Intro
The second round of the J1/J2 playoffs will pit #4 seed, Tokushima Vortis, against #6 Montedio Yamagata. Vortis are here because they drew 1 all with Kofu at home last week, whereas Yamagata went into Omiya and dug out a 2-0 road victory. The winner of this match will move on to face the 16th placed team from J1 next Sunday. But for now, that is also in question and we’ll need to wait and see how the J1 fixtures play out this weekend before we can know either of these sides opponents in the final match.
Tokushima Vortis Home Record Compared to Montedio Yamagata Away Record
As previously mentioned in an earlier blog entry, Vortis have only lost 5 times across 23 home games all season and until the draw this past weekend, they had won 4 out of their last 5 home games while maintaining a 3:1 goal scored to conceded ratio. Another impressive stat from the Vortis home record is that they’ve only conceded multiple goals at home on 5 occasions this year. This really puts a lot of pressure on Montedio to score, and not concede, as we just witnessed with Kofu this past Sunday. That is no easy task as it is not easy to score more than 1 goal on Tokushima.
Much like Tokushima’s previous opponent, Kofu, Montedio are no slouches on the road and it will take another solid performance by Vortis to move into the final stage of the competition. Last week I stated that Montedio began the road schedule this season in very strong form only to see it wobble in the second half. I also mentioned that they accumulated some large statistics against weaker sides while losing to some of the stronger sides in the table to close out 2019’s road schedule. None of that mattered last week as they easily brushed aside the #3 seed, Omiya Ardija, en-route to a 2-0 victory. It seems the good road form that Montedio experienced earlier this season may be returning which makes for an interesting matchup against a Tokushima side who fancies scoring goals. I am eagerly looking forward to the Jordy Buijs versus Jefferson Baiano matchup in this one and so should you.
Previous Meetings between Tokushima and Yamagata
Match Day 14 May 9th 2019 Tokushima Vortis 1-1 Montedio Yamagata: Yamagata was defending rather poorly and a cheap give away almost led to a very early goal for Vortis. Vortis did crack the Montedio back line in the 9th minute when a deflected shot from Yuta Uchida was redirected into the Montedio net. Near the end of the first half, Tokushima Forward Kiyotake, was sent off for a rash challenge thus putting Vortis down to 10 men the remainder of the game. Montedio struggled to generate anything offensively this game and were lucky to be awarded a PK that Jefferson Baiano converted to level the match.
Match Day 24 July 27th 2019 Montedio Yamagata 3-1 Tokushima Vortis: Vortis were awarded a PK in the 19th minute that Iwao converted for the early Vortis 1-0 lead. Then, shockingly, Kiyotake was sent off in the first half for the second straight game against Montedio. This time it was his time wasting that upset the referee leading to his second yellow of the half. The sending off once again sparked Yamagata’s offense to level, and then take the lead over Tokushima.
Leading Scorers for Each Side
Player Injuries
Tokushima Vortis: No change from last week. Kishimoto is still sidelined with a fractured ankle that will keep him out the remainder of the season.
Montedio Yamagata: Same as last week as well, none listed.
Match Prediction
Let’s start with a summary of the quotes from the end of the Vortis/Kofu match by Jordy Buijs. First, Tokushima have a huge home field advantage with their supporters and this is probably no easy trek for the Yamagata faithful on Sunday. Two, Vortis already have the advantage of only requiring a draw to advance to the next round as outlined in the playoff rules making life tough for any road opponent. Finally, it is extremely hard to score more than one goal against Tokushima.
Tokushima’s performance against Kofu was not as inspiring as that of their opponent against Omiya last week. Vortis were struggling to break down Kofu’s defense despite Kofu not having an overly strong back line. Vortis had their only real chance stopped by Kofu before Jordy broke the deadlock. However, Kofu and Utaka responded quickly to level the match and make it “game on” again. I think if Kofu had not Allano sent off they could be hosting Montedio this week but that is not the case. And Tokushima never scored to walk away with a win despite the man advantage.
For their part, Montedio looked impressive against Omiya. Stonewalling the Omiya attack all day and then putting them away with some late goals in quick succession. Montedio, like Kofu, also sport an impressive away record in 2019. They conceded the second fewest goals (37) this season in J2 while scoring the second most goals (34) on the road.
So, this begs the questions; can the Montedio back line prevent Tokushima from scoring even 1 goal on Sunday and can Montedio score when both sides are at even strength?
I do not think Montedio can do both despite their strong defensive record and the amount of goals they’ve scored on the road this year. There was nothing in the previous two meetings between these teams to indicate that Montedio can score at even strength coupled with the fact that Vortis only require a draw to advance. This puts Yamagata at a serious disadvantage. I’ve been wrong so, so, so many times before but I feel the Vortis juggernaut rolls on this Sunday.
Tokushima Vortis 1-0 over Montedio Yamagata.
Look Ahead to the Potential J1 Opponents for the Final Round of the J1/J2 Playoffs
1. Shonan Bellmare currently sit 16th and in the drop zone with 35 points. They face already relegated Matsumoto Yamaga FC on the road and have the best chance of escaping the J1/J2 playoff final of the 3 teams at the bottom. Shonan would love a win though a draw may level them with Shimizu S-Pulse and Sagan Tosu and that would result in Shimizu S-Pulse being thrust into the playoff final if those sides draw on Saturday.
2. Shimizu S-Pulse (15) & Sagan Tosu (14) both sit on 36 points and in a very interesting end-of-season-twist, face each other on the final match day. Either side would love to send the other to their death and knowing that Bellmare only need to get level on points with S-Pulse, means S-Pulse really need to go for the win.
Conclusion
There is so much excitement entering the final match day across the J1, J3 and J2 playoffs this weekend. Yokohama FC facing FC Tokyo in the J1 title decider, though FC Tokyo require a 4-0 drubbing to win the league and are missing some of their star players.
Fujieda and Gunma are gunning for the second automatic promotion slot in J3 and Kagoshima fans everywhere will be watching these games with great anticipation. If Fujieda end up second, Kagoshima are safe from relegation to the J3 as Fujieda do not hold a J2 license and therefore cannot be promoted. However, Fujieda host the 2019 J3 champions, Kitakyushu, and though they drew 0-0 last time. Gunma on the other hand travel to 11th placed Fukuhsima, who they beat 2-0 the last time these sides met.
This will be fun for those of us that are neutrals as there will certainly be a lot of teams busting their guts going for it in so many games which makes for exciting football. Enjoy.
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