Intro
Well, here we are at the end. The J1/J2 playoff final between Shonan Bellmare and Tokushima Vortis is set for this Saturday. One of these sides will be playing J1 football in 2020 with the other playing in the J2. Tokushima’s path to the final included a 4th place finish in the J2, followed by a 1-1 draw with Ventforet Kofu in the opening round of these playoffs and 1-0 win over Montedio Yamagata in the second round. Shonan’s path was a lot less glamorous. Shonan had a chance this past Sunday to pull themselves out of the relegation battle at the expense of Sagan Tosu but a late goal by already relegated Matsumoto sealed their fate last weekend. There were no playoff games for Shonan to reach this point, instead, it was their overall record that put them in this spot. But before we get to who will win and how they’ll attempt to accomplish the task at hand, let’s look at each side and see if there’s more to their story than the statistics indicate.
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare hail from Kanagawa. Shonan won a total of 12 games this season out of a possible 42. Right away we can see that this was not a side that lit up the score sheet each week and suffered both heavy and embarrassing defeats throughout the year. The first one that comes to mind was the 4-0 drubbing by the JFL side Veertien Mie, in this years Emperor’s Cup. Granted, Shonan may not have played their top lineup, but to suffer a 4-0 loss to a non-league side at home doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in the fans or the club. Shonan then suffered a 3 game losing streak at home that included score lines of 6-0, 5-0 and 3-0. They were able to break out of that funk, at probably the most opportune time, with a 1-0 win on their last home match to at least give them a fighting chance on the last day to avoid the situation they currently find themselves in right now.
As a whole, Shonan were outscored 47 to 80 across all competitions this year. Though the 40 goals they scored in the J1 were by no means the lowest as Shonan outscored 7 other J1 sides this year that included sides Cerezo Osaka, Oita Trinita and Vegalta Sendai that finished much higher up the table than Shonan. The problem for Shonan was they surrendered the second most goals of any J1 side in 2019. For all the FC Ryukyu fans out there, you can understand exactly what I am talking about and see how dangerous conceding that many goals can be for any side that must deal with relegation on a regular basis.
Another worrying trend for this side was that they only had one player who reached double digit points this season. I did not review each player in depth to see if they suffered some sort of injury throughout the season nor did I review every Levain Cup score sheet to see if the goals score din those games were not included in the players tally on the J.League website. In any event, it indicates that this side may not have the ability to press for a goal if they find themselves in any sort of deficit tomorrow.
Tokuhsima Vortis
Those of you that regularly follow the J2 know about Vortis and what they accomplished this year as well as what type of outfit Ricardo Rodriguez assembled for a push to the J1. Vortis sputtered out of the gate to begin the season, that included a loss to FC Ryukyu on match day 4, but they rebounded nicely to earn a positive point in 30 of their remaining 38 matches of 2019. This included an unbeaten run of 12 matches followed by a draw and win against the aforementioned Kofu and Montedio to open the J1/J2 playoffs. But this game will not be played in Tokushima, Vortis will be the visitor for the first time in these playoffs and it is prudent we peer into their away record to see if there are any cracks in this formidable side.
Vortis went 9W5D7L on the road this season tallying 31 goals while conceding 26 for a goal difference of +5. But no so fast, one of those games was a 7-0 pasting of relegated side, FC Gifu, on match day 39. Grated, we cannot discount that game but their goals scored to conceded average for road games drops considerably if we treat that match as an outlier. If we removed the FC Gifu game, then Vortis’s averages are much closer together at 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 surrendered compared to the lofty 1.48 average road goals scored with FC Gifu’s game. This could be a small crack that would otherwise be overlooked due to the recent form this Vortis side has experienced and one that must be slightly concerning heading into the final match of the season.
Recent form and the overall eye test cannot also not be discounted either as we should never rely solely on what some of the statistics indicate. Tokushima won 5 of their final 7 road games while drawing twice to remain unbeaten when closing out the 2019 campaign. But those wins were against Avispa Fukuoka, Ehime FC, JEF United Chiba, Tochigi SC, Omiya Ardija, FC Gifu and Tokyo Verdy. Not many “signature wins” are included in that group outside of Omiya but it’s not Tokuhsima’s fault for how their schedule was constructed; they could only play the teams that were put in front of them. For their part, Tokushima did beat promoted side, Yokohama FC and playoff side Ventforet Kofu on the road this year. I am purposely excluding any big wins at home against strong sides as Vortis are forced to travel this week and teams can perform at a noticeably different level when traveling. What I will point out though is, while momentum is not something we can or cannot actually measure, it most likely exists and Tokushima have serious amounts of positive momentum carrying them into the final compared to their opponent who stumbled at the very end.
Player Injuries
Shonan Bellmare: MF Ko Sawada has been out since July with a torn ACL.
Tokushima Vortis: FW Takeru Kishimoto has been out with a fractured ankle since mid-November.
Match Prediction
A tough game to predict as I have not spent a ton of time watching Shonan Bellmare throughout the 2019 campaign. I did see them face off against the J1 champions, Yokohama F Marinos earlier this year in a Levain Cup game but I was mainly there to see former FC Ryukyu players Park Il Gyu and Nakagawa, none of which featured that day by the way (terrible weather as well!). I will say that Shonan gave the champs fits throughout the match but I am not sure who was the main men for either side that game and Yokohama ultimately prevailed 1-0. What I will say is the Shonan fans traveled really well that day and I expected them to be in full voice at home tomorrow.
For all their warts, Shonan put forth some serious efforts to close out their season with draw at J1 runners-up, FC Tokyo, that could have ended in a Shonan victory if it weren’t for an extra time goal by FC Tokyo. Shonan also earned a victory at home against 6th placed Hiroshima before their collapse at Matsumoto.
Tokushima have done the job these past 2 weeks against 2 top six sides in the J2 this year. They were never forced to chase their opponent in either game as they were the home side and simply needed a draw to advance. The shoe is on the other foot now as they say and we will need to see Tokushima come out and grab that all important first goal. The number they really need to hit is 2, a number they hit 7 times this year on the road that includes their last 3 road matches. The Vortis back line will need to frustrate the Shonan attacking players with Shonan attempting to do the same while trying to hit Vortis on the counter.
Shonan has the ability, as well as the players, to sit back, defend and then hit Vortis on the counter. I would be especially wary of #10 from Shonan, Naoki Yamada, as he has an absolute cannon of a left leg and his ability to quickly turn and put power behind a shot could prove vital tomorrow. As pointed out by the boys on the J-Talk podcast this week, Vortis need to dictate the pace and play of this game as Shonan will simply try and slow things down and get out of there with a draw.
Alright, enough small talk. Are Vortis a team of destiny or are Shonan destined to stay in the J1 for 2020 despite their poor performance all season? Tokushima have played 4 more games than Shonan this year but Shonan have also lost to non-league side Veertien and J2 side V-Varen Nagasaki this season. I have picked against Vortis once and was very wrong while rightly siding with them last week. Therefore, I see the J2 playoff winners securing the much-needed victory to propel them into the J1 while simultaneously sinking Shonan into J2 hell. The strike partnership of Nomura and Kawata from Vortis coupled with Jordy Buijs being the tone setter for this team will be too much for Shonan on Sunday. Goals from both Kawata and a Buijs FK bring home the win for the visitors.
Tokushima Vortis 2-1 Shonan Bellmare
Conclusion
There isn’t much more I can say so why bother. Enjoy and see you next week with the match report.
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