Intro
Omiya Ardija host Montedio Yamagata at the NACK 5 stadium this Saturday in the first round of the J1 Promotion Playoffs. The winner will advance to face the winner of the other semifinal, Tokushima Vortis versus Ventforet Kofu. Omiya had an outside shot at securing automatic promotion just a few short weeks ago but ended the season with 3 straight draws resulting in the overall #3 seed for these playoffs. Montedio didn’t do much better as they lost 3 out of their final 4 games and ended up finishing in the 6th and final playoff spot.
Home Record for Omiya Ardija and Away Record for Montedio Yamagata
Omiya have played 23 home games all season across two competitions. I am counting the Vissel Kobe match as a home game considering it was played at Nack 5 for the Emperors Cup even though Omiya were considered the away side. Omiya hold a distinct advantage over Montedio when it comes to home vs away records in that Omiya have only lost 3 times at home all season. One of those was the 4-0 loss to Kobe which means they’ve only lost twice at home all season against J2 opponents. Care to guess who one of those losses was? BOOM! FC RYUKYU. In all seriousness, Omiya have an impressive 14W6D3L record at home with 43 goals scored while only conceding 24. If you take away the Kobe match that means only 20 goals surrendered to J2 sides and if you take the FC Ryukyu game with its 4 goals, that means Omiya conceded only 16 goals across 21 games. If I were to guess who the stingier defensive side was in this match-up, I would’ve guessed Yamagata as they were a very tough nut to crack early on this season. Still, over the last 5 home games, Omiya have averaged over 2 goals scored while only conceding a total of 2 goals to their opponents. Meaning they have really tightened up at the back. On the flip side, Montedio have averaged the same amount of goals scored on the road over their last 5 games, but they have conceded far more than Omiya when they’re the visitor.
Montedio started the 2019 season by only losing once in their first 11 road games. They then proceeded to lose 4 out of their remaining 10 road games. There is a stark contrast to how the team started out and how they finished on the road this season. In their first 11 games they scored 14 goals, conceded 8 and had 6 shutouts. Over the course of the last 10, they scored 20, conceded 17 and only shutout their opponent twice. It seems that Montedio have broken down defensively since their strong start. Nearly three quarters of all the goals they scored in the second half of the season on the road (14 of 20) occurred during a 4-game stretch against Reysol, Kagoshima, FC Ryukyu and JEF. They followed that up with losses to Kanazawa and Mito before beating Renofa on the road 3-2 to close out their road schedule. So much of their favorable road results are contained in a short stretch.
As mentioned in the introduction, both sides are entering this match in less than top form. Omiya had won 3 straight prior to their 3 straight draws to Tochigi SC, Niigata and Kanazawa. It seems the Omiya attack has ground to a halt at the most inopportune time. They’ve only scored one goal over the past 3 matches, the other being an own goal against Kanazawa. Montedio, on the other hand, have lost 3 out of their last 4 games including the home loss to Machida Zelvia on the last day of the season. Now, one could argue that Montedio would’ve rather traveled to Omiya vice Tokushima to start the playoffs but that would insinuate some match-fixing and that would definitely upset all the Kagoshima fans if it were true. Plus, rarely does trying to line up your match ups work on sports. More often than not it completely blows up in your face.
Previous Meetings this Season
Match Day 4 March 17th 2019: Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Omiya Ardija. A Jefferson Baiano penalty kick proved to be the difference in this game after he was brought down in the box early in the first half. Each side traded some goal scoring chances but neither scored the remainder of the match. The Montedio side looked strong defensively and on the attack with Baiano and Sakano in the lineup.
Match Day 26 August 4th 2019: Omiya Ardija 3-2 Montedio Yamagata. An absolute cracker with 5 total goals. Montedio jumped out to an early 1-0 lead before a Simovic brace in the first half put Omiya up 2-1. Montedio equalized within 10 minutes of the start of the second half before Barada from Omiya put it out of reach after a diving, punched clearance from the Montedio goal keeper fell right at his feet with a wide-open shooting lane.
Leading Scorers for Each Side
Player Injuries
Shockingly none are listed for either side at the moment. However, Jefferson Baiano, Akito Takagi and Shuto Minami havent featured for Yamagata in some time. The same could be said for Omiya players Masato Kojima, Noriyoshi Sakai and Akinari Kawazura.
Match Prediction
Though Montedio proved it could score on the road versus Omiya I think this is two totally different teams we are looking at this weekend. I think Omiya have the better of the 2 goal keepers and the Montedio defense, particularly Kuriyama, will have his hands full with either or both Simovic and Delgado. Montedio have conceded multiple goals in 4 straight games and prior to a string of 1-1 and goal less draws, Omiya had scored multiple goals in 4 straight games. Finally, Omiya’s goal scoring/conceded record over their last 5 home games seems very telling for how this one could end.
Omiya Ardija 3-1 over Montedio Yamagata.
Conclusion
Not sure if this is the tastier of the 2 matches this weekend but it should feature some goals which is always good for the neutral fan. Omiya are going to need to generate some momentum if they are to make it past some tough opponents en route to the J1 and there is no better way than by getting a multiple goal, multiple goal difference victory to start the playoffs.
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