Intro
There are finally some good vibes surrounding this club and it is well deserved. FC Ryukyu sit atop the table as one of just two teams on six points having strung together back to back home wins for the first time in two seasons. But this is not the time to sit back and admire what they’ve accomplished as there is still plenty of work that needs to be done. Last week I wrote that Ryukyu had three early tests to open the season and now comes the biggest one. Granted, I thought the Iwate match may have been on equal footing as this match versus Imabari prior to the result last week, but the game this weekend is the first time this season that Ryukyu will play on the road against a strong team.
Team Previews
FC Imabari: For the Imabari preview this week we are joined by The Imabari Anchor Twitter account (@Imabari_Anchor). The Imabari Anchor account joined us this year and has been a great follow for all things about FC Imabari in English. I asked them if they could kindly provide a brief preview this week since the season is still relatively new and I don’t know much about the club. With that in mind, enjoy!
“Overall we have started the season with two fairly good efforts, but against two completely different type of teams. In the first round, Fukushima let us have a lot of the ball and we were able to punish them early on. We created many chances, but the finishes were simply too poor. In the 76th minute we did manage to score a goal, but over the course of the season not all opponents will be as kind as Fukushima. In other words, we must learn to take advantage of our chances.”
“In the second match, against Kagoshima, the conditions looked completely different (as expected). Kagoshima created many chances while also managing to effectively isolate our forwards. In the second half, Imabari eventually grew into the game and scored in the 73rd minute. The match ended 1-1 (after Imabari conceded an own goal in the 95th minute), but it was a fair result overall.”
“It is quite difficult to draw any definitive conclusions from these first two games but I think the key against Ryukyu will be to simply work the ball up to our forwards as often as possible. Both Marcus Índio and Kazaki Nakagawa are very good with their backs to goal, and with support from the midfield they can be deadly.”
Thanks for that great preview!
FC Ryukyu: Seeing how there isn’t much to draw on from just two games played this year, I thought I’d look at how FC Ryukyu has performed on the road during their time in the J-League. I also looked at the historical records for teams promoted from J3 the past four years in hopes of finding out what it will take for Ryukyu to pull themselves back into the J2 after just one season in J3.
Ryukyu fans know the team can really struggle at times while paying on the road. Ryukyu owns a historical road winning rate of 32% (52W-35D-76L) from the past nine seasons in the J.League, and despite owning one of the largest home undefeated streaks in J-League history (due in large part to their 2017-2019 seasons) they only fare marginally better at home (40%). Their highest ever away win total in any year is eight (8) which occurred in the 2018 and 2021 seasons. No coincidence that those years were Ryukyu’s best ever finishes in either the J3 or J2.
There is also no coincidence that during Ryukyu’s time in the J2 those teams that were promoted from J3 finished at, or very near the top, of the list for away victories in any given season. All four of the teams that won the J3 from 2019 to 2022 had the most away wins of any team in the league. Two of the runner-ups in those years finished second (Iwate 2021) and third (Fujieda 2022). The only real outliers were Sagamihara finishing 8th in 2020 and Gunma finishing 6th in 2019 which have been teams that were either relegated immediately following promotion or constantly flirting with the notion of relegation. It should come as no surprise to anyone that away form is one of the most important indicators for success, and longevity, for any team in any tier of the J-League.
I said at the start of the year that Ryukyu would likely need to win twenty-two (22) games this year to earn promotion outright, and that is right in line with historical win rates (55%-60%) for teams that were promoted from J3 the past four seasons. Two down and twenty to go and now knowing that Ryukyu will need to earn, or come very close, to double digit away wins to be in the discussion for promotion. That is what it is going to take. So, can FC Ryukyu do what they’ve never done before?
Round 3 in J2
(7) FC Imabari and (2) FC Ryukyu is probably the headline matchup this round with league leaders, (1) Gainare Tottori, looking to retain the top spot with their home game against (17) Ehime FC. Two other matches to keep an eye on are (3) Giravanz Kitakyushu traveling to (10) Kataller Toyama, and (14) FC Gifu hosting (6) Kagoshima United FC.
Conclusion
FC Ryukyu and FC Imabari have to yet to play against each other in the J-League but they have faced off before in the emperors cup. Both those games (2017 & 2018) were in Okinawa, both those games went to PKs, and both times Imabari came out as the winner. There was the ding-dong affair of 2017 in which ten (10) goals were scored from open play and another eight (8) during the PK portion. Then in 2018 the match had to go to extra time before PKs once more. Kazaki Nakagawa scored for Ryukyu in one of those matches but let’s hope he doesn’t add to his tally in the historical series between these two teams. Thanks again to @Imabari_Anchor for their contribution to the blog this week and good luck to to FC Imabari for the rest of the season. But for now, let’s go Ryukyu!
ryukyuarmy.com 