2019

Intro

174 days. That is the amount of time that has passed since FC Ryukyu last won a road game. 69 days. This number represents the number of days since FC Ryukyu last earned a point on the road. -11. FC Ryukyu have been outscored 17 to 6 in their past 5 road matches with 4 consecutive defeats. 11. That is the number of points between FC Ryukyu and the bottom of the table. 7. The number of points that separate FC Ryukyu from 21^st placed Tochigi SC, who are in the relegation zone. 4. The number of points between FC Ryukyu and teams 18-20 in the J2 table (Kagoshima United FC, Avispa Fukuoka and FC Machida Zelvia). With 8 out of their remaining 14 games to be played on the road, this side needs to begin picking up some positive results while traveling away from Okinawa, or face the very real possibility of being relegated back to the J3.

Weather Forecast

Overcast with temperatures in the 80s and no wind should make for a pleasant viewing experience in Tokushima for the fans who attend.

Tokushima Vortis

Vortis have won 2 out of their last 5 matches where they dispatched Fukuoka and Kagoshima, and lost to Yamagata, Niigata and Kofu. Vortis are a typical mid-table side that beat the teams below them fairly regularly while normally losing to the ones above them. They were in some good form awhile back but that has seemed to escape them as of late. Vortis have only suffered 3 defeats at home all season but two of those have come within the past 3 home matches.

Similar to FC Ryukyu, Vortis lack a standout goal scorer. This may have been due to a transfer out of the club but I didn’t bother to research that notion. Against Yamagata they were awarded an early PK but then had the misfortune of having one of their best players, Kiyotake, sent off following a second yellow card for time wasting. After that they came apart in the second half and conceded 3 quick goals. Though Vortis went down early to Kagoshima, they scored two very late 1^st half goals to take the lead. They then surrendered the lead shortly thereafter on a PK only to seem them strike back for 2 quick goals in the last quarter of the game to seal the win.

Vortis were simply destroyed by both Niigata and Kofu and suffered shutouts in both matches which may have been the result of Kiyotake’s suspension. Vortis were able to stop the losing streak this past weekend against Fukuoka when they walked away with the 1-0 victory.

FC Ryukyu

The numbers I put forth in the introduction paint a very ominous picture for the club. They really need points and there is a possibility of that this week at Vortis since they are not the same surging side we saw just a couple of weeks ago. I have said things similar to this in past entries when FC Ryukyu travel and the results are always the same. A loss, or what we now would gladly settle for, a draw. Teams really take advantage of our poor road form and the lack of points earned on the road have become a monkey on the back of this club. It will take some sort of miracle to shake it loose and get back to winning ways.

I offer this suggestion. Get rid of the 4-2-3-1 since we lack a true out and out striker and we are reeling from injuries as well as transfers at the back. There is no point in having Full Backs launch poor aimed crosses to players who are simply not there or not well suited for headers. Since we no longer have Koji, why not play a 3-man strike front with Uejo and Ramon flanking any of Uehara/Ono/Tanaka/Koya? Drop down to a 3-man back line with Okazaki, Nishikawa and Fukui and leave Okazaki and Fukui out wide to allow Nishioka the ability to push a little north of the half way line. Most importantly, figure out the 3 best midfielders to team with Uesato to complete the 3-4-3. I wish for Kawai, Koizumi and Komatsu but this is highly unlikely due to injuries and whatever else is occurring behind closed doors at the club.

Player Injuries

FC Ryukyu: Tokumoto and Ishii are still dealing with the same injuries from the last preview and are unlikely to feature today.

Tokushima Vortis: Vortis will be without the services of DF Diego, MFs Kano and Sisinio and FWD Sato. None have played a large role at the club this season so there should be no surprises in the regular Vortis lineup today.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Press the Vortis defense as it seems they suffer from the same problems that afflict the Ryukyu back line. Uejo’s, and Ramon’s speed will cause the Vortis back line some issues and attacking their flanks with speed should open up space for Koya and whatever false-9 forward is starting for FC Ryukyu today.

2. Stop playing a high defensive line as Vortis will pick us apart with long balls over the top to Kiyotake and the Vortis front men. FC Ryukyu’s only defender with a little bit of pace is Fukui but if he is continually forced to make rash challenges, we are going to end up on the losing end of it at some point. Don’t put players like Nishioka – assuming Higuchi refuses to change his system – Fukui and Okazaki in dangerous positions that could alter the outcome of this match.

3. Start Ramon and other younger talented players. I think Yu needs a breather and to come off the bench with the hopes of chipping in a free-kick goal near the end. There are 14 games left and we are very near, if not already there, a “nothing to lose” point so why not ride the razors edge and see what we have in the reserves.

Match Prediction

I was correct for only the second time all season last week but I would love to be wrong this weekend. Unfortunately, you cannot bet on FC Ryukyu to achieve any positive results while traveling with likeliest of outcomes always being a loss. Tokushima Vortis 2-1.

Conclusion

FC Ryukyu have a golden opportunity today to put some separation between them and the bottom teams. The teams below FC Ryukyu all have difficult matches this week where we could see all of them losing.

(17) JEF United Chiba vs Ventforet Kofu (7)

(4) Yokohama FC vs Kagoshima (18)

(3) Kyoto Sanga FC vs Avispa Fukuoka (19)

(9) Fagiano Okayama vs FC Machida Zelvia (20)

(6) Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi SC (21)

(22) FC Gifu vs Kashiwa Reysol (1)

If that were the case, and FC Ryukyu were to win today, then FC Ryukyu have really taken a lot of pressure off themselves as well as gained some confidence heading into a crucial stretch of matches at home against two of the bottom clubs in J2. This is easier said than done, as the road woes of FC Ryukyu are well documented and nearing “punch-line” territory. Another possibility is that all these teams, including FC Ryukyu lose and the status quo is maintained for another week. In any event, good luck to those that attend and to FC Ryukyu today.

“The Stuff of Legends” Match Day 28 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. Yokohama FC 8/17/2019

Intro

FC Ryukyu enters Match Day 28 in a much better mind set compared to the last few weeks. However, this is a “new look” FC Ryukyu side as the club was very active in the summer transfer window. Koji Suzuki, Ryo Wada and Masutani have departed while we welcome in Shinji Ono, Ramon and Yuya Torikai. Yokohama FC have 8 wins and 1 draw from their past 9 matches. They are in good form right now despite the slight wobble they had on the road versus Mito this past week. There are a lot of similarities between Yokohama FC and Reysol and we all know how that game turned out for FC Ryukyu.

Weather

I think you’d be surprised if I put anything other than “rain is expected,” but once again, rain is expected. Scattered thunderstorms with temps in the high 80s that will feel like the high 90s. You know the drill, ASSEMBLE THE PONCHO ARMY!

Yokohama FC

Yokohama have been nothing short of dominant these past 9 weeks. They came from behind against Tochigi, JEF Chiba and Yamaguchi to earn 2-1, 3-1 and 4-1 wins. All of these wins were in very convincing fashion. Yokohama FC can absolutely rip teams apart at the back with speed, crisp passing and excellent finishing. Domingues added a couple of FK goals in these matches and Ibba was just abusing the Yamaguchi back line.

Avispa Fukuoka really frustrated Yokohama at home but the visitors achieved the breakthrough in the 76^th minute. Fukuoka were unlucky in that they hit the post twice earlier in the match and a possible 3^rd goal went through the legs of the keeper and across the mouth of the goal. However, it was Fukuoka who made a mistake defensively and they paid for it.

