Intro
Get your drinks chilled and your snacks ready because this should be an exciting, fast paced, goal scoring match this Sunday. FC Ryukyu and Renofa Yamaguchi FC represent 2 of the 3 teams that have conceded at least 50 goals this season and in the previous 7 times these teams have faced each other since 2015, there have been 29 goals scored. In fact, there is only 1 match in which there was less than 3 total goals.
Match Day 31 Recap: FC Ryukyu vs Ventforet Kofu (0-1)
Match Day 31 Recap: Renofa Yamaguchi FC vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (1-1)
Team Previews
FC Ryukyu: Ryukyu sit 9 points and 4 wins away from matching their season total of 2019. You always want to see improvement from year to year, though sometimes it doesn’t happen, but for FC Ryukyu it is important that we make some headway heading into 2021. FC Ryukyu will need to win 4 out of their remaining 11 games to match that total from 2019 and there is no better way to start than by defeating an inferior opponent at home who has one of the worst away records in J2.
When FC Ryukyu were blanked by Kofu in the mid-week, FC Ryukyu had very little thrust and momentum until the last 15 minutes of the match after the introduction of some substitutes. Koizumi has only been used as a sub the past two matches and hopefully he cracks the starting 11 this round as he is our best playmaker in the squad. Abe could possibly make way for Uehara since he has started nearly every match for FC Ryukyu this year with his lone substitute appearance coming against V-Varen Nagasaki back in July. It makes the most sense to start Abe in an attempt to get out in front against Renofa as Ryukyu will face 2 of the top 3 sides after Renofa.
FC Ryukyu’s midfield has seen numerous changes to the starting 11 over the course of this season and the only one that seems to be in top form is Koya Kazama. He was left off the score sheet last round and will look to get back to his scoring ways this week. Ren Ikeda has been starting in place of Koizumi at CAM and it is probably time to reintroduce Koizumi to the starting lineup on Sunday to drive the attack. The same could be said about replacing Kawai with Motegi as Kawai has struggled to regain his 2019 form and we could use Motegi’s skill on more set pieces.
Uesato has been a constant in the CM this year with is usually partners of Koki Kazama or Mizuki Ichimaru but has also seen Koizumi in that role on occasion. If Ryukyu want to maximize their firepower on Sunday, Koizumi starting in place of either of Koki or Ichimaru, while leaving Ikeda up top, would be ideal. In fact, some of our best games featured that exact lineup.
In defense, it is likely we’ll see a pairing of Yong Jick with either Suzuki or Chinen, though Chinen didn’t make the trip to Kofu this past round. I could also see Numata returning to his starting LB role with Makito Uehara making the start at RB before making way for Tanaka in the second half.
Defense has been an issue for FC Ryukyu this year so all we can do now is simply hold on for the finish line before addressing the issue in the offseason winter transfer market.
Renofa Yamaguchi FC: Renofa have been hanging around the bottom of the table since Match Day 7 when they lost to Kitakyushu on the road 0-2. The best stretch of games this team experienced was between matches 20 and 24 when they went 3-1-1 with wins over Tokyo Verdy, JEF UTD Chiba, and Jubilo Iwata while drawing against Ehime FC. That stretch represents 1/3 of the total points accumulated this season for Renofa.
In the most recent stretch of games for Renofa, they have gone 1-1-3 with the lone victory coming in a very impressive performance against Kyoto Sanga FC on the road. But after that game, Renofa did not look like the same team that earned that win. Yamaguchi were outscored 9-2 and registered three straight losses to Tokushima Vortis, Mito Hollyhock, and Montedio Yamagata. They righted the ship slightly this past Wednesday when they drew with Gunma, but that was a game they should have won had it not been for a late goal (86′).
I am not quite sure which Renofa team we will see this Sunday as they can play well at times but for the most part, they are where they are in the table for a reason. Against teams around them, or near them, in the bottom of the J2 table, Renofa are 1-3-3 with the lone win coming against FC Ryukyu. But Yamaguchi are an even 1D-1L against Ehime FC, Gunma, and Matsumoto Yamaga FC in 2020.
The one positive for Renofa heading into Sunday is the fact that they possess a great record against FC Ryukyu. They have only lost once in their prior 7 matches dating back to 2015. While the games against Gunma and Matsumoto may provide a road map for how this game will shape up, I think FC Ryukyu will severely test the back line of Renofa.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
1. Speed. Likelihood 4. The Renofa back line was getting run ragged by the opposition in the 5 Renofa games that I watched. Either Renofa play a rather high back line or they simply lack the pace to keep up with the opposition’s forwards and attacking midfielders. You might think this is a potential break out spot for Kawai, but I think Abe is in the best spot to get around and past the Renofa defenders on quick breaks.
2. Exploit the open space in the Mid Field. Likelihood 4. FC Ryukyu can really control the pace of the game with large amounts of possession and with Renofa likely setting up in a 4-3-3, there will be some large gaps in the middle part of the field to exploit. If Ryukyu can quickly transition from defense into offense, and get the ball into their midfield playmakers, they could find some wide-open running lanes on Sunday. Koizumi would be the top choice here as his playmaking skills could really unlock the Renofa defense.
3. Defend the crosses into the box. Likelihood 2. Renofa are one of the league leaders when it comes to sending crosses into the box from the flanks. They seem to lack any midfield creativity and prefer to attack their opponents on short attacks on either side with a cross into Iury. FC Ryukyu need to prevent the Renofa wingers/outside midfielders from getting past them to choke out the Renofa offense. I fear that if Ryukyu do not do this successfully, Iury will find plenty of space in between our central defenders and have many clean looks on goal.
Match Day 32 Prediction
In their first meeting this season, FC Ryukyu drew first blood from an early goal by Motegi and then completely fell apart as Renofa scored four goals to win 4-1. Since neither side defends particularly well – Renofa dead last in goals allowed and FC Ryukyu are 3rd worst- means this should end with a large goal tally. I believe FC Ryukyu will take this one 4-2.
Match Day 32 in J2
(5) Albirex Niigata hosting (4) Giravanz Kitakyushu is the marquee match up with so much at stake for both sides. The next best game could be the (1) Tokushima Vortis vs (11) Tokyo Verdy with the international community enjoying the last game of this round.
Conclusion
The forecast for the game is calling for rain and thunderstorms all day so I am not sure if there will be lengthy delays due to weather. What I am sure of though, is that this were be several “Lightning Quick” moments by both sides on Sunday since neither defends well, and both teams have a penchant for taking numerous shots.
I truly believe that FC Ryukyu are the stronger side, but the past record of Renofa against Ryukyu indicates this is yet another team that FC Ryukyu will struggle with in any competition. In any event, tune in to the lone 1600 match of the day for the J-League on Sunday for what should be a back and forth game, weather permitting.
Come on Boys!
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