FC Ryukyu have equaled their greatest ever wining streak (5) dating back to 2018 when they defeated JEF United Chiba 2-1 on Saturday. The win moves FC Ryukyu into second place behind also undefeated Albirex Niigata. This was the first time FC Ryukyu ever beat JEF – ever scored against JEF- and played from behind all year. You may not consider a win against a team lower than Ryukyu in the standings as a significant achievement but considering the history between these clubs, and how that fits into this season, it was a huge win for Ryukyu.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Review of the Keys to Victory
Prediction
Talking Points
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Day 5 Highlights
2.Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu GK Junto Taguchi: While Tanaka’s efforts shouldn’t go unnoticed, neither should Taguchi’s efforts be lost in the box score. Taguchi made save after save in the first half to keep the score level and continued to pile up the big saves in the second half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. And they did. Ryukyu overcame a deficit for the first time all year and responded well in the face of adversity. The minor details matter in any season and this win was huge for Ryukyu for so many reasons. You cannot quantify this stat, but I want you to understand how important this win was for Ryukyu mentally to score, come from behind, and defeat an opponent they have never beat in two seasons. Only four more opponents to go in that category.
4.Prediction
Well I said we’d win by 1 goal at least. Season Record 3-0-2.
5.Talking Points
1. Playing as a unit. Ryukyu have shown a penchant this year for picking each other up when one member is having a bad day at the office. This week it was Chinen’s turn to have a forgettable movement, but both the team and then Chinen responded accordingly. Chinen slipped and allowed JEF to penetrate our defense, to which Okazaki also slipped on the turf though I am not sure where he was recovering to after he got to his feet, and then JEF finally had a wide-open shooting lane to score. Chinen, Yong Jick, and Numata more than made up for that early discretion with their defending at the end by clearing balls, blocking shots, closing down shooting lanes and marking men. Chinen will use this game as teaching lesson and will respond accordingly, don’t worry about him.
Photo Credit: J League. The Captain Uesato picking Chinen up after the game. Chinen responded well to an earlier mishap, evidence of the weight lifted off the teams shoulders from that win.
It should also be noted how the team responded to adversity. We already noted Numata, Yong Jick and Chinen in defense, but it was Tanaka in the attack. Ryukyu played from behind for all of 3 minutes before taking the lead for good within 5 minutes of JEF’s opening goal. Tanaka’s two crosses were met by Abe and Shintaro Shimizu and though the crosses were on target, the two forwards had a lot to do with them when they arrived. I spoke earlier in the week how it was good for Shintaro to play in the reserve games to get firing and it paid off this week. Abe for his part, is the best finisher in this league.
2. A game of missed opportunities. According to my count, JEF missed 6 golden opportunities to Ryukyu’s 3. Abe missed two early from tough bounces and being wrong footed, and also Ikeda missed a wide-open header early, but JEF had many great looks on net yesterday that ultimately sailed high and wide. The two misses by JEF near the end sealed their fate.
3. Send me everyone! JEF made a single substitution of 5 players at one time. I’ve never seen this and that had to be unsettling to a team when you replace half of the outfield players. Maybe it was an act of desperation in an attempt to equalize, but Higuchi was able to respond by also inserting Yong-Jick and allow both Uehara and Yong Jick to mark Salomon on all set pieces near the end.
4. I think the early cracks are visible on how to break down Ryukyu. I love Tanaka’s aggressiveness and assertiveness in the attack, but I think teams are starting to realize that attacking down the right, and left, might be this team’s Achilles heel. I am not saying that Tanaka cannot defend, or won’t, but that teams are starting to realize Ryukyu prefer to attack from the flanks, lack the thrust through the middle, and over commit at times down the sides may open up us in new ways. I have no clue how to remedy this as this puts all the pressure on the CBs and CDMs to cover the back when Ryukyu commit to the attack, but everything is working right now so no need to tinker with the formula for success.
6. Match Day 5 in J2
The Niigata battering ram continued along its path of destruction by dismantling Tokyo Verdy 7-0. The amount of goals scored by Niigata in that single game is more than 13 teams have scored all year in J2! It was kind of a disappointing weekend for some of the favorites as Nagasaki, Kofu, Kyoto, and Yamagata all lost.
With one more win FC Ryukyu will set the club’s single season record for consecutive wins. But that is no easy ask despite their opponent, Omiya Ardija, being one that Ryukyu have experienced many fortuitous results against in their short time in J2. Just like this week with Ryukyu needing to cross a major obstacle in JEF, Omiya too will be looking to exorcise some ghosts of years past against Ryukyu.
Would you have agreed to take the 15 points Ryukyu have earned at the start of the season if you knew it would pay dividends later when it comes to a relegation scrap? Do you know that FC Ryukyu are 1 of only 5 teams to win their opening 4 fixtures and not get promoted that year (2019)? Do you believe that 6 of 7 teams who opened the J2 season with 5 consecutive wins have gone on to earn promotion? I don’t want FC Ryukyu to be the second team in that stat to not to earn promotion. What do you believe about FC Ryukyu?
FC Ryukyu are off to a dream start in 2021 but much like 2019, JEF United Chiba will look to put a quick stop to Ryukyu’s momentum. I certainly did not see Ryukyu achieving four wins from four at the start of the season and was rather content when they had won three in a row to open the campaign. I think Ryukyu took advantage of a strong V-Varen Nagasaki side that are simply struggling to put all the pieces together at the moment but, Ryukyu also looked really good in doing so. However, JEF is another set of obstacles altogether as of all the teams in J2, JEF really has Ryukyu’s number.
Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 4 Recaps
Team Previews
JEF United Chiba
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 5 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
No complaints here. Looks like a lovely day for football.
JEF United Chiba: Where to begin? A team that has a long history? Yes. A team that has a recent history of success against FC Ryukyu? Yes. An organization and fan base with lofty expectations due to that lengthy history but always seem to fall short of expectations? Yes. Has JEF looked good in the 4 games leading up to this match? Not particularly. Can we say the same thing every time leading up to FC Ryukyu facing off with JEF, and yet Ryukyu still manage to lose? Unfortunately yes!
JEF are quite possibly the longest running joke in J2 for some of their past antics but whenever they play Ryukyu all of that is thrown out the window. A side by side comparison shows us that JEF owns roughly the same amount of possession in their past 4 games that Ryukyu’s opponents achieved (54%). However, FC Ryukyu are out shooting JEF by nearly 4 shots per game with at least 2 more of those shots being on target.
JEF has begun 2021 with one win, two draws and one loss under second year manager Jong-hwan Moon. When JEF opened the season at home against Kofu they displayed a bit of lackluster defending that allowed Kofu the freedom of movement and space to grab the early opener. JEF responded with a goal in the second half when Keita Buwanika rose high above the Kofu defense to bury a header. JEF then conceded a late PK but the goalie was able to stop the shot to keep the score line level. JEF were able to grab the early lead the following week at Ehime when defender Daisuke Suzuki sent a thunderous header past the Ehime keeper. But JEF allowed Ehime to hang around all game and once again the defense let them down when they needed them the most.
On match day 3 Blaublitz Akita came to Chiba and absolutely put it on JEF winning 2-0. JEF missed some chances during their counter attacks but they had no idea on how to break down the Akita defense despite the lopsided possession totals favoring JEF 71/39. JEF grabbed their first win of 2021 when they traveled to Matsumoto Yamaga FC by eking out a 1-0 victory in some rather poor conditions.
Averaging less than a goal a game, JEF are not a particularly strong team when you look at their results to date. They’ve only played one game this year when they had less than 50% possession but they are not doing much when they do have the ball. Against Ehime and Akita they were able to muster 10 total shots in each contest but were held to 5 against the stronger Kofu and Yamaga sides. JEF neither controls games or imposes their will on their opposition. They simply hope for breakthroughs to put themselves level or into the lead.
