Intro
In 2019, FC Ryukyu lost twice to Okayama, 0-1 & 0-2, with Lee Yong Jae scoring all 3 goals for Fagiano. This year it was FC Ryukyu getting the better of Okayama early when they won 2-1 at Fagiano on Match Day 9. Can FC Ryukyu return the favor from 2019 and do the double over Fagiano in 2020?
Much like last game, FC Ryukyu welcome in a side that haven’t had the best track record of late, but have played well against a much tougher opponent in the round prior to Ryukyu. Kanazawa couldn’t buy a goal on the road their past five games but after taking Vortis to the brink, they came to Okinawa and beat us 2-0. Well, Fagiano Okayama haven’t won in six games, but they nearly pulled off the win against Avispa Fukuoka earning a draw in the mid-week. Which begs the question, will this game turnout the same way?
Match Day 38 Highlights
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: Higuchi admitted after the Kanazawa game that there were far too many turnovers from his side and the bevy of changes to the lineup played it’s part in the disjointed attack. He also mentioned how susceptible FC Ryukyu are to surrendering goals. The turnovers are the easiest fix since the latter point requires a fundamental shift in our defensive philosophy to stem the influx of goals. And that likely won’t happen any time soon.
With relegation off the table this year, all we want is for this team to pull out some home wins at the end. But that comes at a cost. And you need to understand that each season may feel like a sprint, but staying power and advancing your status, like statehood, is a marathon and not a sprint. I want nothing more than to see FC Ryukyu destroy Okayama on Sunday, but the most important task at hand is developing our younger players along with assessing the reserves. That sucks, and it isn’t pleasant on the eyes, I know. But it will pay longer dividends than watching FC Ryukyu destroy a team with our first team starters who couldn’t pull this team out of 18th all season.
We already know the quality commodities in Carvajal, Kawai, Koya, Tanaka, and Koki. I purposely left Koizumi off that list because he will likely depart this club at the seasons end and we need to come to grips with that fact. Taguchi has proven himself a very capable back up goal keeper, and you don’t find that every day, so it would be great to retain his services for next year but he may have flashed enough to earn a shot at a starting job somewhere in J2 next season.
Abe, Uehara, Uesato, and Torikai are all over 32 years of age which means we will need to find suitable replacements for these players. Takuya Hitomi made his debut start at FWD last week and is one of those players who could benefit from more game time at the end the year. If we can retain Abe next season, Hitomi would do well to learn under the veteran striker. We really need a longer look at Hitomi in a more settled lineup to make any real assessment of his abilities, but that probably won’t happen this year.
Ren Ikeda has been asked to do a lot for the club this year. He started in the #10 role to open the year, and looked good, before ceding that spot to Koizumi. He then has been required to fill in at Striker as well as various mid-field positions. He is the most likely replacement for Koizumi when the latter departs, and though we have tinkered with both players in the lineup at the same time, they are identical players that need to see lots of the ball to be effective. So coexistence seems unfeasible.
Defensively we know what we have in Yong Jick and Fukui, and what we had in Okazaki in 2019, which leaves Suzuki and Chinen. Suzuki can make some poor decisions at times and is need of some better coaching to correct his flaws, but has at least put forth some effort this year. Chinen’s season has seen its share of ups and downs as well since he missed time with CV-19, and then briefly returned only to get injured. He has speed, which is nice in a CB, but needs to add some muscle to that frame to deal with the larger forwards in this league. So do all our defenders if we’re being honest. Makito Uehara has been the most exciting young prospect for Ryukyu this year, and I have always said that he is better suited in the CDM role with his size/speed combo than FB.
That leaves us with four players that the book is still out on. Ichimaru came to Ryukyu during a time when the team was desperate for healthy mid-fielders. But he hasn’t done much to impress and finds himself in a bit part role these days. He may not be that expensive to keep in 2021, but at this point, he may be taking away playing time from the other players we need to see more of since we have plenty of tape on Ichimaru. Motegi, like Chinen, had his season derailed by CV-19 and needs a quick injection of confidence. If he is fully recovered, a fact that no one may ever know when dealing with CV-19, then he needs to be in the lineup. He looked good to start the season but as failed to make the impact that many had hoped for when he signed from Mito this offseason.
