Intro
This game for Ryukyu begins a stretch of matches where they will play six (6) games inside of twenty three (23) days. Make no mistake, this is a hugely important run of games for both Ryukyu, and their manager Kina. Because if they don’t come out of this with a decent amount of points, then we may see the earliest managerial change for in the history of Ryukyu. On the other hand, Gunma is enjoying one of their better starts in the J2 this season on the back of some impressive defensive performances. They are probably feeling pretty confident this week and will look to continue their current winning streak against a side that has yet to win at home all season.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Cloudy, no too hot, but always the prospect of rain on Okinawa despite the low probability of it actually raining. I usually try to post these previews about 48 hours out from the match and though I’ve been wrong on the weather before, rightfully called out on this – thanks @stuartcw and sorry about the YFC weather lol – if I could predict the correct weather I’d also predict our scores each week. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst is the safe bet.
Click>>>> Match Day Info from FC Ryukyu
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: By the time this run of games is over, Ryukyu will have played more than one-third of their matches this season. Can we realistically expect Ryukyu to earn double digit points over their next six games? Would we consider it a failure if they didn’t? It will be no easy task as Ryukyu’s next four games are all against teams currently ranked 4-7 in the table, followed by one of our longest road trips of the season during the mid week, and finally against a team inside the top 10 that is enjoying the new boy bounce in the J2. It seems like a very large ask of Ryukyu to earn a decent amount of points over the next three and half weeks.
There is no doubt we are in a bit of striker injury crisis at the moment but that is not to say that Kusano cannot do the job while awaiting the return of those who are injured, or so we suspect are injured sine we have no news from the club on their status. Kiyotake has also been playing really well on the offense side of the house but has that unfortunate thing going for him where he seems to be indirectly involved in the areas where the opposition scores their goals against Ryukyu. Kanai played well against Yokohama FC, obviously as he scored our only goal and had another lovely chance, and perhaps that is because we cannot find a way to get both Ikeda and Kiyotake into the lineup at the same time. Ikeda never looked comfortable playing out wide in the 4-4-2, and is better suited as a CAM, but Kiyotake is doing so well there these days it is hard to imagine him being unseated if we stick to a 4-2-3-1.
One thing for certain was we definitely needed to see a change at LB as I think the days of Numata as a regular starter have come to an end as what we really need there is a little more pace and stamina to support us on both ends of the pitch. Now, what do we do in the central defending areas of Ryukyu? We made a change in central defense following the loss to JEF when the young duo of Nakagawa and Omori were replaced with a combination of either player and Okazaki, but we do not know if that was due to injury or lack of confidence in those players by the manager. We haven’t even seen Nakagawa since the Renofa match and Omori seems to only be an emergency central defending substitute at this point.
Sure, Yong Jick has put forth the effort, but as I said at the start of the season, we cannot replace Chinen’s skill, but we can replace his tenacity and drive. And I believe that is what we have with the young defenders on loan. The problem is we (Kina) haven’t shown any faith in these players through the growing pains that will naturally occur to allow them to develop into better players. And to what end? It is not as if we are shutting down teams on a consistent basis to see out leads for wins with our current central defending pair. A change at CB must be made to allow Omori and Nakagawa to develop, which will not be an overnight change, as we already know what we’ve got back there these days based on the last five games. Then again, Nakagawa may be injured and since the club has released zero injury news this season for any of our players and therefore this might just be wishful thinking.
Thespakusatsu Gunma: Gunma started the season with a win and two draws before a streak where they had two straight games with a 1-0 score line (1 loss and 1 win), followed by consecutive 2-3 defeats, but then won two (2) games in a row heading into their matchup with Ryukyu. All four of Gunma’s wins this season have been by one (1) goal and they have already recorded four (4) shutouts this season. Gunma are a team similar to Okayama in that they haven’t scored a lot of goals – zero games with more than 2 goals scored – but they certainly don’t surrender a lot either.
Gunma has three (3) wins and two (2) losses over their last five games. In two of those losses they surrendered three (3) goals in consecutive matches. Which is roughly three quarters of the entire goals they’ve conceded all season. Masatoshi Kushibiki was outstanding in net versus JEF where he made save after save to give Gunma the win after an early 7th minute goal. Gunma’s defending let them down the following week in which Niigata jumped out to a two goal lead within the opening twenty minutes. This was followed by both sides trading goals and then a stoppage time goal by Gunma to finish 2-3.
It was almost a similar story the following match against Nagasaki where Gunma found themselves in similar territory being down two goals by the twenty minute mark. But Gunma were able to draw level midway through the second half before a mishandling of a Cristiano shot by Kushibiki found its way over the line. Gunma were able to turn things around after the two heavy losses in quick succession the following week against Mito. Gunma opened the scoring before a handball by one of their defenders allowed Mito back in the game with a PK goal. Gunma utilized some excellent penetrating runs from their attackers, which seems to be an enduring trait of this side, to grab an 80th minute goal for the win.
