20 #FC琉球 #vvaren

Intro

FC Ryukyu have their first of fifteen mid-week matchups this Wednesday as they welcome in joint table toppers V-Varen Nagasaki. We are also lucky enough to have Daniel (@LakerByNature) from the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog (https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com /) provide this week’s Team preview for Nagasaki.

Weather Report
Match Day 4 Review: FC Ryukyu
Match Day 4 Review: V-Varen Nagasaki
Team Previews & Injury Report
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Predictions
J2 Fixtures
Conclusion

1. Weather Report

It is not a favorable weather report for this tilt. Looks to be very windy, very rainy and there is the danger of possible delays due to lightening. Bring a poncho, garbage bags for your stuff, and a change of clothes for your trip home as you will most likely be soaked once it is over.

2. Match Day 4 Review: FC Ryukyu

Ryukyu lost 3-1 at home to Tokushima Vortis. You can watch the highlights – or low lights depending on your perspective – below, or click the link for a deeper analysis with the Match Day 4 review I posted yesterday.

https://fcryukyublog.home.blog/2020/07/13/match-day-4-report-21-fc-ryukyu-vs-3-tokushima-vortis-7-11-20-fc%e7%90%89%e7%90%83/

3. Match Day 4 Review: V-Varen Nagasaki

Two late goals to earn a 2-0 win over Ehime FC for our guests this past weekend. Highlights below as well as a link to V-Varen Nagasaki Blog that has a very good Match Day 4 review.

https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/2020/07/11/match-report-v-varen-2-0-ehime-fc/

4. Team Reports & Injuries

V-Varen Nagasaki. Below is a Q&A I conducted with Daniel for this weeks team preview.

Q: Nagasaki are coming three straight wins to open the season over some pretty good opponents. What has changed at the club from last year to now?

D: Last year was mostly a rebuilding year for the team as so many key players, and the manager, Takuya Takagi now with Omiya, left the club and it was hard to replace that type of quality. Many supporters expected V-Varen to make it back to J2, and were flirting with the playoff spots for quite a while, but in the end, the quality was missing and the new manager, Makoto Teguramori, struggled as well. However, in the 2019 summer transfer window, the club made some good loan signings and those players either extended their loan spells or made their moves permanent at Nagasaki this year. Additionally, the club added several good defensive players during the winter and our defense looks much improved from last season. Also, Teguramori moved away from his conservative 4-4-2 and the team looks much more comfortable holding the ball and controlling the midfield this year.

Q: Who are the players to watch out for on Wednesday? Tell us a little about some of the signings that Nagasaki brought in as well as about some of the foreigners that feature in the squad.

D: There are many players to watch out for, but I have been most impressed with Hiroki Akino and Masaru Kato, who have dominated the central midfield the past few games. Akino joined last summer on loan from Shonan Bellmare then made a permanent move to Nagasaki this year, and is now the team captain while Kato arrived in the summer on loan from Albirex Niigata. Offensively, Luan was a huge signing for Nagasaki. He is a Brazilian midfielder/forward who was a starter for Atletico Mineiro for many years and won the Copa Libertadores in 2013. Ronaldinho was on that team, too. Then you have Victor Ibarbo who arrived last summer on loan from Sagan Tosu and I could not believe that he opted to stick around on a permanent deal this season. He has one goal and three assists in 78 minutes of playing time this season and should become a starter soon. The other two foreigners are CB Freire, who joined from Shonan Bellmare as well and midfielder Caio, who is on loan from Kawasaki Frontale. Both have been on the bench the last couple of games, but are more than capable of filling in for the starters.

Q: With the crammed fixture schedule soon to be upon us, do you feel that Nagasaki have the depth in their squad to continue piling up the results and make a serious push at promotion in 2020? And, how often has Makoto Teguramori rotated players these past few games?

D: I think V-Varen must have one of the deepest squads in J2 in terms of quality. Especially in midfield and in the attack. There are multiple players that the manager can use without sacrificing quality. His tactics have been quite interesting since the restart. He kept several top players on the bench and when he brought them on in the second half, they delivered decisive results for Nagasaki. I am referring specifically to Ibarbo, Togashi, Caio and Yoshioka. Also, players like Yohei Otake and Keiji Tamada, two of Nagasaki’s best players last season, have not made the matchday squad since the restart despite being fit. Teguramori also made use of the increased number of substitutions and has used all five subs against Giravanz and Ehime with four against Avispa Fukuoka. It will be interesting to see how he continues to utilize the squad in the coming weeks. He said that Ibarbo will start sooner or later as he is just too good, but V-Varen have been winning, so he is not in any hurry to change his approach.

Q: What is your take on the way the J-League handled re-opening the season as well as bringing fans back into the stands?

D: I think they have done pretty good and I was impressed by how well the supporters followed the rules. Obviously, it is not easy to; go to the stadium, have your temperature checked, maintain social distancing, wear a mask for the entire game, and remain silent, but those are the rules the J-League put in place. Everyone can decide whether they want to go to the games and follow the rules or watch from home. It is very important that the supporters at the stadium are careful and also considerate. I can’t help wondering how that would work here in Europe?

Q: Last one. What is your prediction for Wednesday’s match?

D: I think FC Ryukyu could be a dangerous team, but they seem to have a lot to figure out at this point, especially on defense. V-Varen, on the other hand, looked very comfortable defensively in the past few games and have many players who can create chances. So, my prediction is FC Ryukyu 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki. Good luck for the game!

You can also read Daniel’s preview of the match here: https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/2020/07/13/preview-j2-matchday-5-with-geoff-osborne/

V-Varen Nagasaki Injuries & Suspensions: None to any of the incumbent starters or reserves.

Lineups & Subs from Match Day 4 with subs

FC Ryukyu. Eight goals conceded with only two scored over the past 270 minutes for FC Ryukyu. For FC Ryukyu fans, this is an all too familiar site as we had to endure long spells of this last summer which ultimately led to FCR tumbling down the J2 table. For now, there is nowhere to go but up as we are only 1 point above Gunma in the standings.

So where do we begin? First, we need to keep Koizumi and Koya in the starting 11 as they’ve added a nice element to our much maligned attack. Second, we need a change in defense and this could be in the form of both Daisei Suzuki at CB and Felipe Tavares at RB. Or, we may also see a change with Chinen and/or Fukui replacing Yong Jick.

Third, start Shinji Ono in place of Koki and see if FC Ryukyu can start out on the front foot for a change by generating some larger early leads. Fourth, We cannot afford to play a high defensive line when pressing in the attack, or chasing deficits, as this creates too much space for other teams to operate. I am not sure if there is a way to conduct a balanced approach to the match, despite being behind, but when we press, the flood gates really open up.

While all of this could happen, with the crammed fixture schedule, it is likely we see more changes and more combinations than we normally would have. This will make “getting into a groove” a difficult prospect for Ryukyu but it is what it is at this point under these circumstances. In any event, change is needed in both personnel and tactics as whatever we have been doing up to this point, has simply not worked.

FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: LM Shuto Kawai is still recovering from an ankle injury and possibly set to return to training in the coming week(s).

5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Do not press Nagasaki, rather, use the counter attack to generate goals: Likelihood 3. Chances are Nagasaki will enjoy large amounts of possession tomorrow which may require sitting back and parking the bus by FCR. They should prepare to use the speed of Abe up top to break out of the defense and quickly transition into the attack.

2. Do not hold a high defensive line: Likelihood 2. Doubtful, because as soon as FCR fall behind, they throw everything, and everyone into the attack. If you recall from last week, it was Uesato who was sprinting back to cover the attacking forwards of Vortis and that didn’t end well.

6. Match Day 5 Prediction

I went with FC Ryukyu losing 3-0 while @LakerByNature said 2-0 to the hosts. Seems another loss is in store for the boys from Okinawa.

7. Match Day 5 in J2

The biggest draw this Wednesday is a surging Kitakyushu hosting Kyoto Sanga FC. A true statement game for Giravanz while Kyoto will want to keep pace with Omiya and Nagasaki who both have easier match ups this week, and with both expected to win.

8. Conclusion

This past weekend we witnessed the return of fans to J-League stadiums. It was great to see so many people attend the match under such different circumstances than just four months ago. However, it seems as if the guidelines put forth by the J-League, and the clubs, were rarely adhered.

I am sympathetic to the fact that remaining silent, stoic and controlling all outward signs of emotion are difficult in a venue that is set up to support said items, but we as fans run the risk of losing the ability to watch live games at the grounds if this behavior continues.

Social distancing, clapping, whistling and celebrating needs to be curtailed before it is too late. Part of the blame lies with the clubs and league for not enforcing these measures but we all need to play our part in this difficult time. Try your best out there this week to avoid these types of behavior while enjoying the game you love, so others may continue to enjoy it as well.

Once again I’d like to thank Dan for his contributions to this week’s entry and he can be found at both @LakerByNature and @V_Varen_EN on Twitter as well as at the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog on WordPress https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com. And don’t forget to check out the latest pod casts from the boys over at the J-Talk Pod and J-Talk Extra Time this week.

As far as FC Ryukyu are concerned, they need to go out there and find their identity and get back some swagger as we currently find ourselves in the “Same Ol’ Situation” we did at this point last season.

Stay safe and good luck!

“Hello Darkness My Old Friend” Match Day 4 Preview: (21) FC Ryukyu vs. (7) Tokushima Vortis 7/11/20 #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu return to Okinawa this week for a 2-game home stand beginning with Tokushima Vortis on Saturday. FC Ryukyu are looking to rebound from their embarrassing 4-0 defeat at Kitakyushu but face a very steep uphill battle to do so. The facts are that FC Ryukyu have one of the worst goal scoring, goal conceding, and overall goal differential records in the J2 at the moment. If they wish to get any points out of their next two matches, it will require an abundance of goals and we just haven’t seen that from this side to date.

Weather Forecast
Match Day 3 Highlights: Tokushima Vortis vs. Kyoto Sanga FC
Match Day 3 Highlights: Giravanz vs. FC Ryukyu
Tokushima Vortis Team Preview & Injury Report
FC Ryukyu Team Preview & Injury Report
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Match Prediction
Match Day 4 Around J2
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast

Hot and humid after some rain. Stay hydrated for all those in attendance on Saturday.

