Intro
Here we are once again, nearly a full year removed, from FC Ryukyu trying to derail Ventforet Kofu’s promotion dreams once more. The last time FC Ryukyu tried to accomplish this feat, we had to do so with a severely depleted squad after having already secured our place in the table safe from relegation and ended up losing 2-0. But things are a little different these days. Kofu do not possess nearly the same firepower they had last year when Utaka was leading the line. FC Ryukyu have retained the services of many of their quality players, who for the most part, are relatively healthy and match fit. And then there is rigors of the reshuffling of the schedule due to CV19. I take no joy in playing the role of spoiler, as I’d much rather be looking down at teams in the table, but you make the best of what you got.
Match Day 30 Recap: Ventforet Kofu vs Tochigi SC (0-0)
Match Day 30 Recap: FC Ryukyu vs Omiya Ardija (3-0)
Team Previews
Ventforet Kofu: Kofu enter match day 31 having won 3 out of their previous 5 games that included victories over Kitakyushu, Tokushima and Zelvia. Their only loss came at the hands of Gunma while they played to a 0-0 draw against Tochigi SC this past weekend. Kofu are rounding into form at just the right time after having suffered a winless spell of 7 games during the months of September and October. They will need to continue their strong play as they currently sit 13 points outside of the top two promotion spots, but the upcoming schedule sets up well for Kofu.
Over the next four rounds, Kofu will play teams in the bottom half of the table starting with FC Ryukyu this Wednesday followed by Omiya, Mito and then Ehime before facing Iwata, Kyoto and Yamagata in quick succession this month. 12 points from these next four games would provide a massive boost to their promotion ambitions and set them up nicely to gain ground at the expense of those teams around them in the table later.
FC Ryukyu: Fresh off a 3-0 road victory over Omiya, FC Ryukyu will look to continue their momentum against 6th place Ventforet Kofu. In their previous 3 meetings with Kofu, FC Ryukyu have suffered three defeats while being outscored 9-3. While FC Ryukyu have got back to winning ways of late, 3 wins in their last 4 matches, Kofu will be a stiff test on a short week with a lot of travel mixed in for FC Ryukyu.
Abe continues his march to the J2 Golden boot with a pair of goals this past round brining his season total to 13. Good enough for 3rd overall and 6 behind leader Peter Utaka of Kyoto Sanga FC. Abe has been a rock for Ryukyu this season as he has featured in 28 out of the 30 games the club has played this year. He rarely seems to tire and continues to display his ability to create time and space for shots.
Koya Kazama also seems to be in good form by following up his goal against Kyoto Sanga FC with 2 assists against Omiya. Both Koya and Abe will need to be on point this week as Ryukyu have always had a difficult time penetrating the Kofu back line.
Outside of our top two scorers Abe and Koya, FC Ryukyu will need to energize the remaining mid-filed combinations of Ikeda, Kawai, Koizumi and Motegi. In the case of Motegi, he has yet to score or provide an assist, since his return from COVID-19. I hope he is no longer experiencing the effects of the disease but he has been used primarily as a substitute since his return in September. He could provide a much needed boost to the attack if/when he gets back to his pre-CV19 form.
Last week’s paring of Yong Jick and Suzuki at CB worked well enough to shut down the Omiya attack though Omiya was able to get several dangerous shots off through the middle of the defense last week. It was only due to the excellent play of Dany Carvajal that none of those shots found the back of the net.
Finally, Keita Tanaka was able to return to the bench this round as an unused substitute and in his place, Makito Uehara scored his first ever goal for the club. As I’ve said on several occasions, he is a raw talent that needs match experience and coaching in order to develop into a top player for this club. Personally, I feel he is better suited at CDM than RB with his size/speed combination.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle for it to happen
Let’s state the obvious first.
-Kofu’s strengths, both in the attack and defense, line up well with the weaknesses of FC Ryukyu.
1. Have some early Success. Likelihood 3. While a goal or two would be nice, success could come in the form of creating quality chances, challenging the Kofu goalie with well aimed shots, or stifling the Kofu attack. We’ve seen what happens to the Ryukyu attack if it cannot find any shooting lanes or generate any real pressure and momentum early. It simply stalls out. This maybe the only time that I advocate trying some shots from distance as Kofu can defend decently in and around their box. And no, I am not talking about the Yong Jick postage stamp shot from 50 yards out.
2. Ruffle the Feathers of Kofu. Likelihood 2. As far as I could tell in their highlights, Kofu plays with much more visible emotion than most sides. This could work in favor of Ryukyu if they are able to take advantage of any misfires and mistakes from Kofu. Remember, Kofu is in the midst of a promotion push whereas Ryukyu have nothing but pride left to play for in 2020. Though I wish the roles were reversed, it is what it is at this point. The easiest thing to do is to frustrate a side, who is under massive pressure to win, by getting under their skin. I’d deploy Chinen or Suzuki in place of Yong Jick to mark Dudu, and while not aiming to hurt the player, put in a few hard fouls to get him off his game. Even a Tanaka “professional foul” would work as Dudu seems like a player to react and lash out to that type of treatment. You could always swap out a defender later at the expense of disrupting the engine of the Kofu attack by getting him off his game.
3. Catch Kofu Napping. Likelihood 4. Kofu are one of those sides that seem to play down or up to the level of their competition. The most recent loss to Gunma indicates as much. FC Ryukyu must be clinical on whatever opportunities are afforded to them on Wednesday as this could force Kofu’s hand to press for the equalizer or winner late on and really open things up.
4. Score from Dead Ball Set Pieces. Likelihood 2. Kofu are very adept at seeing out low scoring affairs since they’ve only scored more than 2 goals this season on 4 occasions and yet sit 6th in the table. This game could very well be decided by a set piece and hopefully FC Ryukyu can convert one or two of them for goals.
Match Day 31 Prediction
There are a handful of teams in J2 that always seem to have FC Ryukyu’s number. In the 3 meetings with Kofu; FC Ryukyu surrendered a 2 goal lead for a 5-2 loss; closed out 2019 with a less than full squad resulting in a 2-0 loss; and scored their only goal against Kofu this year from the penalty spot. It’s hard to see FC Ryukyu getting over their woes against Kofu this year and this one is likely to end 2-0 in favor of the hosts.
Round 31 in J2
Tokushima Vortis hosting Jubilo highlights this round and it will also be the free YouTube broadcast on the J-League International YouTube channel.
Conclusion
There can be no doubt that Kofu are a stronger side compared to FC Ryukyu as their record and place in the table highlight that very point. When facing a strong side on the road, after a rigorous season filled with ridiculous amounts of travel in very short succession, the match is no longer a test of strength, but rather a test of wits.
So, how can FC Ryukyu overcome some of the issues that have tormented them in their previous three games against Kofu and achieve their first every victory over their opponent? Well for that, I’ll reference the Cooper Color Code of the Combat Mindset.
Both Ryukyu and Kofu will start out in the YELLOW state at kickoff but Ryukyu need to propel Kofu into the RED and then BLACK categories, skipping over ORANGE quickly, by thwarting Kofu’s attack and agitating some of their more emotional players. Think stuff like this doesn’t occur in sports? Just think about how well Diego Costa would frustrate many of the Arsenal players during his time at Chelsea. It emphasizes the importance of emotional intelligence, and is an area I think Ryukyu could exploit.
As I stated earlier, Kofu have it all to lose while FC Ryukyu do not have nearly as much at stake on Wednesday night. It is time that we play some “Head Games” with Kofu instead of trying to match them strength for strength.
Come on Boys!
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