Tokushima Vortis v FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu managed to keep their undefeated streak in tact (4-games) when they drew 0-0 at Tokushima Vortis on Saturday night. It was an impressive performance from Ryukyu, Dany Carvajal in particular, as they were limited to just 30% possession with just a couple of shots on frame. But deep down I know every Ryukyu fan is feeling somewhat disappointed at the result. Especially since many other fixtures this round didn’t end favorably for FC Ryukyu. As I said in the preview this week, FC Ryukyu tying games is simply not going to get it done.

Match Highlights

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Don’t go to sleep on Vortis. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu put in a really good shift. It is just a shame they were only rewarded with a draw. The team defended well from top to bottom and were just unlucky to come away with the win.

Match Day 28 Takeaways

1. We all knew that it was going to be a tall task to net all three points at Vortis on Saturday. But there were signs and indicators that it could be done. Vortis do not score a lot of goals, neither does Ryukyu, and Vortis have a similar playing style to Ryukyu (under Kina not Nacho) by producing very little from loads of possession. It really did feel like we were watching a replay of many Ryukyu games from earlier this season when Vortis would constantly pass back and forth to their central defenders and goal keeper. Vortis struggle to break other teams down and though Ryukyu didn’t see much of the ball, and only had to worry a couple of times Saturday night, there was never a feeling of dread when Vortis was passing the ball around.

In a game where only 1 goal was needed, Ryukyu couldn’t get there. Abe had a shot from a rebound cleared off the line by a Vortis defender who just happened to be in the right spot with the shot at just the right height for him to clear. And Shinya Uehara couldn’t find the placement from a wide open spot inside the box at point blank range. Conversely, Vortis had a few good chances with their best being their last when they hit the post near the end of the game.

2. There were a few changes to the Ryukyu lineup this week. Okazaki returned to CB which forced Omori back to the bench. Hitomi took over the right mid-filed duties for Tanaka who was surprisingly absent from the roster this week. Takayuki Fukumura returned to the squad for the first time in six weeks to feature as a substitute. And Ryukyu fans got a look at their recent signing, Sadam Sulley, when he came on for Kanai in the second half. Vortis did everything they could to choke the life out of the Ryukyu attack and despite all the height in the Ryukyu lineup, they couldn’t generate a single corner kick to at least stress the Vortis defense.

3. Dany Carvajal was on fire. That is now two (2) clean sheets from his last four (4) games. Ryukyu only managed three (3) in the twenty four (24) starts for Taguchi. Dany has featured a total of five (5) times and Taguchi did have one stretch of two (2) games in a row with consecutive clean sheets but I know we are seeing the quality that Dany brings to the Ryukyu GK position. Something we missed during Kina’s time in charge.

4. Old man shouting at the sky moment. It was amazing that both teams walked away from this match without incurring any yellow, or red, cards. On paper it looks as if the referee was ‘letting these two teams play.’ But I am sure Vortis fans were just as flummoxed as Ryukyu fans when it came to some of the missed calls or blatant no calls on Saturday. One of the most egregious no calls was the foul by one of the Vortis players on I think Kanai where he came up the back of his leg so fiercely that it tore his sock. Yet the ref just simply awarded a spot kick. I don’t know, but have a strong feeling, that you either have really good, or really bad, refereeing in the J-League.

Round 28 in J2

It has been a longtime since we’ve seen multiple games in one round called off due to CV-19 outbreaks and I fear that we could see more of them being called off moving forward with this particular variant of CV-19. It is one thing to try and prepare for games when dealing with injuries but now teams will have to contend with a heightened CV-19 threat that we haven’t seen since 2020. This will have some massive impacts for every club in the entire J-League. Even more so for FC Ryukyu who have to make another eight (8) road trips this year.

Saturday Night was the night for upsets around J2 as (4) V-Varen Nagasaki and (5) Fagiano Okayama took down (3) Vegalta Sendai and (1) Albirex Niigata while playing on the road. Then there was (20) Thespakusatsu Gunma’s win over (10) Montedio Yamagata and the 0-0 draws for (18) Blaublitz Akita and (22) FC Ryukyu. The only home team to find some modicum of success on Saturday was (16) Tochigi SC who defeated (17) Renofa Yamaguchi leading to these two teams swapping positions in the table.

The losses by Sendai and Niigata allowed (1) Yokohama FC to vault into the top slot after their 1-0 win at (11) Tokyo Verdy. The other game on Sunday saw (6) Roasso Kumamoto score three (3) goals at home for the first time all season, which was 1/3 of the total goals they scored at home this year, in a crushing defeat over (13) Zweigen Kanazawa.

Conclusion

One step forward, two steps back. I may feel disappointed that it was only a draw but it was a point when Ryukyu desperately need points. But it came on a night when Gunma won and Omiya drew that actually widened the point gap between Ryukyu and the three teams above them. The only ground that Ryukyu made up was on Iwate who lost to Zelvia. Ryukyu are now four, five, and six points behind the 19th, 20th and 21st teams in the table. Have to learn and build from that result and get ready for one of the best, if not the best, road teams of J2 in Roasso Kumamoto.

(15) Tokushima Vortis v (22) FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu has fifteen (15) matches left to earn at least twenty-three (23) points. Considering that they’ve only earned twenty (20) points from their first twenty-seven (27) games it feels like a herculean task. Ryukyu no longer have the luxury of time as the season is winding down, the fixture schedule is getting tougher, and relegation is looming. This is the first of three (3) matches in the remaining schedule for FC Ryukyu in which they’ve never won, never taken a single point, in enemy territory. And oh yes, Ryukyu have nine (9) road fixtures left to play this season.

Match Day Weather Forecast & Information

Partly cloudy with little chance of rain. Rather pleasant conditions to play under.

Click>>>> Match Day 28 Information from Tokushima Vortis

Team Previews

Tokushima Vortis: It is strange that Vortis have just two (2) more wins than FC Ryukyu this season. But they are far and away the league leaders when it comes to draws. Fifteen (15) to be exact. Vortis have played to a 0-0 score line five (5) times, a 1-1 score line seven (7) times, 2-2 twice (2), and 3-3 in their first meeting with FC Ryukyu this season. Though they have one less goal scored on the season than FC Ryukyu they are thirteen (13) points ahead of them in the standings.

The main reason Vortis has been able to earn all those draws is their water tight defense and goalkeeping. Vortis have surrendered the fewest goals in J2 this season and it is crazy to think that FC Ryukyu, a team who struggles to score multiple goals, is the only team to ever score three (3) goals in a game against Vortis this year. But that game was played in Okinawa with the return fixture taking place in Tokushima where Vortis have surrendered just nine (9) goals in thirteen (13) matches.

Vortis have a good record against teams near the relegation zone by winning twice (2), drawing four (4) times with just a single (1) loss. Whereas the loss and preponderance of draws occur on the road to these teams, Vortis has never lost at home to any of them and has shut them out a total of five (5) times in seven (7) games. A stat that doesn’t bode well for FC Ryukyu heading into this match.

Vortis are currently on a four (4) game winning streak and should be plenty rested with their match called off last week due to a CV-19 outbreak in the Tokyo Verdy squad. They had consecutive 1-0 victories over Gunma and Kanazawa followed by consecutive 1-1 draws against Kumamoto and Yokohama FC with their last loss coming against Iwate on the road. However, Tokushima has only lost five (5) times this season.