2. Match Day 3 Review: Tokushima Vortis

Came back from a 1-0 deficit to walk away with a point against pretty tough opponent. Would’ve lost if not for Kazaki Nakagawa missing the final shot right on the doorstep.

3. Match Day 3 Review: FC Ryukyu

As bad as it can get for FC Ryukyu.

4. Tokushima Vortis Team Preview

Vortis started out with a bang this year by scoring 3 goals against Tokyo Verdy and continued that momentum into the opening half the following game against Ehime FC with another three goals. Everything looked good up to this point as Tokushima were scoring a nice mix goals from open play, set pieces and scrappy second chance rebounds. But then the wheels came off.

Vortis surrendered 4 goals against Ehime in the second half on their way to a 4-3 loss and then were trailing Kyoto for much of their game until a Kawata goal in the 80^th minute leveled the score. They nearly lost that match as Nakagawa had about half the goal to work with when a ball fell to him on the final play of the game, but instead, he sent the shot high over the bar.

So, what does that tell us about Vortis? First, they are a team that can score from anywhere despite the minor drought that they have experienced starting in the second half of match day 2. Second, they are susceptible at conceding goals similar to FC Ryukyu. While it is true, they can score from set pieces – four so far this year – they also have conceded four goals from set pieces. Granted, two of them came after the incumbent goalie, Naoto Kamifukumoto, took a nasty knock to the head against Ehime from the post and was most likely concussed. Why he wasn’t removed at the point, as Vortis still had 4 subs left to use, is beyond comprehension.

The outcome of the game this week will largely come down to whether or not both teams can break out of their goal scoring funk.

Tokushima Vortis Injuries & Suspensions: None. But it will be interesting to see if Kamifukumoto returns to the lineup at GK after sitting out the match against Kyoto last week.

Starting 11 for each side from previous match.

5. FC Ryukyu Team Preview

One has to assume that After losing 4-0 on the road, FC Ryukyu will be forced into altering their lineup this week. The fact that we play V-Varen Nagasaki inside of 4 days after this match with Vortis, I expect there to be some changes due to such a tight turnaround.

While I do not expect there to be much change to the defense, I hope we see Tavares in at RB with Suzuki back in at CB as they provided a nice spark on the opening day. I would simply point out that the best performance FC Ryukyu had all season was at JEF despite the fact that we lost. That would also require replacing Yamaguchi with Ikeda at CM.

Considering that it is extremely hot and humid in Okinawa these days, and the players are just beginning to develop their in-season conditioning, we may actually see some crazy combinations in our mid-filed over the next two matches. I think it is prudent to experiment with different mid-field combinations to see which of them can produce the best results. However, this was never a tendency of Higuchi last year as he seemed to only make changes when injuries forced his hand. Hopefully the brutal fixture schedule will force his hand a little more this season.

The fact is, if FC Ryukyu wish to walk away with any of the points on Saturday, they are going to need to score goals. It’s been a rough start to the campaign so far and since we are still plagued by defensive issues, it is imperative that we start banging in the goals in order to cover up the cracks at the back.

FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: LMF Shuto Kawai. Ankle injury, possibly set to return in 2 weeks.

6. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Frustrate the Vortis Attack. Likelihood 2: Kazuki Nishiya is their leading goal scorer with 3 but has not registered one since his opening day hat trick versus Tokyo Verdy some four and half months ago. I said that Vortis are talented enough to score in many different ways so it is imperative we limit the amount of set pieces, clear all possible rebounds from danger, and cut down on the acres of space that seem to exist between our defenders.

2. Generate some offense. Likelihood 3: This especially includes set pieces as we have seen how vulnerable Vortis can be in defending corner kicks. The few chances we had last week, to go along with the limited possession, are not going to cut it against Tokushima and we need to get the offense going this game.

7. Match Day 4 Prediction

Tokushima Vortis are averaging a full 2 goals per game more than FC Ryukyu this season (2.33/0.33). With that in mind, a comfortable 2-0 score line in favor of Vortis seems the most likely outcome, though it could be quite a bit more if Higuchi makes no changes to the lineup from last week.

8. Match Day 4 around J2

The fourth round of fixtures starts this Friday night when (5) Okayama Fagiano face (15) Giravanz Kitakyushu. The remaining fixtures will all be played on Saturday and the three of note are: (8) Albirex Niigata facing (5) Matsumoto Yamaga FC; (8) Kyoto Sanga FC hosting (11) Avispa Fukuoka and finally, the top of the table tilt between (2) V-Varen Nagasaki and (3) Ehime FC.

9. Conclusion

It seems we’ve managed to pick up right were we left off in 2019 which means, Hello Darkness my Old Friend. FC Ryukyu are struggling for goals while conceding far too many to achieve any favorable results or build any momentum. It is still very early in the season with 39 matches yet to play, but we really need to turn things around.

As I mentioned earlier, I am not sure what to expect from Higuchi, but as far as I am concerned, changes need to be made to a lineup that just conceded 4 goals the prior week. Maybe the mid-week fixture after this one will prompt some sweeping changes, or maybe it won’t, as Higuchi rarely deviated from his lineup choices in the previous two mid-week matches we had last year.

In any event, fans will be allowed back into the stadiums starting this weekend and that is reason to celebrate. The J-League, and clubs for that matter, have done a fantastic job in trying to get the spectators back into the grounds during these very uncertain times.

It will be an interesting experience for some fans this weekend as there will be no cheering, no clapping, no singing, no musical instruments, and no celebrating allowed. It may resemble a dystopian atmosphere seen in many science-fiction films but ultimately it will allow so many people the ability to reconnect with the clubs that they love.

Good luck, and as always, stay safe.

“Now is the Time” Match Day 3 Preview: (20) Giravanz Kitakyushu vs. (17) FC Ryukyu 7/04/20 #FC琉球

Introduction

We are off and running in the J2 with FC Ryukyu earning their first point of the year last week against Avispa Fukuoka. This week’s opponent, Giravanz Kitakyushu, were recently promoted to J2 after winning the J3 in 2019. These two sides last met back in 2018 where FC Ryukyu did the double over Kitakyushu, who ended up finishing bottom that year, while FC Ryukyu went on to lift the J3 title. It is safe to say that these are not the same two sides who met back in 2018 with both looking to notch their first J2 victory of the 2020 campaign this weekend.

Weather Forecast
Match Day 2 Review: Giravanz Kitakyushu
Match Day 2 Review: FC Ryukyu
Team Previews & Injury Report
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
Match Prediction
Match Day 3 Around J2
J-League English Content
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast

It looks like it will rain all weekend with showers expected during the match. Going to be nasty out there in Kitakyushu this weekend.

2. Match Day 2 Review: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs. V-Varen Nagasaki

Giravanz lost to V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 in a very wet, very nasty, and very rainy affair on the road last week. I would encourage all of you to read the @V_Varen_EN review of the match as it provides a much better summary of the game.

https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/match-report-v-varen-21-giravanz/

3. Match Day 2 Review: FC Ryukyu vs. Avispa Fukuoka

FC Ryukyu and Avispa Fukuoka ground out a 1-1 draw in Okinawa this past Sunday. You can read my full match day review below or watch the highlights, your choice.

https://fcryukyublog.home.blog/2020/06/29/match-day-2-report-17-fc-ryukyu-vs-4-avispa-fukuoka-6-28-2020-fc%e7%90%89%e7%90%83/

If you yearn for even more info and more stats on games then check out the Football Lab. It is a Japanese language website but is easily translated through your internet browser, it is very impressive.

https://www.football-lab.jp/ryuk/report/

4. Team Previews & Injury Report

(20) Giravanz Kitakyushu 0W0D2L 1GF 3GA -2GD: Giravanz made five changes to their starting lineup from their previous opening day match against Fukuoka back in February. Kobayashi completely replaced the attack duo up front of Machino and Sato with Suzuki and Ikemoto. He also swapped Arakaki and Kokubu from the midfield for Tsubaki and Kawakami, with the latter having moved up from his role at CB the previous match to fill in at CDM.

Statistically, the changes did not make much difference as the shots and free kicks were the same across the two matches but Kitakyushu did end up scoring their first goal of the season. The “eyeball” test would tell you that Giravnanz created the same amount of chances against Nagaski as they did against Fukuoka, but they did not experience the same type of forward thrust they enjoyed against Fukuoka.

The highlights show four (4) chances this past week against Avispa but 3 of them, including the goal from an errant clearance, were mostly generated by Nagasaki turnovers. The goal scorer for Kitakyushu, Kokubu, came on to replace Ikoma at CB, and I assume that meant Kawakami dropped back to CB based on Kokubu’s location when he scored. I thought that Giravanz may have opted to switch to a back three in defense near halftime to add to the attack, but this was not the case.

Giravanz Kitakyushu Injuries/Suspensions: No starting members are listed on the injury report.

(17) FC Ryukyu 0W1D1L 1GF 2GA -1GD: Higuchi was forced into making one change last Sunday as starting LM, Shuto Kawai, was out with an ankle injury so in stepped Koya Kazama. FC Ryukyu are blessed with midfield talent this year so while there was a slight drop off in the overall amount of chances created and possession between their two games, it was not a steep drop. Though I must say, the drop off in speed down the left without Kawai was very noticeable.

Manager Higuchi also opted to start Fukui over Suzuki at CB; Torikai over Tavares at RB; and Kazuki Yamaguchi over Ren Ikeda in the #10 role. Ryukyu’s reserves included Shinji, Uehara, Tomidokoro, Tanaka, Suzuki and Koizumi though Shinji remained on the bench the whole game.

I feel as if FC Ryukyu have the stronger squad of the two this week which should result in far more opportunities compared to last week. Ryukyu bested their best two opponents in the shot and possession departments so FC Ryukyu should have no problem hitting the back of the net this week.

Of course, this will largely depend on Higuchi’s lineup selection and game plan. I hope we see Suzuki back in the starting CB role, leaving Fukui on the bench, with the same attacking 4 -Koya, Yamaguchi, Motegi and Abe- from last week, in order to control the tempo of the game. I would then expect Uehara and Tanaka to come on late in order to provide a bit of height and pace to overpower the Kitakyushu back four.