There is little doubt that JEF will want to start fast against Ryukyu by controlling a majority of the possession and chances, but this plays directly into Ryukyu’s strength as they are content on striking teams on the counter. And I am not sure JEF has the firepower to catch up to Ryukyu if they push the score line above 1 goal on Saturday.
FC Ryukyu: The Ryukyu match with Nagasaki was bittersweet. First, Ryukyu looked good allowing the game to come to them and hitting Nagasaki on the counter. Second, they defended well as a unit. But in the end, Ryukyu lost Abe to injury, and have no idea on his status, which could derail the momentum Ryukyu have built up in their first four games.
A lot of talk coming out of the club by the players and manager emphasize that they are not really focused on trying to control games with large amounts of possession like they did last year. Instead, Ryukyu are content on hitting their opponents with counter attacks. This is where Abe will be missed the most as his holdup play as an outlet valve for the team has been phenomenal this year. A lot of Ryukyu counterattacks started and ended with Abe. I am not sure who will step up in his place as he is not easily replaceable. Shintaro Shimizu is the likely candidate as he is the youngest of the 3 remaining strikers that Higuchi dresses each week. There is also an outside chance that Higuchi moves Ikeda into the FWD role but that would mean dressing a new midfielder for the first time all season. And Ryukyu do not have many choices at the moment.
Ramon is likely out a few more weeks while he deals with a soft tissue injury and Nakagawa may not be match fit yet. The only healthy options are Yu Tomidokoro or Shunsuke Motegi. But neither is a true CAM so I think Higuchi needs to stick with Ikeda at CAM and make the adjustment at FWD. There are the remote possibilities of of swapping Shimizu and Ikeda, bringing Tanaka up to RM – pushing Koya to CAM – and starting Makito Uheara at RB. But Higuchi could just as easily dress Hitomi if he thinks that neither Shintaro, Akamine, or Uehara can withstand the rigors of 60 minutes in the starting role.
Ryukyu should remain unchanged behind the front four with Uesato, Koki, Numata, Tanaka, Chinen, and Okazaki. These guys have been great at closing down shooting lanes, stifling the opposition’s attack, and will once again be called upon to do so with what may turn out to be a muted offensive performance by Ryukyu on Saturday. And yet, there are even more injuries that Ryukyu need to contend with.
Dany Carvajal recently went under the knife to repair some stress fractures to his lower leg and will be away from the team for 3-4 months. This means that Tsumita becomes the backup to Taguchi and I hope that he can push Taguchi the way Dany did in practice as we cannot afford for Taguchi to become complacent between the sticks when there are some winnable games on the horizon.
The JEF United Chiba game doesn’t represent a ‘must win’ game in the true sense. It is more for the Ryukyu psyche than anything. JEF are one of six teams – Iwata being the other but Ryukyu have already beat them this year – that FC Ryukyu have never defeated during their time in the J2. You’ve probably heard me say this on a few occasions, to include the fact that they have never scored a single goal against JEF in their entire history, and that is what makes this game so important to Ryukyu. Even more so when you consider that Higuchi’s goal for the season is 80 points for the club. While Ryukyu are a long way off from that total right now, and in spite of the fact of JEF sitting well below Ryukyu in the standings, any points earned in this game will fall squarely inside the Points Over Expectation Table.
It isn’t always about defeating an opponent that is stronger than you on paper that determines the strength of a side. Sometimes it is overcoming the mental hurdles and past failures that can make all the difference. And while that variable isn’t easily quantifiable, it is vitally important for Ryukyu’s overall success.
4.Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Slay the Dragon. Likelihood 4. It doesn’t matter how JEF have performed the past 4 rounds. It doesn’t matter how Ryukyu have performed the past 4 rounds. Prepare better than JEF. Execute better than JEF. Show the mental resolve to dig this one out. Overcome the challenges that have plagued us in the past and slay this beast once and for all.
5.Prediction
I do not expect Ryukyu to go out there and light up JEF, as they’ve never done that before despite JEF doing some pretty calamitous stuff throughout the years. Predicting a win in spite of the records is even bolder but that is what I am going to do as this isn’t the same team from 2019 or 2020. 1-0 in favor of FC Ryukyu. It won’t be pretty but it will be effective. Season Record 2-0-2.
6. Match Day 5 in J2
Times are listed in JST
(3) Ventforet Kofu hosting (10) FC Machida Zelvia and (8) Montedio Yamagata against (9) Fagiano Okayama stand out as the two fixtures with the most top half, and promotion, implications this round. Not to be outdone, (4) Zweigen Kanazawa and (5) Blaublitz Akita, will look to continue their hot starts to 2021. This will be Akita’s first home game of the 2021 season and quite possibly their toughest fixture to date. Elsewhere there are some bottom of the table clashes that could have big impacts for these clubs late in the year.
No J2 action this weekend as the J-League International YouTube channel will broadcast a Levain Cup match between Tokushima Vortis and Oita Trinita.
In 2019, it was JEF who ended Ryukyu’s unbeaten run of 6 games to open the season. Then they defeated Ryukyu to open the 2020 season. You know all the history between these two clubs. Well then…
FC Ryukyu played their first of six games in the 2021 J Elite League this past Sunday and I was fortunate enough to attend. Ryukyu will play another 5 games in a round-robin home and away tournament against Nagasaki, Kagoshima United FC and Avispa Fukuoka inside Group C. The opening game ended in 1-1 draw with two first half goals from both sides but I was more excited to see some of the players on the team that haven’t featured for Ryukyu this season.
Brief History on the J Elite League
Prior to this year I had no idea that there was even a ‘reserve’ league in existence for the J-League, but that was based on the fact that FC Ryukyu never participated in this type of tournament before. The only history I can find about any ‘reserve tournament’ existing for the J-League was from 1993-2009 before taking a lengthy break until 2016, followed by the J-Satellite League in 2018 and 2019, and finally the creation of the J Elite League in 2020. However, the 2020 season as cancelled due to the Coronavirus.
The League is designed on the premise of developing players under the age of 21, those within a team’s youth academy, and for the reserve members of each team. This year’s League will feature 14 clubs within 3 groups that are broken up geographically in a round-robin tournament from March 8 – November 30. Each club must have at least 3 U-21 participants in each match and they can make up to 7 substitutions each game through three substations not counting any made at half time. Plus the ‘concussion’ substitution rule change is in effect for the league.
Their was a cash incentive paid out to the top 6 sides of this tournament in 2018/19 but I am not sure if that system is still in place for 2021. As far as I can tell, there isn’t an official section of the J-League website that is dedicated to posting the results of each match or the overall standings. As for now, all you have to go on is the press releases from each of the clubs participating in the tournament. More information about the League can be found in the links below this section.
Luckily V-Varen Nagasaki posted a video for this match to their official YouTube Channel
Talking Points
1. These matches obviously benefit the reserve players more than the academy players but this game couldn’t have come at a better time. Most of the starting 11 for Ryukyu were either bench players from previous matches or players you would expect to feature in the event of an injury to a starting member. And it was good to get these guys “match experience” with FC Ryukyu facing a bit of an injury crisis at the moment.
You may have seen that Dany Carvajal will be out for a few months while he deals with a stress fracture to his lower leg. Though Taguchi has a stranglehold on the starting GK position, I am sure the competition for the starting role at practices will fall off with Dany out and Ryukyu are left with only 1 other GK with any J2 experience, Inose. However, it was Tsumita who got the start over Inose on Sunday. Perhaps they want to see what they have in Tsumita moving forward or perhaps he has earned the #3 GK role for Ryukyu.
Shintaro Shimizu leveled the score with a thunderous strike and his contributions to the first team will be vital in the event Abe misses time due to injury. There has been no word on the status of Abe following his exit due to injury this past Saturday and I truly do not expect the club to release any unless it is serious enough to warrant a lengthy absence. In my opinion, that leaves Shintaro as the likely candidate to start at FWD for Ryukyu. He mas made appearances this season but could be asked to play a lot more in the coming weeks.
