Still searching for their first home win of the season, FC Ryukyu welcome in a surging Montedio Yamagata team this Saturday evening. Ryukyu failed to earn a point last week against Niigata on the road with the downward trend for limited shots on net continuing. On the other hand, Yamagata ripped Kofu apart 3-1 and looked very good while doing it.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 14 Recap; FC Ryukyu
Match Day 14 Recap: Montedio Yamagata
Team Previews & Injury Reports
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day 15 Prediction
Round 15 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
Despite the fact that a Super Typhoon is headed for Okinawa, the match conditions seem favorable on Saturday. Hopefully Montedio Yamagata can return safely home after the game.
2. Match Day 14 Recap: FC Ryukyu
3. Match Day 14 Recap: Montedio Yamagata
4. Team Previews & Injury Reports
FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu ended their 5 games in 15 days with a 1-0 loss to Niigata on the road. The went 2W-1D-2L over that span with an even 5 goals scored, 5 goals conceded. There are some tired legs out there for FC Ryukyu and hopefully we will see a return of Abe to lineup tomorrow to provide a much needed boost to the offense. It maybe premature, but we could also see the debut of new signing, Mizuki Ichimaru, with so many injuries and suspensions to the FC Ryukyu mid-field.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: No change from the last installment and no announcements on the condition of Chinen and Motegi. I am beginning to become concerned for these two men as several weeks have passed and there is no indication that either has recovered or they are still dealing with CV-19 symptoms. I am concerned as these are professional athletes, in far better shape than most of us, and that serious damage is being done to their bodies and careers.
Source: Transfermarkt.com
Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata are starting to surge after a very rocky patch in which they didn’t win a single game between Rounds 3 and 10. They have turned things around as of late by winning three out of their last four against some very good competition. Outside of their two losses to Kyoto and Gunma, Yamagata are very good defensively as they’ve shut out their opponents on six occasions this season. But Yamagata’s away form should also be noted as they haven’t scored nearly as much on the road as they have at home, and they only have one road win to date.
Montedio Yamagata Injuries & Suspensions: DF Kuriyama ruptured his Achilles tendon earlier this month but since his removal from the lineup due to injury, Yamagata has been winning more frequently.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Keep the mental mistakes to a minimum. Likelihood 2. This means not putting in rash challenges, taking bad angles to balls and maintaining a razor focus for the entire match.
2. Score from Set Pieces. Likelihood 2. FC Ryukyu are not generating as many shots on net as they have in the past and some of our best opportunities for goals may stem from set pieces. One goal each from the corner and dead ball spot would be amazing and probably allow us to earn our first home win this year.
6. Match Day Prediction
I see Yamagata tilting FC Ryukyu 2-0 tomorrow evening.
7. Round 15 in J2
Two big match-ups on Saturday with (2) Giravanz hosting (10) JEF, and (1) Nagasaki welcoming in (9) Omiya.
These two teams drew both times they played last year and it is interesting that the last time they squared off in Okinawa, there was a typhoon that disrupted the game. That won’t be the case this time but there is something odd about Yamagata traveling to Okinawa and bringing a typhoon with them.
With that in mind, it is high time that FC Ryukyu grabs their first win of the year, and Rock’s em’ like a Hurricane (typhoon)!
FC Ryukyu head North to Niigata this Sunday for their last of 5 consecutive short week fixtures. They will get a much needed break following this match as they do not play again until the following Saturday when they host Montedio Yamagata. FC Ryukyu are coming off a very spirited 2-2 draw against Tochigi SC in the mid-week and I for one think that energy will propel them to another favorable result this round. Make no mistake though, FC Ryukyu were blown away 4-0 the last time they visited the Big Swan Stadium but that was last year and as I said, I think things will be different this time.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 13 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 13 Recap: Albirex Niigata
Team Previews & Injury Reports
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day Prediction
Round 14 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
Looks to be a comfortable evening in Niigata for this one.
2. Match Day 13 Recap: FC Ryukyu
3. Match Day 13 Recap: Albirex Niigata
4. Team Previews & Injury Reports
FC Ryukyu. Ryukyu have only lost once in their last 7 games as they continue to grind out results. This side can generate loads of possession but are having a hard time finding the back of the net. In fact, FC Ryukyu have yet to score more than two goals in any single match this year.
Against Tochigi SC in the mid-week, FC Ryukyu had 71% possession but very few shots until late in the second half. It was after the introduction of Koizumi, Ikeda and Koya that the attack started moving forward and creating some opportunities. While I’ll always enjoy seeing Ryukyu in possession, it is frustrating watching attacks fizzle out or lead to set pieces that go nowhere. It is a bit like watching your NFL team get into the Red Zone but only kick Field Goals instead of scoring Touchdowns.
Seeing how this is the last short week fixture, at least for a little while, it is safe to assume that we will see roughly the same lineup from the mid-week against Tochigi with some minor tweaks. For all we know, Higuchi’s game plan could consist of letting our more creative players rest for the better part of the match while hoping to score a goal, and then introduce Ikeda, Koya, Koizumi, and Uehara later in an attempt to overwhelm the opposition in the last 30 minutes of the match. Maybe this is his way of conserving energy for some of our better players for later in the season, or at least until Motegi, Shinji and Koki return.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions. No new developments as far as new injuries to the side or recoveries for our CV-19 players. However, FC Ryukyu have 9 members of their squad on the mend.
Albirex Niigata. Niigata started out on fire this year by scoring 13 goals in their first 5 games but have since cooled off with only scoring 7 goals in their last 8 matches. Much of this could be attributed to the loss of some of their key players but Arata Watanabe looks in fine form these days.
While the goals may have dried up for Niigata, they are still managing to earn results. Niigata haven’t lost but once in their last 10 games and their only home loss this year occurred at the beginning of last month. Over their last 5 games, Niigata have drawn with Tochigi, Omiya, and Kyoto while losing to Okayama from a late goal and defeated Renofa at home despite being reduced to 10 men.
This may not be the most inspiring review of an opponent for FC Ryukyu but there wasn’t much in any of the matches I reviewed for Niigata that really stood out. They do some things well that will surely trouble the FC Ryukyu back line, and they create their fare share of chances on goal. They don’t defend any worse than FC Ryukyu do and they will probably hover around the mid-table until the return of some of their star players. They seem ripe for the picking but I’ve said this before about Kofu and we all know how that one turned out.
Albirex Niigata Injuries & Suspensions. Niigata are likely to be missing two of their top scorers this weekend as Fabio is dealing with a ligament injury to his right foot and Frank Romero is listed with a foot injury. Romero has no timetable for return or length of injury listed so there is a possibility he is healthy enough to play on Sunday. They will also be without MF Gonzalez who is serving a suspension for his yellow card accumulation.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Weather the early storm from Niigata. Likelihood 3. Niigata are a very aggressive team at home and chances are they will pepper the Ryukyu net with several shots in the first half. FC Ryukyu may need to approach this match much like they did against Iwata where they had little possession but used the counter attack very effectively.