Both Mito and Yokohama FC were unlucky in the last match as each had golden opportunities to take the lead but neither side could convert. This was a good game despite the 0-0 score line as both teams are in the top 6 and you knew there weren’t going to be many opportunities for either side.

FC Ryukyu

As mentioned in the introduction, this is going to be a new FC Ryukyu team for the remaining 15 games. The loss of Koji and his 15 goals will now put tremendous pressure on players like Uejo, Ramon, Shinji and Kazama to score goals. FC Ryukyu did nothing to address their defensive woes in the transfer window unless you count shipping Masutani to Okayama out on loan. We have 4 healthy defenders at the moment and it will be the first time that all 4 start together on the back line. Not a great prospect heading into a game against a free scoring side like Yokohama.

It is not a given that the momentum and euphoric feeling from the dramatic come from behind victory over Nagasaki will carry over into this game as several of those players will not be involved. Still, it is better to have won than lost when attempting to best a top 6 side who is a good run of form.

So, it will be interesting to see the lineup Higuchi chooses for this game, how the team plays together on the pitch and the timing of the substitutes tonight. The Tokumoto injury plus the fact that we do not have a dedicated striker on the side only strengthens the idea of switching to a back 3 and adding more firepower up front. FC Ryukyu may enjoy loads of possession since they now have some creative players up front, but who will be on the receiving end to finish these plays?

Injuries

FC Ryukyu: DF #5 Tokumoto is out for another 2-3 weeks from an ankle sprain. This was to be expected, and actually could’ve been a lot worse, after Tokumoto suffered a gruesome looking injury versus Nagasaki last week.

GK #23 Ishii is still recovering from a nasal/facial fracture he suffered a few weeks back.

Both MF #36 Koya Kazama and DF #4 Okazaki were subbed off early last week and I do not know if either will be match fit for today. There is the possibility both feature but I have no updates.

Yokohama FC: Not really dealing with any injuries to their main lineup this weekend.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Don’t give up too many FKs near the 18-yard box. Yokohama FC feature two of the best free kick takers in the league with Domingues and now Shinsuke. FC Ryukyu are decent at defending FKs but sometimes come apart after the initial shot is stopped, but not completely cleared from danger.

2. Do not make stupid mistakes on defense. Yokohama has been punishing teams when they commit too many defenders to the attack and/or when a defender makes a rash or ill advised challenge. This allows Yokohama to hit sides on the break and Domingues can really pick apart your scrambling back line. Just play sound football and do not over commit the FC Ryukyu defenders forward.

3. Attack Yokohama FCs flanks with speed. If there are any weaknesses to this Yokohama side it is their defense is not as tight as some of the sides above them in the table. They were exposed against JEF, Renofa, Fukuoka and Tochigi down the sides and this is where FC Ryukyu can benefit. Uejo and possibly Ramon’s speed may prove the difference.

Match Prediction

Yokohama are very strong side and I think their good form gets the best of this new look FC Ryukyu side 3-1.

Conclusion

I think there is the feeling among many Okinawan’s that this match will feature 3 icons of Japanese football, Shinji Ono, Shinsuke Nakamura and Kazuyosji Miura. First, I hope this really fills out the Tapista as we really need a bump in our attendance levels. Plus, the weather forecast is terrible so I wasn’t expecting a large turnout today anyway. Second, I hope fans are not disappointed if we do not see all 3 of these icons feature in the match as that would require some serious luck and choreography. Miura played 62 minutes and Shinsuke played the entire 90 minutes this mid-week in their Emperors Cup game. Keep in mind that Miura is 52 years old and hasn’t featured in a league game since March with Shinsuke primarily used as a late substitute. Also, Shinji Ono hasn’t featured in any match since March and is likely to either start and be subbed off by half time or come on with about 30 minutes to go in the game. I hope that Yokohama FC dresses their players for the fans but I doubt we see all 3 on the pitch at the same time. Regardless, see you out there and good luck boys.

“The time is now, the place is here.” Match Day 27 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. V-Varen Nagasaki 8/10/2019

Intro

FC Ryukyu look to end their 5-game losing streak this Saturday when they square off with V-Varen Nagasaki at the “Tapista.” FC Ryukyu limp into this matchup after having suffered their 5^th consecutive loss which has also seen them lose 8 out of their last 9 games in all competitions. Nagasaki travel to Okinawa following 2 consecutive defeats in a row that has contributed to Varen’s recent form of losing 4 games in their last 6 matches. Much like last week, FC Ryukyu desperately need a positive result to stop this losing streak and to gain some distance between them and the relegation floor. As noted in previous entries, the teams below FC Ryukyu have been playing much better as of late and are closing the gap between them and FC Ryukyu. Will we see some of the new FC Ryukyu signings this week? Will we see an FC Ryukyu win? Something we haven’t seen in over a month.

Weather Forecast

Typhoon Lekima is leaving us with some rather terrible weather this Saturday but that should be of no surprise to any FC Ryukyu fan who lives on Okinawa. Rain is expected at every home match it seems as even though there was 0% chance of rain in the forecast the last home game, we ended up getting a little rain prior to kickoff. Well, it looks to be hot, wet and windy. Don’t you just love football?

V-Varen Nagasaki

As previously mentioned, Nagasaki are experiencing a dip in form themselves having lost 4-1 and 3-1 to Ehime FC and FC Gifu at home in consecutive weeks (not a great sign for FC Ryukyu as we’re targeting those games as winnable). Prior to those results, Nagasaki lost on the road to Mito 2-1 and then went on to defeat Kofu at home and Kagoshima on the road.

There were a couple of trends I saw in these matches: 1. Nagasaki would afford a lot of possession and opportunities to their opponent, 2. Nagasaki created very few chances of their own during these games and 3. Nagasaki almost seemed to rest their hopes on a “bend, don’t break” defense to the point where if the opponent failed to score, then Nagasaki would have a chance to win a tightly contested match with a low score line.

Maybe that means something or maybe it means nothing at all but these trends were pretty obvious during their past 5 games. Nagasaki have also brought in three J1 players during this transfer period and it looks as if Akino and Caesar will start in the Mid-Field with Ibarbo coming on late to spell one of the attacking forwards. Ibarbo will cause all sorts of issues for our defense late in the match and it will be interesting see what happens if there is a tight score line this Saturday.

FC Ryukyu

Since the start of June, 11 matches in total, FC Ryukyu have only managed 5 points out of a possible 33. That is 15% of the total amount of available points, a wining percentage of 9%, and positive outcome of 27%. Add in that FC Ryukyu have been outscored 11 to 29 during that stretch, suffered the aforementioned 5 consecutive losses, have lost 7 from the previous 8 J2 matches and now; you tell me, why is Higuchi still employed?

FC Gifu, Avispa Fukuoka, JEF United Chiba and Tochigi SC have all fired managers this season and yet FC Ryukyu continue to employ the services of an individual whose best days are well behind him. Higuchi’s refusal to change the system, questionable lineup selection and timing of substitutions all indicate that he is attempting to cover up a bullet wound with a Band-Aid.

