer to their promotion hopes. They’ve already achieved a run of five wins in a row, and 8 games undefeated this season. And they need another run like that right now.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Get that first goal. Likelihood 3. The stats tell us that all eleven of Ryukyu’s wins, and three of their draws, have come when playing with the lead. Ryukyu have won two games from five when they were playing from behind, but lost the other three. All six of Okayama’s wins have been a result of them scoring first in matches, with the lone blemish being the loss to Mito Hollyhock. But they have not won any of the nine games they’ve been forced to play from behind. It may just be as simple as that on Saturday.
2. No excuses this time if Okayama parks the bus. Likelihood 2. This game looks and feels a lot like the game Ryukyu had with Akita a few weeks ago. Both have a similar goal scoring and conceded record which means Ryukyu, more importantly Higuchi, should be prepared for a same set of events to play out. If Okayama’s defensive game plan is to bend, but not break, then our players need to be creative in the set-up play and accurate with the shots they do take. We saw what happened when Niigata missed ample opportunities against Okayama as well as what happened when Ryukyu switched off at the end against Akita. Do not let Okayama hang around to poach a goal or equalize. That means being only the fifth team this season to score more than two goals against Okayama.
5. Prediction
I am hesitant to predict a Ryukyu win as I’ve been dead wrong the past few rounds. I will say that Fagiano Okayama will score first, as they’ve done that in every game these teams have faced one another in J2, but I will also say that Ryukyu pull this one out 2-1 in dramatic fashion. Season Record 6-4-8.
6. Round 19 in J2
All Times Listed are JST
It is interesting that all four of the top sides, ranked 1-4, play four teams all ranked 11-14 in the same order (1v11, 2v12, 3v13, 4v14). Guess that means that no one side has an easier game than the other with the slight advantage afforded to (2) Jubilo Iwata who are at home (12) JEF United Chiba. (1) Kyoto Sanga travel to (11) Zweigen Kanazawa with (3) Albirex Niigata facing another tough test for goals on Monday night when they travel to (13) Blaublitz Akita. (5) Ventforet Kofu and (6) V-Varen Nagasaki will look to cut their deficit when they play (16) Renofa Yamaguchi and (15) Tochigi SC.
At the bottom it is (17) Matsumoto Yamaga looking to put some distance between them and the drop when they host (21) Omiya Ardija and then there is a very important game between (19) Giravanz Kitakyushu and (20) Ehime FC. This week’s free broadcast game on the J-League International YouTube channel will be between (18) Thespakusatsu Gunma and (7) FC Machida Zelvia.
With the race at the top ebbing back and forth, points are at a premium these days. Almost to the point where every game for the top four becomes a ‘must win game’ in order to keep pace with the pack. It took Ryukyu five halves of football before they finally scored their first ever goal against Okayama last year, but they were able to win on the road, and earn a draw at home, when they fell behind. We’d rather see Ryukyu jump out to a lead like we saw last week, and maybe the midweek Emperors Cup match for Okayama at Tokyo Verdy has disrupted preparations for this game. In any event, Ryukyu need to use their momentum from last week and take the three points on Saturday.
FC Ryukyu will make their longest road trip of the season when they travel to face Blaublitz Akita this Saturday. That comes on the heels of their third longest road trip of the year to Niigata last week, and just before another road trip to Matsumoto Yamaga the following Wednesday for an Emperors Cup match. These two teams are very familiar with one another stemming from their time together in both the JFL and J3, but this will be the first time they face each other in the J2.
Both enter Match Day 17 following a loss the previous round and both are looking to rebound in a big way. These two sides are dealing with some injuries to their back line which has seen their strong defensive performances to start the season taper off as of late resulting in consecutive losses for Ryukyu and Akita failing to win since their 2-1 victory at V-Varen Nagasaki one month ago. On a much more positive note, Martin Spivey will be joining the FC Ryukyu blog this week to preview Blaublitz Akita so please enjoy the change to the normal opposition’s preview I churn out.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Previous Match Day Highlights
Team Previews
Blaublitz Akita
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 17 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Maybe some wind to contend with during the match but otherwise a very nice forecast. And once again there will be no visiting FC Ryukyu fans allowed to attend while Okinawa is under a state of emergency.
Blaublitz Akita:As a Blaublitz Akita supporter of almost a decade, I have to say I’m in Dreamland. From JFL to J3 and now J2. After our J3 victory in 2017, I honestly thought we wouldn’t get another chance of promotion any time soon when our J2 license application was rejected. But here we are. And last season took me by surprise. A real underdog story that I feel mirrors Ryukyu’s rise (if I may say such a thing!). Until about 5 seasons ago, both clubs were stuck in the mid-table of J3 with similar crowds and set-ups and now we face each other in the league above, 12th at home to 3rd.
Both teams have seen their form (and results) tail off a little bit in recent weeks but after watching bits of Ryukyu here and there, I can see they will be a really tough opponent. A great passing side that knows how to score goals. As for Akita, well, I imagine we can be a hard watch for the neutral at times. Our strength is in our strong work ethic – the players never stop running. A long throw-in into the box from RB Suzuki or MF Fukoin can be expected at every possible opportunity or a long ball from the center of defense for pacy forward Keita Saito to run on to. Akita will sit back and let Ryukyu have most of the possession but hopefully it won’t be all one-way traffic.
There are concerns about our central defense, with Kaito Chida having been out all season and Shigeto Masuda missing the last few games. Veteran legend Kenichi Kaga is a solid back-up but he needs a break soon you feel. If he starts, and has tired legs, then the Ryukyu attack may want to try and run at him from the start! After Ryukyu, Akita have Machida and Niigata coming up so I fear we could go on a run of 6 or 7 games without a win. Still, I find the outcome of this game a little hard to predict.
Ryukyu could smash us by 3 or 4 if we’re not at the races but we could also nick a win. A 1-1 draw wouldn’t be a total surprise based on our home results so far this season. Can we benefit from the fact there will be no away supporters in the ground? I just wanna see a good, clean fight. May the best team win! (I’ll take a point though…)
Thank You Martin for that great preview of Blaublitz Akita. You can find Martin on Twitter @bantam84 for all things Akita.
FC Ryukyu: May was a rough month for FC Ryukyu as they won two, drew two and lost two. In Ryukyu’s first twelve games of the season they surrendered more than one goal in a game only once. Ryukyu have now conceded 2 goals in each of their past 3 games. The injury to starting CB Okazaki has compounded that problem and will do so for the next 7 weeks. For a team that was winning on the back of great defensive performances, and steady offensive output, Ryukyu have really come apart at the seems this past month.
Takuma Abe’s return up top helped last week and we should see the Ryukyu talisman get back on the score sheet this week. Yong Jick has been forced to drop back into the starting CB role along side Chinen and since we only have the one game to make any judgement on whether or not he has improved from last season in that role, we will have to reserve judgment for a later date. Fukui has now become the emergency defender on the bench and though Ryukyu have not seen Akamine in the squad for a few weeks, I felt they fielded their strongest bench this season last week.
Dressing three forwards, vice four, for each match allows some of the talented mid fielders on the roster a shot at making the bench. Though it is anyone’s guess whether or not they will appear in a game. So far we’ve seen Higuchi prefer to play Yu Tomidokoro over Ichimaru in the central midfield with Motegi filling in for Kiyotake and Uehara coming on late in place of Koya. Shimizu will likely spell Abe at some point in the match while Abe gets back to full match fitness levels following an injury he picked up at Ehime FC.