2. Match the runs of the Niigata attackers. Likelihood 2. Against Tochigi, Ryukyu failed to match the runs of the Tochigi players which led directly to both of their goals. The second was the most egregious as Yong Thae was left wide open for the header that put Tochigi ahead with only a few minutes to play. It is unlikely that the full backs get back in time to support the onslaught so it is imperative that Uesato, and whatever combination we have at CB, organize themselves and communicate assignments on the counter.
6. Match Day Prediction
This could very well be another ugly match to watch that has a few moments of pulsating action. Niigata still has plenty of firepower remaining despite the loss of Fabio and possibly Frank Romero. I feel that a 1-1 draw is in the offering this weekend.
Plenty of dispersed fixture kickoff times this weekend to suit your fancy. While no single match up stands out, the (10) Jubilo Iwata v (12) Zweigen Kanazawa looks like it could be a good one. One note, the Ehime v Omiya game is scheduled for Saturday evening at 1900 JST on the J-League website and DAZN.
The Free J2 broadcast offered on the J-League International YouTube channel.
8. Conclusion
FC Ryukyu cannot afford to start out sluggish in this match as Niigata could easily jump out to an insurmountable lead before the break. It is perfectly fine for FC Ryukyu to not dominate the possession but they cannot be caught napping by the Niigata attack. Niigata has several key injuries and suspensions which has created a favorable position for FC Ryukyu if they can exploit it.
Let’s also hope the boys aren’t delayed during their return leg as there is a tropical storm/typhoon forming off the southwestern coast of Okinawa as we speak.
And the beat goes on. We’ve now reached the 1/3 mark for the 18 games in 71 days for FC Ryukyu and this time it will be against Tochigi SC. Tochigi SC have turned things around defensively this year compared to 2019 as indicated by their impressive six shutouts to date.
For this installment we will be joined by the Unofficial Tochigi SC correspondent, @tsc_intl, who was kind enough to provide some insight into his club for this match up. Please enjoy.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 12 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 12 Recap: Tochigi SC
Team Previews &Injury Reports
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day Prediction
Round 13 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
It is a real shame that the weather for the matches this year is so much better compared to 2019 and that no one can attend due to CV-19. Looks to be very favorable weather tomorrow.
FC Ryukyu. Over the last month, FC Ryukyu have won twice, drawn twice and lost twice. They have done well to stop the hemorrhaging at the back that plagued them for so much of the restart of this 2020 campaign. The defensive improvement has allowed them to come out on top of some low scoring affairs that includes shutting out their opponents twice during this time.
FC Ryukyu are not nearly as free scoring as they’ve been in the past and they have never really been known as a strong defensive side in any tier they’ve played in here in Japan so this is a nice surprise. Yet, these type of games should provide a nice launching pad for when the team starts clicking up top and begins scoring more goals.
Speaking of scoring, Takuma Abe is on a tear of late as he has scored 4 times in as many games to bring his total to 6 on the year. Good enough for joint 2nd in all of J2. That is the most goals Abe has scored since 2015 and he looks on pace to reach his highest ever total in J2, 18 goals. So long as he can stay healthy.
On the subject of health, FC Ryukyu are facing a selection crisis as they have several players injured, suspended due to CV-19, or just missing from the squad altogether. The last category is worrisome as Ryukyu have been forced to dress, and not use, several youth players from within their ranks. While Tanaka has been superb since making a switch to RB, Ryukyu are hurting for healthy midfielders these days and eventually Tanaka will need a break. Considering we have at least one -Torikai- if not two healthy RBs, Tavares being the other, these guys need to start seeing the field with a little more regularity so Tanaka can rest and provide relief to the rest of his mid field cohorts.
As evidenced by the last performance against Gunma, the players are beginning to break down physically with the amount of games played in such a short time span. The Ryukyu attack stalled out way more than it has the past few rounds and it will only continue to get worse until players can receive adequate rest and recuperation.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: Still no word on the availability of Chinen and Motegi as they recover from CV-19. And there is no word on the statuses of Koizumi, Uehara and Tavares. Yong Jick is flirting with a 1-game suspension if he picks up another Yellow Card so that is something to watch out for.
Tochigi SC. Tochigi this season is characterized by its high press. Though their ball possession rate is quite low, that does not mean they withdraw into their half throughout a game as they did in the previous season. Their quick transition, especially from offense to defense, is also is an improvement from last year. Both of the home-grown rookie wingers, Akimoto and Mori, are in good form, which is one of the driving forces for the team.
Key Numbers
39.7%: the lowest ball possession rate in the league.
Scored 7 goals in total: the fewest in the league.
Conceded 7 goals in total: also the fewest in the league
Issues
As the number of goals indicate, Tochigi needs to generate more scoring opportunities to achieve a higher place in the table. Though they have not let in that many goals, there is some room to improve in dealing with set pieces because the Tochigi last three conceded goals came from set pieces. At the same time, the manager Tasaka needs to give sufficient rest to each player which means he needs to have different options for the roster in this tightly contested match schedule.
Objectives
1. Stop Abe, the top scorer for FC Ryukyu.
2. Never give time and space to Uesato who can make crucial passes.
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Do not over commit in the attack. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu are struggling to produce many goals these days and Tochigi are an excellent defensive side that can hit you on the counter with speed. How else can you explain their low goals scored, conceded, and possession rates and yet they still sit 8 points clear of Ryukyu. Since there is probably some growing frustration with our attack, coupled with some tired legs, there is a chance we throw everything at Tochigi tomorrow. If we make that mistake, we have seen Tochigi punish teams on the breakout.
2. Someone, anyone, create something in the attack. Likelihood 2. As I said, Tochigi are great at organizing their defense and there were very few times that I saw them not properly man marking inside and around the 18-yard box. I am not sure we have the energy to be attempting runs all game so we’ll need someone to win their 1v1 match ups to create some goal scoring chances.
3. Win, and capitalize on Set Pieces. Likelihood 1. FC Ryukyu have scored twice from some set pieces this year but they will need to finally score from a CK. It maybe the only way to either take the lead or claw back into a match against a team that has proven very adept at seeing out 1-0 leads to victory.
6. Match Day Prediction
Asking FC Ryukyu to score nearly one-third of all the goals Tochigi have conceded to date might be a bit much. But these are unprecedented times with so many fixtures that teams may not look like their normal selves. With that in mind, both @tsc_intl and myself feel that a 1-1 score line would be great for both sides.
7. Round 13 in J2
The mid-week slate is highlighted by (4) Omiya Ardija hosting (2) Giravanz Kitakyushu along with (1) V-Varen Nagasaki welcoming in (5) JEF Utd Chiba.