It is a shame there are only five more of these games throughout the year as you would want these reserve players to get as many match minutes as possible in the event they are called up. Still, I think Ryukyu made the right call to join this league with the number of players they have on the roster so as to evaluate what they have at any given moment and more importantly by season’s end.
2. It was a telling sign to see who didn’t dress for this match. In particular, Ramon and Nakagawa. There is chatter amongst the Ryukyu supporters that Ramon is dealing with a minor injury that won’t keep him out for long, but the rumors surrounding Nakagawa are more concerning. Some of the supporters said that Nakagawa arrived in “rough shape” to Ryukyu this offseason. This could mean anything from a nagging injury requiring a rehabilitation and strengthening period or just being out of football shape from not featuring on a regular basis for the better part of two seasons. I hope Nakagawa is progressing in his efforts to return to the pitch as he can provide a huge boost to the attack when match fit. He may need to return sooner rather than later in the event Ikeda is asked to fill in up top for the injured Abe.
We also didn’t see RB Tavares or MF Sawada in this match and there has been no word on their status to date.
3. Yong-Jick looks to be a better CDM than CB. When Murase came on for Ichimaru, Yong Jick moved forward into the central mid fielder role and he looked more comfortable, more in control, and was better positioned defensively than I’ve seen from him in the past. Ryukyu’s only other center backs on the roster are Fukui and Murase so they don’t have the luxury of depth at the position to make the switch permanent, but it may provide some flexibility for Ryukyu moving forward. I would have rather seen Makito Uehara make the move to CDM this game but I understand why it is important to get him some game reps at his listed RB position.
4. Shunsuke Motegi looked good in his first full match in quite some time. Ryukyu currently dress four forwards each match but I don’t think that is sustainable. Motegi was a very good player before coming to Ryukyu and his inclusion into the top team could prove vital in the case of Shintaro moving into the starting FWD role.
5. FC Ryukyu and the fans should be very excited for what they have in both Reo Yamashita (LB) and Koki Yushin (MF). Both players had a really good game against this level of competition and the future looks really bright for the 16-year-old Yushin. He more than held his own out there and I was surprised to find out he was that young and playing that well against some of the senior players from Nagasaki. Yushin’s development could move forward rapidly if he sees regular action in the remaining games of this tournament.
Reo Yamashita played well enough to at least warrant consideration in the Ryukyu top team if Numata is injured or requires a rest day. Yamashita is the only other LB on the roster and despite not having played a single minute at this level of competition, the college player looks like he could withstand some of the rigors of the J2. There is still a steep learning curve he needs to navigate but he displayed plenty of confidence and skill in his first match.
6. It is hard to assess where the level of this competition is compared to the J2 and J3 leagues. First, most of the players in the lineup were veterans of the J-league so I cannot say that it was any less than the level of J2, or any more than J3. Second, I think there were only about 4 youth players that featured between the two sides so it was not as if we were seeing the likes of the U-23 sides from years past or the famous all Japanese U-23 side from the inaugural J3 campaign of 2014. Finally, it is the exact type of competition needed to keep reserve players fresh while allowing youth players to gain valuable match experience at the current level of their parent club.
Conclusion
This was my first time watching a reserve team match for FC Ryukyu and I thoroughly enjoyed the day out with my son in a relaxed setting. I am not sure how many of these match recaps I will be able to write for the reserve games as the information surrounding this tournament is sparse and the match reports following the games even less so. Hopefully I can get to the remaining home matches to provide some more insight in the future but that will largely depend on when the matches are held and if fans are allowed to attend.
FC Ryukyu have equaled their longest ever winning streak in J2 with their 4th win from 4 this past weekend. Ryukyu now sit second in the table, level on points, with Albirex Niigata and have looked a far better side than we’ve seen these past few seasons. The loss continues to add to the struggles of Nagasaki but I wouldn’t count this team out just yet as there is still 38 rounds to play.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion
1. Match Highlights
2. Man of the Match
FC Ryukyu Mid Fielders Ren Ikeda & Koya Kazama: It was to hard to chose either one so I will go with a joint man of the match for round 4. Ikeda opened the scoring on a spectacular one time volley, and then added his 3rd goal of the campaign which ultimately turned out to be the winner for FC Ryukyu. Ren was set up on both of his goals by Koya Kazama with the second assist being the best of the bunch. Koya received the ball deep in the Nagasaki box, and could have rightly tried a shot from that range but instead opted to send a pass all the way back through the box to the streaking Ikeda who buried the goal. These two could have made it a hat-trick in both departments if Ikeda had buried a wide open chance early in the first half.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. The entire team played well under the Nagasaki pressure.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. And that they were. The only miss that stands out was the Koki Kazama shot that rocked the crossbar and would have put Ryukyu up by 2 goals early. But since Ryukyu have been saved a by the crossbar a few times this year, this stuff evens it out.
4. Talking Points
1. Doing more with less. FC Ryukyu were once again out possessed by their opponent but were able to bend, not break, when Nagasaki were attacking. Ryukyu needed to be clinical in their limited opportunities and they did just that. So far, Ryukyu have been playing a majority of their games this year with a lead so they haven’t been forced to chase a game which could possibly expose the back line. Though it needs to be said, Ryukyu have been very good at allowing the game to come to them instead of attempting to press.
2. There were a few nervy moments early on. Nagasaki’s attack was a little too narrow at the start and our central midfielders did really well to crowd out the top of the box when Nagasaki pushed deep into the Ryukyu end of the field. Nagasaki had two really good chances in the first half with one shot barely missing and the other being a wasted opportunity when Kato went at it alone instead of passing to one of the wide-open players on either side. The lone goal by Nagasaki came after Ryukyu had established a 3-goal advantage and there wasn’t much more Taguchi could have done as the ball bounced through a lot of traffic before Edigar Junio redirected it into the far corner. On that note, Junio made an immediate impact on the game when he came on in the second half.
3. The victory comes at a high price. Takuma Abe went down awkwardly in the 80th minute when he went sliding in for a cross by Numata. Abe’s left knee dug into the turf which then made it look like his hip was either hyperextended or he did some sort of damage to his lower back. He was forced to crawl over the touch line before briefly returning to his feet to make his way to the stretcher. Abe was in serious discomfort and there is no telling what the exact injury is or how long he will be out until the club releases a statement. It is a big loss for this team since Abe adds more than just goals for the team. His hold up play has been excellent this year and a lot of scoring chances begin with Abe getting the ball to one of the midfielders in space. It will come down to either Shintaro Shimizu or Takuya Hitomi starting at FWD with the veterans Akamine and Uehara spelling either of those two. There is one other option. Ren Ikeda could move into the FWD role like he did last year when both Abe and Uehara were out injured but he is not the same player in that role as Abe and that would leave a void in our central midfield as there has been no sign of Nakagawa up to this point.
5. Prediction
I was way off with my 2-1 victory for Nagasaki. Do not mind that at all. Season Record 2-0-2.
Ryukyu were not the only side with a shock win this round as SC Sagamihara earned their first ever win – while also scoring for the first time this season- when they defeated Omiya Ardija. Zweigen, Jubilo and Mito all thumped their opponents this round and Akita continues to pile up points in a strong opening act to their inaugural J2 season.
7. Conclusion
Heading into this round I said this would be a statement game for FC Ryukyu and they certainly answered the call. It is still to early to jump to any conclusions but the signs are encouraging. Ryukyu are facing a bit of an uphill battle when they travel to JEF United Chiba this week as it will likely be the first time where there are multiple changes to the starting 11 due to the Abe injury. While Nagasaki represented its own unique set of challenges for Ryukyu, JEF has a completely different set of obstacles to overcome. Ryukyu have never earned a single point off of JEF and they have yet to find the back of the net in the four games these teams have played. Heading into this match without your best forward is not ideal so we will now see how Ryukyu responds in the face of adversity.