There are 16 games remaining this season and FC Ryukyu need at least 14 more points to reach the relative safety mark of 42 points. Yet, Higuchi’s recent record indicates he will not get us close to that number. We need a serious change at manager to spark something with the players or risk sliding back down to the J3. Make no mistake, the teams beneath us in the table are playing much better and have reinforced themselves this transfer window. If you don’t believe me, watch their highlights and compare their tactics, game plans and results to that of FC Ryukyu.

FC Ryukyu have 8 home games remaining and 3 of them are this month. August (early Sep) is now the make or break part of the FC Ryukyu J2 season. Unfavorable results against a struggling Nagasaki side and lower teams FC Gifu and Kagoshima will be the death nail in the FC Ryukyu coffin.

Player Injuries

FC Ryukyu have back up GK # 23, Ishii out with what looks to be a broken nose or facial fracture that he picked up in practice this week. There may be more injuries this side is dealing with but the Ishii update is the one made public.

V-Varen Nagasaki have a couple of players out that were mainly used during their Levain Cup matches so their absence shouldn’t impact the normal starting 11 or bench reserves for Nagasaki tomorrow.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Nagasaki’s tendency to allow their opponent large amounts of possession plays directly into the overall (current) strategy/strength of FC Ryukyu. FC Ryukyu prefer to have loads of possession and play out from the back (as if we’re Real Madrid or something) but FC Ryukyu need to capitalize on their opportunities. Nagasaki will try to hit FC Ryukyu on the counter and FC Ryukyu really need to light up the score board early and often tomorrow. If FC Ryukyu can do that, then Nagasaki may have no answer and FC Ryukyu could walk away with all 3 points.

2. Take some shots/chances from distance as the Nagasaki Goal Keeper seems to have trouble stopping these types of shots. Tokushige either looks stunned and will freeze in place, or, will make a mess of things back there when there are these types of shots. Another strange phenomenon but one that shouldn’t be underestimated as it plays into the fact that FC Ryukyu currently lack creativity down the middle so let loose a few shots from distance tomorrow.

3. We will surrender a goal tomorrow, the stats indicate as much, but let’s score more than 2.

Match Prediction

“The stats don’t lie” is the famous quote and with that said, a 2-1 defeat for FC Ryukyu is the likeliest of outcomes tomorrow. Painful as that may be, refer to the side-by-side table above for further evidence as to why this outcome is the preferred choice.

Conclusion

I am as nervous, if not more nervous, than most of you for this coming weekend. FC Ryukyu have only taken 6 points on the road this season with only one of those points occurring in the last 10 road matches. That means home points are vital for FC Ryukyu’s safety. Since FC Ryukyu lost the unbeaten record at home, this side has begun to suffer some serious defeats that has seen them tumble down the table while having their goal differential being blown apart along the way. As much as I’d love to see FC Ryukyu earn 10 points from their next 4 home games, expectations have to be managed and that means that we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

This is without a doubt, the worst it has been this year for this newly promoted club. Despite the best efforts by the players on the pitch, they are beaten well in advance of the game. They are simply being outmaneuvered tactically and out coached. Good luck boys. See you out there.

“Brace Yourselves, Pain is coming.” Match Day 26 Preview: Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Ryukyu 8/4/2019

Intro

FC Ryukyu head to the Tokyo area to take on first placed Kashiwa Reysol who are currently on an 8-game unbeaten run in the J2. FC Ryukyu are sporting a 4-game losing streak and have lost 6 out of their last 7 matches. This match up is a far cry from the last time these 2 sides squared off in Okinawa on match day 8. Since that time, Reysol have gone on to win 9 matches, draw 6 times and suffer only 2 defeats whereas FC Ryukyu have drawn 4 times, lost 10 times and only won 3 matches. FC Ryukyu face an almost impossible task this weekend based on the two sides statistics and recent performances.

Weather Forecast

It is going to be hot. Temperatures may be in the 80s but it will feel like the upper 90s leading up to the match and high 80s/low 90s for most of the match. There is little chance of rain so stay hydrated people.

Kashiwa Reysol

Reysol are doing their best steam roller impression as they are absolutely flattening everyone in their path. 8 wins in a row in all competitions and they are doing it in style. It seems each of the past 8 weeks that either Cristiano or Olunga have scored and now their new signing, Matheus Savio on loan from Brazilian side Flamengo, is also getting in on the scoring action.

Reysol’s last five match results: 4-2 win over Kofu, 2-1 over Vortis after coming back to win, 1-0 win versus Kanazawa, 2-1 win over Tochigi after going down 1-0 and the 4-0 demolition of Okayama. Wow.

FC Ryukyu

I simply have no answers or reasons as to why FC Ryukyu are performing so poorly as of late. It is not as if this team has capitulated and they are doing all they can to stay in games and win matches. Unfortunately, I think they are being out coached and tactically out performed by many of their rivals. Higuchi’s false resolve and stead fast refusal to change the way FC Ryukyu prepare and execute matches has seen this side experience a series of devastating losses and results. Opponents are no longer shocked by FCR like they were earlier this season and can easily make the necessary in-game adjustments against FCR to grab all 3 points. This is not a failure of the players but a failure of the coaching staff to adjust and the players are dealing with the fall out and criticism.

Since we have no idea whose dealing with injures or dips in form, we cannot accurately assess the lineup or reserve choices for each match by Higuchi. We can critique his lineup selection, managerial decisions, and first choices off the bench though. Higuchi has preferred to make changes at the start of the second half recently and to me that signals that he has got the formation, starters and game plan all wrong from the beginning. He will then wait to make the 3^rd substitution despite being down by 2, and sometimes 3 goals, with well over a quarter or more of the match to play. The most egregious example of Higuchi’s mismanagement was his bringing on of Nishikawa, a defender, in the 85^th minute and then decision to push Okazaki up front for some added height. This indicates a last-ditch effort by a manager desperate to save his job.

Team Injuries

Kashiwa Reysol: #11 FW Yamazaki Ryohei has a torn hamstring (using the Google translate calls it separated meat-yuck!).

FC Ryukyu: #1 GK Dany Carvajal but no updates as to what is afflicting him. #13 MF Kawai Shuto didn’t feature at all last week and no updates. There are likely more but we have no idea.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

How can I even assume there are any? FC Ryukyu cannot exploit any weakness against any opponent at the moment and for them to grab any points tomorrow, it will take one of the following:

1. An absolute dip in form by Reysol that is the equivalent of diving head first off a cliff, very unlikely.

2. A miracle. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened and FC Ryukyu do play stronger teams a little tougher. Still, I put this happening at less than 1%.

Match Prediction

Kashiwa Reysol 4-0 FCR. Reysol are firing on all cylinders whereas FC Ryukyu are on fire and burning towards the bottom of J2.

Conclusion

Lets just get this over with and then focus on the next 2 home games as well as 3^rd home game this month against FC Gifu. I am hoping for the best, but expecting the worst so good luck to anyone that shows up (FC Ryukyu Kanto Supporters)!

“Circle the Wagons!” Match Day 25 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. JEF United Chiba 7/31/2019

Intro

FC Ryukyu play their third mid-week game of the season, but this time it is at home versus JEF United Chiba. FC Ryukyu have lost 3 games in a row in addition to losing 5 out of the last 6. JEF have lost 3 of their past 6 matches with the most recent loss occurring last week at home against Yokohama FC. This is definitely a ‘must win game’ for both sides. A win for FC Ryukyu will not propel them any higher up the table but it will stave off, at least for now, being drug into the relegation scrap. The same could be said about JEF with the notable exception that a win will allow them to leap frog FC Ryukyu in the standings. There is also another aspect to this match for FC Ryukyu. If FC Ryukyu fail to win at home to a lesser opponent, will it finally be the end to Higuchi’s time as manager? We shall see.

