(22) FC Ryukyu vs (6) FC Machida Zelvia #FC琉球

Intro

Let’s not kid ourselves. A lot of things need to break right for FC Ryukyu to avoid the drop. We cannot reasonably expect teams around Ryukyu in the standings to lose every week, suffer the same set of bad luck, or accrue the same set of injuries since Ryukyu have unfortunately left it super late to save the season. Not only are Ryukyu at the foot of the table following three (3) consecutive losses, they are also seven (7) points behind Iwate and Omiya in the relegation race. The tall task will fall upon newly appointed manager Nacho Fernandez and Ryukyu need to start netting positive results almost immediately. That will be no easy ask as Machida Zelvia have historically had the better of Ryukyu and who, like everyone in J2 these days, is eyeing this matchup as a get right game to gain some valuable points.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Doesn’t it just figure that Okinawa finally comes out of rainy season, has enjoyed nice weather for the past seven days, and now on game day, splat!

Click>>> Match Day 23 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu were not able to enjoy any “new boy bounce” following the departure of Kina after the Yamagata match and are now winless in their last six (6) games with four (4) defeats. Perhaps due to the fact that Head Coach Kuranuki had already had his shot at such a bounce earlier in the season, but FC Ryukyu did name a new manager in the time between blog entries. Nacho Fernandez will oversee what will hopefully be a restoration of the club and push out of the relegation zone.

There are so many problems that require fixing at Ryukyu it must be a difficult decision for where to start for their new manager. Tactics, Lineup Selection, defending, scoring, motivation, and confidence are equally important, but so too is mental focus. Ryukyu dropped five (5) points in three (3) out of their last four (4) matches due to goals conceded in extra time. Vortis were able to equalize late with both Nagasaki and Okayama earning victories in the waning seconds of the game. Ryukyu have now conceded ten (10) extra time (both first and second half) goals inside of twenty two (22) games. That has to stop right now to avoid falling even farther behind teams just above us in the table.

Nacho has to instill a system that encourages players into taking more shots while also preventing the breakdown of defending at the back. All the while with both a depleted attacking and defending corps. We know Kusano is out until at least September and hopefully recently signed Kelvin can regain some of the form he displayed throughout his career with each match he plays. Of course, don’t hold your breath on any news of Takuma Abe returning to aide in the attack, though his return would be a massive boost to the side that is still three weeks out from seeking reinforcements in the summer transfer window.

Then there is the issue Ryukyu face in defending, and some could argue, goalkeeping. Ryukyu really don’t have the luxury of having their young defenders, Omori and Nakagawa, grow into the position as that time passed long ago. What they need is consistent solid performances while Okazaki remains out injured. Then there was the curious decision to start Makito Uehara over Keita Tanaka at right back last match. Maybe the decision was based on an injury that Tanaka picked up, and though I believe Makito can develop into a fine player one day, I will once again state that it is probably as a central defensive midfielder, and not a central defender/fullback.

Taguchi isn’t enjoying nearly the success he had last season, though he does flash at times and it probably is not all his fault with what is in front of him, but nevertheless, he has surrendered thirty eight (38) goals in twenty one (21) games. Hopefully a switch at manager may result in shaking up the lineup that includes another start for Dany Carvajal. Ryukyu have a lot of work ahead of them to find suitable ‘central’ defenders and forwards in the upcoming transfer window but must now focus on accumulating some points, however miniscule they maybe, in the near term.

FC Machida Zelvia: You know what you are going to get when facing Zelvia. A team loaded with attacking talent, but with plenty of questions about their defending. Zelvia also seem to be more of a ‘home’ team than one that does well on the road. Seven (7) of their nine (9) wins have come at home this season with zero (0) road wins in their last seven (7) away games.

