Intro
Welcome back! And it is really good to be back. The crazy 2020 season meant we had a shortened offseason compared to years past and I hope it finds you, your friends, and your loved ones, doing well in these difficult times. FC Ryukyu will kickoff the 2021 campaign against Jubilo Iwata, last season’s 6th place finisher, and a team who is looking to get back to the J1 after suffering relegation in 2019. For Ryukyu, it is a season filled with many questions that will hopefully be answered – in a positive way- in short order.
- Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from FC Ryukyu
- Review of Last Season’s Matches
- Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Jubilo Iwata
- Keys to Victory
- Match Prediction
- Round 1 in J2
- Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community
- Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from the Club
Not at a bad forecast for opening day. It maybe a little bit hotter than some of you are used at this time of the year so stay hydrated (Water, Orion, or other).
Match Day Info on FC Ryukyu’s website:http://fcryukyu.com/news/26776/
2. Review of Last Season’s Matches
These two sides played to a 2-2 draw in their first ever meeting. In that game, FC Ryukyu squandered the lead on two occasions with the Lukian goal at the 86′ proving to be the equalizer.
On MD 36, Jubilo Iwata blew FC Ryukyu away to the tune of a 3-0 score line.
3. Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: This is going to be a critical season for FC Ryukyu for a couple of reasons. Already operating on one of the lowest budgets in all of J2, Ryukyu did little to bolster a side that finished 16th in spite of their highest ever point total in J2. FC Ryukyu has committed to Higuchi, and If the team doesn’t finish higher than last year, or happens to drop completely out of J2, there will be no consolation in the firing of our manager. We all expected the departure of Yoshio Koizumi in the offseason, but the loss of Shuto Kawai was also a tough pill to swallow. Ryukyu first reached out to Fagiano Okayama for 3 replacements; FWDs Shintaro Shimizu and local boy Shingo Akamine, and they also added an attacking mid fielder in Koki Kiyotake. It has been said that Kiyotake has a penchant for the flair, but can also be quite streaky at times. Ryukyu then added Mizuki Ichimaru on a permanent (1 year) deal after his loan from Gamba Osaka last season. I think this was a good move for a side that is aging at CDM, but Ichimaru has yet to reach his full potential. Ryukyu next brought in 3 college players to go along with the return of Ramon from loan, and the re-signing of 22 players from last season’s squad.
Two of the biggest signings for the club were the return of Kazaki Nakagawa on loan from Kyoto Sanga FC, and Sittichok Paso from the Thai League side, Chonburi FC. We will need to wait a few weeks to see Paso at training, but the Nakagawa signing provides a bit of cover from the Koizumi departure, as well as a lot of hope for the Ryukyu attack. However, one area that FC Ryukyu failed to address, and which has been their achilles heel the past two seasons, is the defense. Ryukyu have been an attacking team ever since Kim Jong Song took over in 2016, but this season will largely be determined by the performance of their defenders.
It is really anyone’s guess as to who will comprise the starting 11 for Ryukyu on Sunday since no one was able to attend the preseason training matches to see first hand how this team was set up. Ryukyu may not possess worldly talent up front, but they have a lot of quality players to choose from. Last year’s leading goal scorer, Takuma Abe, will likely start at FWD, with some combination of Koya (last year’s leader in points), Nakagawa, Kiyotake, and Motegi joining him. It will be interesting to see how Motegi responds to a lost 2020 season from CV-19. Behind him, the only real question is whether or not Ichimaru did enough in the preseason to unseat either Koki Kazama or Kazumasa Uesato at CDM. Next, we will see who won the goal keeper competition between the incumbent, Dany Carvajal, and Junto Taguchi who seemed to be Higuchi’s top choice down the stretch last season with several strong performances.