FC Ryukyu will look to continue their fast start when they welcome in V-Varen Nagasaki this weekend. Ryukyu are in the midst of their longest winning streak in two seasons, while Nagasaki are looking to rebound from a rough start to the season. The match for FC Ryukyu is certainly their toughest to date, but at this point, a majority of the matches in the opening quarter of the season represent their own unique set of ‘firsts.’ First game of the year with a newly formed team; first road game; first game against a tougher opponent; first game against a weaker opponent; first game playing from a deficit; first game coming off a loss; and so on. Some may wonder if this Ryukyu side is for real. Well, we should have some idea at the end of this round.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Match Day 3 Recaps
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu
V-Varen Nagasaki
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 4 in J2
Conclusion
1.Weather Forecast and Match Day Information
Possibly the best weather forecast for Ryukyu this season. Slightly overcast, but the off chance it rains once again. Be prepared either way.
FC Ryukyu: When your team is on a 3-game winning streak, it is hard to find many faults as they’ve risen to the occasion every single time. Look no further than FC Ryukyu’s total time playing with a lead compared to playing from behind. 227 minutes played while leading, 64 minutes at an even score line, 0 minutes playing from behind. Granted, when you score two goals in the opening minute of two consecutive games that number is naturally going to be inflated. But they still kept Iwata and Gunma completely off the score sheet and prevented Renofa from scoring in the final 38 minutes.
In 2019, 5 of Ryukyu’s 13 wins came in the form of a shutout. That number jumped to 10 out of 14 in 2020. That can be attributed to the difference in the amount of goals conceded between those two seasons and so far Ryukyu are off to their best start defensively of any season in the J2. And that, as I stated in the first preview of 2021, will be the telling sign for the overall fate of the team this year. There is no doubt that Chinen benefited from his first season at the J2 level last year, and somehow, Okazaki has started to put it all together after what seemed to be a career trending in the wrong direction. At least for now we haven’t seen the poor judgement, consistently out of position play that plagued us at the back for much of the past few seasons.
Abe will continue to get his goals and eventually Ryukyu will start to dictate games from their mid-field, but for now, they are winning through defense. Even more so, they are winning with the same combination of players. Ryukyu remained roughly in tact through the transfer window despite the departures of Koizumi and Kawai that many expected and maybe, just maybe, these players have the experience required in Higuchi’s system to make some real noise in the J2 this year.
When you view the lineup each week you wonder how some of the better players are left off the bench, but I would argue that the sum of this team is much greater than the individual parts. In 2019, we had talented players in Suzuki, Nakagawa, and Uejo. In 2020, it was Abe, Koya, Koizumi and Kawai. But this side could never put it all together on both ends of the pitch. Perhaps the end of 2020 – with Taguchi, Tanaka, Okazaki, and Chinen starting – was actually the beginning of what Higuchi had hoped to create all these years. And now we are seeing the benefits of playing as team rather than a group of talented individuals.
V-Varen Nagasaki: I am happy to welcome in Daniel, author of the Nagasaki Blue & Orange Blog, for this week’s preview. Daniel has been one of the best English bloggers out there these past few years and his weekly previews/reviews are a must follow. So there is no better source on the state of Nagasaki and what we can expect from them this round.
Q.Great to talk with you once again my friend. I know things haven’t gone according to plan so far, but I guess that comes with the territory when there are high expectations surrounding the team. Personally, I think Nagasaki are too good of a team to be down for to long, and I also fear them busting out in a big way this week, but it seems they were a bit frustrated in the attack last week against Ehime. What do you think is holding them back?
A. Thanks for having me again, Geoff! Especially in the game against Ehime and even in the win against Kanazawa, the poor usage with our chances was the biggest issue. Had V-Varen won this game 4-1, I do not think anyone could have said that it was undeserved because we really were dominant for most of the game and only allowed Ehime to have four shots on target, of which two came in the moment they scored their goal. I am quite confident that we can turn this problem around as there are many decent offensive players in the squad and some of them (Edigar Junio, Ibarbo, Yamazaki) have yet to make an appearance this season.
What may be the bigger issue, is some of the decisions made by the new manager, Takayuki Yoshida. His substitutions have had a rather negative impact in every game so far. Against Niigata, players were all over the place, but not in the positions in which they have played their best football in the past. Against Ehime, we needed to score another goal and the team kept on attacking, but from the moment Caio and Togashi were subbed, V-Varen lost their momentum. I also wasn’t a big fan of the formation he used in Niigata.
Q.We are not even remotely close to the ¼ mark of the season, but what is your impression of Nagasaki through their first 3 games?
A. Overall, quite positive. Defensively, I think we may be even better than last season. The team was a bit unlucky in the situations that lead to Niigata’s and Ehime’s goals and in general, our opponents have had very few decent chances. Offensively, we just need to start scoring. The chances have been there already, the players just need to take them.
Q.I see that the formation changes week-to-week under Yoshida and that Luan has played across 3-MF positions already. This has to be somewhat unsettling for the players in the squad. In your opinion, is Yoshida attempting to bend the squad around his preferred 3-4-2-1, or is he coming around to utilizing the players that he inherited in their natural positions?
A. The formations used against Kanazawa and Ehime were quite similar – with four defenders and one target man up front. Just the midfield was arranged differently. Against Niigata, however, V-Varen started with five defenders and that meant that Yoshida replaced an attacking player with a central defender. Defensively, it worked well considering that Niigata only had a couple of chances from open play and they were shots from about 15-20 meters out, but offensively, the team was not able to really bother Albirex. Also, V-Varen have been very good defensively with four defenders (only 39 goals conceded last season), so I did not think it was necessary to weaken the offense just to have an extra defender on the pitch. And it became worse with all the substitutions in this game.
Luan started on the left, then moved into the center and finished the game on the right. Otake has played in right midfield or behind the striker for most of his career, but when he came off the bench against Niigata, he played on the left. Sawada, a winger, is very good going one-on-one and can take on several defenders, but Yoshida brought him on as left back and had him sit back as protection in case Albirex would go on a counter attack. Akino is a defensive midfielder and he is the best passer on the squad and has initiated many attacks with long balls, but he finished the game as central defender. Meanwhile, Shinzato, a central defender, played most of the second half as defensive midfielder.
None of this made sense to me and I was shocked by how the manager, who already spent last season with the team and should know the players’ strengths, just shifted them back and forth and into (for them) untypical positions. I hope the Niigata game is a one-off because to me it was chaotic. In the end, it all goes back to the question of whether a managerial change was necessary or not and if different tactics are needed. The team collected 80 points last season and finished with a goal difference of +27. I understand that every manager wants to implement his own ideas, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! V-Varen have a very decent squad and almost all key players remained at the club. If Yoshida can get his tactics sorted, we have a very good chance for promotion.
Q.Nagasaki is still waiting on some reinforcements who haven’t entered the country yet correct? Where do you think they will fit in?
A. As of now, all players, who are under contract, are there, but Edigar Junio and Victor Ibarbo arrived in Nagasaki relatively late and they have not been included in a matchday squad so far. Once he is ready to go, Edigar Junio should be our first-choice striker and from the comments I saw on Twitter, many in our community expect him to score 15-20 goals. As for Ibarbo, it is complicated. He was supposed to be one of the best players in the league as well, but last season only got six starts. I can only guess that he did not put in enough work in training to deserve more playing time, but he still made quite an impact with one goal or assist every 116 minutes of playing time. If he is ready to go to work, he is also a candidate for a starting role, but I think that is a big “IF”.
