FC Ryukyu let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers this Sunday when they drew one all with Fagiano Okayama at home. FC Ryukyu looked the better side yesterday but could not get the offense firing on a day when Okayama offered nothing in the attack. The notion of cracking the top half of the table this year for FC Ryukyu is officially is dead and buried.
FC Ryukyu LB Keigo Numata: Numata provided the assist on the Hitomi goal but also sent a lovely cross into the box in the first half that Koya Kazama really should have buried for the early lead. Yes, he was also responsible for the handball that led to the PK for Okayama, but he recovered well to set up the tying goal.
Review of the Keys to Victory
1. Brace the left with Speed and Tenacity. Likelihood 3. Yes. Tanaka and Koya did a great job of limiting the impact of Uejo, and Tokumoto, which in turn isolated Yong Jae. Yong Jae was subbed off after 60 ‘ and he never really factored into the game. Uejo and Tokumoto each had one good look on net but that was about it. There were no dangerous crosses from Tokumoto with the lone goal for coming from a PK after a fluky handball by Numata in the box.
2. Pepper the net with shots. Likelihood 4. Yes. Ryukyu managed 11 shots yesterday but only 5 were on target. Once again they started fast in the first half but couldn’t find the breakthrough.
Takeaways from Match Day 39
1. It was encouraging to see FC Ryukyu cut down on the turnovers, but the ones they did commit, were nearly catastrophic. On roughly four occasions, an FC Ryukyu player passed the ball directly to one of the outfield players for Okayama. This led to several quick counters and one dangerous shot on goal but luckily, none of the turnovers actually resulted in a goal. Just elevated blood pressure. I would expect the turnovers to decline with the regular starters back in the lineup, but we cannot afford to live that dangerously in our last three games.
2. The attack was evenly distributed down the flanks. FC Ryukyu prefers to muster the attack down the left with Kawai and Numata, but by evenly spreading the attack down both sides, the offense looked much better compared to the game against Kanazawa. The game progressed in fits and spurts for the most part with FC Ryukyu controlling nearly 60% of the possession. The problem was they ended most drives with shots off target. Still, FC Ryukyu out shot Okayama by a 2 to 1 margin.
3. Shinji Ono had a clear chance to net his first ever FC Ryukyu goal, and he missed it. Maybe Ono is not known for his aerial prowess, but he was unmarked on a corner kick, and had a free header from just outside the 6-yard box. Unfortunately, it looks like he took his eyes off the ball at the last moment leading up to the header, buried his head, and pushed the shot wide of the mark. There are only two home games left this year and I think there will be a very concerted effort on the part of the coaching staff, and team, to get Shinji at least one goal.
A shocking loss by Tokushima Vortis to Mito Hollyhock means the leaders will need to wait at least one more week before they can secure promotion. It also opens the door for both Avispa Fukuoka and V-Varen Nagasaki to possibly catch Vortis if this turns out to be more than a momentary stumble by Tokushima. At nearly the exact moment when V-Varen Nagasaki scored the go ahead goal to bring them within 1 point of Avispa Fukuoka, Fukuoka equalized in their own game. Avispa battled back from a two goal deficit to earn a point against the plucky Zweigen Kanazawa for a huge result that allows them to maintain a two point lead heading into the final three games of 2020.
FC Ryukyu need six points from their remaining three games to equal their point total from 2019. A very doable prospect based on the strength of their final three opponents, but considering that they have failed to win at home in two consecutive games, it’s definitely not a given.
It was great to see Hitomi score his first ever goal for Ryukyu yesterday as it helps soften the blow from the loss of both Abe and Uehara just a little bit. Ryukyu will have a full week off before welcoming in 21st Ehime FC and hopefully the recent CV-19 case at the club is a mild one that can be contained without further spread.
In 2019, FC Ryukyu lost twice to Okayama, 0-1 & 0-2, with Lee Yong Jae scoring all 3 goals for Fagiano. This year it was FC Ryukyu getting the better of Okayama early when they won 2-1 at Fagiano on Match Day 9. Can FC Ryukyu return the favor from 2019 and do the double over Fagiano in 2020?
