The one that got away. FC Ryukyu had a chance to set the clubs record for consecutive wins but instead limped to a 0-0 draw with Omiya Ardija. While both the weather and Ryukyu defense held, the offense was nowhere to be found. Time after time Ryukyu pounded the flanks of the Omiya defense only to find the walls were strong and the passage blocked. It is still a point that many of us would’ve gladly taken prior to the start of the season but having forgot all about relegation this year, albeit maybe prematurely, some of us are left wondering what happened?
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 6 in J2
Conclusion
1. Match Day 6 Highlights
2.Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu CB Tetsuya Chinen: First, he completely handled the larger Omiya striker Haskic and kept him in check all game. Second, he was intent on winning every contested ball and challenge that came his way. Finally, his passing was really good and he nearly ended up on the score sheet when he set up Kiyotake with a lovely through ball in the first half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victoryfor FC Ryukyu
1. Bend don’t break. Likelihood 3. Indeed. Ryukyu saw out a goal-less draw and while they produced little offensively, they at least stymied the Omiya attack.
2. Quick short passes to break the Omiya high defensive line. Likelihood 4. Yes and no. We broke the defensive line early in the game but couldn’t do much the second half.
3. Set pieces could make all the difference. Likelihood 2. Coulda-shoulda-woulda. Ryukyu were gifted a golden opportunity late in the game when Abe was fouled just outside the 16-yard box. Unfortunately, Uesato sent the shot high and wide which ended up being Ryukyu’s last best chance at a goal scoring opportunity on Saturday.
1. A tale of two halves. FC Ryukyu looked the better side to open the game but Omiya looked the far more dangerous team in the second half. Ryukyu out shot Omiya 6-1 in the first half but Omiya turned that around to a 5-2 advantage to close out the game. Granted, few if any of these shots troubled either keeper this weekend and Ryukyu failed to register even one shot on goal in the second half.
2. Missed chances were another theme. Ryukyu had a few good looks on net early but the shots were off the mark and then there was the free kick near the end that was a killer to our hopes of securing all 3 points. For their part, Omiya had a few looks on net but the shots were straight at Taguchi. Omiya also shot themselves in the foot on a couple of dead ball kicks where they committed a foul, or were offsides, which ended the play altogether.
3. Buses were parked and neither team could break through the others defense. It was evident that Ryukyu were searching for that last pass to unlock the Omiya defense but it never materialized and attacks died on the spot. Coming into the match Omiya had given up four goals to what Sporteria calls a spilled ball but only one goal from a cross. Ryukyu simply didn’t put enough shots on target that could have led to rebounds or these types of spilled balls.
4. Do warm ups matter? I am usually buried in my phone during the teams warm up session prior to the game but this time I watched Ryukyu all the way through and I noticed that our attacking players were missing a majority of their shots in the warm up. I get it, you use that time to get loose but those misses carried over into the match. Kiyotake, Numata and Uesato each had chances to put Ryukyu in front in the first half with some good looks on goal but as mentioned earlier, they were all off target.
5. Dropped points. It is hard not to see this one as two points dropped instead of just one point earned. These things happen in any given season so it will be interesting to see how Ryukyu respond at Mito.
5.Prediction
Predicted a 2-2 draw and while I was correct on the outcome, I was far off on the score line. I’ll give myself a draw here. Season Record 3-1-2.
There were 3 questions I asked heading into this round. 1.) Can Ryukyu hold serve with Niigata? Well they did thanks in large part to the heroic efforts of SC Sagamihara at home on Sunday to Niigata. 2.) Can Nagasaki rebound after a loss? Yes, they defeated Kofu on a Ryo Shinzato late goal. 3.) Can Akita continue their hot start? Unfortunately no as Matsumoto Yamaga FC scored multiple goals for the first time which is probably attributed to Akita missing one of their better defenders this game.
7.Conclusion
It is not all bad in the end as Ryukyu still remain in second place, three points clear of 3rd place Zweigen Kanazawa, recorded their third clean sheet this season, and are still undefeated. But now we must regroup and prepare for the test this weekend at Mito Hollyhock. That is thing about this league, you need to have some short term memory when it comes to recent failures and long term memory when it comes to realizing past success.
The shoe is on the other foot this week as FC Ryukyu welcome in Omiya Ardija, a team they have had great success against in years past, and a team that is looking to exorcise those ghosts. The only thing standing between Ryukyu and history is a team that they have habitually beat, but one that won’t lay down so easy. And let’s not forget that Omiya already own a victory on Ryukyu soil.
Weather Forecast and Match Day Info
Match Day 5 Recaps
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu
Omiya Ardija
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 6 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Informationfrom FC Ryukyu
It will be slightly overcast and cool after the rain passes through which should make for some pleasant conditions to watch football. There is always a chance it rains here in Okinawa so be prepared.
There is no escaping the fact that Okinawa is in the midst of their third wave of COVID-19 infections. The number of infections have steadily increased since March 20th and though the club and the league are doing all they can to combat any outbreaks among the fans at games, we all need to do our part within and around the stadium (and possibly the days leading up to the game). Maintain the 2m social distancing guidelines – that means while waiting in line for food, drinks, merchandise, restroom facilities, and when entering and exiting the stadium – and continue to wear your masks when around others inside the grounds. I know this is easier said then done, especially when you have children in attendance, but until the prefecture can get a handle on the recent outbreak, we all run the risk of heading into another state of emergency and possibly games without fans.
FC Ryukyu: It has been a dream start of the season for Ryukyu, but the work is far from done. If you read the recap earlier this week then you know FC Ryukyu are on a historic pace. But you also know that Ryukyu own a dubious record in those columns as they are one of five teams to never achieve promotion after wining their first four games to start a season (2019). And now that list has shrunk to only one team out four who have failed to reach promotion after winning their first five games. I’d personally hate to see Ryukyu make it number two but that largely depends on winning the winnable, achieving the unbelievable, and maintaining the status quo at times. Something we have never been able to do in the two seasons we’ve spent in the J2.
The old adage is offense wins games, defense wins championships. That rings true more than you know these days as FC Ryukyu are winning games through defense which is largely attributed to the CB pairing of Okazaki and Chinen, and Taguchi in goal. The pair had a momentary slip up this past weekend but for the most part have been a fortress for a team that has been one of the worst defending sides in J2 the past two years. For his part, Taguchi is playing some of the best football imaginable. If you finally put a defense behind this offense, and that defense carries this side until that offense starts clicking, then you have the perfect recipe for success.
Heading into the JEF match I was concerned that Abe was going to miss time after a nasty looking injury forced him from the Nagasaki game. But Abe was back out there for the JF match and buried one of the best headers – from distance as well – that you will see this year. Shintaro Shimizu followed that up with his own header to put FC Ryukyu ahead for good just five minutes later. It has been a bit of a rough start to Kiyotake’s Ryukyu career though the LM does have an assist to his credit. You can tell he is slightly perturbed by his performances as he expects so much better of himself and hopefully the Omiya match will be the one that gets him firing.
Though we’d all love to see Kiyotake scoring multiple goals, I think his immediate contributions are more in line with providing quality deliveries to the attacking players. He is already heavily involved in the buildup play but he needs a few crosses to connect with Abe to gain the confidence that can propel Ryukyu even farther forward. So let us be honest, at this point in the season Ryukyu need confidence boosts as much as they need positive results. They have shown the ability to win while maintaining narrow leads as well as winning games when they need to come from behind. All that is left is to go out there each week and beat the teams they should beat.
FC Ryukyu remain consistent with this lineup selection in 2021 while Omiya has made several changes in recent weeks.
Omiya Ardija: This certainly isn’t the same Omiya side from last season, and it certainly isn’t the one that opened the season with a win followed by three consecutive losses. Omiya has really turned things on ever since the late loss to SC Sagamihara on match day three, and they are playing some inspired football at the moment.
