2021#FC琉球 #ジュビロ磐田

Intro

Welcome back! And it is really good to be back. The crazy 2020 season meant we had a shortened offseason compared to years past and I hope it finds you, your friends, and your loved ones, doing well in these difficult times. FC Ryukyu will kickoff the 2021 campaign against Jubilo Iwata, last season’s 6th place finisher, and a team who is looking to get back to the J1 after suffering relegation in 2019. For Ryukyu, it is a season filled with many questions that will hopefully be answered – in a positive way- in short order.

Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from FC Ryukyu
Review of Last Season’s Matches
Team Previews
- FC Ryukyu
- Jubilo Iwata
Keys to Victory
Match Prediction
Round 1 in J2
Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community
Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast & Match Day Info from the Club

Not at a bad forecast for opening day. It maybe a little bit hotter than some of you are used at this time of the year so stay hydrated (Water, Orion, or other).

Match Day Info on FC Ryukyu’s website:http://fcryukyu.com/news/26776/

2. Review of Last Season’s Matches

These two sides played to a 2-2 draw in their first ever meeting. In that game, FC Ryukyu squandered the lead on two occasions with the Lukian goal at the 86′ proving to be the equalizer.

On MD 36, Jubilo Iwata blew FC Ryukyu away to the tune of a 3-0 score line.

3. Team Previews

FC Ryukyu: This is going to be a critical season for FC Ryukyu for a couple of reasons. Already operating on one of the lowest budgets in all of J2, Ryukyu did little to bolster a side that finished 16th in spite of their highest ever point total in J2. FC Ryukyu has committed to Higuchi, and If the team doesn’t finish higher than last year, or happens to drop completely out of J2, there will be no consolation in the firing of our manager. We all expected the departure of Yoshio Koizumi in the offseason, but the loss of Shuto Kawai was also a tough pill to swallow. Ryukyu first reached out to Fagiano Okayama for 3 replacements; FWDs Shintaro Shimizu and local boy Shingo Akamine, and they also added an attacking mid fielder in Koki Kiyotake. It has been said that Kiyotake has a penchant for the flair, but can also be quite streaky at times. Ryukyu then added Mizuki Ichimaru on a permanent (1 year) deal after his loan from Gamba Osaka last season. I think this was a good move for a side that is aging at CDM, but Ichimaru has yet to reach his full potential. Ryukyu next brought in 3 college players to go along with the return of Ramon from loan, and the re-signing of 22 players from last season’s squad.

Two of the biggest signings for the club were the return of Kazaki Nakagawa on loan from Kyoto Sanga FC, and Sittichok Paso from the Thai League side, Chonburi FC. We will need to wait a few weeks to see Paso at training, but the Nakagawa signing provides a bit of cover from the Koizumi departure, as well as a lot of hope for the Ryukyu attack. However, one area that FC Ryukyu failed to address, and which has been their achilles heel the past two seasons, is the defense. Ryukyu have been an attacking team ever since Kim Jong Song took over in 2016, but this season will largely be determined by the performance of their defenders.

It is really anyone’s guess as to who will comprise the starting 11 for Ryukyu on Sunday since no one was able to attend the preseason training matches to see first hand how this team was set up. Ryukyu may not possess worldly talent up front, but they have a lot of quality players to choose from. Last year’s leading goal scorer, Takuma Abe, will likely start at FWD, with some combination of Koya (last year’s leader in points), Nakagawa, Kiyotake, and Motegi joining him. It will be interesting to see how Motegi responds to a lost 2020 season from CV-19. Behind him, the only real question is whether or not Ichimaru did enough in the preseason to unseat either Koki Kazama or Kazumasa Uesato at CDM. Next, we will see who won the goal keeper competition between the incumbent, Dany Carvajal, and Junto Taguchi who seemed to be Higuchi’s top choice down the stretch last season with several strong performances.

What isn’t in question though, is who will be starting in defense for Ryukyu. Keita Tanaka, who reinvented himself as the starting right fullback/wingback, will be joined by Keigo Numata on the left. Then there is the likely pairing of Lee Yong Jick and Ryohei Okazaki at CB. Or what I like to call, FC Ryukyu’s ‘Critical Vulnerability.’ If teams are able to stifle the Ryukyu attack, better known as the ‘Center of Gravity’ from which this team derives all of their strength, then we are in for a bumpy ride. I may have been a bit harsh when judging Yong Jick last season, as he was played out of position from the start, and prone to making mistakes, but I have no idea what to say about Okazaki. Who, is also getting up there in age without asserting himself at this level.