We also need to see more from FC Ryukyu on dead ball kicks as they have yet to score from those plays despite the multitude of opportunities to date. If the first cross from a corner can just clear the initial line of defenders than Yong Jick and Uehara, possibly Tavares if he is in there, could rise and meet them for headers. On that note, the most lethal player from corners last week was Numata who had two excellent headers that when he found some open space in the Fukuoka defense.

FC Ryukyu Injuries/Suspensions: No need to state the long-term injuries again until they are close to returning to the roster. MF Shuto Kawai is still another 3 weeks away from returning to the team because of an ankle injury.

5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Isolate/Mark MF Daigo Takahashi. Likelihood 2: Takahashi is by far Kitakyushu’s best player this season and is responsible for most of their goal scoring chances to date. I did not see anything from the Giravanz strike duo that would indicate FC Ryukyu struggling to blunt the Giravanz attack. So if Ryukyu can take their best player in Takahashi out of their opponent’s game plan, it should be a recipe for success.

2. Capitalize on set pieces. Likelihood 4: FC Ryukyu hit the wood work once from a CK and had another one wiped off the board due to a foul on the GK. Serantes also made a very nice save on a dangerous FK by Motegi. But we are not facing Serantes this week and we should utilize our height advantage with Uehara and Yong Jick this week compared to the past weeks.

6. Match Day 3 Prediction

This game may start out as a hard-fought battle between a couple of the teams expected to finish in the bottom third of J2 in 2020, but I think FC Ryukyu will take control of the game and go on to score multiple goals. I will say FC Ryukyu notch their first win with an impressive 3-0 result over Kitakyushu.

7. Match Day 3 in J2

(4) Avispa Fukuoka hosting (1) V-Varen Nagasaki in a Kyushu derby is the premier match up this week on Saturday evening followed closely by the (8) Tokushima Vortis vs. (9) Kyoto Sanga match that same night. We then close out the round on Sunday when (11) Jubilo Iwata hosts (4) Fagiano Okayama.

It will be interesting to see how both Tokushima and Jubilo respond to their losses and whether or not Kyoto and Okayama can assert themselves as promotion candidates. The rest of the weekend features some mid-table match-ups with 4 out of the 5 teams currently at the bottom of J2 squaring off against one another.

One final point on the upcoming round of fixtures. It was revealed by the J-League that none of the referees had been tested for COVID-19 prior to last weeks opening round in J2 & J3 and this is shocking. I feel that this is an injustice to the teams, staff and players that worked diligently to restart the season; and to the fans, and is nothing short of reckless behavior on behalf of the league. New cases of the virus are being reported daily in Japan and when you consider the leagues justification for foregoing the testing seems anecdotal. They claim that many of the refs have other jobs, which you and I know, could possibly put them at a greater risk than the most for coming into contact with COVID-19. This policy needs to change now as I highly doubt that the refs , like the teams, are all located geographically to the matches they’re overseeing, which puts many outside of football at risk when these guys travel.

8. J-League English Content

J-Talk Pod: Episode 322 – J1 is Back! https://jtalkpod.podbean.com/

J-Talk Extra Time Pod: WE ARE BACK!! https://jtalkpod.podbean.com/

V-Varen Nagasaki Blog: https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/2020/07/01/preview-j2-matchday-3-navybluewasp/

Albirex Niigata: https://orangeblue.blog.ss-blog.jp/

9. Conclusion

There is not much that separates these two teams on paper as both have yet to win a game and have nearly identical goal scoring records. This will be the first real test for FC Ryukyu against a lesser opponent which means it is our first opportunity to assess the strength of this team after facing two tough opponents in the past weeks (months).

Considering FC Ryukyu struggled mightily on the road last year, and it wasn’t until they began facing weaker competition near the end of the season – when the results really mattered – that they began stacking up the road wins. FC Ryukyu cannot afford a slow start on the road this season, especially against a newly promoted side, as they have a murderous fixture schedule through mid-August after Kitakyushu. A win would do much for their confidence before they host 2 of the top sides in J2 over the coming weeks.

Therefore, now is the time for FC Ryukyu to make a statement this weekend by traveling to Kitakyushu and coming away with all 3 points. And with that……………………………………………….

“Flying High Again” Match Day 2 Preview: (15) FC Ryukyu vs. (6) Avispa Fukuoka 6/28/20 #FC琉球

Introduction

It is good to be back right! Over 4 months of inactivity and now we are a mere 24 hours away from kicking off the 2020 season (again). The second round of J2 pits promotion candidates, Avispa Fukuoka, against our beloved FC Ryukyu. My how the winds of change have favored Avispa since the 2019 season ended compared to that of FC Ryukyu. A new manager and new signings have reinvigorated a Fukuoka side that was adrift for much of 2019 while FC Ryukyu still have plenty of questions to answer heading (back) into 2020. Also, this is the first co-authored preview of 2020 as @NavyBlueWasp has written the Avispa Fukuoka team preview for this week’s match-up.

1. Weather Forecast

The irony of there being a decent weather forecast for Sunday is that there will be no fans there to enjoy it. I think we had rain at the Tapista, or at least it was forecast to rain, in 15 of the 21 home games last year. To make matters worse, there was one match with a 0% chance of rain but it rained for about 10 minutes prior to kickoff.

2. Match Day 1 Recap: Giravanz Kitakyushu (0) vs (1) Avispa Fukuoka 2/23/2020

Giravanz came out firing and nearly scored on two early opportunities. Unfortunately for Kitakyushu, the two shots that hit the side netting and post, would be their best chances to score all day.

Fukuoka took control of this game around the 25’ mark and never looked back. To be honest, the score line could have been higher had Fukumitsu scored on a breakaway if not for a nice save by the Giravanz keeper. Nevertheless, Avispa grabbed their first win of the season.

3. Match Day 1 Recap: JEF UTD Chiba (1) vs (0) FC Ryukyu 2/23/2020

FC Ryukyu surrendered the first, and only, goal of this match within 40 seconds of the opening whistle. Then FC Ryukyu proceeded to out possess (%65 to %35) and out-shoot (19/5) JEF for the remainder of the game. Unfortunately, none of that mattered as FC Ryukyu failed to score resulting in their first loss of 2020.

4. Team Previews

We are lucky enough to have @NavyBlueWasp provide the team preview this week for Avispa Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka: “I think Manager Shigetoshi Hasebe has been our biggest signing this season. What he achieved with Mito Hollyhock last season (7th place, just missed the playoffs by a few goals) was quite remarkable. He brought his favorite player with him, Hiroyuki Mae, and straight away named him captain of the team. Mae was one of the leading players at Mito last season and is adept at directing the game plan of Hasebe.”

“Up front, we signed Juanma Delgado and Daiya Tono to bolster the attack that only scored 39 goals last season. Juanma scored 13 goals for Omiya last season and uses his physical advantage over the thinly framed defenders of J2 quite well. Naturally, you could feed Delgado with crosses, but he’s also quite skilled with his feet. Daiya Tono was recently signed from Honda FC by Kawasaki Frontale and then loaned to us prior to the start of the season. I see him as a big talent, and big improvement for us up front, as he scored nine goals to go along with seven assists in the JFL as one of the key players in Honda’s great Emperor’s Cup campaign. He also added four goals in that competition. Tono has already showed off his talents in this year’s season-opener against Kitakyushu where he scored the winner with many considering him the “Man of the Match” due to his high working-rate and persistence.”

“Beside the aforementioned Mae, we also signed Takuya Shigeyoshi from Kyoto Sanga FC. He formed a nice partnership with Mae in our central MF in the first game and I expect that duo to be our starting CMF for most of the season. Shigeyoshi is the more attacking player of the two, and he too has a high work-rate. He often can be found in both boxes of the field during any given match. In the attacking midfield, we’ve signed Daisuke Kikuchi on loan from Kashiwa Reysol and Takaki Fukumitsu, on loan from Cerezo Osaka, also formerly of Mito where he played under Hasebe. I rate Kikuchi highly and the J2 could be the right stage for him to shine again. Fukumitsu made a successful debut in the first league game and provides another attacking element up front.”

“A signing, which I was highly doubtful about, was the loaning of Emil Salomonsson from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. I was worried he would be to slow on the right wing, but he proved me wrong and made an impressive debut versus Kitakyushu. What he lacks in skills, he compensates with a high working-rate and a very unselfish team first mentality. While not a signing, it is important to note that starting goalkeeper, Jon Ander Serantes, opted to stay instead of leaving for the J1 or Europe (again). As you know, Serantes had some super performances last year and I was very worried that he would depart after our horrible season. And recently he turned down an offer from La Liga-side Atletico Bilbao.”

“I think these players are major signings that could see Avispa Fukuoka fight for promotion to the J1. The corona-crisis has complicated things a bit with such a long break in the schedule and then the cramming in of the remaining fixtures. But if everything works out right, and with a bit of luck, I think we can finish inside the top 2 in 2020 for one of the two automatic promotion-spots.”

“In closing, I mentioned our win against Kitakyushu as being quite entertaining and the team really showed what they can do any given week. Sure, not everything worked 100% of the time as this was the first time that eight of the eleven players in the starting lineup were playing together. Some could say it was just Kitakyushu, but the work-rates of Tono and Salomonsson, plus the way Mae organized the attack, provides a lot of optimism moving forward for Avispa.”

Avispa Fukuoka Injuries/Suspensions: Avispa has only 1 injury to contend with and that is to CB Carlos Gutierrez who picked up a crucial ligament injury in his knee prior to the opening fixture. He is likely out for the remainder of the campaign.

FC Ryukyu: While Avispa are dealing with 8 out of 11 new starters, FC Ryukyu are right there with them with 7 out of 11 new starters of their own. FC Ryukyu has a completely new back 4 and has replaced 3 out of the 4-attacking front men.

FC Ryukyu failed to fire in their opening round but came close on several occasions. What is worrisome is that none of those chances came from our lone striker in Highuchi’s 4-2-3-1 formation. In fact, more chances were created by our newly signed RB Tavares than Abe up front. Since relegation is of no issue for 2020, maybe this won’t matter. But we cannot rely on our midfielders to do all the heavy lifting moving forward.