Vortis made a brief change at GK for the Kanazawa and Kumamoto matches but since then Jose Aurelio Suarez has returned to anchor this team. One player who may be dealing with an injury is playmaker Kazuki Nishi who has missed four (4) of the last five (5) matches with only a brief appearance during the Kanazawa game. There is no indication that he is injured but his absence could provide a slight boost to FC Ryukyu on Saturday though Ryukyu will still need to keep an close eye on Shunto Kodama.

FC Ryukyu: A great man (@FLManInJapan) said, “If we are going to save our season, it will be on the backs of our foreign players.” That saying is ringing true these days thanks to the play of Dany Carvajal and Kelvin, prior to his injury. Ryukyu also signed two foreigners the past two weeks, Alex Barrera (MF) and Sadam Sulley (FWD), bringing the squad total to eight (8) foreigners from Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Costa Rica, Spain and Ghana. To my knowledge Sulley is the first ever African player for FC Ryukyu and this is definitely the most foreign players rostered by Ryukyu in my time as a supporter.

I am not sure if Kelvin will return from his injury this match but both Barrera and Sulley may make their debuts this weekend. Both players stand at 190cm which adds some serious height to the FC Ryukyu squad. They won’t have much time to adjust to the J-league if thrown into the fire in order to rejuvenate a sputtering Ryukyu attack but we have little choice these days with our current injury crisis. I think it would make for an interesting pairing in the mid-field if we started Barrera and Van Luan. Van Luan definitely has the disposition you covet in a central midfielder and Barrera is supposedly a box-to-box midfielder, or so I’m told.

Sulley provides the height that Ryukyu currently lack up top with the possible injuries to Noda and Uehara but all I’ve seen about this player are highlights from his time in the top tier of Kosovo so he is a relative unknown commodity. Since Ryukyu made the switch at GK to Dany Carvajal they’ve remained undefeated in three (3) games. As I said last week, Dany is playing some inspired football and is looks up for it every week. I just hope we can get him some offense to turn low scoring games into wins. Omori and Nakagawa are really starting to gel in our central defense which should see them getting consistently stronger as the season reaches its crescendo.

Though there has been some sightings of Yuki Kusano at training this past week he is still probably a few weeks away from making his return. Abe has done well in his return to the lineup but just like last year he is not getting the service a striker of his quality deserves. That doesn’t stop Abe from putting in the hard yards but that work seems to break Abe and we cannot afford to lose anymore players to injury. Expect to see Tanaka in the attack again as Nacho has preferred Makito Uehara at RB. Need one, probably both, of them to start bombing in some crosses to our forwards. Expect to see Ikeda, Kanai, Nakano, Omoto and Takezawa in the lineup if the foreigners are not included which would be the same lineup we deployed against Omiya.

Vortis own the edge over Ryukyu in this series and have hit the three (3) goal mark on three (3) occasions when facing Ryukyu. Ryukyu’s lone win against Vortis came at the start of the 2019 campaign when they were off to a blistering start. A win or draw here would make this the longest undefeated streak for FC Ryukyu this season that hopefully puts them on a trajectory to achieve more success because as they say, “winning is contagious.”

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Don’t go to sleep on Vortis. Likelihood 3. Vortis might not create a ton of chances in the attack and we know they will certainly frustrate our struggling attack, but if we somehow inch out in front, or find ourselves tied late in the game, we must maintain focus. Vortis seems to spring to life in the last quarter of the match, which has happened to be Ryukyu’s kryptonite this year, though not so much lately thanks to the switch at manager.

Round 28 in J2

Up top: Some pretty big games this round with (1) Albirex Niigata hosting (5) Fagiano Okayama and (3) Vegalta Sendai playing at home against (4) V-Varen Nagasaki. (2) Yokohama FC makes a short trip to play (11) Tokyo Verdy who are fresh of an impressive win of Jubilo Iwata in the Emperors Cup for the free broadcast on the J-League International YouTube Channel this week. Click>>>> Tokyo Verdy vs Yokohama FC.

Down Below: The most noteworthy match sees (20) Omiya Ardija versus (18) Blaublitz Akita in a significant 6-pointer. (19) Iwate Grulla Morioka travels south to (8) FC Machida Zelvia and then (21) Thespakusatsu Gunma heads to (10) Montedio Yamagata.

Conclusion

Ryukyu are rapidly approaching a situation where draws will no longer help their current situation as they are in need of massive point gains in short order. It may seem difficult to see where we will get the 20-23 points we need in the remaining fixture list but you have to start somewhere with some rather surprising results. Come on Boys!

The Drop Zone Report #FC琉球

Intro

I want to take a deeper look at the teams possibly facing relegation since we are nearly 2/3 of the way through the 2022 season, points are at a premium, and Ryukyu is entrenched at the bottom of the table. I am by no means a statistician so there could be some flawed math with my approach but this is just a thought experiment designed to see which of the five teams near the drop zone have the toughest, or easiest, remaining schedules as well as what trends we can glean from past results that might predict future performance.

I focused on the five (5) teams at the bottom of the table that are separated by eight (8) points. Granted, the fortunes for any of these teams could change where they to move away from the drop zone, the gap between the relegation zone and safety increases that isolates just a couple of teams, or new teams drop down into this zone.

Current Teams Possibly Facing Relegation

Methods

Winning %: For this category I assigned a value of 1 point for each win a team earned and 0.5 point for each draw. I then divided that number by the total number of games played. For example: Niigata has 16 wins (16) and 6 draws (3) for a total of 19 points, divided by 27 games, to equal a 0.70 winning percentage. I then added the winning percentages of the remaining teams for each of the five teams above and then divided by 15 to reach the average winning percentage for their opponents. Winning percentage, sometimes considered as strength-of-schedule, may not be a particular predictive stat but it does at least give us an idea of what these teams are facing to close out 2022.

Overall Weighted Strength of Opponent: I assigned a numerical value of 22-1 based on current standings in the table. I started with the highest value (22) for the top team, Albirex Niigata, and worked my way down to the lowest team, FC Ryukyu, who were given a value of 1. I then added all the weighted values for each of the opponents for the five teams and divided by 15 (games remaining) to reach this number. I included the total value for each teams opponents in parentheses to the right of the average weighted strength.

Weighted Strength of Opponent Based on Home/Away Games: I created a table where I assigned an extra numerical value for each teams matchups based on their opponents standing in the table and whether the game was going to be played at home or on the road. I did this in order to account for the perceived difficulty in the opponent, location of the match, and to some degree, to incorporate the idea of home field advantage. I then added these totals and divided by the remaining home/away games for each team to reach an average weighted strength of their opponent for the home and away games. Totals for each team are included in parentheses next to the average number. See the chart below.

Average Home/Away Goals Scored/Conceded by Opponent: I divided the number of goals scored, and conceded, for each of the five teams remaining opponents based on the amount of previously played home/away games. I then added the averages for each team, separated by fixture location, and then divided that number by the remaining amount of home, or away, games for each of the five teams to reach this number.

Differences: I took each of the five teams average home and away goals scored and conceded, and subtracted it from the average home, and away goals scored, and conceded, of their opponents to reach this number.

