Intro
The shoe is on the other foot this week as FC Ryukyu welcome in Omiya Ardija, a team they have had great success against in years past, and a team that is looking to exorcise those ghosts. The only thing standing between Ryukyu and history is a team that they have habitually beat, but one that won’t lay down so easy. And let’s not forget that Omiya already own a victory on Ryukyu soil.
- Weather Forecast and Match Day Info
- Match Day 5 Recaps
- Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Omiya Ardija
- Keys to Victory
- Prediction
- Match Day 6 in J2
- Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast and Match Day Information from FC Ryukyu
It will be slightly overcast and cool after the rain passes through which should make for some pleasant conditions to watch football. There is always a chance it rains here in Okinawa so be prepared.
There is no escaping the fact that Okinawa is in the midst of their third wave of COVID-19 infections. The number of infections have steadily increased since March 20th and though the club and the league are doing all they can to combat any outbreaks among the fans at games, we all need to do our part within and around the stadium (and possibly the days leading up to the game). Maintain the 2m social distancing guidelines – that means while waiting in line for food, drinks, merchandise, restroom facilities, and when entering and exiting the stadium – and continue to wear your masks when around others inside the grounds. I know this is easier said then done, especially when you have children in attendance, but until the prefecture can get a handle on the recent outbreak, we all run the risk of heading into another state of emergency and possibly games without fans.
Match Day 6 Information from the Club
2. Match Day 5 Recaps
3. Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: It has been a dream start of the season for Ryukyu, but the work is far from done. If you read the recap earlier this week then you know FC Ryukyu are on a historic pace. But you also know that Ryukyu own a dubious record in those columns as they are one of five teams to never achieve promotion after wining their first four games to start a season (2019). And now that list has shrunk to only one team out four who have failed to reach promotion after winning their first five games. I’d personally hate to see Ryukyu make it number two but that largely depends on winning the winnable, achieving the unbelievable, and maintaining the status quo at times. Something we have never been able to do in the two seasons we’ve spent in the J2.
The old adage is offense wins games, defense wins championships. That rings true more than you know these days as FC Ryukyu are winning games through defense which is largely attributed to the CB pairing of Okazaki and Chinen, and Taguchi in goal. The pair had a momentary slip up this past weekend but for the most part have been a fortress for a team that has been one of the worst defending sides in J2 the past two years. For his part, Taguchi is playing some of the best football imaginable. If you finally put a defense behind this offense, and that defense carries this side until that offense starts clicking, then you have the perfect recipe for success.
Heading into the JEF match I was concerned that Abe was going to miss time after a nasty looking injury forced him from the Nagasaki game. But Abe was back out there for the JF match and buried one of the best headers – from distance as well – that you will see this year. Shintaro Shimizu followed that up with his own header to put FC Ryukyu ahead for good just five minutes later. It has been a bit of a rough start to Kiyotake’s Ryukyu career though the LM does have an assist to his credit. You can tell he is slightly perturbed by his performances as he expects so much better of himself and hopefully the Omiya match will be the one that gets him firing.
Though we’d all love to see Kiyotake scoring multiple goals, I think his immediate contributions are more in line with providing quality deliveries to the attacking players. He is already heavily involved in the buildup play but he needs a few crosses to connect with Abe to gain the confidence that can propel Ryukyu even farther forward. So let us be honest, at this point in the season Ryukyu need confidence boosts as much as they need positive results. They have shown the ability to win while maintaining narrow leads as well as winning games when they need to come from behind. All that is left is to go out there each week and beat the teams they should beat.
Omiya Ardija: This certainly isn’t the same Omiya side from last season, and it certainly isn’t the one that opened the season with a win followed by three consecutive losses. Omiya has really turned things on ever since the late loss to SC Sagamihara on match day three, and they are playing some inspired football at the moment.
Omiya was able to shrug off an early Mito goal on match day one by scoring two second half goals to go on and win. One of those goals came from Masaya Shibayama who is just 18 years old. Shibayama looked to be one of Omiya’s best players in the opening three fixtures but has since disappeared from the highlights and roster altogether. Omiya’s fortunes began a downward spiral when they lost their home opener to Ventforet Kofu 2-0 from two set piece goals. Things continued to look bad when at home to Kyoto Sanga the following week when Omiya conceded an early goal, but luckily some severe weather postponed the match before it gout out of control.