I will close this section with a couple of quotes. The first is from Yasuhiro Higuchi from the recent event the team hosted for their sponsors and season ticket holders this past weekend. “I would like to stick to our style and produce results based on what I have accumulated so far. Defensive soccer does not suit the blue sea and blue sky of Okinawa. I want aggressive style to fascinate the viewers of soccer.” Obviously time will tell just how well this quote ages, but in the meantime….

“Damn the Torpedoes. Full Speed Ahead” – Vice Admiral David G. Farragut

Jubilo Iwata: Slightly challenging to write a preview for a team that has yet to take the field this season. In the three preseason games I could find for Iwata; they went a 0-2-1. They drew against both Azul Claro Numazu and Shimizu S-Pulse, with a 2-6 loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima mixed in the middle. They only managed 3 goals this preseason, with one coming from an U-18 player. While that may offer some hope for us Ryukyu fans heading into the opening round, I still think Iwata are to good to simply overlook.

They will be lead by new signing, Fabian Gonzalez, from the Colombian Top Tier where he bagged 2 goals and 3 assists. Gonzalez takes over for their striker from last season, Lukian, who seems to be dealing with the same herniated disc issue that saw him miss the final weeks of the 2020 season. Joining Gonzalez up top in Iwata’s 3-4-3 formation will be Koki Ogawa, and Kotaro Omori. Ogawa scored 9 goals and added 2 assists last season, with Omori adding in another 4 goals and 8 assists.

Behind the strike trio sits Masaya Matsumoto and Daiki Ogawa who combined for 3 goals and 6 assists. In the central midfield, Iwata will once again pair their captain, Kosuke Yamamoto, with J-League legend, Yasuhito Endo. Yamamoto scored one goal with four assists across 41 games last season, but it was Endo’s 2 goals and 2 assists in only 15 games for Iwata after coming over from Gamba Osaka, that was more impressive. There is little doubt about where the Iwata attack starts, and Endo in particular, could easily carve up the Ryukyu back line.

At the back it will be Hiroki Ito, and Norimichi Yamamoto, on the flanks, but I am not sure if Yasuyuki Konno will be asked to drop back into the central defender role from his central defensive mid field position. Perhaps this was on purpose last season with Iwata pushing 7 players into the attack with Konno left to cover the two CBs. Finally, in net, it will be Naoki Hatta who allowed 30 goals in his 27 appearances last season.

Besides Yamamoto and Gonzalez, Iwata brought in Yuki Otsu from Yokohama F Marinos; Yuto Suzuki from Kawasaki Frontale; Kato – a LB – from the Finnish leagues, Kanuma from SC Sagamihara, and a university signing. Otsu has never been a prolific scorer during his time in the J-league so perhaps he is better known for his set up play and defensive skills. However, Suzuki made the most of his time at Matsumoto Yamaga last season where he scored 3 goals and set up another 6. Perhaps Suzuki pushes Ogawa or Matsumoto from the starting 11 of Iwata.

4. Keys to Victory

For those of you that are new to the blog, I employ a scale that rates the chances FC Ryukyu will execute any of the keys to victory that I come up with. I usually take into account the recent performances by both sides heading into the match, and then put my own spin on things.

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen

1. Keep the foot on the Gas Pedal: Likelihood 3. Seeing how this is the opening fixture, and we have no data points as of yet, there are very few keys to victory that I can think of right now. FC Ryukyu will have to be one of the most aggressive, possession based, teams in the J2 in order to cover the back line and stave off relegation. We certainly have the horses to do it, but these guys have had little time together so we may not see the attack fully clicking for some time. Also, Higuchi needs to be extremely efficient this year when it comes to the timing of his substitutes. Something we haven’t always seen in the past.

2. Score from Set Pieces: Likelihood 2. This was an area where Ryukyu struggled last season as there were few goals from either Corner Kicks or direct Free Kicks. If FC Ryukyu are under a consistent barrage on Sunday, their only chance of stemming the tide will be from goals on set pieces. While it is likely that our CBs may account for some of the goals scored against Ryukyu on Sunday, it sure would be nice to see them involved in the scoring for Ryukyu this weekend.