Watching their past five games the home/road split is really evident. Losses to Tochigi SC and Oita on the road with wins at home over Akita and Kanazawa, with a draw against Kumamoto mixed in. Though Zelvia’s road form offers the slightest glimmers of hope for Ryukyu this week, let’s not forget that Zelvia own Ryukyu in the series with eight (8) wins and only a single (1) loss dating back to their time in the J3. Which coincidentally was the last time FC Ryukyu defeated Zelvia in any match (2014).

In the first meeting between these two sides Ryukyu looked good by holding Zelvia to a 0-0 draw before embarking down their current path. Granted, Zelvia did not have Dudu or Vinicius in the lineup for the opening match of the season so it must be taken with a grain of salt. Most Ryukyu fans pointed to the strong performances from young CBs Nakagawa and Omori in limiting Zelvia’s opportunities as well as shutting down the veteran striker Chong Tese. Ryukyu will need another such performance out of their defense this week if they wish to leave the match with any points.

~~Keys to Victory~~ Keys to Nicking a Point for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Score early. Likelihood 2. The second part of this would be to frustrate Zelvia by clogging their shooting lanes with the third, and most important, being the ability to finish the match without surrendering any late goals. The last being an almost impossible ask these days as indicated by Ryukyu’s poor record for conceding goals after the 75th minute mark games in addition to the amount of extra time goals they’ve hemorrhaged. But in the Zelvia games I watched, when Zelvia played on the road and conceded early, they seemed extremely frustrated at times when trying to score and were thus unable to recover.

2. Pressure the Zelvia back line into making mistakes. Likelihood 2. This largely depends on who is in the attacking role for Ryukyu this week as this game would have been perfect for a player of Kusano’s quality. Zelvia had several mistakes in defending, and playing out from the back, in their last five games which means there should be opportunities for Ryukyu in both the turnover category and to find space in between Zelvia defenders. That is, if Ryukyu can press, find space, find the key last passes and get quality shots on net.

Round 23 in J2

Headlining this weeks fixtures is the top of the table clash between (2) Yokohama FC and (1) Albirex Niigata. Kind of depressed this game is on the same day as the Ryukyu match as I would definitely want to tune into this one. But luckily the J-League has decided to broadcast this match to the world on the J-League International YouTube Channel and the link can be found under this paragraph. Right behind this tasty draw is the match featuring (3) Vegalta Sendai at home to (7) Montedio Yamagata who are both coming of losses and attempting to stay squarely in the promotion zone.

Click>>> J-League Int’l YouTube Channel: Yokohama FC vs Albirex Niigata

Depending on the outcomes for both the Ryukyu match and (19) Tochigi SC versus (21) Iwate Grulla Morioka game, Ryukyu could find themselves in an even deeper hole than before this round kicked off. Keeping one eye on those teams situated at the bottom of the table also sees a resurgent (20) Omiya Ardija, who are on a nice run of win one/draw one/lose one, hosting (14) Zweigen Kanazawa who have suffered two (2) defeats in their last three (3) games. The second free J-League International YouTube broadcast, and what is likely to be a staple the remainder of the year, features (8) JEF United Chiba at home to (11) Tokyo Verdy. Link is below.

Click>>> J-League Int’l YouTube Channel: JEF UTD Chiba vs Tokyo Verdy

Conclusion

So you have FC Ryukyu with only one (1) home win to date facing a Zelvia side that struggles for results on the road (two wins on the road all season). I think Zelvia is having the type of season that Ryukyu initially hoped for this year; overpowering teams in the attack, while trying to make up for the void in defense. As we’ve seen, it can get you places, but it isn’t enough to push teams over the line. Zelvia definitely have more quality in the attack than Ryukyu these days but I don’t feel these teams are separated by much. Sure, Ryukyu have conceded 20 more goals than Zelvia this season, but Ryukyu have also dealt with a rash of injuries to key players with Zelvia remaining largely unscathed. Would it be so hard to believe these teams are, or could be, two evenly matched sides on Sunday? Consecutive 0-0 score lines their past two meetings would at least indicate as much.