Match Day 9: FC Ryukyu 2-1 Fagiano Okayama
Much like last game, FC Ryukyu welcome in a side that haven’t had the best track record of late, but have played well against a much tougher opponent in the round prior to Ryukyu. Kanazawa couldn’t buy a goal on the road their past five games but after taking Vortis to the brink, they came to Okinawa and beat us 2-0. Well, Fagiano Okayama haven’t won in six games, but they nearly pulled off the win against Avispa Fukuoka earning a draw in the mid-week. Which begs the question, will this game turnout the same way?
Match Day 38 Highlights
FC Ryukyu vs Zweigen Kanazawa (0-2)
Fagiano Okayama vs Avispa Fukuoka (1-1)
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: Higuchi admitted after the Kanazawa game that there were far too many turnovers from his side and the bevy of changes to the lineup played it’s part in the disjointed attack. He also mentioned how susceptible FC Ryukyu are to surrendering goals. The turnovers are the easiest fix since the latter point requires a fundamental shift in our defensive philosophy to stem the influx of goals. And that likely won’t happen any time soon.
With relegation off the table this year, all we want is for this team to pull out some home wins at the end. But that comes at a cost. And you need to understand that each season may feel like a sprint, but staying power and advancing your status, like statehood, is a marathon and not a sprint. I want nothing more than to see FC Ryukyu destroy Okayama on Sunday, but the most important task at hand is developing our younger players along with assessing the reserves. That sucks, and it isn’t pleasant on the eyes, I know. But it will pay longer dividends than watching FC Ryukyu destroy a team with our first team starters who couldn’t pull this team out of 18th all season.
We already know the quality commodities in Carvajal, Kawai, Koya, Tanaka, and Koki. I purposely left Koizumi off that list because he will likely depart this club at the seasons end and we need to come to grips with that fact. Taguchi has proven himself a very capable back up goal keeper, and you don’t find that every day, so it would be great to retain his services for next year but he may have flashed enough to earn a shot at a starting job somewhere in J2 next season.
Abe, Uehara, Uesato, and Torikai are all over 32 years of age which means we will need to find suitable replacements for these players. Takuya Hitomi made his debut start at FWD last week and is one of those players who could benefit from more game time at the end the year. If we can retain Abe next season, Hitomi would do well to learn under the veteran striker. We really need a longer look at Hitomi in a more settled lineup to make any real assessment of his abilities, but that probably won’t happen this year.
Ren Ikeda has been asked to do a lot for the club this year. He started in the #10 role to open the year, and looked good, before ceding that spot to Koizumi. He then has been required to fill in at Striker as well as various mid-field positions. He is the most likely replacement for Koizumi when the latter departs, and though we have tinkered with both players in the lineup at the same time, they are identical players that need to see lots of the ball to be effective. So coexistence seems unfeasible.
Defensively we know what we have in Yong Jick and Fukui, and what we had in Okazaki in 2019, which leaves Suzuki and Chinen. Suzuki can make some poor decisions at times and is need of some better coaching to correct his flaws, but has at least put forth some effort this year. Chinen’s season has seen its share of ups and downs as well since he missed time with CV-19, and then briefly returned only to get injured. He has speed, which is nice in a CB, but needs to add some muscle to that frame to deal with the larger forwards in this league. So do all our defenders if we’re being honest. Makito Uehara has been the most exciting young prospect for Ryukyu this year, and I have always said that he is better suited in the CDM role with his size/speed combo than FB.
That leaves us with four players that the book is still out on. Ichimaru came to Ryukyu during a time when the team was desperate for healthy mid-fielders. But he hasn’t done much to impress and finds himself in a bit part role these days. He may not be that expensive to keep in 2021, but at this point, he may be taking away playing time from the other players we need to see more of since we have plenty of tape on Ichimaru. Motegi, like Chinen, had his season derailed by CV-19 and needs a quick injection of confidence. If he is fully recovered, a fact that no one may ever know when dealing with CV-19, then he needs to be in the lineup. He looked good to start the season but as failed to make the impact that many had hoped for when he signed from Mito this offseason.