Variables Not Accounted for: I did not look into any teams current injury situation, nor account for players returning to health or future signings. I also didn’t account for things like weather, travel distance, days between matches, kickoff times or recent trends (i.e. last five matches played). I will likely look at recent trends from a five (5) and or ten (10) game snapshot if a second installment of this entry is warranted.

Findings

Right away we can see that it is hard to compare all five teams since FC Ryukyu has two more Away games, and two less Home games, compared to the other four clubs in the table. This throws off the average strength of opponent, both home and away, and the average goals scored/conceded in all categories since they have played more home games and less away games than the others. Perhaps the next time I will look at a different sample size.

I may have also placed to much extra value on the location of the fixture by not taking into account both their opponents records for home and away fixtures, as well as that of the five teams. For instance, it is hard to assume FC Ryukyu has a markedly strong home field advantage over their opponents considering their current home record of 1W7D7L.

Building the table was useful in that it allowed me to see the differences in performance for both home and away games for the teams involved, but more importantly, it showed me some spots in the remaining fixtures where teams will need to exploit their opponents to remove themselves from the drop zone equation. With that, I’ll present some of my thoughts on the findings for each of the five teams below the fixture list table.

(18) Blaublitz Akita: Akita face the lowest combined winning percentage of the five teams I looked at with a favorable run of fixtures over their next seven (7) matches. Maybe. Akita struggles for away goals which could present a challenge during the fixtures at Omiya, Iwate and FC Ryukyu as they all have a stronger goals scored at home average than Akita’s current away goal ratio. But, Akita has conceded far less on the road than these opponents have conceded at home.

While I could easily see Akita drawing all seven of these games, it is likely they will win, and lose, some of those games. It is vital for Akita to take as many points as they can during these next seven games in order to push themselves far out from the dropping pack. Something I think they will do. The Gunma (H) and Roasso (A) games near the end of the year line up well on paper for Akita which might be their last gasp at avoiding relegation before a run of JEF (H), Okayama (A), and Sendai (H) to close out the season.

(19) Iwate Grulla Morioka: Iwate face teams who averaged the second highest win percentage in this table and may have the toughest overall remaining schedule of all the teams I looked at. Compounding these problems is the fact that Iwate also struggle for goals both at home and on the road. Zelvia (H), Yokohama FC (A), Okayama (H) are up next and are all teams who out pace Iwate in the goals scored/conceded categories. Though Zelvia and Okayama do not score as many goals on the road as one would expect from teams inside or near the promotion zone.

Akita (H) is Iwate’s most favorable fixture during their next seven games before being dropped right back into the meat grinder with Oita (A), Niigata (A), and Yamagata (A). I would expect Iwate to hang near the bottom of the table for the remainder of the season which makes the games at Renofa (A) and what could be the relegation decider for several teams, Gunma (H) match day 41, extremely important for Iwate.

(20) Omiya Ardija: Omiya has the toughest opponent winning percentage ahead of them but they are the only team with a positive, or neutral, goals scored/conceded ratio against compared to their opponents in the table above. Omiya start right away with Akita (H) which could lead to some points before Mito (A), Yokohama FC (H), Sendai (A), Zelvia (H), and Yamagata (H). Any points accumulated in those games would go a long way to turning this into a two horse relegation race between some of the other teams.

From there Omiya will experience a bit of an ‘every other’ fixture schedule that fluctuates between tough, and on paper, favorable match ups. Omiya do have the luxury of playing Renofa (H) and Gunma (A) near the end of the season. But if they leave it late, they will face Vortis (A) and Niigata (H) to end the campaign. With that in mind one could see Omiya hanging around near the bottom until the final weeks of the season.

(21) Thespakusatsu Gunma: Gunma have the second lowest opponent winning percentage remaining in addition to having one of the easiest run of fixtures to end the 2022 campaign. But like Iwate and Akita, Gunma are struggling for goals. Seems this is a recurring theme among all the teams in question here. One saving grace for Gunma is despite them possibly taking some heavy losses in the near term, so will some of the teams near them in the table. If they don’t drop too far back they will end the season with FC Ryukyu (H), Akita (A), Renofa (H), Omiya (H), Kumamoto (A), and Iwate (H).

Kumamoto is also slightly favorable based on their low goals scored at home average and then there are the many 6-pointers on tap for Gunma that at least provides the prospect of getting out of the relegation zone. If they are depending on salvation with a win/draw at Mito to end the year they could be severely disappointed. Like, Iwate, Omiya, and FC Ryukyu, expect Gunma to hang near the bottom barring some massive unexpected point gains.

(22) FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu find themselves sort of in the middle of the stat categories in the table above. But they are at a major disadvantage having to play nine (9) of their final fifteen (15) games on the road. Though one could argue they’ve done far better on the road this season as that is where they’ve earned 3/4 of their total wins, but it is an even split of points for both home and away this year for Ryukyu. There really isn’t a lengthy ‘sweet spot’ in the remaining fixtures for Ryukyu to exploit like the other teams we looked at. The best looking set of fixtures occurs with the match days 33 and 34, and then between match days 36 to 38.

Of their six (6) remaining home fixtures there are only two teams that Ryukyu face with a losing record on the road. One may think the Roasso game looks favorable at first glance but Kumamoto are some serious road warriors this season with eight (8) wins, six (6) draws, a single (1) loss with a ridiculous amount of goals scored. What Roasso has done on the road is something FC Ryukyu must mirror if they wish to survive 2022 in the J2.

But that won’t be easy considering three (3) of their nine (9) away fixtures are in locations where Ryukyu has never won (Vortis, Kofu and Niigata). They also need points at places where they own just a single win across three seasons in the J2 (Nagasaki, Mito and JEF). That means they cannot afford to drop points at Gunma, Tochigi and Kanazawa. One thing is for certain, FC Ryukyu need goals and need them fast. If they don’t get those goals that can lead to wins the end will come quicker than expected.

Conclusion

Maybe I didn’t get the answers I initially set out to find. But I did develop a much richer understanding of the sides facing relegation. Obviously this type of article could be much better if we had the input from fans from each of the teams that could speak to the similar woes Ryukyu is currently experiencing as I am only looking at the numbers for the other teams. In any case, FC Ryukyu has it all to do. I am hoping they can pull off a miracle.

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (20) Omiya Ardija #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu only managed to draw 1-1 last Sunday night at home versus Omiya Ardija. While this means Ryukyu have now matched their longest undefeated streak of the season, three (3) games, it was not the result they needed. It is becoming painfully clear that if Ryukyu cannot defend a one goal lead while shutting out their opponent, they won’t win any games. Last night marked the twenty third (23) time this season where Ryukyu failed to reach the two (2) goal mark in a game.

Match Highlights

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Keep it Simple. Likelihood 3. Each side did enough to make it look like they were pushing for the win while doing everything they could to not lose.

2. Harass the Omiya GK. Likelihood 2. Sort of, but not really. Think Ryukyu had just a few shots on net with their best chances being the narrow misses that didn’t force the Omiya GK to do anything.

Match Day 27 Takeaways

1. The match was very much back and forth in the opening twenty minutes with each team creating some good chances. Ryukyu would control most of the run of play to open the halves with Omiya looking much stronger to close them out. There wasn’t any breaks that really favored either side as Ryukyu had some narrow misses that could’ve put them ahead, only to concede a goal from a set piece after it hit the crossbar and fell right at the feet of an Omiya attacker. Sure, Omiya put themselves in a position to score but it came from a foul that was awarded after both sets of Ryukyu and Omiya players were tugging on each others kits. There really wasn’t a lot of offense (aka quality shots on frame) as you can clearly see by the finally shot totals, depending on what site you look at.