Still, I would like to see Nakagawa make the bench but with no idea of who is actually hurt these days, we must always wait for the team to tweet out the starting lineup a few hours before kickoff. Perhaps it would be best to not practice in the hot Okinawa heat during the day and tailor practice times to mirror kickoff times that week so guys can remain somewhat fresh and get their bodies in tune for that time of the day. Ryukyu have three road games in a row, which included last weeks game at Niigata, spread across 10 days meaning they will lose anywhere between 5-6 days of practice for travel. This may be the only rest they get in between games the next few weeks while it is getting really hot down here in Okinawa.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Get to the 2-goal mark first. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu have hit the 2-goal mark only twice in their last 8 games while being held to 1-goal (3) or shutout (3) in the other 6 games. The two-goal mark maybe enough to see out the win as Akita have only managed to score 2 goals in a game, both on the road, on 2 occasions this season. If Akita follow the same path of our previous three opponents and score 2 goals against us, it may be a tough ask to score 3 goals against a team that has only allowed 2 or more goals in a game 4 times this year.
2. Do not take them for granted. Likelihood 4. Several of Akita’s opponents may have overlooked them as the newly promoted side but that has resulted in Akita earning victories over Kyoto, JEF, Mito and Nagasaki while nearly earning a win over Iwata. Ryukyu need to go out there and set the pace early as Akita have proven themselves a resilient team this season.
3. Same as last week, set pieces will be key. Likelihood 2. Akita scores, and concedes, most of their goals from set pieces and though Ryukyu turned the corner last week by not allowing a goal from a set piece, they will need to do the same this week at Akita.
5.Prediction
Akita will be no easy nut to crack for Ryukyu as they have shut out their opponent on four times while playing at home. However, they have conceded all three of their goals at home in their last three home matches. Akita and Ryukyu earned the same results, and near identical goals scored/conceded record, over their last five games, but Ryukyu’s overall goals conceded on the year matches the total for Akita’s overall goals scored tally. I appreciate Martin going in for the point, and see that as a real possibility, but Ryukyu need a rebound win following two consecutive defeats so therefore I’ll say to 2-1 to Ryukyu. Season Record 6-4-6.
6. Round 17 in J2
All Times Listed are in Japan Standard Time
Round 17 kicks off Friday evening with (20) Thespakusatsu Gunma taking on (10) FC Mito Hollyhock. (1) Albirex Niigata will play their fourth game in a row against a top six side when they travel to (5) Ventforet Kofu on Saturday with (2) Kyoto Sanga FC also on the road this week at (16) Tochigi SC. (4) Jubilo Iwata and (6) FC Machida Zelvia are also on the road this round when they face (18) Giravanz Kitakyushu and (17) Matsumoto Yamaga FC respectively.
(22) SC Sagamihara will take on (7) V-Varen Nagasaki for the free J-League International YouTube broadcast this Saturday and the link can be found below the infographic.
It will be interesting to see how Ryukyu respond in the face of adversity following two losses in a row. Akita could take advantage of some tired legs from Ryukyu, as well as some depressed morale, so Ryukyu really need to gut this one out. A couple of nice goals from Takuma Abe, set up by Koya Kazama and Keita Tanaka, could provide the much needed boost in confidence for this side who are still in the thick of things this far into the season.
We made it! Sort of. Two teams that seemed to be on a collision course as the league leaders have stumbled the past few weeks but that still doesn’t diminish the importance of this game. The fact that the winner of this game has a chance to climb into the league lead, while the loser could find themselves three points adrift of the promotion zone, means both sides will be gunning for all three points on Sunday. The month of May has been hugely important for the promotion race as all three of the tops sides squared off against one another which also included several games pitting sides situated inside the top six in the table during this same time frame. Kyoto Sanga has come out on top so far after securing four points from a possible six with FC Ryukyu sitting on one point from one game and Albirex Niigata on zero.
Weather Forecast and Match Day Information
Previous Match Highlights
Team Previews
Albirex Niigata
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 16 in J2
Conclusion
1.Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from Albirex Niigata
Looks like a very nice day for football. Doesn’t matter for the Ryukyu fans though as there will be no visiting fans allowed at this game with Okinawa under a state of emergency.
Albirex Niigata: It took 14 rounds before Niigata suffered their first loss of the campaign, but only 1 more to lose their second. Niigata started out very strong this year winning the opening 5 games followed by winning 5 out of their next 7. But Niigata has fallen off a bit starting with the draw at home to Matsumoto Yamaga F.C. and then the above mentioned losses in consecutive weeks to FC Machida Zelvia and Kyoto Sanga FC. For the year, Albirex have taken zero points off of any of the teams currently inside the top six, though they have yet to face Ventforet Kofu or Jubilo Iwata, whereas FC Ryukyu have taken 7 points in their 3 matches against these teams.
Niigata went 2-1-2 in their last five games with two wins in a row over JEF United Chiba and Omiya Ardija before the draw to Matsumoto and losses to Zelvia and Kyoto. Niigata looked rampant against Chiba and opened the scoring in the 5′ minute from a corner kick before Shion Homa overpowered a JEF central midfielder to set up Kaito Tanaguchi’s second goal of the match. Niigata clawed their way back from 2-1 deficit at Omiya to win 3-2 in what can best be described as a game in which Niigata never quit despite playing from behind. But a major reason why Niigata found themselves in that deficit was due to the costly midfield turnovers that led to fast break counter attacks for Omiya. And that trend of committing costly turnovers has continued through to this game with Ryukyu.
An early turnover by Niigata nearly led to the opening goal for Yamaga but neither side could find the breakthrough, that in spite of Matsumoto hitting the crossbar twice. Zelvia opened the scoring inside the opening minute of their match with Niigata when the Zelvia attack stretched the Niigata back line all over the 18-yard box. Then 10′ minutes later Zelvia doubled their lead from a cross into the box that can be loosely traced back to a turnover by Niigata near the halfway line. Against Kyoto it was Niigata’s inability to clear a ball in their own end that led to the decisive goal for Kyoto Sanga in a game where Koji Suzuki came close to scoring on four separate occasions.
For the season Niigata have really only wobbled on the road as that is where a majority of their close calls, and first loss, have occurred. Think back to the draws against SC Sagamihara that snapped Niigata’s unbeaten streak, then the draw on the road to Tochigi, followed by the come from behind effort at Omiya and finally the loss to Zelvia. All games in which Niigata surrendered 2 goals. However, Niigata’s home record is far more impressive as they’ve only conceded twice at home all year with the most recent coming against Kyoto and the first occurring way back on match day 4 to Thespakusatsu Gunma. They hold an impressive 14 goals scored to 2 goals conceded at home with 5 shutouts in 7 games.
Every Ryukyu fan will recognize the man up top for Niigata this week as it is the former FC Ryukyu striker Koji Suzuki who will lead the line for Albirex. Koji has 4 goals in his last 5 games after returning from an early season injury and in the 6 previous games he has played against Ryukyu, Koji has scored 6 goals. Granted, that was back in the days of J3 football but he owns an impressive scoring record against us and has scored in all but 2 games when facing Ryukyu. The player to really watch out for is LM Shion Homa. Probably the top player in J2 this year, the man is simply electric. He has speed, touch, tenacity, can score from anywhere and is not easily moved off the ball. It will be a tough ask for either Keita Tanaka or our two holding midfielders to contain Homa on Sunday. If there is a weakness to this side, I would say it has to be the GK Koto Abe who hasn’t looked the best the past few rounds.