5. Match Prediction

As some of you may know, I participate in a weekly pick em’ league over that Transfermarkt.com web site with fellow J-League fans. If you are interested in joining in, please contact @Tobias and he will get you set up. On that note, I do have a rather poor track record when it comes to predicting the outcome of games, and their associated scores. However, it is quite fun to make these weekly ‘dart throws.’

FC Ryukyu have the ability, albeit at times, to play really well against much stronger competition. I wish I could say that it is when they are at home, but that isn’t the case 100% of the time as sometimes they put in quality performances on the road, with a good bit of poor performances against lesser competition everywhere. I feel this match will end in a 2-2 draw as FC Ryukyu will be aided by it being the home opener, and Jubilo Iwata will also be learning to play together for the first time this season.

6. Round 1 in J2

Source: https://www.transfermarkt.com/j-league-division-2/startseite/wettbewerb/JAP2

Everyone’s predicted league winner, V-Varen Nagasaki, open the season at home against Zweigen Kanazawa, with fellow predicted front runners, Kyoto Sanga FC, traveling to newly promoted SC Sagamihara. Matsumoto Yamaga FC, who some may consider for a promotion slot, are also on the road facing Renofa Yamaguchi. Fellow promoted J3 side, Blaublitz Akita, will play their first game ever J2 game – after missing out on automatic promotion in 2017 due to a lack of a J2 license – when they travel Thespakusatsu Gunma. However, the game of this round will be FC Machida Zelvia, some people’s darkhorse team of 2021, hosting another potential promotion candidate, Montedio Yamagata, at the newly renovated Machida Gion Stadium.

Well, well, well. You all are in for a treat. FC Ryukyu and Jubilo Iwata are gifted the curtain raising broadcast of 2021 on the J-League International YouTube channel. Enjoy!

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nJn0qASfBs

7. Invaluable Resources of the J-League English language community

Per a new tradition started last year, I’d also like to include some of the other great content (in English) for the J-League. The @JTalkET podcast is THE SOURCE for all the goings on around the J2 & J3 leagues. It is in an invaluable resource for those of us whose first language isn’t Japanese. If J1 is more your speed, then the J-League English Podcast that started it all is what you want. Head over to the @JTalkPod and they’ll get your sorted. Available on Apple, Spotify, Podbean, and YouTube. They also have great perks if you are a Patreon.

@LiFJapan is your resource for everything ground hoping in Japan. https://www.youtube.com/c/LostinFootballJapan & lostinfootballjapan.com

@JSoccerMagagazine has over 25 years of writing about J-League football in English and produces a great reader available in hard or soft copy over at jsoccer.com. Also a purveyor of J-League kits at @JLeagueShirts.

@J_League_EN is the official English Twitter account of the J-League and provides the information regarding the free weekly broadcasts on YouTube. JLeagueInternationalYouTube.

The table below are some of the other great writers, blogs, podcasts and people of the J-League English language community.

@V_Varen_En	@FCTokyoKaiGuys	@frontalerabbit
nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/	fctokyokaiguys.wordpress.com/	frontalerabbit.blogspot.com
@jleagueregista	@BlogGamba	@threearrowsSFC
jleagueregista.wordpress.com/	gambaosakaenglish.blog/	violetarrowshiroshima.com/
@TricolorePride	@kanazawadreamin	@vegalta_blog
@OtherFBallPod	@avispa_en_unoff	vegaltasendaienglishblog
The Other Football Podcast	@sushi_football	@GoGoOmiyaArdija
@FortressNozuta	@FRsoccerSam	@JTalkETJon
@seankyaroru	@aishiterutokyo	@mcintinhos

8. Conclusion

Short of your team lifting the champions trophy at the end of the year, there isn’t a more exciting game than the home opener. Mainly because we have built up so much anticipation for the new season these past few weeks that is filled with hopes of our team winning it all, or at the very least, putting in a strong season to build upon. And we also all realize that these feelings could quickly dissipate in an abrupt manner by Golden Week here in Japan. But for now, the excitement for the FC Ryukyu opener is palpable, and I am really looking forward to this one. So sit back and enjoy the FC Ryukyu, or the team you support, opening weekend.

Thus Endeth the 2021 Preseason #FC琉球

FC Ryukyu wrapped up their final preseason match this Sunday and will now transition into the 2021 regular season. This was the first time that fans were not allowed to attend any of the preseason matches or practices, and considering there were no match sheets produced for the team’s games, there are still plenty of unanswered questions for this squad.