2. Makito Uehara had an up and down game where he would look really good at times and then revert into some questionable play. We know we will have to deal with this while he rounds into the player he could be and to be honest the whole FC Ryukyu team seemed to unravel around the 75′ mark of the match.

3. There was a comment by the manager Nacho that seemed to indicate FC Ryukyu are dealing with ten (10) injuries to key personnel. I saw Numata on crutches leaving the grounds before the match and it seems that ankle injury will keep him out a while longer. Kusano is only about halfway through his rehabilitation; Kiyotake most likely has some facial fracture he’s dealing with; Kelvin definitely pulled/strained a muscle; but no idea what has happened to Noda, Shinya Uehara, Uesato, Fukumura, and Tomidokoro. Maybe some of them are not injured and their absence from the lineup is tactical, but even then, we are possibly talking about one third of the Ryukyu outfield players being out injured. Why does it always feel that Ryukyu have been involved in an injury crisis each season they’ve been in the J2?

4. Only two subs made an appearance last night. Hitomi in the attack and then Yong-Jick to solidify the defense and see out the draw. Ryukyu dressed five (5) central defenders with three (3) forwards but I am not sure there was anything on the bench that could’ve provided a spark in the finally stages of the match when Ryukyu needed to go for it. It was disheartening, but understandable, to see the move towards at least securing the draw in what was a must win game.

4. Nacho’s comments following the match indicate he is not happy without the amount of set pieces and turnovers Ryukyu are conceding. Not sure how much of that he can improve this season but we have to start somewhere. The easiest would be cleaning up the turnovers and finding some sort of combination up top that will just take some chances on net.

Round 27 in J2

All three of the top sides easily saw out wins by goal margins of three (3) or more goals. Oita Trinita helped some of the teams at the bottom with their win over Gunma but that wasn’t the case with Okayama as they played to a 0-0 draw with Tochigi.

Conclusion

No time to wallow in despair. Time to focus on Tokushima Vortis. Anything positive from that match will go along way to getting out of this funk. But that will require multiple goals.

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (21) Omiya Ardija #FC琉球

Intro

This is a must win game for FC Ryukyu, and conversely, Omiya Ardija. I am not going to entertain any arguments that say, “well Ryukyu could still draw/lose and still have a chance at survival.” No, no, no, no! FC Ryukyu needs a home win so they can inch closer to getting out of the relegation zone. FC Ryukyu needs a home win for their manager who has been a welcome sign of change with his character and persona. FC Ryukyu needs a home win for their fans. Most importantly, FC Ryukyu needs a home win for themselves.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

I think we’ve maybe had a couple of home games this season where the weather forecast was actually favorable. Then again, we’ve had some unfavorable forecasts that turned out to be nice days. That is where we find ourselves for this Sunday’s game where it seems rain, and thunderstorms, are in store for the home fans. I do not mind, though I do not wish for lightening to disrupt the game. This forecast really sucks for some fans who will be discouraged to attend either solo or as a family.

Click>>>> Match Day 27 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: I feel that it is finally starting to come together for this team. We knew last week was going to be a challenge against a tougher opponent where Ryukyu would control little of the game and would be required to strike quick from counter attacks. And they did just that. Not all the counters resulted in goals but you could see Ryukyu trying to create chances. All they need now is to be rewarded with a few more goals from these attacks.

Then we have the inspired play from Dany Carvajal – who single handedly kept Ryukyu in the match last week with his PK save in the waning moments of the first half. That was definitely the spark that led to the Ryukyu goal to open the second half. It is so great to see such a good player make his way back from a nasty injury that kept him out for the better part of two seasons, only to be left rotting on the bench by previous managers, and who is now playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. I love to see it. I said a few weeks ago that we need players in the lineup that are angry, hungry, and are ready to play with a nasty edge to them.

But, unfortunately, we haven’t achieved anything yet and still have a mountain to climb when it comes to getting out of the basement and back into the safe zone of J2. This season I’ve had the feeling that when you are down on your luck, you get none of the breaks, with external forces acting against you at all times. We’ve had to deal with a rash of injuries to key players, questionable refereeing, late goals conceded, even more injuries, and then just some plain old bad luck. But this is also my first season facing the very real prospect of relegation so perhaps my viewpoint is different than many others around the league.

FC Ryukyu need to treat every remaining game as if they are their own individual season. Take care of business their way, do not worry about the things you cannot control (trust me when I say the fans are doing their part in that category) and for god’s sake, hit the double digit goal mark for what would be only the fifth (5) time this season. Ryukyu really need that second, heck, third, fourth, goal in games to win. That presents a bit of challenge these days as we are not sure of the status for Koki Kiyotake (face/head?), and Kelvin (hamstring/IT Band?) injuries. Players who were removed from games due to injury with no news from the club on their status.

Omiya Ardija: I think if you squinted really hard, or adjusted the contrast on your television, you’d believe you were looking at FC Ryukyu when watching Omiya Ardija highlights. These two teams are nearly identical in every single facet of the game this year. Omiya, just like Ryukyu, experienced nothing but frustration and disappointment along the way. There is no doubt that Omiya view this as a must win match. And they have already had the better of Ryukyu on two occasions this season.

So this isn’t the traditional ‘rubber match’ where someone “wins” the series. Oh no, the stakes are much higher right now and technically Omiya have already won the series this year. These are just two teams battling for their survival. Omiya put Ryukyu to the sword twice during our darkest days and will now look to step on the heads of all of us in order to push themselves higher up while turning FC Ryukyu into the nice cushion at the bottom of the table. I find no fault, no anger, in this line of thinking as any of us would feel the same way if the roles were reversed.

Onto the matters at hand. Omiya, similar to our beloved FC Ryukyu, have been plagued by some horrible luck, horrible refereeing decisions, and horrible results. Kind of comforting to know others suffer the same anguish as we all know that misery loves company. Both Ryukyu and Omiya longest winning streaks stand at two (2) games this season with both only experiencing a stretch of three (3) games where they went undefeated. And that has happened only once for both teams.

Omiya are winless in their last five (5) games (0W2D3L) but have at least hit the two (2) goal mark in consecutive games. A mark that Ryukyu has failed to reach in over a month and a half. Omiya have also been recently plagued with surrendering goals in extra time. Something that Ryukyu had excelled at until the shift in managers. Against Okayama they surrendered the go-ahead goal at the start of extra time before committing a costly foul that led to an additional goal through a penalty kick. Last week they nearly saw out the win against Tokyo Verdy before a 92′ minute goal leveled the match. I guess it is safe to say that extra time on Sunday will be the most nervy time for each set of fans.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Keep it Simple. Likelihood 3. Whatever teams do to beat FC Ryukyu, or Omiya Ardija, do exactly that. These two teams couldn’t be more evenly matched on paper, in standings, or in current situations.

2. Harass the Omiya GK. Likelihood 2. Omiya are down to their 3rd string GK and though we didn’t ask anything of him during our first game this year, Ryukyu must this game. Shots from distance, pouncing on contested balls, following up on busted set pieces could all result in goal scoring opportunities for Ryukyu. This match will not be like Sendai, this game will be back and forth and therefore Ryukyu need to to pepper the Omiya net and pressure their back line.

