“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.”
Intro
The final game of 2020 is upon us. It took 301 days from February 23rd to reach this point, but we’ve made it. This season has been unlike any other in history with the 4 month pause in play, COVID-19 protocols and suspensions, rescheduled games, games without fans, and the number of mid-week matches every team had to play to complete the fixture list. FC Ryukyu will close out their season this Sunday afternoon against FC Machida Zelvia, a team they share a long history with dating back to their time in the JFL, the J3, and now the J2.
FC Ryukyu were demolished 4-2 by FC Machida Zelvia the last time they met back in September. Zelvia stormed out of the gates with 4 first half goals before FC Ryukyu answered with an own goal, followed by their first actual goal in the 92′ minute. Ryukyu had no answer for Zelvia on a day when Kazumasa Uesato was asked to fill in at CB due to several injuries and CV-19 suspensions. Well, we are healthier at the back this time, and FC Ryukyu are on a bit of a hot streak at the moment.
Previous Match Highlights
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: Higuchi definitely wants to end the season with a win, which, would also extend the FC Ryukyu winning streak to three games in a row. FC Ryukyu have beaten Ehime FC and Mito Hollyhock by a score line of 8 goals scored, 0 goals conceded over their last 2 games and are surging at the moment. It is highly unlikely that we see the return of our leading scorer, Abe, or the inclusion of Makito Uehara in the lineup, but we will certainly see the curtain call for Shinji Ono in this game.
I would expect a very fast start for FC Ryukyu on Sunday as they will want to put themselves into a position to allow Shinji Ono the maximum amount of time to score his first goal for the club. Ideally, Ryukyu would like to have a two goal lead prior to the 60th minute to give Shinji at least 30 minutes, and several chances, to score in front of the home crowd.
We probably won’t see to much shake up to the FC Ryukyu lineup that has featured the last two games. There will be some combination of Yong Jick, Chinen, and Okazaki at CB; Numata and Tanaka in defense, with Tavares coming on later for Tanaka. In the CDM, we should see the return of Uesato to the captains role, and joining him should be Koki Kazama, who, is having some strong performances to close out the season.
The attacking four up front should be Kawai, Koizumi, Koya and Ikeda. Though we’d like to see how Hitomi would function with a strong supporting cast, the need to get out in front early may prevent Hitomi from starting. This brings us to the most tenuous position selection of recent weeks, goal keeper.
Dany Carvajal and Junto Taguchi have a 28/13 split for games started this year. In their last 5 starts; Dany has two wins, and three losses; while Taguchi has three wins, one draw, and one loss. When you peer into the numbers, Dany surrendered 6 goals in that span, but the team only scored 5 goals in his starts. Taguchi on the other hand, has surrendered 4 goals during a 13 goal outburst from Ryukyu. Taguchi has faced: Jubilo Iwata, Tokyo Verdy, Fagiano Okayama, Ehime FC, and Mito Hollyhock. While Dany has faced: Omiya Ardija, Ventforet Kofu, Renofa Yamaguchi, Avispa Fukuoka, and Zweigen Kanazawa. So the strength of opponents is definitely in favor of Taguchi
Both goalies have 5 shutouts this season with Dany averaging 1.57 goals against, and Taguchi at 1.36. Here is where it gets slightly interesting. In Dany’s starts, the team scores an average of 1.36 goals per game. For Taguchi, that number is 1.54. In Dany’s 28 starts, FC Ryukyu have been shut out 8 times. In Taguchi’s 13 starts, only 3 times. In fact, in games Taguchi started, the team has scored nearly half (20) of the goals they scored when Dany (38) started this season. I think luck plays a part when evaluating these two players as FC Ryukyu have faired far better offensively with Taguchi than Dany. Taguchi played well against Mito, but the schedule and results are weighted heavily in his favor.
Machida Zelvia: It must be tough to be an FC Machida Zelvia fan these days. In three of their past five games, they have surrendered three goals, and lost two games because of those leaks at the back.
Zelvia went 2-0-3 over their last five games. They started off with two straight defeats to Thespakusatsu Gunma and Montedio Yamagata, which represented two of the three games where Zelvia conceded at least three goals. Wild shooting, poor defending, and an a PK contributed to the Gunma loss. But against Yamagata, they started fast, took the lead twice, and then surrendered that lead in the 92′ and 94′ minute.
Machida followed up those two losses with consecutive 1-0 victories against Tokyo Verdy and Mito Hollyhock. The Verdy win came after a PK, and the Mito win was not all that inspiring so it was hard to draw anything from those games other than Zelvia responding to two heavy defeats.