Weather Forecast

Looks like a nice forecast but it will be muggy and hot.

JEF United Chiba

On paper and on film these two sides look identical. The same things that plague FC Ryukyu also plague JEF. They lost to Zelvia and Yokohama at home from poor defending on set pieces. They drew away to the surging Vortis side in a game where I saw zero JEF attacking highlights in the second half. The so called, “parking the bus” technique maybe eschewed among some footballing fans but it got the job done that night for a point. They went down very early to FC Gifu on the road, battled back to take the lead and then ultimately let the victory slip away from a late equalizer. However, JEF followed that performance up with a resounding 3-0 win at home versus Fukuoka.

JEF are a side that can beat the teams in and around them in the table and perform decently on the road. They score a majority of their goals from the 2 forwards and if you can eliminate the amount of counter attacks, you can probably choke the life out of the JEF attack. FC Ryukyu also need to be careful on defending set pieces as Funayama has been quite good from them as of late.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu desperately require a win ahead of 3 matches in a row against top 8 sides and a Vortis side that looks very different from the team FC Ryukyu faced in week 4. FC Ryukyu are surrendering a ridiculous average of 2.40 goals conceded per game over their last 5 matches. They do fare better at home but I fear a quick goal by JEF could really put FC Ryukyu up against it. The disbelief that things are not going their way is creeping in which is only aided by the bad luck they’ve experienced. The deflection in the Mito game and the misses from point blank range versus Niigata in the second half are eroding this team’s confidence. A win here at home against JEF would be the perfect remedy.

Player Injuries

FC Ryukyu: GK #1 Dany Carvajal – No word to what is afflicting the starting GK but assume he’ll be out of this match on a short week. DF #5 Tokumoto – He played about 30 minutes of the last match so maybe we can assume he’ll be starting this game.

JEF United Chiba: MF #6 Tasaka Yusuke – Right ACL injury and is out for 6 months. Has been hurt since beginning of May.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

Normally I would lay out where a team looks vulnerable, where to attack a side, what to watch out for in defense or what type of play to execute. None of that matters when your team is slumping and needs to bust out of it in a big way. FC Ryukyu faced a similar situation a few weeks ago when Tochigi came to town so I am hoping that a short week in which JEF has to travel to Okinawa and deal with the heat will assist FC Ryukyu in grabbing all 3 points at home.

Make no mistake, with the way FC Ryukyu are playing on the road, this is a must win game. FC Gifu and Kagoshima stand out as the remaining winnable home games for FC Ryukyu this season with two games against Yokohama and Verdy that may decide the fate of this team. Nagasaki, Yamagata, Omiya and Kyoto also come to town but these are all top 8 sides that will be vying for promotion. Wins over JEF and the aforementioned Gifu and Kagoshima will add 9 points to our tally and put us roughly 5 points (5 draws) away from relative safety.

There is no doubt that FC Ryukyu can beat a side like JEF and much like the last time these two sides faced each other, it was JEF that was struggling with confidence. FC Ryukyu will need to go out there Wednesday night and execute. It is as simple as that.

Match Prediction

Until FC Ryukyu puts a stop to the hemorrhaging at the back, you’ve to err on the side of caution and predict at least 2 goals from any opponent. While that is a real possibility without Dany Carvajal in net, I think FC Ryukyu win this back and forth, cagey affair, 3-2.

Conclusion

There is so much pressure surrounding this team right now and that doesn’t help the players or the club. FC Ryukyu have never been a side that has changed a manager mid-season, at least not since they’ve entered the J.LEAGUE in 2014, but this isn’t the J3 anymore. FC Ryukyu can get demoted and that would be catastrophic to their hopes and dreams of playing in the J1. This sport, more than most, is very harsh on managers/coaches who do not perform. Rarely do you see mid-season coaching changes in other sports, and keep in mind, when those teams do make a change they do not fear being relegated from the current top level. This is a must win game for Higuchi, if he doesn’t win this game, FC Ryukyu need to consider (and should already be doing so) moving on and finding a suitable replacement that can re-energize this club and keep them in the J2 next season.

See you at the match.

Photos courtesy of FC Ryukyu & J.league

“Cob Culling” Match Day 24 Preview: Albirex Niigata vs. FC Ryukyu 7/27/2019

Intro

The FC Ryukyu “Road Show” continues this week with the boys from Okinawa visiting the Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata for a mid table clash. FC Ryukyu are coming off their third road loss in a row and will look to finally end their winless drought against Niigata. Niigata on the other hand, are also looking to get back to winning ways at home after suffering a loss to Yokohama FC which was then followed up with 2 all draw against Renofa Yamaguchi. Both sides could really use the win, so this should be an entertaining game to watch.

Weather Forecast

It looks to be another wet, rainy atmosphere for a game. Bring stuff to stay dry.

Albirex Niigata

Albirex have surrendered the opening goal in each of their last 5 matches. However, they’ve gone on to earn 2 wins and a draw during that span so all that means is that this team is resilient. Kanazawa was able to get out in front of Niigata and then retake the lead after Niigata tied the game. Kagoshima looked the better side when they took the early 1-0 lead but ended up surrendering 3 goals, albiet 2 of them taking some strange deflections, for the loss. Omiya jumped out on the front foot but couldn’t crack the Niigata back line for a second and it ultimately cost them points as Niigata scored twice to win their second consecutive match in a row. Niigata would end this 5 game stretch with a 2-0 loss at home versus Yokohama FC followed by a 2-2 draw with Renofa Yamguchi where Niigata, despite surrendering the opening goal, scored twice to take the lead, but let it slip away by allowing a very late equalizer to the hosts.

FC Ryukyu

146 days. That is the amount of days that have passed since FC Ryukyu have last won a road match. It was always going to be a tall task to beat Mito on the road, which was made even more difficult due the fact that FC Ryukyu’s #1 & #2 GK were sidelined. Despite all that, FC Ryukyu still controlled 61% of the possession against Mito and created some nice opportunities to get on the score sheet. Unfortunately, Mito were more clinical with their limited opportunities and went into halftime up 2-0 and I for one thought this game was going to turn ugly. FC Ryukyu battled back for a quick goal in the second half but when the game transitioned to faster paced back forth match, it was FC Ryukyu that conceded the third goal instead of hitting the equalizer.

It is not all doom and gloom though from the FC Ryukyu camp. Yes, they were soundly beaten by Okayama the week prior but they did manage to win a ‘must-win’ game versus Tochigi 2 weeks ago. They battled back against Nagasaki late and if anything, it displays a penchant for never giving up. The slumped shoulders, dropping heads and disbelief at results that plague so many of the teams in poor form has not hit the Ryukyu camp and that is an encouraging sign. All we need now is for some positive results to go their way and for FC Ryukyu to snap out of this slump.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Execute all the little things correctly. This starts with cutting down on turnovers and producing better passing in the opponents third of the pitch. FC Ryukyu are a side that can control the pace of the game with their large amounts of possession but can get hit quickly on the break when they needlessly give the ball away. FC Ryukyu are missing that final pass or two that can unlock an opponents back line and they’d do well to find it today.