Omiya was able to shrug off an early Mito goal on match day one by scoring two second half goals to go on and win. One of those goals came from Masaya Shibayama who is just 18 years old. Shibayama looked to be one of Omiya’s best players in the opening three fixtures but has since disappeared from the highlights and roster altogether. Omiya’s fortunes began a downward spiral when they lost their home opener to Ventforet Kofu 2-0 from two set piece goals. Things continued to look bad when at home to Kyoto Sanga the following week when Omiya conceded an early goal, but luckily some severe weather postponed the match before it gout out of control.
Ardija finally hit rock bottom against SC Sagamihara when they conceded two late goals to the hosts, which also happened to be SC Sagamihara’s only goals scored up to that point, and left Kanagawa prefecture utterly disappointed. But that is when something changed inside the club. I am not sure if it was due to a changing of personnel, or somehow Ken Iwase convinced these guys that they are far better than the overall standings state, and more importantly, they need to start believing it.
Though Omiya wasn’t able to defeat Kyoto in the replay, they looked a far different side than weeks past, and played much better. Omiya were relentless in the press and had multiple chances to win that game but couldn’t find the breakthrough. In an unfortunate set of events, Tomoki Ueda’s challenge on Peter Utaka inside the box led to the PK that ultimately sealed Omiya’s fate. The Omiya players were visibly frustrated at losing this close game, and to their credit, they rose up the following week against V-Varen Nagasaki.
Omiya were motivated and seemed to be hunting for goals in packs against Nagasaki. They opened the scoring early in the first half with Nermin Haskic scoring his second goal in as many games from a very nice header before completely decimating Nagasaki with another first half goal and two second half goals. It was Omiya’s best performance of the year by a mile.
Omiya are playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder these days and may even be viewing themselves as underdogs that lack the respect they are due from their opponent, the league and the media. The whole “us versus the world” mentality you often hear circulating around the sporting world. This is can be a very powerful mental tool that makes Omiya a very dangerous opponent on Saturday, but it is much harder to sustain in the long football season.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Bend don’t break. Likelihood 3. Omiya are just going for it these days which means they will likely come out fast, pile on the pressure in the attack, while pressing in defense, and look to jump out to an early lead over Ryukyu. For Ryukyu, they kind of trade possession and opportunities with their opponents this season in 15-minute chunks so they really need to respond to the early Omiya pressure just as they have done with their past five opponents. Ryukyu may have been fortunate enough to play sides who were too afraid to lose up to this point in season, but that is certainly not the case with Omiya these days who are playing like a cornered animal fighting for their very existence.
2. Quick short passes to break the Omiya high defensive line. Likelihood 4. Ryukyu had far too many turnovers at JEF last week when they were attempting to split the defense and start a counter from long passes emanating in our end. They really need Abe and his hold up play this week so as to get the 3 attacking midfielders involved on the quick breaks.
3. Set pieces could make all the difference. Likelihood 2. One of FC Ryukyu’s strengths this year has been scoring from crosses into the box. Just look at last week against JEF when they scored two to win. However, Omiya has yet to conceded a single goal from a cross but are extremely vulnerable on set pieces. Omiya conceded 3 goals from set pieces in two consecutive games against Kofu and SC Sagamihara, but on the other hand, Ryukyu have yet to score a single goal from a set piece this season. Right now, the Ryukyu attack flows through the midfield and they could very well end up meeting a brick wall when they attempt these types of crosses into the box that have made them so successful this year. Hopefully Uesato or Koki can hit one from a free kick, or Ryukyu can score from a corner to penetrate the Omiya defense.
5. Prediction
FC Ryukyu have won three of the four games they’ve played against Omiya. Last year FC Ryukyu completely blanked Omiya to the tune of 8 goals scored, 0 conceded in their two games. Ryukyu have scored multiple goals against Omiya every time with the lowest score line of any of these matches being just 3 total goals scored on match day 30 last year.
Omiya took the mid week loss to Kyoto Sanga FC pretty hard but responded really well when they dispatched V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 this past weekend. I don’t think we’ll see the goal scoring bonanzas we have come to enjoy when these two sides meet, instead, I think this ends in a spirited 2-2 draw where Ryukyu concede multiple goals for the first time all season. Season Record 3-0-2.
6.Match Day 6 in J2
All Times Listed in Japan Standard Time
As it is likely that (1) Albirex Niigata continue their winning ways over (17) SC Sagamihara this week, the only real questions are: 1.) Can (2) FC Ryukyu hold serve over (10) Omiya Ardija? 2.) Can (19) V-Varen Nagasaki rebound at home to (4) Ventforet Kofu who are also looking to rebound from their recent loss to (8) FC Machida Zelvia? 3.) And finally, can (4) Blaublitz Akita continue their hot start over the extremely low scoring (21) Matsumoto Yamaga FC?
7.Conclusion
Can FC Ryukyu make history by winning their 6th consecutive game or will they fall victim to a team that they should beat on paper? Either way, it is another early test for this side in what is shaping up to be a promising season here in Okinawa. This should be a very electric contest with both teams trading chances on the counter attack so sit back and enjoy.
FC Ryukyu have equaled their greatest ever wining streak (5) dating back to 2018 when they defeated JEF United Chiba 2-1 on Saturday. The win moves FC Ryukyu into second place behind also undefeated Albirex Niigata. This was the first time FC Ryukyu ever beat JEF – ever scored against JEF- and played from behind all year. You may not consider a win against a team lower than Ryukyu in the standings as a significant achievement but considering the history between these clubs, and how that fits into this season, it was a huge win for Ryukyu.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Review of the Keys to Victory
Prediction
Talking Points
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Day 5 Highlights
2.Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu GK Junto Taguchi: While Tanaka’s efforts shouldn’t go unnoticed, neither should Taguchi’s efforts be lost in the box score. Taguchi made save after save in the first half to keep the score level and continued to pile up the big saves in the second half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. And they did. Ryukyu overcame a deficit for the first time all year and responded well in the face of adversity. The minor details matter in any season and this win was huge for Ryukyu for so many reasons. You cannot quantify this stat, but I want you to understand how important this win was for Ryukyu mentally to score, come from behind, and defeat an opponent they have never beat in two seasons. Only four more opponents to go in that category.
4.Prediction
Well I said we’d win by 1 goal at least. Season Record 3-0-2.
5.Talking Points
1. Playing as a unit. Ryukyu have shown a penchant this year for picking each other up when one member is having a bad day at the office. This week it was Chinen’s turn to have a forgettable movement, but both the team and then Chinen responded accordingly. Chinen slipped and allowed JEF to penetrate our defense, to which Okazaki also slipped on the turf though I am not sure where he was recovering to after he got to his feet, and then JEF finally had a wide-open shooting lane to score. Chinen, Yong Jick, and Numata more than made up for that early discretion with their defending at the end by clearing balls, blocking shots, closing down shooting lanes and marking men. Chinen will use this game as teaching lesson and will respond accordingly, don’t worry about him.
Photo Credit: J League. The Captain Uesato picking Chinen up after the game. Chinen responded well to an earlier mishap, evidence of the weight lifted off the teams shoulders from that win.
It should also be noted how the team responded to adversity. We already noted Numata, Yong Jick and Chinen in defense, but it was Tanaka in the attack. Ryukyu played from behind for all of 3 minutes before taking the lead for good within 5 minutes of JEF’s opening goal. Tanaka’s two crosses were met by Abe and Shintaro Shimizu and though the crosses were on target, the two forwards had a lot to do with them when they arrived. I spoke earlier in the week how it was good for Shintaro to play in the reserve games to get firing and it paid off this week. Abe for his part, is the best finisher in this league.
2. A game of missed opportunities. According to my count, JEF missed 6 golden opportunities to Ryukyu’s 3. Abe missed two early from tough bounces and being wrong footed, and also Ikeda missed a wide-open header early, but JEF had many great looks on net yesterday that ultimately sailed high and wide. The two misses by JEF near the end sealed their fate.
3. Send me everyone! JEF made a single substitution of 5 players at one time. I’ve never seen this and that had to be unsettling to a team when you replace half of the outfield players. Maybe it was an act of desperation in an attempt to equalize, but Higuchi was able to respond by also inserting Yong-Jick and allow both Uehara and Yong Jick to mark Salomon on all set pieces near the end.