What isn’t in question though, is who will be starting in defense for Ryukyu. Keita Tanaka, who reinvented himself as the starting right fullback/wingback, will be joined by Keigo Numata on the left. Then there is the likely pairing of Lee Yong Jick and Ryohei Okazaki at CB. Or what I like to call, FC Ryukyu’s ‘Critical Vulnerability.’ If teams are able to stifle the Ryukyu attack, better known as the ‘Center of Gravity’ from which this team derives all of their strength, then we are in for a bumpy ride. I may have been a bit harsh when judging Yong Jick last season, as he was played out of position from the start, and prone to making mistakes, but I have no idea what to say about Okazaki. Who, is also getting up there in age without asserting himself at this level.
I will close this section with a couple of quotes. The first is from Yasuhiro Higuchi from the recent event the team hosted for their sponsors and season ticket holders this past weekend. “I would like to stick to our style and produce results based on what I have accumulated so far. Defensive soccer does not suit the blue sea and blue sky of Okinawa. I want aggressive style to fascinate the viewers of soccer.” Obviously time will tell just how well this quote ages, but in the meantime….
“Damn the Torpedoes. Full Speed Ahead” – Vice Admiral David G. Farragut
Jubilo Iwata: Slightly challenging to write a preview for a team that has yet to take the field this season. In the three preseason games I could find for Iwata; they went a 0-2-1. They drew against both Azul Claro Numazu and Shimizu S-Pulse, with a 2-6 loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima mixed in the middle. They only managed 3 goals this preseason, with one coming from an U-18 player. While that may offer some hope for us Ryukyu fans heading into the opening round, I still think Iwata are to good to simply overlook.
They will be lead by new signing, Fabian Gonzalez, from the Colombian Top Tier where he bagged 2 goals and 3 assists. Gonzalez takes over for their striker from last season, Lukian, who seems to be dealing with the same herniated disc issue that saw him miss the final weeks of the 2020 season. Joining Gonzalez up top in Iwata’s 3-4-3 formation will be Koki Ogawa, and Kotaro Omori. Ogawa scored 9 goals and added 2 assists last season, with Omori adding in another 4 goals and 8 assists.
Behind the strike trio sits Masaya Matsumoto and Daiki Ogawa who combined for 3 goals and 6 assists. In the central midfield, Iwata will once again pair their captain, Kosuke Yamamoto, with J-League legend, Yasuhito Endo. Yamamoto scored one goal with four assists across 41 games last season, but it was Endo’s 2 goals and 2 assists in only 15 games for Iwata after coming over from Gamba Osaka, that was more impressive. There is little doubt about where the Iwata attack starts, and Endo in particular, could easily carve up the Ryukyu back line.
At the back it will be Hiroki Ito, and Norimichi Yamamoto, on the flanks, but I am not sure if Yasuyuki Konno will be asked to drop back into the central defender role from his central defensive mid field position. Perhaps this was on purpose last season with Iwata pushing 7 players into the attack with Konno left to cover the two CBs. Finally, in net, it will be Naoki Hatta who allowed 30 goals in his 27 appearances last season.
Besides Yamamoto and Gonzalez, Iwata brought in Yuki Otsu from Yokohama F Marinos; Yuto Suzuki from Kawasaki Frontale; Kato – a LB – from the Finnish leagues, Kanuma from SC Sagamihara, and a university signing. Otsu has never been a prolific scorer during his time in the J-league so perhaps he is better known for his set up play and defensive skills. However, Suzuki made the most of his time at Matsumoto Yamaga last season where he scored 3 goals and set up another 6. Perhaps Suzuki pushes Ogawa or Matsumoto from the starting 11 of Iwata.
4. Keys to Victory
For those of you that are new to the blog, I employ a scale that rates the chances FC Ryukyu will execute any of the keys to victory that I come up with. I usually take into account the recent performances by both sides heading into the match, and then put my own spin on things.
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Keep the foot on the Gas Pedal: Likelihood 3. Seeing how this is the opening fixture, and we have no data points as of yet, there are very few keys to victory that I can think of right now. FC Ryukyu will have to be one of the most aggressive, possession based, teams in the J2 in order to cover the back line and stave off relegation. We certainly have the horses to do it, but these guys have had little time together so we may not see the attack fully clicking for some time. Also, Higuchi needs to be extremely efficient this year when it comes to the timing of his substitutes. Something we haven’t always seen in the past.