I am not sure how many of you interpret results from the preseason, but I usually like to see the team win at least 1 game, and have some solid performances against tougher sides who traveled to Okinawa for their preseason camps. I also hate seeing any news pertaining to injuries to the squad and fortunately enough, there were no injury news releases this preseason. There are 6 days before the home opener so there is a chance that some press releases may trickle down, but it looks as if the side escaped any major injuries heading into the season.

Overall Preseason Record: 2W1D3L GF: 33 GA: 19

Training Match 1: 1/30/2021 FC Ryukyu (8) v (0) FC Ryukyu U-18s. Nothing needs to be said about this one.

Training Match 2: 2/04/2021 FC Ryukyu (0) v (3) Shonan Bellmare. In their first real test of the preseason, Ryukyu were blanked by the last placed team in J1 from 2020.

Training Match 3: 2/06/2021 FC Ryukyu (1) v (8) Nagoya Grampus. This game was broken up in to 3, 45 minute, periods. The opening period ended 1 all, before the wheels really fell off. There was also some chatter on Twitter that a majority of our U-18s played the final third period where they surrendered 5 of the 8 goals on the day.

Training Match 4: 02/10/2021 FC Ryukyu (3) v (3) Thespakusatsu Gunma. This one was broken up into 4 quarters of 45-35-45-35 minutes each. Ryukyu won the opening round 1-0; drew 0-0 in the second; lost the 3rd 0-2, and won the 4th 2-1. No idea when, or how long, many of our projected starters featured in this game, but not the greatest of results against a team who finished just 1 point behind us in 2020. At least Abe found the net for his second preseason goal, the first occurring against Nagoya, which means he is back to full health after last season’s mysterious ailment.

Training Match 5: 02/14/2021 FC Ryukyu (4) v (5) Vanraure Hachinohe. Three 45 minute periods where Ryukyu won the first period 1-0; lost the second 0-2; and drew 3 all in the third. Not a great result here either, but again, no way of knowing how the squad was set up.

Training Match 6: 2/21/2021 FC Ryukyu (17) v (0) Kaiho Bank SC. Sure, a total demolition of a Kyushu Soccer League side. Cannot, and should not, read anything into this game.

Goals Scored	Players
5	Ramon
3	Koya, Motegi, Ikeda, Hitomi, Akamine
2	Abe, Shintaro, Shinya Uehara
1	Koki, Nakagawa, Yu, Ichimaru, Yamashita, Torikai, Makito Uehara

Summary

Removing both the U-18 and Kaiho Bank SC games, this wasn’t a great set of results in a preseason for FC Ryukyu. They were basically outscored 8-19 in the 4 games that meant something. Maybe we didn’t want to show to much against a division rival in Gunma; maybe we rotated players regularly while they built up their match fitness; maybe Higuchi experimented with several sets of players in order to find the right combination heading into 2021; maybe none of this matters.

In spite of these results, we are still left wondering about some of the key position battles heading into the regular season. Did Dany Carvajal beat out Junto Taguchi to retain the #1 GK slot? Who has taken over for Koizumi at CAM? Is it Nakagawa, Kiyotake, or Ikeda? Has Motegi returned to full fitness and reclaimed the starting LM position? Will we see Ichimaru starting along side Koki each week, thus relegating the Captain Uesato to a reserve role? It is also hard to to tell, who among the squad, had really strong, or really weak, preseasons.

Other News from the Club

FC Ryukyu signed Sittichok Paso from the Thai League’s Chonburi football club. Paso has played in the J-League before when he was a teenager with Kagoshima United FC. In 14 games last season, he scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist out of the central attacking mid field role. He won’t be with the club for at least a few more weeks while he secures his work Visa as well as clears the country’s, and J-League CV-19 protocols. Even then, he has a long road ahead of him to playing time as FC Ryukyu have a wealth of talent in the CMF role and up top at FWD.

The club also announced a partnership with Saigon FC from the Vietnamese first division. They have a similar agreement in place with the Taiwan Premier league as laid out by the JLeague’s Asian strategy. I am not sure if we’ll see any player movement to FC Ryukyu this year, but at the very least, an increased exposure of the club in this country.