2. Exploit Niigata’s weakness at defending set pieces. Niigata let in a few goals from set pieces the past few weeks and it seems to be an area in which they do not defend well. FC Ryukyu on the other hand, need to be better at their set pieces. Masutani scored off a Corner Kick against Mito but FC Ryukyu really need to capitalize on any Free Kicks near Niigata’s 18-yard box. The set pieces do not have to be shots on net as quick changes in direction from headers off of lofted crosses could pull the Niigata defense apart and create a shooting lane.

3. Place well aimed shots on net and get as many attackers into the box as we can. FC Ryukyu had a lot of shots against Mito but many missed the mark. Generate some shots from the flanks that require the goal keeper to make a save and possibly push out a rebound to an open FC Ryukyu player or at the very least, set up more set piece opportunities.

4. Stop the bleeding at the back. Averaging 3 goals conceded over your last 5 matches is a recipe for disaster. It is likely that we see Ishii or Inose in net today but the problem doesn’t start with our goal keepers. FC Ryukyu cannot bomb the defenders forward in hopes of creating a numerical advantage in the attack as this leaves them wide open for counter attacks. Instead, we need a little bit of creativity in the mid field that can allow our defenders to sit back and defend instead of holding a high line.

5. Uejo needs to be in the starting lineup.

Match Prediction

The fact that FC Ryukyu are hemorrhaging 3 goals a game doesn’t bode well for their chances this week despite Niigata’s 5 losses at home and -1 goals scored/goals conceded ratio. The recent form of FC Ryukyu indicates that they will concede one, two and most likely 3 goals this match against Niigata, but if they can put a stop to the bleeding at the back, then FC Ryukyu have a shot at points today. The most likely result is another 3-2 loss on the road.

Conclusion

I for one am tired of opponents circling the FC Ryukyu fixture on their home calendar as an easy 3 points. However, until FC Ryukyu actually produce a win on the road, you cannot blame our opponents for thinking they can get all 3 points or at the very least, 1 point. FC Ryukyu haven’t had a favorable match-up on the road since the FC Gifu game back in early May and today’s game against Niigata, a side they’ve already beaten this year, offers a glimmer of hope. In the end, the boys will have to go out there and get the job done, and that wont come easy.

I am jealous for all that are attending this game as Niigata really packs them in at the Denka and averages nearly 15,000 spectators for home games. Hopefully FC Ryukyu can silence that crowd and walk out of there with some points.

“Augean Task” Match Day 23 Preview: Mito Hollyhock vs. FC Ryukyu 7/21/2019

Weather Forecast: What did you expect? It seems the rainy season is either in full swing or just ending in mainland Japan so it will be another rainy, wet, terrible day to watch football. Thank goodness its on the road and not at home. Pack your towel, FC Ryukyu poncho and a change of clothes for your long commute back home if you plan on attending.

FC Ryukyu heads to the Ibaraki Prefecture this Sunday evening to take on 5^th placed Mito Hollyhock in what seems to be a logistical nightmare for any traveling FC Ryukyu fans. Thank you very much J. LEAGUE scheduler for this one (the last train to depart Mito for Tokyo leaves at 1800). In their first matchup this season, FC Ryukyu got the better of a strong Mito side 1-0 at home but the fortunes of both teams have changed since that evening in May. FC Ryukyu’s recent form has been below par seeing that they’ve only won once in their past 5 matches and are conceding almost 3 goals a match. Mito, has also seen their once formidable defense that started so strongly this season begin to develop several cracks. This could largely be attributed to the departure of CB ITO Makito to Yokohama F Marinos in June, and since then, Mito have conceded nearly the same amount of goals they did during their previous 18 matches.

The statistics paint a very bleak picture for FC Ryukyu but that seems to be the case most weeks outside of the teams directly below FC Ryukyu in the table. Mito have only lost once at home all season where they own an impressive 0.70 goals against average. FC Ryukyu’s road struggles are well documented and now that FC Ryukyu are conceding 2.00 goals on average on the road, this seems like a tall ask to get any sort of favorable outcome tomorrow night for FCR. FC Ryukyu faced a similar challenge when Mito visited them at home earlier this year but FC Ryukyu are a different side at home and they’ve only had one positive performance in their last 5 road matches.

Mito Hollyhock

Mito are coming off a win that was preceded by 3 straight draws and a loss. Mito couldn’t quite breakdown the strong defensive side in Yamagata and suffered a 1-0 loss. Mito followed that up with a disappointing draw at home to Yokohama FC after Yokohama went down to 10 men early in the match and then allowed Yokohama to equalize later in the match despite the advantage.

Mito then had games on the road versus Kyoto and Kanazawa in which they went up early, conceded two goals and then fought back to earn draws. They ended this 5-game stretch with a rather impressive performance at home against Nagasaki but nearly gifted the visitors a draw at the end by allowing Nagasaki a couple of close chances.

Mito still retains a lot of the same traits we saw at the beginning of the season that made them so successful. They don’t chase games despite being behind on the scoreboard and rely heavily on a stout defense to keep them in many of their matches. As mentioned earlier, the defense is developing cracks and can be gotten at with quality set pieces but for the most part, the 4-4-2 set up Mito employs will make life very difficult for FC Ryukyu. As we’ve seen throughout this season, FC Ryukyu lacks a bit of creativity to break down sides who use this formation.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu have won only once in the past 2 months and are really struggling to arrest their slide down the J2 table. FC Ryukyu may not break out of this funk until later this month when they host JEF Chiba United at home on a Wednesday night because we can not assume that FC Ryukyu will gain any positive points on the road despite the quality of their opponent. We really need to see some signs of life from the boys over the next 2 weeks in their consecutive road games as it would prove massive for their hopes of staying in the J2 next season. Like many sides below them in the table that have a month with a nice stretch of favorable games, FC Ryukyu’s doesn’t occur until October and there are no guarantees that those opponents will be in the same form they are in now when we face them.

FC Ryukyu’s recent match against Okayama was very disappointing and FCR really struggled to create any opportunities up front. I believe they only had one shot on net, and that was the Uesato FK on the final play of stoppage time, but someone mentioned that DAZN said we had 2. Regardless, that is not what you expect from a team that strives to be on the attack and hunting for goals. The careless turnovers and lack of quality passing really deflated the FCR attack in the opponent’s half and FCR lacked creativity near the 18-yard box. Too many times it seemed as if the FCR midfielders would pull up and pass back instead of pressing the attack or trying to run past the defenders. I am not sure if that is attributed to fatigue, lack of speed or lack of anyone else in the attack making any runs or movements that would entice a pass from one of our players.

FC Ryukyu are at a point where an uplifting performance maybe the spark that ignites a nice run of games as well as put some distance between them and the bottom of the table. It is now 140 days and 9 matches since FC Ryukyu last won on the road.

Injuries

FC Ryukyu: Tokumoto-Still delaing with an MCL injury he picked up recovering from a soft tissue ankle injury. Another few weeks away from returning to the lineup.

Mito Hollyhock: Unknown, the website I usually use is now saying I am restricted from accessing that info and I am not sure where else to look.