4. I think the early cracks are visible on how to break down Ryukyu. I love Tanaka’s aggressiveness and assertiveness in the attack, but I think teams are starting to realize that attacking down the right, and left, might be this team’s Achilles heel. I am not saying that Tanaka cannot defend, or won’t, but that teams are starting to realize Ryukyu prefer to attack from the flanks, lack the thrust through the middle, and over commit at times down the sides may open up us in new ways. I have no clue how to remedy this as this puts all the pressure on the CBs and CDMs to cover the back when Ryukyu commit to the attack, but everything is working right now so no need to tinker with the formula for success.
6. Match Day 5 in J2
The Niigata battering ram continued along its path of destruction by dismantling Tokyo Verdy 7-0. The amount of goals scored by Niigata in that single game is more than 13 teams have scored all year in J2! It was kind of a disappointing weekend for some of the favorites as Nagasaki, Kofu, Kyoto, and Yamagata all lost.
With one more win FC Ryukyu will set the club’s single season record for consecutive wins. But that is no easy ask despite their opponent, Omiya Ardija, being one that Ryukyu have experienced many fortuitous results against in their short time in J2. Just like this week with Ryukyu needing to cross a major obstacle in JEF, Omiya too will be looking to exorcise some ghosts of years past against Ryukyu.
Would you have agreed to take the 15 points Ryukyu have earned at the start of the season if you knew it would pay dividends later when it comes to a relegation scrap? Do you know that FC Ryukyu are 1 of only 5 teams to win their opening 4 fixtures and not get promoted that year (2019)? Do you believe that 6 of 7 teams who opened the J2 season with 5 consecutive wins have gone on to earn promotion? I don’t want FC Ryukyu to be the second team in that stat to not to earn promotion. What do you believe about FC Ryukyu?
FC Ryukyu are off to a dream start in 2021 but much like 2019, JEF United Chiba will look to put a quick stop to Ryukyu’s momentum. I certainly did not see Ryukyu achieving four wins from four at the start of the season and was rather content when they had won three in a row to open the campaign. I think Ryukyu took advantage of a strong V-Varen Nagasaki side that are simply struggling to put all the pieces together at the moment but, Ryukyu also looked really good in doing so. However, JEF is another set of obstacles altogether as of all the teams in J2, JEF really has Ryukyu’s number.
Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 4 Recaps
Team Previews
JEF United Chiba
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
No complaints here. Looks like a lovely day for football.
JEF United Chiba: Where to begin? A team that has a long history? Yes. A team that has a recent history of success against FC Ryukyu? Yes. An organization and fan base with lofty expectations due to that lengthy history but always seem to fall short of expectations? Yes. Has JEF looked good in the 4 games leading up to this match? Not particularly. Can we say the same thing every time leading up to FC Ryukyu facing off with JEF, and yet Ryukyu still manage to lose? Unfortunately yes!
JEF are quite possibly the longest running joke in J2 for some of their past antics but whenever they play Ryukyu all of that is thrown out the window. A side by side comparison shows us that JEF owns roughly the same amount of possession in their past 4 games that Ryukyu’s opponents achieved (54%). However, FC Ryukyu are out shooting JEF by nearly 4 shots per game with at least 2 more of those shots being on target.
JEF has begun 2021 with one win, two draws and one loss under second year manager Jong-hwan Moon. When JEF opened the season at home against Kofu they displayed a bit of lackluster defending that allowed Kofu the freedom of movement and space to grab the early opener. JEF responded with a goal in the second half when Keita Buwanika rose high above the Kofu defense to bury a header. JEF then conceded a late PK but the goalie was able to stop the shot to keep the score line level. JEF were able to grab the early lead the following week at Ehime when defender Daisuke Suzuki sent a thunderous header past the Ehime keeper. But JEF allowed Ehime to hang around all game and once again the defense let them down when they needed them the most.
On match day 3 Blaublitz Akita came to Chiba and absolutely put it on JEF winning 2-0. JEF missed some chances during their counter attacks but they had no idea on how to break down the Akita defense despite the lopsided possession totals favoring JEF 71/39. JEF grabbed their first win of 2021 when they traveled to Matsumoto Yamaga FC by eking out a 1-0 victory in some rather poor conditions.
Averaging less than a goal a game, JEF are not a particularly strong team when you look at their results to date. They’ve only played one game this year when they had less than 50% possession but they are not doing much when they do have the ball. Against Ehime and Akita they were able to muster 10 total shots in each contest but were held to 5 against the stronger Kofu and Yamaga sides. JEF neither controls games or imposes their will on their opposition. They simply hope for breakthroughs to put themselves level or into the lead.
There is little doubt that JEF will want to start fast against Ryukyu by controlling a majority of the possession and chances, but this plays directly into Ryukyu’s strength as they are content on striking teams on the counter. And I am not sure JEF has the firepower to catch up to Ryukyu if they push the score line above 1 goal on Saturday.
FC Ryukyu: The Ryukyu match with Nagasaki was bittersweet. First, Ryukyu looked good allowing the game to come to them and hitting Nagasaki on the counter. Second, they defended well as a unit. But in the end, Ryukyu lost Abe to injury, and have no idea on his status, which could derail the momentum Ryukyu have built up in their first four games.
A lot of talk coming out of the club by the players and manager emphasize that they are not really focused on trying to control games with large amounts of possession like they did last year. Instead, Ryukyu are content on hitting their opponents with counter attacks. This is where Abe will be missed the most as his holdup play as an outlet valve for the team has been phenomenal this year. A lot of Ryukyu counterattacks started and ended with Abe. I am not sure who will step up in his place as he is not easily replaceable. Shintaro Shimizu is the likely candidate as he is the youngest of the 3 remaining strikers that Higuchi dresses each week. There is also an outside chance that Higuchi moves Ikeda into the FWD role but that would mean dressing a new midfielder for the first time all season. And Ryukyu do not have many choices at the moment.
Ramon is likely out a few more weeks while he deals with a soft tissue injury and Nakagawa may not be match fit yet. The only healthy options are Yu Tomidokoro or Shunsuke Motegi. But neither is a true CAM so I think Higuchi needs to stick with Ikeda at CAM and make the adjustment at FWD. There are the remote possibilities of of swapping Shimizu and Ikeda, bringing Tanaka up to RM – pushing Koya to CAM – and starting Makito Uheara at RB. But Higuchi could just as easily dress Hitomi if he thinks that neither Shintaro, Akamine, or Uehara can withstand the rigors of 60 minutes in the starting role.
Ryukyu should remain unchanged behind the front four with Uesato, Koki, Numata, Tanaka, Chinen, and Okazaki. These guys have been great at closing down shooting lanes, stifling the opposition’s attack, and will once again be called upon to do so with what may turn out to be a muted offensive performance by Ryukyu on Saturday. And yet, there are even more injuries that Ryukyu need to contend with.
Dany Carvajal recently went under the knife to repair some stress fractures to his lower leg and will be away from the team for 3-4 months. This means that Tsumita becomes the backup to Taguchi and I hope that he can push Taguchi the way Dany did in practice as we cannot afford for Taguchi to become complacent between the sticks when there are some winnable games on the horizon.
The JEF United Chiba game doesn’t represent a ‘must win’ game in the true sense. It is more for the Ryukyu psyche than anything. JEF are one of six teams – Iwata being the other but Ryukyu have already beat them this year – that FC Ryukyu have never defeated during their time in the J2. You’ve probably heard me say this on a few occasions, to include the fact that they have never scored a single goal against JEF in their entire history, and that is what makes this game so important to Ryukyu. Even more so when you consider that Higuchi’s goal for the season is 80 points for the club. While Ryukyu are a long way off from that total right now, and in spite of the fact of JEF sitting well below Ryukyu in the standings, any points earned in this game will fall squarely inside the Points Over Expectation Table.
It isn’t always about defeating an opponent that is stronger than you on paper that determines the strength of a side. Sometimes it is overcoming the mental hurdles and past failures that can make all the difference. And while that variable isn’t easily quantifiable, it is vitally important for Ryukyu’s overall success.
