“Now is the Time” Match Day 3 Preview: (20) Giravanz Kitakyushu vs. (17) FC Ryukyu 7/04/20 #FC琉球

Introduction

We are off and running in the J2 with FC Ryukyu earning their first point of the year last week against Avispa Fukuoka. This week’s opponent, Giravanz Kitakyushu, were recently promoted to J2 after winning the J3 in 2019. These two sides last met back in 2018 where FC Ryukyu did the double over Kitakyushu, who ended up finishing bottom that year, while FC Ryukyu went on to lift the J3 title. It is safe to say that these are not the same two sides who met back in 2018 with both looking to notch their first J2 victory of the 2020 campaign this weekend.

1. Weather Forecast
2. Match Day 2 Review: Giravanz Kitakyushu
3. Match Day 2 Review: FC Ryukyu
4. Team Previews & Injury Report
5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
6. Match Prediction
7. Match Day 3 Around J2
8. J-League English Content
9. Conclusion

1. Weather Forecast

It looks like it will rain all weekend with showers expected during the match. Going to be nasty out there in Kitakyushu this weekend.

2. Match Day 2 Review: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs. V-Varen Nagasaki

Giravanz lost to V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 in a very wet, very nasty, and very rainy affair on the road last week. I would encourage all of you to read the @V_Varen_EN review of the match as it provides a much better summary of the game.

https://nagasakiblueorange.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/match-report-v-varen-21-giravanz/

3. Match Day 2 Review: FC Ryukyu vs. Avispa Fukuoka

FC Ryukyu and Avispa Fukuoka ground out a 1-1 draw in Okinawa this past Sunday. You can read my full match day review below or watch the highlights, your choice.

https://fcryukyublog.home.blog/2020/06/29/match-day-2-report-17-fc-ryukyu-vs-4-avispa-fukuoka-6-28-2020-fc%e7%90%89%e7%90%83/

• If you yearn for even more info and more stats on games then check out the Football Lab. It is a Japanese language website but is easily translated through your internet browser, it is very impressive.

https://www.football-lab.jp/ryuk/report/

4. Team Previews & Injury Report

(20) Giravanz Kitakyushu 0W0D2L 1GF 3GA -2GD: Giravanz made five changes to their starting lineup from their previous opening day match against Fukuoka back in February. Kobayashi completely replaced the attack duo up front of Machino and Sato with Suzuki and Ikemoto. He also swapped Arakaki and Kokubu from the midfield for Tsubaki and Kawakami, with the latter having moved up from his role at CB the previous match to fill in at CDM.

Statistically, the changes did not make much difference as the shots and free kicks were the same across the two matches but Kitakyushu did end up scoring their first goal of the season. The “eyeball” test would tell you that Giravnanz created the same amount of chances against Nagaski as they did against Fukuoka, but they did not experience the same type of forward thrust they enjoyed against Fukuoka.

The highlights show four (4) chances this past week against Avispa but 3 of them, including the goal from an errant clearance, were mostly generated by Nagasaki turnovers. The goal scorer for Kitakyushu, Kokubu, came on to replace Ikoma at CB, and I assume that meant Kawakami dropped back to CB based on Kokubu’s location when he scored. I thought that Giravanz may have opted to switch to a back three in defense near halftime to add to the attack, but this was not the case.

Giravanz Kitakyushu Injuries/Suspensions: No starting members are listed on the injury report.

(17) FC Ryukyu 0W1D1L 1GF 2GA -1GD: Higuchi was forced into making one change last Sunday as starting LM, Shuto Kawai, was out with an ankle injury so in stepped Koya Kazama. FC Ryukyu are blessed with midfield talent this year so while there was a slight drop off in the overall amount of chances created and possession between their two games, it was not a steep drop. Though I must say, the drop off in speed down the left without Kawai was very noticeable.

Manager Higuchi also opted to start Fukui over Suzuki at CB; Torikai over Tavares at RB; and Kazuki Yamaguchi over Ren Ikeda in the #10 role. Ryukyu’s reserves included Shinji, Uehara, Tomidokoro, Tanaka, Suzuki and Koizumi though Shinji remained on the bench the whole game.

I feel as if FC Ryukyu have the stronger squad of the two this week which should result in far more opportunities compared to last week. Ryukyu bested their best two opponents in the shot and possession departments so FC Ryukyu should have no problem hitting the back of the net this week.