I’d like to thank @tsc_intl for that cracking insight and analysis into Tochigi SC. It is always enjoyable to co-author these previews from time to time as they provide richer content from the oppositions view point.
In closing, a recent tweet by Koya Kazama really sums up the mindset of the players and staff these days for FC Ryukyu. Basically, “we’re all fatigued, but we will endure, and let’s enjoy the next tough match.”
It was a real shame that FC Ryukyu couldn’t even salvage a draw against Kofu this past Wednesday as the loss snapped their four game unbeaten run and denied FC Ryukyu their first home win of the season. Gunma are in a similar predicament as they have failed to win, or draw, at home in 2020 and this is one of their best chances to end that streak. While it is easy to assume that FC Ryukyu will head to Gunma and come back with all 3 points, as we’ve see before, it is anything but easy when it comes to FC Ryukyu.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 11 Recap: Gunma
Match Day 11 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Team Previews & Injury Reports
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Prediction
Round 12 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
This does not look good and there could very well be some delays due to lightening. Maybe we see the orange ball come out as well?
2. Match Day 11 Recap: Thespakusatsu Gunma
3. Match Day 11 Recap: FC Ryukyu
4. Team Previews & Injury Reports
Thepakusatsu Gunma: It is not going according to plan for Gunma this season as they have the worst goal scoring tally in the league and have conceded 3 or more goals in a match 4 times. While Ryukyu have their own struggles with goals, Gunma has been shut out 6 times compared to that of 2 for Ryukyu.
Over their last five games Gunma have 1 win and 4 losses with some heavy defeats. Gunma were decimated by Zweigen and Nagasaki; lost to Kitakyushu and Tochigi at home; and were gifted a PK against JEF to level the game before a 94th minute goal gave them the win. In the Tochigi match, they were unable to level the game despite being up a man after Tochigi received a straight red card in the second half.
Like Ryukyu, Gunma have failed to win at home this season and in spite of the fact that they only have 3 less goals scored (8) when compared to Ryukyu’s (11) tally, more than half of those goals occurred in 2 games. This game is nothing more than a race to 2 goals scored for either side as neither has proven to capable of overcoming that deficit.
Gunma Injuries & Suspensions: Defender Hirao is out for another few weeks from a broken arm and FW Okada is out with what I believe is a pulled hamstring. (Google Translate between English and Japanese?)
FC Ryukyu: It was extremely difficult to watch FC Ryukyu waste a very good chance at clipping a weakened Kofu side last round. Kofu opted to leave many of their star players at home and the gamble paid off as Ryukyu were absolutely anemic in the attack.
At half time Ryukyu had only mustered three shots with none of them making it on net. By the time the game ended, Ryukyu had just 7 total shots, with only 1 – the Penalty Kick- on net. As bad as bad can get from the offensive side of the house.
Higuchi admitted that FC Ryukyu are struggling to break down the oppositions defense and it is evident when you see the MFs pass the ball back to our CBs when they cannot find an opening. Obviously we need some more creativity to unlock these defenses but there also needs to be a bit of aggressiveness on the part of the players.
I’ve said the past few weeks that Ryukyu need to try and set the edge by getting around the flanks of the other team’s defenders. Some of our best goal scoring chances came when Kawai, Ikeda and Abe would try and push past the defenders with speed thus drawing a foul, free kick, corner kick, or shot on net. That tenacity needs to return and the only way it can be done is to abandon self doubt and just go for it.
Ryukyu are now in the middle of a very crammed fixture list and squad rotation will be key. You could see last week that the guys are breaking down a bit and Higuchi needs to find some fresh legs in the squad. It was strange to see Higuchi dress both a special designated player and U-16 player against Kofu as I for one did not believe they would feature at all. This means that Higuchi really only had 4 subs to draw from which severely limited our options. Are you telling me that those two are better options than Koizumi or Tavares, or are you signaling they are hurt? We also left Tanaka in at RB when Torikai came on. I think we should’ve pushed Tanaka up and let Torikai deal with running the channels.
It is frustrating that news releases for this team, and the league in general, lack the information we crave as fans that provide some insights into the club. Especially those concerning minor injuries to players or reasons they are left off the squad. While I doubt this will change any time soon, we need to know what is going on with Koizumi and Tavares. The latter hasn’t been seen or heard from since the opening fixture in February where he performed quite well in the RB role.
If FC Ryukyu wish to make it to the end of the season in one piece, then they will need Tavares and Torikai to play so as to allow some rest to Tanaka who will probably need to play in place of some of the other weary Mid Fielders.
FC Ryukyu Injury & Suspensions: No change from last week and no update on the 2 CV-19 players for Ryukyu. There are some minor concerns for Koizumi – who we haven’t seen in a few weeks – and Ikeda who came off rather early last week after suffering what looked to be a knock to his foot. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.
5. Key to Victory Not Losing for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Likelihood 4: I am not super confident for this one but the past results of Gunma provide a glimmer of hope. Both teams probably have some tired legs but Ryukyu is just far better in the attack than Gunma. Once one goal goes in for Ryukyu, the Gunma heads will drop. The second will see a complete collapse of confidence.
6. Match Day Prediction
The statistics don’t lie is the famous saying. Gunma are not as strong as some of the sides Ryukyu have faced this year but Ryukyu need to finish of drives. 2-1 for FC Ryukyu is a respectable guess based on these teams past performances and goal scoring records.
7. Round 12 in J2
There are not that many fixtures that jump off the page this week. I’d expect some workman like performances by the higher seeded teams which means there probably won’t be much turnover in the table come Sunday night.
There can be no excuse for not coming away with all three points against Gunma tomorrow. They are bottom of the table for a reason and FC Ryukyu need to break out of their goal scoring funk in a big way. Will we see the first 3, or more, goal performance by Ryukyu tomorrow? Or will we see yet another limp performance from this side?
FC Ryukyu will host their third mid-week match of the season tomorrow when they welcome in Ventforet Kofu. If you recall, it was Kofu who ended FC Ryukyu’s 36 game home unbeaten run last year and then defeated us 2-0 at their place on the final day of the 2019 season. Both teams enter the match with winning streaks with each looking to get their first home (FC Ryukyu), and first road (Kofu), win of the season. One note, this game will be played behind “closed doors” as the CV-19 virus continues to rage here in Okinawa.
Weather Report
Match Day 10 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 10 Recap: Ventforet Kofu
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Prediction
Match Day 11 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Report
A very pleasant evening to watch football. Too bad there will be no fans there to enjoy it.
FC Ryukyu: The boys showed some grit and determination last week against Verdy where they were able to earn a win thanks in part to a foolish penalty in the box by a Verdy defender late in the game. Ryukyu had plenty of chances to take the lead in this game with the most notable being the Ren Ikeda header that hit the post from a corner kick.