4.Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. It doesn’t matter how JEF have performed the past 4 rounds. It doesn’t matter how Ryukyu have performed the past 4 rounds. Prepare better than JEF. Execute better than JEF. Show the mental resolve to dig this one out. Overcome the challenges that have plagued us in the past and slay this beast once and for all.
5.Prediction
I do not expect Ryukyu to go out there and light up JEF, as they’ve never done that before despite JEF doing some pretty calamitous stuff throughout the years. Predicting a win in spite of the records is even bolder but that is what I am going to do as this isn’t the same team from 2019 or 2020. 1-0 in favor of FC Ryukyu. It won’t be pretty but it will be effective. Season Record 2-0-2.
6. Match Day 5 in J2
Times are listed in JST
(3) Ventforet Kofu hosting (10) FC Machida Zelvia and (8) Montedio Yamagata against (9) Fagiano Okayama stand out as the two fixtures with the most top half, and promotion, implications this round. Not to be outdone, (4) Zweigen Kanazawa and (5) Blaublitz Akita, will look to continue their hot starts to 2021. This will be Akita’s first home game of the 2021 season and quite possibly their toughest fixture to date. Elsewhere there are some bottom of the table clashes that could have big impacts for these clubs late in the year.
No J2 action this weekend as the J-League International YouTube channel will broadcast a Levain Cup match between Tokushima Vortis and Oita Trinita.
In 2019, it was JEF who ended Ryukyu’s unbeaten run of 6 games to open the season. Then they defeated Ryukyu to open the 2020 season. You know all the history between these two clubs. Well then…
FC Ryukyu played their first of six games in the 2021 J Elite League this past Sunday and I was fortunate enough to attend. Ryukyu will play another 5 games in a round-robin home and away tournament against Nagasaki, Kagoshima United FC and Avispa Fukuoka inside Group C. The opening game ended in 1-1 draw with two first half goals from both sides but I was more excited to see some of the players on the team that haven’t featured for Ryukyu this season.
Brief History on the J Elite League
Prior to this year I had no idea that there was even a ‘reserve’ league in existence for the J-League, but that was based on the fact that FC Ryukyu never participated in this type of tournament before. The only history I can find about any ‘reserve tournament’ existing for the J-League was from 1993-2009 before taking a lengthy break until 2016, followed by the J-Satellite League in 2018 and 2019, and finally the creation of the J Elite League in 2020. However, the 2020 season as cancelled due to the Coronavirus.
The League is designed on the premise of developing players under the age of 21, those within a team’s youth academy, and for the reserve members of each team. This year’s League will feature 14 clubs within 3 groups that are broken up geographically in a round-robin tournament from March 8 – November 30. Each club must have at least 3 U-21 participants in each match and they can make up to 7 substitutions each game through three substations not counting any made at half time. Plus the ‘concussion’ substitution rule change is in effect for the league.
Their was a cash incentive paid out to the top 6 sides of this tournament in 2018/19 but I am not sure if that system is still in place for 2021. As far as I can tell, there isn’t an official section of the J-League website that is dedicated to posting the results of each match or the overall standings. As for now, all you have to go on is the press releases from each of the clubs participating in the tournament. More information about the League can be found in the links below this section.
Luckily V-Varen Nagasaki posted a video for this match to their official YouTube Channel
Talking Points
1. These matches obviously benefit the reserve players more than the academy players but this game couldn’t have come at a better time. Most of the starting 11 for Ryukyu were either bench players from previous matches or players you would expect to feature in the event of an injury to a starting member. And it was good to get these guys “match experience” with FC Ryukyu facing a bit of an injury crisis at the moment.
You may have seen that Dany Carvajal will be out for a few months while he deals with a stress fracture to his lower leg. Though Taguchi has a stranglehold on the starting GK position, I am sure the competition for the starting role at practices will fall off with Dany out and Ryukyu are left with only 1 other GK with any J2 experience, Inose. However, it was Tsumita who got the start over Inose on Sunday. Perhaps they want to see what they have in Tsumita moving forward or perhaps he has earned the #3 GK role for Ryukyu.
Shintaro Shimizu leveled the score with a thunderous strike and his contributions to the first team will be vital in the event Abe misses time due to injury. There has been no word on the status of Abe following his exit due to injury this past Saturday and I truly do not expect the club to release any unless it is serious enough to warrant a lengthy absence. In my opinion, that leaves Shintaro as the likely candidate to start at FWD for Ryukyu. He mas made appearances this season but could be asked to play a lot more in the coming weeks.
It is a shame there are only five more of these games throughout the year as you would want these reserve players to get as many match minutes as possible in the event they are called up. Still, I think Ryukyu made the right call to join this league with the number of players they have on the roster so as to evaluate what they have at any given moment and more importantly by season’s end.
2. It was a telling sign to see who didn’t dress for this match. In particular, Ramon and Nakagawa. There is chatter amongst the Ryukyu supporters that Ramon is dealing with a minor injury that won’t keep him out for long, but the rumors surrounding Nakagawa are more concerning. Some of the supporters said that Nakagawa arrived in “rough shape” to Ryukyu this offseason. This could mean anything from a nagging injury requiring a rehabilitation and strengthening period or just being out of football shape from not featuring on a regular basis for the better part of two seasons. I hope Nakagawa is progressing in his efforts to return to the pitch as he can provide a huge boost to the attack when match fit. He may need to return sooner rather than later in the event Ikeda is asked to fill in up top for the injured Abe.
We also didn’t see RB Tavares or MF Sawada in this match and there has been no word on their status to date.
3. Yong-Jick looks to be a better CDM than CB. When Murase came on for Ichimaru, Yong Jick moved forward into the central mid fielder role and he looked more comfortable, more in control, and was better positioned defensively than I’ve seen from him in the past. Ryukyu’s only other center backs on the roster are Fukui and Murase so they don’t have the luxury of depth at the position to make the switch permanent, but it may provide some flexibility for Ryukyu moving forward. I would have rather seen Makito Uehara make the move to CDM this game but I understand why it is important to get him some game reps at his listed RB position.
4. Shunsuke Motegi looked good in his first full match in quite some time. Ryukyu currently dress four forwards each match but I don’t think that is sustainable. Motegi was a very good player before coming to Ryukyu and his inclusion into the top team could prove vital in the case of Shintaro moving into the starting FWD role.
5. FC Ryukyu and the fans should be very excited for what they have in both Reo Yamashita (LB) and Koki Yushin (MF). Both players had a really good game against this level of competition and the future looks really bright for the 16-year-old Yushin. He more than held his own out there and I was surprised to find out he was that young and playing that well against some of the senior players from Nagasaki. Yushin’s development could move forward rapidly if he sees regular action in the remaining games of this tournament.
Reo Yamashita played well enough to at least warrant consideration in the Ryukyu top team if Numata is injured or requires a rest day. Yamashita is the only other LB on the roster and despite not having played a single minute at this level of competition, the college player looks like he could withstand some of the rigors of the J2. There is still a steep learning curve he needs to navigate but he displayed plenty of confidence and skill in his first match.
6. It is hard to assess where the level of this competition is compared to the J2 and J3 leagues. First, most of the players in the lineup were veterans of the J-league so I cannot say that it was any less than the level of J2, or any more than J3. Second, I think there were only about 4 youth players that featured between the two sides so it was not as if we were seeing the likes of the U-23 sides from years past or the famous all Japanese U-23 side from the inaugural J3 campaign of 2014. Finally, it is the exact type of competition needed to keep reserve players fresh while allowing youth players to gain valuable match experience at the current level of their parent club.
Conclusion
This was my first time watching a reserve team match for FC Ryukyu and I thoroughly enjoyed the day out with my son in a relaxed setting. I am not sure how many of these match recaps I will be able to write for the reserve games as the information surrounding this tournament is sparse and the match reports following the games even less so. Hopefully I can get to the remaining home matches to provide some more insight in the future but that will largely depend on when the matches are held and if fans are allowed to attend.