Ardija finally hit rock bottom against SC Sagamihara when they conceded two late goals to the hosts, which also happened to be SC Sagamihara’s only goals scored up to that point, and left Kanagawa prefecture utterly disappointed. But that is when something changed inside the club. I am not sure if it was due to a changing of personnel, or somehow Ken Iwase convinced these guys that they are far better than the overall standings state, and more importantly, they need to start believing it.
Though Omiya wasn’t able to defeat Kyoto in the replay, they looked a far different side than weeks past, and played much better. Omiya were relentless in the press and had multiple chances to win that game but couldn’t find the breakthrough. In an unfortunate set of events, Tomoki Ueda’s challenge on Peter Utaka inside the box led to the PK that ultimately sealed Omiya’s fate. The Omiya players were visibly frustrated at losing this close game, and to their credit, they rose up the following week against V-Varen Nagasaki.
Omiya were motivated and seemed to be hunting for goals in packs against Nagasaki. They opened the scoring early in the first half with Nermin Haskic scoring his second goal in as many games from a very nice header before completely decimating Nagasaki with another first half goal and two second half goals. It was Omiya’s best performance of the year by a mile.
Omiya are playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder these days and may even be viewing themselves as underdogs that lack the respect they are due from their opponent, the league and the media. The whole “us versus the world” mentality you often hear circulating around the sporting world. This is can be a very powerful mental tool that makes Omiya a very dangerous opponent on Saturday, but it is much harder to sustain in the long football season.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Bend don’t break. Likelihood 3. Omiya are just going for it these days which means they will likely come out fast, pile on the pressure in the attack, while pressing in defense, and look to jump out to an early lead over Ryukyu. For Ryukyu, they kind of trade possession and opportunities with their opponents this season in 15-minute chunks so they really need to respond to the early Omiya pressure just as they have done with their past five opponents. Ryukyu may have been fortunate enough to play sides who were too afraid to lose up to this point in season, but that is certainly not the case with Omiya these days who are playing like a cornered animal fighting for their very existence.
2. Quick short passes to break the Omiya high defensive line. Likelihood 4. Ryukyu had far too many turnovers at JEF last week when they were attempting to split the defense and start a counter from long passes emanating in our end. They really need Abe and his hold up play this week so as to get the 3 attacking midfielders involved on the quick breaks.
3. Set pieces could make all the difference. Likelihood 2. One of FC Ryukyu’s strengths this year has been scoring from crosses into the box. Just look at last week against JEF when they scored two to win. However, Omiya has yet to conceded a single goal from a cross but are extremely vulnerable on set pieces. Omiya conceded 3 goals from set pieces in two consecutive games against Kofu and SC Sagamihara, but on the other hand, Ryukyu have yet to score a single goal from a set piece this season. Right now, the Ryukyu attack flows through the midfield and they could very well end up meeting a brick wall when they attempt these types of crosses into the box that have made them so successful this year. Hopefully Uesato or Koki can hit one from a free kick, or Ryukyu can score from a corner to penetrate the Omiya defense.
5. Prediction
FC Ryukyu have won three of the four games they’ve played against Omiya. Last year FC Ryukyu completely blanked Omiya to the tune of 8 goals scored, 0 conceded in their two games. Ryukyu have scored multiple goals against Omiya every time with the lowest score line of any of these matches being just 3 total goals scored on match day 30 last year.
Omiya took the mid week loss to Kyoto Sanga FC pretty hard but responded really well when they dispatched V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 this past weekend. I don’t think we’ll see the goal scoring bonanzas we have come to enjoy when these two sides meet, instead, I think this ends in a spirited 2-2 draw where Ryukyu concede multiple goals for the first time all season. Season Record 3-0-2.
6. Match Day 6 in J2
As it is likely that (1) Albirex Niigata continue their winning ways over (17) SC Sagamihara this week, the only real questions are: 1.) Can (2) FC Ryukyu hold serve over (10) Omiya Ardija? 2.) Can (19) V-Varen Nagasaki rebound at home to (4) Ventforet Kofu who are also looking to rebound from their recent loss to (8) FC Machida Zelvia? 3.) And finally, can (4) Blaublitz Akita continue their hot start over the extremely low scoring (21) Matsumoto Yamaga FC?
7. Conclusion
Can FC Ryukyu make history by winning their 6th consecutive game or will they fall victim to a team that they should beat on paper? Either way, it is another early test for this side in what is shaping up to be a promising season here in Okinawa. This should be a very electric contest with both teams trading chances on the counter attack so sit back and enjoy.
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