Intro
Both sides enter Match Day 31 having lost the previous round. For Ryukyu, it snapped a five (5) game unbeaten run where it looked like they were getting closer to escaping the drop zone. For Nagasaki, it ended an impressive eleven (11) game unbeaten streak that saw them rocket up the table. These two sides have an identical Home and Home split when it comes to wins and losses as both have a singular victory while playing as the visitors. The lone draw between these two teams occurred in 2020 in what I think was an absolute deluge that day in Okinawa. Both teams are in a need of win; for Nagasaki it is to keep pace, possibly overtake, Fagiano in the promotion zone, with Ryukyu needing to inch closer to the teams situated 20th and 21st in the table. It should be a good one.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Some heavy rain and weather leading up to the game but according the forecast it will move on by kickoff. Seems Nagasaki is outside the projected path of a typhoon that will travel across the mainland of Japan this weekend.
Click>>> Match Day 31 Information from V-Varen Nagasaki
Team Previews
V-Varen Nagasaki: Nagasaki always seems to be one of those sides considered for promotion each year. At least during my time watching Ryukyu in the J2 and deservedly so. While there seems little doubt they will be involved in the promotion playoffs, it might be a stretch to envision them cracking into the automatic promotion zone this season, but the way in which Yokohama FC is playing these days you never know. Nagasaki has been near the top of the table the past two seasons and the schedule is set up very nicely for them to make another undefeated stretch run.
Nagasaki went 2W-2D-1L in their last five (5) games with the wins over Zelvia and Sendai (both 2-1 score lines) falling in between two (2) draws to Iwate and Niigata (both score lines 2-2). One thing that really impressed me was Nagasaki’s ability to get out of the gate fast and on the scoreboard. In the above mentioned games Edigar Junio was (is) on fire as he has scored five (5) goals in those matches, six (6) if you go back just one more game, bringing his season total to ten (10). That is a massive uptick in Edigar’s contributions to the side considering he had just four (4) goals by Match Day 24.
But here is something interesting; eight (8) of Edigar’s ten (10) goals this season have occurred in the first half of matches! Four of his goals these past five (5) games happened at the 10′, 10′, 11′, and 14′ minute marks of the game. Somebody from Ryukyu better keep an eye on this guy. But that speaks to something I thought about this Nagasaki side all season. Starts fast, fades a little as the game wears on?
In every season I’ll watch about ten (10) highlights for each of the teams Ryukyu faces which represents less than a quarter of the season for any club. That means I cannot be 100% accurate on my assessment of Nagasaki, or anyone this season, as I am just getting snapshots of a team at any given moment. It could also be part of the Nagasaki game plan to take the lead and force their opponents into opening up and pressing the envelope to allow Nagasaki the ability to exploit any mishaps on the part of their opponents. Safe to say that eleven (11) game unbeaten run speaks to that notion.
Compounding the problem of whether or not we could label Nagasaki as fast starters who fade in games was the way in which they earned their points the past five (5) games. In their two (2) draws with Iwate and Niigata; Nagasaki either surrendered the lead or regained it later in the match. There was nothing but consolation goals for Zelvia and Sendai in their games, though Zelvia did make a go of it at then end. And it seems the only solution to getting after Nagasaki is preventing them from scoring early, and then grabbing a lead like Verdy did last week. Though the Verdy goal looked more like a rugby scrum that led to an outlet pass that somehow made its way back into the box for a headed goal.
I usually take the opportunity when Ryukyu play Nagasaki to reach out to @NagaSapo_EN to get his input as he offers up such a better preview than any outsider could. But things have been to busy for me lately so please head over to his Twitter account to see the goings on with Nagasaki these days. Nagasaki are one of those teams where there really isn’t anything there that would make you want to root against them. I can’t speak for any of their rivals and such but I would enjoy watching Nagasaki make their way through the playoffs and over whoever the J1 team will be at the end of the year. Good luck this year Nagasaki, just not this week!
FC Ryukyu: I hope the result last week was nothing more than a slight slip up for a side that was starting to round into form. The lopsided score line doesn’t really capture all that took place in that match as there were some good, and bad, takeaways from last week. First, you like to see the fight the team put up after falling behind 3-0. Two quick PKs created that hole but when Ryukyu needed to kick it into gear, they did. We must see more of this on a consistent basis as we have the players in attack that can finish off attacks so long as the service is provided. Up until a few weeks ago Ryukyu struggled mightily to reach the two (2) goal mark. They have now hit that plateau in consecutive weeks which is a first for this season.
Now for the bad. The same Ryukyu defense that only allowed two (2) goals in their prior five (5) matches completely fell apart in Kofu. There were mental mistakes abound and Kofu was finding the time and space to exploit the gaps in our defense. Granted, Ryukyu were dealing with several CV-19 cases within the squad which made for yet another depleted roster last Saturday. Looking at the FC Ryukyu Instagram this week we see that some of those players have since returned to training which will be key heading into this matchup with Nagasaki. Included in that was a late addition to the squad in the form of Kohei Kato, a defensive midfielder and former national team player with quite CV when it comes to football clubs. Wonder whose days are numbered in the central mid-field? Ikeda or Takezawa?