Match Day 27 in J2

Round 27 kicks off with (3) Vegalta Sendai heading to (19) Iwate Grulla Morioka. League Leaders (1) Albirex Niigata will travel to face (11) Zweigen Kanazawa with (2) Yokohama FC hosting (9) JEF United Chiba on Sunday. FC Ryukyu, as well as Omiya, are hoping that Sendai, (4) Fagiano Okayama and (8) Oita Trinita can all pull off wins in their matches this weekend.

There was supposed to be two free broadcasts this week on the J-League International YouTube Channel but the (10) Tokyo Verdy and (14) Tokushima Vortis match has been postponed due to a COVID outbreak in the Tokyo Verdy squad. International fans will still be treated to the (18) Blaublitz Akita and (13) Montedio Yamagata match. Click>>>> Blaublitz Akita vs Montedio Yamagata.

Conclusion

You know what you need to do. So do it. Do it!

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (3) Vegalta Sendai #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu finally ended their eight (8) game winless streak, which included five (5) consecutive losses, by defeating Iwate Grulla Morioka 1-0 on Wednesday night. It was a vital win against an opponent near the relegation zone and a slight boost to a team, and its fans, who have experienced a lot of disappointments this season. But the beat goes on and now Ryukyu must turn their attention to a very tough opponent, Vegalta Sendai, on an extremely short week.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

It will be hot and muggy as usual down here in Okinawa.

Click>>>> Match Day 26 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: There were several changes to the Ryukyu lineup in the midweek that included a return to net for Dany Carvajal; the pairing of Omori and Nakagawa at CB; the return of Omoto; and moving Kelvin into more of a forward role up top. I may not have been paying enough attention throughout the season when it comes to Taguchi getting in the asses of his defenders, but Dany was clearly more vocal when there was some suspect defending. A welcome sign for sure and one that probably stems from a much more animated manager in Nacho.

The young CB duo of Omori and Nakagawa, that we haven’t seen paired together since Match Day 2, also did really well in earning Ryukyu’s first clean sheet since their last win. Though it seemed Ryukyu may have gotten lucky at times on some dangerous balls into the box, I feel it was more of the case that these young defenders were putting themselves into the right positions to clear balls during those nervy moments. Even more shocking was the Ryukyu goal that not only came from a set piece, but one in which a central defender scored on! Omori is now the points leader among our central defenders this season with one (1) goal.

Kelvin’s move up top put him in some advantageous positions to create chances but unfortunately Ryukyu was out of synch in the attack. A fact confirmed by the single shot on net the entire match (though they did make it count). Ryukyu may want to consider starting Abe, who has since returned from injury the last two weeks, and Kelvin up top as that could create some explosive chances between the pair. That may have to be the case if the injury that forced Kiyotake out of the match will keep him off the pitch for an extended period of time. But I hope that is not the case as we cannot afford to lose Kiyotake at this point in the season.

Ryukyu also sustained a second injury when Keigo Numata had to be subbed off in the 20th minute for what looks to be a lower leg injury. I don’t feel this is one of our most catastrophic injuries to overcome since Numata, who is far better in attack than defense, has provided no assists or goals this season. Kanai, Omoto, or even Fukumura (if healthy) can easily slot into the LB role moving forward. On the other side, Makito Uehara’s development is coming along but at times it can put Ryukyu into scary situations with some of his defending. Hopefully Keita Tanaka can regain his role at RB during a massively important stretch of games for Ryukyu.

We all knew it would take some time for a new manager to instill a new system and for the players to execute said system. Ryukyu are getting closer, but they are not quite there yet. Ryukyu certainly need to generate some more offense compared to the previous two matches and though some people griped about the “professional time wasting” Ryukyu may have deployed last week, we had three wins on the season and this is nothing that other sides in the league refuse to do at times. Heck, Ryukyu incurred an infraction for the perceived time wasting and were rewarded with an extra eight (8) minutes of added time, which we all know is the most dangerous/nervous time for Ryukyu and their fans.

Vegalta Sendai: There is quite the gulf in the standings, goals scored/conceded ratio, and quality between these two sides and nothing on paper indicates that Ryukyu has even the slightest chance of pulling off a miracle result at home against Sendai. Sendai has only been shutout five (7) times this season compared seven (7) for Ryukyu, with only one (1) shutout for Sendai occurring on the road and only one (1) shutout of their opponent at home for Ryukyu. If Sendai plays to the level they are capable of, I don’t see any real chance for Ryukyu in this match.

For their part Sendai has been in the promotion zone for a majority of the season starting on Match Day four. Their longest winless stretch, which just recently occurred, was only four (4) games long and is perhaps why they’ve dropped out of the automatic promotion zone for the moment. But Sendai have pretty much destroyed every team that sits in, or near, the relegation zone this year. As one would naturally expect from a a team vying for promotion. Sendai’s only shocking loss occurred at the hands of Oita Trinita when Oita sat 18th in the table. The only other losses came against Yokohama FC (twice), Zelvia, Verdy and a resurgent JEF United.

Sendai earned two (2) wins, two (2) draws, and a single (1) loss in their last five games with both wins occurring this past week. They recovered twice from deficits on the road at Vortis to rescue a draw, but couldn’t do the same against Yokohama FC in a game that ended 3-2 to YFC. Sendai were nearly undone by Montedio Yamagata before an 85th minute equalizer by Masato Nakayama, yes, the same player who used to terrorize Ryukyu during his days at Mito Hollyhock, secured the draw. Sendai then went on to earn wins on the road at Zelvia and at home to Kofu by scoring three (3) goals in each of those matches.

There are not a lot of areas to exploit in this Sendai squad despite the fact that their longest winning streak stands at three (3) games and longest undefeated streak at five (5), marks that Sendai have already hit twice this season. There isn’t even some quirky stat like; when Sendai reach the identical goals scored mark in consecutive games they either draw or lose while being shutout. But then again, I am only watching highlights of Sendai and researching their stats. If you wish to know more about Sendai, head on over to the @vegalta_blog for more English content on the club.

Keys to Victory (or any sort of points) for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

Quick strikes from Counter Attacks. Likelihood 2. If Ryukyu wish to net anything for this match they may have to do it via quick counter attacks stemming from a total team effort in defense. I feel as if Sendai will control a majority of the play and chances with Ryukyu needing to get into the attacking third of the pitch in as few passes as possible thanks in part to some speed up top (Abe & Kelvin) and accurate through balls (Keita Tanaka). Then Ryukyu will need to take the old Route 1 approach on net with a lot more conviction and desire than we’ve seen recently.

Round 26 in J2

Seems a lot of the teams at the top of the table are facing a lot of sides near the bottom of the table this week. That is slightly encouraging if Ryukyu can somehow manage a point, or not, in their game against Sendai so here is to (5) V-Varen Nagasaki, (6) JEF UTD Chiba, and (8) FC Machida Zelvia all earning victories this weekend. I should also add, though not lovingly, that I hope (9) Tokyo Verdy can defeat (21) Omiya Ardija in this weeks free broadcast on the J-League International YouTube Channel. Click>>>> Omiya Ardija vs Tokyo Verdy.