I cannot foresee Yamaguchi as an everyday starter for the club. But his skills could be used as a second half sub that can stretch tired defenses with his speed. Like many of the players in the last section, he too dealt with a mid-season injury and drop in form. Out of all the players mentioned so far, Yamaguchi needs these last few games to show out. Which brings us to the final player that has been so much of an enigma this year, Felipe Tavares.
The RB has featured only once for FC Ryukyu and that was during the first game of the season against JEF. There has never been any word on any injury, or reasons as to why he hasn’t made the bench in the last 37 games. The only thing we have seen of him are the brief sightings at the end of games standing on the sidelines. Tavares more than held his own against J2 competition, in fact, he was an asset in both the attack and defense. He created at least seven chances from the RB spot as well as added a few shots on net in his lone game this year. He is as tall as some CBs in this league which means he can be a valuable weapon set pieces. Something we’ve struggled with this year. Look no further than his header from a corner kick that hit the crossbar that first game. Yet, Higuchi has not included him in the lineup. Granted, Tanaka’s emergence at RB has been a revelation, but certainly there is a place for Tavares on this team.
Fagiano Okayama: I am not quite sure of the circumstances surrounding the demise of Okayama this year. They started out fine, but then a 4 game winless streak shortly thereafter dropped them into the bottom half of the table, a position they were never able to recover from. There were some injuries to key players, most notably, Yong Jae who missed 12 games with an Achilles injury. Yong Jae has scored 6 goals this year, but is not in the same form he was in 2019 when he scored 18 goals and added 4 assists.
Some familiar names top the scoring leaders for Okayama in Satoki Uejo and Shuhei Tokumoto. Uejo has improved dramatically after his rocky start to the season and now leads the team in goals with Tokumoto leading the team in assists despite missing five games this season. Tokumoto has even worn the captain’s arm band for Okayama on four separate occasions this year.
As mentioned earlier, Okayama are winless in their past six games, going 0-3-3, with their last win occurring over a month ago. There were some tough games in that slate but after two consecutive losses to Matsumoto and Tochigi, Okayama looked much better in their draws with Kitakyushu and Fukuoka.
Okayama nearly pulled out the win against Kitakyushu as it was only the post that kept them from three points. They played Fukuoka tough and were pressing them the entire game for the winner, however, the shots they sent through the Avispa traffic were tracked the entire time by Serantes. It has been the play of Uejo and Yong Jae the past few rounds that has carried this team as Uejo has scored two goals in the past three games while Yong Jae bagged the equalizer against Fukuoka on Wednesday.
One thing to watch out for tomorrow is the set pieces from Okayama. Uejo can score from the freekick spot, as we’ve all seen before, and Yong Jae can create the separation and space to get on the end of crosses into the box.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Brace the left with Speed and Tenacity. Likelihood 3. Fagiano’s strength is down the left side of their attack with Tokumoto and Uejo. Luckily for us, that is probably our strongest side in defense (right side). The speed of Tanaka and Yamaguchi to recover in defense will help, as will their tenacity to dispose the attackers. Tanaka never gives up, and Yamaguchi has a lot to prove by playing hard tomorrow so if we can choke out the Okayama attack down the left, it will give our CB pairing a chance to reduce Yong Jae’s impact on the game.
2. Pepper the net with shots. Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu cannot afford another performance like the one against Kanazawa, so I would assume they will do more to get better shots on goal tomorrow. Though neither defense is particularly strong, Okayama defenders invite shots far too often which bodes well for us if we can get the attack rolling.
Match Prediction
I think the former FC Ryukyu boys make a triumphant return to Okinawa and help Fagiano Okayama to a comfortable 2-0 win.
Match Day 39 in J2
(1) Tokushima Vortis will look to close out one of the promotion slots this week when they travel to (12) Mito Hollyhock. A win secures them promotion, but a (2) Avispa Fukuoka loss to (15) Zweigen Kanazawa would give them the title. (3) V-Varen Nagasaki’s tough road continues when they host (7) Montedio Yamagata in a win or go home game.