Finally, the team released their official LINE account that will provide updates, match day information, programs, free giveaways and stuff pertaining to COVID-19. If you wish to add them to your LINE contacts, click the link below to acquire the QR code. Keep in mind, it is in Japanese so you’ll need a translation tool if you wish to read the announcements in your native language.

http://fcryukyu.com/news/26680/

Well that about does it for the 2021 preseason for FC Ryukyu. I mentioned in the previous entry that Higuchi has laid down the challenge of achieving 80 points this season. While the league may seem wide open, I would rather see this side achieve slightly better results than last year that prevents them from becoming one of the four relegated teams. See you all later this week with the first match day preview of 2021.

FC Ryukyu 2021 Schedule Preview #FC琉球

This year’s schedule preview will look a little different compared to the past entries. While I will still provide my thoughts on the perceived toughest, and easiest, parts of the FC Ryukyu schedule, I will breakdown the schedule based on each opponent. Hopefully, there will be no interruptions to the schedule similar to what we all witnessed last season with COVID-19.

JUBILO IWATA: Match Day 1 (H) & 31 (A). Career Record: 0-1-1

FC Ryukyu open their season against an opponent they’ve only faced on 2 occasions during their history. In their first ever meeting, FC Ryukyu surrendered a 1 goal lead on two separate occasions which saw the match end in a 2-2 draw. Later that season, Ryukyu traveled to Iwata in the mid week and were blown out 3-0. Iwata has stabilized after the drop from J1 in 2020 and this will be a very tough opening test for Ryukyu.

RENOFA YAMAGUCHI FC: Match Day 2 (H) & 37 (A). Career Record: 3-1-5

The last place team of 2020 destroyed FC Ryukyu in their opening match 4-1, and that was after FC Ryukyu opened the scoring in the 7th minute. The return fixture in Okinawa saw Ryukyu eek out a 1-0 victory stemming from a divisive handball call that Koki Kazama converted for his first goal of the year. Renofa will once again be in the thick of the relegation battle with the Match Day 2 fixture probably allowing Ryukyu to recover from a rough opening weekend. In that same vein, Renofa will look to secure points against Ryukyu in the return leg as that will be one of their last, best, opportunities to notch points if they are indeed facing relegation.

THESPAKUSATSU GUNMA: Match Day 3 (A) & 30 (H). Career Record: 3-0-1

Ryukyu and Gunma split the series last year with each winning 1-0 away from home. Gunma finished just 1 point behind Ryukyu in the table last year and surprisingly, had a far better away record than at home, earning 30 of their 49 points on the road. The first match this season could see Ryukyu secure their second win of the season with the return fixture coming on the heels of two tough tests, and just prior to another three challenging fixtures for FC Ryukyu.

V-VAREN NAGASAKI: Match Day 4 (H) & 28 (A). Career Record: 5-1-6

Ryukyu’s toughest test to date will be their Match Day 4 test against everyone’s pick to earn promotion in 2021. Ryukyu earned a 1-1- draw in some of the poorest playing conditions imaginable in the opening round for these teams last year. And then Ryukyu went on to put a serious dent in Nagasaki’s promotion hopes late in the season when they won 1-0 on Match Day 34. In the past 2 seasons, FC Ryukyu have defeated Nagasaki twice, with each side trading 3-2 victories at their home stadium in 2019. For some reason, Nagasaki is one of the teams that Ryukyu always seem to play well against. They will need to continue that trend in 2021 if they wish to reach the lofty expectation of 80 points as laid down by Higuchi in his remarks last month.

JEF UNITED CHIBA: Match Day 5 (A) & 39 (H). Career Record: 0-0-5

Whereas Nagasaki are team that Ryukyu play tough, JEF is the exact polar opposite. Since Ryukyu’s rise to the J2 in 2019, they have failed to earn a single point off of JEF, and even more troublesome, they have yet to score a single goal against JEF. This, despite all the flak JEF receives for doing JEF stuff. In order for Ryukyu to reach 80 points, they will need to reverse this trend, but that seems highly unlikely as this team, more than any other in the league, has Ryukyu’s number.

OMIYA ARDIJA: Match Day 6 (H) & 23 (A). Career Record: 3-0-1

The Omiya game on Match Day 6 puts an end to an interesting run of 3 games for Ryukyu, as noted by their records against Nagasaki and JEF, as Omiya are team that Ryukyu light up for multiple goals every time they face each other. Ryukyu have scored no less than 2 goals in any game they’ve played against Omiya, and I think we all recall the 5-0, and 3-0, hammerings Ryukyu put on Omiya last season during internationally televised games on YouTube. I am not sure that trend can continue as Omiya parted ways with Manager Takuya Takagi in the offseason, the arbiter for so many of these destructions, and it is too fluky of a run of results to be sustainable. But you never know.

