Intro
Something has to give. Literally. These two teams each bring an interesting dynamic/aspect to this match. Zelvia have only amassed 2 wins at home all season while FC Ryukyu have only won once on the road. If ever there was a match that FC Ryukyu could break this ridiculous streak, you’d figure this could be the one. But hold on folks, teams target FC Ryukyu match-ups as wins whenever they visit and they have every right too. I am sure the Machida faithful are targeting this game as one in which they can break their unlucky streak of not having won at home since match day 6, which is about 6 calendar months ago. This is definitely not your typical “immovable object against an unstoppable force” scenario as neither of these sides are a juggernaut in any one area of the game but hopefully it is FC Ryukyu that snaps their unfortunate streak while pushing themselves slightly higher in the table at the expense of Machida Zelvia.
Weather Forecast
Mostly cloudy with 25% chance of rain and slight breeze. Comfortable.
Machida Zelvia
Zelvia’s unfortunate situation at home this season is their problem and not FC Ryukyu’s. Zelvia have either failed to score against their opponent at home, or have lost the lead later in matches 12 out of 16 times this season (75%). In fact, they’ve only come back twice to earn a favorable result (draw) at home. FC Ryukyu displayed a “never give up” attitude versus Yamagata and if Zelvia switch off for any bit of time tomorrow then FC Ryukyu will make them pay for that transgression.
Machida’s last 5 results are: 3-0 win against Okayama on the road, 1-1 draws at home to JEF Chiba UTD and Omiya followed by an 0-2 loss to Kyoto away from home and a 0-0 draw with Yokohama at home. It is hard to make heads or tails of this team when you see those results. On one hand, they’ve achieved some nice results against sides above them in the table. On the other, they’ve failed to score the past few weeks and do not present a massive challenge to any opponent.
Prior to the Okayama win, Zelvia didn’t win for roughly 2 months. A streak that many FC Ryukyu fans can relate to. However, FC Ryukyu were at least scoring goals in their defeats. Zelvia have been shutout in 14 of their 33 games this season compared to that of FC Ryukyu who’ve only been blanked 6 times. You know, as I am writing this, I recall that Yamagata had inverse numbers compared to FC Ryukyu and that game ended very differently than I thought it would, perhaps I should stop here and move on.
FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu have emerged from a rough stretch of games that saw them only win 1 out of 9 games but now they have gone 3 games in a row with out a loss. A feat they haven’t been able to repeat since that remarkable run of games to begin the season. FC Ryukyu are 8 points clear of the drop zone and a win tomorrow, plus a loss by Tochigi to Ehime, would put Ryukyu 11 points clear with 8 games remaining. Meaning they would only need to see out 4 more matches at the current point total to guarantee safety.
I have harped on safety and staying in J2 all season and for some of you this may seem very pessimistic. I can understand, but the first year of any promoted team must always be about survival. Especially when you are a small club with limited resources. To FC Ryukyu’s credit, they have been able to scout, employ and sell some very talented players to their advantage the past few years. Hopefully they will become a “buyer” of talent compared to a “seller” in the future but for now, its Zelvia and Match Day 34. FC Ryukyu have a chance to send an opponent, who is near drowning, further down to the bottom of the table while simultaneously saving themselves and securing their survival.
That analogy may come across as brutal or harsh but it is simply reality. We fight for survival every day and the sport of football is no different. 3 points away from home would be massive and can be achieved with some quality play. Shinji is starting to come into his own back there and our attack looks so much more lethal than it has the past 5 months, give or take. Our defense has been our weakest link all season and there is no indications that will change for this match which means it is so important that our attack finish off drives with goals that can provide some breathing space to our back line and GK, whoever that is this weekend.
Player Injuries/Suspensions
Machida Zelvia: Not sure as the site I usually utilize is blocked while I am writing this entry from the Marriott resort here in Okinawa. Oh well, wouldn’t matter much anyways.
FC Ryukyu: The side should see the return of #20 Uesato at CDM after having served his 1 match ban for accumulating 5 yellow cards. The more concerning issue is that of GK Dany Carvajal and his health. He was absent from the Yamagata match and I hope for a speedy recovery and return to the FC Ryukyu lineup.
FC Ryukyu Keys to Victory
1. Play the exact same way against Zelvia as you did against Yamagata. Yamagata is a much more superior team than Zelvia but the road form factor has to be taken into account. With that said, demonstrate some poise, tact and tenacity like we did last week and a win is almost guaranteed.
2. Continue those penetrating runs by our attacking players coupled with the near precision passes emanating from the central midfield and/or wing backs. Yamada opened the scoring on one of these types of plays last week and FC Ryukyu nearly connected on 3 of these that could have led to more goals against Yamagata. Whatever has changed inside the club tactically has been for the better so continue to hammer these passes and good things will follow.
Match Prediction
A 2-1 FC Ryukyu loss is the likeliest of outcomes based on the form and statistics of both sides this season. But I am going the opposite direction and say that this game ends 1-1 with FC Ryukyu netting a late equalizer.
Conclusion
Though Zelvia have earned 14 of their 33 points this season at home compared to just 7 of 36 from FC Ryukyu on the road, this match presents a tremendous opportunity for FC Ryukyu to right the ship. This is one of 3, 6-point, swing matches facing FC Ryukyu over the next 4 weeks. We are in the crunch time period for teams to assert or save themselves with only 9 matches remaining and the points matter so much more now. I wish everyone safe travels who intend on traveling to see FC Ryukyu and leave you all with this sentiment.
It has been 183 days and 28 match days since Machida Zelvia last won at home. It has been 210 days and 32 match days since FC Ryukyu last won away from home. Something has to give (CHANGE!!).
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