The club is also still trying to sign a winger called Wellington Rato from Brazilian Serie A team Atletico Goianiense and their president said last week, that V-Varen had matched the transfer/loan fee requested by Atletico, but a few days later he said that the deal was off due to a disagreement regarding the payment, which V-Varen apparently requested to split into two instalments. A few months ago, V-Varen were also trying to sign Winger Jaroensak Wonggorn from Thai League team, Samut Prakan City, but the clubs could not come to an agreement. However, last week there was news about V-Varen and a few J1 clubs, including Kashima, still being interested in him.
Q. Who has been the best Nagasaki player to date?
A. First name that comes to mind is Cayman Togashi. He works relentlessly and got his first goal of the season against Ehime. The second player is Luan and I think he will also play a big role throughout the season. He accumulated six goals and three assists last year while only playing 1084 minutes. That means he contributed a goal or assist every 120 minutes of playing time. In my Season Preview I mentioned him as candidate for team MVP and I think his ambition needs to be a candidate for league MVP.
Q. For some unknown reason V-Varen Nagasaki always seem to be a team that FC Ryukyu play well against. We’ve traded 3-2 home wins in 2019, then drew during the monsoon last year, and then ended with the 1-0 win in Nagasaki that dented your promotion hopes last year. In our case, we sometimes (on rare occasion) play up to our competition, but mostly we play down to lower competition. What do you think is the case when Nagasaki face Ryukyu?
A. What I noticed is that six of the seven goals FC Ryukyu scored against us in the past two seasons came in the 69th minute or later. V-Varen are not a team that concedes particularly many goals late in games, but even when we were up 3:0 in the first meeting of 2019, you guys still scored two beautiful goals in the final ten minutes and gave us quite a scare. Last season, when many teams just sat back against V-Varen and waited for counter attacks, FC Ryukyu were willing to take a risk and attack and they rewarded themselves with four points. So, I think that FCR just have a stubbornness and mental strength to them, which has helped them to surprise V-Varen and capitalize on their mistakes in the past four meetings between the two.
Q. What are your thoughts/predictions for this week’s game?
A. Before I started working on this preview, my prediction was a 1:0 win to Nagasaki, but because of what I just wrote in my reply to the previous question, I feel like we are going to need a two-goal lead in order to finally get an away win against you and that will be difficult. I expect both teams to have 15-20 strong minutes in each half and it is probably going to end in a 1-1 draw.
It was great to reconnect Daniel, I wish the best for you and your team this year -just not this week- and look forward to seeing Nagasaki in the thick of the promotion race. Cheers!
Thank you, too, Geoff. I really enjoyed answering your questions and am looking forward to a decent game. Good luck to you guys for the rest of the season!
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Uesato/Koki/Ichimaru/Yu have to play one of their best defensive games of their life. Likelihood 2. V-Varen is extremely good at sucking defenders deep into their own box before finding an outlet pass to an unmarked player near the top. They also seem to have guys flying into the box from all directions when they are in possession at the opponent’s end. The outcome of this game hinges on our 2 central midfielders’ ability to track, and close down, those runs and crosses.
2. Be clinical in limited opportunities. Likelihood 4. Echoing what Daniel said about Nagasaki’s defense limiting their opponent’s scoring chances, Ryukyu will need to be lethal from limited chances. Ryukyu are not even close to maintaining the same levels of possession they enjoyed last year so quick counters, and finishing those counters, will be key. Hopefully all of those near misses the past few weeks will start to fall for Ryukyu.
5.Prediction
This is definitely a statement game for FC Ryukyu as well as a chance for V-Varen Nagasaki to right the ship. As Daniel mentioned, these two sides share a unique history especially when it comes to late goals scored by FC Ryukyu, but last week against Gunma was the first time all year that Ryukyu scored in the second half. Factoring in Daniel’s perspective for how Nagasaki are better defensively than last year, and limit scoring chances for their opponents, Ryukyu may have few scoring opportunities on Saturday. A 1-goal loss to Nagasaki would be considered respectable, any type of points earned by Ryukyu will fall into the green section of the Points over Expectation table I produce for each Match Report. I think Ryukyu put up a fight, but ultimately fall 2-1 to Nagasaki. Season Record 2-0-1.
6.Match Day 4 in J2
All times are Japan Standard Time
Another interesting round of fixtures with Niigata looking to extend their undefeated streak to 4 when they host Gunma, and then there are plenty of teams sitting just outside the top two who have a good shot at improving their position in the table based on their matchups this round.
Thank you to Johnny (gambaosakaenglish.blog) and Daniel for their contributions to the preview this week. Their input has been invaluable and if you are not already following these two, you need to be.
Pretender or Contender? That is what we want to know about Ryukyu. Time to go out there and make a statement.
Ryukyu were forced once more to play in some rather poor conditions, but it wasn’t rain that they were fighting this time, it was some strong wind. Both teams struggled with possession and chances yesterday as they tried to navigate the high winds from both ends of the pitch. However, it was Ryukyu who came out on top when they used the shifting winds to their advantage in the second half. Ryukyu have now opened the season with 3 wins in a row, and sit near the top of the J2 table for the first time since the start of 2019.
Match Highlights
Man of the Match
Reviewing the Keys to Victory
Talking Points
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion
1.Match Highlights
2.Man of the Match
Takuma Abe FWD FC Ryukyu: Abe scored his second goal in as many games and was the catalyst behind the second Ryukyu goal on Sunday. Abe was quiet in the first half while the Ryukyu attack was struggling for possession but asserted himself on his goal when he out hustled the Gunma defender to get to the loose ball and struck the ball on a bounce with his left foot. It was a great effort to get into a position to score and provide the spark that led to the FC Ryukyu breakthrough. He almost added a second from what would have been a spectacular goal when he changed directions mid air to get to a header that clanked off the post, but luckily fell right to the streaking Akamine who slotted home FC Ryukyu’s second goal.
3. Review of the Keys to Victoryfor FC Ryukyu
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu had to battle some poor wind conditions early on and were unable to get anything going in the first half. However, they did finish strong with 2 second half goals, also the first time they’ve scored in the second half of any game this season, to see out the win.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. Nope, but that is OK. It was our talisman and one of our best, Abe, who propelled this side to a victory.
4.Talking Points from Match Day 3
1. The wind was a major factor yesterday. Neither team really knew how to play under those conditions, either playing into or against the wind, which severely impacted both sides ability to generate or sustain any possession and attacks. Ryukyu made the right choice to play “with” the wind in the second half, though according to Higuchi, Gunma made it quite difficult on Ryukyu with their pressing play as Ryukyu couldn’t utilize the long ball in the prevailing winds to break that press.
You also saw the hesitation on the part of the goal keepers when balls were sent into the box. They were unable to fully commit to balls in the air, and there were plenty of examples where the flight path of the ball changed direction at the last second. Gunma nearly scored when a shot, that may have been sent high and wide under normal conditions, ended up becoming a very dangerous cross that Taguchi was able to get to the back post to stop. Abe’s goal can also be attributed to the wind as the Gunma keeper hesitated to come out, got a slight touch to the ball, but all that did was drop the ball into a dangerous area for Abe to pounce on. Granted, the darting runs into the box by both Ikeda and Kiyoatake probably kept the keeper back slightly, as well as disrupted his movement when he did decide to come off his line.
It was one of those games where Ryukyu came out on top of the first half by not conceding a goal and then played well enough through the elements in the second half to grab the win.
2. A change to the lineup. Yu Tomidokoro made his debut at CM in place of Koki Kazama, but he was replaced at half time by Koki. Not sure what to make of the move, and it was a difficult opening half for Ryukyu so we couldn’t really see anything from Yu. Assuming that Higuchi is looking at things from the perspective of, “if isn’t broke, don’t fix it,” then we should not expect any real changes to the starting 11 or reserves on Saturday.
5. Prediction
I predicted a 2-1 win for Ryukyu, and it it could have been had Gunma not hit the post in the first half. Still, a win nonetheless. Season Record 2-0-1.
