MD23 Preview: (21) Omiya Ardija vs (4) FC Ryukyu #FC琉球

Intro

Both FC Ryukyu and Omiya Ardija need this win on Sunday. Ryukyu, currently fourth, are circling the drain and risk falling out of the promotion race with another loss, or dropped points, to a bottom four side. Omiya, who are starting to get something going on the heels of some recent strong performances by Kurokawa and Ibba, could climb out of the relegation zone for the first time in months with a win over Ryukyu and some results in the league going in their favor. These two sides played to a 0-0 draw the last time they met, but that was the old Omiya with Ken Iwase in charge and Ryukyu fully fit. Ryukyu has reached, or exceeded, the three goal plateau every time they have traveled to Saitama and that would be a welcome sight after last week’s results and before heading into the summer break.

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
2. Previous Match Highlights
3. Team Previews
   • Omiya Ardija
   • FC Ryukyu
4. Keys to Victory
5. Prediction
6. Round 23 in J2
7. Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from Omiya Ardija

With the priority prevention measures in Saitama, as well as the state of emergency in Okinawa, this game will be capped out at 5,000 fans with no visiting fans allowed to attend. Click>>> Match Day 23 Info

2. Previous Match Highlights

3. Team Previews

Omiya Ardija: Pretty much left for dead, Omiya Ardija have turned things around the past few weeks. They’ve earned 6 points from their last 5 games, a point total that took them 13 weeks earlier in the season to match, and won their first game in over three months. Omiya are also on their third manager this season after parting ways with Ken Iwase in May, and then caretaker manager Norio Sasaki making way for Masahiro Shimoda. Last week I mistakenly thought that SC Sagamihara were ripe for the picking when truly it was Ryukyu who were the ones ready to be plucked for points and things are shaping up to the same way this week.

After suffering three consecutive defeats, Omiya took the early lead over Tochigi SC in the fifth minute but conceded the equalizer inside the first half. Against Matsumoto Yamaga they had a chance at breaking the 0-0 deadlock but Ibba’s shot right on the doorstep ended up hitting the post. That first win in over three months for Omiya came at Renofa Yamaguchi when Kurokawa scored his first goal this season. Omiya nearly doubled their lead at the end but were denied by their own player, whose momentum took him into the net, and was subsequently hit on the backside by a Nermin Haskic shot to deny the goal.

At home to Montedio Yamagata the following week Omiya once more took the early lead from an Ibba goal, only to see them lose a lead for the second time inside their last five fixtures. On the road last week at V-Varen Nagasaki, Omiya clawed their way back into the game and scored an 87′ minute equalizer from Atsushi Kurokawa who has now scored two goals inside of his last three games. Both Kurokawa and Ibba look to be the most dangerous players for Omiya that Ryukyu need to concern themselves with on Sunday as each is in fine form. And both players have a limited history of scoring against Ryukyu as Ibba has notched two goals and Kurokawa one in these fixtures.

Omiya’s track record against the top four clubs this season is not good, as one might expect from a team currently sitting in 21st position. However, the lone point they have earned against these sides came back on match day six when they traveled to FC Ryukyu and held the hosts to a 0-0 draw. That game also happened to occur after Omiya had a strong performance against V-Varen Nagasaki the previous week and perhaps the recent run of form, coupled with the early success against what is now a much weaker FC Ryukyu side, might just be enough to buoy this team to their first home win in four months.

FC Ryukyu: We know Omiya’s track record against the top four sides in J2 isn’t that great, well, FC Ryukyu’s record against the bottom four isn’t something to boast about either. In the five games this season against the bottom four clubs, FC Ryukyu have managed 8 points out of a possible 15 with 2 wins, 2 draws and the lone loss occurring last week at home to SC Sagamihara. Oh, where would Ryukyu be with even some of those dropped points?

Though Ryukyu are not quite out of it yet, and with the top sides squaring off against one another this week, Ryukyu must get the job done in Saitama. During the past week FC Ryukyu played another reserve match against Kagoshima United FC which saw some of our injured players return to action. Most notably, Dany Carvajal in goal, and Ryohei Okazaki in defense. Each player played one half of that game and hopefully that is enough, for Okazaki at least, to enter the starting eleven this round.

Ryukyu has the uncanny ability to both play up, and down, to their competition this season. A trend that cannot continue in the short term as they need all three points this week. Most of Ryukyu’s dropped points this season have occurred during games when the opposition affords Ryukyu the majority of possession, frustrates Ryukyu in attack, and then hits us on the counterattack. Both coaches and players lament this fact after each of these games and if that is Omiya’s game plan this week, then we need to adjust quicker to Omiya’s tactics instead of sticking with what we though would work at the start of the match and hope for a lucky breakthrough.

For me, that means Abe taking this team on his back like he has done so many times in the past and pulling the team across the finish line. Possibly without both our starting fullbacks, as Numata wasn’t on the matchday roster last week, we also need Koya and/or Kiyotake, Shimizu and Nakagawa to be heavily involved with penetrating runs in and around the box and not simply laying the ball off back to Uesato and our center backs.

4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Respond to Omiya’s fast start: Likelihood 3. Omiya seemed to really go after their opponents in the opening 15’ minutes of games as evidenced by the Ibba goals inside 10 minutes against Tochigi SC and Montedio Yamagata. If Omiya do take the lead, expect what we’ve seen in the past with teams packing the defensive box so we better figure it the heck out on offense.

2. Help Abe out: Likelihood 2. Abe scored three goals in the first five games of 2021, which FC Ryukyu were undefeated, but has only managed 1 goal over his last 15 games, with none in his last five. Though, he has chipped in three assists the last three weeks, but this man needs to be scoring goals more than setting them up. He is too good of a striker to be sitting on such a low goal total. But he also needs support from the cast surrounding him. Abe can create space by drawing defenders in and it is time some of the other players do the same for Abe.

5. Prediction

Omiya sort of have the same thing going for them this week that SC Sagamihara had last week, and earned a quarter of their total points all season when they played Nagasaki and Ryukyu in back-to-back weeks. I think this one ends in disappoint for FC Ryukyu to the tune of 2-1 to Omiya. Season Record 6-5-11.

6. Round 23 in J2

There are some big games at the top of the table this week as (1) Jubilo Iwata host (6) Montedio Yamagata and then (2) Kyoto Sanga host (3) Albirex Niigata. Really makes those dropped points by Ryukyu last week hurt even more now. The free broadcast this week will feature Omiya Ardija and FC Ryukyu. Tune in and enjoy (maybe). Click>>> J.League International YouTube Channel.

7. Conclusion

This is the last time we will see FC Ryukyu in action until August. I honestly have no idea which FC Ryukyu team will show up on Sunday and we can only hope it is the one that secures all three points and not the one that drops us out of the promotion race before the break. Come on lads!