FC Ryukyu have equaled their longest ever winning streak in J2 with their 4th win from 4 this past weekend. Ryukyu now sit second in the table, level on points, with Albirex Niigata and have looked a far better side than we’ve seen these past few seasons. The loss continues to add to the struggles of Nagasaki but I wouldn’t count this team out just yet as there is still 38 rounds to play.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion
1. Match Highlights
2. Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu Mid Fielders Ren Ikeda & Koya Kazama: It was to hard to chose either one so I will go with a joint man of the match for round 4. Ikeda opened the scoring on a spectacular one time volley, and then added his 3rd goal of the campaign which ultimately turned out to be the winner for FC Ryukyu. Ren was set up on both of his goals by Koya Kazama with the second assist being the best of the bunch. Koya received the ball deep in the Nagasaki box, and could have rightly tried a shot from that range but instead opted to send a pass all the way back through the box to the streaking Ikeda who buried the goal. These two could have made it a hat-trick in both departments if Ikeda had buried a wide open chance early in the first half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. The entire team played well under the Nagasaki pressure.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. And that they were. The only miss that stands out was the Koki Kazama shot that rocked the crossbar and would have put Ryukyu up by 2 goals early. But since Ryukyu have been saved a by the crossbar a few times this year, this stuff evens it out.
4. Talking Points
1. Doing more with less. FC Ryukyu were once again out possessed by their opponent but were able to bend, not break, when Nagasaki were attacking. Ryukyu needed to be clinical in their limited opportunities and they did just that. So far, Ryukyu have been playing a majority of their games this year with a lead so they haven’t been forced to chase a game which could possibly expose the back line. Though it needs to be said, Ryukyu have been very good at allowing the game to come to them instead of attempting to press.
2. There were a few nervy moments early on. Nagasaki’s attack was a little too narrow at the start and our central midfielders did really well to crowd out the top of the box when Nagasaki pushed deep into the Ryukyu end of the field. Nagasaki had two really good chances in the first half with one shot barely missing and the other being a wasted opportunity when Kato went at it alone instead of passing to one of the wide-open players on either side. The lone goal by Nagasaki came after Ryukyu had established a 3-goal advantage and there wasn’t much more Taguchi could have done as the ball bounced through a lot of traffic before Edigar Junio redirected it into the far corner. On that note, Junio made an immediate impact on the game when he came on in the second half.
3. The victory comes at a high price. Takuma Abe went down awkwardly in the 80th minute when he went sliding in for a cross by Numata. Abe’s left knee dug into the turf which then made it look like his hip was either hyperextended or he did some sort of damage to his lower back. He was forced to crawl over the touch line before briefly returning to his feet to make his way to the stretcher. Abe was in serious discomfort and there is no telling what the exact injury is or how long he will be out until the club releases a statement. It is a big loss for this team since Abe adds more than just goals for the team. His hold up play has been excellent this year and a lot of scoring chances begin with Abe getting the ball to one of the midfielders in space. It will come down to either Shintaro Shimizu or Takuya Hitomi starting at FWD with the veterans Akamine and Uehara spelling either of those two. There is one other option. Ren Ikeda could move into the FWD role like he did last year when both Abe and Uehara were out injured but he is not the same player in that role as Abe and that would leave a void in our central midfield as there has been no sign of Nakagawa up to this point.
5. Prediction
I was way off with my 2-1 victory for Nagasaki. Do not mind that at all. Season Record 2-0-2.
Ryukyu were not the only side with a shock win this round as SC Sagamihara earned their first ever win – while also scoring for the first time this season- when they defeated Omiya Ardija. Zweigen, Jubilo and Mito all thumped their opponents this round and Akita continues to pile up points in a strong opening act to their inaugural J2 season.
7. Conclusion
Heading into this round I said this would be a statement game for FC Ryukyu and they certainly answered the call. It is still to early to jump to any conclusions but the signs are encouraging. Ryukyu are facing a bit of an uphill battle when they travel to JEF United Chiba this week as it will likely be the first time where there are multiple changes to the starting 11 due to the Abe injury. While Nagasaki represented its own unique set of challenges for Ryukyu, JEF has a completely different set of obstacles to overcome. Ryukyu have never earned a single point off of JEF and they have yet to find the back of the net in the four games these teams have played. Heading into this match without your best forward is not ideal so we will now see how Ryukyu responds in the face of adversity.
FC Ryukyu will look to continue their fast start when they welcome in V-Varen Nagasaki this weekend. Ryukyu are in the midst of their longest winning streak in two seasons, while Nagasaki are looking to rebound from a rough start to the season. The match for FC Ryukyu is certainly their toughest to date, but at this point, a majority of the matches in the opening quarter of the season represent their own unique set of ‘firsts.’ First game of the year with a newly formed team; first road game; first game against a tougher opponent; first game against a weaker opponent; first game playing from a deficit; first game coming off a loss; and so on. Some may wonder if this Ryukyu side is for real. Well, we should have some idea at the end of this round.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Match Day 3 Recaps
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu
V-Varen Nagasaki
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion
1.Weather Forecast and Match Day Information
Possibly the best weather forecast for Ryukyu this season. Slightly overcast, but the off chance it rains once again. Be prepared either way.
FC Ryukyu: When your team is on a 3-game winning streak, it is hard to find many faults as they’ve risen to the occasion every single time. Look no further than FC Ryukyu’s total time playing with a lead compared to playing from behind. 227 minutes played while leading, 64 minutes at an even score line, 0 minutes playing from behind. Granted, when you score two goals in the opening minute of two consecutive games that number is naturally going to be inflated. But they still kept Iwata and Gunma completely off the score sheet and prevented Renofa from scoring in the final 38 minutes.
In 2019, 5 of Ryukyu’s 13 wins came in the form of a shutout. That number jumped to 10 out of 14 in 2020. That can be attributed to the difference in the amount of goals conceded between those two seasons and so far Ryukyu are off to their best start defensively of any season in the J2. And that, as I stated in the first preview of 2021, will be the telling sign for the overall fate of the team this year. There is no doubt that Chinen benefited from his first season at the J2 level last year, and somehow, Okazaki has started to put it all together after what seemed to be a career trending in the wrong direction. At least for now we haven’t seen the poor judgement, consistently out of position play that plagued us at the back for much of the past few seasons.
Abe will continue to get his goals and eventually Ryukyu will start to dictate games from their mid-field, but for now, they are winning through defense. Even more so, they are winning with the same combination of players. Ryukyu remained roughly in tact through the transfer window despite the departures of Koizumi and Kawai that many expected and maybe, just maybe, these players have the experience required in Higuchi’s system to make some real noise in the J2 this year.
When you view the lineup each week you wonder how some of the better players are left off the bench, but I would argue that the sum of this team is much greater than the individual parts. In 2019, we had talented players in Suzuki, Nakagawa, and Uejo. In 2020, it was Abe, Koya, Koizumi and Kawai. But this side could never put it all together on both ends of the pitch. Perhaps the end of 2020 – with Taguchi, Tanaka, Okazaki, and Chinen starting – was actually the beginning of what Higuchi had hoped to create all these years. And now we are seeing the benefits of playing as team rather than a group of talented individuals.
V-Varen Nagasaki: I am happy to welcome in Daniel, author of the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog, for this week’s preview. Daniel has been one of the best English bloggers out there these past few years and his weekly previews/reviews are a must follow. So there is no better source on the state of Nagasaki and what we can expect from them this round.
Q.Great to talk with you once again my friend. I know things haven’t gone according to plan so far, but I guess that comes with the territory when there are high expectations surrounding the team. Personally, I think Nagasaki are too good of a team to be down for to long, and I also fear them busting out in a big way this week, but it seems they were a bit frustrated in the attack last week against Ehime. What do you think is holding them back?
A. Thanks for having me again, Geoff! Especially in the game against Ehime and even in the win against Kanazawa, the poor usage with our chances was the biggest issue. Had V-Varen won this game 4-1, I do not think anyone could have said that it was undeserved because we really were dominant for most of the game and only allowed Ehime to have four shots on target, of which two came in the moment they scored their goal. I am quite confident that we can turn this problem around as there are many decent offensive players in the squad and some of them (Edigar Junio, Ibarbo, Yamazaki) have yet to make an appearance this season.