Of course, this will largely depend on Higuchi’s lineup selection and game plan. I hope we see Suzuki back in the starting CB role, leaving Fukui on the bench, with the same attacking 4 -Koya, Yamaguchi, Motegi and Abe- from last week, in order to control the tempo of the game. I would then expect Uehara and Tanaka to come on late in order to provide a bit of height and pace to overpower the Kitakyushu back four.

We also need to see more from FC Ryukyu on dead ball kicks as they have yet to score from those plays despite the multitude of opportunities to date. If the first cross from a corner can just clear the initial line of defenders than Yong Jick and Uehara, possibly Tavares if he is in there, could rise and meet them for headers. On that note, the most lethal player from corners last week was Numata who had two excellent headers that when he found some open space in the Fukuoka defense.

FC Ryukyu Injuries/Suspensions: No need to state the long-term injuries again until they are close to returning to the roster. MF Shuto Kawai is still another 3 weeks away from returning to the team because of an ankle injury. 

5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Isolate/Mark MF Daigo Takahashi. Likelihood 2: Takahashi is by far Kitakyushu’s best player this season and is responsible for most of their goal scoring chances to date. I did not see anything from the Giravanz strike duo that would indicate FC Ryukyu struggling to blunt the Giravanz attack. So if Ryukyu can take their best player in Takahashi out of their opponent’s game plan, it should be a recipe for success.

2. Capitalize on set pieces. Likelihood 4: FC Ryukyu hit the wood work once from a CK and had another one wiped off the board due to a foul on the GK. Serantes also made a very nice save on a dangerous FK by Motegi. But we are not facing Serantes this week and we should utilize our height advantage with Uehara and Yong Jick this week compared to the past weeks.

6. Match Day 3 Prediction

This game may start out as a hard-fought battle between a couple of the teams expected to finish in the bottom third of J2 in 2020, but I think FC Ryukyu will take control of the game and go on to score multiple goals. I will say FC Ryukyu notch their first win with an impressive 3-0 result over Kitakyushu.

7. Match Day 3 in J2

(4) Avispa Fukuoka hosting (1) V-Varen Nagasaki in a Kyushu derby is the premier match up this week on Saturday evening followed closely by the (8) Tokushima Vortis vs. (9) Kyoto Sanga match that same night. We then close out the round on Sunday when (11) Jubilo Iwata hosts (4) Fagiano Okayama.

It will be interesting to see how both Tokushima and Jubilo respond to their losses and whether or not Kyoto and Okayama can assert themselves as promotion candidates. The rest of the weekend features some mid-table match-ups with 4 out of the 5 teams currently at the bottom of J2 squaring off against one another.

One final point on the upcoming round of fixtures. It was revealed by the J-League that none of the referees had been tested for COVID-19 prior to last weeks opening round in J2 & J3 and this is shocking. I feel that this is an injustice to the teams, staff and players that worked diligently to restart the season; and to the fans, and is nothing short of reckless behavior on behalf of the league. New cases of the virus are being reported daily in Japan and when you consider the leagues justification for foregoing the testing seems anecdotal. They claim that many of the refs have other jobs, which you and I know, could possibly put them at a greater risk than the most for coming into contact with COVID-19. This policy needs to change now as I highly doubt that the refs , like the teams, are all located geographically to the matches they’re overseeing, which puts many outside of football at risk when these guys travel.

8. J-League English Content

9. Conclusion

There is not much that separates these two teams on paper as both have yet to win a game and have nearly identical goal scoring records. This will be the first real test for FC Ryukyu against a lesser opponent which means it is our first opportunity to assess the strength of this team after facing two tough opponents in the past weeks (months).

Considering FC Ryukyu struggled mightily on the road last year, and it wasn’t until they began facing weaker competition near the end of the season – when the results really mattered – that they began stacking up the road wins. FC Ryukyu cannot afford a slow start on the road this season, especially against a newly promoted side, as they have a murderous fixture schedule through mid-August after Kitakyushu. A win would do much for their confidence before they host 2 of the top sides in J2 over the coming weeks.

Therefore, now is the time for FC Ryukyu to make a statement this weekend by traveling to Kitakyushu and coming away with all 3 points. And with that……………………………………………….