Intro
The second installment of the J1/J2 playoff preview looks at the match up between Tokushima Vortis and Ventforet Kofu. This is probably the tastier of the two matchups this round as both teams enter this game in good form, unlike the other matchup between Omiya and Montedio. These are two evenly matched sides with some firepower to light up the scoreboards and this should be a very entertaining match to watch as a neutral.
Tokushima Home Record vs Kofu Away Record
Both sides hold a nearly identical record when it comes to wins, draws, losses, goals scored and goals conceded when comparing Tokushima’s home record and Kofu’s away form. I guess that favors Kofu more than it does Tokushima as this means Kofu are well suited to grab wins on the road. It was pointed out to me that if the match were to end in a tie, the victory goes to the home team. No shootouts and no extra .5 for any away goals. That means if Kofu wishes to advance, they must walk away with the victory on Sunday.
In 22 away matches this year, Kofu has achieved that feat 50% of the time. They have drawn 5 times and lost 6 times but the fact that they won over half their matches on the road speaks volumes for their chances at advancing to the next round. Over their past 5 road games, Kofu has won 3 and lost 2 and conceded 7 goals in all competitions. One of those was an emperor’s cup match and they may not have been playing their strongest lineup so if we removed that result, and only counted J2 fixtures, they would’ve had 4 wins while only conceding 5 goals over that span.
On the other side, Tokushima also hold an impressive home record. They won over half of their matches while only losing 5 out of 23 games this season. One of those losses was very recently but it was to newly promoted Yokohama FC to the tune of 1-0. The other occurred way back in August to none other than Kofu. This means that Tokushima have only lost two times at home over the past 4 months. They’ve been shutout at home on 4 occasions, 5 when counting the emperor’s cup, and have scored multiple goals 9 times at home. They’ve conceded multiple goals only 5 times at home while shutting out their opponents 6 times.
Over the past 5 games at home Tokushima have won 4 times and lost once as previously mentioned. During that span they’ve maintained a 3:1 ratio for goals scored to goals conceded. While offense can win games, defense wins championships and if Tokushima wish to advance to the next round, they’ll need to blunt the Kofu attack on Sunday.
Previous Meetings this Season
Match Day 20 June 15th 2019: Ventforet Kofu 0-1 Tokushima Vortis. Ken Iwao scored in the 11th minute off a punched clearance by Kofu goal keeper Kawata, that came right to him inside the 18-yard box. His point-blank shot on the volley went screaming past Kawata for a 1-0 lead that Tokushima wouldn’t relinquish. Kofu had some goal scoring chances but nothing materialized.
Match Day 27 August 10th 2019: Tokushima Vortis 0-2 Ventforet Kofu. Kofu returned the favor 2 months later when they went to Tokushima and dug out a 2-goal victory. Utaka opened the scoring in the 19th minute when his power and pace where on full display. He pushed the ball past the Vortis defender, beat him with speed to create a shooting lane and then powered a shot past the Tokushima goal keeper. Vortis had a nice opportunity to tie the match in the 73rd minute but the Kofu Keeper made a equally nice save. Finally, Uchida added an extra time goal to seal the game.
Leading Scorers
Player Injuries
Tokushima Vortis: FW #15 Takeru Kashimoto fractured his ankle against Yokohama FC and is out. He has chipped in 6 points this season for Vortis but hasn’t been on the score sheet since late June.
Ventforet Kofu: None listed but I know that a couple of their leading scorers were recently cut to include; Yusuke Tanaka (3pts), Shigeru Yokotani (7pts) and Koichi Sato (5pts). Dudu was also on the bench last week agaisnt FC Ryukyu meaning he is back to full health.
Match Prediction
Here are the facts:
1. Ventforet Kofu have won 4 in a row coming into this match while only conceding once.
2. Kofu are unbeaten in 11 out of their last 12 matches.
3. Since late July, Kofu have only lost 4 times in the J2 league.
4. While Kofu started hot this year, and were near the top of the table, they’ve hovered between the 5th and 8th spot for most of the season.
5. Tokushima Vortis had a 12-game unbeaten streak prior to their loss against Yokohama FC 2 weeks ago.
6. Vortis have only lost once in their past 15 games and those 36 points saw them rise from 12th in the table on August 10th, to 4th by the end of the season.
7. Vortis have shout out their opponent at home 6 times this season. Kofu have been shut out only 3 times this season as the away side, with their last shutout occurring back on July 20th on Match Day 23.
8. Vortis have scored multiple goals at home this season 9 times. Kofu have scored multiple goals on the road 10 times this season. One of those was against Tokushima.
9. Kofu have earned 7 points off the playoff contenders on the road this season by defeating Vortis and Yamagata while drawing with Omiya. Tokushima have only earned 1 point off these same opponents at home having lost to Omiya and Kofu while earning a draw against Yamagata.
10. Kofu have beaten Tokushima at home 2-0.
Really no way to separate these teams. This will be a heavyweight, blow for blow, knock down, dragged out fight to the very end. Most people see the surging Vortis squad as the front runner to win the playoff bracket and take on whoever finishes 16th in J1. I think, we could see an upset on Sunday because of how good Kofu has been on the road.
Let me explain. In the National Football League in America, there are playoffs at the end of the year, similar to what we ‘ll see these next 3 weeks. In that sport, successful playoff teams are those that have proven they can win tough games on the road. In fact, you must be able to win on the road as only 2 teams have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There are plenty of instances where the road team, obviously a lower seeded side, pulls off the upset and wins. I feel that this will happen on Sunday.
I think my dark horse to win this playoff and achieve J1 promotion is Kofu. I think they can defeat Tokushima on Sunday and then go on the road to defeat Omiya, or, if it were truly in their favor, defeat Yamagata at home before traveling to the J1 16th placed team with promotion/relegation on the line. Kofu were very sluggish against FC Ryukyu this past weekend and FC Ryukyu dominated the possession battle and goal scoring opportunities, but Kofu capitalized when it mattered most. If Kofu can weather the Tokushima attack and strike them on the counter, where they are so lethal, Kofu will march on to the second round.
Ventforet Kofu 2-1 Tokushima Vortis.
Conclusion
Getting my popcorn ready as they say for this one. Nothing more needs to be said. Tune in and enjoy.
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