What may be the bigger issue, is some of the decisions made by the new manager, Takayuki Yoshida. His substitutions have had a rather negative impact in every game so far. Against Niigata, players were all over the place, but not in the positions in which they have played their best football in the past. Against Ehime, we needed to score another goal and the team kept on attacking, but from the moment Caio and Togashi were subbed, V-Varen lost their momentum. I also wasn’t a big fan of the formation he used in Niigata.
Q.We are not even remotely close to the ¼ mark of the season, but what is your impression of Nagasaki through their first 3 games?
A. Overall, quite positive. Defensively, I think we may be even better than last season. The team was a bit unlucky in the situations that lead to Niigata’s and Ehime’s goals and in general, our opponents have had very few decent chances. Offensively, we just need to start scoring. The chances have been there already, the players just need to take them.
Q.I see that the formation changes week-to-week under Yoshida and that Luan has played across 3-MF positions already. This has to be somewhat unsettling for the players in the squad. In your opinion, is Yoshida attempting to bend the squad around his preferred 3-4-2-1, or is he coming around to utilizing the players that he inherited in their natural positions?
A. The formations used against Kanazawa and Ehime were quite similar – with four defenders and one target man up front. Just the midfield was arranged differently. Against Niigata, however, V-Varen started with five defenders and that meant that Yoshida replaced an attacking player with a central defender. Defensively, it worked well considering that Niigata only had a couple of chances from open play and they were shots from about 15-20 meters out, but offensively, the team was not able to really bother Albirex. Also, V-Varen have been very good defensively with four defenders (only 39 goals conceded last season), so I did not think it was necessary to weaken the offense just to have an extra defender on the pitch. And it became worse with all the substitutions in this game.
Luan started on the left, then moved into the center and finished the game on the right. Otake has played in right midfield or behind the striker for most of his career, but when he came off the bench against Niigata, he played on the left. Sawada, a winger, is very good going one-on-one and can take on several defenders, but Yoshida brought him on as left back and had him sit back as protection in case Albirex would go on a counter attack. Akino is a defensive midfielder and he is the best passer on the squad and has initiated many attacks with long balls, but he finished the game as central defender. Meanwhile, Shinzato, a central defender, played most of the second half as defensive midfielder.
None of this made sense to me and I was shocked by how the manager, who already spent last season with the team and should know the players’ strengths, just shifted them back and forth and into (for them) untypical positions. I hope the Niigata game is a one-off because to me it was chaotic. In the end, it all goes back to the question of whether a managerial change was necessary or not and if different tactics are needed. The team collected 80 points last season and finished with a goal difference of +27. I understand that every manager wants to implement his own ideas, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! V-Varen have a very decent squad and almost all key players remained at the club. If Yoshida can get his tactics sorted, we have a very good chance for promotion.
Q.Nagasaki is still waiting on some reinforcements who haven’t entered the country yet correct? Where do you think they will fit in?
A. As of now, all players, who are under contract, are there, but Edigar Junio and Victor Ibarbo arrived in Nagasaki relatively late and they have not been included in a matchday squad so far. Once he is ready to go, Edigar Junio should be our first-choice striker and from the comments I saw on Twitter, many in our community expect him to score 15-20 goals. As for Ibarbo, it is complicated. He was supposed to be one of the best players in the league as well, but last season only got six starts. I can only guess that he did not put in enough work in training to deserve more playing time, but he still made quite an impact with one goal or assist every 116 minutes of playing time. If he is ready to go to work, he is also a candidate for a starting role, but I think that is a big “IF”.
The club is also still trying to sign a winger called Wellington Rato from Brazilian Serie A team Atletico Goianiense and their president said last week, that V-Varen had matched the transfer/loan fee requested by Atletico, but a few days later he said that the deal was off due to a disagreement regarding the payment, which V-Varen apparently requested to split into two instalments. A few months ago, V-Varen were also trying to sign Winger Jaroensak Wonggorn from Thai League team, Samut Prakan City, but the clubs could not come to an agreement. However, last week there was news about V-Varen and a few J1 clubs, including Kashima, still being interested in him.
Q. Who has been the best Nagasaki player to date?
A. First name that comes to mind is Cayman Togashi. He works relentlessly and got his first goal of the season against Ehime. The second player is Luan and I think he will also play a big role throughout the season. He accumulated six goals and three assists last year while only playing 1084 minutes. That means he contributed a goal or assist every 120 minutes of playing time. In my Season Preview I mentioned him as candidate for team MVP and I think his ambition needs to be a candidate for league MVP.
Q. For some unknown reason V-Varen Nagasaki always seem to be a team that FC Ryukyu play well against. We’ve traded 3-2 home wins in 2019, then drew during the monsoon last year, and then ended with the 1-0 win in Nagasaki that dented your promotion hopes last year. In our case, we sometimes (on rare occasion) play up to our competition, but mostly we play down to lower competition. What do you think is the case when Nagasaki face Ryukyu?
A. What I noticed is that six of the seven goals FC Ryukyu scored against us in the past two seasons came in the 69th minute or later. V-Varen are not a team that concedes particularly many goals late in games, but even when we were up 3:0 in the first meeting of 2019, you guys still scored two beautiful goals in the final ten minutes and gave us quite a scare. Last season, when many teams just sat back against V-Varen and waited for counter attacks, FC Ryukyu were willing to take a risk and attack and they rewarded themselves with four points. So, I think that FCR just have a stubbornness and mental strength to them, which has helped them to surprise V-Varen and capitalize on their mistakes in the past four meetings between the two.
Q. What are your thoughts/predictions for this week’s game?
A. Before I started working on this preview, my prediction was a 1:0 win to Nagasaki, but because of what I just wrote in my reply to the previous question, I feel like we are going to need a two-goal lead in order to finally get an away win against you and that will be difficult. I expect both teams to have 15-20 strong minutes in each half and it is probably going to end in a 1-1 draw.
It was great to reconnect Daniel, I wish the best for you and your team this year -just not this week- and look forward to seeing Nagasaki in the thick of the promotion race. Cheers!
Thank you, too, Geoff. I really enjoyed answering your questions and am looking forward to a decent game. Good luck to you guys for the rest of the season!
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. V-Varen is extremely good at sucking defenders deep into their own box before finding an outlet pass to an unmarked player near the top. They also seem to have guys flying into the box from all directions when they are in possession at the opponent’s end. The outcome of this game hinges on our 2 central midfielders’ ability to track, and close down, those runs and crosses.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. Echoing what Daniel said about Nagasaki’s defense limiting their opponent’s scoring chances, Ryukyu will need to be lethal from limited chances. Ryukyu are not even close to maintaining the same levels of possession they enjoyed last year so quick counters, and finishing those counters, will be key. Hopefully all of those near misses the past few weeks will start to fall for Ryukyu.
5.Prediction
This is definitely a statement game for FC Ryukyu as well as a chance for V-Varen Nagasaki to right the ship. As Daniel mentioned, these two sides share a unique history especially when it comes to late goals scored by FC Ryukyu, but last week against Gunma was the first time all year that Ryukyu scored in the second half. Factoring in Daniel’s perspective for how Nagasaki are better defensively than last year, and limit scoring chances for their opponents, Ryukyu may have few scoring opportunities on Saturday. A 1-goal loss to Nagasaki would be considered respectable, any type of points earned by Ryukyu will fall into the green section of the Points over Expectation table I produce for each Match Report. I think Ryukyu put up a fight, but ultimately fall 2-1 to Nagasaki. Season Record 2-0-1.
6.Match Day 4 in J2
All times are Japan Standard Time
Another interesting round of fixtures with Niigata looking to extend their undefeated streak to 4 when they host Gunma, and then there are plenty of teams sitting just outside the top two who have a good shot at improving their position in the table based on their matchups this round.
Thank you to Johnny (gambaosakaenglish.blog) and Daniel for their contributions to the preview this week. Their input has been invaluable and if you are not already following these two, you need to be.
Pretender or Contender? That is what we want to know about Ryukyu. Time to go out there and make a statement.