I cannot foresee Yamaguchi as an everyday starter for the club. But his skills could be used as a second half sub that can stretch tired defenses with his speed. Like many of the players in the last section, he too dealt with a mid-season injury and drop in form. Out of all the players mentioned so far, Yamaguchi needs these last few games to show out. Which brings us to the final player that has been so much of an enigma this year, Felipe Tavares.
The RB has featured only once for FC Ryukyu and that was during the first game of the season against JEF. There has never been any word on any injury, or reasons as to why he hasn’t made the bench in the last 37 games. The only thing we have seen of him are the brief sightings at the end of games standing on the sidelines. Tavares more than held his own against J2 competition, in fact, he was an asset in both the attack and defense. He created at least seven chances from the RB spot as well as added a few shots on net in his lone game this year. He is as tall as some CBs in this league which means he can be a valuable weapon set pieces. Something we’ve struggled with this year. Look no further than his header from a corner kick that hit the crossbar that first game. Yet, Higuchi has not included him in the lineup. Granted, Tanaka’s emergence at RB has been a revelation, but certainly there is a place for Tavares on this team.
Fagiano Okayama: I am not quite sure of the circumstances surrounding the demise of Okayama this year. They started out fine, but then a 4 game winless streak shortly thereafter dropped them into the bottom half of the table, a position they were never able to recover from. There were some injuries to key players, most notably, Yong Jae who missed 12 games with an Achilles injury. Yong Jae has scored 6 goals this year, but is not in the same form he was in 2019 when he scored 18 goals and added 4 assists.
Some familiar names top the scoring leaders for Okayama in Satoki Uejo and Shuhei Tokumoto. Uejo has improved dramatically after his rocky start to the season and now leads the team in goals with Tokumoto leading the team in assists despite missing five games this season. Tokumoto has even worn the captain’s arm band for Okayama on four separate occasions this year.
As mentioned earlier, Okayama are winless in their past six games, going 0-3-3, with their last win occurring over a month ago. There were some tough games in that slate but after two consecutive losses to Matsumoto and Tochigi, Okayama looked much better in their draws with Kitakyushu and Fukuoka.
Okayama nearly pulled out the win against Kitakyushu as it was only the post that kept them from three points. They played Fukuoka tough and were pressing them the entire game for the winner, however, the shots they sent through the Avispa traffic were tracked the entire time by Serantes. It has been the play of Uejo and Yong Jae the past few rounds that has carried this team as Uejo has scored two goals in the past three games while Yong Jae bagged the equalizer against Fukuoka on Wednesday.
One thing to watch out for tomorrow is the set pieces from Okayama. Uejo can score from the freekick spot, as we’ve all seen before, and Yong Jae can create the separation and space to get on the end of crosses into the box.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Brace the left with Speed and Tenacity. Likelihood 3. Fagiano’s strength is down the left side of their attack with Tokumoto and Uejo. Luckily for us, that is probably our strongest side in defense (right side). The speed of Tanaka and Yamaguchi to recover in defense will help, as will their tenacity to dispose the attackers. Tanaka never gives up, and Yamaguchi has a lot to prove by playing hard tomorrow so if we can choke out the Okayama attack down the left, it will give our CB pairing a chance to reduce Yong Jae’s impact on the game.
2. Pepper the net with shots. Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu cannot afford another performance like the one against Kanazawa, so I would assume they will do more to get better shots on goal tomorrow. Though neither defense is particularly strong, Okayama defenders invite shots far too often which bodes well for us if we can get the attack rolling.
Match Prediction
I think the former FC Ryukyu boys make a triumphant return to Okinawa and help Fagiano Okayama to a comfortable 2-0 win.
Match Day 39 in J2
(1) Tokushima Vortis will look to close out one of the promotion slots this week when they travel to (12) Mito Hollyhock. A win secures them promotion, but a (2) Avispa Fukuoka loss to (15) Zweigen Kanazawa would give them the title. (3) V-Varen Nagasaki’s tough road continues when they host (7) Montedio Yamagata in a win or go home game.
Conclusion
I am not sure if this game will turn into some sort of shootout on Sunday, but I have been wrong before. FC Ryukyu will face a team for the second consecutive game that are buoyed with confidence after facing a tougher opponent in which they earned a favorable result. But, FC Ryukyu do play up (and down) to their competition so this game could go so many different ways tomorrow.
One thing is certain though, FC Ryukyu need to cut down on the turnovers and mental mistakes that plagued them during the last match. If they can move in space with minimal wasteful passes, we could see them get the win.
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