“Flying High Again” Match Day 2 Preview: (15) FC Ryukyu vs. (6) Avispa Fukuoka 6/28/20 #FC琉球

Introduction

It is good to be back right! Over 4 months of inactivity and now we are a mere 24 hours away from kicking off the 2020 season (again). The second round of J2 pits promotion candidates, Avispa Fukuoka, against our beloved FC Ryukyu. My how the winds of change have favored Avispa since the 2019 season ended compared to that of FC Ryukyu. A new manager and new signings have reinvigorated a Fukuoka side that was adrift for much of 2019 while FC Ryukyu still have plenty of questions to answer heading (back) into 2020. Also, this is the first co-authored preview of 2020 as @NavyBlueWasp has written the Avispa Fukuoka team preview for this week’s match-up.

1. Weather Forecast

The irony of there being a decent weather forecast for Sunday is that there will be no fans there to enjoy it. I think we had rain at the Tapista, or at least it was forecast to rain, in 15 of the 21 home games last year. To make matters worse, there was one match with a 0% chance of rain but it rained for about 10 minutes prior to kickoff.

2. Match Day 1 Recap: Giravanz Kitakyushu (0) vs (1) Avispa Fukuoka 2/23/2020

Giravanz came out firing and nearly scored on two early opportunities. Unfortunately for Kitakyushu, the two shots that hit the side netting and post, would be their best chances to score all day.

Fukuoka took control of this game around the 25’ mark and never looked back. To be honest, the score line could have been higher had Fukumitsu scored on a breakaway if not for a nice save by the Giravanz keeper. Nevertheless, Avispa grabbed their first win of the season.

3. Match Day 1 Recap: JEF UTD Chiba (1) vs (0) FC Ryukyu 2/23/2020

FC Ryukyu surrendered the first, and only, goal of this match within 40 seconds of the opening whistle. Then FC Ryukyu proceeded to out possess (%65 to %35) and out-shoot (19/5) JEF for the remainder of the game. Unfortunately, none of that mattered as FC Ryukyu failed to score resulting in their first loss of 2020.

4. Team Previews

We are lucky enough to have @NavyBlueWasp provide the team preview this week for Avispa Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka: “I think Manager Shigetoshi Hasebe has been our biggest signing this season. What he achieved with Mito Hollyhock last season (7th place, just missed the playoffs by a few goals) was quite remarkable. He brought his favorite player with him, Hiroyuki Mae, and straight away named him captain of the team. Mae was one of the leading players at Mito last season and is adept at directing the game plan of Hasebe.”

“Up front, we signed Juanma Delgado and Daiya Tono to bolster the attack that only scored 39 goals last season. Juanma scored 13 goals for Omiya last season and uses his physical advantage over the thinly framed defenders of J2 quite well. Naturally, you could feed Delgado with crosses, but he’s also quite skilled with his feet. Daiya Tono was recently signed from Honda FC by Kawasaki Frontale and then loaned to us prior to the start of the season. I see him as a big talent, and big improvement for us up front, as he scored nine goals to go along with seven assists in the JFL as one of the key players in Honda’s great Emperor’s Cup campaign. He also added four goals in that competition. Tono has already showed off his talents in this year’s season-opener against Kitakyushu where he scored the winner with many considering him the “Man of the Match” due to his high working-rate and persistence.”

“Beside the aforementioned Mae, we also signed Takuya Shigeyoshi from Kyoto Sanga FC. He formed a nice partnership with Mae in our central MF in the first game and I expect that duo to be our starting CMF for most of the season. Shigeyoshi is the more attacking player of the two, and he too has a high work-rate. He often can be found in both boxes of the field during any given match. In the attacking midfield, we’ve signed Daisuke Kikuchi on loan from Kashiwa Reysol and Takaki Fukumitsu, on loan from Cerezo Osaka, also formerly of Mito where he played under Hasebe. I rate Kikuchi highly and the J2 could be the right stage for him to shine again. Fukumitsu made a successful debut in the first league game and provides another attacking element up front.”

“A signing, which I was highly doubtful about, was the loaning of Emil Salomonsson from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. I was worried he would be to slow on the right wing, but he proved me wrong and made an impressive debut versus Kitakyushu. What he lacks in skills, he compensates with a high working-rate and a very unselfish team first mentality. While not a signing, it is important to note that starting goalkeeper, Jon Ander Serantes, opted to stay instead of leaving for the J1 or Europe (again). As you know, Serantes had some super performances last year and I was very worried that he would depart after our horrible season. And recently he turned down an offer from La Liga-side Atletico Bilbao.”

“I think these players are major signings that could see Avispa Fukuoka fight for promotion to the J1. The corona-crisis has complicated things a bit with such a long break in the schedule and then the cramming in of the remaining fixtures. But if everything works out right, and with a bit of luck, I think we can finish inside the top 2 in 2020 for one of the two automatic promotion-spots.”

“In closing, I mentioned our win against Kitakyushu as being quite entertaining and the team really showed what they can do any given week. Sure, not everything worked 100% of the time as this was the first time that eight of the eleven players in the starting lineup were playing together. Some could say it was just Kitakyushu, but the work-rates of Tono and Salomonsson, plus the way Mae organized the attack, provides a lot of optimism moving forward for Avispa.”

Avispa Fukuoka Injuries/Suspensions: Avispa has only 1 injury to contend with and that is to CB Carlos Gutierrez who picked up a crucial ligament injury in his knee prior to the opening fixture. He is likely out for the remainder of the campaign.