Keys to an FC Ryukyu Victory

1. Only one. Someone has to step up, put this team on their back and have one of their best performances of the season to see out an FC Ryukyu victory. Koji Suzuki and Dany have done so much this year but what I am referring to is someone like Kawai, Yu, Kazama, Uejo, Tanaka, Wada or Uesato who just takes the game over. Someone needs to be aggressive in both the attack and defense, motivates the players around him by example so they will perform at their very best, is surgical with his passing to unlock the defense and is lethal in front of goal. If FC Ryukyu gets that type of Herculean performance out of someone tomorrow, we may very well see this side right the ship and get back on track. If we don’t, the beatings will most likely continue until moral improves.

Match Prediction

Mito 2-1. Impossible to predict positive FC Ryukyu outcomes on the road until something changes.

Conclusion

This game, as well as the remaining road matches for FC Ryukyu, comes down to every man doing their part to win their individual battles. Mito are not invincible and are possibly slowing down after their blazing start to the season. But at the same time, FC Ryukyu are struggling for form and are looking for someone to step up and lead them out of this dark period and back into the light. Who will that be?

“The Heat is On” Match Day 22 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs. Fagiano Okayama

Weather Forecast: FINALLY! A great forecast for today’s match. Partly cloudy, temperatures in the high 80s with plenty of humidity, but most importantly, no rain!

The second half of the season gets underway today in Okinawa where 13^th placed FC Ryukyu take on 10^th place Fagiano Okayama. Okayama got the best of FC Ryukyu the last time these two teams met when they were awarded, and then converted, a PK. FC Ryukyu are coming of an uplifting 3-0 victory at home over Tochigi SC last week and Okayama visit the Tapista riding a 2-game win streak. This should be a very entertaining match today as both teams have similar attacking styles and the 2 leading scorers in the J2 face off once more. It was Lee Yong Hae who got on the score sheet the last time they squared off; will it be Suzukui’s turn today?

Fagiano Okayama

Okayama came from behind at home last week to defeat Kagoshima with 2 very late goals. Kagoshima dictated a lot of the game up till the end when a bad call by the referee awarded Okayama a PK that ultimately sealed the fate of Kagoshima. Prior to that match, Okayama had their doors blown off by Yokohama FC 5-1. The Okayama defense was ripped to shreds several times by the quick, long through balls by Yokohama and that seems to be a good way to get behind the Okayama defenders.

They drew twice against Renofa and Machida with 1-1 score lines where they let both these games slip through their fingers. Their defending let them down again despite one of the best goals scored in J2 this season by Okayama. Takeda hit an absolute rocket shot from the top of the box that found the top corner of the goal but that wasn’t enough against Renofa.

Make no mistake, Okayama have the fire power to score goals but they are not the strongest side when traveling or facing teams in the bottom half of the table. While this isn’t to be considered a “must win” game for FCR, it is an opportunity to grab a win against a side that is near FCR in the table and could help offset some unfavorable score lines later this season against stronger sides. FCR are just a better team when they play at home and therefore have a real shot at grabbing all3 points today.

Fagiano Players to Watch

#9 FW Lee Yong Hae: 12 goals this year but hasn’t scored in his last 2 games. Scored the last time these 2 sides met and is a tall, strong, quick striker that FCR had a real hard time dealing with in the first match.

#19 MF Hayato Nakama: 6 goals scored this season. Forms a very nice strike partnership with Hae and has provided him so excellent service this year.

#7 FW Seiya Nakano: Third leading scorer on Okayama with 5 goals. Used primarily as a substitute and provides a nice punch when coming off the bench.

FC Ryukyu

The boys finally decided to put an end to the 3-game losing streak by completely dismantling the Tochigi side last Saturday. FC Ryukyu controlled the pace of the game, were lethal in front of goal and really choked out the Tochigi SC attack. That type of effort is again going to be required for FC Ryukyu to grab all 3 points today as Okayama are a much better side than Tochigi.

FC Ryukyu will need Kawai to stretch the defense and allow players like Yu, Ochi and especially Suzuki to find the running/shooting lanes for goal scoring opportunities. If FC Ryukyu take the same approach to defending, they did last week but not holding a high defensive line, then we can limit the amount of counterattacks by players like Hae and Nakama. The Okayama defense is nothing special and can be unlocked with quick, accurate passing. If nothing else, it is likely that FC Ryukyu will draw plenty of fouls in and around the Okayama box with this type of play and then we could let Yu, Kazama and Uesato do their thing on FKs.

It is really simple math for FCR; score, defend, reduce turnovers and you will win. FCR needs to build a little bit of consistency moving forward and this is a great match to continue a nice run of form.

Injuries

Fagiano Okayama: #10 FW Mineiro – had a sprained MCL but it looks as if he is past the estimated recovery window of 6-8 weeks.

FC Ryukyu: #5 DF Tokumoto – recovering from an MCL sprain he picked up while rehabbing from an ankle sprain. Another 3 weeks away from returning to the lineup.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Set the tone. Okayama undoubtably have two serious playmakers in the squad but that is about it. The Okayama GK is average and the defense is like wet toilet paper, effective at times but not the preferred method.

2. Execute a balanced attack. Stretch Okayama from either side and don’t concentrate all your efforts on one side. Okayama can be beaten through the middle and down the flanks so use Kawai’s speed and Yu’s passing to free up Suzuki in front of goal. Uesato and Kazama should look for nice long through balls to let Suzuki run at the Okayama goal.

3. Defend in packs. Wolves hunt in packs and FCR should start defending the same way. FCR are good enough to be venomous on the counter but need to reinforce the back when under siege. All kidding aside, this isn’t the time to get cute, defend like you did against Tochigi and everything will be alright.

Match Prediction

The numbers are there for everyone to see. FC Ryukyu are a home team as is Okayama. Okayama is not the same team when traveling as evidenced by the amount of goals they concede. 2 goals could once again prove the difference for FCR on the day. FCR 2-2 Okayama.

Conclusion

This is big game for FC Ryukyu as they were able to get two weeks in a row at home and that should recharge a lot of the guys since they were not forced to travel. FC Ryukyu head out o the road for 2 games starting next week and a win here would serve them really well. This should be an up and down match that hopefully see’s Okayama tire in the second half since they are not acclimatized to the heat/humidity here in Okinawa. It should be a great day to watch football so hopefully like Okinawa community will come out in full force for this game.

“No Time for Monkey Business” Match Day 21 Preview: FC Ryukyu vs Tochigi SC

Weather Forecast: Another match at home in which it will be raining. This is the 4^th match in a row in which FC Ryukyu will be playing in wet conditions. It looks to be around 80 degrees for most of the match with an 70% chance of rain. Assemble the Poncho Army once more!

Introduction

FC Ryukyu enter Match Day 21 having suffered 2 defeats in a row, 3 if you count the Emperor’s cup. Tochigi were entering this match winless over the past 2 months but they were able to pull off a victory against Yamagata during the Emperor’s Cup mid-week. Both sides will want to leave this match with maximum points so this maybe a very cagey match with both sides wanting to to get out in front early. Keep in mind, Tochigi need the 3 points to start pushing themselves clear of the bottom whereas FC Ryukyu want to keep a nice 11-12-point buffer between them and the “drop zone.”

Tochigi SC

Tochigi SC are struggling side who do not create many opportunities that can generate a lot of goals. They have only scored 3 times during the past 5 matches and were shut out in 3 of them. No single player really jumped off the screen during the preview so I had a hard time determining who the play makers are in the Tochigi squad.