FC MITO HOLLYHOCK: Match Day 7 (A) & 25 (H). Career Record: 3-0-1

Mito are another team that FC Ryukyu own a favorable record against. Last season Ryukyu defeated Mito twice; a thrilling come from behind victory thanks to two late Shinya Uehara goals, and the ‘Ice Bowl’ of 2020 where Ryukyu won their last game of 2020 during the third ever coldest game on record for the J-league. Ryukyu have been quite adept at siphoning off talent from Mito these past few seasons, possibly due to the connections of their former team president, but there were no such moves this offseason. Mito scored the most goals in J2 last season, but they also surrendered the 4th most. I am not sure they did enough to address those issues at the back, but they certainly loaded up on attacking players to paper over those cracks.

TOKYO VERDY: Match Day 8 (H) & 40 (A), Career Record: 2-1-1

FC Ryukyu defeated Verdy twice last season, 1-0 & 4-0. The first game was a tense back and forth game that was put to bed from an Takuma Abe PK after a Verdy player lashed out with a kick to Uehara’s midsection as they lay on the ground in the 18-yard box. The return leg saw Koizumi (sheds a tear) score a brace. The only loss Ryukyu suffered at the hands of Verdy was a 5-1 beat down at home in 2019 where Verdy marked the special occasion with t-shirts commemorating Junki Koike’s hattrick. Maybe last year was a bit of payback for that nonsense. The two fixtures against Verdy will come at crucial times for FC Ryukyu as we could see them them trying to right the ship on Match Day 8 after a tough run of fixtures, with the return leg on MD 40 representing one of the last best chances for Ryukyu to secure points at the end of 2021 season.

FC MACHIDA ZELVIA: Match Day 9 (A) & 36 (H). Career Record: 4-4-10

Dating back to their time in the J3 in 2014, Ryukyu have only beat Zelvia once. And that was 7 seasons ago. I think most are tipping Zelvia as this years’ Darkhorse team, and I think FC Ryukyu will become privy to that fact on MD 9. Zelvia defeated Ryukyu twice last year with a 4-2 win at home, the only game that FC Ryukyu have scored more than 1 goal against Zelvia, but really shouldn’t count as one of the goals was an own goal by Machida; who, were already in cruise control after 4 first half goals. The latest insult to injury was the 1-0 defeat of Ryukyu at home on the final match of 2020. A positive result in the final leg on MD 36 may provide some relief in the face of a relegation battle, whereas an unfavorable result may push us farther down the table.

VENTFORET KOFU: Match Day 10 (H) & 33 (A). Career Record: 0-0-4

Yet another team that Ryukyu never fare well against. Stacking Zelvia and Kofu back-to-back for Ryukyu means we could see them lose two games in a row for the first time this year. In 2019, Ryukyu had their home undefeated streak snapped when Kofu came back from a 2 goal deficit to defeat Ryukyu 5-2. Kofu then defeated a depleted Ryukyu squad 2-0 to end the 2019 season. In 2020, Kofu beat Ryukyu 2-0, and 1-0, meaning Ryukyu have neve scored at the Yamanashi stadium. Let’s just hope Ryukyu aren’t desperate for points when MD 33 comes around as it seems highly unlikely that Ryukyu will even earn a draw away from home.

SC SAGAMIHARA: Match Day 11 (A) & 22 (H). Career Record: 5-6-3

Ryukyu’s first game against a promoted side, and an opponent they are very familiar with during their time together in J3. SC Sagamihara finished second in J3 in 2020 and the last time these two sides met was back in 2018. A year in which FC Ryukyu defeated Sagamihara 5-2, and 5-1. Obviously these are markedly different sides now, but the story, hopefully, should remain the same for Ryukyu in 2021. Their first test on MD 11 should provide a nice change of pace for Ryukyu, whereas the return fixture on MD 22 may add to a nice little run of positive results. In any event, FC Ryukyu will need to secure 6 points from Sagamihara to keep pace, as well as put some distance between them and the drop.

