Intro
My oh my, the time has flown by this offseason. Nevertheless, here we are at the first Match Day Preview for FC Ryukyu in the 2020 season. Last year I found that Match Day Previews became much richer and more deeply involved as the season evolved over time. Of course, this is to be expected when story lines start to unfold, players get injured, teams experience a dip or rise in form and statistics allow us to conduct some level of critical analysis. But at the start of each season, teams are relatively unknown commodities and often playing together for the first time. Surely last season stands as a perfect example when FC Ryukyu got out on the front foot quickly with such a blazing start and took everyone by surprise.
The same notion holds true for 2020 as teams will spend the better part of a month learning to gel when game speeds increase and matches begin to count. By starting fast early last year, FC Ryukyu scored a major advantage over teams that struggled out of the gate. I am not sure we will catch many by surprise this year, and in fact, I think FC Ryukyu have a very tough opening 11 matches to begin the year. This could cause some early tense moments this spring as well as stressful ones come this fall.
With that in mind, we open the Match Day Previews for this season with a road trip to Chiba where FC Ryukyu will take on JEF United Chiba on the opening day of 2020. If you recall last year, JEF got the better of FC Ryukyu on two separate occasions. A 1-0 win in Chiba on the first Wednesday night game of the year back on April 3rd followed up by a 2-0 win in Okinawa at the end of July. The loss in July was number 4 in the midst of a 5-game losing streak for FC Ryukyu which really piled the pressure on the squad and the manager Higuchi. FC Ryukyu were in complete freefall at that time and were tumbling down the J2 table with each consecutive loss. But despite suffering setbacks to JEF along the way, FC Ryukyu would go on to finish higher than JEF in the J2 table in 2019.
But a lot has changed since these sides last met nearly 7 months ago. Players have changed teams, JEF has changed their manager and there are different expectations for both clubs heading into 2020.
Weather Forecast
JEF Chiba United
JEF made some wholesale changes to a side that finished 17th in the table on 43 points in 2019. Often the punch line of several jokes stemming from numerous howlers and blunders, JEF has addressed the GK position this offseason by signing a veteran player from J1. Shoto Arai (Kawasaki Frontale) will look to sure up the final line of defense for JEF that only mustered 11 clean sheets from 42 matches in 2020. It is not as if clean sheets tell the whole story as there were probably a couple of occasions where a goal was conceded that either leveled or titled matches for JEF last season after they had already conceded.
Kleber will lead the JEF line up front as he did for much of last season. Kleber will be partnered with either newly signed Keita Yamashita (Renofa Yamaguchi) or Takayuki Funayama. Kleber banged in 17 goals in his 38 starts last season with Yamashita and Funayama each chipping 11/12 respectfully. Keita is 9 years younger than Funayama and perhaps the new coach favors a more aggressive style of play, with more gut busting runs compared to last season, and that may favor the younger Keita. JEF also signed Alan Pinheiro from Tokyo Verdy, a 17-goal scorer from just 2 seasons ago, to add to their firepower up front.
I cannot speak volumes on the defenders that JEF signed this offseason but it seems a majority of the issues that plagued this side in 2019 may very well continue into 2020. All in all, this looks like a club that wants to execute a very aggressive attacking style of play and run the opponent into the ground. But can they can keep opponents off the score sheet?
FC Ryukyu
Last year’s opening day starters for FC Ryukyu included Koji Suzuki, Kazaki Nakagawa, Keita Tanaka, Yu Tomidokoro, Kazumasa Uesato, Koki Kazama, Taishi Nishioka, Ryohei Okazaki, Shuhei Tokumoto Kosuke, Masutani and Dany Carvajal. From that group, only 6 remain, and of those 5, only 2 are likely start the opening match of 2020. This is nothing new to the fans of Ryukyu as many of us have seen some violent roster churn every season for this club. The question now becomes, can FC Ryukyu survive or thrive with this new group of players?
Up top will be Takuma Abe or Shinya Uehara for FC Ryukyu. Either will be flanked by Keita Tanaka, Koya Kazama, Shuto Kawai or Shunsuke Motegi with recent college graduate, Ren Ikeda, possibly leading the charge from the #10 slot. The youngster believes he is in the poll position to start the year there and that would come as a big surprise considering he beat out the likes of Koya and others to take over the CAM role. But whatever, name brand recognition is nice, results are so much better. So, if he can indeed prove his mettle out there, then I am all for it.