Conclusion

Good luck to us all!!!!

Rivalry Week: Part II FC琉球

Intro

It is once again that time of year for two teams to square off who have built up a pretty good history between one another the past four seasons. I’ve written many times about this rivalry that has included the fouls, cards, penalty kicks, lopsided score lines and controversy that makes this make-shift derby all the more enjoyable. I for one hope to enjoy this in person, weather permitting, so as to see Ryukyu’s first win six weeks! Time is running out and the fixtures do not get any easier for Ryukyu. It has to start somewhere and that somewhere is in Chofu.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Weather looks agreeable. I just hope the tropical storm around Okinawa this weekend doesn’t disrupt the team’s, or the traveling fans, transportation plans.

Click>>>> Match Day 24 Information from Tokyo Verdy

Team Previews

Tokyo Verdy: What a whirlwind season it has been for Tokyo Verdy thus far. They opened the season with eight (8) straight games without a defeat before embarking on a stretch of thirteen (13) games with only a single (1) win. That obviously got their manager to start the season relieved. Verdy do have the luxury of playing three (3) of the bottom five (5) teams in the table over the coming weeks but who knows if that will be enough to get them back in the promotion hunt. Verdy already played two teams in the relegation scrap in their past five games and only managed draws with those sides (Omiya and Iwate).

Verdy have had some interesting matches this season in which they’ve either scored, conceded or scored and conceded three (3) goals in consecutive matches. In fact, that has happened five times (Match Days 6/7, 9/10, 14/15, 17/18, and most recently 22/23). And following those outbursts of scoring Verdy usually plays in some low scoring affairs by going 1W-2D-1L. Will that trend continue this match?

Speaking of this match, FC Ryukyu has the slight edge in the series by winning three (3), losing two (2), and drawing twice (2). All three of Ryukyu’s wins came in row between 2020 and 2021 in which Ryukyu shutout Verdy in all of those games. However, Verdy has some of the biggest score lines away to Ryukyu having hit five (5) goals on two occasions. It seems when Ryukyu draw with Verdy at home, and then lose by a heavy score the following match, Ryukyu win the next time these two play. That is some loose logic there but it is the exact situation Ryukyu find themselves in this Sunday.

FC Ryukyu: A few weeks ago I suggested that FC Ryukyu could be facing another lengthy winless stretch of games. That has unfortunately come to fruition. FC Ryukyu are winless in their last seven (7) games while suffering four (4) consecutive defeats for the second time this season, and have managed just a single goal in their past four games. FC Ryukyu’s performance chart on the Transfermarkt website is looking more like an EKG reading of patient who is about to expire than anything else.

But maybe a game with Ryukyu’s main rival in J2 can help get them going in the right direction. We’ve all seen teams around the globe struggling for results only to face a rival, or play a derby match, which somehow reinvigorates a side and provides a break in the bad results. Let’s hope that is the case for FC Ryukyu on Sunday. To do that, Ryukyu will need goals, but where – and who – will they come from?

Nacho Fernandez rolled out the same lineup that his predecessor used at Fagiano Okayama the previous week with pretty much the same results. At the end of the match the manager lamented the fact that there just wasn’t enough crosses into the box and that at times it seemed his side wanted to revert back to the ways under the previous manager (as best as we could translate). I appreciated that he was visibly upset at the results and it was a breath of fresh air in the normal milk toast postgame interviews. But fiery talk is one thing, backing that up with results is another.

If Nacho wishes to see more crosses and service into the box, than he should look no further than Keita Tanaka. That is, hoping Keita – who has been seen in training – is healthy enough to start over Makito Uehara at RB. Another option would be to reintroduce Takayuki Fukumura back into the lineup, who has also gone missing from the side the past two weeks, as well as Yuki Omoto. I hope the previous Emperors Cup match with Omiya, in which two of the three players mentioned above last featured, didn’t result in any injuries that we are not aware of. By my count that makes four (4) Ryukyu defenders on the mend and short on options considering we use many of these defenders in several roles. Abe is the poster child for a match later this month, perhaps he is finally fit and ready to play this week?

Round 24 in J2

All three of the top sides are on the road this week with all matches but one, Verdy v Ryukyu, taking place on Saturday. League Leaders (1) Yokohama FC and (2) Albirex Niigata will look to extend their lead over (3) Vegalta Sendai with games against teams in the lower half of the table and with Sendai having the toughest draw against (5) FC Machida Zelvia. A match that will also be broadcast on the J-League International YouTube Channel. Click>>>> FC Machida Zelvia vs Vegalta Sendai.

At the bottom of the table it is (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka hosting (21) Omiya Ardija in game in which we as Ryukyu fans would like to see a draw but until FC Ryukyu start handling their own business, it is pointless to continue to scoreboard watching in hopes of favorable results. The Verdy v Ryukyu match will also be broadcast on the J-League International YouTube Channel this weekend. Click>>>> Tokyo Verdy vs FC Ryukyu.

Conclusion

These next two games could be considered a bit of a release from the tough fixtures Ryukyu just fought through, but nothing is to be considered easy for a team floundering at the bottom of the table. It is looking less and less likely that Ryukyu can pull off some sort of miracle winning streak considering they’ve only won three (3) times in their first twenty three (23) matches. But they could at least win two in a row for the second time this season and possibly see out some tough points on the road. This match with their quasi-heated rival couldn’t have come at a better time for Ryukyu as hopefully it provides a bit of extra motivation to shake loose a win this weekend. Come on lads!

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (6) FC Machida Zelvia #FC琉球

Intro

Let’s not kid ourselves. A lot of things need to break right for FC Ryukyu to avoid the drop. We cannot reasonably expect teams around Ryukyu in the standings to lose every week, suffer the same set of bad luck, or accrue the same set of injuries since Ryukyu have unfortunately left it super late to save the season. Not only are Ryukyu at the foot of the table following three (3) consecutive losses, they are also seven (7) points behind Iwate and Omiya in the relegation race. The tall task will fall upon newly appointed manager Nacho Fernandez and Ryukyu need to start netting positive results almost immediately. That will be no easy ask as Machida Zelvia have historically had the better of Ryukyu and who, like everyone in J2 these days, is eyeing this matchup as a get right game to gain some valuable points.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Doesn’t it just figure that Okinawa finally comes out of rainy season, has enjoyed nice weather for the past seven days, and now on game day, splat!

Click>>> Match Day 23 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu were not able to enjoy any “new boy bounce” following the departure of Kina after the Yamagata match and are now winless in their last six (6) games with four (4) defeats. Perhaps due to the fact that Head Coach Kuranuki had already had his shot at such a bounce earlier in the season, but FC Ryukyu did name a new manager in the time between blog entries. Nacho Fernandez will oversee what will hopefully be a restoration of the club and push out of the relegation zone.

There are so many problems that require fixing at Ryukyu it must be a difficult decision for where to start for their new manager. Tactics, Lineup Selection, defending, scoring, motivation, and confidence are equally important, but so too is mental focus. Ryukyu dropped five (5) points in three (3) out of their last four (4) matches due to goals conceded in extra time. Vortis were able to equalize late with both Nagasaki and Okayama earning victories in the waning seconds of the game. Ryukyu have now conceded ten (10) extra time (both first and second half) goals inside of twenty two (22) games. That has to stop right now to avoid falling even farther behind teams just above us in the table.

