Intro
FC Ryukyu marches North for the first time this season where they will take on Thespakusatsu Gunma. Gunma are a team they traded 1-0 away wins with last season, and who finished just 1 point behind FC Ryukyu in the standings. In their first meeting since FC Ryukyu lifted the J3 trophy against Gunma in 2018, FC Ryukyu beat Gunma 1-0 on Match Day 12 with a very uninspiring performance. Gunma returned the favor on Match Day 26 with an equally uninspiring effort to beat FC Ryukyu 1-0 in Okinawa. Whereas FC Ryukyu enter the match riding a 2-game win streak, Gunma are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw on the road at SC Sagamihara. For Ryukyu, this is a very important match as the 3 points would push their point total to 9 right before a very tough stretch of games. For Gunma, their opening schedule of fixtures, and perceived potential points accumulated in those fixtures, is vital for their survival.
- Weather Forecast & Match Info
- Match Day 2 Recap
- Team Previews
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
- FC Ryukyu
- Keys to Victory
- Prediction
- Match Day 3 in J2
- Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Slightly colder than what we’ve been experiencing down here in Okinawa.
FC Ryukyu fans will be allowed to attend the match, and the link below contains the necessary information as far as hanging banners and match watching etiquette.
MD3 Info From Thespakusatsu Gunma’s Official Site
2. Match Day 2 Recap
3. Team Previews
Thespakusatsu Gunma: Just like FC Ryukyu, Gunma have a favorable schedule to open the 2021 season. But Gunma’s schedule is far more front loaded than Ryukyu’s. Gunma started with the newly promoted J3 teams, Akita and Sagamihara in consecutive weeks earning 4 points; take on FC Ryukyu this week; face current leaders Niigata the following week, and then play Kitakyushu. Gunma’s only ‘tough’ opponents over the next month include Niigata and Nagasaki, as they have Ehime, Renofa and Fagiano to round out the fixture list through April. But you could even extended their fortunes into May with some of their opponents current form. All told, this is a crucial part of Gunma’s season that could very well determine their fate by seasons end.
Gunma need to embark on a ‘smash and grab’ campaign these first 3 months of the season to ensure their survival, though at least at this point in the season based on results and performance of some teams, Gunma have one of the best opening and closing schedules of any team trying to stave off relegation. Despite the favorable scheduling, Gunma have been unable to take full advantage of the fixture list. They defeated Akita at home 2-1 to open 2021, but then dropped a vital 2 points against Sagamihara when they limped to a 0-0 draw this past weekend.
Gunma started off fast against Akita with an opening goal from a CK in the 4th minute but then allowed Akita to dictate much of the game before making it all square with an early contender for goal of the year from Akita. Unfortunately for Akita they let Gunma hang around until Gunma went ahead for good in the 83rd minute after a nice set of passes opened up Akita at the back. Sagamihara put up a fight in their game with Gunma, came close on a few occasions, but so did Gunma when they hit the framework on multiple occasions. Neither side could crack the back line and the game ended in a draw with Gunma coming out on the losing end of the points dropped. A scene we were all to familiar with here at Ryukyu last year.
FC Ryukyu: Dressing the same 18 players from the previous week, FC Ryukyu jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Renofa Yamaguchi before hanging on for a 2-1 win. There were some signs of life from the offense against Renofa compared to Match Day 1 against Jubilo where there was almost none, but we still need to see more from a team built on attacking football. Ryukyu enjoyed an uptick in possession last week, and it was good to see Abe get back on the scoresheet; Kiyotake and Koya becoming more involved in the attack; and seeing Keita Tanaka grab his second point – first goal – of the 2021 season. But there were plenty of missed chances, and close calls that prevented Ryukyu from pushing the score line even higher.
Ren Ikeda maintained his grip on the starting CAM role but we have to wonder when Kazaki Nakagawa will finally get a crack at the position. Ryukyu had acres of space to operate on the Renofa flanks, but lacked any serious thrust down the middle. I think this is where Nakagawa thrives, and is what we saw from Ryukyu last year when Koizumi was marshalling the attack. All we have seen to date from the club is highlights of Nakagawa looking fit in training videos, but he has yet to even dress in the reserves. I hope we didn’t acquire his services as a mere insurance policy in the event of injuries this year as he is to good of a player to be left off the squad.
Which brings us to the reserves that Higuchi chooses each match. Counting Abe, Ryukyu have dressed, and played, four forwards each week. And they all come on at roughly the same time, for the same exact players. We already know what Abe and Shinya Uehara bring to the attack as forwards, but we then ask Akamine and Shintaro to play out wide when they come on for Koya and Kiyotake. I have no idea what Ryukyu intend to do when the Thai and Vietnamese reinforcements arrive later this year as they will join fellow talented midfielders, Kazaki, Motegi, and Ramon, out in the cold.
The lone mid-field substitute utilized by Higuchi is Ichimaru who usually comes on late in games for either Uesato or Koki. This means that Yu Tomidokoro, and the single defensive player we dress, Makito Uehara, end up as unused subs. Perhaps there is some contractional obligations at work which could force FC Ryukyu to pay some players a higher wage based on minutes played, but I really have no clue.
The formula has worked twice so far so I wouldn’t expect any changes to lineup or reserves this week.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. There is no game to date that requires another fast start from FC Ryukyu. We cannot afford to let Gunma hang around in a close game as they can find ways to dig out results. So it is best to put this one away before things become too stressful near the end. But we are also playing on the road for the first time this year so anything could happen.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. It may not be the usual candidates who pull this one out for Ryukyu, so that means it may fall upon the shoulders of a non-prolific goal scorer. Koki banging in a few from set pieces, or Uesato, or even Ichimaru is a strong possibility. It could also come from set pieces by our defenders, either way I’ll take it. Someone needs to step up here because if they do, then we will start seeing the pieces of a complete team coming together, something we haven’t seen since 2018.
5. Prediction
This could be a potential trap game for FC Ryukyu as even though they look to be the better side, they have a tendency to play down to their opponent. FC Ryukyu improved their road win total from 2019 to 2020 (5 wins in 2019, 7 wins in 2020), but are a very streaky team when traveling. In 2019, they won their first road game but didn’t win on the road again until Match Day 35. In 2020, they needed 5 road games to achieve their first win. So if anything, this is the ideal first road test for FC Ryukyu. The away team has won 3 out of the last 4 matches, only 1 game has ever exceeded more than 2 goals scored, and the home team has been shutout on 3 occasions. It won’t be pretty, but I think FC Ryukyu can complete the trifecta with a 2-1 gritty win. Season Record 1-0-1.
6. Match Day 3 in J2
No single fixture stands out this week with many teams still searching for answers, while others are looking to put some distance between themselves and their opponents at either end of the table. Unfortunately for any neutral fans, all the games kickoff at the exact same time on both days.
7. Conclusion
Well, here it is. A very important match for FC Ryukyu early on this season and one that we may look back come November as one that determined the fate of this club. Earning 9 points out of the gate is massive considering their upcoming fixtures. Aside from Ryukyu’s next 3 opponents – Nagasaki, JEF, and Omiya- Ryukyu then face Mito, Verdy, Zelvia and Kofu before finally getting to SC Sagamihara. We know Ryukyu have never earned a single point from either JEF or Kofu and were swept by Zelvia last season, meaning 3 points on Sunday will go a long way to future J2 football. Ryukyu showed signs of improvement in each of their last two games, can they continue that progress with a third win in a row over Gunma?
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