We will see the return of several injured players and possibly this reinvigorates this squad but that is anyone’s guess. I for one will be eagerly awaiting the return to action to better size up the squad for 2020 and see what the new signings offer. Regardless, I think the roster is too thin to sustain the upcoming campaign (injuries and suspensions) and we will need loan reinforcements to fill out starting lineups each week as well as provide a break to the incumbent starters (Maybe a blessing in disguise as we can see what we have in our younger talent this year compared to seasons past, as they will be pressed into service). If you recall last year, we went long spells without Dany, Yu, Keita, Uehara, Torikai, Nishioka, Shinji, Tokumoto, Masutani and Ochi. We never even knew what was wrong with some of them and we saw how Highuchi favored a core group of players. We may not have that luxury this year and there is nothing wrong with a little experimentation in the lineup.

I hope that we see Koya take up the starting LM role with the injury to Shuto Kawai, but it is highly likely we see all 5 substitutes feature on Sunday. Some for player maintenance and some for tactical purposes. As I stated many times since the break began, we have a razor thin roster that cannot afford multiple simultaneous injuries, suspensions or time away for COVID-19.

FC Ryukyu Injuries/Suspensions: FC Ryukyu should see the return of all the players who were injured prior to their first match: GK Dany Carvajal, CB Ryohei Okazaki, LM Yu Tomidokoro and MF Kazuki Yamaguchi. FC Ryukyu will be without the services of 3^rd choice GK Kosuke Inose, who is expected back in August from shoulder surgery, and FWD Takuya Hitomi who is out until Mid-November after suffering an injury to his knee. The most devastating injury that FC Ryukyu most contend with is that of starting LM, Shuto Kawai, who will be sidelined for 4 weeks due to an ankle ligament injury he picked up in practice last week.

Avispa Fukuoka Team Profile Page on Transfermarkt: https://www.transfermarkt.com/avispa-fukuoka/startseite/verein/9597

FC Ryukyu Team Profile Page on Transfermarkt: https://www.transfermarkt.com/fc-ryukyu/startseite/verein/23569

5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory for Match Day 2

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Match the physicality of Fukuoka. Likelihood 4. I think FC Ryukyu matches up well against the physical front-line of Fukuoka. We saw Delgado bully some of our defenders last season when he was with Omiya and I think the pairing of Suzuki and Yong Jick at the back are better suited to handle those duties this year. I also think that FC Ryukyu could have the advantage on set pieces, especially corner kicks, with their height advantage over Avispa.

2. Make quick passes across the pitch to stretch the back 4 of Fukuoka and open some shooting lanes for our LM & RM. Likelihood 3. They key to beating the 4-4-2, right? Need to make those long, cross pitch, passes into the open channels where one of our players is left unmarked. I did not see FC Ryukyu do this that much last year and I worry that our attack will narrow with the absence of Kawai’s speed down the left side.

6. Match Day Prediction

@OkinawaOzzy: This certainly isn’t the same Avispa squad from last year and I fear that we may see the true power of this Fukuoka side on Sunday evening. 2-1 in favor of our guests.

@NavyBlueWasp: I hate predictions, but I’ll go with 1-1. I don’t trust your boys lol!

7. Match Day 2 Fixtures of Note around J2

JEF UTD Chiba hosting Omiya in a battle of two possible promotion teams for 2020 gets the new campaign started right. Behind them is the reinforced Fagiano Okayama vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Saturday that also looks pretty tasty.

Maybe the biggest match of the re-opening weekend, as mentioned by @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites on the J-Talk Extra Time pod this week, will be Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata on Sunday. This match will officially open the new Sanga Stadium for J2 with two of the top promotion favorites for 2020 locking horns.

8. Around the J-League Blogs, Twitter Accounts and Pod Casts

J-Talk Pod: Episode 321 J.League Ultimate XIs Draft http://jtalkpod.podbean.com/

J-Talk Extra Time Pod: Back with a (silent) Bang! https://jtalkpod.podbean.com/

@V_Varen_EN: (V-Varen Nagasaki Preview) https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/

@OrangeBlue882(Albirex Niigata)https://orangeblue.blog.ss-blog.jp/

@tsc_intl (Tochigi SC) https://tochigisc-intl.blogspot.com/

@Verdy_eng (Tokyo Verdy) https://verdyunofficialenglish.wordpress.com/

@J_League_En: The J-League will broadcast two games this weekend for those located internationally (not located in Japan) JUN 27 Tokyo Verdy v Machida Zelvia 1800 JST & JUN 28 Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata 1800 JST. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmQp6ZaAejJKKkXc_Y_lh1A

9. Conclusion

FC Ryukyu once again host Avispa Fukuoka for their first home game of the season. Last year FC Ryukyu defeated Avispa twice, 3-1 & 1-0. But I do not think we will catch them sleeping on us like they may have in opening fixture last year, nor do I think we are facing the same opponent that provided FC Ryukyu their first road win in over 7 months late last season.

The one advantage that both sides share is that this is their first competitive match in over 100 days and they both recently came back to training. All the miscommunication leading to missed passes and misfires on net are sure to pop up this weekend. This is such a strange restart to a season that already completed an off-season, pre-season, and opening fixture so anything could happen on Sunday.

In any event, time to get it going again and with that, Ozzy Osbourne will close this preview.

Come on FC RYUKYU!!!!!!

“Here We Go!” Match Day 1 Preview: JEF UTD Chiba vs FC Ryukyu 2/23/2020

Intro

My oh my, the time has flown by this offseason. Nevertheless, here we are at the first Match Day Preview for FC Ryukyu in the 2020 season. Last year I found that Match Day Previews became much richer and more deeply involved as the season evolved over time. Of course, this is to be expected when story lines start to unfold, players get injured, teams experience a dip or rise in form and statistics allow us to conduct some level of critical analysis. But at the start of each season, teams are relatively unknown commodities and often playing together for the first time. Surely last season stands as a perfect example when FC Ryukyu got out on the front foot quickly with such a blazing start and took everyone by surprise.

The same notion holds true for 2020 as teams will spend the better part of a month learning to gel when game speeds increase and matches begin to count. By starting fast early last year, FC Ryukyu scored a major advantage over teams that struggled out of the gate. I am not sure we will catch many by surprise this year, and in fact, I think FC Ryukyu have a very tough opening 11 matches to begin the year. This could cause some early tense moments this spring as well as stressful ones come this fall.

With that in mind, we open the Match Day Previews for this season with a road trip to Chiba where FC Ryukyu will take on JEF United Chiba on the opening day of 2020. If you recall last year, JEF got the better of FC Ryukyu on two separate occasions. A 1-0 win in Chiba on the first Wednesday night game of the year back on April 3^rd followed up by a 2-0 win in Okinawa at the end of July. The loss in July was number 4 in the midst of a 5-game losing streak for FC Ryukyu which really piled the pressure on the squad and the manager Higuchi. FC Ryukyu were in complete freefall at that time and were tumbling down the J2 table with each consecutive loss. But despite suffering setbacks to JEF along the way, FC Ryukyu would go on to finish higher than JEF in the J2 table in 2019.

But a lot has changed since these sides last met nearly 7 months ago. Players have changed teams, JEF has changed their manager and there are different expectations for both clubs heading into 2020.

Weather Forecast

JEF Chiba United

JEF made some wholesale changes to a side that finished 17^th in the table on 43 points in 2019. Often the punch line of several jokes stemming from numerous howlers and blunders, JEF has addressed the GK position this offseason by signing a veteran player from J1. Shoto Arai (Kawasaki Frontale) will look to sure up the final line of defense for JEF that only mustered 11 clean sheets from 42 matches in 2020. It is not as if clean sheets tell the whole story as there were probably a couple of occasions where a goal was conceded that either leveled or titled matches for JEF last season after they had already conceded.

Kleber will lead the JEF line up front as he did for much of last season. Kleber will be partnered with either newly signed Keita Yamashita (Renofa Yamaguchi) or Takayuki Funayama. Kleber banged in 17 goals in his 38 starts last season with Yamashita and Funayama each chipping 11/12 respectfully. Keita is 9 years younger than Funayama and perhaps the new coach favors a more aggressive style of play, with more gut busting runs compared to last season, and that may favor the younger Keita. JEF also signed Alan Pinheiro from Tokyo Verdy, a 17-goal scorer from just 2 seasons ago, to add to their firepower up front.

I cannot speak volumes on the defenders that JEF signed this offseason but it seems a majority of the issues that plagued this side in 2019 may very well continue into 2020. All in all, this looks like a club that wants to execute a very aggressive attacking style of play and run the opponent into the ground. But can they can keep opponents off the score sheet?

FC Ryukyu

Last year’s opening day starters for FC Ryukyu included Koji Suzuki, Kazaki Nakagawa, Keita Tanaka, Yu Tomidokoro, Kazumasa Uesato, Koki Kazama, Taishi Nishioka, Ryohei Okazaki, Shuhei Tokumoto Kosuke, Masutani and Dany Carvajal. From that group, only 6 remain, and of those 5, only 2 are likely start the opening match of 2020. This is nothing new to the fans of Ryukyu as many of us have seen some violent roster churn every season for this club. The question now becomes, can FC Ryukyu survive or thrive with this new group of players?

Up top will be Takuma Abe or Shinya Uehara for FC Ryukyu. Either will be flanked by Keita Tanaka, Koya Kazama, Shuto Kawai or Shunsuke Motegi with recent college graduate, Ren Ikeda, possibly leading the charge from the #10 slot. The youngster believes he is in the poll position to start the year there and that would come as a big surprise considering he beat out the likes of Koya and others to take over the CAM role. But whatever, name brand recognition is nice, results are so much better. So, if he can indeed prove his mettle out there, then I am all for it.