FC Ryukyu made a switch back to the 4-1-4-1 after sustaining injuries to Ono and Koki in addition to Shunsuke Motegi testing positive for CV-19. The change really allows FC Ryukyu to develop forward thrust but they need to be better with their finishing. Oddly enough, Higuchi opted to bring only two attacking players with him last week in Kawai and Uehara as he dressed three defenders that went as unused substitutes. Perhaps he is giving a break to Koizumi for the short week where he can maximize his speed but that is Ryukyu’s only other healthy mid fielder in the reserves at the moment.
Abe started the match a bit off his game as he was guilty of several missed passes and turnovers but quickly turned things around in the second half. Another player displaying excellent work rates and skill is Keita Tanaka who has been simply on fire after his switch to Right Back.
After two matches as a substitute, I think we may see Kawai make his first start since the opening round back in February. It is time Higuchi allows Kawai, Koizumi and Ikeda to start together for the first time all year. And by that I mean, “to turn ’em loose” on the opposition. But with five games in fifteen days for Ryukyu it is anyone’s guess as to how Higuchi will rotate the squad.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: Lengthy spells on the sidelines for Shinji Ono and Koki Kazama who are dealing with injuries to their knees as well as Okazaki who tore a tendon in his leg. No indication that Motegi or Chinen have been cleared to resume training after their positive CV19 tests.
Ventforet Kofu: The best way I can sum up Kofu is that you know what you’re going to get every time. They will have their peaks and valleys that include some beautiful goals and breakdowns at the back. They seemed to display a penchant for this last year before finally turning it on late in the season for the playoff push.
They completely came apart against Verdy last month, which happened to be the last time they lost, before defeating Omiya and JEF at home the following weeks. They have since gone on to draw against Mito, Yamaguchi, and Fukuoka. Their most recent three games were without one of their most important players, Dudu, who did not feature. To be honest, they should’ve lost to Mito but were saved by an incorrect offside call before finally surrendering the equalizer shortly thereafter.
A majority of the goals that Kofu scored the past six matches stemmed from set pieces or broken plays resulting in favorable rebounds. That is not to say they didn’t score any goals from open play but that is what stuck out to me when watching their highlights. In defense, the trend seems to be exposing the back three defenders when the two wing backs/mid fielders fail to track back or mark players properly thus leaving gaping holes for attackers to exploit. It often results with a look of confusion on the faces of the defenders, rather than anger, as they cannot fathom how things transpired to lead to an opponents goal.
While I fully expect Kofu to come to Okinawa and curl the back of our net once, maybe twice, they can get caught out in the counter attack by the speed of the Ryukyu players.
Ventforet Kofu Injuries & Suspensions: There are no injuries to any of the starters or players that have featured this season though strangely enough Dudu hasn’t made an appearance the past three games for Kofu. There is no word that he is dealing with an injury and this same phenomenon happened last year leading up to the final match day of the year against Ryukyu before he made a miraculous recovery and appearance.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Own the Flanks. Likelihood 4: Ryukyu need to get the edges of the Kofu defense and follow it up with quality runs into open spaces from the central mid fielders. There is plenty of open space between the Kofu defenders when you stretch them laterally as the wingers/outside mid fielders for Kofu are not great at defending or closing down attackers. That should allow some space and time for Tanaka, Numata, Kawai, and Koya to deliver some quality crosses into the box.
2. Defend set pieces with some tenacity. Likelihood 2: Kofu are lethal on corner kicks and from dead ball kicks. Ryukyu need solid performances out of the two CBs and two full backs tomorrow. We really need Yong Jick and Suzuki to shut down all runs into the middle by getting to the ball first and we need not let our guard down on any short corners/low crosses.
6. Match Prediction
Kofu has drawn and lost their two Wednesday matches this year. Both of those were also away games whereas FC Ryukyu have drawn at home both times they’ve played on a Wednesday against far better competition. Factor in the short week and associated travel for Kofu and I can see FC Ryukyu pulling this one out 2-1.
7. Match Day 11 in J2
(2) Omiya Ardija hosting (6) Jubilo Iwata features two teams inside the top 6 as most of the other games pit top teams against those in the middle and bottom of the table. The (3) Giravanz Kitakyushu versus (11) Zweigen Kanazawa could be a feisty one as well. In any case, if you are a neutral, there is a solid 3 hours of football for you on Wednesday if you can manage to flip back forth with the three staggered kickoff times in this round.
FC Ryukyu are in the first meat grinder session of the new J2 2020 schedule with matches every three days for the next two weeks. These weeks will definitely test the depth of the squad and the skill of the coaching staff to rotate players as Ryukyu are dealing with several key injuries and CV-19 suspensions. There has been no indication that Ryukyu will dip into the summer transfer market for reinforcements, or recall Ramon from his loan spell at Gainare Tottori, so they are simply going to have to make do with what they got and hope to avoid any future injuries or suspensions due to CV-19.
On that note, I hope that many of you continue to take precautions as you go about your daily lives and continue to do your part in stopping the spread of CV-19. While it is easy to become overwhelmed in these times, especially when the prefecture you live in decides to reopen schools during the largest amount of infections to date; I for one am glad that we can take a break from all the stress and enjoy a game we love. Stay safe.
FC Ryukyu are fresh off their first win of 2020 and undefeated in their last three games. Tokyo Verdy are undefeated in their last five matches having come off quality draws to Niigata and Nagasaki. Both teams have issues in the attack, but Verdy has proven very capable of choking out the potent attacks for Nagasaki and Niigata. Ryukyu seem to be improving each week but this will be their first test against an opponent who, like Ryukyu, have faced some tough competition the prior weeks and proven resilient.
Tokyo Verdy: The last time these two sides met, Verdy ran roughshod over FC Ryukyu at home en-route to a 5-1 pasting. In their earlier match up, it was FC Ryukyu getting the better of Tokyo Verdy with a late second wonder goal from Uesato that leveled the match. If you recall in that game, Dany suffered a busted nose after bringing down a Verdy attacker, was awarded a yellow card for his attempt, and then promptly saved the ensuing PK to keep FC Ryukyu in the game.
As mentioned in the introduction, Verdy are undefeated in their last 5 matches. They dispatched Kofu and JEF with ease before going on a run of three straight draws against Yamagata, Niigata and Nagasaki. In fact, Verdy have only lost once since the restart of the season.
The draws against Niigata and Nagasaki are impressive as those are two of the more potent attacks in the J2 at the moment. While Verdy has only scored 1 goal these past 3 weeks, they have the ability to snuff out your team’s attack while biding their time for their own chance to score.