KYOTO SANGA FC: Match Day 12 (H) & 29 (A). Career Record: 1-1-3

Kyoto are another one of the promotion candidates in 2021 and it has been a mixed bag of results for Ryukyu when it comes to this opponent. In 2019, they fought hard to earn a draw before succumbing to a 3-0 loss in the second fixture. In 2020, they lost 1-0 on the road, but recovered nicely after surrendering an early goal in the return leg, by going on to win 2-1 for their first, and only, win against Kyoto. A favorable result in the first fixture would be great, as they face both Nagasaki and Kyoto in consecutive back-to-back weeks near the end of the season.

EHIME FC: Match Day 13 (A) & 34 (H). Career Record: 3-1-1

FC Ryukyu own a really good record against Ehime FC as the lone loss occurred during a 2011 Emperor’s Cup match. Since then, Ryukyu have gone on to remain undefeated against Ehime by sweeping the 2019 fixtures, and earning one win, and one draw in 2020. The win last season was to the tune of a 6-0 score line. Ehime are probably in a similar place, if not worse off, as last year and Ryukyu simply need to get the job done as they’ve done in the past. Ehime, is a strong contender to finish dead last in the J2 in 2021.

TOCHIGI SC: Match Day 14 (H) & 42 (A). Career Record: 3-5-6

Tochigi SC had a nice run in to end the 2020 campaign since they were one of the stingiest defenses in all of J2. But they’ve ceded some of that talent in the offseason and it will be interesting to see how they recover. In 2020, Ryukyu drew 2 all with Tochigi on MD 13, and it was an impressive draw considering that Tochigi only allowed their opponents to score more than 1 goal in any game just once up to that point. The 4-1 loss away at Tochigi was anything but impressive. Tochigi’s biggest problem last year was their lack of goals scored. They surrendered 39 goals, but only scored 41. I am not familiar with all the names they brought in this year to remedy those issues, but losing starting CB Tashiro to Sagan Tosu, will probably prevent Tochigi from being one of the better defensive sides in J2 this year. The last game of the season for Ryukyu away at Tochigi is likely an important one.

MONTEDIO YAMAGATA: Match Day 15 (H) & 26 (A). Career Record: 0-2-3

Things started out promising for Ryukyu against Yamagata in 2019 when they earned two draws, but 2020 was an unmitigated disaster. Ryukyu lost both their games against Montedio by a score line of 7 goals conceded, 1 goal scored (1-4 & 0-3). One nice thing about this year’s schedule is that Ryukyu will not have to face Yamagata in any adverse (cold) weather conditions based on the timing of these games. That is about the only positive spin I can put on this as Ryukyu have their work cut out for them if they wish to net anything positive from this year’s fixtures.

ALBIREX NIIGATA: Match Day 16 (A) & 41 (H). Career Record: 1-0-3

FC Ryukyu defeated Niigata for the first time in their history on MD 15, but since that time, Ryukyu have lost every game to Niigata, and have been shutout each time. Their first tilt on MD 16 will occur at the tail end of a brutal stretch of games for Ryukyu, whereas the return leg is Ryukyu’s final home game of 2021. Niigata will have another strong attack, and though I have some fond memories of Koji Suzuki when he was with Ryukyu in 2019, I also recall him tearing the back out of the Ryukyu nets when he played for Zelvia in the J3. Niigata may once again start strong and fade just after the halfway point, so hopefully Ryukyu can catch them on their downward spiral at the end of the season.

BLAUBLITZ AKITA: Match Day 17 (A) & 27 (H). Career Record: 10-6-10

FC Ryukyu has played no other team in the J-League more than Akita. Dating back to their time in the JFL, Akita notched 8 of their 10 total wins to date. However, they’ve only beaten FC Ryukyu twice in the last 6 seasons. While Akita were impressive during their J3 championship run, it is fair to wonder how much they lost in the offseason, as well as what they may have added. I think they’ll get a bit of the “new boy bounce” but may struggle as the season progresses.

GIRAVANZ KITAKYUSHU: Match Day 18 (H) & 24 (A). Career Record: 3-3-4

Giravanz were a bit of a surprise last season but have seen a massive talent drain in the 2021 offseason. Ryukyu got drilled 4-0 the first time these teams met on MD 3, and then both teams played to a 1-1 draw on MD 35. Since 2017, the series between these two teams is an even 2-2-2 split. Considering Giravanz’s recent departures, I think FC Ryukyu have a good chance at taking maximum points off this squad on both match days. The games surrounding each match against Giravanz next year are also very favorable so we could see an impressive run by Ryukyu when these two sides lock horns in 2021.