FC Ryukyu: While the results for Ryukyu were not great these past five games, I wouldn’t necessarily say that it has been their worst run of form all season when compared to rounds 1-5 and 6-10. In their opening five games Ryukyu were undefeated with a 10/3 goals scored/conceded ratio and earned 2 shutouts. Easily the best to date. In matches 6-10 that ratio dropped to 5/3 with a 3-1-1 record but they recorded 4 shutouts during that time. So no offense but stout defending. Finally, in games 11-15 Ryukyu had a 10/6 goals scored/conceded ratio but only one shutout while going 2-2-1. But a majority of those goals (9) came in just two matches for Ryukyu which also saw the boys from Okinawa shutout on two occasions, matching the total from rounds 6-10. So it is kind of a toss up between the last two sets of games. So what is going on?
It is hard to say what exactly has happened to a side that started out so quickly, matched only by this weeks opponent Niigata, only to taper off against some opponents they should’ve beat. I would argue that it has been two things. First, I would point to the short turn around between the midweek Kyoto match and the away game with Ehime where Ryukyu drew 1-1 but ended up losing Abe to injury for what is now going on 3 weeks. Second, is that Ryukyu are just missing on that last pass inside the opponents end that could lead to goal scoring opportunities, which was an area they were excelling at to begin the season.
Abe’s absence speaks volumes on why the attack has dried up. Granted, he has gone through a dry spell as of late, but it is his overall play that frees up so many of the attacking Ryukyu players in the box. Something I don’t think we are getting out Shintaro Shimizu despite his recent scoring run and shots on net. Prior to the game with Tochigi, Ryukyu routinely dressed four forwards but found themselves only using the veterans Uehara and Akamine in limited situations. This means they cannot be relied upon to start games or play for extended periods of time. Worse still is the fact that Akamine wasn’t in the squad last week and who knows if he is dealing with an injury. I thought for sure he would’ve been the next man up in the event of an injury to Abe, albeit in a limited role of 45-60 minutes per game, but that is certainly not the case.
Last week against Montedio Yamagata Ryukyu recorded 18 total shots but I think a fair number of those were attempted passes to attacking Ryukyu players and not actually shots. You could see that some passes were intended to be struck by an onrushing Ryukyu attacker that just wasn’t there unlike when Abe is in the lineup. To compound matters even more, Ryukyu are likely without the services of CB Okazaki this round following his mid game substitution last week. There has been no word on whether or not he has picked up an injury that will force him to miss time, but judging by past events from Ryukyu when it comes to releasing injury info, we may hear something on game day or we may hear nothing at all, which means we have to assume we will be without one of better defenders this week.
That likely means the return of fan favorite Fukui to the lineup. I don’t think Fukui will start in place of Okazaki, if Okazaki is indeed injured, but that means Yong Jick will revert back to the CB role that he didn’t exactly excel in last year. Yong Jick has played much better this year when he is in a central mid fielder role late in games vice having to deal with the oppositions’ attack for a full 90′ minutes. If Higuchi does indeed opt to start Fukui, then hold on for a bumpy ride as I fear Ryukyu could be reduced to 10-men with any of the challenges Fukui puts in. Ryukyu are not in the greatest shape entering this match and we really need the front four to step up in order to carry the team while we are weakened at the back.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. The offense must carry the day. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu could likely be without the services of Takuma Abe and Ryohei Okazaki this week which is not the best way to be entering the match against a tough opponent. Ryukyu will need the offense to step up in place of the defense, who had been carrying this side through their first 12 games, and provide some breathing room for our weary and battered defenders. Ikeda, Shintaro and Uehara need to get their shots on target and ask plenty of ‘tough’ questions of the Niigata GK.
2. Win the battle of set pieces. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu has surrendered 6 goals from set pieces this year, 3 in the past two weeks, and Niigata has scored a majority of their goals (9) from set pieces. Conversely, Niigata have conceded most of their goals from set pieces (4) which ranks as Ryukyu’s second highest tally (5) for types of goals scored behind crosses (11). I hope set pieces were tightened up this week at practice as Ryukyu are extremely vulnerable to CKs these days and failed to score on any of the 14 CKs they had last week.
3. Exploit Niigata’s turnovers. Likelihood 3. I spoke in the team preview section about how Niigata has been a little bit turnover prone during their recent stretch of games, and the best way to grab the lead over them is through fast breaks on short counter attacks. We cannot afford to break out, have any of our players fail to make some penetrating runs into the box, or in support of the counter, just to pull up and allow the Niigata defense time to recover. Just go for broke on these plays and at the very least try and earn a set piece.
5. Prediction
Ryukyu own a poor record against Niigata and have failed to score a single goal at the Big Swan in any of the games they’ve played there. While both sides are looking to make a statement this game, I regrettable believe it will be Niigata who gets the better of what could be a weakened Ryukyu side to the tune of 2-0. Season Record 6-3-6.
6. Round 16 in J2
All Times Listed are in Japan Standard Time
We all know the importance of the (2) Albirex Niigata versus (3) FC Ryukyu match, but league leaders (1) Kyoto Sanga FC have a stiff test of their own when they face (5) Ventforet Kofu who are undefeated in their last 5 games. Kyoto, who are undefeated in their last 10 games, will need to win this game or find themselves neck and neck, or behind, the teams just below them in the table. (4) Jubilo Iwata will look to close the gap between them and the top three as they face a reeling (11) Zweigen Kanazawa side who has failed to win in their last 6 games. This game will also be the free broadcast on the J-League International YouTube channel this round. All of the bottom 5 sides have tough draws this round which could see little movement at the bottom of table.
I was concerned last week that we might slip up against Yamagata and those fears, along with a few others, have only increased this week heading into Niigata. Despite the injuries, the long odds for victory and that Ryukyu haven’t scored a single goal against Niigata since Shinya Uehara scored in the 86′ minute of the first ever fixture between these two sides in 2019, Ryukyu need to put in an effort reminiscent to the start of their season vice the last few weeks. Matching Kyoto’s 4 points from 2 games against top 3 sides this month is the task at hand. Guess that means it is…
Despite the weather forecast calling for rain and thunderstorms, 2,500 people ventured out and were rewarded with rather calm weather. However, the most anticipated match of this round had few fireworks as both teams played to a 0-0 draw. There were a lot of positives that came out of this match for Ryukyu and though we’d like to see this side beat the stronger teams at home, there is a long way to go this season.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Review of the Keys to Victory
Prediction
Talking Points
Round 12 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Highlights
2.Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu GK Junto Taguchi: Taguchi was right in the firing line last night as Kyoto registered 13 shots on target, and not a single one got past Taguchi. His save in the second half from a Miyayoshi shot was probably the biggest one he made all game.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Bend, don’t break on defense. Likelihood 3. Absolutely. Ryukyu stymied one of the best offenses in the league last night and made Utaka almost invisible.
2. Win the individual battles within the game. Likelihood 3. To a large degree yes. Ren Ikeda, Tatsuya Chinen, Takuma Abe and Keita Tanaka were all in fine form. The only shame was that Ryukyu didn’t score.
3. We need a big performance out of Abe, Koya and Tanaka. Likelihood 4. Yes. Koya was playing really well and so to was Numata who was picking out players left and right inside the box.
4. Prediction
Went with a 1-1 draw and it ended 0-0. I think that is good enough to give myself a win this week. Season Record 6-2-4.