Verdy are lead by #25 Jin Hanato, #20 Shion Inue, #8 Kanya Fujimoto, and #9 Yuhei Sato in the attack. The combination of Hanato, Inoue, and Fujimoto can produce some skillful deliveries and goals and is one we need to watch out for on Saturday. Verdy also swapped out Shibasaki at GK, after having conceded 5 goals in 3 matches, for Matheus who also surrendered 5 goals since the change, but those goals are spread across 6 matches.
The goal keeper change has served Verdy well and it will prove a tall task for FC Ryukyu to crack the back line and score goals on Saturday.
Tokyo Verdy Injuries & Suspensions: None are reported at this time.
Verdy rotates between a 3-4-2-1 and 4-3-3 and this would be their most dangerous lineup. FC Ryukyu’s lineup is based on injuries, CV-19, and squad rotation.
FC Ryukyu: Getting that all important first win out of the way has provided a nice boost to the morale of this team. While I do not expect them to suddenly surge up the table, I do believe they will put together a nice stretch of results over the coming weeks.
There are a few factors weighing heavily against FC Ryukyu this week that may alter the course of this match. Defender Chinen and MF Motegi tested postive for CV19. Due to the PCR test being administered on Tuesday August 5th, all training for the club was suspended.
This means FC Ryukyu will not have trained at all prior to the match on Saturday. I highly doubt they will try to jam in a training session on the expected travel day of Friday August 7th, and hopefully there has been some preparations and discussion about the game plan via Zoom this week. Who knows? Maybe the long rest may do some tired legs some good.
It is a shame that a disruption like this has occurred, but not unexpected, as FC Ryukyu were gaining some serious momentum. They dominated Okayama in possession and in shots and you could feel that more goals were in store for the side that struggled mightily early this year. All we can do is watch how FC Ryukyu respond to yet another adversity in a season that has had so much already.
FC Ryuky Injuries & Suspensions: As mentioned last week, FC Ryukyu will be without Shinji Ono for some time and we are still waiting to hear the extent of the injury that Koki Kazama suffered this past round (probably need the swelling to go down for an accurate MRI). Factor in that defender Chinen, and MF Motegi, are likely on the sideline for at least two weeks after testing positive for CV-19, FC Ryukyu will have some serious decisions to make as to who will travel, and who will start against Verdy.
5. Keys to Victory
1. This game will likely be decided in the last 15 minutes. Likelihood 4: Verdy are a dangerous team, both to their opponent and themselves, in the final quarter of the game. They can produce moments of brilliance, as well as momentary lapses in judgement. FC Ryukyu would do well to be clear of Verdy at this point in the match but, even if they are down by 2 goals come the 75th minute, I still think they could eek out a draw if they counter punch Verdy while they lose focus. The inverse is also applicable in that FC Ryukyu need to see out the match if they find themselves in the lead.
2. Attack the flanks with speed. Likelihood 4: Verdy’s weakness may be the outer edges of their defense and if Ryukyu can get past those defenders, create a little time and space, it could make all the difference. It seemed that whenever Verdy has conceded a goal, it began with their last line of defenders being pulled apart when an attacker got to the edge. FC Ryukyu have the speed, the question is, can they do it?
6. Match Prediction
I do not like this match up one bit as I cannot get an accurate read on Tokyo Verdy. One factor that could play a part is that FC Ryukyu will have been forced to travel twice as much Verdy this week but Ryukyu also have an extra day of rest. There is also an outside chance that some of the players will be left behind stemming from the positive CV19 cases. Break all ties in favor of the hosts? I think not in this case and see a 2-2 draw on Saturday.
7. Round 10 in J2
(3) Tokushima versus (1) V-Varen Nagasaki is the premier match up this round with (6) Niigata vs. (2) Omiya a close second. However, if both Omiya and Vortis falter, and Kitakyushu win over Gunma, the newly promoted J3 side could suddenly find itself in the top 2 of the table.
8. Conclusion
There are some uncertain times ahead for both the fans of FC Ryukyu and the team. FC Ryukyu have to contend with a CV-19 outbreak inside the club, while their fans need to control their movements in and around Okinawa with the surging number of CV-19 cases. I think we all should’ve expected something like this to happen as Ryukyu have to travel by air for all of their away matches and the refusal to close the prefecture borders. Keep in mind, those are not privately chartered flights and if anyone is sick, or asymptomatic on those flights, our players and staff have a higher propensity to fall ill compared to other J-League clubs.
While there is always a chance that some players may become seriously ill, the greater risk is that to their families and the local community. All we can do now is “fight the good fight” by wearing a mask, washing our hands, practice social distancing, only go out when absolutely necessary, and hope the players remain symptom free so as to continue the season unabated.
Stay safe everyone and heed Rik Emmett’s words below.
FC Ryukyu travel North this Saturday to take on Fagiano Okayama. A team that FC Ryukyu lost to twice last year and have yet to register a goal against. Also of note, FC Ryukyu will be facing Satoki Uejo for the first time this season after his departure from the club. For Fagiano, there were high expectations for a club that splashed a ton of cash this off-season on their signings but so far the return on investment has not paid off. For Ryukyu, they are still searching for that elusive first win.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 8 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 8 Recap: Fagiano Okayama
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory
Match Prediction
Round 9 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
Maybe some early rain but otherwise a comfortable evening to enjoy some football.
Fagiano Okayama: There was no denying that Fagiano had aspirations of reaching the J1 this season with the big name, and possibly big money, signings they made this off-season. However, all has not gone according to plan.
They have only won twice this season with some very regrettable draws to restart the campaign. Not to mention they could (and should) be without some of their big name signings for this fixture. As FC Ryukyu fans, you are well aware of the fact that Okayama signed, Uejo, Tokumoto and Masutani from us this off season in addition to signing Paulinho from Matsumoto; two goal keepers from Kawasaki Frontale; and Shintaro Shimizu from Omiya Ardija. When coupled together with their very talented striker, Lee Yong Jae, it made for a very nice attack for Fagiano. However, goals have been hard to come by as of late and Uejo has failed to fire this year. Factor in the Paulinho injury and you have a team that resembled FC Ryukyu when Nakagawa was traded away and the goals dried up.
Over their last five matches Okayama are 1-1-3 and have been outscored 2 to 1 (3/6) in that span. The loss of the Paulinho is really being felt through the middle which is only exacerbated by the absence of Tokumoto at LB. There has been no indication of an injury to Tokumoto but he hasn’t featured in the lineup since match day 6. To Tokumoto’s credit, he has 1 goal and 1 assist this season and was looking in fine form prior to whatever injury he picked up.
Yong Jae is the leading scorer for Okayama (3) but Uejo has yet to find the back of the net. He has created plenty of chances for Fagiano but none of his shots have fallen. I could see him ending his goalless drought against FC Ryukyu on Saturday as it feels like he is due for a goal after watching the past 5 matches for Okayama.
