Intro
As the season starts to wind down the relegation battle is morphing into a three (3), maybe four (4), team race. FC Ryukyu currently sit level with Gunma on 27-points while trailing Iwate and Omiya by 3 and 4 points. This is yet another tough draw for Ryukyu against a side situated in, or near, the promotion playoff zone but more importantly, against a team that Ryukyu has never defeated during their time together in J2. Yamagata, who always seem to have one of those lengthy undefeated streaks each season, has rebounded nicely to win four (4) of their last five (5) games following some surprising losses.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
One of the better forecasts we’ve had around here in quite some time. Hope it holds true.
Click>>> Match Day 32 Information from FC Ryukyu
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: One thing is for damn sure and that is, this team under Nacho’s direction doesn’t quit. Of course you would prefer to see Ryukyu playing from a position of strength vice having to respond to early adversity and goal deficits, but, you take the good with the bad. FC Ryukyu have only suffered a single (1) single loss in their last seven (7) games bringing Nacho’s record to an even 3W-3D-3L in the nine (9) games he has managed for Ryukyu. He now has an even tougher task this week to defeat a Yamagata side while being shorthanded one of his best players.
The last time FC Ryukyu achieved any sort of positive result against Yamagata at home was back in 2019 when both sides drew 3-3 in which Ryukyu required two (2) late goals to level the match. The last time we took a point off of Yamagata was in 2021 when yet another Shinya Uehara goal late in the game earned Ryukyu a point. For the most part, Ryukyu seems to somehow come apart against Yamagata by conceding two (2) or more goals in the past six (6) games against Yamagata with four (4) of those games reaching three (3) and four (4) marks. If Ryukyu historically play Nagasaki strong each season, it is the complete opposite case for Yamagata.
If Ryukyu wish to garner any points from this match then they will have to come up with a different game plan that doesn’t include bombing in crosses to Sulley. In his absence it is likely we see Noda return to the starting lineup but I am not sure who will be in reserve at striker for Ryukyu. Hitomi may move back to the bench but that would mean starting one of either Tanaka or any injured player who hasn’t featured for Ryukyu in some time. If recent signing Kohei Kato is prepared to play a full 90 then we could see a return to the right side for Ren Ikeda. Conversely, Kelvin could start there. I think Nacho has plenty of options at his disposal, pending any new CV-19 cases, but we are not trying to cobble together a patch work lineup, but one that can compete, and defeat, Yamagata.
One area that needs addressing this week is the defense. Ryukyu have conceded three (3) Penalty Kicks in two (2) games. That shit needs to stop now! Makito’s may have been an example of a brain fart; Nakagawa’s as a but harsh on the part of the ref; but Okazaki’s foul late in the game is inexcusable. Sure, that foul probably started outside the box but it ended inside the box while nursing a crucial 1-goal lead. Tired legs, desire to show the manager you belong may have all contributed to that foul but the mental presence of knowing what is going on that late games was not a consideration. If you’re set on fouling the player, do it earlier. I guess the gamble this week is whether to roll the dice on Omori and Nakagawa or some combination of them and Okazaki.
We’ve seen Ryukyu earn points while playing with limited possession and passing the past seven (7) weeks so I am not sure that will somehow change this week. They’ve been getting better at controlling more of the game but that is probably a byproduct of being down multiple goals with the opposition ceding possession in favor of defending those leads. If Ryukyu are going to do it this week then they’ll need those horses that have the ability to defend for long stretches of time and then quickly strike on the counter attack with as few passes as possible.
For me that is the same set of players we saw last week with a few minor tweaks. Kelvin is going to be crucial in this game along side Abe. Kelvin has to be one of the major contributors to any Ryukyu breakout in attack and somehow, someway, we have to find Abe in space so he is not out there to just execute hold up play. Nakano will surely get his opportunities but we’ll need some clinical finishing, or at the very least, some dangerous shots that lead to rebounds with Ryukyu players waiting in the area. We cannot afford to have soft shots or ones that flash just wide that don’t provide a chance of scoring from spilled balls.
Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata sit just two (2) points outside of the promotion zone with a very favorable set of fixtures the next three (3) weeks. They will travel to bottom side Ryukyu this week, then onto (19) Omiya Ardija and then finally returning home to face (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka. If Yamagata is going to make a push back into the promotion zone it has to happen these next three weeks.
The last time these two teams met was Match Day 20 when Yamagata completely dismantled Ryukyu in a 4-0 home victory. However, since that Ryukyu win – which was just one (1) game removed from a ten (10) game unbeaten run for Montedio – Yamagata has suffered some losses to teams near the bottom of the table. In the ten (10) games after the half way point of the season, Yamagata has already matched their loss total, four (4), in just ten (10) games compared to the four (4) they lost in their opening twenty one (21) fixtures.
A couple of those losses were to Tochigi and Gunma in which Yamagata was shut out. The Gunma loss is Yamagata’s most recent loss in a stretch of five (5) games where they’ve gone 4W-0D-1L with only two (2) goals surrendered. After Yamagata lost at home to Kumamoto on Match Day 26, they rebounded nicely at Akita with a 2-0 win; fell victim to Gunma at home 0-1; and then reeled off three (3) straight wins over Zelvia, Yamaguchi and Kanazawa. Perhaps Yamagata has a bit of bad luck at dropping points in games where they are favored to go along with a bit of good luck at playing sides when they are dealing with multiple injuries/suspensions and are in bad form? Luckily for them they get a Ryukyu a side this week who will be without one of their top players, Sadam Sulley, who is currently serving a one (1) match suspension for his red card last week.
Round 32 in J2
Up Top: There are two pretty big matchups at the top of the table this week. First, (1) Yokohama FC, fresh off their first win in two (2) games, host (4) Fagiano Okayama who are undefeated in their last seven (7) games. Second, (2) Albirex Niigata welcome in the high flying road team of J2, (5) Roasso Kumamoto.
Promotion Playoff Zone: (3) Vegalta Sendai head to (21) Thespakusatsu Gunma who just lost this past Tuesday to Yokohama FC. You know how I want this match to turn out. (6) V-Varen Nagasaki are also on the road against struggling (17) Zweigen Kanazawa.
Down Below: (20) Iwate Grulla Morioka, winless in their last two games, travel to (9) Oita Trinita who themselves are on a nine (9) game undefeated streak. (19) Omiya Ardija, on a bit of a heater themselves having only lost once in their past six (6), host (7) FC Machida Zelvia who have somehow lost four (4) times since that 1-0 win over Ryukyu two months ago. Winless in their last seven (7) games and sliding closer to the drop zone, (18) Renofa Yamaguchi play at home to (13) FC Mito Hollyhock. Mito are undefeated in their last five (5) games but had two (2) games postponed due to CV-19 and weather and have only played four (4) games since July 10th.
This match will also be broadcast for free on the J-League International YouTube channel as the first of two free broadcasts this round. Click>>> Renofa Yamaguchi v FC Mito Hollyhock
The second free broadcast this week will feature (11) Tokyo Verdy vs (12) Ventforet Kofu in a mid-table clash on Sunday evening. Click>>> Tokyo Verdy v Ventforet Kofu
Conclusion
Everything is impossible until it isn’t. Ryukyu have never beaten Montedio Yamagata but this isn’t the same Ryukyu squad from seasons past, or, the one that was flattened 4-0 earlier this season. This Ryukyu squad has surprised us several times in recent weeks, why not one more? Come on boys!
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