(22) FC Ryukyu vs (10) V-Varen Nagasaki #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu have reached the halfway point of the 2022 season and will continue on without their manager, Tetsuhiro Kina, who was relieved of his duties on Monday June 6th. Head Coach, Kazuki Kuranuki, who briefly oversaw a slight bump in performance for the club when Kina was sidelined with CV-19, will take over as interim manager until a replacement can be found. The move away from Kina was a long time coming for some Ryukyu fans and now we have to ask the question, is there enough matches remaining this season for Ryukyu to turn things around?

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Rainy season will not die off so easily. Goodness me this looks awful.

Click>>>>Match Day 21 Information from FC Ryukyu

Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: Relieving the manager, which was necessary, is one thing. Accumulating points during a tough stretch of matches while being severely depleted due to key injuries is another. Ryukyu look primed to have another stretch of four (4), or more, games where they concede at least three (3) goals in consecutive matches. The last time that happened was between match days 6-9 and there are some familiar opponents over the next four (4) fixtures that caused that severe damage to FC Ryukyu.

Perhaps the best tactic Ryukyu can deploy during these times is to park the bus and hope to hit teams on the counter attack. Owning loads of possession has gotten us nowhere, and nowhere fast, and when turnovers/counter attacks occur – which they always will – our defending has been porous. You’ve all seen the stats on how effective teams have been against Ryukyu on limited opportunities.

So why subject a back line, one that is reeling at the moment, to more of the same? Simply offer more coverage, clog the attacking area, and block/clear the shots from danger. And we need to stop the hemorrhaging of goals on set pieces. There is no shame in this tactic if it can net us any positive results especially when we are missing our top scorer while struggling mightily to break down other teams.

Every team playing Ryukyu in the near term will size up their matchup with Ryukyu as a must win or get right fixture. Nagasaki have failed to defeat Ryukyu in any of the three (3) games they’ve played in Okinawa. In fact, in four (4) out of the six (6) total matches played between these sides a team has reached the three (3) goal mark. Funny that each side has scored three goals at home against the other (2019 & 2021) with the 2020 fixtures standing out as the outliers in which those games were low scoring affairs.

V-Varen Nagasaki: Like Ryukyu, Nagasaki started the season slowly, but unlike Ryukyu, they had a bit of a revival by going undefeated in five (5) games. V-Varen Nagasaki are always loaded with talent but haven’t quite finished the job to get promoted to J1. They came oh so close a few seasons ago and a lot of J-League analysts tipped them for promotion in 2021 but it seems the emotional toll of just missing out on promotion really weighed heavily upon the club last season.

Nagasaki now find themselves in a similar pattern that took Ryukyu down last year where they win one, draw one, lose one. Granted, a preponderance of Nagasaki losses come at the hands of teams currently at the top of the table but the dropped points to Omiya, Chiba, Vortis and Verdy have set Nagasaki back a bit this season. Still, Nagasaki sit just one point off the promotion playoff bracket and they need to start taking maximum points from the sides below them, as well as around them, in the standings if they wish to get up, and stay up, near the top of the table.

Despite having a nearly identical goals scored to goals conceded tally, Nagasaki has plenty of attacking talent to overpower teams who struggle to score. Cristiano continues to display a high work rate resulting in five (5) goals scored with four (4) assists that has made him a fan favorite among the J-League. Not far behind Cristiano is Edgar Junio who sits on three (3) goals and two (2) assists. Nagasaki also do much better on the road compared to playing at home with five (5) wins, three (3) of which are in a row heading into this game with Ryukyu.

I didn’t have a chance this week to reach out to @Daniel_VVN for his thoughts on this match but he did mention that Nagasaki are a bit vulnerable when it comes to defending set pieces. Luckily for him, and Nagasaki, Ryukyu are not the greatest at creating or scoring on these types of chances. For more on Nagasaki check out Daniel’s Twitter feed and blog over at @NagaSapo_EN.