Speaking of those matches, it is evident that all the talent they bought up top cannot cover the cracks in defense at the back. Sound familiar? Okayama may pack the box in defense with their 4-4-2 formation but they often let attackers get free around them and have trouble clearing the deflected shots in the 18-yard box. While I am not sure on the amount of possession they have averaged during the past five games, I am sure that they prefer paying a nice long through ball, or ball over the top of the opposition’s defense, as many of the attackers are very adept at turning these long passes into breakaway opportunities.
If this were a completely healthy Okayama side that FC Ryukyu were facing on Saturday I would have some serious trepidation and concern. However, it is anything but, and while I can easily assume Okayama will feel confident facing a side that has yet to win, I think they are ripe for the picking and can be done in by Ryukyu.
Fagiano Okayama Injuries & Suspensions: There are some notable ones. MF Paulinho has torn his right quad/hamstring and is out for at least another 5 weeks. FWD Miniero is in the middle of an 8 week injury to his left knee. And then there is the odd disappearance of LB Tokumoto as no injury has been reported but he hasn’t appeared in some time. Finally, long time FC Ryukyu defender Kosuke Masutani is still sidelined from a hip issue he suffered in the interim period of the 2020 season.
Match Day 8 Starters for Both Clubs
FC Ryukyu: A change to the formation was finally enacted by Higuchi who may have been prompted to do so after the injury to Shinji Ono thus leaving only 2 healthy CMs in Uesato and Koki Kazama. Whatever the case, the new 4-1-4-1 finally put our greatest strength in the lineup and it was evident early on that this is the way forward for Ryukyu.
Granted, Ryukyu did not have much possession against Iwata, but they did limit the free shots on net from dangerous areas and if anything, better defending will lead to more goals for FC Ryukyu. Okayama may very well come out and dominate Ryukyu in the possession category tomorrow, but they are struggling for creativity up top with FC Ryukyu starting to gain some momentum in that department.
Chances are we some changes to the side that faced Iwata but the formation change at least provides more flexibility in the personnel selection for Ryukyu. Tanaka has proven time and time again, that a true Full Back is not required to play what is actually a Wing Back position in Higuchi’s set up. Numata is also need of some serious rest before he picks up a stress injury and I wouldn’t mind seeing one of the younger MF players give him a break.
If Hiuguhi can find the right mix of starters and substitutes tomorrow, Ryukyu can snatch that first victory.
FC Ryukyu Injury & Suspensions: Shinji Ono suffered an injury to his Right MCL which will keep him out of the lineup for the next 2 months. Higuchi intimated in one of the recent FC Ryukyu email magazines that Kawai may have returned to training but is not match fit. Fingers crossed that Kawai is match fit and can put in a limited shift at the end of tomorrow’s game.
5. Keys to Victory
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. It all starts in the Locker Room. Likelihood 3: First there is the conviction to stick with the 4-1-4-1 by Higuchi. Then there is the personnel selection as some players are in need of rest. Finally, it is the belief that you will win as it is no longer a question of whether or not Ryukyu can compete, it has become a question of their mental toughness and resolve.
2. Substitutes and their timing are Key. Likelihood 3: When Okayama quickly figures out that their game plan is not working, and introduce some fresh legs, Higuchi must be prepared to counter. The inverse is also true but for now we’ll focus on Ryukyu foiling Okayama’s plans tomorrow. Though I may regret saying this, starting with fresh legs at RB/LB and not needing to bring on defensive subs late is probably key.
3. Create some Chaos in the Okayama Defense. Likelihood 4: The first shot does not necessarily need to be a goal each time but FC Ryukyu need to be prepared to pounce on all rebounds as the Okayama defense finds itself flatfooted.
6. Match Prediction
Going for broke on this one. Fagiano are missing some key offensive pieces and are susceptible to break downs at the back. FC Ryukyu score multiple goals for the second time all season and come away with the 2-1 victory.
7. Round 9 in J2
Oddly, there is only one game scheduled for Saturday night and both Ryukyu and Okayama drew that short straw. While all games are “thigh rubbers” for Ryukyu fans these days, the true “thigh rubbing” match of Round 9 falls to (2) Omiya Ardija hosting (3) Avispa Fukuoka on Sunday. The other one of note is (9) Kyoto Sanga FC welcoming in (8) Machida Zelvia as there seems to be some troubling brewing inside the Kyoto ranks due to their sluggish start.
8. Conclusion
Neither side thought that they would find themselves at their current spot in the table at this point in the season. But it doesn’t matter. Both have a chance to “get right” this Saturday and I feel that FC Ryukyu will be the one walking off the pitch with heads held high and smiles across their faces on Saturday. You see, we’ve come to learn one important thing about FC Ryukyu during this tumultuous stretch of adversity. They never give up. Now it is time they set things straight.
Time for the second of fifteen mid-week games for FC Ryukyu. This week Ryukyu welcome in Jubilo Iwata fresh off their 2-0 loss to Tokushima Vortis this past Saturday with FC Ryukyu returning to Okinawa after their 1-1 draw in Ehime.
Jubilo will be looking to climb back up the table at the expense of an FC Ryukyu team who are currently lacking confidence and wins. It is likely that we see many teams drop points during these mid-week fixtures as the season progresses and I hope that this is the week that FC Ryukyu exorcise their demons, and grab that first win of the year.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 7 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 7 Recap: Jubilo Iwata
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory
Match Prediction
Match Day 8 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
Nice weather is finally in the forecast for a change.
2. Match Day 7 Recap: FC Ryukyu
A hard-fought draw that nearly was a win if we didn’t hit the woodwork, narrowly miss a FK and have the last shot on net just squeak wide after rolling across the mouth of goal.
FC Ryukyu: The pain and frustration of not winning is written all over the faces of the team. Each missed shot, missed opportunity, and conceded goal feels like a millstone around the neck of a drowning team. It is certainly not from a lack of trying as all the players are giving maximum effort in search of that elusive first win. So why are they failing?
I would venture to guess that it is a mix of the current system and a bit of bad luck. In the two years under Higuchi, I have never seen him make any changes to the 4-2-3-1 formation. I am sympathetic to the fact that a change to the system is no easy undertaking, or a solution to your current problems. But I do not feel we are leveraging our greatest strength at FC Ryukyu; the quality and depth of our mid field players.
I wrote a piece on Sunday about switching over to a 3-4-3 so please check that out if you wish to read more details pertaining to the argument for a change in the current system. In the meantime, let’s see if FC Ryukyu can defeat a team that is looking quite average for just having come down from the J1.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: MF Shinji Ono is likely out for a while and we are waiting for the injury diagnosis for his right knee. Still no word on Shuto Kawai’s return.