Ryukyu were forced once more to play in some rather poor conditions, but it wasn’t rain that they were fighting this time, it was some strong wind. Both teams struggled with possession and chances yesterday as they tried to navigate the high winds from both ends of the pitch. However, it was Ryukyu who came out on top when they used the shifting winds to their advantage in the second half. Ryukyu have now opened the season with 3 wins in a row, and sit near the top of the J2 table for the first time since the start of 2019.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Highlights
2.Man of the Match
Takuma Abe FWD FC Ryukyu: Abe scored his second goal in as many games and was the catalyst behind the second Ryukyu goal on Sunday. Abe was quiet in the first half while the Ryukyu attack was struggling for possession but asserted himself on his goal when he out hustled the Gunma defender to get to the loose ball and struck the ball on a bounce with his left foot. It was a great effort to get into a position to score and provide the spark that led to the FC Ryukyu breakthrough. He almost added a second from what would have been a spectacular goal when he changed directions mid air to get to a header that clanked off the post, but luckily fell right to the streaking Akamine who slotted home FC Ryukyu’s second goal.
3. Review of the Keys to Victoryfor FC Ryukyu
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu had to battle some poor wind conditions early on and were unable to get anything going in the first half. However, they did finish strong with 2 second half goals, also the first time they’ve scored in the second half of any game this season, to see out the win.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. Nope, but that is OK. It was our talisman and one of our best, Abe, who propelled this side to a victory.
4.Talking Points from Match Day 3
1. The wind was a major factor yesterday. Neither team really knew how to play under those conditions, either playing into or against the wind, which severely impacted both sides ability to generate or sustain any possession and attacks. Ryukyu made the right choice to play “with” the wind in the second half, though according to Higuchi, Gunma made it quite difficult on Ryukyu with their pressing play as Ryukyu couldn’t utilize the long ball in the prevailing winds to break that press.
You also saw the hesitation on the part of the goal keepers when balls were sent into the box. They were unable to fully commit to balls in the air, and there were plenty of examples where the flight path of the ball changed direction at the last second. Gunma nearly scored when a shot, that may have been sent high and wide under normal conditions, ended up becoming a very dangerous cross that Taguchi was able to get to the back post to stop. Abe’s goal can also be attributed to the wind as the Gunma keeper hesitated to come out, got a slight touch to the ball, but all that did was drop the ball into a dangerous area for Abe to pounce on. Granted, the darting runs into the box by both Ikeda and Kiyoatake probably kept the keeper back slightly, as well as disrupted his movement when he did decide to come off his line.
It was one of those games where Ryukyu came out on top of the first half by not conceding a goal and then played well enough through the elements in the second half to grab the win.
2. A change to the lineup. Yu Tomidokoro made his debut at CM in place of Koki Kazama, but he was replaced at half time by Koki. Not sure what to make of the move, and it was a difficult opening half for Ryukyu so we couldn’t really see anything from Yu. Assuming that Higuchi is looking at things from the perspective of, “if isn’t broke, don’t fix it,” then we should not expect any real changes to the starting 11 or reserves on Saturday.
5. Prediction
I predicted a 2-1 win for Ryukyu, and it it could have been had Gunma not hit the post in the first half. Still, a win nonetheless. Season Record 2-0-1.
6.Match Day 3 in J2
Niigata and Ryukyu remain unbeaten and atop of the J2 table for another week. Iwata grabbed their first win of 2021, Omiya and Kyoto was called off after some heavy rains (rescheduled for the 24th of March), and there were some surprising results from the newly promoted sides as well as Ehime FC against V-Varen Nagasaki. I think most of us expected the Yamagata and Yamaga, Verdy and Zelvia, matches to end in draws.
Job done, 9 points from 9 and now it is time to turn our attention to V-Varen Nagasaki this week. The fast start by Ryukyu mean they enjoy a nice 7-9 point cushion over the bottom four sides in the league. But anything could happen over the course of the next few weeks to shrink that total. Still, it is better to be in this position with these points compared to some of our opponents at the bottom.
FC Ryukyu didn’t win their third game last season until Match Day 12, and they never had a winning streak greater than 2 games in a row that year. You would have to go back to the start of the 2019 campaign to find a winning streak of greater than 3 games, and we all remember how FC Ryukyu started out with 4 wins from 4, followed by 2 draws, which also provided a nice buffer from relegation that year. I think we can also recall how we couldn’t buy a win on the road until the final month and half of that season, as well as the mid-season collapse that seems to be coming a regular occasion for Ryukyu.
Right now, all of us Ryukyu fans need to be enjoying the moment for what it is, a string of great results based mainly on good defense, goal keeping, and a bit of luck. That is not meant to take anything away from what the side has achieved, but we are not even at the quarter mark of the season and shouldn’t be focusing on anything other than survival at this point. But man it has been great and I hope the streak can continue on Saturday as well as through the following weeks.
FC Ryukyu marches North for the first time this season where they will take on Thespakusatsu Gunma. Gunma are a team they traded 1-0 away wins with last season, and who finished just 1 point behind FC Ryukyu in the standings. In their first meeting since FC Ryukyu lifted the J3 trophy against Gunma in 2018, FC Ryukyu beat Gunma 1-0 on Match Day 12 with a very uninspiring performance. Gunma returned the favor on Match Day 26 with an equally uninspiring effort to beat FC Ryukyu 1-0 in Okinawa. Whereas FC Ryukyu enter the match riding a 2-game win streak, Gunma are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw on the road at SC Sagamihara. For Ryukyu, this is a very important match as the 3 points would push their point total to 9 right before a very tough stretch of games. For Gunma, their opening schedule of fixtures, and perceived potential points accumulated in those fixtures, is vital for their survival.
Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 2 Recap
Team Previews
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Slightly colder than what we’ve been experiencing down here in Okinawa.
FC Ryukyu fans will be allowed to attend the match, and the link below contains the necessary information as far as hanging banners and match watching etiquette.
Thespakusatsu Gunma: Just like FC Ryukyu, Gunma have a favorable schedule to open the 2021 season. But Gunma’s schedule is far more front loaded than Ryukyu’s. Gunma started with the newly promoted J3 teams, Akita and Sagamihara in consecutive weeks earning 4 points; take on FC Ryukyu this week; face current leaders Niigata the following week, and then play Kitakyushu. Gunma’s only ‘tough’ opponents over the next month include Niigata and Nagasaki, as they have Ehime, Renofa and Fagiano to round out the fixture list through April. But you could even extended their fortunes into May with some of their opponents current form. All told, this is a crucial part of Gunma’s season that could very well determine their fate by seasons end.
Gunma need to embark on a ‘smash and grab’ campaign these first 3 months of the season to ensure their survival, though at least at this point in the season based on results and performance of some teams, Gunma have one of the best opening and closing schedules of any team trying to stave off relegation. Despite the favorable scheduling, Gunma have been unable to take full advantage of the fixture list. They defeated Akita at home 2-1 to open 2021, but then dropped a vital 2 points against Sagamihara when they limped to a 0-0 draw this past weekend.
Gunma started off fast against Akita with an opening goal from a CK in the 4th minute but then allowed Akita to dictate much of the game before making it all square with an early contender for goal of the year from Akita. Unfortunately for Akita they let Gunma hang around until Gunma went ahead for good in the 83rd minute after a nice set of passes opened up Akita at the back. Sagamihara put up a fight in their game with Gunma, came close on a few occasions, but so did Gunma when they hit the framework on multiple occasions. Neither side could crack the back line and the game ended in a draw with Gunma coming out on the losing end of the points dropped. A scene we were all to familiar with here at Ryukyu last year.
FC Ryukyu: Dressing the same 18 players from the previous week, FC Ryukyu jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Renofa Yamaguchi before hanging on for a 2-1 win. There were some signs of life from the offense against Renofa compared to Match Day 1 against Jubilo where there was almost none, but we still need to see more from a team built on attacking football. Ryukyu enjoyed an uptick in possession last week, and it was good to see Abe get back on the scoresheet; Kiyotake and Koya becoming more involved in the attack; and seeing Keita Tanaka grab his second point – first goal – of the 2021 season. But there were plenty of missed chances, and close calls that prevented Ryukyu from pushing the score line even higher.