6.Match Day 3 in J2
Niigata and Ryukyu remain unbeaten and atop of the J2 table for another week. Iwata grabbed their first win of 2021, Omiya and Kyoto was called off after some heavy rains (rescheduled for the 24th of March), and there were some surprising results from the newly promoted sides as well as Ehime FC against V-Varen Nagasaki. I think most of us expected the Yamagata and Yamaga, Verdy and Zelvia, matches to end in draws.
Job done, 9 points from 9 and now it is time to turn our attention to V-Varen Nagasaki this week. The fast start by Ryukyu mean they enjoy a nice 7-9 point cushion over the bottom four sides in the league. But anything could happen over the course of the next few weeks to shrink that total. Still, it is better to be in this position with these points compared to some of our opponents at the bottom.
FC Ryukyu didn’t win their third game last season until Match Day 12, and they never had a winning streak greater than 2 games in a row that year. You would have to go back to the start of the 2019 campaign to find a winning streak of greater than 3 games, and we all remember how FC Ryukyu started out with 4 wins from 4, followed by 2 draws, which also provided a nice buffer from relegation that year. I think we can also recall how we couldn’t buy a win on the road until the final month and half of that season, as well as the mid-season collapse that seems to be coming a regular occasion for Ryukyu.
Right now, all of us Ryukyu fans need to be enjoying the moment for what it is, a string of great results based mainly on good defense, goal keeping, and a bit of luck. That is not meant to take anything away from what the side has achieved, but we are not even at the quarter mark of the season and shouldn’t be focusing on anything other than survival at this point. But man it has been great and I hope the streak can continue on Saturday as well as through the following weeks.
FC Ryukyu marches North for the first time this season where they will take on Thespakusatsu Gunma. Gunma are a team they traded 1-0 away wins with last season, and who finished just 1 point behind FC Ryukyu in the standings. In their first meeting since FC Ryukyu lifted the J3 trophy against Gunma in 2018, FC Ryukyu beat Gunma 1-0 on Match Day 12 with a very uninspiring performance. Gunma returned the favor on Match Day 26 with an equally uninspiring effort to beat FC Ryukyu 1-0 in Okinawa. Whereas FC Ryukyu enter the match riding a 2-game win streak, Gunma are coming off a disappointing 0-0 draw on the road at SC Sagamihara. For Ryukyu, this is a very important match as the 3 points would push their point total to 9 right before a very tough stretch of games. For Gunma, their opening schedule of fixtures, and perceived potential points accumulated in those fixtures, is vital for their survival.
Weather Forecast & Match Info
Match Day 2 Recap
Team Previews
Thespakusatsu Gunma
FC Ryukyu
Keys to Victory
Prediction
Match Day 3 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information
Slightly colder than what we’ve been experiencing down here in Okinawa.
FC Ryukyu fans will be allowed to attend the match, and the link below contains the necessary information as far as hanging banners and match watching etiquette.
Thespakusatsu Gunma: Just like FC Ryukyu, Gunma have a favorable schedule to open the 2021 season. But Gunma’s schedule is far more front loaded than Ryukyu’s. Gunma started with the newly promoted J3 teams, Akita and Sagamihara in consecutive weeks earning 4 points; take on FC Ryukyu this week; face current leaders Niigata the following week, and then play Kitakyushu. Gunma’s only ‘tough’ opponents over the next month include Niigata and Nagasaki, as they have Ehime, Renofa and Fagiano to round out the fixture list through April. But you could even extended their fortunes into May with some of their opponents current form. All told, this is a crucial part of Gunma’s season that could very well determine their fate by seasons end.
Gunma need to embark on a ‘smash and grab’ campaign these first 3 months of the season to ensure their survival, though at least at this point in the season based on results and performance of some teams, Gunma have one of the best opening and closing schedules of any team trying to stave off relegation. Despite the favorable scheduling, Gunma have been unable to take full advantage of the fixture list. They defeated Akita at home 2-1 to open 2021, but then dropped a vital 2 points against Sagamihara when they limped to a 0-0 draw this past weekend.
Gunma started off fast against Akita with an opening goal from a CK in the 4th minute but then allowed Akita to dictate much of the game before making it all square with an early contender for goal of the year from Akita. Unfortunately for Akita they let Gunma hang around until Gunma went ahead for good in the 83rd minute after a nice set of passes opened up Akita at the back. Sagamihara put up a fight in their game with Gunma, came close on a few occasions, but so did Gunma when they hit the framework on multiple occasions. Neither side could crack the back line and the game ended in a draw with Gunma coming out on the losing end of the points dropped. A scene we were all to familiar with here at Ryukyu last year.
FC Ryukyu: Dressing the same 18 players from the previous week, FC Ryukyu jumped out to an early 2-0 lead over Renofa Yamaguchi before hanging on for a 2-1 win. There were some signs of life from the offense against Renofa compared to Match Day 1 against Jubilo where there was almost none, but we still need to see more from a team built on attacking football. Ryukyu enjoyed an uptick in possession last week, and it was good to see Abe get back on the scoresheet; Kiyotake and Koya becoming more involved in the attack; and seeing Keita Tanaka grab his second point – first goal – of the 2021 season. But there were plenty of missed chances, and close calls that prevented Ryukyu from pushing the score line even higher.
Ren Ikeda maintained his grip on the starting CAM role but we have to wonder when Kazaki Nakagawa will finally get a crack at the position. Ryukyu had acres of space to operate on the Renofa flanks, but lacked any serious thrust down the middle. I think this is where Nakagawa thrives, and is what we saw from Ryukyu last year when Koizumi was marshalling the attack. All we have seen to date from the club is highlights of Nakagawa looking fit in training videos, but he has yet to even dress in the reserves. I hope we didn’t acquire his services as a mere insurance policy in the event of injuries this year as he is to good of a player to be left off the squad.
Which brings us to the reserves that Higuchi chooses each match. Counting Abe, Ryukyu have dressed, and played, four forwards each week. And they all come on at roughly the same time, for the same exact players. We already know what Abe and Shinya Uehara bring to the attack as forwards, but we then ask Akamine and Shintaro to play out wide when they come on for Koya and Kiyotake. I have no idea what Ryukyu intend to do when the Thai and Vietnamese reinforcements arrive later this year as they will join fellow talented midfielders, Kazaki, Motegi, and Ramon, out in the cold.
The lone mid-field substitute utilized by Higuchi is Ichimaru who usually comes on late in games for either Uesato or Koki. This means that Yu Tomidokoro, and the single defensive player we dress, Makito Uehara, end up as unused subs. Perhaps there is some contractional obligations at work which could force FC Ryukyu to pay some players a higher wage based on minutes played, but I really have no clue.
The formula has worked twice so far so I wouldn’t expect any changes to lineup or reserves this week.
4. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Start Fast, Finish Stronger. Likelihood 3. There is no game to date that requires another fast start from FC Ryukyu. We cannot afford to let Gunma hang around in a close game as they can find ways to dig out results. So it is best to put this one away before things become too stressful near the end. But we are also playing on the road for the first time this year so anything could happen.
2. The unsung hero. Likelihood 4. It may not be the usual candidates who pull this one out for Ryukyu, so that means it may fall upon the shoulders of a non-prolific goal scorer. Koki banging in a few from set pieces, or Uesato, or even Ichimaru is a strong possibility. It could also come from set pieces by our defenders, either way I’ll take it. Someone needs to step up here because if they do, then we will start seeing the pieces of a complete team coming together, something we haven’t seen since 2018.