Jubilo Iwata: I guess you could say that Jubilo lost to the teams you’d expect them to loose too; drew with a team that you’d expect them draw; and beat the teams you’d expect them to defeat. They have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses over their last five games with an even 5/5 goals scored, goals conceded record. In other words, average.
But that is still far better than what FC Ryukyu have achieved up to this point. The eye test sees a team that has the same type of struggles FC Ryukyu are experiencing when it comes to scoring and conceding and nothing in the past 5 Jubilo matches really jumps off the screen. They failed to score against Okayama when Fagiano went down to 10 men; they made a costly mistake against Fukuoka (ala Daisei Suzuki vs Renofa); they had a PK saved against Giravanz; and they had no answer for Vortis this past weekend.
If anything, FC Ryukyu need to be concerned with Lukian who is Jubilo’s leading goal scorer bagging 3 goals in his past 4 games. Since his brace against Renofa, Lukian looks to be getting into a nice rhythm and he definitely seems like the type of player that out central defenders will struggle to contain on Wednesday.
Jubilo Iwata Injuries & Suspensions: None to the incumbent starters though they reported an injury to one of their defenders, Kentaro Oi, this week. He hasn’t featured since the opening day in February so nothing really to report.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Play relaxed: Likelihood 2. If Ryukyu press too hard without success, the pressure will mount and then mistakes will be made. I doubt we are going to stop Jubilo from scoring tomorrow so it is best to not place any additional pressure on the already slumped shoulders of this team. Few are expecting us to win, therefore, play with a little bit of reckless abandonment and enjoy yourselves.
6. Match Day 8 Prediction
This one feels like it could end in a 1-1 draw but i’ll err on the side of caution and say that Jubilo win 2-1.
7. Around J2 on Match Day 8
All the games kickoff at 1900 this week so some of you will have some tough choices as to which one(s) you are going to watch. The tasty ones seem to be (8) Kitakyushu vs (3) Tokushima; (11) Zelvia vs (13) Matsumoto and (8) Kanazawa vs (2) Omiya.
8. Conclusion
So many of the past entries displayed a negative tone with FC Ryukyu in the midst of a win less drought since the restart. If anything, the players need our support, a boost of confidence and to get the monkey off their back with a win. For a team like us, in places like this, we need all the hope we can get. Personally, “I still believe” in the potential of this team and hope that a change in their fortunes comes quickly.
251 days. That is how long it has been since FC Ryukyu last won a competitive football match. That win also happened to come against Ehime FC on the road last year near the end of the season. However, things are much different for both sides as Ehime are much improved while Ryukyu’s current struggle for form has seen their fortunes reversed from last year. We may very well witness another blowout this Saturday barring some major improvements during the layoff between matches for FC Ryukyu.
Weather Forecast
Match Day 6 Recap: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 6 Recap: Ehime FC
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day 7 Prediction
Match Day 7 Around J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
Maybe another wet one with a few showers being called for tomorrow.
2. Match Day 6 Recap: FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu controlled large portions of the game, but Renofa Yamaguchi were more clinical in front of goal with their opportunities.
Ehime played Kyoto tough though they ended up losing 2-1.
4. Team Previews and Injury Report
Ehime FC. Ehime started fast after the restart by winning 2 games in a row over Tokushima Vortis and Renofa Yamaguchi, and they did so in convincing fashion. They came back from 3 goals down to defeat Vortis 4-3 and then crushed Renofa 3-0 the following week. Since that Renofa match, it has been tough sledding for Ehime.
The goals dried up against stiffer competition but Ehime still performed well during the course of their current 3-game losing streak. Defeats to V-Varen Nagasaki, Fagiano Okayama and Kyoto Sanga FC have derailed the once promising start to their season, though they were a bit unlucky versus Kyoto as they had two late chances to equalize.
FC Ryukyu will see a familiar face in Taishi Nishioka tomorrow and the man has been in bang form since the restart. I believe he has had a hand in 5, if not more, of Ehime’s goals since June. His crosses look deadly and he is scoring goals from inside the opponents 18-yard box with his ability to always find himself in the right place, at the right time. We saw much of the same at the start of last year for Ryukyu by Taishi before his form quickly fell off and he fell out of favor with the current regime. Well he has found a new lease on life and taking every advantage of it.
Ehime get a nice change of pace this week when they welcome in bottom side FC Ryukyu and will look to get back to their winning ways. Nothing stops a losing streak and goalless drought like the worst team in the league visiting your home ground.
Ehime FC Injuries and Suspensions. None to report from their starting 11 or subs they’ve used this season.
Starting Lineups from Match Day 6
FC Ryukyu. Not much to preview. FC Ryukyu have been constantly shuffling their back line and GK in an attempt to stop the bleeding. FC Ryukyu are also struggling for goals at the moment which makes for a lethal combination. While Ryukyu can generate some forward thrust, there is a lack of creativity that seems to stall our attacks once they reach the 18-yard box.
I cannot explain why this phenomenon occurs, only that I hope it goes away soon. Last week I thought the breakout for this side was going to take place. Obviously, it didn’t, and my only hope this week is that the overall performance of the team improves, regardless of the outcome.
FC Ryukyu Injuries and Suspensions: Still no word as to when, or if, Shuto Kawai has returned to training.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Maybe I should change the title for this section to, “Keys to Scoring and Not Conceding” for FC Ryukyu.
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Exploit the Ehime “Brain Farts.” Likelihood 3: As I mentioned earlier in this article, Ehime have played decent over the course of their past 5 games with the occasional mental lapse and error. The so called “brain fart.” If FC Ryukyu can exploit these, while not making many of their own mistakes, then Ryukyu have a chance at earning a point tomorrow. Make no mistake, FC Ryukyu do not have the firepower to get into a shootout with Ehime so it is imperative we capitalize on any opportunities afforded to us.
6. Match Day 7 Prediction
FC Ryukyu are hemorrhaging an average of 2.6 goals per game over their last 5 and I don’t see that changing tomorrow against Ehime. I believe our hosts will take this one 3-1.
7. Match Day 7 Around J2
This round has some pretty titanic match-ups with 4 teams inside the top 5 squaring off against one another. The biggest one being (1) V-Varen Nagasaki hosting (3) Kyoto Sanga FC.
8. Conclusion
A win sure would be nice as FC Ryukyu currently find themselves “down in a hole” at the bottom of J2. And it is a massive hole they need to dig out of as well. As @J2KantoBites so rightly said on the latest installment of the J-Talk Extra Time podcast, “it is bleak for FC Ryukyu fans when you look at the teams that FC Ryukyu were expected to be surrounded by in the table and there is a realistic possibility that we could finish 15 points behind them come seasons end.”
What fun times we’ve had so far! Near misses and blow out losses. That is how I would sum up both sides performance over the past 3 weeks. Both sides are win less since the restart with Renofa having surrendered 11 goals compared to FC Ryukyu’s 9. Renofa has scored twice as many goals, while facing similar type of opponents as FC Ryukyu, so both sides will be looking to end their win less drought come Saturday. The question becomes, who wants it more?