Gunma’s most recent win came on the road at Morioka where Kushibiki regained the good form he was enjoying against JEF when he made a beautiful double save to keep the score level before an 89th minute goal secured the victory for Gunma. So what can we expect from Gunma this match? If you fail to run at them, in order to find space in their defense, an instead opt to slowly build your attack, Ryukyu will most likely suffer the same defeats of JEF, Mito and Morioka. Gunma looked good defending set pieces in some of their recent games and if Kushibiki is once again in form, it will make life very difficult for Ryukyu. If you attack them like Niigata and Nagasaki did, with diagonal passes and quick changes in direction, we should be able to create enough chances on net to score goals. But keep in mind, the same things can be said about Ryukyu’s defense and we could easily see Gunma tearing apart our backline with the quality runs into the box by their attacking players.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Maintain Focus. Likelihood 1. Definitely the most important one as when Ryukyu check out of games, goals are scored, momentum is lost and points are dropped. Ryukyu’s preferred style of playing it out from the back seems to invite more pressure on a team that already concedes loads of possession and chances to the opposition. In fact, it feels as if there are large stretches of games where Ryukyu barely touches the ball and affords their opponents multiple chances on net with no Ryukyu answer in return. Starting fast and finishing strong our extremely important in games, but right now it seems that Ryukyu need to win the middle third of matches where they seem to be the most vulnerable right now.
The Hot Seat
Last week I wondered if Ryukyu failed to win against Okayama, would it be their worst start to any season since joining the J-League in 2014? Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding yes. Even if Ryukyu win the match on Saturday, it is their lowest point total in the opening ten fixtures of any season and the first ever season to register less than double digit points by this point of a season. Also, a win would only tie the least amount of wins in the opening ten fixtures for any year they’ve spent in the J2.
Ryukyu’s lowest win total to open any season was two (2) back in 2020 but they did manage to earn ten (10) points by their 10th game in a non relegation year. Ryukyu’ previous point totals in ten matches since 2014: 11 points (2014 and 2015), 18 points (2016), 13 points (2017), 15 points (2018) while in the J3, but the stakes were not nearly as high as there was no fear of relegation, and the competition was not nearly as tough. Ryukyu grabbed four (4) wins from their opening four (4) fixtures in 2019 and had reached sixteen (16) points by match day ten, but managed only five (5) more wins the rest of the season. And we all recall the blistering pace Ryukyu were on in 2021 when they had twenty four (24) points by match day ten. Basically, Ryukyu are in some unchartered waters these days.
The point mark that usually symbolizes relative safety in the J2 hovers between 40-42 points. 2020 was an anomaly as there was no relegation that year but that total would’ve needed to be closer to fifty (50) points. Ryukyu currently sit on five points and don’t necessarily end seasons on the highest of highs. In fact, we usually succumb to a mid season slump which, if were repeated this year, would be the final nails in our coffin. There are thirty three (33) games remaining in which Ryukyu must somehow make it to at least 42 points. And when you are struggling for wins at this point of the season, there is no such thing as a let up in your schedule based on your opponents current standing in the table.
The next six (6) fixtures should really determine the fate of Kina as it is probably too condensed of a schedule to make a managerial change inside of that run of games, but does leave enough (hopefully) time in the fixture list to find a suitable replacement. Any replacement will likely need at least 5-7 games to install their system but will still have the opportunity to seek reinforcements in the summer transfer window. That is assuming the club is thinking the same thing and preparing to do as such.
J2 Round 10
So we get a taste of a top of the table clash between two of last seasons relegated teams when (1) Yokohama FC take on (4) Vegalta Sendai at home. And it also happens to be the featured match of the week on the free J-League International YouTube channel. What a treat! For the rest, it seems like a pretty straight forward fixture list of teams in the top half of the table against those in the bottom half with a few games interspersed among teams close to one another in the table. (17) Tokushima Vortis lost their first game of the season last week, have not scored a goal in four (4) games and face (20) Mito Hollyhock on the road in a game that some Ryukyu fans will probably be keeping a close eye on the results.
Conclusion
We can hope, pray, and wish Ryukyu to victory all we want as fans but at the end of the day it comes down to the physical and mental preparations of the team as well as the desire and will of each member of the squad to succeed. Players may have great performances individually, but the entire team must put forth a good effort this weekend. Turnovers are inevitable in any game, but cannot be costly due to players losing focus. Conceding goals will happen, but cannot be treated as if we’ve already lost the game. Leads can, and have been, lost in games so we should never get complacent regardless of the score line. What we need is for a few veterans, on a team full of veterans, to take charge on both ends of the pitch. Yeah, the low point total sucks, but you need to start the climb up and out somewhere. We put our foot on the first rung of the ladder last week. Let’s take the first step up it this week.