I am not sure if this game will turn into some sort of shootout on Sunday, but I have been wrong before. FC Ryukyu will face a team for the second consecutive game that are buoyed with confidence after facing a tougher opponent in which they earned a favorable result. But, FC Ryukyu do play up (and down) to their competition so this game could go so many different ways tomorrow.
One thing is certain though, FC Ryukyu need to cut down on the turnovers and mental mistakes that plagued them during the last match. If they can move in space with minimal wasteful passes, we could see them get the win.
Disjointed, out of synch, and wasteful is the best way to describe the result from last night’s loss to Zweigen Kanazawa. FC Ryukyu had several chances to grab the early lead, but failed to do so. This allowed Kanazawa to take charge of the match early in the second half and grab the easy win.
Zweigen Kanazawa MF Raisei Shimazu. The guy scored a ridiculous goal last night, possibly a contender for goal of the year, and put this game out of reach for FC Ryukyu.
Review of the Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Possess and Press: Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu had the foot on the gas early but failed to get across the line. The possession rate was high, but so were the turnovers and missed opportunities. The turnovers in the second half really killed any forward momentum and prevented them from scoring.
2. Get Koya firing Again: Likelihood 4. Koya didn’t start, and when he came on as a sub, coupled with the aforementioned turnovers, he could not get into any rhythm.
Key Takeaways from the Match
1. Turnovers killed us last night. It was difficult to keep track of the number as there were so many of them. And they occurred at both ends of the pitch. The ones in the attacking area derailed many of our attacks and led to our players exerting more energy that necessary to defend the quick change of possession for Kanazawa. The ones in our end provided Kanazawa with very short counter attacks. FC Ryukyu were lucky to leave the first have level due to a poor turnover that gave Kanazawa a free look on goal with no defender in sight. It was only because of a mental error on the part of the second Kanazawa attacker that resulted in an offside call. The turnovers in the second half completely killed off any chance of equalizing the game.
2. A major contributing factor for the failure to score last night was the bevy of changes that Higuchi made within the FC Ryukyu starting 11. Still without the services of Takuma Abe and Shinya Uehara, Higuchi turned to Hitomi to lead the FC Ryukyu front line. Additionally, Yamaguchi made his first start in quite some time and Ichimaru started over Uesato in the CM. These three players have very little time to make their mark before the season ends while 2021 contracts hang in the balance. Therefore, you cannot fault these guys for trying to “shoot their shot,” but that led to the attack taking a very different look than weeks past.
Ichimaru had a rough night last night as he was a major contributor in the turnover category for this side. Yamaguchi came close to scoring twice, but was off the mark on both occasions. Hitomi had a great chance to score off a Koizumi pass, but the shot went high over the keeper. In the case of Yamaguchi and Hitomi, these can all be contributed to a lack of playing time. As far as Ichimaru is concerned, it was just one of those days where he was due for a bad game.
3. @Kanazawadreamin was right in regards to the fact that playing a much tougher opponent the game prior, and achieving some level of success, buoyed the confidence and play of Zweigen. Kanazawa had zero wins, only two goals scored, along with ten conceded, over their last five road games coming into last night. That meant, when they play a lesser opponent, and the level of push back is much less, then things will seem easier for them. I would expect much of the same this Sunday when Okayama come to Okinawa after drawing with Avispa.
4. The midfielders will be expected to lead this attack for the remainder of the year as there has been no word on the status of either Abe or Uehara. Without a true talisman up top, FC Ryukyu will need to grab early leads to see out wins. Hitomi will get a chance to cut his teeth these last few games so he will need to step up in a big way to help this side. The good news is, if he does, we could have a very young prospect up top for years to come. If he doesn’t, then FC Ryukyu have some tough questions to answer heading into 2021.