Tochigi’s last match against Ehime saw them concede two late goals, within the last 5 minutes of the game, in what was one of those “6-point” matches that are so crucial to teams at the bottom of the table. In that match, they were able to convert one PK for a goal at the end of the first half but failed to convert the second PK at the 73 minute mark which could of drastically changed the trajectory for the match. They then had a near miss a couple of minutes later only too see them concede two headed goals by Ehime. In each instance there seemed to be a lot of ball watching but little man marking in the box by the Tochigi defense.

Bottom line, Tochigi are a side that struggle to produce in the attack and can be broken down at the back by better attacking sides. They, much like FC Ryukyu, have not had a lot breaks go their way this season and FC Ryukyu could’ve been in the same situation Tochigi currently find themselves in if things hadn’t broken our way in some key matches.

Players to Watch

#9 FW Masashi Oguro. Tochigi’s top goal scorer this season with 5 goals and 2 assists. Oguro is returning from injury, possibly slowly, so he may only feature as a substitute this week. Hopefully that is the case as Tochigi are a different side when Oguro is in the lineup. All 3 of Tochigi’s wins came when Ogura played and during his absence, Tochigi tied 3 times while losing 4. They were only able to score 4 goals in his absence (6 matches).

#10 MF Kazuki Nishiya. Has tallied 4 goals and 1 assist for Tochigi. May possess some speed that could trouble the Ryukyu defenders but hard to tell from limited game film. Plays LM/LFWD behind the striker in Tochigi’s formation.

#37 MF Akira Hamashita. Leads Tochigi in assists with 3. Plays down the right side behind the striker.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu are at a crossroads for their season. They are coming off of two heavy defeats that saw the side concede 8 goals. The strange part is they conceded all 8 of these goals in a row before adding 2 of their own at the end of the Nagasaki match. They’ve steadily increased their goal tally each of the past 3 matches but that has come at the cost of conceding 10 goals during the past 3 matches that saw their goal differential dropping into the negative for the first time all year. FC Ryukyu will need a combination of points and goal difference to ensure safety this year and that cannot be understated.

I worry that FC Ryukyu committed too many of the starters to the mid-week Emperor’s Cup matchup where Tochigi only started their FWD #19 Oshima. This signals to me that Ogura is probably match fit and ready to take back his starting position up front. I am concerned over the mid-week matchup lineup selection because FC Ryukyu will need to control a lot of the possession in this game and that could be difficult on tired legs. I have my own views on the Emperor’s Cup but I am glad that FC Ryukyu are out of that tournament and able to focus solely on the remainder of the J2 season.

Whether FC Ryukyu are dealing with a bevy of injures to reserve players or some players are just struggling for form, nothing indicates to me that FC Ryukyu have a lot of depth to this squad. It is strange where some players feature, flash a bit of quality, and then disappear for long stretches of time without any word as to why. Perfect examples are the disappearance of Uehara after the Yokohama match early last month and now the reemergence of Koizumi in the Emperor’s Cup lineup when he’s been off the substitute list for so long. I am not sure if Higuchi is preferring to stay with the players he knows and trusts, and that means shuffling the lineup with only the 13-14 players we’ve seen all season, or there is something going on in the FC Ryukyu squad that we are not privy too.

FC Ryukyu should view this as a must win, winnable match at home against a struggling Tochigi side that is looking to claw their way out of the bottom. The fact is, 2 goals by FC Ryukyu could be the difference on the day as the visitor’s do not score that many goals, the question remains, can we get there without conceding 2 of our own?

Injuries

FC Ryukyu: #5FB Tokumoto. Tokumoto has picked up a new injury to his MCL during his recovery from an ankle injury last month. The new MCL injury will sideline Tokumoto for an additional 3-4 weeks but doesn’t seem to be as serious as the MCL injury that Nishioka may have been dealing with earlier in the season that saw him miss upwards of 8 weeks.

Tochigi SC: #20 MF Yudai Iwama. He looked as if he was a regular starter for Tochigi this season before he tore his ACL which will see him miss the rest of the season.

FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

1. Dominate the possession battle. Tochigi has alternated between a 3-4-3 and 4-4-2 formation for the last few weeks and neither has really produced the “spark” the manager was aiming for. They have conceded 8 times over the span of 5 weeks and only scored 3 goals. FC Ryukyu need to control the pace of this match with large amounts of possession to further reduce the already few attempts Tochigi produces each match.

2. Cap off drives with goals. Ryukyu are averaging better than 50% possession over their past few matches but all that possession hasn’t led to a massive increase in goals. Ryukyu have scored 6 goals over the past 3 matches but always run the risk of conceding when they commit so much of their defense into the attack. FC Ryukyu can put this game out of reach very quickly with 2 first half goals.

3. Crowd the front of the Tochigi goal on all set pieces. Tochigi have let in a few “cheap goals” in the past few matches and it could be contributed to the large amounts of traffic, and probably confusion, in front of the Tochigi Goal Keeper. Whether this stems from poor communication among the Tochigi defenders, the constant switching of the defensive back line formations, defenders being timid or just bad luck it really doesn’t matter as it is a weakness that should be exploited by FC Ryukyu.

4. Play sound football. This means crisp, accurate passes to unlock the Tochigi defense, reducing wasteful turnovers while in possession and stopping the goal scoring tear our opponents have been on as of late. This last key could be the overall keys to every match but are things that FC Ryukyu need to execute in order to see out tough matches and earn 3 points.

Match Prediction

FC Ryukyu average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded at home whereas Tochigi average a paltry .60 goals scored on the road while conceding an average of 1.00 goals. FC Ryukyu over Tochigi 2-1.

Conclusion.

The match this weekend should not be considered an “easy win” for FC Ryukyu despite the standings in the table and the recent performance of Tochigi. I believe these two sides are more similar than the standings indicate (refer to the side by side comparison table above). FC Ryukyu have struggled mightily against teams at the bottom of the table and maybe thats because FC Ryukyu cannot deal with the zero sum approach many lower sides adopt. FC Ryukyu have lost to JEF Chiba, F.C. Gifu and Kagoshima when they were at or very near the bottom of the table and have only drawn against Renofa when they were near the bottom of the table earlier this year.

Tochigi, much like FC Ryukyu, have some signature wins and performances against much stronger sides like Reysol, Kofu and Omiya. They have been unlucky at times and still haven’t won inside the J2 in about 2 months so they too are targeting this match for 3 points against a struggling FC Ryukyu side.

This will be a “slump busting” game for one of these two sides come the weekends end. FC Ryukyu are looking to respond by bouncing back from 2 prior losses in a row while Tochigi will want to break their 2 month winless streak and possibly keep pace with the bottom 4 teams if results go a certain way tomorrow. I hope FC Ryukyu take it to Tochigi SC early and grab a resounding win so as to slowly climb back up the table and out of danger, but you never know what to expect with this side so all we can do is get out there and support them.

“Checkered Record” Match Day 20 Preview: V.Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Ryukyu 6/29/2019

Match Day 20 Preview: (H) V.Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Ryukyu (A) at the transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki 6/29/2019, Kickoff at 1800.

Weather Forecast: Another wet and nasty match for FC Ryukyu as the rainy season here in Japan is relentless this year. Temperatures in the high 70s all match with rain and thunderstorms. Stay dry, if you can.