FC Ryukyu has made whole sale changes to back line that conceded a J2 league leading 81 goals last season. Tokumoto, Masutani, Nishioka have departed and Ryohei Okazaki is out injured. In comes newly signed North Korean National Team Player, Lee Yong Jick, and on-loan defender from Tokushima Vortis, Daisei Suzuki. At full back there is Felipe Taveras (RB), signed from a Brazilian Club this offseason, as well as (LB) Keito Numata who transferred in from Zweigen Kanazawa to replace Tokumoto. If Tavares can produce, or Torikai can get healthy and return to his top form, defense could all of a sudden become be a hidden strength for this team. There is an off chance that Ryoji Fukui starts in place of Suzuki, as he was Highuchi’s preferred choice all last season when there was an injury anywhere cross the back 4, but Suzuki seems to have the demeanor you want in a CB and I hope he is in there come Sunday.

Finally, we come onto the goal keeping crew. With Dany out rehabbing from offseason surgery, FCR are left with some unproven options on the roster. Inose started one match for FC Ryukyu last year at Mito and Tsumita has never featured for the club at this level. Then there is Junto Taguchi who signed from Albirex Niigata but I believe hasn’t featured in a competitive match in well over year. The closest I could find was a loan spell at Fujieda MYFC. For a side that only kept 7 clean sheets in all of 2019 (all 7 from Dany) there are many questions and concerns heading into the season opener.

Player Injuries

JEF UTD Chiba: MF Tameda (Cannot locate the injury) Return 8-10 weeks.

FC Ryukyu: GK Carvajal: (Ankle) Expected Return-4weeks. DF Okazaki: (Foot Fracture) Expected Return-3 weeks. MF Tomidokoro (Ankle/Foot) Expected Return-4 weeks. MF Yamaguchi: (Calf/Hamstring Pull/Tear) Expected Return-6 weeks.

Keys to Victory

Going to add a twist for 2020 to this section and provide a level of confidence after each key to victory indicating the likelihood that I think it will happen. The scale below:

5. An almost certainty: 4 Fairly Certain: 3 Somewhat Certain: 2 Very Unlikely: 1 Miracle

1. Stifle the JEF attack and do not expose the FCR goal keeper. I think FC Ryukyu may have the advantage on defense (words I would have never uttered in 2019) so this is a real possibility and necessity on Sunday. I cannot speak to how Higuchi split the preseason reps between Taguchi, Inose and Tsumita but the last thing FCR needs to do is turn this game into a shooting gallery back there for our goalie. Likelihood: 2

2. Exploit the JEF back line. The JEF defensive unit, much like the FCR back line, is newly formed and learning to play together for the first time. This is probably the weakest link in the JEF side which should allow FCR to get some shots on net which leads to point #3. Likelihood: 4

3. Capitalize on whatever opportunities are afforded by the JEF defense. JEF’s goalkeeper is a step up from last year and a proven shot stopper so weak, ill-advised and off-target shots will not help FCRs chances of victory. Especially if we only have 2-3 quality scoring chances that day. Abe seems dialed in from the amount of pre-season goals he scored so hopefully he can bag a brace on the weekend and give FCR the win. Likelihood: 3

Match Prediction

JEF is stronger on the ends of the pitch at GK and FWD with FCR having the advantage through the middle (MF/DEF). JEF has 3 proven double-digit goal scorers from last year whereas FCR have none. FCR also lack the experience in goal compared to that of JEF. However, FCR are slightly stronger across the back line and loaded with talent through the MF.

Each side is orientated to the attack and therefore this game will boil down to who has the most cracks at the back. Unlike last year when FCR failed to fire in any of their matches against JEF, I think this year will be different. However, I also feel that JEF will capitalize on their opportunities more than FCR and therefore will edge out FCR on the opening day.

Match Day Prediction: JEF UTD Chiba 2-1 FC Ryukyu.

Match Day Information

Please see Lost in Football’s website for information on how to purchase tickets and get the match at JEF UTC Chiba. http://lostinfootballjapan.com/club-profiles/jef-united-chiba/

JEF: https://jefunited.co.jp/event/2020/0223/. Can translate into English if using Google Chrome.

FC Ryukyu: http://fcryukyu.com/news/23000. List of goods on sale at JEF’s stadium.

J Soccer Magazine also has a ton of information on these clubs as well as all the J League sides. http://www.jsoccer.com/new/j2

Check out the latest J2 podcast, J-Talk Extra Time Ep.121, on iTunes Podcasts as well as Podbean where Stuart and Jon cover the opening round of fixtures for J2 this weekend. @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites

Conclusion

It is truly anyone’s guess how the opening day fixture will play out as we’ve never seen these sides face each other with this current crop of players. Will the occasion be too much for Taguchi in net for FCR? Does FCR have the firepower to get into shootouts this season? Can the back line for FCR morph from a position of weakness in 2019 to one of strength in 2020? All good questions that will be answered in short order. But for now, let’s enjoy the opening fixture of the 2020 season as we’ve all waited long enough for it to finally come around.

2019 J1/J2 Playoff Final Preview: (J1) Shonan Bellmare vs (J2) Tokushima Vortis 12/14/2019

Intro

Well, here we are at the end. The J1/J2 playoff final between Shonan Bellmare and Tokushima Vortis is set for this Saturday. One of these sides will be playing J1 football in 2020 with the other playing in the J2. Tokushima’s path to the final included a 4^th place finish in the J2, followed by a 1-1 draw with Ventforet Kofu in the opening round of these playoffs and 1-0 win over Montedio Yamagata in the second round. Shonan’s path was a lot less glamorous. Shonan had a chance this past Sunday to pull themselves out of the relegation battle at the expense of Sagan Tosu but a late goal by already relegated Matsumoto sealed their fate last weekend. There were no playoff games for Shonan to reach this point, instead, it was their overall record that put them in this spot. But before we get to who will win and how they’ll attempt to accomplish the task at hand, let’s look at each side and see if there’s more to their story than the statistics indicate.

Shonan Bellmare

Shonan Bellmare hail from Kanagawa. Shonan won a total of 12 games this season out of a possible 42. Right away we can see that this was not a side that lit up the score sheet each week and suffered both heavy and embarrassing defeats throughout the year. The first one that comes to mind was the 4-0 drubbing by the JFL side Veertien Mie, in this years Emperor’s Cup. Granted, Shonan may not have played their top lineup, but to suffer a 4-0 loss to a non-league side at home doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in the fans or the club. Shonan then suffered a 3 game losing streak at home that included score lines of 6-0, 5-0 and 3-0. They were able to break out of that funk, at probably the most opportune time, with a 1-0 win on their last home match to at least give them a fighting chance on the last day to avoid the situation they currently find themselves in right now.

As a whole, Shonan were outscored 47 to 80 across all competitions this year. Though the 40 goals they scored in the J1 were by no means the lowest as Shonan outscored 7 other J1 sides this year that included sides Cerezo Osaka, Oita Trinita and Vegalta Sendai that finished much higher up the table than Shonan. The problem for Shonan was they surrendered the second most goals of any J1 side in 2019. For all the FC Ryukyu fans out there, you can understand exactly what I am talking about and see how dangerous conceding that many goals can be for any side that must deal with relegation on a regular basis.

Another worrying trend for this side was that they only had one player who reached double digit points this season. I did not review each player in depth to see if they suffered some sort of injury throughout the season nor did I review every Levain Cup score sheet to see if the goals score din those games were not included in the players tally on the J.League website. In any event, it indicates that this side may not have the ability to press for a goal if they find themselves in any sort of deficit tomorrow.

Tokuhsima Vortis

Those of you that regularly follow the J2 know about Vortis and what they accomplished this year as well as what type of outfit Ricardo Rodriguez assembled for a push to the J1. Vortis sputtered out of the gate to begin the season, that included a loss to FC Ryukyu on match day 4, but they rebounded nicely to earn a positive point in 30 of their remaining 38 matches of 2019. This included an unbeaten run of 12 matches followed by a draw and win against the aforementioned Kofu and Montedio to open the J1/J2 playoffs. But this game will not be played in Tokushima, Vortis will be the visitor for the first time in these playoffs and it is prudent we peer into their away record to see if there are any cracks in this formidable side.

Vortis went 9W5D7L on the road this season tallying 31 goals while conceding 26 for a goal difference of +5. But no so fast, one of those games was a 7-0 pasting of relegated side, FC Gifu, on match day 39. Grated, we cannot discount that game but their goals scored to conceded average for road games drops considerably if we treat that match as an outlier. If we removed the FC Gifu game, then Vortis’s averages are much closer together at 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 surrendered compared to the lofty 1.48 average road goals scored with FC Gifu’s game. This could be a small crack that would otherwise be overlooked due to the recent form this Vortis side has experienced and one that must be slightly concerning heading into the final match of the season.

Recent form and the overall eye test cannot also not be discounted either as we should never rely solely on what some of the statistics indicate. Tokushima won 5 of their final 7 road games while drawing twice to remain unbeaten when closing out the 2019 campaign. But those wins were against Avispa Fukuoka, Ehime FC, JEF United Chiba, Tochigi SC, Omiya Ardija, FC Gifu and Tokyo Verdy. Not many “signature wins” are included in that group outside of Omiya but it’s not Tokuhsima’s fault for how their schedule was constructed; they could only play the teams that were put in front of them. For their part, Tokushima did beat promoted side, Yokohama FC and playoff side Ventforet Kofu on the road this year. I am purposely excluding any big wins at home against strong sides as Vortis are forced to travel this week and teams can perform at a noticeably different level when traveling. What I will point out though is, while momentum is not something we can or cannot actually measure, it most likely exists and Tokushima have serious amounts of positive momentum carrying them into the final compared to their opponent who stumbled at the very end.

Player Injuries

Shonan Bellmare: MF Ko Sawada has been out since July with a torn ACL.

Tokushima Vortis: FW Takeru Kishimoto has been out with a fractured ankle since mid-November.

Match Prediction

A tough game to predict as I have not spent a ton of time watching Shonan Bellmare throughout the 2019 campaign. I did see them face off against the J1 champions, Yokohama F Marinos earlier this year in a Levain Cup game but I was mainly there to see former FC Ryukyu players Park Il Gyu and Nakagawa, none of which featured that day by the way (terrible weather as well!). I will say that Shonan gave the champs fits throughout the match but I am not sure who was the main men for either side that game and Yokohama ultimately prevailed 1-0. What I will say is the Shonan fans traveled really well that day and I expected them to be in full voice at home tomorrow.