The most recent game against Jubilo Iwata was a mirror image of the Yamagata game in that Zelvia would once again surrender a lead, and would do so in stoppage time. Machida at one point were up 2-0 before a 70′ goal provided the breakthrough for Iwata before a short corner with less than one minute left gave Iwata the victory.
For the season, Zelvia have been shut out 16 times, compared to 11 by FC Ryukyu. But unlike Ryukyu, Zelvia have only exceeded more than two goals scored in a game three times. One of those was against FC Ryukyu so there is that. Machida have also surrendered 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 6 games, as well as 8 games in total this season, which is good for about 20% of the time. Zelvia’s away record is not that great either as they have only won 4 games on the road all year, with the last win occurring back on Match Day 16 some three and half months ago.
The players to watch for tomorrow are also the top three scorers for Zelvia. Hirato, Ando, and Yoshio have all looked good in the last five games for Zelvia and represent the lion’s share of the team’s offense. Keeping them in check, something FC Ryukyu didn’t do the last time they played Zelvia, will be no easy task.
For more on FC Machida Zelvia, please see @fortressnuzama on Twitter.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu Shinji Ono Scoring His First Goal
I have no idea if this will be Shinji Ono’s last game for FC Ryukyu, or maybe ever, but we have to understand that the end is drawing near for this great player. There has been no bigger ambassador for the club, and what Shinji has done here in Okinawa to increase the exposure of FC Ryukyu, has been nothing short of remarkable. But there is something missing, something that can be replayed over, and over, and over again for news outlets and fans everywhere. And that is a goal.
If this truly is Shinji’s last game, then like all greats who exit the sport on their last game, there is the emotional pregame speech he will deliver to the team. In that speech he will thank the players, the staff, the coaches and applaud their efforts throughout his time at the club. He will tell some stories about his footballing life, and then make an impassioned plea to go out there and win one last time. I think, after hearing that speech, that every single player in that locker room will bust their gut to get the win, but more importantly, to get Shinji on the score sheet.
1. The lineup selection must be built to start fast, and finish stronger. Ren Ikeda will need to make the start at FWD, with Koizumi sitting behind him in the CAM. This combination, along with Koya and Kawai, can generate the lead we need – in a winning effort – to bring on Shinji. Make no mistake, a goal by Shinji in a losing effort will not be as memorable as one in which Ryukyu win. When it is time to make the substitutions, they need to be measured against the talent that can support Shinji. Koizumi needs to drop back behind Shinji and allow Ono to operate at the top of the box as the CAM. Hitomi is better at FWD than Ikeda as he knows where to be to support the attack by getting into the right positions so this will help as well. Kawai and Koya should only be subbed off if they are gassed, and in that event, Yamaguchi should come in on the left with his speed; while Tavares comes in for Koya; drops back to RB; and pushes Tanaka up top as he possesses a better touch in the attack.
2. Stretch Zelvia along the flanks and find the last pass back to Shinji. Koya and Tanaka have the best accuracy for picking out players. And Kawai can pull the defense apart with his speed, with Numata looking good on crosses these days. Koizumi can pick out anyone, with every type of pass, from anywhere on the pitch which means we should have to supporting cast to get Shinji open.
3. Feed him. Shinji cannot score if he is not given the chances. Don’t be dismayed by the shots he takes that are off target, or directly at the defense, as he needs to get a feel for the game and his shooting touch. He may have no more than 30 minutes to do this, so expect shots from every angle and distance imaginable.
Match Prediction
If FC Ryukyu can win this game by more than 2 goals, they will finish with a positive goal differential for the first time in 2 years, as well as for the first time in J2. In that case, 3-1 to FC Ryukyu with the third and final goal coming from Mr. Ono sounds oh so good.
Match Day 42 in J2
All the fixtures will kickoff at 1400 JST which is the norm for the final match day. The two promoted teams will square off with Tokushima expected to lift the J2 Champions Shield. That is, barring a miraculous turn of events requiring Avispa Fukuoka to overturn a 14 goal differential with a victory by 8 goals. Letting your opponent lift the title at your home ground should be enough motivation for Avispa to make this a game.
Elsewhere, there will be some jockeying for final positions inside the table. Most notably are the games featuring (5) Giravanz Kitakyushu and (9) Tochigi SC. If other results go in favor of these two teams, we could see both finish inside the top 6, with Giravanz possibly finishing 4th. Quite an impressive set of results for a newly promoted side, and a team that finished 20th in the table last year. But then again, one just has to recall Avispa Fukuoka’s meteoric rise from 16th in 2019 to 2nd in 2020.
Conclusion
Country roads take me home, to the place I belong.
Okinawa!
FC RYUKYU!!
Take me home!!!
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