5.Prediction
This could be a potential trap game for FC Ryukyu as even though they look to be the better side, they have a tendency to play down to their opponent. FC Ryukyu improved their road win total from 2019 to 2020 (5 wins in 2019, 7 wins in 2020), but are a very streaky team when traveling. In 2019, they won their first road game but didn’t win on the road again until Match Day 35. In 2020, they needed 5 road games to achieve their first win. So if anything, this is the ideal first road test for FC Ryukyu. The away team has won 3 out of the last 4 matches, only 1 game has ever exceeded more than 2 goals scored, and the home team has been shutout on 3 occasions. It won’t be pretty, but I think FC Ryukyu can complete the trifecta with a 2-1 gritty win. Season Record 1-0-1.
No single fixture stands out this week with many teams still searching for answers, while others are looking to put some distance between themselves and their opponents at either end of the table. Unfortunately for any neutral fans, all the games kickoff at the exact same time on both days.
Well, here it is. A very important match for FC Ryukyu early on this season and one that we may look back come November as one that determined the fate of this club. Earning 9 points out of the gate is massive considering their upcoming fixtures. Aside from Ryukyu’s next 3 opponents – Nagasaki, JEF, and Omiya- Ryukyu then face Mito, Verdy, Zelvia and Kofu before finally getting to SC Sagamihara. We know Ryukyu have never earned a single point from either JEF or Kofu and were swept by Zelvia last season, meaning 3 points on Sunday will go a long way to future J2 football. Ryukyu showed signs of improvement in each of their last two games, can they continue that progress with a third win in a row over Gunma?
Another miserable day weather wise, but a successful one as far as FC Ryukyu are concerned. The rain was once again unrelenting, but FC Ryukyu came out on top in front of the 1,100 fans who braved the elements on Saturday. FC Ryukyu now sit on max points near the top of the table, but also 5 points clear of the drop zone. The win was also significant as it is a 6 point swing over one of the teams tipped for relegation.
FWD Takuma Abe FC Ryukyu: Abe accounted for nearly half of the Ryukyu shots yesterday and was involved in both of the goals. It was his shot that required the Renofa keeper to parry it out of the corner and drop it right at the feet of Tanaka.
3.Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Better Mid-Field Play: Likelihood 4. We certainly had more possession, which in turn meant they created more chances to score. Some of the players are still working out the kinks, but I think the side showed improvement from one game to the next.
2. Get Abe Firing: Likelihood 4. He was firing yesterday, accounting for one of the Ryukyu goals, and nearly bagged two more. He missed a wide open chance early in the second half, one he usually scores, and then smashed another off the post. It’s good that he was involved early and often as we need Abe firing on all cylinders in a few weeks.
4. Match Day 2 Talking Points
1. A tale of two halves. FC Ryukyu were the better side in the first half as they walked into halftime with a 2-0 lead. Renofa, were far better in the second half and were rewarded with the lone goal. Ryukyu couldn’t find the finishing touch in the later stages of the game, something that also occurred last week, but were able to hang on for the win. The game itself ended in a near 50/50 split as far as possession, chances created, and shots.
2. Kiyotake & Koya made an impact yesterday. Both Koya and Kiyotake picked out Abe amongst the sea of bodies inside the Renofa 18-yard box, which directly contributed to both of Ryukyu’s goals. Koya had a chance to add to his earlier assist when he was alone on the right side of the box, but the shot came from a tight angle and was saved by the keeper. The signs are encouraging, but I still feel they lack the thrust through the middle that a player like Nakagawa can provide.
3. Renofa’s goal was a case of Tanaka getting his feet crossed underneath him. You can see from the highlights that he was slightly unsure of where to go on the play. Either put in a challenge, or mark the run of another attacker. That momentary hesitation allowed the Renofa player to get in behind Tanaka, receive the through ball, then pick out a wide open Renofa player making the run-on goal leaving Taguchi no chance at getting to the shot.
4. The lineup remained unchanged. Ryukyu dressed the four forwards once more, and like last week, used the same four substitutes. I would expect more of the same against Gunma.
5. FC Ryukyu scored first which makes it 6 games in a row that they’ve scored first against Renofa. They also scored inside the first minute for the second straight week. The goal also marks the fourth occasion that FC Ryukyu have scored against Renofa inside the opening 15 minutes of any game.
5.Prediction
Tipped this one to end 3-1 in favor of FC Ryukyu so I’ll give myself credit for getting close to the mark. Season record 1-0-1.
6. Match Day 2 in J2
A very low scoring weekend as there were only 19 total goals scored this round. Albirex took the top slot with their win over Nagasaki, with Akita earning their first ever J2 victory. Jubilo responded from their loss to Ryukyu by suffering a heavy defeat at the hands of Zelvia. I think Giravanz committed another own-goal for the second game in a row, that made all the difference this past Saturday.
I spoke last week about wanting to track Ryukyu’s point total this year based on what I am calling “Points Over Expectation.” It is a completely subjective scaling system where I separate teams into two categories: Those that FC Ryukyu should beat, and those that they should not. The criteria includes, records against the opponent from the past two seasons, implied strength of the opponent (current position in the table and squad members) with home and away splits loosely factored in. The chart below will be included in each weekly Match Report for FC Ryukyu and has 3 categories.
1. Total points earned to date.
2. Points Over Expectation: This includes points earned from Wins and Draws against tougher opponents
3. Points Under Expectation: Tracks the points that were dropped due to Losses and Draws against perceived lesser opponents.
It is to early to get excited about promotion, but not to early to be concerned with relegation. You can say that Ryukyu are winning ugly, or that the team still has things to work out, but wins are wins, and oh so important at this part of the season.
While two wins from two is a great way to start the season, FC Ryukyu need to continue their fast start with a win over Thespakusatsu Gunma next round to put themselves in a great spot heading into a rough stretch of games featuring Nagasaki, Chiba and Omiya.
It is to early to say FC Ryukyu are off to a fast, but I would say they got off on the right foot. Their 1-0 win over Jubilo Iwata last week, while unexpected, has set FC Ryukyu up for what could be a nice start when considering their next two opponents, Renofa and Gunma. 9 points from 9 would be a very nice floor from the bottom, but first thing first, they need to get the job done against Renofa this Saturday.
Weather Forecast & Match Day Info
Match Day 1 Recap
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu
Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
Prediction
Match Day 2 in J2
Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Information from the Club
Though it says it will be overcast the whole match, there is a chance of rain. And if we learned anything from last week, even if there is a 1-2% chance of rain, be prepared for the worst. Bring the poncho, umbrellas, and plastic coverings to keep your stuff dry in the event it does rain on Saturday.
Match Day 2 Info: Normal stuff, but good info nonetheless. Also, there is no away fans allowed yet and the club made it a point to mention NOT WEARING VISITOR SUPPORT GOODS during the match. This was a change from last week when some fans were seen wearing Iwata kits and other items inside the AA section of the stadium. The club is probably looking to avoid any problems with the league so please comply, even if you’re from Yamaguchi and living in Okinawa.
FC Ryukyu: A couple of questions we were wondering about were answered this past Sunday when FC Ryukyu defeated Jubilo Iwata. First, Junto Taguchi has become the clear cut FC Ryukyu #1 GK. Second, Tetsuya Chinen looked good in place of Yong Jick at CB. That still leaves us wondering about the statuses of Nakagawa and Motegi, both healthy (?) scratches. Ikeda did get the first goal of the season for FC Ryukyu, but if you recall, Ikeda scored a few goals early in 2020 before embarking on a 32 game goalless streak where he was ultimately replaced by Yoshio Koizumi. I truly didn’t see enough of Kiyotake to make any judgement calls just yet, so that is something I will focus on this weekend as I thought Motegi may have earned his starting spot back at LM.
Then there was the decision to dress 4 Forwards instead of any of the abovementioned midfielders. Obviously everything worked out in the end, but I think FC Ryukyu will have a better chance at controlling the tempo of this game, so we may see a different lineup on Saturday. Then again, we may not as Higuchi likes to stick with players long after he should have swapped them out.
FC Ryukyu Injuries: None listed at the time of publication.