Weather Report
Match Day 5 Review: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 5 Review: Renofa Yamaguchi
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Day 6 Prediction
Around J2 on Match Day 6
Conclusion
1. Weather Report
Another wet forecast is in the offering for this match.
2. Match Day 5 Review: FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu earned a draw against V-Varen Nagasaki this past Wednesday. Watch the video clip and then read my review of the match.
Renofa Yamaguchi were decimated 4-0 by Tokushima Vortis mid-week.
4. Team Previews & Injury Report
Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Ryukyu got the better of Renofa last season as they drew with them once, and defeated them on a beautifully taken shot by Kawai in the return leg. Renofa did beat FCR in the Emperor’s Cup that year but neither sides fielded their top team so I am not counting it. As far as this year is concerned, Renofa are coming off three straight losses to Vortis, Iwata, and Ehime. In those three games they have been outscored 9-1.
That is very different from how they started out this season. They defeated Kyoto 1-0 at home in February and then drew with Okayama at the restart. Renofa looked very spry in those games and maybe the long layoff between matches is the reason why.
On paper, and to the naked eye, there is not much difference between these two teams. Both are plagued by the same problems in defense; both have faced a very tough slate of games of late; and both have a poor goal difference. I said the same exact words heading into the Kitakyushu game and we all know how that turned out, so this doesn’t really buoy my confidence.
Renofa, like Ryukyu, are targeting this game for a win. And why not? FCR are currently at the bottom of the table and struggling for goals. However, as I’ll mention in the next section, Renofa may be without two of their better players on Saturday which could provide a slight edge to FC Ryukyu.
That is not to say they still don’t have talent that can score as Kazuma Takai is very capable of scorning from anywhere on the pitch. Whereas Ryukyu look to be turning things around, in the case of Renofa, they seem to be headed in the opposite direction. Renofa looked flatfooted against both Vortis and Ehime and though they were able to score against Jubilo, they allowed a considerable amount of free looks on net. The same thing we’ve been railing about when it comes to closing down attackers and clearing dead ball kicks in Okinawa applies directly to Renofa.
As I said, if I showed an outsider these highlights in black and white, they probably couldn’t tell the difference between these two squads with their past results and performances.
Renofa Yamaguchi Injuries & Suspensions: FWD Iuri. Not many details on what is afflicting him, he is just listed as injured. This is kind of big news as he is their leading goal scorer with 2 goals, and has accounted for half their goals scored this season. Maybe that is why the Renofa attack dried up after he was subbed off in the 35th minute mid-week?
There is also a possibility that starting MF, Takahiro Ko, will be sidelined after he too was subbed off early in the Vortis match. He took a nasty knock from a rash challenge and wasn’t able to continue despite trying to gut it out for a few minutes.
Anticipated Lineups for each side. Interesting enough, Renofa also started a MF at RB last week in an attempt to generate some offense.
FC Ryukyu
This match could be considered a little break in the schedule for FC Ryukyu if you simply looked at the standings. However, nothing can be taken for granted these days in Okinawa as FC Ryukyu are still in search of their first win. As I mentioned in the match day 5 review, FC Ryukyu are also looking for their first shutout and first multiple goal game this year. There is a possibility that it could happen on Saturday evening but FCR haven’t proven that they are capable of either at this point.
The low point for FC Ryukyu this season came after the 3-1 loss to Tokushima Vortis last weekend as it was on the heels of a 4-0 loss to then, bottom side Giravanz Kitakyushu (21 at the time) 4-0. A change had to be made and Higuchi did just that with six changes to last weeks lineup. The question is, did it work?
I would venture to say that it did. The offense looked much better and the defense only surrendered a goal from a set piece. Thanks in large part to the play of Keita Tanaka at RB, Daisei Suzuki at CB, Koizumi at CB and the re-introduction of Ren Ikeda to the lineup, FC Ryukyu generated 17 shots against Nagasaki.
But shots and possession will not win games, goals, and the prevention of goals, do. Maybe FCR are slow starters and it will take a few more games for them to find a rhythm and grab some wins. If you believe that, then FC Ryukyu look primed to bust out in a big way in the very near future. If you believe that they lack the finishing power at the top, then it is likely that FCR continue to pile up draws and losses with very few goals scored.
I for one believe the breakout is coming. Some of the shots will start finding creases in the defense and space around goalies. I also feel that the defense will slowly shore itself up and start choking out the attacks of our opponents, much like we saw against JEF all those days ago.
It should also be noted that last season, Higuchi rarely made changes to the lineup, both when it was and wasn’t working which was a bit frustrating, and I see very little change to the side that drew against Nagasaki tomorrow. I am basing this on the fact that FC Ryukyu have a full week between fixtures following this match and Higuchi wants to notch that first win very badly.
If past performance is any indication of future outcomes, then we could be in trouble. But again, I think FC Ryukyu will overcome the self-induced pressure of seeking their first win by taking down Renofa on their home ground tomorrow.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: We are now past the timeline FCR put out for Kawai to return from his injury. There has been no word on his health at the time of this entry and even if he did return, it is likely he’ll need two weeks to gain back strength and match fitness. But if he is healthy, and is in the lineup, then look out.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Score from set pieces. Likelihood 2: Renofa looks very lethargic when it comes to defending set pieces and corners and I think we could have a distinct height advantage over them. Generate these opportunities and end the drought of zero goals from set pieces once and for all.
2. Attack, attack, attack. Likelihood 4: Renofa’s defense will allow the same time and space we as FCR afford many of our opponents. Now is the time to get the shots on net and not just at comfortable heights for the keeper to save. Renofa is also susceptible to the counter attack from what I saw against Ehime and Vortis.
6. Match Prediction
It may not be the prettiest match up this week to watch, but I think FCR can dig out their first win this year in a gritty 2-1 victory. From my vantage point, FC Ryukyu are sort of surging while Renofa are reeling. Renofa has every right to assume they’ll walk away with all three points on Saturday as FCR’s road form is not that great, and they too are coming off some tough results. But I feel FC Ryukyu has the firepower to score whereas Renofa are missing some key pieces to their attack due to injury.
7. Match Day 6 Around J2
Not many fixtures jump off the page this week. The biggest one of them all seems to be (7) Fagiano Okayama hosting (1) V-Varen Nagasaki. Other than that, maybe the (10) Jubilo Iwata taking on (8) Giravanz Kitakyushu looks tasty.
8. Conclusion
Just your typical, bottom of the J2 Table, grudge match this weekend. And of course, the wet weather will only further complicate things. FC Ryukyu are desperately seeking their first win and Renofa need to break their losing streak so “something has to give.” With that said, let’s get after it!
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