5. Talking Points from Match Day 12
1. Close but no cigar. Each side had some good opportunities to score last night but could not slip one past two of the better goal keepers in J2. Each side had one great chance to score that required nice saves on the part of the keepers; Shintaro Shimizu’s header in the first half was just simply the perfect height for the keeper to parry out of danger but it still required a diving save on the part of Wakahara; and there was the abovementioned save by Taguchi on Miyayoshi. Each side had plenty of misses with lots of shots also being blocked by defenders in the box. Koya laid one off for Abe to finish but I think Koya had enough time and space near the back to post to attempt a header on net vice the pass. Utaka had one clean look on net but sent his shot high over the bar in the first half. Then Abe and Shintaro both came close near the end but again, the shots went wide of the mark.
2. Ryukyu were lucky to escape unscathed from two costly turnovers. Both occurred in the second half with the most egregious one being by Yu Tomidokoro that turned Kyoto loose on net. It was only the save by Taguchi that bailed Ryukyu out of what could have been an absolute disaster. We knew coming into this game that Kyoto punishes sides on turnovers so one on hand you can look at it as luck, and the other as skill on the part of Taguchi. But Ryukyu cannot afford to make those costly mistakes in their own end against good sides.
3. Ryukyu played much better in the second half. There were more attacks from Ryukyu and they looked as if they would break the deadlock but were still out shot 2-1 by Kyoto in the second half. It was almost the exact opposite of the SC Sagamihara game as Ryukyu only registered 2 shots on target in the second half compared to 8 from Kyoto. It looked as if Ryukyu controlled most of the play in the second half but each side went into half time, and finished the match, with a 50/50 split in time of possession. Furthermore, when Ryukyu introduced both Yong Jick and Shinya Uehara, they couldn’t produce enough dead ball kicks to bring the height of these players, and that of Chinen and Okazaki, to bear on the Kyoto goal. Uehara had one look that was sent high over the bar from what may have been the lone free kick in Kyoto territory.
4. So many games in such a short time span yet Ryukyu only used two substitutes last night. Yong Jick came on for Yu Tomidokoro in the central midfield which is becoming a trend. I think that substitution, along with Uehara, really provided Ryukyu with some coverage on the set pieces from Kyoto near the end but Ryukyu only managed to earn two corner kicks last night. However, I wish they had brought on Motegi, Akamine or Kiyotake to introduce some fresh legs to the fight.
5. There was a strange play were an injured (or acting as if injured) Kyoto player interfered with a pass from Ryukyu and the referee decided to award Kyoto the ball in their own end. Some thought it may result in a dropkick but I am not sure what went on with this play. The referee let these guys play all game and awarded no cards despite the several conversations he was having with multiple players yesterday.
6. I know we all wanted to see FC Ryukyu win, but the performance was good, and it was a vital point. Keep in mind that Kyoto entered this match having won their previous 6 games and were pretty much scoring at will. The fact that Ryukyu were able to shut down such a potent offense is really encouraging moving forward. They still maintain a 3 point lead over Kyoto, who is heading into a tough stretch of games, are 7 points clear of 4th placed Jubilo Iwata, and have conceded the fewest goals (7) in J2. Look how much better this side is at producing results this year compared to last year when defending was a problem despite all the firepower that Ryukyu possessed.
7. Strange statistic that means absolutely nothing but exists nonetheless. When the FC Ryukyu team bus arrives before their opponents when Ryukyu are at home, they are 5-0-0. When it arrives after, as it did yesterday and against Omiya, they are 0-2-0 with no goals scored.
Leaders Albirex Niigata retained the top slot after a thrilling come from behind victory at Omiya Ardija. Teams seeded 2 to 4 all drew, as well as Ventforet Kofu, thus not changing positions near the top. Though FC Machida Zelvia’s 2-1 win at Fagiano Okayama has bumped them above Kofu. Blaublitz Akita’s 2-1 road win at V-Varen Nagasaki further frustrates a Nagasaki side that had high hopes coming into this season.
A vital point earned and now it is on to three teams in the bottom half of the table for FC Ryukyu before they travel to #1 Albirex Niigata at the end of the month. Ryukyu’s schedule for the remainder of May is much more friendlier than leaders Niigata, 3 games in a row against top 6 sides that includes a game with Kyoto, and Kyoto, 2 games in a row against teams in the top 6, which means Ryukyu stands a good chance at creating some distance between those teams below them and possibly catching/overtaking Niigata if the leaders stumble. But before we get to Niigata, it is on to Ehime FC in just two short days. Ryukyu cannot afford to drop points to a team in the relegation zone and must continue to hold serve as they make a push for promotion.
The big thing on everyone’s mind this weekend is how will FC Ryukyu respond to their first loss of the season. Ryukyu’s 8 game undefeated streak was snapped this past Wednesday at Machida with an uninspiring performance where the offense went missing for long stretches of time. Kofu enter Round 10 with a 3 game undefeated streak following a win in the midweek and two previous draws and have had their way with Ryukyu every single time. FC Ryukyu have never earned a single point off of Kofu in the four matches they have played in the J2.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Previous Match Highlights
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu
Ventforet Kofu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 10 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information from FC Ryukyu
Favorable weather is in the forecast as the typhoon that was milling about Okinawa on Friday and Saturday has now moved on.
With the surge of COVID-19 cases in Japan, and a modified State of Emergency here in Okinawa, clubs, including FC Ryukyu, as well as those in the hardest hit areas of Japan, are not allowing visiting fans into games, and possibly no fans at all in some areas. News of “playing behind closed doors” for many of the clubs in the Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo has been floating around the Japanese media today and it looks as if this is where the entire J-League is heading. Be safe and do your part to limit the spread of CV-19 at any match you intend to attend.
FC Ryukyu: Wednesday’s game was a let down for many of the Ryukyu faithful as it was such a steep drop off in performance by Ryukyu when compared to their first 8 games. There were breakdowns in passing, attacks and communication all over the pitch which led to the drubbing at the hands of Zelvia. Basically, nothing worked all night. Ryukyu has relied heavily on defense and the strength of their goalkeeping throughout the year but when that too failed, Ryukyu were done in.
We’ve discussed on several occasions for how Ryukyu utilize crosses from the fullbacks and midfielders to score goals. Though they tried mightily do conduct the same tactic at Zelvia, Zelvia was able to sure up the back line with up to 5 defenders at a time which restricted the runs of any of the Ryukyu attackers. It didn’t help that some runs weren’t even being made to get onto the end of crosses by Ryukyu, and it also didn’t help that when they did make these runs they were often missed by the player in possession. There were far to many lateral and backwards passes on Wednesday with no real thrust made on net by the offense.
Higuchi kept the same lineup from the win over Verdy the previous weekend but did use all 5 substitutes in an attempt to change up the flow of the game. Obviously it didn’t pay off and now Higuchi and Ryukyu are faced with enacting some sort of squad rotation for the Kofu match as some players looked tired at the end of the Machida game. It starts near the top as Kazaki Nakagawa has finally featured for the first time all season and with a drop in the play from Ikeda this week, it might be a good time to see what Nakagawa can add to the attack from the start of a game.
There shouldn’t be any changes to the back four though Numata could definitely use a breather. That means Higuchi should deviate from his normal stance of dressing 4 forwards, Abe, Uehara, Akamine and Shimizu, and consider dressing Motegi (MF) and possibly Reo Yamashita (LB) to spell the tired legs of our players. Ryukyu gambled at Zelvia by sticking with the lineup they’ve played all season and it simply didn’t pay off. Now they need to adjust slightly in the short time between games so as to avoid fatigue, burnout and risk of injury to some of the senior players in the squad.
