Intro
And the beat goes on. We’ve now reached the 1/3 mark for the 18 games in 71 days for FC Ryukyu and this time it will be against Tochigi SC. Tochigi SC have turned things around defensively this year compared to 2019 as indicated by their impressive six shutouts to date.
For this installment we will be joined by the Unofficial Tochigi SC correspondent, @tsc_intl, who was kind enough to provide some insight into his club for this match up. Please enjoy.
- Weather Forecast
- Match Day 12 Recap: FC Ryukyu
- Match Day 12 Recap: Tochigi SC
- Team Previews &Injury Reports
- Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
- Match Day Prediction
- Round 13 in J2
- Conclusion
1. Weather Forecast
It is a real shame that the weather for the matches this year is so much better compared to 2019 and that no one can attend due to CV-19. Looks to be very favorable weather tomorrow.
2. Match Day 12 Recap: FC Ryukyu
3. Match Day 12 Recap: Tochigi SC
4. Team Previews & Injury Reports
FC Ryukyu. Over the last month, FC Ryukyu have won twice, drawn twice and lost twice. They have done well to stop the hemorrhaging at the back that plagued them for so much of the restart of this 2020 campaign. The defensive improvement has allowed them to come out on top of some low scoring affairs that includes shutting out their opponents twice during this time.
FC Ryukyu are not nearly as free scoring as they’ve been in the past and they have never really been known as a strong defensive side in any tier they’ve played in here in Japan so this is a nice surprise. Yet, these type of games should provide a nice launching pad for when the team starts clicking up top and begins scoring more goals.
Speaking of scoring, Takuma Abe is on a tear of late as he has scored 4 times in as many games to bring his total to 6 on the year. Good enough for joint 2nd in all of J2. That is the most goals Abe has scored since 2015 and he looks on pace to reach his highest ever total in J2, 18 goals. So long as he can stay healthy.
On the subject of health, FC Ryukyu are facing a selection crisis as they have several players injured, suspended due to CV-19, or just missing from the squad altogether. The last category is worrisome as Ryukyu have been forced to dress, and not use, several youth players from within their ranks. While Tanaka has been superb since making a switch to RB, Ryukyu are hurting for healthy midfielders these days and eventually Tanaka will need a break. Considering we have at least one -Torikai- if not two healthy RBs, Tavares being the other, these guys need to start seeing the field with a little more regularity so Tanaka can rest and provide relief to the rest of his mid field cohorts.
As evidenced by the last performance against Gunma, the players are beginning to break down physically with the amount of games played in such a short time span. The Ryukyu attack stalled out way more than it has the past few rounds and it will only continue to get worse until players can receive adequate rest and recuperation.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: Still no word on the availability of Chinen and Motegi as they recover from CV-19. And there is no word on the statuses of Koizumi, Uehara and Tavares. Yong Jick is flirting with a 1-game suspension if he picks up another Yellow Card so that is something to watch out for.
Tochigi SC. Tochigi this season is characterized by its high press. Though their ball possession rate is quite low, that does not mean they withdraw into their half throughout a game as they did in the previous season. Their quick transition, especially from offense to defense, is also is an improvement from last year. Both of the home-grown rookie wingers, Akimoto and Mori, are in good form, which is one of the driving forces for the team.
Key Numbers
39.7%: the lowest ball possession rate in the league.
Scored 7 goals in total: the fewest in the league.
Conceded 7 goals in total: also the fewest in the league
Issues
As the number of goals indicate, Tochigi needs to generate more scoring opportunities to achieve a higher place in the table. Though they have not let in that many goals, there is some room to improve in dealing with set pieces because the Tochigi last three conceded goals came from set pieces. At the same time, the manager Tasaka needs to give sufficient rest to each player which means he needs to have different options for the roster in this tightly contested match schedule.
Objectives
1. Stop Abe, the top scorer for FC Ryukyu.
2. Never give time and space to Uesato who can make crucial passes.
3. Keep an eye on Lee at set pieces.
Tochigi SC Injuries & Suspensions: Shiota (GK) & Osaki (LM).
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely that it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Do not over commit in the attack. Likelihood 3. FC Ryukyu are struggling to produce many goals these days and Tochigi are an excellent defensive side that can hit you on the counter with speed. How else can you explain their low goals scored, conceded, and possession rates and yet they still sit 8 points clear of Ryukyu. Since there is probably some growing frustration with our attack, coupled with some tired legs, there is a chance we throw everything at Tochigi tomorrow. If we make that mistake, we have seen Tochigi punish teams on the breakout.
2. Someone, anyone, create something in the attack. Likelihood 2. As I said, Tochigi are great at organizing their defense and there were very few times that I saw them not properly man marking inside and around the 18-yard box. I am not sure we have the energy to be attempting runs all game so we’ll need someone to win their 1v1 match ups to create some goal scoring chances.
3. Win, and capitalize on Set Pieces. Likelihood 1. FC Ryukyu have scored twice from some set pieces this year but they will need to finally score from a CK. It maybe the only way to either take the lead or claw back into a match against a team that has proven very adept at seeing out 1-0 leads to victory.
6. Match Day Prediction
Asking FC Ryukyu to score nearly one-third of all the goals Tochigi have conceded to date might be a bit much. But these are unprecedented times with so many fixtures that teams may not look like their normal selves. With that in mind, both @tsc_intl and myself feel that a 1-1 score line would be great for both sides.
7. Round 13 in J2
The mid-week slate is highlighted by (4) Omiya Ardija hosting (2) Giravanz Kitakyushu along with (1) V-Varen Nagasaki welcoming in (5) JEF Utd Chiba.
8. Conclusion
I’d like to thank @tsc_intl for that cracking insight and analysis into Tochigi SC. It is always enjoyable to co-author these previews from time to time as they provide richer content from the oppositions view point.
In closing, a recent tweet by Koya Kazama really sums up the mindset of the players and staff these days for FC Ryukyu. Basically, “we’re all fatigued, but we will endure, and let’s enjoy the next tough match.”
Question is; Are you Tuff Enuff?
ryukyuarmy.com 