FC Ryukyu has made whole sale changes to back line that conceded a J2 league leading 81 goals last season. Tokumoto, Masutani, Nishioka have departed and Ryohei Okazaki is out injured. In comes newly signed North Korean National Team Player, Lee Yong Jick, and on-loan defender from Tokushima Vortis, Daisei Suzuki. At full back there is Felipe Taveras (RB), signed from a Brazilian Club this offseason, as well as (LB) Keito Numata who transferred in from Zweigen Kanazawa to replace Tokumoto. If Tavares can produce, or Torikai can get healthy and return to his top form, defense could all of a sudden become be a hidden strength for this team. There is an off chance that Ryoji Fukui starts in place of Suzuki, as he was Highuchi’s preferred choice all last season when there was an injury anywhere cross the back 4, but Suzuki seems to have the demeanor you want in a CB and I hope he is in there come Sunday.
Finally, we come onto the goal keeping crew. With Dany out rehabbing from offseason surgery, FCR are left with some unproven options on the roster. Inose started one match for FC Ryukyu last year at Mito and Tsumita has never featured for the club at this level. Then there is Junto Taguchi who signed from Albirex Niigata but I believe hasn’t featured in a competitive match in well over year. The closest I could find was a loan spell at Fujieda MYFC. For a side that only kept 7 clean sheets in all of 2019 (all 7 from Dany) there are many questions and concerns heading into the season opener.
Player Injuries
JEF UTD Chiba: MF Tameda (Cannot locate the injury) Return 8-10 weeks.
FC Ryukyu: GK Carvajal: (Ankle) Expected Return-4weeks. DF Okazaki: (Foot Fracture) Expected Return-3 weeks. MF Tomidokoro (Ankle/Foot) Expected Return-4 weeks. MF Yamaguchi: (Calf/Hamstring Pull/Tear) Expected Return-6 weeks.
Keys to Victory
Going to add a twist for 2020 to this section and provide a level of confidence after each key to victory indicating the likelihood that I think it will happen. The scale below:
5. An almost certainty: 4 Fairly Certain: 3 Somewhat Certain: 2 Very Unlikely: 1 Miracle
1. Stifle the JEF attack and do not expose the FCR goal keeper. I think FC Ryukyu may have the advantage on defense (words I would have never uttered in 2019) so this is a real possibility and necessity on Sunday. I cannot speak to how Higuchi split the preseason reps between Taguchi, Inose and Tsumita but the last thing FCR needs to do is turn this game into a shooting gallery back there for our goalie. Likelihood: 2
2. Exploit the JEF back line. The JEF defensive unit, much like the FCR back line, is newly formed and learning to play together for the first time. This is probably the weakest link in the JEF side which should allow FCR to get some shots on net which leads to point #3. Likelihood: 4
3. Capitalize on whatever opportunities are afforded by the JEF defense. JEF’s goalkeeper is a step up from last year and a proven shot stopper so weak, ill-advised and off-target shots will not help FCRs chances of victory. Especially if we only have 2-3 quality scoring chances that day. Abe seems dialed in from the amount of pre-season goals he scored so hopefully he can bag a brace on the weekend and give FCR the win. Likelihood: 3
Match Prediction
JEF is stronger on the ends of the pitch at GK and FWD with FCR having the advantage through the middle (MF/DEF). JEF has 3 proven double-digit goal scorers from last year whereas FCR have none. FCR also lack the experience in goal compared to that of JEF. However, FCR are slightly stronger across the back line and loaded with talent through the MF.
Each side is orientated to the attack and therefore this game will boil down to who has the most cracks at the back. Unlike last year when FCR failed to fire in any of their matches against JEF, I think this year will be different. However, I also feel that JEF will capitalize on their opportunities more than FCR and therefore will edge out FCR on the opening day.
Match Day Prediction: JEF UTD Chiba 2-1 FC Ryukyu.
Match Day Information
Please see Lost in Football’s website for information on how to purchase tickets and get the match at JEF UTC Chiba. http://lostinfootballjapan.com/club-profiles/jef-united-chiba/
JEF: https://jefunited.co.jp/event/2020/0223/. Can translate into English if using Google Chrome.
FC Ryukyu: http://fcryukyu.com/news/23000. List of goods on sale at JEF’s stadium.
J Soccer Magazine also has a ton of information on these clubs as well as all the J League sides. http://www.jsoccer.com/new/j2
Check out the latest J2 podcast, J-Talk Extra Time Ep.121, on iTunes Podcasts as well as Podbean where Stuart and Jon cover the opening round of fixtures for J2 this weekend. @sushi_football & @J2KantoBites
Conclusion
It is truly anyone’s guess how the opening day fixture will play out as we’ve never seen these sides face each other with this current crop of players. Will the occasion be too much for Taguchi in net for FCR? Does FCR have the firepower to get into shootouts this season? Can the back line for FCR morph from a position of weakness in 2019 to one of strength in 2020? All good questions that will be answered in short order. But for now, let’s enjoy the opening fixture of the 2020 season as we’ve all waited long enough for it to finally come around.
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