In any event, what is needed is a massive injection of offense. Abe continues to execute the hold up play that makes him a vital cog in the Ryukyu offense, but isn’t getting the service a striker of his quality deserves. Kofu has scored 6 goals over their last 3 games and while the defense and Taguchi need to regain a bit of the confidence that was lost this past round, the offense needs to switch on and carry the load for Ryukyu this game.
Ventforet Kofu: Kofu enter this round on a slight upward trajectory compared to Ryukyu who are attempting to arrest their recent slide in the midweek. Kofu have an impressive four wins from four over Ryukyu in their recent history. Kofu was the side that ended Ryukyu’s home undefeated streak in 2019 and have outscored Ryukyu 10-3 in all the games played between the two sides.
Kofu started the year fast by drawing once and then winning three in a row. Then they ran into some tougher competition in Machida Zelvia and V-Varen Nagasaki where they lost twice in a row. They got back on track with two consecutive draws with Giravanz Kitakyushu and Matsumoto Yamaga FC before grabbing their first win in a month when they beat SC Sagamihara on Wednesday.
Kofu faced many of the same problems that Ryukyu did in their match with Machida with their attack being completely snuffed out. They allowed a quick goal to Nagasaki before pulling one back on a nice back post set piece but after ringing the post a few times, Kofu allowed Nagasaki to score from a set piece near the end of the game. Kofu took the lead over Kitakyushu on a fast break where Izumisawa rounded the keeper but returned the favor to Kitakyushu by allowing them to execute their own fast break leading to the equalizer. Kofu came close a few times to netting the winner but either hit the post or narrowly missed the target from close range.
In the rain soaked match at Yamaga, Kofu found themselves down early but equalized in the 16th minute and followed it up with another excellent back post header from a set piece. They then added a third goal just four minutes later. Everything was looking good while leading 3-1 but some panicky defending led to a Yamaga goal and then it was Kofu’s turn to have their keeper rounded on a fast break where Kunimoto Suzuki grabbed his third goal of the game which resulted in a draw. The two first half goals by Kofu were all they needed to swipe aside Sagamihara in the midweek.
While the box scores may indicate Kofu have turned a corner and are headed in the right direction, if we take a close look at the last five games there is a bit of pattern that may boost Ryukyu’s chances. The losses were suffered at the hands of two teams currently in the top half of the table with each of the draws were come from behind where Kofu allowed their opponents back into the match. SC Sagamihara sit near the bottom of the table so that is in line with the results that Kofu have achieved to date. But the script for this match reads much like the past match at Zelvia for Ryukyu so it may provide a little confidence to Kofu.
4.Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Defend the left, but watch the right on quick counters. Likelihood 3. A vast majority of Kofu’s attacks flow through the left side of their offense, primarily Izumisawa. He has orchestrated many of the crosses, or has taken part in the build up play, that have led to Kofu’s goals. When on the counter attack Kofu streak quickly down the right so Numata is going to have fitness test on Sunday if Kofu breakout of any Ryukyu press. It will also require the CBs and MFs to keep a close eye on their marks as those players drift towards the back post, when Kofu is in possession down the left, as this is their signature goal these days.
2. Take the attack of life support and give it a jolt with a defibrillator. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu have scored 4 goals in their last 4 games but have been shutout twice in that time. We really need to get Abe firing again and that means better passing in the attacking end and acting like more of a threat across all three attacking lanes. Perhaps Nakagawa can breathe some life into the side, especially as the Ryukyu last line of defense was so easily penetrated last round.
3. Play like you’re the second-best team in the league, because you are. Likelihood 3. It’s all about confidence right now. May have lost it for a bit but it is time to regain that swagger that netted us five wins in a row and eight games undefeated. Let’s brush off the recent loss and get back to winning football.
5. Prediction
Considering that Kofu haven’t scored less than 2 goals in any game against Ryukyu but just once, and with their recent goal scoring outbursts, coupled with Ryukyu’s goal scoring drought and overall poor record against Kofu, it is hard to tip Ryukyu as winners this week. Hoping for a better outcome but not making the same mistake I did in the midweek to a similar type of opponent. Kofu win 2-1. Season Record 5-1-3.
6. Round 10 in J2
Times Listed are in JST
The lone Saturday game should be a good one. (1) Albirex Niigata, fresh off their last minute equalizer, travel to a resurgent (16) Ehime FC who haven’t lost since their managerial change. (3) Kyoto Sanga, (4) Jubilo Iwata and (5) Zweigen Kanazawa, and to some extent, (6) Ventforet Kofu have favorable matchups to exploit the promotion race.
It will be (22) Matsumoto Yamaga FC hosting (13) Thespakusatsu Gunma on the free J-League broadcast this round.
As Ryukyu near the quarter mark of the season there are still some questions for which we need answers. Mainly, can the offense get going? As noted earlier it will be interesting to see how Ryukyu respond to their first setback of the season against a team that has always had the better of Ryukyu, so let’s hope for a positive response on Sunday.
FC Ryukyu travel to Machida Zelvia on Wednesday for their first of four midweek fixtures in 2021. FC Ryukyu have failed to beat Zelvia in their last eight meetings managing only 1 win and 2 draws in the 10 games these teams have played since entering the J3 back in 2014. The next big test for Ryukyu will be finding the right mix of squad rotation and defeating an opponent who has always had your number.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Match Day 8 Highlights
Team Previews
FC Machida Zelvia
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Round 9 in J2
Conclusion
1.Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from the Club
A very pleasant evening to watch football.
It looks like visiting FC Ryukyu fans will be able to attend. Please not that there is no advance entry to hand banners.
FC Machida Zelvia: Zelvia have failed to win any of their home games this season and to be quiet honest, look a far better side when playing on the road compared to playing at home. Prior to the match at Nagasaki this weekend, Zelvia had only managed 1 goal in their previous four games. Zelvia seem to yo-yo between strong performances and very tepid ones. Many people viewed Zelvia as this seasons dark horse with the caveat that it would be their defending that lets them down. Unfortunately for Zelvia, they have been without the strike duo of Chong Tese and Dudu as Tese has picked up an injury that will see him miss at least 4 weeks with Dudu just completing his 14 day quarantine at the J-League bubble. I am not sure how quickly he will be incorporated into the squad but it seems likely that Dudu will get some playing time this Wednesday if he is fit.
Over their last five games Mito have won two matches while losing the other three. As mentioned earlier, the wins came on the road at Kofu and Nagasaki with losses occurring to Mito Hollyhock, Kanazawa and Kyoto Sanga. Mito found themselves in an early hole at Mito when two wind aided balls ended up allowing the hosts to jump out to a 2-0 lead by halftime. The final goal of that game was after a Zelvia turnover sprung Nakayama in the counterattack to which he finished superbly. At Kofu Zelvia looked much better and scored the games only goal in the third minute. Zelvia had control for most of this game with Kofu offering only about 20 minutes of any action in the Zelvia end.
Following that strong performance Zelvia looked dominant against Kanazawa but were unable to find the back of the net. All those missed chances ended up costing Zelvia as they were done in by an own goal in the 89th minute and went on to lose 1-0. The Zelvia defense had their hands full against Kyoto but still allowed Zelvia to stay in the game after they surrendered the lone goal of the match in the first half. Then, everything seemed to change at Nagasaki this week.
