Intro
FC Ryukyu look to end their 5-game losing streak this Saturday when they square off with V-Varen Nagasaki at the “Tapista.” FC Ryukyu limp into this matchup after having suffered their 5th consecutive loss which has also seen them lose 8 out of their last 9 games in all competitions. Nagasaki travel to Okinawa following 2 consecutive defeats in a row that has contributed to Varen’s recent form of losing 4 games in their last 6 matches. Much like last week, FC Ryukyu desperately need a positive result to stop this losing streak and to gain some distance between them and the relegation floor. As noted in previous entries, the teams below FC Ryukyu have been playing much better as of late and are closing the gap between them and FC Ryukyu. Will we see some of the new FC Ryukyu signings this week? Will we see an FC Ryukyu win? Something we haven’t seen in over a month.
Weather Forecast
Typhoon Lekima is leaving us with some rather terrible weather this Saturday but that should be of no surprise to any FC Ryukyu fan who lives on Okinawa. Rain is expected at every home match it seems as even though there was 0% chance of rain in the forecast the last home game, we ended up getting a little rain prior to kickoff. Well, it looks to be hot, wet and windy. Don’t you just love football?
V-Varen Nagasaki
As previously mentioned, Nagasaki are experiencing a dip in form themselves having lost 4-1 and 3-1 to Ehime FC and FC Gifu at home in consecutive weeks (not a great sign for FC Ryukyu as we’re targeting those games as winnable). Prior to those results, Nagasaki lost on the road to Mito 2-1 and then went on to defeat Kofu at home and Kagoshima on the road.
There were a couple of trends I saw in these matches: 1. Nagasaki would afford a lot of possession and opportunities to their opponent, 2. Nagasaki created very few chances of their own during these games and 3. Nagasaki almost seemed to rest their hopes on a “bend, don’t break” defense to the point where if the opponent failed to score, then Nagasaki would have a chance to win a tightly contested match with a low score line.
Maybe that means something or maybe it means nothing at all but these trends were pretty obvious during their past 5 games. Nagasaki have also brought in three J1 players during this transfer period and it looks as if Akino and Caesar will start in the Mid-Field with Ibarbo coming on late to spell one of the attacking forwards. Ibarbo will cause all sorts of issues for our defense late in the match and it will be interesting see what happens if there is a tight score line this Saturday.
FC Ryukyu
Since the start of June, 11 matches in total, FC Ryukyu have only managed 5 points out of a possible 33. That is 15% of the total amount of available points, a wining percentage of 9%, and positive outcome of 27%. Add in that FC Ryukyu have been outscored 11 to 29 during that stretch, suffered the aforementioned 5 consecutive losses, have lost 7 from the previous 8 J2 matches and now; you tell me, why is Higuchi still employed?
FC Gifu, Avispa Fukuoka, JEF United Chiba and Tochigi SC have all fired managers this season and yet FC Ryukyu continue to employ the services of an individual whose best days are well behind him. Higuchi’s refusal to change the system, questionable lineup selection and timing of substitutions all indicate that he is attempting to cover up a bullet wound with a Band-Aid.
There are 16 games remaining this season and FC Ryukyu need at least 14 more points to reach the relative safety mark of 42 points. Yet, Higuchi’s recent record indicates he will not get us close to that number. We need a serious change at manager to spark something with the players or risk sliding back down to the J3. Make no mistake, the teams beneath us in the table are playing much better and have reinforced themselves this transfer window. If you don’t believe me, watch their highlights and compare their tactics, game plans and results to that of FC Ryukyu.
FC Ryukyu have 8 home games remaining and 3 of them are this month. August (early Sep) is now the make or break part of the FC Ryukyu J2 season. Unfavorable results against a struggling Nagasaki side and lower teams FC Gifu and Kagoshima will be the death nail in the FC Ryukyu coffin.
Player Injuries
FC Ryukyu have back up GK # 23, Ishii out with what looks to be a broken nose or facial fracture that he picked up in practice this week. There may be more injuries this side is dealing with but the Ishii update is the one made public.
V-Varen Nagasaki have a couple of players out that were mainly used during their Levain Cup matches so their absence shouldn’t impact the normal starting 11 or bench reserves for Nagasaki tomorrow.
Keys to Victory for FC Ryukyu
1. Nagasaki’s tendency to allow their opponent large amounts of possession plays directly into the overall (current) strategy/strength of FC Ryukyu. FC Ryukyu prefer to have loads of possession and play out from the back (as if we’re Real Madrid or something) but FC Ryukyu need to capitalize on their opportunities. Nagasaki will try to hit FC Ryukyu on the counter and FC Ryukyu really need to light up the score board early and often tomorrow. If FC Ryukyu can do that, then Nagasaki may have no answer and FC Ryukyu could walk away with all 3 points.
2. Take some shots/chances from distance as the Nagasaki Goal Keeper seems to have trouble stopping these types of shots. Tokushige either looks stunned and will freeze in place, or, will make a mess of things back there when there are these types of shots. Another strange phenomenon but one that shouldn’t be underestimated as it plays into the fact that FC Ryukyu currently lack creativity down the middle so let loose a few shots from distance tomorrow.
3. We will surrender a goal tomorrow, the stats indicate as much, but let’s score more than 2.
Match Prediction
“The stats don’t lie” is the famous quote and with that said, a 2-1 defeat for FC Ryukyu is the likeliest of outcomes tomorrow. Painful as that may be, refer to the side-by-side table above for further evidence as to why this outcome is the preferred choice.
Conclusion
I am as nervous, if not more nervous, than most of you for this coming weekend. FC Ryukyu have only taken 6 points on the road this season with only one of those points occurring in the last 10 road matches. That means home points are vital for FC Ryukyu’s safety. Since FC Ryukyu lost the unbeaten record at home, this side has begun to suffer some serious defeats that has seen them tumble down the table while having their goal differential being blown apart along the way. As much as I’d love to see FC Ryukyu earn 10 points from their next 4 home games, expectations have to be managed and that means that we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
This is without a doubt, the worst it has been this year for this newly promoted club. Despite the best efforts by the players on the pitch, they are beaten well in advance of the game. They are simply being outmaneuvered tactically and out coached. Good luck boys. See you out there.
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