Intro
I want to take a deeper look at the teams possibly facing relegation since we are nearly 2/3 of the way through the 2022 season, points are at a premium, and Ryukyu is entrenched at the bottom of the table. I am by no means a statistician so there could be some flawed math with my approach but this is just a thought experiment designed to see which of the five teams near the drop zone have the toughest, or easiest, remaining schedules as well as what trends we can glean from past results that might predict future performance.
I focused on the five (5) teams at the bottom of the table that are separated by eight (8) points. Granted, the fortunes for any of these teams could change where they to move away from the drop zone, the gap between the relegation zone and safety increases that isolates just a couple of teams, or new teams drop down into this zone.
Current Teams Possibly Facing Relegation
Methods
Winning %: For this category I assigned a value of 1 point for each win a team earned and 0.5 point for each draw. I then divided that number by the total number of games played. For example: Niigata has 16 wins (16) and 6 draws (3) for a total of 19 points, divided by 27 games, to equal a 0.70 winning percentage. I then added the winning percentages of the remaining teams for each of the five teams above and then divided by 15 to reach the average winning percentage for their opponents. Winning percentage, sometimes considered as strength-of-schedule, may not be a particular predictive stat but it does at least give us an idea of what these teams are facing to close out 2022.
Overall Weighted Strength of Opponent: I assigned a numerical value of 22-1 based on current standings in the table. I started with the highest value (22) for the top team, Albirex Niigata, and worked my way down to the lowest team, FC Ryukyu, who were given a value of 1. I then added all the weighted values for each of the opponents for the five teams and divided by 15 (games remaining) to reach this number. I included the total value for each teams opponents in parentheses to the right of the average weighted strength.
Weighted Strength of Opponent Based on Home/Away Games: I created a table where I assigned an extra numerical value for each teams matchups based on their opponents standing in the table and whether the game was going to be played at home or on the road. I did this in order to account for the perceived difficulty in the opponent, location of the match, and to some degree, to incorporate the idea of home field advantage. I then added these totals and divided by the remaining home/away games for each team to reach an average weighted strength of their opponent for the home and away games. Totals for each team are included in parentheses next to the average number. See the chart below.
Average Home/Away Goals Scored/Conceded by Opponent: I divided the number of goals scored, and conceded, for each of the five teams remaining opponents based on the amount of previously played home/away games. I then added the averages for each team, separated by fixture location, and then divided that number by the remaining amount of home, or away, games for each of the five teams to reach this number.
Differences: I took each of the five teams average home and away goals scored and conceded, and subtracted it from the average home, and away goals scored, and conceded, of their opponents to reach this number.
Variables Not Accounted for: I did not look into any teams current injury situation, nor account for players returning to health or future signings. I also didn’t account for things like weather, travel distance, days between matches, kickoff times or recent trends (i.e. last five matches played). I will likely look at recent trends from a five (5) and or ten (10) game snapshot if a second installment of this entry is warranted.
Findings
Right away we can see that it is hard to compare all five teams since FC Ryukyu has two more Away games, and two less Home games, compared to the other four clubs in the table. This throws off the average strength of opponent, both home and away, and the average goals scored/conceded in all categories since they have played more home games and less away games than the others. Perhaps the next time I will look at a different sample size.
I may have also placed to much extra value on the location of the fixture by not taking into account both their opponents records for home and away fixtures, as well as that of the five teams. For instance, it is hard to assume FC Ryukyu has a markedly strong home field advantage over their opponents considering their current home record of 1W7D7L.
Building the table was useful in that it allowed me to see the differences in performance for both home and away games for the teams involved, but more importantly, it showed me some spots in the remaining fixtures where teams will need to exploit their opponents to remove themselves from the drop zone equation. With that, I’ll present some of my thoughts on the findings for each of the five teams below the fixture list table.
(18) Blaublitz Akita: Akita face the lowest combined winning percentage of the five teams I looked at with a favorable run of fixtures over their next seven (7) matches. Maybe. Akita struggles for away goals which could present a challenge during the fixtures at Omiya, Iwate and FC Ryukyu as they all have a stronger goals scored at home average than Akita’s current away goal ratio. But, Akita has conceded far less on the road than these opponents have conceded at home.
While I could easily see Akita drawing all seven of these games, it is likely they will win, and lose, some of those games. It is vital for Akita to take as many points as they can during these next seven games in order to push themselves far out from the dropping pack. Something I think they will do. The Gunma (H) and Roasso (A) games near the end of the year line up well on paper for Akita which might be their last gasp at avoiding relegation before a run of JEF (H), Okayama (A), and Sendai (H) to close out the season.