2. Score from Set Pieces: Likelihood 2. This was an area where Ryukyu struggled last season as there were few goals from either Corner Kicks or direct Free Kicks. If FC Ryukyu are under a consistent barrage on Sunday, their only chance of stemming the tide will be from goals on set pieces. While it is likely that our CBs may account for some of the goals scored against Ryukyu on Sunday, it sure would be nice to see them involved in the scoring for Ryukyu this weekend.
5. Match Prediction
As some of you may know, I participate in a weekly pick em’ league over that Transfermarkt.com web site with fellow J-League fans. If you are interested in joining in, please contact @Tobias and he will get you set up. On that note, I do have a rather poor track record when it comes to predicting the outcome of games, and their associated scores. However, it is quite fun to make these weekly ‘dart throws.’
FC Ryukyu have the ability, albeit at times, to play really well against much stronger competition. I wish I could say that it is when they are at home, but that isn’t the case 100% of the time as sometimes they put in quality performances on the road, with a good bit of poor performances against lesser competition everywhere. I feel this match will end in a 2-2 draw as FC Ryukyu will be aided by it being the home opener, and Jubilo Iwata will also be learning to play together for the first time this season.
6. Round 1 in J2
Everyone’s predicted league winner, V-Varen Nagasaki, open the season at home against Zweigen Kanazawa, with fellow predicted front runners, Kyoto Sanga FC, traveling to newly promoted SC Sagamihara. Matsumoto Yamaga FC, who some may consider for a promotion slot, are also on the road facing Renofa Yamaguchi. Fellow promoted J3 side, Blaublitz Akita, will play their first game ever J2 game – after missing out on automatic promotion in 2017 due to a lack of a J2 license – when they travel Thespakusatsu Gunma. However, the game of this round will be FC Machida Zelvia, some people’s darkhorse team of 2021, hosting another potential promotion candidate, Montedio Yamagata, at the newly renovated Machida Gion Stadium.
Well, well, well. You all are in for a treat. FC Ryukyu and Jubilo Iwata are gifted the curtain raising broadcast of 2021 on the J-League International YouTube channel. Enjoy!
7. Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community
Per a new tradition started last year, I’d also like to include some of the other great content (in English) for the J-League. The @JTalkET podcast is THE SOURCE for all the goings on around the J2 & J3 leagues. It is in an invaluable resource for those of us whose first language isn’t Japanese. If J1 is more your speed, then the J-League English Podcast that started it all is what you want. Head over to the @JTalkPod and they’ll get your sorted. Available on Apple, Spotify, Podbean, and YouTube. They also have great perks if you are a Patreon.
@LiFJapan is your resource for everything ground hoping in Japan. https://www.youtube.com/c/LostinFootballJapan & lostinfootballjapan.com
@JSoccerMagagazine has over 25 years of writing about J-League football in English and produces a great reader available in hard or soft copy over at jsoccer.com. Also a purveyor of J-League kits at @JLeagueShirts.
@J_League_EN is the official English Twitter account of the J-League and provides the information regarding the free weekly broadcasts on YouTube. JLeagueInternationalYouTube.
The table below are some of the other great writers, blogs, podcasts and people of the J-League English language community.
8. Conclusion
Short of your team lifting the champions trophy at the end of the year, there isn’t a more exciting game than the home opener. Mainly because we have built up so much anticipation for the new season these past few weeks that is filled with hopes of our team winning it all, or at the very least, putting in a strong season to build upon. And we also all realize that these feelings could quickly dissipate in an abrupt manner by Golden Week here in Japan. But for now, the excitement for the FC Ryukyu opener is palpable, and I am really looking forward to this one. So sit back and enjoy the FC Ryukyu, or the team you support, opening weekend.
ryukyuarmy.com 