Nacho has to instill a system that encourages players into taking more shots while also preventing the breakdown of defending at the back. All the while with both a depleted attacking and defending corps. We know Kusano is out until at least September and hopefully recently signed Kelvin can regain some of the form he displayed throughout his career with each match he plays. Of course, don’t hold your breath on any news of Takuma Abe returning to aide in the attack, though his return would be a massive boost to the side that is still three weeks out from seeking reinforcements in the summer transfer window.

Then there is the issue Ryukyu face in defending, and some could argue, goalkeeping. Ryukyu really don’t have the luxury of having their young defenders, Omori and Nakagawa, grow into the position as that time passed long ago. What they need is consistent solid performances while Okazaki remains out injured. Then there was the curious decision to start Makito Uehara over Keita Tanaka at right back last match. Maybe the decision was based on an injury that Tanaka picked up, and though I believe Makito can develop into a fine player one day, I will once again state that it is probably as a central defensive midfielder, and not a central defender/fullback.

Taguchi isn’t enjoying nearly the success he had last season, though he does flash at times and it probably is not all his fault with what is in front of him, but nevertheless, he has surrendered thirty eight (38) goals in twenty one (21) games. Hopefully a switch at manager may result in shaking up the lineup that includes another start for Dany Carvajal. Ryukyu have a lot of work ahead of them to find suitable ‘central’ defenders and forwards in the upcoming transfer window but must now focus on accumulating some points, however miniscule they maybe, in the near term.

FC Machida Zelvia: You know what you are going to get when facing Zelvia. A team loaded with attacking talent, but with plenty of questions about their defending. Zelvia also seem to be more of a ‘home’ team than one that does well on the road. Seven (7) of their nine (9) wins have come at home this season with zero (0) road wins in their last seven (7) away games.

Watching their past five games the home/road split is really evident. Losses to Tochigi SC and Oita on the road with wins at home over Akita and Kanazawa, with a draw against Kumamoto mixed in. Though Zelvia’s road form offers the slightest glimmers of hope for Ryukyu this week, let’s not forget that Zelvia own Ryukyu in the series with eight (8) wins and only a single (1) loss dating back to their time in the J3. Which coincidentally was the last time FC Ryukyu defeated Zelvia in any match (2014).

In the first meeting between these two sides Ryukyu looked good by holding Zelvia to a 0-0 draw before embarking down their current path. Granted, Zelvia did not have Dudu or Vinicius in the lineup for the opening match of the season so it must be taken with a grain of salt. Most Ryukyu fans pointed to the strong performances from young CBs Nakagawa and Omori in limiting Zelvia’s opportunities as well as shutting down the veteran striker Chong Tese. Ryukyu will need another such performance out of their defense this week if they wish to leave the match with any points.

Keys to Victory Keys to Nicking a Point for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Score early. Likelihood 2. The second part of this would be to frustrate Zelvia by clogging their shooting lanes with the third, and most important, being the ability to finish the match without surrendering any late goals. The last being an almost impossible ask these days as indicated by Ryukyu’s poor record for conceding goals after the 75th minute mark games in addition to the amount of extra time goals they’ve hemorrhaged. But in the Zelvia games I watched, when Zelvia played on the road and conceded early, they seemed extremely frustrated at times when trying to score and were thus unable to recover.

2. Pressure the Zelvia back line into making mistakes. Likelihood 2. This largely depends on who is in the attacking role for Ryukyu this week as this game would have been perfect for a player of Kusano’s quality. Zelvia had several mistakes in defending, and playing out from the back, in their last five games which means there should be opportunities for Ryukyu in both the turnover category and to find space in between Zelvia defenders. That is, if Ryukyu can press, find space, find the key last passes and get quality shots on net.

Round 23 in J2

Headlining this weeks fixtures is the top of the table clash between (2) Yokohama FC and (1) Albirex Niigata. Kind of depressed this game is on the same day as the Ryukyu match as I would definitely want to tune into this one. But luckily the J-League has decided to broadcast this match to the world on the J-League International YouTube Channel and the link can be found under this paragraph. Right behind this tasty draw is the match featuring (3) Vegalta Sendai at home to (7) Montedio Yamagata who are both coming of losses and attempting to stay squarely in the promotion zone.

Click>>> J-League Int’l YouTube Channel: Yokohama FC vs Albirex Niigata

Depending on the outcomes for both the Ryukyu match and (19) Tochigi SC versus (21) Iwate Grulla Morioka game, Ryukyu could find themselves in an even deeper hole than before this round kicked off. Keeping one eye on those teams situated at the bottom of the table also sees a resurgent (20) Omiya Ardija, who are on a nice run of win one/draw one/lose one, hosting (14) Zweigen Kanazawa who have suffered two (2) defeats in their last three (3) games. The second free J-League International YouTube broadcast, and what is likely to be a staple the remainder of the year, features (8) JEF United Chiba at home to (11) Tokyo Verdy. Link is below.

Click>>> J-League Int’l YouTube Channel: JEF UTD Chiba vs Tokyo Verdy

Conclusion

So you have FC Ryukyu with only one (1) home win to date facing a Zelvia side that struggles for results on the road (two wins on the road all season). I think Zelvia is having the type of season that Ryukyu initially hoped for this year; overpowering teams in the attack, while trying to make up for the void in defense. As we’ve seen, it can get you places, but it isn’t enough to push teams over the line. Zelvia definitely have more quality in the attack than Ryukyu these days but I don’t feel these teams are separated by much. Sure, Ryukyu have conceded 20 more goals than Zelvia this season, but Ryukyu have also dealt with a rash of injuries to key players with Zelvia remaining largely unscathed. Would it be so hard to believe these teams are, or could be, two evenly matched sides on Sunday? Consecutive 0-0 score lines their past two meetings would at least indicate as much.

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (10) V-Varen Nagasaki #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu have reached the halfway point of the 2022 season and will continue on without their manager, Tetsuhiro Kina, who was relieved of his duties on Monday June 6th. Head Coach, Kazuki Kuranuki, who briefly oversaw a slight bump in performance for the club when Kina was sidelined with CV-19, will take over as interim manager until a replacement can be found. The move away from Kina was a long time coming for some Ryukyu fans and now we have to ask the question, is there enough matches remaining this season for Ryukyu to turn things around?

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Rainy season will not die off so easily. Goodness me this looks awful.

Click>>>>Match Day 21 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Relieving the manager, which was necessary, is one thing. Accumulating points during a tough stretch of matches while being severely depleted due to key injuries is another. Ryukyu look primed to have another stretch of four (4), or more, games where they concede at least three (3) goals in consecutive matches. The last time that happened was between match days 6-9 and there are some familiar opponents over the next four (4) fixtures that caused that severe damage to FC Ryukyu.

Perhaps the best tactic Ryukyu can deploy during these times is to park the bus and hope to hit teams on the counter attack. Owning loads of possession has gotten us nowhere, and nowhere fast, and when turnovers/counter attacks occur – which they always will – our defending has been porous. You’ve all seen the stats on how effective teams have been against Ryukyu on limited opportunities.

So why subject a back line, one that is reeling at the moment, to more of the same? Simply offer more coverage, clog the attacking area, and block/clear the shots from danger. And we need to stop the hemorrhaging of goals on set pieces. There is no shame in this tactic if it can net us any positive results especially when we are missing our top scorer while struggling mightily to break down other teams.