Ranko Popovic switched back to a 4-4-2 from the previous weeks 4-4-1-1 and Zelvia got off to a fast start once more. Two goals by Kaina Yoshio pushed Zelvia out front before a Hasegawa goal just two minutes after the second Yoshio goal put the match out of reach for Nagasaki. Once more Zelvia looked a different side when leaving the friendly confines of the Machida GION stadium, and though the offense went missing for a long stretch for Zelvia, they were able to breakout in a big way this weekend. Adding a good attacking player like Dudu into the mix is sure to help. But Zelvia, like Ryukyu, rely on some older veterans to prop the team up and they too will have to contend with some squad rotation this week.
FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu own a rather poor record against Machida Zelvia having won only once in their past ten matches, and that win came all the way back in 2014 during FC Ryukyu’s inaugural season in the J3. In the six games where Ryukyu have traveled to Machida, they’ve been outscored 11-4. Last season, Ryukyu lost the opening fixture 4-2 thanks to four first half goals by Zelvia. The score line was only brought close by a Zelvia own goal and late strike by Takuma Abe after the game was well out of hand. During the curtain closer for the 2020 season Ryukyu were defeated 1-0 at home by Zelvia in a very uninspiring performance.
But, this is a season unlike any other with Ryukyu putting to rest many of the ghosts that have haunted them from past seasons. The strength of this club is their defense as the offense has yet to get on track this year. That is not to say they are struggling for goals as everyone is chipping in these days, it’s just not at the level we’ve come to expect from a club predicated on attacking football. Abe has done so well this year in all facets of the game and it would be great to see him back on the score sheet after a slight absence these past three weeks.
I think Ryukyu have benefited greatly from a more relaxed schedule this year compared to last season and it has allowed many of the veterans the recovery time between matches that they sorely missed in 2020. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how Higuchi conducts the squad rotation with three games inside of eight days. I wouldn’t expect many changes, but utilizing substitutes earlier and possibly giving a run out to Motegi, Makito Uehara, Shinya Uehara and Akamine needs to be done to keep the squad fresh.
These next two fixtures are massive for Ryukyu if they wish to keep the field at bay. Their current lead over third placed Kyoto Sanga FC is just six points and Kyoto are starting to generate some serious momentum. Defeating an opponent that you have a historically poor track record against is the next step that the Ryukyu needs to make on their way to 80 points.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Short passes in the Zelvia box. Likelihood 2. Zelvia are not the most impressive defensive unit in the league and a single goal maybe all that is needed for Ryukyu to see out a win on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean they can take this opponent lightly as Zelvia have bested Ryukyu nearly every single time. Zelvia have conceded from crosses this season, but are far more susceptible to the short passes in and around the box. Ryukyu will need a strong performance out of Ren Ikeda and Takuma Abe as they can wreak havoc on the Zelvia back line with penetrating runs and quick changes in direction when in the oppositions box.
2. Play to your strengths. Likelihood 4. A short week on the road could mean a low scoring affair, a situation that Ryukyu are very comfortable in, and another defensive masterclass by the CB pairing of Chinen and Okazaki, along with Taguchi in net, is exactly what Ryukyu need this match. Zelvia’s offense wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders this year, but it is starting to generate some thrust. Blunting the Zelvia assault will allow FC Ryukyu to continue to play the style of football they’ve become accustomed to this season.
3. Finding the right mix in the squad rotation. Likelihood 2. Higuchi may not make any changes to this side for this match but that could have an effect later on this week when Ryukyu return home to face Kofu. Ryukyu currently roster four forwards each match so allowing Akamine to start this week may not be a bad idea. Yu and Koki Kazama seem to rotate fairly regularly and hopefully Ichimaru can spell Uesato for longer stretches over these next two games. We should not tinker with the current CB pair but Yong Jick coming in for either of the central defenders so as to keep them fresh is the smart move. Makito Uehara could provide some relief to Tanaka but it will be interesting to see how Higuchi addresses the left back position. Numata will almost certainly need a break these next few games and that means it comes down to either Fukui or Reo Yamashita, who looked good in his lone appearance in the J-Elite League last month.
5. Prediction
Zelvia have been shut out three times this year while Ryukyu have five clean sheets. Zelvia have hit the three goal plateau twice this season compared to FC Ryukyu’s one. Any changes to the Ryukyu squad might have some consequences, and though it is a bold move to predict a win for FC Ryukyu, who haven’t defeated Zelvia in well over seven seasons, that is what I am going to do. 2-1 win for Ryukyu in the midweek. Season Record 5-1-2.
6. Match Day 8 in J2
All Times Listed are JST
(1) Albirex Niigata will look to retain the top spot for another week when they travel to (10) Tochigi SC who are currently on an unbeaten run of 5 games. (3) Kyoto Sanga FC and (4) Jubilo Iwata will continue to chip away at the leaders with favorable matchups at (11) Tokyo Verdy and home to (15) Omiya Ardija respectively. Other interesting matches this round include (5) Zweigen Kanazawa hosting (8) Blaublitz Akita and the resurgent (22) Ehime FC hosting (16) Renofa Yamaguchi FC. It’s not quite time to push the panic button for (12) V-Varen Nagasaki, but another performance like this past weekend will at least warrant removing the safety cover for the panic button.
It is FC Ryukyu’s turn to appear on the free J-league International YouTube broadcast so please tune in and enjoy from around the world. Or at the very least, use a VPN if you live in Japan and you do not have a DAZN account. Click the link below the infographic to get the YouTube page for the match.
Well strap yourselves in for this one as FC Ryukyu will need to exorcise some serious demons to retain one of the two promotion slots in J2. It has been nothing but disappoint for Ryukyu when they play Zelvia so it will be really encouraging to see them net any points away from home on a short week. A win would show that this team has really turned aa corner in their development and provide a massive boost to the overall morale of the team.
FC Ryukyu are off to a dream start in 2021 but much like 2019, JEF United Chiba will look to put a quick stop to Ryukyu’s momentum. I certainly did not see Ryukyu achieving four wins from four at the start of the season and was rather content when they had won three in a row to open the campaign. I think Ryukyu took advantage of a strong V-Varen Nagasaki side that are simply struggling to put all the pieces together at the moment but, Ryukyu also looked really good in doing so. However, JEF is another set of obstacles altogether as of all the teams in J2, JEF really has Ryukyu’s number.
Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 4 Recaps
Team Previews
JEF United Chiba
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
No complaints here. Looks like a lovely day for football.
JEF United Chiba: Where to begin? A team that has a long history? Yes. A team that has a recent history of success against FC Ryukyu? Yes. An organization and fan base with lofty expectations due to that lengthy history but always seem to fall short of expectations? Yes. Has JEF looked good in the 4 games leading up to this match? Not particularly. Can we say the same thing every time leading up to FC Ryukyu facing off with JEF, and yet Ryukyu still manage to lose? Unfortunately yes!
JEF are quite possibly the longest running joke in J2 for some of their past antics but whenever they play Ryukyu all of that is thrown out the window. A side by side comparison shows us that JEF owns roughly the same amount of possession in their past 4 games that Ryukyu’s opponents achieved (54%). However, FC Ryukyu are out shooting JEF by nearly 4 shots per game with at least 2 more of those shots being on target.
JEF has begun 2021 with one win, two draws and one loss under second year manager Jong-hwan Moon. When JEF opened the season at home against Kofu they displayed a bit of lackluster defending that allowed Kofu the freedom of movement and space to grab the early opener. JEF responded with a goal in the second half when Keita Buwanika rose high above the Kofu defense to bury a header. JEF then conceded a late PK but the goalie was able to stop the shot to keep the score line level. JEF were able to grab the early lead the following week at Ehime when defender Daisuke Suzuki sent a thunderous header past the Ehime keeper. But JEF allowed Ehime to hang around all game and once again the defense let them down when they needed them the most.