FC Ryukyu: While Avispa are dealing with 8 out of 11 new starters, FC Ryukyu are right there with them with 7 out of 11 new starters of their own. FC Ryukyu has a completely new back 4 and has replaced 3 out of the 4-attacking front men.

FC Ryukyu failed to fire in their opening round but came close on several occasions. What is worrisome is that none of those chances came from our lone striker in Highuchi’s 4-2-3-1 formation. In fact, more chances were created by our newly signed RB Tavares than Abe up front. Since relegation is of no issue for 2020, maybe this won’t matter. But we cannot rely on our midfielders to do all the heavy lifting moving forward.

We will see the return of several injured players and possibly this reinvigorates this squad but that is anyone’s guess. I for one will be eagerly awaiting the return to action to better size up the squad for 2020 and see what the new signings offer. Regardless, I think the roster is too thin to sustain the upcoming campaign (injuries and suspensions) and we will need loan reinforcements to fill out starting lineups each week as well as provide a break to the incumbent starters (Maybe a blessing in disguise as we can see what we have in our younger talent this year compared to seasons past, as they will be pressed into service). If you recall last year, we went long spells without Dany, Yu, Keita, Uehara, Torikai, Nishioka, Shinji, Tokumoto, Masutani and Ochi. We never even knew what was wrong with some of them and we saw how Highuchi favored a core group of players. We may not have that luxury this year and there is nothing wrong with a little experimentation in the lineup.

I hope that we see Koya take up the starting LM role with the injury to Shuto Kawai, but it is highly likely we see all 5 substitutes feature on Sunday. Some for player maintenance and some for tactical purposes. As I stated many times since the break began, we have a razor thin roster that cannot afford multiple simultaneous injuries, suspensions or time away for COVID-19.

FC Ryukyu Injuries/Suspensions: FC Ryukyu should see the return of all the players who were injured prior to their first match:  GK Dany Carvajal, CB Ryohei Okazaki, LM Yu Tomidokoro and MF Kazuki Yamaguchi. FC Ryukyu will be without the services of 3^rd choice GK Kosuke Inose, who is expected back in August from shoulder surgery, and FWD Takuya Hitomi who is out until Mid-November after suffering an injury to his knee. The most devastating injury that FC Ryukyu most contend with is that of starting LM, Shuto Kawai, who will be sidelined for 4 weeks due to an ankle ligament injury he picked up in practice last week.

5. FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory for Match Day 2

The Scale: 5- An almost certainty it will occur 4-Fairly-Certain it will happen 3-Somewhat Certain it could happen 2-Very Unlikely it happens 1- Requires a Miracle to happen

1. Match the physicality of Fukuoka. Likelihood 4. I think FC Ryukyu matches up well against the physical front-line of Fukuoka. We saw Delgado bully some of our defenders last season when he was with Omiya and I think the pairing of Suzuki and Yong Jick at the back are better suited to handle those duties this year. I also think that FC Ryukyu could have the advantage on set pieces, especially corner kicks, with their height advantage over Avispa.

2. Make quick passes across the pitch to stretch the back 4 of Fukuoka and open some shooting lanes for our LM & RM. Likelihood 3. They key to beating the 4-4-2, right? Need to make those long, cross pitch, passes into the open channels where one of our players is left unmarked. I did not see FC Ryukyu do this that much last year and I worry that our attack will narrow with the absence of Kawai’s speed down the left side.

6. Match Day Prediction

@OkinawaOzzy: This certainly isn’t the same Avispa squad from last year and I fear that we may see the true power of this Fukuoka side on Sunday evening. 2-1 in favor of our guests.

@NavyBlueWasp: I hate predictions, but I’ll go with 1-1. I don’t trust your boys lol!

7. Match Day 2 Fixtures of Note around J2

JEF UTD Chiba hosting Omiya in a battle of two possible promotion teams for 2020 gets the new campaign started right. Behind them is the reinforced Fagiano Okayama vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Saturday that also looks pretty tasty.

Maybe the biggest match of the re-opening weekend, as mentioned by @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites on the J-Talk Extra Time pod this week, will be Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata on Sunday. This match will officially open the new Sanga Stadium for J2 with two of the top promotion favorites for 2020 locking horns.

8. Around the J-League Blogs, Twitter Accounts and Pod Casts

@J_League_En: The J-League will broadcast two games this weekend for those located internationally (not located in Japan) JUN 27 Tokyo Verdy v Machida Zelvia 1800 JST & JUN 28 Kyoto Sanga FC vs Jubilo Iwata 1800 JST. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmQp6ZaAejJKKkXc_Y_lh1A

9. Conclusion

FC Ryukyu once again host Avispa Fukuoka for their first home game of the season. Last year FC Ryukyu defeated Avispa twice, 3-1 & 1-0. But I do not think we will catch them sleeping on us like they may have in opening fixture last year, nor do I think we are facing the same opponent that provided FC Ryukyu their first road win in over 7 months late last season.

The one advantage that both sides share is that this is their first competitive match in over 100 days and they both recently came back to training. All the miscommunication leading to missed passes and misfires on net are sure to pop up this weekend. This is such a strange restart to a season that already completed an off-season, pre-season, and opening fixture so anything could happen on Sunday.

In any event, time to get it going again and with that, Ozzy Osbourne will close this preview.

Come on FC RYUKYU!!!!!!