FAGIANO OKAYAMA: Match Day 19 (A) & 32 (H). Career Record: 1-2-3.

Whereas Kitakyushu were a bit of a surprise in 2020, Okayama were a bit of a disappointment. Okayama made a flurry of signings last offseason that included Satoki Uejo and Shuhei Tokumoto from FC Ryukyu. Two of our best players from 2019, and they still had prolific scorer, Lee Yong-Jae, on the books. But Okayama couldn’t tie it all together with all the injuries and ended up finishing as one of the lowest scoring teams of 2020. Ryukyu took advantage of their plight by defeating Fagiano 2-1 and the drawing 1-1. The first game for these two teams comes at the end of an easy (perceived) stretch of games for Ryukyu, with the second leg being sandwiched in between two tough fixtures for Ryukyu. I doubt that Fagiano will be as weak as they were in 2020, so these games will be a good indicator for just how far Ryukyu have come, or fallen.

MATSUMOTO YAMAGA FC: Match Day 20 (H) & 35 (A). Career Record: 3-0-3

Ryukyu did the double over Yamaga last season with 6-1, and 2-0, victories. Yamaga repaid the favor by plucking one of our better, and definitely fastest players, in Shuto Kawai. Though some teams can make a quick return to the top tier after relegation, others, like Yamaga, take a few seasons to get back to where they once were. Both of these match days fall in favorable spots for Ryukyu and I hope we can take advantage of the scheduling.

ZWEIGEN KANAZAWA: Match Day 21 (A) & 38 (H). Career Record: 5-3-7

Ryukyu have failed to defeat Zweigen in the J2, with their last victory dating back to 2014. In fact, a majority of Ryukyu’s wins over Zweigen occurred in the JFL. Zweigen finished one point behind Ryukyu and the teams shared a nearly identical record for goals scored/conceded last year. I think some out there believe Zweigen are in for a rough year, but seeing how we haven’t had much success as of late against them, I am not overly optimistic. Once more, the scheduling of these games is favorable for Ryukyu, but like so many other games against teams in and around Ryukyu in the table, it will be a measuring stick for success.

The Good: Match Days 21-25; Zweigen, Sagamihara, Omiya, Giravanz and Kitakyushu.

The Bad: Match Days 31-33; Jubilo, Fagiano and Kofu.

The Ugly: Match Days 28 & 29; On the road in consecutive weeks against Nagasaki and Kyoto.

Of Note

FC Ryukyu have 3 mid week games and 1 game on a Monday. They will be on the road for 3 out of the 4 of those games.
Ryukyu have 3 sets of back-to-back home, and back-to-back away games this year. However, two of the double stacked road games occur during a stretch where FC Ryukyu will be on the road for 5 out 7 weeks. Though the start of that run coincides with the Olympic break in July/August.
Ryukyu open with 3 home games in 5 matches, and end the season the same way.

The Drive to 80 points

Higuchi made a comment last month at the new season press conference where he said he wants this side to achieve 80 points this year. Obviously many teams declare their desire for promotion but never come remotely close. 80 points would be a 30 point increase from Ryukyu’s highest ever total in the J2. 80 points is what Nagasaki achieved last year, who just missed out on promotion, and we all know the quality that resides in that team. Do you think we can say the same about FC Ryukyu?

The lone marquee signing was bringing back Kazaki Nakagawa on loan from Kyoto, but we also saw another supremely talented player, Yoshio Koizumi, depart. I have little doubt that Ryukyu will be an all out attacking club, one that eschews defense for the sake of goals, but I am not sure we get to 80 without a huge reduction in goals conceded, and simultaneous uptick in matches won. Relying on two, aging, projects at CB, is not a recipe for success in my opinion.

The final thing we should consider is all the teams that FC Ryukyu have failed to beat during their time in the J2: Kofu, JEF, Zweigen, Yamagata, Zelvia, Kitakyushu, and Iwata. It would be these matches, along with not dropping points against perceived weaker teams, where Ryukyu would need to garner the 30 points they covet. No easy task as it would mean FC Ryukyu need to surpass their single season (2018) win total of 20, and be closer to 23/24 wins. An increase of roughly 9-10 wins from the past 2 seasons in the J2.

What do you think?