Intro

FC Ryukyu enter the match after suffering their heaviest loss to date in the J2. The 5-2 loss to Kofu at home also ended Ryukyu’s 30 game home unbeaten streak. Nagasaki on the hand are coming into the match having lost at home to Yamagata last weekend but are fresh of a 2-0 victory in the Levain cup this past Wednesday. This will be an interesting match-up as Ryukyu cold very well leave Nagasaki with a point since the hosts have lost 4 times at home this season and have also seen matches against Renofa and Kagoshima end in draws. Ryukyu are 8 points clear of the relegation zone and need a point as there will almost certainly be some shifting inside the table with so many of the lower 11 teams squaring off this weekend.

V.Varen Nagasaki

It almost seems as if Nagasaki prefers playing on the road compared to home this year as they have two more victories on the road than they do at home. They easily dispatched Chiba on the road with a resounding 4-1 win. They followed that up with a 3-2 loss to Okayama at home where Okayama jumped out to a 3 goal lead. Nagasaki had an early 2 goal lead against Zelvia but saw that lead evaporate after an own goal was followed up by another goal from Zelvia 6 minutes later. Against Yamagata they gave the visitors an early 2 goal advantage but were able to peg one back in the first half. Nagasaki dominated the possession and shots on the day but were unable to break down the Yamagata defense and suffered their 4^th home loss this season.

One could argue that Nagasaki are a typical mid-table team as they’ve beaten almost every side they should’ve and lost to all the stronger sides in J2. I do not see a signature win for Nagasaki this season, within the constructs of the J2 as I am not including the Levain Cup matches, but Nagasaki have lit up both Chiba and Gifu for 4 goals this year. They seem to suffer the same fate as many of the mid table teams where they can have momentary lapses in concentration that lead to opportunities and goals for their opponent.

I have little doubt that Nagasaki have targeted this match for 3 points and they have every right too. Ryukyu have not been great on the road this season and are coming off a performance where they conceded 5 times at home to Kofu. Nagasaki present a real challenge for Ryukyu this week because they play a 4-4-2 and Ryukyu struggle to break that formation down for opportunities and Nagasaki can also enjoy large spells of possession. This will mean Ryukyu will have only a few opportunities today, probably in the form of a second half surge for about 20-25 minutes.

Nagasaki Players to Watch

#33 FW Hiroto Goya. The man is simply on fire right now for Nagasaki. He has scored 11 goals this season but most impressive is that he has scored 8 goals in the past 7 consecutive matches. Ryukyu always seem to struggle against the more powerful strikers in J2 and today could be no different. Ryukyu must make life difficult for Goya or else he will make life very difficult for Ryukyu.

#16 FW Masakazu Yoshioka. Second leading scorer on Nagasaki with 6 goals. Plays down the left for Nagsaki.

#20 MF Yohei Otake. Plays down the right side for Nagasaki behind Goya and is the assist leader for V.Varen with 4 so far this year.

FC Ryukyu

FC Ryukyu started the Kofu match in great form. They dominated the possession and chances early and were rewarded with 2 goals. The first was a beautifully taken free kick by Kazama while the second by Ochi was a product of Kawai’s tenacity and speed. Ryukyu looked to be cruising at home until they surrendered a late first half goal which started Kofu’s run of 5 unanswered goals. While Kofu looked to be a team where the injuries had finally caught up with them, they simply waited for their time to hit back at Ryukyu. Kofu were attempting to break the Ryukyu defense down with long balls over the top that the attackers could run onto and when Ryukyu began committing more of the defenders forward in attack, Kofu found the space they needed to exploit the Ryukyu back line.

Ryukyu does not have the best away record. In 9 matches this season they have only 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses. If we broke the season down into quarters, we can see how Ryukyu earned a majority of their away points in the first quarter of the season with 5 and have only mustered 1 point in the second quarter while traveling. The statistics may not tell the whole story for Ryukyu as there were some injuries and suspensions to key players but nevertheless, Ryukyu needs to improve their road form in order to avoid a late season relegation scrap.

FC Ryukyu should see the return of Tanaka to the lineup today after his one game suspension and Ryukyu will most likely be without Tokumoto and Carvajal as they recover from ankle injuries. FC Ryukyu will need better passes and crosses from the 2 full backs of Fukui and Nishioka if they are to be successful today. Personally, I’d like to see Higuchi move Masutani out wide into a FB position and push Fukui back inside. Masutani is a better defender than Fukui but he is also a better attacker and if Ryukyu want to continue pushing FBs into the attack, then why not have someone who can deliver quality crosses and/or shots on net.

Player Injuries

V.Varen Nagasaki: #41 MF Yuki Omoto

FC Ryukyu: #5 DF Tokumoto & #1 GK Carvajal

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Apply pressure from all angles to Goya. He is far and away Nagasaki’s best player and one of the better finishers in the J2. The man is in top form right now as mentioned earlier with his recent run of goals. Ryukyu should not leave it to either Okazaki or Masutani to single handedly mark #33, but rather, should have multiple defenders pressing Goya from all sides to force him to expend more energy attempting to break free.

2. Do not over commit to the attack and leave our defenders exposed. Ryukyu were guilty of this during the Kofu match and they paid a heavy price for their mistake. If Goya is given large amounts of space to operate, he will punish Ryukyu with his strength, speed and finishing. Hopefully FC Ryukyu will adopt more of the same approach to the match that saw them earn draws against Yamagata and Verdy on the road.

3. Cut down on the turnovers and wayward passing. Ryukyu turned the ball over too many times against Kofu in addition to not providing accurate crosses/passes near Kofu’s 18-yard box. Ryukyu will need their full backs to deliver today and will certainly need better passing when in possession so as to avoid costly turnovers that can allow Nagasaki quick counters.

4. Execute the counter attack to perfection. Ryukyu will need to endure some serious spells of possession by Nagasaki throughout the match but when they do get their opportunity to strike back, Ryukyu need to break out quickly with speed. Kawai is turning into a valuable weapon that can cause all sorts of problem to opposing teams’ fullbacks. If Kawai can get behind the Nagasaki defense on a couple of occasions today it could free up some space for Suzuki. There is no guarantee that Kawai starts with the return of Tanaka today so we will have to wait and see.

Match Prediction

Nagasaki average 1.11 goals at home whereas Ryukyu concede an average of 1.55 goals as visitors. One could argue that the sides look even on paper when comparing Nagasaki’s home record and Ryukyu’s away record but Ryukyu have yet to win away from Okinawa in the past 8 matches. Nagasaki have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 4 at home with Ryukyu having won once, drawn 3 times and lost 5. Each has scored a total of 10 goals in those matches but Ryukyu have conceded slightly more often than Nagasaki.

Ryukyu hold a slight advantage when looking at each sides’ record against opponents in the top half of the table with Ryukyu scoring more goals against that level of competition compared to Nagasaki. This will also be Nagasaki’s 4^th match in 10 days and hopefully there are some tired legs on the Nagasaki squad that Ryukyu can exploit though most of the expected starters for Nagasaki were rested during their mid-week Levain Cup match. Hopefully this will be an enjoyable match to watch and I’d love to see Ryukyu score more than 2 goals.

Nagasaki 2-2 FC Ryukyu.

Conclusion

A point for Ryukyu would mean so much for a side that is struggling to keep opponents off the score sheet and earn wins on the road. Ryukyu will certainly have their chances today and they need to be clinical in front of goal. Good luck to the boys and those of you in attendance.