(19) Iwate Grulla Morioka: Iwate face teams who averaged the second highest win percentage in this table and may have the toughest overall remaining schedule of all the teams I looked at. Compounding these problems is the fact that Iwate also struggle for goals both at home and on the road. Zelvia (H), Yokohama FC (A), Okayama (H) are up next and are all teams who out pace Iwate in the goals scored/conceded categories. Though Zelvia and Okayama do not score as many goals on the road as one would expect from teams inside or near the promotion zone.
Akita (H) is Iwate’s most favorable fixture during their next seven games before being dropped right back into the meat grinder with Oita (A), Niigata (A), and Yamagata (A). I would expect Iwate to hang near the bottom of the table for the remainder of the season which makes the games at Renofa (A) and what could be the relegation decider for several teams, Gunma (H) match day 41, extremely important for Iwate.
(20) Omiya Ardija: Omiya has the toughest opponent winning percentage ahead of them but they are the only team with a positive, or neutral, goals scored/conceded ratio against compared to their opponents in the table above. Omiya start right away with Akita (H) which could lead to some points before Mito (A), Yokohama FC (H), Sendai (A), Zelvia (H), and Yamagata (H). Any points accumulated in those games would go a long way to turning this into a two horse relegation race between some of the other teams.
From there Omiya will experience a bit of an ‘every other’ fixture schedule that fluctuates between tough, and on paper, favorable match ups. Omiya do have the luxury of playing Renofa (H) and Gunma (A) near the end of the season. But if they leave it late, they will face Vortis (A) and Niigata (H) to end the campaign. With that in mind one could see Omiya hanging around near the bottom until the final weeks of the season.
(21) Thespakusatsu Gunma: Gunma have the second lowest opponent winning percentage remaining in addition to having one of the easiest run of fixtures to end the 2022 campaign. But like Iwate and Akita, Gunma are struggling for goals. Seems this is a recurring theme among all the teams in question here. One saving grace for Gunma is despite them possibly taking some heavy losses in the near term, so will some of the teams near them in the table. If they don’t drop too far back they will end the season with FC Ryukyu (H), Akita (A), Renofa (H), Omiya (H), Kumamoto (A), and Iwate (H).
Kumamoto is also slightly favorable based on their low goals scored at home average and then there are the many 6-pointers on tap for Gunma that at least provides the prospect of getting out of the relegation zone. If they are depending on salvation with a win/draw at Mito to end the year they could be severely disappointed. Like, Iwate, Omiya, and FC Ryukyu, expect Gunma to hang near the bottom barring some massive unexpected point gains.
(22) FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu find themselves sort of in the middle of the stat categories in the table above. But they are at a major disadvantage having to play nine (9) of their final fifteen (15) games on the road. Though one could argue they’ve done far better on the road this season as that is where they’ve earned 3/4 of their total wins, but it is an even split of points for both home and away this year for Ryukyu. There really isn’t a lengthy ‘sweet spot’ in the remaining fixtures for Ryukyu to exploit like the other teams we looked at. The best looking set of fixtures occurs with the match days 33 and 34, and then between match days 36 to 38.
Of their six (6) remaining home fixtures there are only two teams that Ryukyu face with a losing record on the road. One may think the Roasso game looks favorable at first glance but Kumamoto are some serious road warriors this season with eight (8) wins, six (6) draws, a single (1) loss with a ridiculous amount of goals scored. What Roasso has done on the road is something FC Ryukyu must mirror if they wish to survive 2022 in the J2.
But that won’t be easy considering three (3) of their nine (9) away fixtures are in locations where Ryukyu has never won (Vortis, Kofu and Niigata). They also need points at places where they own just a single win across three seasons in the J2 (Nagasaki, Mito and JEF). That means they cannot afford to drop points at Gunma, Tochigi and Kanazawa. One thing is for certain, FC Ryukyu need goals and need them fast. If they don’t get those goals that can lead to wins the end will come quicker than expected.
Conclusion
Maybe I didn’t get the answers I initially set out to find. But I did develop a much richer understanding of the sides facing relegation. Obviously this type of article could be much better if we had the input from fans from each of the teams that could speak to the similar woes Ryukyu is currently experiencing as I am only looking at the numbers for the other teams. In any case, FC Ryukyu has it all to do. I am hoping they can pull off a miracle.
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