Seeing how Ryukyu has the finishing quality up top in Abe and Sulley, we need to start picking these players out more frequently. I am not sure how Nacho will address the early substitution of Makito last week as that can be both a confidence deflating and motivational move if taken in the wrong or right context. Keita Tanaka made his first appearance in two games when he came on for Makito in the first half and I would like to see him start. Tanaka isn’t in the same form he was last season as he only has two (2) assists this year, but we all know what he can provide to our strikers and we need him to get back to that form quickly.
Another question will be whether or not Kelvin makes a return to the starting lineup or comes off the bench this week? Kelvin can be electric on the ball at times but it is a matter of how long he can last out there. We’ve seen a couple of our recent signings wear down after 60′ minutes or so which is probably more to do with long layoffs between signing with Ryukyu and playing their last match. But we need these players out there to give Ryukyu the best shot at winning.
As noted in the Nagasaki team preview and Keys to Victory below, Nagasaki can start very fast and taper off later in games. Which means Nacho may have a strategy for how and when to deploy certain players in the lineup this week. Does he try and survive the first half and then bring on Kelvin to give him enough time to get into the match? Or does he go for broke right away? Unfortunately we are still one (1) week away from seeing the return of Kiyotake as having him and Kelvin split time in games, until Kiyotake is back up to fitness, would be a hell of a combination in our attack. FYI, Yuki Kusano is set to return from injury, or at least according to the timeline from the press release on his injury, this week. Whether or not he is ready to go is a whole other question.
While we await the returns of both Kiyotake and Kusano Ryukyu will rely heavily upon two players who are in good form at the moment. Katsuya Nakano and Sadam Sulley have combined for three (3) goals and two (2) assists the past two (2) weeks. Sulley has really adjusted quickly to life in J2 and pending how strong he finishes this season, is probably playing his way into a contract with a larger club. Nakano is the only Ryukyu player to reach double digit points (11) this season which will make for a ‘good problem’ for Nacho when setting the lineup each week upon the returns of Kiyotake and Kusano.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Play hard to the whistle. Likelihood 4. There is some fight in this FC Ryukyu squad these days so I truly believe they will be involved until the end. Do not worry if Nagasaki grab the early lead, but do not breakdown like we did at Kofu last week, and continue to press Nagasaki as the match wears on. We’ve seen Nagasaki provide some goal scoring chances late in games to many teams the past five (5) weeks so why should Ryukyu be any different? There is no secret to beating, or drawing, with Nagasaki. Just put shots on net. You know, “You want bread? Go to the store. You want goals? Go to the front of the net!” That’s for you brother.
Round 31 in J2
Up Top: Good god. Please tell me (1) Yokohama FC will not make it three (3) consecutive losses to a team situated near, or in, the relegation zone this week when they host (21) Thespakusatsu Gunma? I am not sure I can stand to watch another one of these sides take maximum points of the league leaders. (2) Albirex Niigata are in search of their first win in three (3) matches on the road at (15) Tochigi SC following back-to-back 2-2 draws.
Promotion Playoff Zone: (3) Vegalta Sendai welcome in (20) Omiya Ardija who are fresh off their feisty win against YFC last week. (4) Fagiano Okayama, in yet another match this round featuring a top side squaring off against a cellar dweller, host (18) Renofa Yamaguchi. (6) Roasso Kumamoto are looking to make it two (2) wins in a row while traveling to (13) Ventforet Kofu who shipped five (5) goals past Ryukyu last week.
Down Below: (19) Iwate Grulla Morioka finally get a reprieve this week after playing their last five (5) matches against teams situated at the top of the table. I am hoping that (17) Blaublitz Akita can keep that fine road form that has seen them draw, and win, their last two (2) road games, while not allowing a single goal when they travel to Iwate. In fact, I am hoping that all the top teams, except Nagasaki of course, can do the job this week in the hopes that Ryukyu squeezes out a result that sees them earn points.
J.League International Broadcasts for Round 31: The first of two broadcasts this week will feature (11) Tokyo Verdy traveling to (12) FC Mito Hollyhock in a titanic mid-table clash on Saturday. Though I’d trade places with either team in a heartbeat right now. Click>>> FC Mito Hollyhock v Tokyo Verdy
The second broadcast on Sunday will have (14) Tokushima Vortis playing at home – angling for the record amount of draws in a single J2 season – against (9) Oita Trinita. Click>>> Tokushima Vortis v Oita Trinita
Conclusion
It is really starting to come down to the wire and every little bit of points will help. It is not out of the realm of possibilities for Ryukyu to earn points on Saturday as Nagasaki are one of those teams, maybe the only team in J2, that Ryukyu seems to play tough every game. The last time these two teams played Nagasaki got the better of Ryukyu with 92′ minute header. That was just two months ago and perhaps it is Ryukyu’s turn to return the favor this week. Let’s go boys!
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