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Defend as if your life depended on it. Likelihood 2. Ryukyu cannot afford another repeat performance like last week at Montedio Yamagata and that starts with preventing teams from scoring in such quick succession. There has been way too many games this season where Ryukyu’s opponents score in bunches, usually to the tune of three (3) goals in under fifteen (15) total minutes of play. We can only hope the defensive woes were addressed during training this week.

~~Kinain’ Ya Around~~

The release of Kina officially brings this section to a close but that doesn’t mean I won’t incorporate some of the intent contained throughout this section in future FC Ryukyu team previews. To state the obvious, this is the worst start to any season for FC Ryukyu since joining the J2. Regardless of the outcome on Saturday Ryukyu will finish with the least amount points, wins, goals scored, while conceding the most ever goals and losses at the halfway point of any season. The writing really has been on the wall for sometime if we look at Kina’s career stats while in charge of FC Ryukyu. Kina amassed five (5) wins, nine (9) draws, and eleven (11) losses in twenty five (25) games as manager for Ryukyu in J2 league matches. That was good for a 20% win rate in all games while earning 32% of the total points available.

A further breakdown of the scoring in those matches tell us that: Ryukyu have been shutout six (6) times, scored a single goal ten (10) times, scored twice six (6) times, and only reached the three-goal plateau, though never exceeding more than three goals, just three (3) times. Conversely, Ryukyu have only shutout their opponents three (3) times, conceded a single goal just eight (8) times, conceded twice in games eight (8) times, allowed three goals three (3) times and have been hit for four (4), or more, goals three (3) times. Was the problem the system, the players or the management? I guess we’ll find out shortly.

Round 21 in J2

No fixture jumps out to me so you’d be better off listening to the @JTalkET podcast to find out which games look tasty this week.

We are treated to two free broadcasts this week on the J.League International YouTube channel. First, it will be our boys taking on Nagasaki at home on Saturday, followed by (15) Tokyo Verdy at home versus (21) Iwate Grulla Morioka on Sunday.

Click>>>> JLeague Int’l YouTube broadcast of FC Ryukyu vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Click>>>> J.League Int’l YouTube broadcast of Tokyo Verdy vs Iwate Grulla Morioka

Conclusion

It was a very active week for FC Ryukyu, one that has seemed to breathe some much needed life back into the supporters, and more importantly, the club. It started with the release of Kina on Monday, followed by the release of a the new 3rd kit in the midweek and ending with the signing of Brazilian forward Kelvin on Thursday. All good signs moving forward but how quickly will the first and last bit of that news pay dividends? The clock is ticking.

Montedio Yamagata vs FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

FC Ryukyu suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to Montedio Yamagata this past weekend and once again find themselves at the bottom of the table. This was the fifth time that FC Ryukyu were shutout this season (1/4 of their games), the sixth time they’ve conceded three (3) or more goals, and the second consecutive week of surrendering three (3) or more goals. Ryukyu are now two (2) points behind Iwate Grulla Morioka, who have a game in hand, and three (3) behind Omiya Ardija in the relegation race.

Match Highlights

Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Concede fewer goals than Yamagata. Likelihood 1. I don’t think I need to add anything here.

Match Day 20 Takeaways

1. Yamagata were just better than Ryukyu in nearly every facet of the game. Yamagata’s first goal was a lovely chip over Taguchi – who may have drifted a little far off his line – after Ryukyu couldn’t capitalize from a strong start. The second goal for Yamagata was a mishandling of a shot from Taguchi but Yamagata were able to find plenty of space within the Ryukyu back line of three (3) defenders to operate on Sunday. Yamagata’s third goal seemed nearly identical to their second when another cross came into a dangerous area and was headed past Taguchi. Yamagata’s fourth and final goal was a lovely piece of work from Kunitomo Suzuki to put one past Taguchi on the near post. A bit worrisome that Yamagata had a conversion rate of 60% for their shots on net.