On match day 3 Blaublitz Akita came to Chiba and absolutely put it on JEF winning 2-0. JEF missed some chances during their counter attacks but they had no idea on how to break down the Akita defense despite the lopsided possession totals favoring JEF 71/39. JEF grabbed their first win of 2021 when they traveled to Matsumoto Yamaga FC by eking out a 1-0 victory in some rather poor conditions.
Averaging less than a goal a game, JEF are not a particularly strong team when you look at their results to date. They’ve only played one game this year when they had less than 50% possession but they are not doing much when they do have the ball. Against Ehime and Akita they were able to muster 10 total shots in each contest but were held to 5 against the stronger Kofu and Yamaga sides. JEF neither controls games or imposes their will on their opposition. They simply hope for breakthroughs to put themselves level or into the lead.
There is little doubt that JEF will want to start fast against Ryukyu by controlling a majority of the possession and chances, but this plays directly into Ryukyu’s strength as they are content on striking teams on the counter. And I am not sure JEF has the firepower to catch up to Ryukyu if they push the score line above 1 goal on Saturday.
FC Ryukyu: The Ryukyu match with Nagasaki was bittersweet. First, Ryukyu looked good allowing the game to come to them and hitting Nagasaki on the counter. Second, they defended well as a unit. But in the end, Ryukyu lost Abe to injury, and have no idea on his status, which could derail the momentum Ryukyu have built up in their first four games.
A lot of talk coming out of the club by the players and manager emphasize that they are not really focused on trying to control games with large amounts of possession like they did last year. Instead, Ryukyu are content on hitting their opponents with counter attacks. This is where Abe will be missed the most as his holdup play as an outlet valve for the team has been phenomenal this year. A lot of Ryukyu counterattacks started and ended with Abe. I am not sure who will step up in his place as he is not easily replaceable. Shintaro Shimizu is the likely candidate as he is the youngest of the 3 remaining strikers that Higuchi dresses each week. There is also an outside chance that Higuchi moves Ikeda into the FWD role but that would mean dressing a new midfielder for the first time all season. And Ryukyu do not have many choices at the moment.
Ramon is likely out a few more weeks while he deals with a soft tissue injury and Nakagawa may not be match fit yet. The only healthy options are Yu Tomidokoro or Shunsuke Motegi. But neither is a true CAM so I think Higuchi needs to stick with Ikeda at CAM and make the adjustment at FWD. There are the remote possibilities of of swapping Shimizu and Ikeda, bringing Tanaka up to RM – pushing Koya to CAM – and starting Makito Uheara at RB. But Higuchi could just as easily dress Hitomi if he thinks that neither Shintaro, Akamine, or Uehara can withstand the rigors of 60 minutes in the starting role.
Ryukyu should remain unchanged behind the front four with Uesato, Koki, Numata, Tanaka, Chinen, and Okazaki. These guys have been great at closing down shooting lanes, stifling the opposition’s attack, and will once again be called upon to do so with what may turn out to be a muted offensive performance by Ryukyu on Saturday. And yet, there are even more injuries that Ryukyu need to contend with.
Dany Carvajal recently went under the knife to repair some stress fractures to his lower leg and will be away from the team for 3-4 months. This means that Tsumita becomes the backup to Taguchi and I hope that he can push Taguchi the way Dany did in practice as we cannot afford for Taguchi to become complacent between the sticks when there are some winnable games on the horizon.
The JEF United Chiba game doesn’t represent a ‘must win’ game in the true sense. It is more for the Ryukyu psyche than anything. JEF are one of six teams – Iwata being the other but Ryukyu have already beat them this year – that FC Ryukyu have never defeated during their time in the J2. You’ve probably heard me say this on a few occasions, to include the fact that they have never scored a single goal against JEF in their entire history, and that is what makes this game so important to Ryukyu. Even more so when you consider that Higuchi’s goal for the season is 80 points for the club. While Ryukyu are a long way off from that total right now, and in spite of the fact of JEF sitting well below Ryukyu in the standings, any points earned in this game will fall squarely inside the Points Over Expectation Table.
It isn’t always about defeating an opponent that is stronger than you on paper that determines the strength of a side. Sometimes it is overcoming the mental hurdles and past failures that can make all the difference. And while that variable isn’t easily quantifiable, it is vitally important for Ryukyu’s overall success.
4.Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. It doesn’t matter how JEF have performed the past 4 rounds. It doesn’t matter how Ryukyu have performed the past 4 rounds. Prepare better than JEF. Execute better than JEF. Show the mental resolve to dig this one out. Overcome the challenges that have plagued us in the past and slay this beast once and for all.
5.Prediction
I do not expect Ryukyu to go out there and light up JEF, as they’ve never done that before despite JEF doing some pretty calamitous stuff throughout the years. Predicting a win in spite of the records is even bolder but that is what I am going to do as this isn’t the same team from 2019 or 2020. 1-0 in favor of FC Ryukyu. It won’t be pretty but it will be effective. Season Record 2-0-2.
6. Match Day 5 in J2
Times are listed in JST
(3) Ventforet Kofu hosting (10) FC Machida Zelvia and (8) Montedio Yamagata against (9) Fagiano Okayama stand out as the two fixtures with the most top half, and promotion, implications this round. Not to be outdone, (4) Zweigen Kanazawa and (5) Blaublitz Akita, will look to continue their hot starts to 2021. This will be Akita’s first home game of the 2021 season and quite possibly their toughest fixture to date. Elsewhere there are some bottom of the table clashes that could have big impacts for these clubs late in the year.
No J2 action this weekend as the J-League International YouTube channel will broadcast a Levain Cup match between Tokushima Vortis and Oita Trinita.
In 2019, it was JEF who ended Ryukyu’s unbeaten run of 6 games to open the season. Then they defeated Ryukyu to open the 2020 season. You know all the history between these two clubs. Well then…
FC Ryukyu have equaled their longest ever winning streak in J2 with their 4th win from 4 this past weekend. Ryukyu now sit second in the table, level on points, with Albirex Niigata and have looked a far better side than we’ve seen these past few seasons. The loss continues to add to the struggles of Nagasaki but I wouldn’t count this team out just yet as there is still 38 rounds to play.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion
1. Match Highlights
2. Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu Mid Fielders Ren Ikeda & Koya Kazama: It was to hard to chose either one so I will go with a joint man of the match for round 4. Ikeda opened the scoring on a spectacular one time volley, and then added his 3rd goal of the campaign which ultimately turned out to be the winner for FC Ryukyu. Ren was set up on both of his goals by Koya Kazama with the second assist being the best of the bunch. Koya received the ball deep in the Nagasaki box, and could have rightly tried a shot from that range but instead opted to send a pass all the way back through the box to the streaking Ikeda who buried the goal. These two could have made it a hat-trick in both departments if Ikeda had buried a wide open chance early in the first half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. The entire team played well under the Nagasaki pressure.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. And that they were. The only miss that stands out was the Koki Kazama shot that rocked the crossbar and would have put Ryukyu up by 2 goals early. But since Ryukyu have been saved a by the crossbar a few times this year, this stuff evens it out.
4. Talking Points
1. Doing more with less. FC Ryukyu were once again out possessed by their opponent but were able to bend, not break, when Nagasaki were attacking. Ryukyu needed to be clinical in their limited opportunities and they did just that. So far, Ryukyu have been playing a majority of their games this year with a lead so they haven’t been forced to chase a game which could possibly expose the back line. Though it needs to be said, Ryukyu have been very good at allowing the game to come to them instead of attempting to press.