Renofa Yamaguchi FC: I am not sure there are to many teams in J2 that had a higher turnover of personnel than Renofa did this offseason. It looks like they brought in 19 new players, while clearing another 17 off their books. Perhaps this isn’t the same team as the past few seasons, but there is no telling that any of the changes in personnel have made an impact at this point in the season. Despite some of the recent woes by Renofa, they own a pretty decent record against FC Ryukyu the past 2 seasons. They have an even 2-1-2 record, that includes the 2019 Emperors Cup match, and one of those wins was a 4-1 blowout of Ryukyu last year. Here is another interesting fact, in the past 5 meetings between these two teams dating back to 2019, FC Ryukyu has scored first in every game. With 3 of those goals occurring inside the first 15 minutes (2′,7′ & 15′).
In their last game with Matsumoto, it was Renofa who got off to a fast start but failed to crack the goal despite Yuki Kasano finding himself alone with only the keeper to beat in the 80′ minute. Then there was the almost win on the last play of the match where it looked like Renofa had scored the winner, only for it to be ruled out on a hand ball. We should expect a fast start from both of these teams on Saturday, with Ryukyu a good bet to score first.
Renofa Yamaguchi FC Injuries: Starting attacking mid-fielder Yatsunori Shimaya injured some ligaments in his ankle and will be out 4 weeks.
4.Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Better Mid-Field Play: Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu couldn’t control the tempo of the game last week, and there were to many easy turnovers committed to prevent the offense from getting into a sort of rhythm. That needs to change this week.
2. Get Abe Firing: Likelihood 4. I know you’ve heard me say this before, but he is a player that can quickly change the fortunes of this team when he is firing on all cylinders. He couldn’t do much in last week’s game, but I can see that changing on Saturday.
5.Prediction
Season Record to Date: 0-0-1. I think FC Ryukyu come out firing, and continue to fire throughout the match. 3-1 win for FC Ryukyu on Saturday.
6.Match Day 2 in J2
There is an interesting mix of games this week featuring several matchups against the early season promotion candidates, and those seeking to avoid relegation. First up, and probably the matchup of the week is (1) Albirex Niigata hosting (7) V-Varen Nagasaki. Next we have (2) Tokyo Verdy hosting (9) Montedio Yamagata; then there is (3) Kyoto Sanga FC welcoming in (13) Matsumoto Yamaga FC. The (6) Omiya Ardija v (12) Ventforet Kofu should be a tightly contested affair, and then we all want to see how (18) Jubilo Iwata responds after their loss to FC Ryukyu when they face (11) FC Machida Zelvia at home.
(5) Thespakusatsu Gunma, like Ryukyu, will want to continue their fast start – as well as create a cushion between the bottom teams and themselves- when they travel to (20) SC Sagamihara. The other games with some early relegation implications are (22) Ehime FC hosting (10) JEF UTD Chiba; (21) Giravanz Kitakyushu v (16) Mito Hollyhock; and (19) Tochigi SC against (15) Blaublitz Akita.
It is to early to deem this game a must win, or even a should win game for FC Ryukyu, but it is a winnable game nonetheless. Three points on Saturday will go a long way come the end of the season and FC Ryukyu need this win with games against Nagasaki, JEF and Omiya on the horizon.
The J-League season kicked off in earnest this past weekend where FC Ryukyu hosted Jubilo Iwata in the opening fixture of 2021. Despite all the weather forecasts predicting a rather nice day to enjoy football, it was anything but with all the rain here in Okinawa. However, the wet weather didn’t dampen the spirits of the home crowd, or the team, as FC Ryukyu notched their first points, and first home win of the season by defeating Iwata 1-0 in front of 3,800 fans thanks to a Ren Ikeda first minute goal set up by none other than Keita Tanaka.
Junto Taguchi GK FC Ryukyu: The man was the sea wall that broke the unrelenting waves of the Iwata attack. 24 shots, 11 on target, and a little help from the framework. Junto continued the fine form he was in at the end of last season and despite my reservations, I think it is safe to say, he is the Ryukyu #1 GK moving forward.
3. Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Keep the foot on the Gas Pedal: Likelihood 3. Kind of hard to do this when they had less than 40% possession on the day. FC Ryukyu played on the back foot nearly all game.
2. Score from Set Pieces: Likelihood 2. Seeing how we created so few chances, from such little possession, there was only one clear cut chance to score from a CK, that Chinen sent wide.
4.Takeaways from Round 1
1. FC Ryukyu looked well organized at the back. This despite all the talk of attacking football by the manager. The combination of Okazaki and Chinen worked to perfection and Taguchi has probably earned DAZN first team honors this week with his performance. We will have to wait and see if this trend continues as I think when the game opens up to Ryukyu, so too will our defense to our opponents. The fact that Ryukyu were under constant pressure meant they had to compact their defense and play out from the back, but even then, the Ryukyu attackers didn’t help the cause with turnovers on their end that turned into quick counter attacks by Iwata.
2. Some of the questions surrounding the team were answered yesterday. First, Taguchi is the preferred #1 over Dany Carvajal at the moment. Second, and much to my dismay, Ikeda was given the nod over Nakagawa at CAM. We saw this early last year before Koizumi came on to usurp Ikeda, but Higuchi’s faith in Ikeda turned out to be correct as he was the lone goal scorer on the day. Third, Yong Jick was left out of the lineup and Chinen looked very good in his place. Finally, Higuchi dressed 3 reserve forwards in Uehara, Shintaro and Akamine. Considering the depth we have at MF, this was a bit of a shock. Maybe he expected to need the services of so many attacking players if Ryukyu were to chase the game, but that never happened.
3. We finally saw a Central Defender rise to meet a header on a CK. Chinen came close to pushing the score line to 2-0 on a set piece but it was sent wide. However, it was encouraging to see a central defender get involved on a limited number of set pieces, and I haven’t seen a header with that much aggression behind it in quite some time down here.
4. There were some missed chances that could’ve made all the difference yesterday. Ryukyu narrowly dodged some bullets when Iwata hit the woodwork, and Shintaro had a golden opportunity to seal the game late on for Ryukyu only to come up short. He took possession of the ball just inside the halfway line of Ryukyu, turned on the jets, and somehow made it all the way into the Iwata 18-yard box untouched and alone on goal. Unfortunately, the finish wasn’t nearly as spectacular as the setup, as the shot was stopped by the Iwata keeper. I guess we got a small glimpse into the streaky nature of this player.
5. Prediction
I thought this game would’ve ended 2-2, instead, it was 1-0 to FC Ryukyu. Season record 0-0-1.
6. Match Day 1 in J2
V-Varen Nagasaki asserted themselves early against Kanazawa, and then hung on late to win. Akita lost in their J2 debut match, as did Sagamihara, with the grudge match between Zelvia and Yamagata ending 1-1. Perhaps the warning signs are already there for Kitakyushu and Ehime as they were soundly beaten in their opening fixtures.
It is always nice getting that first win, that first home win, and it is even better when it is on opening day. Iwata was a far better side in the attack yesterday, and thanks to a bit of luck, were kept off the score sheet. Iwata were one of the teams I mentioned in an earlier blog that FC Ryukyu had failed to beat, and would need to beat, if they wished to achieve the lofty target of 80 points. Time will tell and I will keep a log of all the points over, and under, expectation that Ryukyu net in 2021.
The win on Sunday has really put FC Ryukyu in a nice spot to take 9 points from their first 3 matches of 2021. A fast start, similar to the one we saw from Ryukyu in 2019, could provide the same type of cushion from those teams facing relegation come the end of the season. If memory serves me, FC Ryukyu are now undefeated in games that are broadcast on the J-League International YouTube channel dating back to 2019 with a 3-1-0 record. Well, job done and now it is on to Renofa Yamaguchi this Saturday.
ryukyuarmy.com 