Tokushima are now one win away from securing promotion, and two wins away from winning the league. Avispa Fukuoka were unable to defeat Okayama but still have a four-point lead over Nagasaki who lost to Kyoto Sanga FC. Kyoto have pulled off quite a nice “hate and discontent” run here at the end as they have beat 2 of the top 3 sides in the table, and thus delayed the promotion race for a bit. Kyoto face Fukuoka in 10 days and a win there could really boost the chances of Nagasaki pulling off a comeback.
In a meaningless season for this team, the only thing that counts at the end is effort. The players did put forth a good amount of effort yesterday, but it wasn’t focused in the right areas so the end result was ugly. With four games remaining, all any of us want to see is for this team to end the season on a high note. That means nothing more than wins at home.
In the midst of a four game home stand, and coming off one of their most emphatic wins of the season, FC Ryukyu will try and keep the good times rolling when they face Zweigen Kanazawa on Match Day 38. Kanazawa got the better of FC Ryukyu the last time these two sides met thanks to a goal deep in stoppage time by Rodolfo.
The win came during one of Kanazawa’s best runs of five games unbeaten, whereas the loss was the third in a row for FC Ryukyu. Zweigen are a shell compared to the team that at one point registered 2 games with 5 goals scored, as they’ve are now one of the worst teams when it comes to conceding. However, FC Ryukyu are only slightly better off in the goals conceded category yet still trail Kanazawa by one total goal scored for the season.
FC Ryukyu: Easily their best month this season, FC Ryukyu notched four wins and one draw from the eight games in November. The four wins are impressive as it nearly matched their season win total (6) up to the start of that month. FC Ryukyu’s home form has also been quite good the past five rounds as they are undefeated, winning 4 out of 5, with the lone draw coming against Giravanz Kitakyushu.
The fact is FC Ryukyu navigated a very treacherous slate of games this past month that not only included games against 3 out of the top 4 sides in the table, but also 2 sets of back-to-back road games, with 3 midweek matches. The easing of the fixture list, coupled with 4 out of their remaining 5 games to be played at home, now puts FC Ryukyu in a position to make a nice end of season run.
So will it be Dany or will it be Taguchi this game? Dany seems to have lost his spot to the reserve keeper the past four games for no apparent reason. If there was an injury to Dany, we would never know it, but Higuchi seems to favor the “hot hand” approach as of late. Despite the fact that Taguchi, like Dany the game prior to his demotion, surrendered 3 goals yet Higuchi has stuck with him. You have to believe Dany is the long term answer at GK for FC Ryukyu, so it is best we get him back in there before the season comes to a close.
It will be some combination of Suzuki, Yong Jick, and Okazaki at CB moving forward as Fukui has made way for Okazaki in the reserves. I do not believe Chinen is fit enough to return but Okazaki’s inclusion, along with that of Shinji Ono, Kazuki Yamaguchi, and now Takuya Hitomi, has meant that promising fullback, Makito Uehara’s development, has taken a back seat. This is unfortunate as Uehara needs more games to develop before being thrust into the lineup when relegation is a real possibility in 2021.
We may classify Tanaka and Numata as defenders in the 4-2-3-1 formation that Higuchi deploys, but in all reality, they are wing backs who are more involved in the attack than defense. It works really well when FC Ryukyu controls large swaths of the game, aided by talent we possess in the mid-field, but leaves us very vulnerable at the back when their is an ill-timed, poorly executed challenge from one of our central defenders.
Koizumi was simply unstoppable this past game but I fear the knock he took to his right foot may prevent him from featuring this round. He could be replaced by either Ikeda or Yamaguchi, who will likely be flanked by Koya and Kawai. Uesato and Koki Kazama should take up their normal starting positions at CDM.
It would be nice to see Abe return to the lineup, which would allow Ren Ikeda to drop back to the CAM role in the event Koizumi is out, but if Abe and Shinya Uehara are not match fit, than FC Ryukyu do have a few options. They could start Ren or Hitomi at FWD, and then make a switch to Yamaguchi or Ono later on. Everyone would like to see Shinji Ono score his first ever goal for FC Ryukyu, and this game presents one of the best, last, chances to do just that.
Zweigen Kanazawa: We’ve been on a poor run for most of the last two months, with some occasional flashes of good play.