2. There were a few nervy moments early on. Nagasaki’s attack was a little too narrow at the start and our central midfielders did really well to crowd out the top of the box when Nagasaki pushed deep into the Ryukyu end of the field. Nagasaki had two really good chances in the first half with one shot barely missing and the other being a wasted opportunity when Kato went at it alone instead of passing to one of the wide-open players on either side. The lone goal by Nagasaki came after Ryukyu had established a 3-goal advantage and there wasn’t much more Taguchi could have done as the ball bounced through a lot of traffic before Edigar Junio redirected it into the far corner. On that note, Junio made an immediate impact on the game when he came on in the second half.
3. The victory comes at a high price. Takuma Abe went down awkwardly in the 80th minute when he went sliding in for a cross by Numata. Abe’s left knee dug into the turf which then made it look like his hip was either hyperextended or he did some sort of damage to his lower back. He was forced to crawl over the touch line before briefly returning to his feet to make his way to the stretcher. Abe was in serious discomfort and there is no telling what the exact injury is or how long he will be out until the club releases a statement. It is a big loss for this team since Abe adds more than just goals for the team. His hold up play has been excellent this year and a lot of scoring chances begin with Abe getting the ball to one of the midfielders in space. It will come down to either Shintaro Shimizu or Takuya Hitomi starting at FWD with the veterans Akamine and Uehara spelling either of those two. There is one other option. Ren Ikeda could move into the FWD role like he did last year when both Abe and Uehara were out injured but he is not the same player in that role as Abe and that would leave a void in our central midfield as there has been no sign of Nakagawa up to this point.
5. Prediction
I was way off with my 2-1 victory for Nagasaki. Do not mind that at all. Season Record 2-0-2.
Ryukyu were not the only side with a shock win this round as SC Sagamihara earned their first ever win – while also scoring for the first time this season- when they defeated Omiya Ardija. Zweigen, Jubilo and Mito all thumped their opponents this round and Akita continues to pile up points in a strong opening act to their inaugural J2 season.
7. Conclusion
Heading into this round I said this would be a statement game for FC Ryukyu and they certainly answered the call. It is still to early to jump to any conclusions but the signs are encouraging. Ryukyu are facing a bit of an uphill battle when they travel to JEF United Chiba this week as it will likely be the first time where there are multiple changes to the starting 11 due to the Abe injury. While Nagasaki represented its own unique set of challenges for Ryukyu, JEF has a completely different set of obstacles to overcome. Ryukyu have never earned a single point off of JEF and they have yet to find the back of the net in the four games these teams have played. Heading into this match without your best forward is not ideal so we will now see how Ryukyu responds in the face of adversity.
Ryukyu were forced once more to play in some rather poor conditions, but it wasn’t rain that they were fighting this time, it was some strong wind. Both teams struggled with possession and chances yesterday as they tried to navigate the high winds from both ends of the pitch. However, it was Ryukyu who came out on top when they used the shifting winds to their advantage in the second half. Ryukyu have now opened the season with 3 wins in a row, and sit near the top of the J2 table for the first time since the start of 2019.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Highlights
2.Man of the Match
Takuma Abe FWD FC Ryukyu: Abe scored his second goal in as many games and was the catalyst behind the second Ryukyu goal on Sunday. Abe was quiet in the first half while the Ryukyu attack was struggling for possession but asserted himself on his goal when he out hustled the Gunma defender to get to the loose ball and struck the ball on a bounce with his left foot. It was a great effort to get into a position to score and provide the spark that led to the FC Ryukyu breakthrough. He almost added a second from what would have been a spectacular goal when he changed directions mid air to get to a header that clanked off the post, but luckily fell right to the streaking Akamine who slotted home FC Ryukyu’s second goal.
3. Review of the Keys to Victoryfor FC Ryukyu
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu had to battle some poor wind conditions early on and were unable to get anything going in the first half. However, they did finish strong with 2 second half goals, also the first time they’ve scored in the second half of any game this season, to see out the win.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. Nope, but that is OK. It was our talisman and one of our best, Abe, who propelled this side to a victory.
4.Talking Points from Match Day 3
1. The wind was a major factor yesterday. Neither team really knew how to play under those conditions, either playing into or against the wind, which severely impacted both sides ability to generate or sustain any possession and attacks. Ryukyu made the right choice to play “with” the wind in the second half, though according to Higuchi, Gunma made it quite difficult on Ryukyu with their pressing play as Ryukyu couldn’t utilize the long ball in the prevailing winds to break that press.
You also saw the hesitation on the part of the goal keepers when balls were sent into the box. They were unable to fully commit to balls in the air, and there were plenty of examples where the flight path of the ball changed direction at the last second. Gunma nearly scored when a shot, that may have been sent high and wide under normal conditions, ended up becoming a very dangerous cross that Taguchi was able to get to the back post to stop. Abe’s goal can also be attributed to the wind as the Gunma keeper hesitated to come out, got a slight touch to the ball, but all that did was drop the ball into a dangerous area for Abe to pounce on. Granted, the darting runs into the box by both Ikeda and Kiyoatake probably kept the keeper back slightly, as well as disrupted his movement when he did decide to come off his line.
It was one of those games where Ryukyu came out on top of the first half by not conceding a goal and then played well enough through the elements in the second half to grab the win.
2. A change to the lineup. Yu Tomidokoro made his debut at CM in place of Koki Kazama, but he was replaced at half time by Koki. Not sure what to make of the move, and it was a difficult opening half for Ryukyu so we couldn’t really see anything from Yu. Assuming that Higuchi is looking at things from the perspective of, “if isn’t broke, don’t fix it,” then we should not expect any real changes to the starting 11 or reserves on Saturday.
5. Prediction
I predicted a 2-1 win for Ryukyu, and it it could have been had Gunma not hit the post in the first half. Still, a win nonetheless. Season Record 2-0-1.
6.Match Day 3 in J2
Niigata and Ryukyu remain unbeaten and atop of the J2 table for another week. Iwata grabbed their first win of 2021, Omiya and Kyoto was called off after some heavy rains (rescheduled for the 24th of March), and there were some surprising results from the newly promoted sides as well as Ehime FC against V-Varen Nagasaki. I think most of us expected the Yamagata and Yamaga, Verdy and Zelvia, matches to end in draws.
Job done, 9 points from 9 and now it is time to turn our attention to V-Varen Nagasaki this week. The fast start by Ryukyu mean they enjoy a nice 7-9 point cushion over the bottom four sides in the league. But anything could happen over the course of the next few weeks to shrink that total. Still, it is better to be in this position with these points compared to some of our opponents at the bottom.
FC Ryukyu didn’t win their third game last season until Match Day 12, and they never had a winning streak greater than 2 games in a row that year. You would have to go back to the start of the 2019 campaign to find a winning streak of greater than 3 games, and we all remember how FC Ryukyu started out with 4 wins from 4, followed by 2 draws, which also provided a nice buffer from relegation that year. I think we can also recall how we couldn’t buy a win on the road until the final month and half of that season, as well as the mid-season collapse that seems to be coming a regular occasion for Ryukyu.
Right now, all of us Ryukyu fans need to be enjoying the moment for what it is, a string of great results based mainly on good defense, goal keeping, and a bit of luck. That is not meant to take anything away from what the side has achieved, but we are not even at the quarter mark of the season and shouldn’t be focusing on anything other than survival at this point. But man it has been great and I hope the streak can continue on Saturday as well as through the following weeks.
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