Every team playing Ryukyu in the near term will size up their matchup with Ryukyu as a must win or get right fixture. Nagasaki have failed to defeat Ryukyu in any of the three (3) games they’ve played in Okinawa. In fact, in four (4) out of the six (6) total matches played between these sides a team has reached the three (3) goal mark. Funny that each side has scored three goals at home against the other (2019 & 2021) with the 2020 fixtures standing out as the outliers in which those games were low scoring affairs.

V-Varen Nagasaki: Like Ryukyu, Nagasaki started the season slowly, but unlike Ryukyu, they had a bit of a revival by going undefeated in five (5) games. V-Varen Nagasaki are always loaded with talent but haven’t quite finished the job to get promoted to J1. They came oh so close a few seasons ago and a lot of J-League analysts tipped them for promotion in 2021 but it seems the emotional toll of just missing out on promotion really weighed heavily upon the club last season.

Nagasaki now find themselves in a similar pattern that took Ryukyu down last year where they win one, draw one, lose one. Granted, a preponderance of Nagasaki losses come at the hands of teams currently at the top of the table but the dropped points to Omiya, Chiba, Vortis and Verdy have set Nagasaki back a bit this season. Still, Nagasaki sit just one point off the promotion playoff bracket and they need to start taking maximum points from the sides below them, as well as around them, in the standings if they wish to get up, and stay up, near the top of the table.

Despite having a nearly identical goals scored to goals conceded tally, Nagasaki has plenty of attacking talent to overpower teams who struggle to score. Cristiano continues to display a high work rate resulting in five (5) goals scored with four (4) assists that has made him a fan favorite among the J-League. Not far behind Cristiano is Edgar Junio who sits on three (3) goals and two (2) assists. Nagasaki also do much better on the road compared to playing at home with five (5) wins, three (3) of which are in a row heading into this game with Ryukyu.

I didn’t have a chance this week to reach out to @Daniel_VVN for his thoughts on this match but he did mention that Nagasaki are a bit vulnerable when it comes to defending set pieces. Luckily for him, and Nagasaki, Ryukyu are not the greatest at creating or scoring on these types of chances. For more on Nagasaki check out Daniel’s Twitter feed and blog over at @NagaSapo_EN.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Defend as if your life depended on it. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu cannot afford another repeat performance like last week at Montedio Yamagata and that starts with preventing teams from scoring in such quick succession. There has been way too many games this season where Ryukyu’s opponents score in bunches, usually to the tune of three (3) goals in under fifteen (15) total minutes of play. We can only hope the defensive woes were addressed during training this week.

Kinain’ Ya Around

The release of Kina officially brings this section to a close but that doesn’t mean I won’t incorporate some of the intent contained throughout this section in future FC Ryukyu team previews. To state the obvious, this is the worst start to any season for FC Ryukyu since joining the J2. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday Ryukyu will finish with the least amount points, wins, goals scored, while conceding the most ever goals and losses at the halfway point of any season. The writing really has been on the wall for sometime if we look at Kina’s career stats while in charge of FC Ryukyu. Kina amassed five (5) wins, nine (9) draws, and eleven (11) losses in twenty five (25) games as manager for Ryukyu in J2 league matches. That was good for a 20% win rate in all games while earning 32% of the total points available.

A further breakdown of the scoring in those matches tell us that: Ryukyu have been shutout six (6) times, scored a single goal ten (10) times, scored twice six (6) times, and only reached the three-goal plateau, though never exceeding more than three goals, just three (3) times. Conversely, Ryukyu have only shutout their opponents three (3) times, conceded a single goal just eight (8) times, conceded twice in games eight (8) times, allowed three goals three (3) times and have been hit for four (4), or more, goals three (3) times. Was the problem the system, the players or the management? I guess we’ll find out shortly.

Round 21 in J2

No fixture jumps out to me so you’d be better off listening to the @JTalkET podcast to find out which games look tasty this week.

We are treated to two free broadcasts this week on the J.League International YouTube channel. First, it will be our boys taking on Nagasaki at home on Saturday, followed by (15) Tokyo Verdy at home versus (21) Iwate Grulla Morioka on Sunday.

Click>>>> JLeague Int’l YouTube broadcast of FC Ryukyu vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Click>>>> J.League Int’l YouTube broadcast of Tokyo Verdy vs Iwate Grulla Morioka

Conclusion

It was a very active week for FC Ryukyu, one that has seemed to breathe some much needed life back into the supporters, and more importantly, the club. It started with the release of Kina on Monday, followed by the release of a the new 3rd kit in the midweek and ending with the signing of Brazilian forward Kelvin on Thursday. All good signs moving forward but how quickly will the first and last bit of that news pay dividends? The clock is ticking.

Montedio Yamagata vs FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to Montedio Yamagata this past weekend and once again find themselves at the bottom of the table. This was the fifth time that FC Ryukyu were shutout this season (1/4 of their games), the sixth time they’ve conceded three (3) or more goals, and the second consecutive week of surrendering three (3) or more goals. Ryukyu are now two (2) points behind Iwate Grulla Morioka, who have a game in hand, and three (3) behind Omiya Ardija in the relegation race.

Match Highlights

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Concede fewer goals than Yamagata. Likelihood 1. I don’t think I need to add anything here.

Match Day 20 Takeaways

1. Yamagata were just better than Ryukyu in nearly every facet of the game. Yamagata’s first goal was a lovely chip over Taguchi – who may have drifted a little far off his line – after Ryukyu couldn’t capitalize from a strong start. The second goal for Yamagata was a mishandling of a shot from Taguchi but Yamagata were able to find plenty of space within the Ryukyu back line of three (3) defenders to operate on Sunday. Yamagata’s third goal seemed nearly identical to their second when another cross came into a dangerous area and was headed past Taguchi. Yamagata’s fourth and final goal was a lovely piece of work from Kunitomo Suzuki to put one past Taguchi on the near post. A bit worrisome that Yamagata had a conversion rate of 60% for their shots on net.

2. Ryukyu have conceded seven (7) goals within two games while being outscored 9-3 over their last four (4) matches. Ryukyu also managed to push their league leading (probably) goals conceded after the 75th minute total to double digits (10). Three (3) goals were conceded within a span of thirteen minutes. That was the fourth time this season where Ryukyu conceded three (3) goals within a time span of 16 minutes or less!

Round 20 in J2

A couple of upsets and heavy defeats highlight the fixtures from this past Round. Albirex Niigata moved back into the top slot following their draw on the road at Vortis and with Sendai losing on the road to JEF United Chiba. All three (3) of the top clubs remain level on points after Yokohama FC rescued a draw at home Tokyo Verdy. There was another four (4) goal defeat this round with Fagiano Okayama shipping five (5) past Zweigen Kanazawa on their way to a 5-1 victory.

Omiya Ardija lost for the first time in two (2) games but it was the shocking 1-0 win at home for Iwate over Kofu, which was also Iwate’s first home win of the season, that pulled them within one (1) point of Omiya and off the bottom of the table.

Conclusion

26% of teams (6/23), five (5) occurring in the last eight (8) seasons following the creation of the J3 league, that were at the bottom of the table after Match Day 20 ended up relegated that season.