For all their warts, Shonan put forth some serious efforts to close out their season with draw at J1 runners-up, FC Tokyo, that could have ended in a Shonan victory if it weren’t for an extra time goal by FC Tokyo. Shonan also earned a victory at home against 6^th placed Hiroshima before their collapse at Matsumoto.

Tokushima have done the job these past 2 weeks against 2 top six sides in the J2 this year. They were never forced to chase their opponent in either game as they were the home side and simply needed a draw to advance. The shoe is on the other foot now as they say and we will need to see Tokushima come out and grab that all important first goal. The number they really need to hit is 2, a number they hit 7 times this year on the road that includes their last 3 road matches. The Vortis back line will need to frustrate the Shonan attacking players with Shonan attempting to do the same while trying to hit Vortis on the counter.

Shonan has the ability, as well as the players, to sit back, defend and then hit Vortis on the counter. I would be especially wary of #10 from Shonan, Naoki Yamada, as he has an absolute cannon of a left leg and his ability to quickly turn and put power behind a shot could prove vital tomorrow. As pointed out by the boys on the J-Talk podcast this week, Vortis need to dictate the pace and play of this game as Shonan will simply try and slow things down and get out of there with a draw.

Alright, enough small talk. Are Vortis a team of destiny or are Shonan destined to stay in the J1 for 2020 despite their poor performance all season? Tokushima have played 4 more games than Shonan this year but Shonan have also lost to non-league side Veertien and J2 side V-Varen Nagasaki this season. I have picked against Vortis once and was very wrong while rightly siding with them last week. Therefore, I see the J2 playoff winners securing the much-needed victory to propel them into the J1 while simultaneously sinking Shonan into J2 hell. The strike partnership of Nomura and Kawata from Vortis coupled with Jordy Buijs being the tone setter for this team will be too much for Shonan on Sunday. Goals from both Kawata and a Buijs FK bring home the win for the visitors.

Tokushima Vortis 2-1 Shonan Bellmare

Conclusion

There isn’t much more I can say so why bother. Enjoy and see you next week with the match report.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 2 Match Preview: #4 Tokushima Vortis vs #6 Montedio Yamagata 12/8/2019

Intro

The second round of the J1/J2 playoffs will pit #4 seed, Tokushima Vortis, against #6 Montedio Yamagata. Vortis are here because they drew 1 all with Kofu at home last week, whereas Yamagata went into Omiya and dug out a 2-0 road victory. The winner of this match will move on to face the 16^th placed team from J1 next Sunday. But for now, that is also in question and we’ll need to wait and see how the J1 fixtures play out this weekend before we can know either of these sides opponents in the final match.

Tokushima Vortis Home Record Compared to Montedio Yamagata Away Record

As previously mentioned in an earlier blog entry, Vortis have only lost 5 times across 23 home games all season and until the draw this past weekend, they had won 4 out of their last 5 home games while maintaining a 3:1 goal scored to conceded ratio. Another impressive stat from the Vortis home record is that they’ve only conceded multiple goals at home on 5 occasions this year. This really puts a lot of pressure on Montedio to score, and not concede, as we just witnessed with Kofu this past Sunday. That is no easy task as it is not easy to score more than 1 goal on Tokushima.

Much like Tokushima’s previous opponent, Kofu, Montedio are no slouches on the road and it will take another solid performance by Vortis to move into the final stage of the competition. Last week I stated that Montedio began the road schedule this season in very strong form only to see it wobble in the second half. I also mentioned that they accumulated some large statistics against weaker sides while losing to some of the stronger sides in the table to close out 2019’s road schedule. None of that mattered last week as they easily brushed aside the #3 seed, Omiya Ardija, en-route to a 2-0 victory. It seems the good road form that Montedio experienced earlier this season may be returning which makes for an interesting matchup against a Tokushima side who fancies scoring goals. I am eagerly looking forward to the Jordy Buijs versus Jefferson Baiano matchup in this one and so should you.

Previous Meetings between Tokushima and Yamagata

Match Day 14 May 9^th 2019 Tokushima Vortis 1-1 Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata was defending rather poorly and a cheap give away almost led to a very early goal for Vortis. Vortis did crack the Montedio back line in the 9^th minute when a deflected shot from Yuta Uchida was redirected into the Montedio net. Near the end of the first half, Tokushima Forward Kiyotake, was sent off for a rash challenge thus putting Vortis down to 10 men the remainder of the game. Montedio struggled to generate anything offensively this game and were lucky to be awarded a PK that Jefferson Baiano converted to level the match.

Match Day 24 July 27^th 2019 Montedio Yamagata 3-1 Tokushima Vortis: Vortis were awarded a PK in the 19^th minute that Iwao converted for the early Vortis 1-0 lead. Then, shockingly, Kiyotake was sent off in the first half for the second straight game against Montedio. This time it was his time wasting that upset the referee leading to his second yellow of the half. The sending off once again sparked Yamagata’s offense to level, and then take the lead over Tokushima.

Leading Scorers for Each Side

Player Injuries

Tokushima Vortis: No change from last week. Kishimoto is still sidelined with a fractured ankle that will keep him out the remainder of the season.

Montedio Yamagata: Same as last week as well, none listed.

Match Prediction

Let’s start with a summary of the quotes from the end of the Vortis/Kofu match by Jordy Buijs. First, Tokushima have a huge home field advantage with their supporters and this is probably no easy trek for the Yamagata faithful on Sunday. Two, Vortis already have the advantage of only requiring a draw to advance to the next round as outlined in the playoff rules making life tough for any road opponent. Finally, it is extremely hard to score more than one goal against Tokushima.

Tokushima’s performance against Kofu was not as inspiring as that of their opponent against Omiya last week. Vortis were struggling to break down Kofu’s defense despite Kofu not having an overly strong back line. Vortis had their only real chance stopped by Kofu before Jordy broke the deadlock. However, Kofu and Utaka responded quickly to level the match and make it “game on” again. I think if Kofu had not Allano sent off they could be hosting Montedio this week but that is not the case. And Tokushima never scored to walk away with a win despite the man advantage.

For their part, Montedio looked impressive against Omiya. Stonewalling the Omiya attack all day and then putting them away with some late goals in quick succession. Montedio, like Kofu, also sport an impressive away record in 2019. They conceded the second fewest goals (37) this season in J2 while scoring the second most goals (34) on the road.

So, this begs the questions; can the Montedio back line prevent Tokushima from scoring even 1 goal on Sunday and can Montedio score when both sides are at even strength?

I do not think Montedio can do both despite their strong defensive record and the amount of goals they’ve scored on the road this year. There was nothing in the previous two meetings between these teams to indicate that Montedio can score at even strength coupled with the fact that Vortis only require a draw to advance. This puts Yamagata at a serious disadvantage. I’ve been wrong so, so, so many times before but I feel the Vortis juggernaut rolls on this Sunday.

Tokushima Vortis 1-0 over Montedio Yamagata.

Look Ahead to the Potential J1 Opponents for the Final Round of the J1/J2 Playoffs

It is going to be close! From the J League website.

1. Shonan Bellmare currently sit 16^th and in the drop zone with 35 points. They face already relegated Matsumoto Yamaga FC on the road and have the best chance of escaping the J1/J2 playoff final of the 3 teams at the bottom. Shonan would love a win though a draw may level them with Shimizu S-Pulse and Sagan Tosu and that would result in Shimizu S-Pulse being thrust into the playoff final if those sides draw on Saturday.

2. Shimizu S-Pulse (15) & Sagan Tosu (14) both sit on 36 points and in a very interesting end-of-season-twist, face each other on the final match day. Either side would love to send the other to their death and knowing that Bellmare only need to get level on points with S-Pulse, means S-Pulse really need to go for the win.

Conclusion

There is so much excitement entering the final match day across the J1, J3 and J2 playoffs this weekend. Yokohama FC facing FC Tokyo in the J1 title decider, though FC Tokyo require a 4-0 drubbing to win the league and are missing some of their star players.

Fujieda and Gunma are gunning for the second automatic promotion slot in J3 and Kagoshima fans everywhere will be watching these games with great anticipation. If Fujieda end up second, Kagoshima are safe from relegation to the J3 as Fujieda do not hold a J2 license and therefore cannot be promoted. However, Fujieda host the 2019 J3 champions, Kitakyushu, and though they drew 0-0 last time. Gunma on the other hand travel to 11^th placed Fukuhsima, who they beat 2-0 the last time these sides met.

This will be fun for those of us that are neutrals as there will certainly be a lot of teams busting their guts going for it in so many games which makes for exciting football. Enjoy.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 1 Preview: (4) Tokushima Vortis vs (5) Ventforet Kofu

Intro

The second installment of the J1/J2 playoff preview looks at the match up between Tokushima Vortis and Ventforet Kofu. This is probably the tastier of the two matchups this round as both teams enter this game in good form, unlike the other matchup between Omiya and Montedio. These are two evenly matched sides with some firepower to light up the scoreboards and this should be a very entertaining match to watch as a neutral.

Tokushima Home Record vs Kofu Away Record

Both sides hold a nearly identical record when it comes to wins, draws, losses, goals scored and goals conceded when comparing Tokushima’s home record and Kofu’s away form. I guess that favors Kofu more than it does Tokushima as this means Kofu are well suited to grab wins on the road. It was pointed out to me that if the match were to end in a tie, the victory goes to the home team. No shootouts and no extra .5 for any away goals. That means if Kofu wishes to advance, they must walk away with the victory on Sunday.

In 22 away matches this year, Kofu has achieved that feat 50% of the time. They have drawn 5 times and lost 6 times but the fact that they won over half their matches on the road speaks volumes for their chances at advancing to the next round. Over their past 5 road games, Kofu has won 3 and lost 2 and conceded 7 goals in all competitions. One of those was an emperor’s cup match and they may not have been playing their strongest lineup so if we removed that result, and only counted J2 fixtures, they would’ve had 4 wins while only conceding 5 goals over that span.