2. Ryukyu have conceded seven (7) goals within two games while being outscored 9-3 over their last four (4) matches. Ryukyu also managed to push their league leading (probably) goals conceded after the 75th minute total to double digits (10). Three (3) goals were conceded within a span of thirteen minutes. That was the fourth time this season where Ryukyu conceded three (3) goals within a time span of 16 minutes or less!

Round 20 in J2

A couple of upsets and heavy defeats highlight the fixtures from this past Round. Albirex Niigata moved back into the top slot following their draw on the road at Vortis and with Sendai losing on the road to JEF United Chiba. All three (3) of the top clubs remain level on points after Yokohama FC rescued a draw at home Tokyo Verdy. There was another four (4) goal defeat this round with Fagiano Okayama shipping five (5) past Zweigen Kanazawa on their way to a 5-1 victory.

Omiya Ardija lost for the first time in two (2) games but it was the shocking 1-0 win at home for Iwate over Kofu, which was also Iwate’s first home win of the season, that pulled them within one (1) point of Omiya and off the bottom of the table.

Conclusion

26% of teams (6/23), five (5) occurring in the last eight (8) seasons following the creation of the J3 league, that were at the bottom of the table after Match Day 20 ended up relegated that season.

(6) Montedio Yamagata vs (21) FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

Ryukyu face an uphill battle when they travel North to Yamagata this Sunday. To be fair, every game remaining may seem like an uphill battle for a team that has been riddled with injuries and shell-shocked by late goals resulting in crucial points dropped. This games kicks of five (5) tough fixtures in a row for Ryukyu which also happens to coincide with that time of the year when Ryukyu are prone to slumps. A mid season slump feels like a yearly occurrence for the club, usually due to key injuries in the squad, and if Ryukyu were to suffer another slump this season, it would likely be the next to last nail in their relegation coffin.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info

Traveling fans will have some nice weather to enjoy this weekend.

Click>>>> Match Day 20 Information from Montedio Yamagata

Team Previews

Montedio Yamagata: Montedio Yamagata, like they seem to do every year, started a bit sluggish before embarking on a run of nine (9) games unbeaten that included a streak of five (5) wins in a row. I would love if Ryukyu could pull of a winning streak like that, but for Yamagata, these streaks never really result in promotion. Maybe that will change this year?

Yamagata might have a tough time getting over line now that, like FC Ryukyu, they’ve lost their top scorer for an extended period of time. Yoshiki Fujimoto was on seven (7) goals this season before succumbing to a season ending ACL injury. Like Ryukyu, Yamagata will be heavily invested in the transfer window this summer to try and find a replacement. Unlike Ryukyu, they likely they have the finances and clout to replace their lost striker with a talented player.

Yamagata’s lone loss in the past two months came at the hands of Albirex Niigata last week to the tune of 3-0. They did also lose their Emperors Cup match with Thespakusatsu Gunma in the mid-week 1-3 so perhaps there is the smallest of chances that Yamagata are reeling at the moment. But I think this matchup presents a “get right” game for Montedio to get back on track for the promotion playoff race as Ryukyu have never won at Yamagata. In 2019, an 88th minute goal from Yamagata wiped out an earlier Takuma Abe PK goal. In 2020, Yamagata destroyed Ryukyu 3-0. However, in 2021 it was Ryukyu’s turn to play spoiler as they scored a late goal to end that match in a 2-2 draw.

FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu are coming off a heartbreaking draw at home last Sunday against Tokushima Vortis (3-3) and a mid-week Emperors Cup loss (1-4) to Omiya Ardija. Both games were at home so those fans that did venture out were at least treated to eleven (11) goals inside of a few days. Ryukyu have some serious questions heading into one of their toughest matchups with injuries continually piling up. Luckily, Ryukyu escaped any further damage to players in the EC match with Omiya despite playing some of the regular starters. But then there was the news on Thursday that Yuki Kusano, Ryukyu’s top scorer, will be out three (3) months with a torn MCL. A crushing blow to our hopes and dreams for avoiding relegation.