Ren Ikeda maintained his grip on the starting CAM role but we have to wonder when Kazaki Nakagawa will finally get a crack at the position. Ryukyu had acres of space to operate on the Renofa flanks, but lacked any serious thrust down the middle. I think this is where Nakagawa thrives, and is what we saw from Ryukyu last year when Koizumi was marshalling the attack. All we have seen to date from the club is highlights of Nakagawa looking fit in training videos, but he has yet to even dress in the reserves. I hope we didn’t acquire his services as a mere insurance policy in the event of injuries this year as he is to good of a player to be left off the squad.
Which brings us to the reserves that Higuchi chooses each match. Counting Abe, Ryukyu have dressed, and played, four forwards each week. And they all come on at roughly the same time, for the same exact players. We already know what Abe and Shinya Uehara bring to the attack as forwards, but we then ask Akamine and Shintaro to play out wide when they come on for Koya and Kiyotake. I have no idea what Ryukyu intend to do when the Thai and Vietnamese reinforcements arrive later this year as they will join fellow talented midfielders, Kazaki, Motegi, and Ramon, out in the cold.
The lone mid-field substitute utilized by Higuchi is Ichimaru who usually comes on late in games for either Uesato or Koki. This means that Yu Tomidokoro, and the single defensive player we dress, Makito Uehara, end up as unused subs. Perhaps there is some contractional obligations at work which could force FC Ryukyu to pay some players a higher wage based on minutes played, but I really have no clue.
The formula has worked twice so far so I wouldn’t expect any changes to lineup or reserves this week.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. There is no game to date that requires another fast start from FC Ryukyu. We cannot afford to let Gunma hang around in a close game as they can find ways to dig out results. So it is best to put this one away before things become too stressful near the end. But we are also playing on the road for the first time this year so anything could happen.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. It may not be the usual candidates who pull this one out for Ryukyu, so that means it may fall upon the shoulders of a non-prolific goal scorer. Koki banging in a few from set pieces, or Uesato, or even Ichimaru is a strong possibility. It could also come from set pieces by our defenders, either way I’ll take it. Someone needs to step up here because if they do, then we will start seeing the pieces of a complete team coming together, something we haven’t seen since 2018.
5.Prediction
This could be a potential trap game for FC Ryukyu as even though they look to be the better side, they have a tendency to play down to their opponent. FC Ryukyu improved their road win total from 2019 to 2020 (5 wins in 2019, 7 wins in 2020), but are a very streaky team when traveling. In 2019, they won their first road game but didn’t win on the road again until Match Day 35. In 2020, they needed 5 road games to achieve their first win. So if anything, this is the ideal first road test for FC Ryukyu. The away team has won 3 out of the last 4 matches, only 1 game has ever exceeded more than 2 goals scored, and the home team has been shutout on 3 occasions. It won’t be pretty, but I think FC Ryukyu can complete the trifecta with a 2-1 gritty win. Season Record 1-0-1.
No single fixture stands out this week with many teams still searching for answers, while others are looking to put some distance between themselves and their opponents at either end of the table. Unfortunately for any neutral fans, all the games kickoff at the exact same time on both days.
Well, here it is. A very important match for FC Ryukyu early on this season and one that we may look back come November as one that determined the fate of this club. Earning 9 points out of the gate is massive considering their upcoming fixtures. Aside from Ryukyu’s next 3 opponents – Nagasaki, JEF, and Omiya- Ryukyu then face Mito, Verdy, Zelvia and Kofu before finally getting to SC Sagamihara. We know Ryukyu have never earned a single point from either JEF or Kofu and were swept by Zelvia last season, meaning 3 points on Sunday will go a long way to future J2 football. Ryukyu showed signs of improvement in each of their last two games, can they continue that progress with a third win in a row over Gunma?
Another miserable day weather wise, but a successful one as far as FC Ryukyu are concerned. The rain was once again unrelenting, but FC Ryukyu came out on top in front of the 1,100 fans who braved the elements on Saturday. FC Ryukyu now sit on max points near the top of the table, but also 5 points clear of the drop zone. The win was also significant as it is a 6 point swing over one of the teams tipped for relegation.
FWD Takuma Abe FC Ryukyu: Abe accounted for nearly half of the Ryukyu shots yesterday and was involved in both of the goals. It was his shot that required the Renofa keeper to parry it out of the corner and drop it right at the feet of Tanaka.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Better Mid-Field Play: Likelihood 4. We certainly had more possession, which in turn meant they created more chances to score. Some of the players are still working out the kinks, but I think the side showed improvement from one game to the next.
2. Get Abe Firing: Likelihood 4. He was firing yesterday, accounting for one of the Ryukyu goals, and nearly bagged two more. He missed a wide open chance early in the second half, one he usually scores, and then smashed another off the post. It’s good that he was involved early and often as we need Abe firing on all cylinders in a few weeks.
4. Match Day 2 Talking Points
1. A tale of two halves. FC Ryukyu were the better side in the first half as they walked into halftime with a 2-0 lead. Renofa, were far better in the second half and were rewarded with the lone goal. Ryukyu couldn’t find the finishing touch in the later stages of the game, something that also occurred last week, but were able to hang on for the win. The game itself ended in a near 50/50 split as far as possession, chances created, and shots.
2. Kiyotake & Koya made an impact yesterday. Both Koya and Kiyotake picked out Abe amongst the sea of bodies inside the Renofa 18-yard box, which directly contributed to both of Ryukyu’s goals. Koya had a chance to add to his earlier assist when he was alone on the right side of the box, but the shot came from a tight angle and was saved by the keeper. The signs are encouraging, but I still feel they lack the thrust through the middle that a player like Nakagawa can provide.
3. Renofa’s goal was a case of Tanaka getting his feet crossed underneath him. You can see from the highlights that he was slightly unsure of where to go on the play. Either put in a challenge, or mark the run of another attacker. That momentary hesitation allowed the Renofa player to get in behind Tanaka, receive the through ball, then pick out a wide open Renofa player making the run-on goal leaving Taguchi no chance at getting to the shot.
4. The lineup remained unchanged. Ryukyu dressed the four forwards once more, and like last week, used the same four substitutes. I would expect more of the same against Gunma.
5. FC Ryukyu scored first which makes it 6 games in a row that they’ve scored first against Renofa. They also scored inside the first minute for the second straight week. The goal also marks the fourth occasion that FC Ryukyu have scored against Renofa inside the opening 15 minutes of any game.
5.Prediction
Tipped this one to end 3-1 in favor of FC Ryukyu so I’ll give myself credit for getting close to the mark. Season record 1-0-1.
6. Match Day 2 in J2
A very low scoring weekend as there were only 19 total goals scored this round. Albirex took the top slot with their win over Nagasaki, with Akita earning their first ever J2 victory. Jubilo responded from their loss to Ryukyu by suffering a heavy defeat at the hands of Zelvia. I think Giravanz committed another own-goal for the second game in a row, that made all the difference this past Saturday.
I spoke last week about wanting to track Ryukyu’s point total this year based on what I am calling “Points Over Expectation.” It is a completely subjective scaling system where I separate teams into two categories: Those that FC Ryukyu should beat, and those that they should not. The criteria includes, records against the opponent from the past two seasons, implied strength of the opponent (current position in the table and squad members) with home and away splits loosely factored in. The chart below will be included in each weekly Match Report for FC Ryukyu and has 3 categories.
1. Total points earned to date.
2. Points Over Expectation: This includes points earned from Wins and Draws against tougher opponents
3. Points Under Expectation: Tracks the points that were dropped due to Losses and Draws against perceived lesser opponents.
It is to early to get excited about promotion, but not to early to be concerned with relegation. You can say that Ryukyu are winning ugly, or that the team still has things to work out, but wins are wins, and oh so important at this part of the season.
While two wins from two is a great way to start the season, FC Ryukyu need to continue their fast start with a win over Thespakusatsu Gunma next round to put themselves in a great spot heading into a rough stretch of games featuring Nagasaki, Chiba and Omiya.
ryukyuarmy.com 