Intro
What fun times we’ve had so far! Near misses and blow out losses. That is how I would sum up both sides performance over the past 3 weeks. Both sides are win less since the restart with Renofa having surrendered 11 goals compared to FC Ryukyu’s 9. Renofa has scored twice as many goals, while facing similar type of opponents as FC Ryukyu, so both sides will be looking to end their win less drought come Saturday. The question becomes, who wants it more?
- Weather Report
- Match Day 5 Review: FC Ryukyu
- Match Day 5 Review: Renofa Yamaguchi
- Team Previews & Injury Report
- Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
- Match Day 6 Prediction
- Around J2 on Match Day 6
- Conclusion
1. Weather Report
Another wet forecast is in the offering for this match.
2. Match Day 5 Review: FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu earned a draw against V-Varen Nagasaki this past Wednesday. Watch the video clip and then read my review of the match.
3. Match Day 5 Review: Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi were decimated 4-0 by Tokushima Vortis mid-week.
4. Team Previews & Injury Report
Renofa Yamaguchi
FC Ryukyu got the better of Renofa last season as they drew with them once, and defeated them on a beautifully taken shot by Kawai in the return leg. Renofa did beat FCR in the Emperor’s Cup that year but neither sides fielded their top team so I am not counting it. As far as this year is concerned, Renofa are coming off three straight losses to Vortis, Iwata, and Ehime. In those three games they have been outscored 9-1.
That is very different from how they started out this season. They defeated Kyoto 1-0 at home in February and then drew with Okayama at the restart. Renofa looked very spry in those games and maybe the long layoff between matches is the reason why.
On paper, and to the naked eye, there is not much difference between these two teams. Both are plagued by the same problems in defense; both have faced a very tough slate of games of late; and both have a poor goal difference. I said the same exact words heading into the Kitakyushu game and we all know how that turned out, so this doesn’t really buoy my confidence.
Renofa, like Ryukyu, are targeting this game for a win. And why not? FCR are currently at the bottom of the table and struggling for goals. However, as I’ll mention in the next section, Renofa may be without two of their better players on Saturday which could provide a slight edge to FC Ryukyu.
That is not to say they still don’t have talent that can score as Kazuma Takai is very capable of scorning from anywhere on the pitch. Whereas Ryukyu look to be turning things around, in the case of Renofa, they seem to be headed in the opposite direction. Renofa looked flatfooted against both Vortis and Ehime and though they were able to score against Jubilo, they allowed a considerable amount of free looks on net. The same thing we’ve been railing about when it comes to closing down attackers and clearing dead ball kicks in Okinawa applies directly to Renofa.
As I said, if I showed an outsider these highlights in black and white, they probably couldn’t tell the difference between these two squads with their past results and performances.
Renofa Yamaguchi Injuries & Suspensions: FWD Iuri. Not many details on what is afflicting him, he is just listed as injured. This is kind of big news as he is their leading goal scorer with 2 goals, and has accounted for half their goals scored this season. Maybe that is why the Renofa attack dried up after he was subbed off in the 35th minute mid-week?
There is also a possibility that starting MF, Takahiro Ko, will be sidelined after he too was subbed off early in the Vortis match. He took a nasty knock from a rash challenge and wasn’t able to continue despite trying to gut it out for a few minutes.
FC Ryukyu
This match could be considered a little break in the schedule for FC Ryukyu if you simply looked at the standings. However, nothing can be taken for granted these days in Okinawa as FC Ryukyu are still in search of their first win. As I mentioned in the match day 5 review, FC Ryukyu are also looking for their first shutout and first multiple goal game this year. There is a possibility that it could happen on Saturday evening but FCR haven’t proven that they are capable of either at this point.
The low point for FC Ryukyu this season came after the 3-1 loss to Tokushima Vortis last weekend as it was on the heels of a 4-0 loss to then, bottom side Giravanz Kitakyushu (21 at the time) 4-0. A change had to be made and Higuchi did just that with six changes to last weeks lineup. The question is, did it work?
I would venture to say that it did. The offense looked much better and the defense only surrendered a goal from a set piece. Thanks in large part to the play of Keita Tanaka at RB, Daisei Suzuki at CB, Koizumi at CB and the re-introduction of Ren Ikeda to the lineup, FC Ryukyu generated 17 shots against Nagasaki.
But shots and possession will not win games, goals, and the prevention of goals, do. Maybe FCR are slow starters and it will take a few more games for them to find a rhythm and grab some wins. If you believe that, then FC Ryukyu look primed to bust out in a big way in the very near future. If you believe that they lack the finishing power at the top, then it is likely that FCR continue to pile up draws and losses with very few goals scored.
I for one believe the breakout is coming. Some of the shots will start finding creases in the defense and space around goalies. I also feel that the defense will slowly shore itself up and start choking out the attacks of our opponents, much like we saw against JEF all those days ago.
It should also be noted that last season, Higuchi rarely made changes to the lineup, both when it was and wasn’t working which was a bit frustrating, and I see very little change to the side that drew against Nagasaki tomorrow. I am basing this on the fact that FC Ryukyu have a full week between fixtures following this match and Higuchi wants to notch that first win very badly.
If past performance is any indication of future outcomes, then we could be in trouble. But again, I think FC Ryukyu will overcome the self-induced pressure of seeking their first win by taking down Renofa on their home ground tomorrow.
FC Ryukyu Injuries & Suspensions: We are now past the timeline FCR put out for Kawai to return from his injury. There has been no word on his health at the time of this entry and even if he did return, it is likely he’ll need two weeks to gain back strength and match fitness. But if he is healthy, and is in the lineup, then look out.
5. Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen
1. Score from set pieces. Likelihood 2: Renofa looks very lethargic when it comes to defending set pieces and corners and I think we could have a distinct height advantage over them. Generate these opportunities and end the drought of zero goals from set pieces once and for all.
2. Attack, attack, attack. Likelihood 4: Renofa’s defense will allow the same time and space we as FCR afford many of our opponents. Now is the time to get the shots on net and not just at comfortable heights for the keeper to save. Renofa is also susceptible to the counter attack from what I saw against Ehime and Vortis.
6. Match Prediction
It may not be the prettiest match up this week to watch, but I think FCR can dig out their first win this year in a gritty 2-1 victory. From my vantage point, FC Ryukyu are sort of surging while Renofa are reeling. Renofa has every right to assume they’ll walk away with all three points on Saturday as FCR’s road form is not that great, and they too are coming off some tough results. But I feel FC Ryukyu has the firepower to score whereas Renofa are missing some key pieces to their attack due to injury.
7. Match Day 6 Around J2
Not many fixtures jump off the page this week. The biggest one of them all seems to be (7) Fagiano Okayama hosting (1) V-Varen Nagasaki. Other than that, maybe the (10) Jubilo Iwata taking on (8) Giravanz Kitakyushu looks tasty.
8. Conclusion
Just your typical, bottom of the J2 Table, grudge match this weekend. And of course, the wet weather will only further complicate things. FC Ryukyu are desperately seeking their first win and Renofa need to break their losing streak so “something has to give.” With that said, let’s get after it!
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