There will be a new center-back duo playing this match as Yong Jick went off injured during the Vortis match which leaves Ryukyu with just a couple of healthy defenders. The obvious choice would be the Numata/Omori pairing with So Nakagawa in reserve. Omori did play the entire match on Wednesday in an attempt to get him so game experience heading into a brutal run of fixtures for Ryukyu. On the other hand, Nakagawa played sparingly compared to Yusuke Murase who made just his second ever appearance for the club, the other being last year’s Emperors Cup match with Matsumoto Yamaga. It is hard to say if any of the central defenders had a decent game on Wednesday considering we conceded four (4) goals.

It is what it is until players return from injury or we acquire some players in the transfer window next month. Speaking of depth, we got a long look at some of the players that rarely feature for FC Ryukyu against Omiya. Van Luan Pham, the on-loan player from Saigon FC, arguably had the best shift for Ryukyu that night. The defensive mid-fielder more than held his own, was involved in some nice build up plays (though rarely passed to by some of his teammates) and was an absolute spark plug you covet from a central defensive midfielder. I am not sure of how many ‘regulars’ Omiya deployed that match to accurately gauge Pham’s abilities at the J2 level, but I think he did enough to at least warrant dressing for some of the senior matches going forward. This is especially true considering Ryukyu also lost central midfielder, Kazuto Takezawa, to a shoulder injury for the next few weeks.

Unfortunately, many of the other players we would’ve liked to seen play, or liked to see them do something, were not able to during a game largely controlled by Omiya. With Ryukyu’s next five (5) games coming against some tough opponents, does Ryukyu have enough healthy players to garner some results and prevent a mid-season collapse that would all but dash any hopes for avoiding relegation?

Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Concede fewer goals than Yamagata. Likelihood 1. Tough place to be in as a Ryukyu fan these days when you’re team is desperate for results and having to do it shorthanded. Good luck boys.

Kinain’ Ya Around

Ryukyu have only lost once in their last five (5) games, twice in their last eight (8), but there has been too many matches that have ended in draws (4). No doubt this is due to Ryukyu surrendering eight (8) goals after the 75th minute this season. Ryukyu have been outscored 19-10 in the second half of games with the unthinkable stat of conceding four (4) goals in extra time of the second half. Their first half performance is only slightly better with a 16-13 goals conceded to scored ratio, but they’ve also conceded four (4) goals within the allotted extra time of the first half! Killer to Ryukyu, momentum swinging for our opponents. In nineteen (19) games this season Ryukyu have managed only one (1) extra time goal in either half. And perhaps this is why teams really walk all over Ryukyu in the later stages of games.

Round 20 in J2

No top of the table clashes this week but plenty of games with teams next to one another in the standings. The top three sides (Sendai, Niigata, and Yokohama) have extended their point lead to nine (9) at the top and all have games against teams in currently in the mid table. Teams ranked between fourth and fourteenth – separated by just four (4) points – are likely to see the continued churn in that part of the table.

At the bottom, where we as Ryukyu supporters are most concerned, sees (21) Iwate at home to (9) Ventforet Kofu. Iwate have lost thee (3) in a row and have yet to win at home this season with Kofu having drawn their last five (5) matches with four (4) consecutive 1-1 score lines. (20) Omiya Ardija are also at home to (16) Mito Hollyhock. Omiya are coming off two (2) wins and a draw in their last three (3) games, including the Emperors Cup, with Hollyhock suffering three (3) straight losses in all competitions. The round 20 free broadcast on the J.League International YouTube channel will feature (1) Yokohama FC hosting, and wait for it, (14) Tokyo Verdy again. Click>>>> J.League Int’l YouTube Channel.

Conclusion

Ryukyu just have to go out and defeat a team they’ve never beaten, but one they’ve had some limited success against (2 draws) on the road, without their top scorer and a makeshift back line. Drinks on me everyone!