In the attack, we don’t really have any big worries as indicated by our goal scoring record. Mutsuki Kato is edging towards the Zweigen single-season goal record of 16 – currently sitting on 13 – and Towa Yamane has been doing quite well up front after missing the first half of the season. Rodolfo and Taiki Watanabe have formed a nice combination down the left side of our attack as well.
Our problems are mainly at the back. We have a terrible goals against record, and we conceded 4 goals in a game 4 times in the month of November. Center Back, Ryoga Ishio, has played every minute of every game and taken several knocks to the head along the way. He clearly needs a rest, despite being a very good defender, because his form has dropped off compared to the high standards he set early in the season.
The manager, Masaaki Yanagishita, seems to be trying out different combinations and players in different positions with an eye on next season. He seems to have a prominent role in mind for midfielder Toshiya Motozuka.
The main player to watch tomorrow is Yota Shimokawa, who has been by far our best player this season. He can play left, or right, wing/back, and has even had a go in the central midfield spots. He is deadly accurately with either foot on crosses, and also leads the team in assists. If he’s in the lineup tomorrow, expect most of our attacks to funnel through him.
Even though we lost 4-3 to Tokushima this past match. Our comeback from down 0-3, to level at 3-3, versus arguably the best side in J2 right now, provides some hope that we maybe able to end this current slump, and finish the season on a high note.
Thanks again to our man over at @Kanazawadreaminfor putting this Zweigen Kanazawa preview together for us on such short notice.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Possess and Press: Likelihood 4. Kanazawa are hemorrhaging goals at the moment whereas FC Ryukyu are coming off one of their largest wins to date. If FC Ryukyu can play their preferred, possession based style of football, they should have ample opportunities to score on Wednesday. The slight worry is that FC Ryukyu will be without their top playmakers in Koizumi and Abe. But they still have enough firepower in Koya, Kawai and Tanaka to light up the scoreboard.
2. Get Koya Firing Again. Likelihood 4. The veteran was in fine form just a few matches ago, but the combination of some easy misses and bad luck may have caused a slight drop in confidence. It is just one of things that players go through from time to time, and Koya is in the midst of an unlucky stretch right now. He missed a chance to put FC Ryukyu up early last week before having another shot saved from point blank range. He has formed a nice partnership with Keita Tanaka this year, and it was working well the last time these two sides met, so hopefully Tanaka can spring Koya for a goal in order regain some of the confidence that was lost the past few weeks.
Match Prediction
@Kanazawadreamin outlined the fact that Zweigen conceded 4 goals inside of 4 games this month. Maybe FC Ryukyu don’t have all the pieces to make this a convincing victory on Wednesday, but I think they have enough to push the score line to 2-1 for the win.
This pressure to close out the promotion race seems to be increasing each game. Match Day 38 presents the best, and possibly only, remaining chance for (2) Avispa Fukuoka and (3) V-Varen Nagasaki to make up some ground on leaders (1) Tokushima Vortis. Vortis host (4) Giravanz Kitakyushu in the premier matchup this round as both Fukuoka, traveling to (15) Fagiano Okayama, and Nagasaki, traveling to (10) Kyoto Sanga FC, have easier matchups on paper.
Nagasaki has the toughest remaining schedule of the top 3 as they will face Kyoto, Yamagata, Verdy, and Kofu before the final match day. Fukuoka has the easiest schedule of anyone and Vortis may have the league wrapped up by Match Day 40. While the final game looms large for both Avispa and Nagasaki, Vortis may rest some players ahead of their Emperor’s Cup match if they win the league, thus allowing Fukuoka a cake walk into the J1.
Just your typical, end of the year, teams at the bottom of the table, tilt tomorrow. Both sides have experienced their fair share of ups and downs this year while looking nearly equal on paper heading into this one. A slight advantage is afforded to FC Ryukyu as they are at home on the short week, but they could be devoid of much of their playmaking ability due to injury.
Still, being undefeated at home with 4 wins out of 5, and 10 goals scored compared to only 2 conceded in that time, it sure is good to be “home sweet home.”
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