On the other side, Tokushima also hold an impressive home record. They won over half of their matches while only losing 5 out of 23 games this season. One of those losses was very recently but it was to newly promoted Yokohama FC to the tune of 1-0. The other occurred way back in August to none other than Kofu. This means that Tokushima have only lost two times at home over the past 4 months. They’ve been shutout at home on 4 occasions, 5 when counting the emperor’s cup, and have scored multiple goals 9 times at home. They’ve conceded multiple goals only 5 times at home while shutting out their opponents 6 times.

Over the past 5 games at home Tokushima have won 4 times and lost once as previously mentioned. During that span they’ve maintained a 3:1 ratio for goals scored to goals conceded. While offense can win games, defense wins championships and if Tokushima wish to advance to the next round, they’ll need to blunt the Kofu attack on Sunday.

Previous Meetings this Season

Match Day 20 June 15^th 2019: Ventforet Kofu 0-1 Tokushima Vortis. Ken Iwao scored in the 11^th minute off a punched clearance by Kofu goal keeper Kawata, that came right to him inside the 18-yard box. His point-blank shot on the volley went screaming past Kawata for a 1-0 lead that Tokushima wouldn’t relinquish. Kofu had some goal scoring chances but nothing materialized.

Match Day 27 August 10^th 2019: Tokushima Vortis 0-2 Ventforet Kofu. Kofu returned the favor 2 months later when they went to Tokushima and dug out a 2-goal victory. Utaka opened the scoring in the 19^th minute when his power and pace where on full display. He pushed the ball past the Vortis defender, beat him with speed to create a shooting lane and then powered a shot past the Tokushima goal keeper. Vortis had a nice opportunity to tie the match in the 73^rd minute but the Kofu Keeper made a equally nice save. Finally, Uchida added an extra time goal to seal the game.

Leading Scorers

Player Injuries

Tokushima Vortis: FW #15 Takeru Kashimoto fractured his ankle against Yokohama FC and is out. He has chipped in 6 points this season for Vortis but hasn’t been on the score sheet since late June.

Ventforet Kofu: None listed but I know that a couple of their leading scorers were recently cut to include; Yusuke Tanaka (3pts), Shigeru Yokotani (7pts) and Koichi Sato (5pts). Dudu was also on the bench last week agaisnt FC Ryukyu meaning he is back to full health.

Match Prediction

Here are the facts:

1. Ventforet Kofu have won 4 in a row coming into this match while only conceding once.

2. Kofu are unbeaten in 11 out of their last 12 matches.

3. Since late July, Kofu have only lost 4 times in the J2 league.

4. While Kofu started hot this year, and were near the top of the table, they’ve hovered between the 5^th and 8^th spot for most of the season.

5. Tokushima Vortis had a 12-game unbeaten streak prior to their loss against Yokohama FC 2 weeks ago.

6. Vortis have only lost once in their past 15 games and those 36 points saw them rise from 12^th in the table on August 10^th, to 4^th by the end of the season.

7. Vortis have shout out their opponent at home 6 times this season. Kofu have been shut out only 3 times this season as the away side, with their last shutout occurring back on July 20^th on Match Day 23.

8. Vortis have scored multiple goals at home this season 9 times. Kofu have scored multiple goals on the road 10 times this season. One of those was against Tokushima.

9. Kofu have earned 7 points off the playoff contenders on the road this season by defeating Vortis and Yamagata while drawing with Omiya. Tokushima have only earned 1 point off these same opponents at home having lost to Omiya and Kofu while earning a draw against Yamagata.

10. Kofu have beaten Tokushima at home 2-0.

Really no way to separate these teams. This will be a heavyweight, blow for blow, knock down, dragged out fight to the very end. Most people see the surging Vortis squad as the front runner to win the playoff bracket and take on whoever finishes 16^th in J1. I think, we could see an upset on Sunday because of how good Kofu has been on the road.

Let me explain. In the National Football League in America, there are playoffs at the end of the year, similar to what we ‘ll see these next 3 weeks. In that sport, successful playoff teams are those that have proven they can win tough games on the road. In fact, you must be able to win on the road as only 2 teams have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There are plenty of instances where the road team, obviously a lower seeded side, pulls off the upset and wins. I feel that this will happen on Sunday.

I think my dark horse to win this playoff and achieve J1 promotion is Kofu. I think they can defeat Tokushima on Sunday and then go on the road to defeat Omiya, or, if it were truly in their favor, defeat Yamagata at home before traveling to the J1 16^th placed team with promotion/relegation on the line. Kofu were very sluggish against FC Ryukyu this past weekend and FC Ryukyu dominated the possession battle and goal scoring opportunities, but Kofu capitalized when it mattered most. If Kofu can weather the Tokushima attack and strike them on the counter, where they are so lethal, Kofu will march on to the second round.

Ventforet Kofu 2-1 Tokushima Vortis.

Conclusion

Getting my popcorn ready as they say for this one. Nothing more needs to be said. Tune in and enjoy.

J1/J2 Playoffs Round 1 Preview: (3) Omiya Ardija vs (6) Montedio Yamagata

Intro

Omiya Ardija host Montedio Yamagata at the NACK 5 stadium this Saturday in the first round of the J1 Promotion Playoffs. The winner will advance to face the winner of the other semifinal, Tokushima Vortis versus Ventforet Kofu. Omiya had an outside shot at securing automatic promotion just a few short weeks ago but ended the season with 3 straight draws resulting in the overall #3 seed for these playoffs. Montedio didn’t do much better as they lost 3 out of their final 4 games and ended up finishing in the 6^th and final playoff spot.

Home Record for Omiya Ardija and Away Record for Montedio Yamagata

Omiya have played 23 home games all season across two competitions. I am counting the Vissel Kobe match as a home game considering it was played at Nack 5 for the Emperors Cup even though Omiya were considered the away side. Omiya hold a distinct advantage over Montedio when it comes to home vs away records in that Omiya have only lost 3 times at home all season. One of those was the 4-0 loss to Kobe which means they’ve only lost twice at home all season against J2 opponents. Care to guess who one of those losses was? BOOM! FC RYUKYU. In all seriousness, Omiya have an impressive 14W6D3L record at home with 43 goals scored while only conceding 24. If you take away the Kobe match that means only 20 goals surrendered to J2 sides and if you take the FC Ryukyu game with its 4 goals, that means Omiya conceded only 16 goals across 21 games. If I were to guess who the stingier defensive side was in this match-up, I would’ve guessed Yamagata as they were a very tough nut to crack early on this season. Still, over the last 5 home games, Omiya have averaged over 2 goals scored while only conceding a total of 2 goals to their opponents. Meaning they have really tightened up at the back. On the flip side, Montedio have averaged the same amount of goals scored on the road over their last 5 games, but they have conceded far more than Omiya when they’re the visitor.

Montedio started the 2019 season by only losing once in their first 11 road games. They then proceeded to lose 4 out of their remaining 10 road games. There is a stark contrast to how the team started out and how they finished on the road this season. In their first 11 games they scored 14 goals, conceded 8 and had 6 shutouts. Over the course of the last 10, they scored 20, conceded 17 and only shutout their opponent twice. It seems that Montedio have broken down defensively since their strong start. Nearly three quarters of all the goals they scored in the second half of the season on the road (14 of 20) occurred during a 4-game stretch against Reysol, Kagoshima, FC Ryukyu and JEF. They followed that up with losses to Kanazawa and Mito before beating Renofa on the road 3-2 to close out their road schedule. So much of their favorable road results are contained in a short stretch.

As mentioned in the introduction, both sides are entering this match in less than top form. Omiya had won 3 straight prior to their 3 straight draws to Tochigi SC, Niigata and Kanazawa. It seems the Omiya attack has ground to a halt at the most inopportune time. They’ve only scored one goal over the past 3 matches, the other being an own goal against Kanazawa. Montedio, on the other hand, have lost 3 out of their last 4 games including the home loss to Machida Zelvia on the last day of the season. Now, one could argue that Montedio would’ve rather traveled to Omiya vice Tokushima to start the playoffs but that would insinuate some match-fixing and that would definitely upset all the Kagoshima fans if it were true. Plus, rarely does trying to line up your match ups work on sports. More often than not it completely blows up in your face.

Previous Meetings this Season

Match Day 4 March 17^th 2019: Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Omiya Ardija. A Jefferson Baiano penalty kick proved to be the difference in this game after he was brought down in the box early in the first half. Each side traded some goal scoring chances but neither scored the remainder of the match. The Montedio side looked strong defensively and on the attack with Baiano and Sakano in the lineup.

Match Day 26 August 4^th 2019: Omiya Ardija 3-2 Montedio Yamagata. An absolute cracker with 5 total goals. Montedio jumped out to an early 1-0 lead before a Simovic brace in the first half put Omiya up 2-1. Montedio equalized within 10 minutes of the start of the second half before Barada from Omiya put it out of reach after a diving, punched clearance from the Montedio goal keeper fell right at his feet with a wide-open shooting lane.

Leading Scorers for Each Side

Player Injuries

Shockingly none are listed for either side at the moment. However, Jefferson Baiano, Akito Takagi and Shuto Minami havent featured for Yamagata in some time. The same could be said for Omiya players Masato Kojima, Noriyoshi Sakai and Akinari Kawazura.

Match Prediction

Though Montedio proved it could score on the road versus Omiya I think this is two totally different teams we are looking at this weekend. I think Omiya have the better of the 2 goal keepers and the Montedio defense, particularly Kuriyama, will have his hands full with either or both Simovic and Delgado. Montedio have conceded multiple goals in 4 straight games and prior to a string of 1-1 and goal less draws, Omiya had scored multiple goals in 4 straight games. Finally, Omiya’s goal scoring/conceded record over their last 5 home games seems very telling for how this one could end.

Omiya Ardija 3-1 over Montedio Yamagata.

Conclusion

Not sure if this is the tastier of the 2 matches this weekend but it should feature some goals which is always good for the neutral fan. Omiya are going to need to generate some momentum if they are to make it past some tough opponents en route to the J1 and there is no better way than by getting a multiple goal, multiple goal difference victory to start the playoffs.

“Spoiler Alert” Match Day 42 Preview: Ventforet Kofu vs FC Ryukyu 11/24/2019

Intro

We have finally made it to the end. 42 match days compressed into 40 weeks of the J2 season. Reflecting back, it is hard to escape the fact that at one point I thought that the end, and safety from relegation, couldn’t come to soon enough. But now, I wish the season wouldn’t end. This is probably the case for every side not facing promotion or relegation and is the life I’ll need to adjust to for the foreseeable future.

The last match day of the 2019 season means the world to Kofu, yet very little more than a moral victory for FC Ryukyu. If you recall back on match day 19, it was Kofu that ended FC Ryukyu’s home undefeated streak. And they did so in very convincing fashion with a 5-2 victory. They say revenge is best served cold. Well, it will be cold in Kofu on Sunday and taking the wind out of the Kofu promotion sails would be oh so rewarding.

Kofu Weather

Hard to tell. My app says decent temperatures with rain while others say really cold. I’m going, so I’m dressing warm and couldn’t care less about the conditions. Let’s get it on!

Previous Meeting: Match Day 19 06/22/19 FC Ryukyu 2-5 Ventforet Kofu

FC Ryukyu stormed out to a 2 goal lead before Kofu came barnstorming back. Kofu pegged a goal back just before halftime and it was all they needed to begin the comeback. A Kofu goal just after the start of the second half was followed up by a Utaka goal 6 minutes later and then a 4th 7 minutes after that. Kofu added an injury time goal to push the score to 5-2 and the 36 game home-unbeaten streak ended with not much more than a thud.

Ventforet Kofu

A win and they are in the promotion playoffs. Anything less and they may need some help. This side has the fire power, the defense and the determination to make life hell for FC Ryukyu on Sunday and could very easily walk all over us and straight into the playoff rounds. This Kofu side thrives on the counter attacks and they almost beg the opposition to break themselves against a very stingy defense by forcing their opponent to throw everything they have at a side that has surrendered the 5^th fewest goals in all of J2.

Let’s be clear, this Kofu side isn’t invincible but it is the type of squad that has absolutely steam rolled FC Ryukyu in the run in of the J2 season. Kashiwa, Kyoto, Omiya, Vortis and even Verdy have absolutely destroyed FC Ryukyu and left for them for dead. So, let’s look at Kofu’s last few games and see if we can uncover any cracks.

Record over 5 games 3W1D1L, while going L-D-W-W-W in order. Tokyo Verdy absolutely took it to Kofu and probably frustrated them at every turn during their game. Damn DAZN doesn’t have highlights over 4 games old so all I had was YouTube but that was plenty. That recipe for disaster for Kofu was on full display and I hope FC Ryukyu took note and can repeat what Verdy did that day.

Kofu escaped with a draw against Kagoshima the following week when one of their players, #4 Yamamoto, made an insanely stupid challenge and was rightfully sent off with a straight red card. Kofu had an absolute gem of a goal by #25 Mori, but were pegged back after the R/C. Kagoshima had their chances but never capitalized and so the game ended 1-1.

Kofu went on to win 3 straight games against Kyoto, Fukuoka and FC Gifu. Against Kyoto they scored in the 81^st minute on a counter and then saved a PK shortly thereafter. The easily brushed aside Fukuoka and Gifu by a margin of 2 goals in each game.

I said we would look for cracks and there are a few but I’ll save them for the keys to victory.

FC Ryukyu

Undefeated in their past 6 road games, FC Ryukyu stroll into Kofu with only one thing on their mind, revenge. There is nothing else at stake for FC Ryukyu as they cannot move any higher in the table, barring an 8-goal swing between FC Ryukyu and Tokyo Verdy, and promotion/relegation is off the table. Therefore, all that is left is revenge. Revenge for the 5-2 dismantling at home the last time these 2 teams met.

Though FC Ryukyu are undefeated in their past 6 road games, the home record tells a different story and one that cannot be discredited headed into the final match day of 2019. Blown apart for 3 straight losses with a massive goal differential, the road-shockingly-has become the “safe place” for FC Ryukyu at the end of the season.

FC Ryukyu will face their toughest test away from home since the Tokushima match where they lost 6-1. Kofu are a formidable side that has surrendered only half of the total amount of goals FC Ryukyu have all year. They have speed and pace and Kofu will press our back-line into making foolish decisions and rash challenges. FC Ryukyu do have one advantage though, and that is they don’t have to play with any pressure whereas Kofu have it all to do on Sunday as they need a win. A draw may see them slip out of the top 6 and miss the playoffs all together\ so they will be gunning for a win.

FC Ryukyu should see the return of Uejo to the lineup and this is extremely important heading into the final match day. I think Uehara’s height and skill up top combined with Uejo’s knack for scoring goals, Kawai’s speed and Koya’s maturity, could prove to be the difference. I am on the fence on whether or not a return to the lineup of Nishioka will improve the defending as Song Sun’s speed may help to counter the Kofu counter attacks. Unfortunately, Song Sun cannot match the strength of Utaka but his only purpose should be to prevent Utaka from breaking free on the FC Ryukyu net.

Player Injuries

Ventforet Kofu: FW #10 Dudu. Torn hamstring for one of the leading scorers for Kofu but he hasn’t featured for them in over 2 months. No timeline for his return and it would be a surprise to see him out there this weekend.

FC Ryukyu: Nishioka’s injury situation is muddled as he is well past the 3-week mark for return so we’ll once again have to wait about 2 hours prior to kickoff to see what lineup Higuchi has chosen and who has made the reserves.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

1. Play within in yourselves. This is surely going to be a charged atmosphere around the stadium as many of the Kofu faithful are fully expecting a win and berth into the playoffs. This means there is going to be a rather large crowd on hand despite the calls for inclement weather. FC Ryukyu would do well to play relaxed, don’t force passes into tight windows with low probability of success that can start a Kofu counter and most importantly, do not chase the game. Allow the opportunities to come to them through the actions of their opponent trying to crack the game open.

2. Frustrate Kofu and make them deal with the mounting pressure of trying to score. There are times in sports where you can see frustration all over the faces of the players on the superior side when having little success against a lesser opponent. Every missed shot, errant pass and giveaway tomorrow will draw looks of frustration and anger from the Kofu players as many expect them to completely wipe the floor with FC Ryukyu. The longer the game draws on where these two teams are tied, or even in the unlikeliest of situations where Kofu is trailing, will only increase the tension and pressure on Kofu team and make it very hard to score.

3. Park the Bus. An absolute cowardly and cheap way for lesser sides to earn points against stronger opponents. But not so fast, there is a compelling reason for this notion. Kofu are excellent on the counter and are set up well to run into yards of free space on the breaks, but they lack creativity when attempting to break down sides with numerous defenders in the area. So that means the FC Ryukyu defense, and it’s defending mid-fielders, should not push so deep into the attack. Defend, delay and wait for reinforcements to arrive that can support our back line. Trust me, FC Ryukyu has plenty of speed to hit back at Kofu on the counter and score a goal of their own.

4. Need to score. You could file this in the “no kidding” column but Kofu’s goal keeper, Kawata, has been outstanding as of late and has made some spectacular saves these past few weeks. Weak shots will not test this keeper. FC Ryukyu will need Uehara and Uejo to be in top form on Sunday if they are to have nay chance of ruining Kofu’s promotion aspirations.

Match Day 42 Prediction

Kofu has it all to do and can light up the scoreboard with the best of them. Knowing the massive uphill battle FC Ryukyu face on Sunday, I’d leave Kofu a happy man having been able to celebrate a single goal by FC Ryukyu. 4-1 Kofu.

Important Fixtures around J2 on Match Day 42

Kashiwa Reysol have already won the J2 title so that just leaves the battles for the second automatic promotion position, the remaining 3 spots for the promotion playoffs and of course, the final relegation slot. Plenty of drama on the final match day and that makes this weekend really great for the neutral fan.

Omiya have the much tougher draw facing a tougher opponent on the road. Two consecutive draws against Tochigi and Niigata have seen Omiya drop out of the number 2 spot and these two sides drew 0-0 the last time they met. Yokohama FC are undefeated in their last 4 matches and haven’t lost at home in 8 games. Ehime FC haven’t won on the road in over 3 months and haven’t earned a point on the road in over a month and a half.

There is a lot to unpack for the 5 teams jockeying for the final 3 playoff spots. Yamagata, Tokushima and Kofu all have the favorable draws at home against lesser opponents. Kyoto requires Kashiwa to be in cruise control and not really care about a result while also needing help from FC Ryukyu. Mito need the most help and face the toughest draw when they welcome Okayama, the team directly below them in the standings, this weekend.

Kagoshima haven’t won on the road since late August but do have 2 draws during that time. Fukuoka have lost 3 straight, but have won 2 out of their previous 3 at home recently. Tochigi SC have earned 9 points from their past 7 games but they are undefeated in their last 3 games (2 wins and draw). The most recent win came on the road against Nagasaki. JEF have only won 3 games since August but two of them were at home. They are undefeated in their last two home games (1 win and 1 draw). Machida are in real trouble as they face the toughest opponent, who themselves, is looking to lock in their playoff seed.

Match Day Information

Conclusion

We have come to the end of the 2019 season. It has been a great season for the club considering both their successes and failures. They faced several uphill battles; smallest operating budget in J2, terrible weather at a majority of their home games and of course, the transferring of several talented players out of the club. We should all take a moment on Sunday to celebrate these men and their achievements regardless of the outcome against Kofu.

There is no doubt that Kofu are a much stronger side looking to book their ticket at a chance of playing J1 football in 2020. It reminds me of the time when FC Ryukyu wanted to win the J3 championship at home against Thespakusatsu Gunma. We all know how that ended and FC Ryukyu wouldn’t be denied that day. We may see that exact same scenario this Sunday.

Regardless, I am not there in Kofu needing a win by FC Ryukyu, rather, I am there to send the boys off this season and thank them for a wonderful year full of great memories. I implore all that read this or retweet this to come to Kofu on Sunday – despite the terrible weather forecast- and enjoy the 2019 FC Ryukyu side one last time. Chances are we will not see some of these players in 2020 and they deserve the very best from their supporters.

Good Luck to FC Ryukyu, save travels for anyone making the journey and most importantly; let’s have that magical feeling we all experienced in Omiya one more time!